STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 15 June

[ozymandius]

Wednesday June 15, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 220 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 178 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 241 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1298
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 14, 2005

Dow... 10,547.57 +25.01 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq... 2,069.04 +0.08 (+0.00%)
S&P 500... 1,203.91 +3.09 (+0.26%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.13% +0.04 (+1.00%)
Gold future... 429.30 -1.80 (-0.42%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif - WEEKLY CHARTS

SUMMARY

Last week we said: "The divergences that have taken place coupled with the stalling at resistance suggests that next week we will get the test of the "zero line" by several of our indicators that we talked about in our daily reports. However, we do not expect a violation of support. In fact, we would be looking for support to hold in order to add some long positions."

(Current) There are three important points to be made, given the price action of the last two weeks.

a) The indices failed to get above resistance for the second consecutive week, and most indicators are declining, which implies that some additional weakness is quite possible this week.

b) The Quantifiers are testing the zero line for the first time since the rally started. If the advance of the last few weeks represents the beginning of a new intermediate term advance, the Quantifiers ought not to fall below -10 for more than a couple of days. However, if the rally of the last few weeks represents the "last gasp" of the intermediate term advance that started in the fall of 2004, the Quantifiers will fall below -10, they will remain negative for several days, if not weeks, and the indices will break below their first support level.

c) The preferred position according to our three trend centric timing indicators is cash by a margin of 5 to 1 (see table below).

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. Today's Reports:

Jun 15	8:30 AM	Business Inventories	Apr	-	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	-	
Jun 15	8:30 AM	Core CPI		May	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	-	
Jun 15	8:30 AM	CPI			May	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%	-	
Jun 15	8:30 AM	NY Empire State Index	Jun	11.6	3.0	1.0	-11.1	-	
Jun 15	9:15 AM	Capacity Utilization	May	-	79.3%	79.3%	79.2%	-	
Jun 15	9:15 AM	Industrial Production	May	-	0.2%	0.2%	-0.2%	-	
Jun 15	2:00 PM	Fed's Beige Book	-	-	-	-	-	-

(running late today - will get a dollar watch soon)

[UpInArms]

3. reports are in:

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. APRIL INVENTORIES-SALES RATIO FALLS TO 1.30

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. MAY CPI ENERGY PRICES DOWN 2.0%

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. MAY CPI CORE UP 2.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. MAY CPI UP 2.8% YEAR-ON-YEAR

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. MAY CORE CPI UP 0.1% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. MAY CPI FIRST DECLINE SINCE JULY 2004

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. APRIL BUSINESS SALES UP 1.2%

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. MAY CPI DOWN 0.1% VS UP 0.1% EXPECTED

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. APRIL RETAIL INVENTORIES UP 0.2%

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. APRIL BUSINESS INVENTORIES RISE 0.3%, AS EXPECTED

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. JUNE EMPIRE STATE INDEX 11.7 VS. -11.1 IN MAY

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. JUNE EMPIRE STATE INDEX ABOVE CONSENSUS 3.9

8:30am 06/15/05 U.S. JUNE EMPIRE STATE EMPLOYMENT INDEX 5.6 VS 0.1 MAY

[UpInArms]

4. U.S. June Empire State index rebounds to 11.7

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38518.3544531944-836733848&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area posted a stronger-than-expected rebound in June, reversing most of the decline seen since March, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Wednesday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 11.7 in June from -11.1 in May. Readings over zero indicate expansion. Economists were expecting the index to rebound to about 3.9 in June.

[ozymandius]

5. Last month's sharp decline was ignored.

Let's see what this information brings today.

[ozymandius]

7. This is not being ignored. But there's a curious reflection on futures.

9:17AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.5. Futures trade holds relatively steady, following another batch of economic data... May industrial production has checked in at 0.4%, slightly above consensus, while capacity utilization of 79.4% - below the potentially dangerous 80% level historically consistent with bottlenecks and rising pricing pressures - has basically matched expectations

[ozymandius]

6. 9:35 markets are open for giving you the bidness

Dow 10,586.70 +39.13 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,078.90 +9.86 (+0.48%)
S&P 500 1,207.91 +4.00 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 41.27 0.00 (0.00%)
NYSE Volume 53,667,000
Nasdaq Volume 71,755,000

[converted_democrat]

8. Hi UIA and Ozzy...........Anyone else see this? Sorry wrong link. fixed..

I find it interesting. It isn't against the law to have a great financial adviser, but this is a little suspect.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1549342

[ozymandius]

11. If they were in another profession - this would be insider trading.

And Eliot Spitzer would be headed for Washington to light up a few butts.

