STOCK MARKET WATCH, WEDNESDAY OCT 8....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Wednesday October 8, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 474
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 324
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 299 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 357 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 199
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 683
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 7, 2003

Dow... 9,654.61 +59.63 (+0.62%)
Nasdaq... 1,907.85 +14.39 (+0.76%)
S&P 500.... 1,039.25 +4.90 (+0.47%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.24% +0.09 (+2.24%)
Gold future... 377.80 +4.50 (+1.21%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

"Crossroads"

In my first article for Financial Sense on 9-2-03, I commented about the high momentum readings the rally had generated by saying:

"...Next I would like to discuss two other indicators that allow us to take a rather comprehensive look under the surface. The first one is a momentum indicator designed to measure the collective momentum of the components that make up a market index. The problem with capitalization weighted indexes is that, just a handful of stocks can influence--in a rather disproportional way--the performance of the index they are a part of, which in turn distorts the true technical picture. This indicator uses the mean value of the daily momentum readings for every one of the 100 stocks that make up the NDX. Therefore, it is truly inclusive of all the stocks that make up this index and it allows us to see whether the strength/weakness of the index is accurately reflecting the strength/weakness of its individual components, as it should.

<cut>
So, given the action of the last five weeks, is the rally that we had so far only the "first leg" of another intermediate term advance or the terminal phase of the rally that started in March?

some very technical writing here, posted de rigeur

[Maeve]

2. An early good morning!

Might as well give up all semblance of sanity and go with the flow--appearance over substance and everyone in the handbasket for a nice ride! (I am appalled at California, can you tell??)

UpInArms will be posting this, I'm sure, but the dollar is within a cent of its all-time low against the euro, and near its three-year low against the yen.Story

Futures are about even, having been down most of the night.

[ozymandius]

3. A happy post-constitutional coup morning to you too Maeve.

My wife, a native Californian, asked me how the election went about 20 minutes ago. I said, "Say hello to Governor Schwarzenegger."

She said, "Typical. Disgusting."

I said, "He'll just be a one-termer." She said, "If that."

Anyway, with smart anti-Arnold family in LA and the SF area, the feeling is that the allure will wear off quickly. This was more a vote against Gray Davis than it was a vote for Gov. Groper.

EDIT: This never would have happened if Davis did not have a (D) by his name.

[JNelson6563]

5. I share your horror fellow Marketeers

That bloodless coup of 2000 is still reverberating. Democracy is experiencing serious blows. I agree if Davis were R this wouldn't have happened.

The one good thing about this is that the GOP can never run a hate campaign against another Dem for sex. hahahaha They have castrated themselves in this respect. Rendered themselves impotent in a way that all the viagra in the world cannot help. Fools. If there is one thing we can always count on the R's for it's short-sightedness. Think term-limits.

On to the markets. I missed Alcoa's #'s last night. Anyone know how their quarterly earnings went? I saw dollar info, man this could get ugly. Also saw good article posted by UpInArms about folks selling their homes at a loss just to get out from under crushing mortgage payments. Can't get what they owe on it.

We have a bankruptcy lawyer on our executive board of our local party. He sadly reports business is booming. I see it here in our paper. Lots of late model SUV's for sale, McMansions sitting on market long, long time and more foreclosure notices than I've seen in the 13 years I've lived here. If it is hitting our insulated little burg it's hitting bigger places harder. Ouch.

I would worry about these things but our Dear Leader tells me it's all good. Thankfully. :eyes:

More later--
Julie

[trogdor]

19. bloodless coup? Try Cold Civil War.

We just lost a major battle. I wonder where Johnny Reb is planning to strike next.

[UpInArms]

7. daily dollar watch

yes, Maeve, that is the dollar's tale today - but the Forbes story goes a bit further http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2003/10/08/rtr1102536.html

"Everyone hates the dollar," said Lee Ferridge, head of global currency strategy at Rabobank.