[RawMaterials]

9. Poole: Low long-term rates no puzzle

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- All of the fuss on Wall Street about low long-term interest rates despite steady Fed tightening is misplaced, said William Poole, the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve bank.

In a speech prepared for delivery to the Money Marketeers in New York City, Poole said low rates simply reflect an unchanging view in the market about Fed policy and the economy.

In fact, economic data over the past year has come in about as expected, he said.

Likely Fed responses to the data were also well known in advance and in the absence of economic surprises, FOMC decisions on the funds rate were much as expected.

"Thus there was no particular reason over this period for the market to revise its expectations of future interest rates continuously in one direction. The bond rate fluctuated in response to arriving information, but ended up about where it started," Poole said.

The St. Louis Fed president, a former academic, said his views are based on the "expectations theory" of the structure of interest rates. He said longer-term rates are a weighted average of the short-term interest rates expected to prevail over the life of the bond."

Poole's comments suggests that he disagrees with Fed chief Alan Greenspan, who has called the behavior of long-term rates this year "a condundrum" that defies most explanations. See full story.

Poole did not discuss current economic conditions except to say "the current outlook for the economy is quite favorable."

Fed officials have seemed reluctant to discuss the economy or monetary policy in great depth since Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher told CNBC earlier this month that the Fed was in the "eighth inning" of its interest rate cycle. Read Fisher's comments.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B4B5B05FE%2DAC42%2D48DB%2DB75D%2D236F39140044%7D

[RawMaterials]

10. Housing bubble blip

Annual appreciation rate under 10% for first time since December 1999


San Diego County's proverbial housing-price bubble lost a little air last month as the annual appreciation rate slipped below the 10 percent level for the first time in nearly six years.

Locally based DataQuick Information Systems reported the overall median home price rose to $488,000, up 7.5 percent from May 2004. That was the lowest appreciation rate since December 1999, when the year-over-year increase stood at 4.4 percent and the median was $215,000.

snip..

A year ago, things were dramatically different.

Year-over-year medians were consistently running about 30 percent higher each month. Listings were going into escrow within a couple of weeks, if not a few days, and a low inventory of unsold homes prompted bidding wars among buyers.

Today it's taking 48 days on average for a single-family-resale listing to go into escrow, compared with 26 days last year, according to figures compiled by the San Diego Association of Realtors. Resale condos have slowed even more, selling within 16 days a year ago versus 44 days last month.

snip..

But University of San Diego economist Alan Gin said he was not ready to declare the housing bubble had burst or even that the bubble was deflating.

"Air continues to go into the bubble, but at a slower pace," he said. "We'd have to see some negative drops in housing prices before you could say the bubble is deflating."

snip..

But signs of buyer remorse may be looming ahead, based on the type of mortgages buyers are choosing. DataQuick said 82.4 percent of San Diego County buyers in May chose adjustable-rate mortgages, about double the rate five years ago.

Economist Gin said adjustable-rate mortgage borrowers who bought five years ago should have no problem refinancing because of equity growth. But today's first-time buyers who have to stretch their personal finances to qualify for a loan for even the most modest house or condo invariably must settle for an adjustable loan.

"That's potentially a little bit dangerous if interest rates rise," he said, especially if the lowest-priced, one-year mortgage rates bounce upward after just 12 months. "Some people just barely got in, and they could be squeezed as a result."


http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20050615-9999-1b15housing.html

[ozymandius]

12. Happy feelings gone.

11:21
Dow 10,522.56 -25.01 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,059.39 -9.65 (-0.47%)
S&P 500 1,201.21 -2.70 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 41.22 -0.05 (-0.12%)

NYSE Volume 654,048,000
Nasdaq Volume 649,101,00

11:00AM: Market spikes to session lows as oil prices surpass $56/bbl following disappointing oil inventories data... The EIA has reported a larger than expected 1.78 mln barrel decline in crude oil supplies (consensus -1.0 mln) and an unexpected draw in gasoline inventories of 905K barrels, versus an expected increase of 675K barrels...