"There's a view going around that the stronger U.S. growth actually hurts the current account more so therefore it's negative for the dollar.... Everyone is one-way (on the dollar) and when everyone is one-way, it really happens."

and I really love the spin that goes along with it

The dollar fell within a cent of this year's all- time lows against the euro early Wednesday as investors hounded it lower on the growing belief that it will have to weaken to help correct the U.S. current account deficit.

does this mean that we have to print lots of dollars so that we pay off our debts with worthless paper?

and here are the numbers we've all be waiting for

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 91.80 Change -0.09 (-0.10%)

there is a BoJ meeting on Thursday - we'll see if they decide to intervene http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/10/08/rtr1102697.html

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9


N/A - BANK OF JAPAN POLICY MEETING, Tokyo

BOJ begins two-day Policy Board meeting. The yen's recent

surge to near three-year highs against the dollar is a

source of worry to BOJ policy makers, but not enough to

prompt further loosening of already hyper-easy monetary

policy, analysts say. For preview, click on

[ozymandius]

8. "Everyone hates the dollar"

Has there ever been quantifiable reasons why the dollar is doing so badly among currency traders?

I know that much of it has to do with our trade deficit in that huge imbalances make the greenback worth less. What else?

[JNelson6563]

9. everybody hates us

Here are a few reasons to ponder; Bush, Cheney, Rummy, Wolfie, Condor etc.

Let's just hope the foreign interests who hold so much of our debt don't decide to crush us like a bug.

Julie

[UpInArms]

12. why is the dollar hated?

imo there are a couple of reasons -

who wants to hold an "asset" that loses its value?

the dollar is not tied to metals in value, so the price of those has little bearing on the value of the dollar - metals are generally viewed as a "safe haven" investment and my thoughts about those are a whole other topic.

So, back to the dollar. If there is nothing that actually represents its value, its value is based on "good will" or "faith" in the actual product.

If there is no or little "good will," then the dollar will decrease in value. It is merely another piece of paper, printed by an advertising agency. What is it selling?

So you have to look at the underlying assets of the agency (the USofA) and see if there is a valid reason for investing in dollar assets.

Are our corporations honorable and productive?

What is the upside of holding the dollar?

What is the downside of holding the dollar?

When viewed objectively, the dollar represents the means to repay debt. Our debt and continuing deficits undermine the dollar's value.

[ze_dscherman]

17. Mixed feelings about the dollar in Euroland

I'm working for a company heavily reliant on exporting goods priced in US$. The dollars weakness is bad news to us.

It is seen as a grave danger on the recovery of European (and also Japanese) exporting industries. A weak dollar will also give advantages to American exporters. But consensus here is that due to the U.S. trade and state deficits the Dollar will have to loose quite some value.

[ozymandius]

4. Home Loan Applications Rise

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Total applications for mortgage loans in the United States rose last week despite a slight rise in mortgage rates, according to an industry survey.

But, while requests for home loan refinancings are up, economists don't see this as the start of another massive refinancing wave similar to the one seen this summer. That is because U.S. interest rates have risen in recent days on signs the U.S. economy may be on better footing.

story

[JNelson6563]

6. You gotta wonder

is this the remains of the fence-sitters? Rates were going up, now they go back down a bit, are they thinking this is their last chance?

With the massive debt burdens and the budding trend of selling homes for less than is owed I gotta wonder about that.

We'll see how it all plays out I guess.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

10. Here we go

9:39 and a weak start:


Dow 9,642.69 -11.92 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,910.91 +3.06 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 1,038.05 -1.20 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.271% +0.027

Which way will it go today?

Julie

[Maeve]

11. Ten minutes in and mixed

Dow 9,642.09 -12.52 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,910.63 +2.78 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,037.92 -1.33 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.273% +0.029

And I'll catch up with y'all later--got a meeting to go to!