Even in the face of OPEC's fifth quota increase over the last 12 months - by 500K to 28 mln barrels a day - crude oil futures have now risen to a seven-week high near $56.50/bbl (+$1.50)... XOI +0.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1246/1720, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1055/1650

10:30AM: Major indices back off their best levels, spearheaded by renewed selling pressure in technology... Within the last 30 minutes, the Semi Index (+0.7%) has turned negative, due in large part to a 2.1% decline in Marvell Technology (MRVL 38.66 -0.82), which was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, and weakness in bellwether Intel (INTC 26.59 -0.11)... Also taking some steam out of the influential tech sector has been weakness in Disk Drive and reports that IT hardware spending could be hurt by weaker European economies... NYSE Adv/Dec 1456/1385, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1300/1290

[ozymandius]

14. Stocks trade lower as oil prices jump

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks turned lower Wednesday as a spike in oil prices following a fall in weekly crude supplies offset a round of solid economic data and better-than-expected earnings from Bear Stearns.

The economic news was a little bit better than expected but the market seems to be wanting other catalysts," said Robert Pavlik, portfolio manager at Oaktree Asset Management. "But stocks do look positive. It's just we're in a holding pattern."

On the broader market, decliners outpaced advancers by an 18 to 11 score on the New York Stock Exchange, and by a two to one margin on the Nasdaq.

more...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC447D583%2D9202%2D40C4%2D9A8D%2DF80EA1335A22%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

[ozymandius]

13. All Currencies Beginning To Sink?

A wise acquaintance of mine, Clyde Harrison, is fond of saying that fiat currencies do not float; they just sink at different rates. How can all fiat currencies sink? If dollar is appreciating vs. the euro, the euro is sinking, but the dollar is floating higher, isn't it? Yes, it is floating higher vs. the euro, but they both might be sinking. How's that? Consider what has been happening of late to the price of gold - both in dollar and euro terms. Today, the euro price of gold hit its highest level since the inception of the euro of 356 euros per ounce of gold. Well, that's to be expected, isn't it, given that the euro has been depreciating against the dollar? And, wouldn't we then expect that the price of gold in dollar terms would be falling? That's what is suggested by the data in Chart 1. In the past 15 years, there has been a large negative correlation, minus 0.78, between the value of the dollar vs. the euro and the dollar price of gold. As the dollar rose against the euro, the dollar price of gold tended to fall.



Now, a couple of weeks do not define a trend reversal, but it is interesting that of late, the dollar has been rising against the euro and so, too, has the dollar price of gold (see Chart 2). In other words, both the euro and the dollar are sinking - sinking against the dollar. Could it be that global investors are becoming disenchanted with fiat currencies of all stripes?

..short editorial with interesting charts..

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/kasriel061405.html

[ozymandius]

15. Redstone (Viacom): World has changed

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Viacom Chairman Sumner Redstone said in an interview after the market closed Tuesday that he's splitting the company into two separate publicly traded companies because the era of media conglomerates may be over.

Viacom, which owns CBS and MTV among other properties, announced it was splitting its cable and broadcasting operations Tuesday. See full story.

Redstone denied that the split had anything to do with wanting to retain both of his co-chief operating officers, Tom Freston and Les Moonves, rather than choose one of them to be CEO of Viacom as a single company.

"I've been lucky. I have two great, creative executives," he said. "But I would never do a major transaction like this for personnel reasons. That's ridiculous.

more...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA8191F80%2D3D76%2D47A3%2DA606%2D1D9CCD54656D%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

[Name removed]

27. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[RawMaterials]

16. China Is Said to Consider $15 Billion Bailout of Stock Market

SHANGHAI, June 14 - The Chinese government is considering creating a $15 billion fund to help bail out the nation's ailing stock market, according to a senior government official and people told of the proposal.

The creation of a huge fund to invest in mainland stocks would be the government's most striking effort yet to prop up share prices and try to restore confidence in a market that has fallen to its lowest level in about eight years.

The proposal comes at a time when China's economy is sizzling hot, but the nation's Communist Party leadership is struggling to fix a stock market that has been broken for several years.

snip..

Some Chinese officials say they are motivated in part from fears that huge and mounting investor losses could also create social discontent among the millions of people who began buying shares in the early to mid-1990's, when stock prices were climbing.

While it is not clear whether China's leadership will ultimately approve the bailout proposal, expectations that the government is about to act helped lift share prices last week in one of the biggest one-day rallies in three years.

If the $15 billion investment fund were created, the size of the fund would represent about one-tenth of the current value of the stock market's floating, tradeable shares. But some analysts say that turning to a bailout fund could make the situation worse by encouraging investors to sell more of their stocks, saddling the government with huge additional losses.

"If the government really wants to do something they should try some other measures instead of simply pouring more capital into the market," said Qian Qimin, a senior analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo, a brokerage house based in Shanghai.

more..


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/15/business/worldbusiness/15yuan.html?


Isn't privatizing SS simply "pouring more capital into the market" ??

[RawMaterials]

17. 12:20 Market Update and Blather

Dow 10506.45 -41.12 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 2054.24 -14.80 (-0.72%)
S&P 500 1199.84 -4.07 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.123% -0.04

NYSE Volume 866,655,000
Nasdaq Volume 841,918,000


12:00PM : Market remains under pressure midday, as early gains spurred by comforting economic data are offset by surging oil prices and rising bond yields... Earlier, investors received further validation that the Fed's current pace of rate hikes should be nearing its end, as May CPI fell 0.1% (consensus +0.1%) - for the first time since last July - and core-CPI checked in at just 0.1% (consensus +0.2%)...

Eased inflation fears have also been accompanied by rebounds in regional manufacturing - the NY Empire Index rose to 11.7 in June (from -11.1 in May) - and May industrial production, which rose 0.4% (consensus +0.2%) versus a downwardly revised April read of -0.3%... However, a 2.8% surge in oil prices ($56.60/bbl +$1.60) amid disappointing inventories data and an expected 500K OPEC quota increase has so far stalled early follow-through buying interest and left only two out of ten economic sectors in positive territory... To that end, Energy has paced the way higher after crude oil supplies fell a larger than anticipated 1.78 mln barrels (consensus -1.0 mln) and gasoline inventories unexpectedly fell to 905K barrels (consensus +675K)...

Also getting a lift from a weaker dollar, with particular strength coming from steel and aluminum, has been the Materials sector... Technology, however, remains the most influential leader to the downside due in large part to a 1.5% sell-off in Semiconductor and weakness in hardware... A UBS downgrade on Marvell Technology (MRVL 38.50 -0.98) has pressured chip stocks while reports that IT hardware spending could be hurt by weaker European economies has also weighed on tech... Interest-rate sensitive areas like Financial and Utilities have also been weak, losing ground amid widespread weakness in the Treasury market...

Bonds have been weak all morning amid a combination of positive economic data and disappointing TICS data, as the 10-year note is off 4 ticks to yield 4.12%... Losses in biotech and drug have prevented Health Care from extending yesterday's modest gains while downside Q2 and FY05 guidance from Illinois Tool Works (ITW 80.99 -1.42) has weighed on the Industrials sector...DJTA -0.2, DJUA -0.8, DOT -1.2, Nasdaq 100 -0.9, Russell 2000 -0.4, SOX -1.5, S&P Midcap 400 -0.4, XOI +0.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 1340/1770, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1161/1705

11:30AM : Indices back off recent lows, following upbeat comments from President Bush on Energy, but stocks still trade in negative territory... However, while Bush has said, "We must take action now on causes of rising oil prices and be aggressive in finding alternative fuel sources," oil prices have only pulled back modestly, providing little enthusiasm for a more aggressive recovery effort... NYSE Adv/Dec 1265/1778, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1099/1703

[ozymandius]

18. 1:01 numbers

Dow 10,517.19 -30.38 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,057.08 -11.96 (-0.58%)
S&P 500 1,200.73 -3.18 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 41.26 -0.01 (-0.02%)
NYSE Volume 980,576,000
Nasdaq Volume 949,29

[Roland99]

19. Dow without GM?

http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/15/news/fortune500/dow_gm/index.htm?cnn=yes

I didn't realize McDonald's market value is almost *double* GM's!