[realFedUp]

13. Is it out of the question to sell everything today?

I don't see this country working anymore as
a democracy..do we sell all stocks or wait?

[ozymandius]

14. Ooh - loaded question

I imagine that as a fascist plutocracy, stocks would do quite well. Because when you have a merger of government and corporate power combined with politicians only interested in the issues important to the wealthiest private citizens then the stock market will stand to benefit. Of course then you have to weigh this notion against the hollow benefits of owning Enron-like stock.

[ozymandius]

15. Redness at 11:04 and my final check for the day

Dow 9,620.98 -33.63 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 1,893.28 -14.57 (-0.76%)
S&P 500 1,033.54 -5.71 (-0.55%)
10-Yr Bond 4.265% +0.021

[Coventina]

16. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hello everyone,

I am also shaking my head over California. I really thought that the smart people would be able to pull it out, but I guess there are just too many dumb ones out there. To California DUers, don't worry, this too shall pass. If we Arizonans could survive Evan Mecham I'm sure you can survive Arnold.

Anyway,today's reading is ZENITH changing to PROSPERING. It seems like Zenith has been coming up a lot lately. Usually it is in a negative aspect, like today. "Obstacles not of your own making stand in the way of your progress. Although your position has been less than ideal, you will finally meet with the right elements to help you achieve your aim."

The appearance of Prospering today is a real hoot. Listen to this, "Many things will become possible as the wisest leaders move with ease into ruling positions." LOL! I know Ching can't mean Arnold.....maybe it is a prediction for 2004????????

Well, I am going to predict an up day for the markets. I just have a feeling that "the powers that be" want this to be a happy day.

[JNelson6563]

18. missed you lately

Hope allis well with you Coventina, intersting reading today as usual. I agree taht the powers that be would like this to be a good day but I don't know if it will work.

Julie

[revcarol]

20. Do ordinary investors really believe that the CA economy will revive

under Groper? (Will the world's sixth-largest economy revive?)So much purchasing looks to the future. Is the future really that rosy?

[amish]

21. ?

? didnt know

[JNelson6563]

23. nope

this morning I saw a muni bond trader from Cali and he said regardless of who is Gov their credit rating is stillnot so hot and that their muni bonds are stillnot a good investment. Too much risk.

And this from a guy who would benefit from pushing them.

Only those not in the know believe things are instantly better.

Julie

[mrsteve]

22. Good Afternoon all - 12:45 numbers

...and lots of red ink.

Dow 9,639.72 -14.89 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,900.16 -7.69 (-0.40%)
S&P 500 1,035.45 -3.80 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.236% -0.008

[JNelson6563]

24. good to see you Steve

1:32 and getting a bit worse:

Dow 9,622.16 -32.45 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 1,894.87 -12.98 (-0.68%)
S&P 500 1,033.61 -5.65 (-0.54%)
10-Yr Bond 4.234% -0.010

I'm off to take daughter to orthodontist, will check back in before close. Hope everyone's having a good day! :hi:

Julie

[mrsteve]

25. And here's a little Yahoo blather to go with those numbers.

Yahoo Finance Updates

"1:30PM: The indices are vacillating in negative territory... The gold sector has been among today's consistent top performers... Its strength is notable in the face of the $2.10 decline in the price of gold to $375.70/oz...
With the dollar at its 3-year low relative to the euro and the yen, investors are speculating that the greenback will stop sliding, especially given the commitment of the Bush administration to the strong dollar policy... A stronger dollar will make gold costlier to overseas buyers, thereby reducing the demand for the precious metal..."

[UpInArms]

26. ROFLMAO!!!

With the dollar at its 3-year low relative to the euro and the yen, investors are speculating that the greenback will stop sliding, especially given the commitment of the Bush administration to the strong dollar policy... A stronger dollar will make gold costlier to overseas buyers, thereby reducing the demand for the precious metal...

ummmm - the * misadministration is out there pushing the dollar down - who are these pundit clowns????

spin, regurgitate, spin, ralph, spin, soap, rinse, spin....