[ozymandius]

20. 1:59 check-in and blather

Dow 10,521.65 -25.92 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,058.94 -10.10 (-0.49%)
S&P 500 1,201.50 -2.41 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 41.37 +0.10 (+0.24%)
NYSE Volume 1,144,635,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,102,129,000

1:30PM: More of the same for equities, as selling remains widespread across most areas... Bucking the bearish bias, however, have been Energy and Materials... While rising oil prices has provided the bulk of buying interest in the former, selling pressure in the dollar has underpinned support for both sectors... The dollar has fallen for the first time in five sessions against the euro (1.2106) after the Treasury Dept. posted its monthly TICS capital flow data for April...

The report has shown that international investors bought $47.4 bln in dollar-denominated assets, well below expectations of around $70.0 bln, suggesting that the real "soft patch" during March and April was in net capital flows, not in the U.S. economy... Separately, the Fed will release its Beige Book at 14:00 ET...NYSE Adv/Dec 1496/1686, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1264/1676

1:00PM: Stocks improve their stance somewhat, getting a lift from a recovery effort in financial... Brokerage stocks (XBD +0.1%), in focus all morning following better than expected Q2 earnings from Bear Stearns (BSC 101.50 +1.17) and ahead of an anticipated strong report from Goldman Sachs (GS 99.50 +1.20) tomorrow, have recently turned positive... Banks (BKX +0.4%) have also shown relative strength, getting a boost from a 3.4% surge in shares of Golden West Financial (GDW 63.50 +2.08), which grew its mortgage origination business 6.0% last month...NYSE Adv/Dec 1446/1706, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1225/1680

[RawMaterials]

21. Tighter leash on Freddie, Fannie urged

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The Bush administration and some Republican leaders in Congress are pushing for tighter regulation on mortgage financing firms Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, according to a published report.

The Wall Street Journal also reported Wednesday that the administration and leading Republicans in both the House and Senate want to take out a provision in current legislative language calling for the firms to spend millions on affordable housing programs.

snip..

But the affordable housing funds and the two firms also have support in Congress, according to the report. Some members of Congress are reluctant to support any moves seen as hurting the housing market at a time when there is increasing concern about a housing-price bubble.

Partly because of Fannie and Freddie, "we have the strongest, most dynamic housing market in the world," Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Michigan Democrat, said at a Senate Banking Committee hearing in April.


http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/15/real_estate/freddie_fannie/index.htm

[RawMaterials]

22. Can Saudi Arabia keep its promise to pump more oil?

Don’t look for big headlines out of OPEC’s regular meeting in Vienna to discuss oil production: there’s not really much to discuss.

With global oil demand undeterred by a $50-a-barrel price tag, oil producers are pumping as fast as they can. So the semi-annual haggling over output quotas — ordinarily the gathering’s main event — is all but irrelevant.

snip..

“We’ve had an illusion for the last 40 years that there was so much oil in the Middle East that it would never run out,” Simmons said in a recent interview. “What I’m offering is evidence. And all the optimists are offering is hope.”

Simmons arrived at his assertions after a two-year review of hundreds of technical papers written by Saudi geologists and petroleum engineers. At the center of his argument is that the Saudis are relying heavily on just a handful of prolific oil fields that are now rapidly aging — with little evidence that new, untapped fields are waiting in the wings. To maintain production levels at those few, aging oil fields, Simmons writes, increasing amounts of water have to be pumped into the ground to force oil to the surface. “The picture that emerges,” he writes, “undermines the optimistic but unsubstantiated claims of Saudi officialdom.”

snip..
Despite the recent surge in prices, demand for oil continues to grow — especially from rapidly developing economies in China and India. Global demand is currently about 84 million barrels per day and growing by about 2 to 3 percent a year, which means another 2 million barrels a day or so will be needed by next year. If demand growth continues, even higher levels of daily production will be needed to meet that demand. If production fails to meet demand, oil-consuming nations face the prospect of even higher oil prices, shortages or both.

So where will the added production of millions of barrels a day come from? With all other OPEC members producing at capacity, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest producer, is widely believed to be the best hope for meeting increased demand. (Russia, the world’s second-largest producer, will be able to add a few hundred thousand barrels at day at best over the next few years, according to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.)

Saudi officials say they’re ready to boost production from current levels of 9.5 million barrels per day by drawing on some 1.5 million barrels per day of surplus capacity. And they’ve pledged to boost that capacity another 1.5 million — to 12.5 million barrels per day — by 2009. The kingdom’s oil minister said last month that production levels of 12.5 million to 15 million barrels per day can be sustained for up to 50 years.

But Simmons says a review of technical reports written by Saudi geologists and petroleum engineers paints a very different picture. These reports, he writes, detail massive injections of water needed just to sustain current levels of production. That process eventually causes an oil field to “water up,” he writes, as the injected water bypasses oil and supplants it in producing oil wells. When that happens, he writes, overall production levels can fall rapidly.

snip..

Simmons also writes that the Saudi’s massive Ghawar oil field — which accounts for more than half of total production — is more than 40 years old, and he argues that the most productive areas already have been tapped. The past four decades of technical papers also show little evidence of promising new oil fields, according to Simmons. And past Saudi promises to boost output haven’t been backed up by actual oil shipments, he says.

“My guess is they're probably struggling to maintain 8 to 8.5 million a day of production and saying they’re doing 9.5 (million),” he said.

If Simmons' assertions are correct, the world faces an energy crunch at least as significant as the oil shocks of the 1970s. Alternative energy sources are beginning to play a significant role. But most analysts and industry experts concede it will take at least a decade before renewable sources like solar, wind or bio fuels make a significant dent in global energy demand. Even then, most of these alternative sources are being used to produce electricity; oil is primarily used as a transportation fuel, for which there are no readily available substitutes.



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8217587/

[ozymandius]

23. 2:52 - breaking above the waterline

Dow 10,552.18 +4.61 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,066.50 -2.54 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,204.78 +0.87 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 41.28 +0.01 (+0.02%)

NYSE Volume 1,358,252,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,279,795,000

2:30PM: Buyers show some resolve following the recent release of the Fed's Beige Book... At the top of the hour, the Fed released its Beige Book to be used at the June 29-30 FOMC meeting, which noted expansion in all 12 districts as labor markets improved and price pressures were moderate... However, while the market has rebounded somewhat, not even further confirmation of eased inflation worries amid ongoing expansion has been enough to lift the indices into positive territory... NYSE Adv/Dec 1555/1661, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1316/1656

[DoBotherMe]

24. KICK n/t

[TrogL]

25. Loonie Watch

http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Up-to-the-minute graph (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDY&v=i)

Current TSE:




2005-05-16 Monday, May 16 0.787216 USD
2005-05-17 Tuesday, May 17 0.78964 USD
2005-05-18 Wednesday, May 18 0.792519 USD
2005-05-19 Thursday, May 19 0.791954 USD
2005-05-20 Friday, May 20 0.791954 USD
2005-05-23 Monday, May 23 0.795039 USD
2005-05-24 Tuesday, May 24 0.792896 USD
2005-05-25 Wednesday, May 25 0.791077 USD
2005-05-26 Thursday, May 26 0.788644 USD
2005-05-27 Friday, May 27 0.794597 USD
2005-05-30 Monday, May 30 0.794597 USD
2005-05-31 Tuesday, May 31 0.799233 USD
2005-06-01 Wednesday, June 1 0.80186 USD
2005-06-02 Thursday, June 2 0.801732 USD
2005-06-03 Friday, June 3 0.801089 USD
2005-06-06 Monday, June 6 0.803406 USD
2005-06-07 Tuesday, June 7 0.80186 USD
2005-06-08 Wednesday, June 8 0.803859 USD
2005-06-09 Thursday, June 9 0.796876 USD
2005-06-10 Friday, June 10 0.800512 USD
2005-06-13 Monday, June 13 0.795039 USD
2005-06-14 Tuesday, June 14 0.796559 USD
2005-06-15 Wednesday, June 15 0.806647 USD




Sorry I haven't done a loonie watch in quite awhile, it's been utter chaos at work.