[mrsteve]

27. Ha! Good catch!

I was so busy trying to post and duck (the boss is walking around) that I only got to read the first paragraph.

*'s strong dollar policy, indeed.

[mrsteve]

28. 2:20 - Sideways and a little down (typical mid-afternoon lull)

But no strong movement out of the red since this morning.

Dow 9,606.39 -48.22 (-0.50%)
Nasdaq 1,890.01 -17.84 (-0.94%)
S&P 500 1,031.87 -7.38 (-0.71%)
10-Yr Bond 4.219% -0.025

[On the Road]

29. Been Holding Short for a Month

and biting my nails much of the time. Will sell at the end of October regardless (unless a full-scale selloff has just begun).

One of my favorite stock sources on the internet is a guy called Carl Swedlin who runs a pay site called Decisionpoint. One of the most experienced and careful technicians I've ever come across. I'm not a subscriber, but there are some interesting things on the free portion of the site, notably Chart Spotlight. About twice a month, he takes a technical chart, tears it apart, and gives his personal forecast.

Ever since 1999, he has been updating an article called "Pictures of a Stock Market Mania". It uses types of statistics I had never seen before, such as these:



He has very compelling arguments to show that the market is still overheated and overpriced, and there are still several years of decline ahead of us.

====

Now, having said that, I found this quote from Sep 7:

My assumption is that we are in a cyclical bull market within the broader context of a secular bear market. Under these circumstances a cyclical bull market wouldn't be expected to last longer than approximately one year, give or take a couple of months. The question is whether we count from the October or March bottom. Unweighted indexes, like RSP (Rydex S&P Equal Weighted ETF), suggest that October is the best choice, and the cycle structure suggests that there will be a correction later this year that could easily retest the long-term support at around 960.

A little shocking considering the source. Swedlin isn't the type to jump on bandwagons or be tossed about by sentiment.

So it's a quandry. Now what?

Result: Still staying short. Biggest reasons are: seasonality, massive insider selling, overvaluation, unsustainability (?) of the long rally. Who knows?

Just thought I'd share. It's an interesting point in the market.

[JNelson6563]

30. All your reasons are good ones

I think you've got a good plan in the face of undeniable reality (that would be different from the pundit reality, which is illusion).

With that said I have done my part for the economy and given the orthodontist a mighty nice payment for his brand new office space.

:-)

3:10 looks like a nice uptick from the last update here:


Dow 9,635.42 -19.19 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,897.77 -10.08 (-0.53%)
S&P 500 1,034.33 -4.93 (-0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.232% -0.012


Julie

[On the Road]

31. It's Always the Paper Trades and "Might-Have-Beens" That Make Money

I've been watching the October seasonality for about five years, but never made a large deliberate trade to take advantage of the fact that October is down 90% of the time. Watch this one be the exception.

[Shrek]

32. Swedlin seems like a smart guy

He's participating in the current round of Strategy Lab at MSN MoneyCentral. So far he's doing quite well with some solid picks.

I've been intrigued with Strategy Lab for a while now because it's fascinating to watch the pros make trades and get their insights (a lot of which turn out to be WRONG).

[mrsteve]

33. 3:30 - nosed back down

...going into the last half hour - still all red.

Dow 9,630.39 -24.22 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,895.70 -12.15 (-0.64%)
S&P 500 1,033.96 -5.29 (-0.51%)
10-Yr Bond 4.242% -0.002


I'd post the Yahoo Fi update but that one this morning about "Bush's strong dollar policy" has me teed off still. What a bloody pundit spinning joke...

[JNelson6563]

34. Closing numbers

Dow 9,630.90 -23.71 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,893.78 -14.07 (-0.74%)
S&P 500 1,033.78 -5.48 (-0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 4.242% -0.002

Not all that bad. See you Marketeers in the morning! :hi:

Julie