The loonie has quietly been gaining ground lost since last March (see the 120 day charts in the link below). I'm not sure what caused today's gains except last night's adventures in democracy when the Liberals survived over a dozen non-confidence motions. Rising oil prices could also be a factor.

[RawMaterials]

26. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10566.37 +18.80 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 2074.92 +5.88 (+0.28%)
S&P 500 1206.58 +2.67 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.115% -0.12

NYSE Volume 1,825,818,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,672,671,000


Close: Even though the major indices traded in negative territory throughout most of the session, modest consolidation in oil futures and improved bond yields renewed late-day buying efforts, helping investors embrace upbeat economic reports and close seven out of ten economic sectors in positive territory... While yesterday's better than expected core-PPI figure mitigated inflation fears, today's encouraging core CPI - a better gauge of underlying inflation - further validated the possibility of an end to Fed tightening sooner rather than later...

The overall May CPI surprisingly fell for the first time in nearly a year, declining 0.1% versus an expected rise of 0.1%, while core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food costs, rose just 0.1% (consensus +0.2%)... Also providing some support for stocks were rebounds in regional manufacturing activity, as evidenced in the NY Empire State Index which rose to 11.7 in June (from -11.1 in May), and May industrial production, which rose 0.4% (consensus +0.2%)...

Meanwhile, the release of the Fed's Beige Book to be used at the June 29-30 FOMC meeting failed to surprise the market, but noted expansion in all 12 districts, as labor markets improved and price pressures were moderate, coupled with consolidation in oil prices and late-day loss paring in Treasurys helped improve sentiment into the close... Crude oil futures ($55.57/bbl +$0.57) had surged as much as 3.1% intra-day, amid reports that OPEC agreed to boost daily production quotas by 500K barrels and disappointing inventories data... The EIA showed a larger than expected 1.78 mln barrel decline in crude oil supplies (consensus -1.0 mln) and an unexpected draw in gasoline stockpiles of 905K barrels, versus a forecasted build of 675K barrels...

Despite the pullback in oil prices, Energy still paced the way higher while the Materials sector, also getting a boost from dollar weakness, benefited from oversold conditions in commodities like steel and aluminum... The greenback fell for the first time in five sessions against the euro (1.2106) after the Treasury Dept. posted its monthly TICS capital flow data for April...

The report showed that international investors bought $47.4 bln in dollar-denominated assets, well below expectations of around $70.0 bln, suggesting that the real "soft patch" during March and April was in net capital flows, not in the U.S. economy... The data also had a negative impact on the benchmark 10-year note, which was off as much as 10 ticks before closing down just 2 ticks to yield 4.11%... Even though weakness in the Treasury market lifted yields on the 10-year note to as much as 4.14%, Financial showed some resilience into the close... Providing support was strength in Bear Stearns (BSC 101.19 +0.86), which handily beat analysts' Q2 expectations, and a 3.8% surge in Golden West Financial (GDW 63.73 +2.31), which reported 6.0% growth in its mortgage origination business last month...

Technology was also a bright spot, as upbeat comments out of Morgan Stanley about Apple Computer (AAPL 37.05 +1.05), boosted PC growth forecasts from Smith Barney and a turnaround in Semiconductor also lent support... Health Care, however, was the most influential leader to the downside, amid downside FY05 guidance from Chiron (CHIR 35.45 -2.50), after the biotech said it produce fewer FLUVIRIN vaccine doses than earlier anticipated, and continued profit-taking in HMOs... Utilities, a market leader of late, also closed lower, failing to shrug off rising bond yields...DJTA +0.5, DJUA -0.4, DOT +0.3, Nasdaq 100 +0.3, Russell 2000 +0.4, SOX +0.4, S&P Midcap 400 +0.3, XOI +0.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 1927/1329, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1705/1316