STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 24 June

[ozymandius]

Friday June 24, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 211 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 187 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 250 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1307
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 23, 2005

Dow... 10,421.44 -166.49 (-1.57%)
Nasdaq... 2,070.66 -21.37 (-1.02%)
S&P 500... 1,200.73 -13.15 (-1.08%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.96% +0.01 (+0.35%)
Gold future... 439.70 -0.80 (-0.18%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Choose Your Intellectual Expert

The good thing about having two major bubbles within 6 years of each other is that if you have a memory, you may be able to apply the memories of the first bubble to the second bubble. It is with this premise that I would like to discuss some thoughts about today’s housing bubble as they relate to the 2000 stock market bubble. The most important fact to recall from the stock market bubble is that its duration was sufficient to render all fundamentally correct “early bird bubble callers” as either fools, driveling idiots, or worse. Those investing their money on the short side of stocks in the late ‘90s lost their collective shirt in addition to being outcast for their views. As was said many times in the late 1990’s and 2000, “they just didn’t get it.” The particular vivid memory that I recall is when the lone bearish “elf” on Wall Street Week, Gail Dudak, was relieved of her duties as an “elf” by Louis Rukeyser. In the late 1990’s brokerage house guests on CNBC wondered out loud whether Warren Buffett had lost his touch. Similar behavior is likely to occur in the US housing bubble.

Will Robert Shiller be criticized for calling a housing bubble? If the 2000 tech bubble is any indication of his timing, maybe not. The first edition of his book, Irrational Exuberance, was on book shelves in Mid-March of 2000. The recently released 2nd edition discusses the housing bubble and has been on store shelves for several months so far. In the game of “Choose Your Intellectual Expert,” Professor Shiller is batting 1,000 in calling bubbles (1 for 1). By contrast, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is batting zero (0 for 1). With regard to the possibility of a US housing bubble Shiller suggests that there is such a bubble, and Greenspan says it’s just “a little froth.” OK folks, it's time to “Choose Your Intellectual Expert”!

-cut-

A catalyst for this final chapter in the housing bubble could come in the form of movement to higher mortgage rates which could provide the final cry from marginal buyers to, “Just get me in because tomorrow higher interest rates may price me out of the market.” Note that increases in interest rates preceded the final climax run in technology stocks in 2000, as well as in stocks in 1929. In 2000 the general feeling was that technology stocks were immune from the effects that higher interest rates would have on the “old economy.” In 1929, speculators were so enamored with the short term paper gains they were achieving in stocks, that higher interest rates for call money (used to buy stocks on margin) were negligible compared to the high double digit gains thought to be possible in common stocks. In the final phase of bubbles, the remedy to prevent a bubble from occurring in the first place has the opposite effect when it is used too late. In the manner that higher interest rates were ineffective in pricking the 2000 technology bubble, and actually catalyzed the final parabolic phase of the 1929 bubble, if interest rates move higher soon, it may catalyze a final blowoff phase of the US housing bubble. Falling interest rates may slow the housing bubble, as the buying may exhaust itself from the demand side. Of course exhausting demand wouldn’t help house prices very much either and it is likely that eventually the housing bubble would deflate from its own weight. If 2000 is any indication, the Fed is preparing to deal with the aftermath of the bubble and not the bubble itself. In the case of Mr. Greenspan, the Plan is to retire in January.

-cut-

Today’s Market – a Potential Turning Point

All of the indices were down significantly today with the Dow Transportation and Industrials leading the way. It was the first decisive distribution day since mid-May. As you can see from the chart below, the S&P 500 was turned down from the March 1229 level, and the 1220 level which it tickled for the last week.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.88 Change -0.24 (-0.27%)

2005 Second Half FX Outlook

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1791&Itemid=39

EURUSD Outlook

Although the euro reached record highs at the beginning of this year, the rally in the currency was not driven by positive European economic news. Instead, the rise in the unit was primarily fueled by massive bearish sentiment towards the dollar. However, now the tables have turned and the bearish sentiment in the EURUSD is being primarily driven by pessimistic sentiment towards Europe. The continent’s economic woes have spilled over into the political arena following the rejection of the new EU Constitution. With the euro being an easy scapegoat for the inability of European politicians to spur growth in their own countries, Italy has led the pack in calling for the dissolution of the euro altogether. This speculation has been the catalyst for the euro’s extensive sell-off through the first half of the year. In fact, what has been happening is that the fundamental landscape for the EURUSD has changed completely. The currency pair used to shrug off any bad euro news, and reacted only based upon US developments, earning itself the title the “anti-dollar.” Now, the currency pair reacts almost solely on euro news and shrugs off bad US data.

Fed’s Rate Hikes Are Holding The Dollar Up

Part of the reason why EUR/USD has been able to ignore US data is because the US continues to aggressively raise interest rates, keeping the dollar bid. This is very important because the Federal Reserve is the only central bank to be aggressively raising rates this year. As a result, traders are buying back dollars to either reverse old carry trades (when they sold dollars as rates were being slashed to 1.00%) or to initiate new ones. In fact, this could even explain some of the confusion with long-term interest rates. The Fed is expected to bring rates back up to at least 3.50%, which means that there may be some more carry trade premium left in the dollar. However once the Fed is done tightening, we may finally get back to fundamentals, at which time, the sole pillar propping up the dollar could topple.

But Fundamentals In The US Are Deteriorating


Across the Atlantic, although the economies of the countries within the Eurozone still remain very weak, especially with Italy sliding back into recession, the 1600 pip slide in the EURUSD appears to be having some stimulative effect on the region’s health. Eurozone industrial orders and the German ZEW survey are but only 2 economic indicators that have surprised on the upside. The US on the other hand has come out with a barrage of disappointing releases; In May of 2005, non-farm payrolls failed to reach 50% of expectations, consumer spending took a sharp dive, inflation pressures were very muted, the manufacturing sector showed signs of significant weakness with the Philadelphia Fed Survey plunging into negative territory, and the current account deficit ballooned to a new record high. Foreign purchases of dollar denominated assets also failed to meet the funding needs of the trade deficit for 2 consecutive months. Globally oil prices have shot to another record that will certainly hurt growth and consumer spending across the globe. The changing trend of economic data should be beneficial for the euro, yet with political factors and the Fed’s aggressive rate hike campaign, the EURUSD could remain under pressure for a few more months.

...more...]/i]

I was thinking about the state of the euro - perhaps Italy (Bersculoni) making negative remarks regarding the euro currency and now Blair is out there doing a similar song - have something to do with the *Co plan - is it just some more "verbal intervention"? hmmmm....

Also, the timing of the China bid for Unocal - they (China) definitely have lots of dollars that they probably want to spend before their value drops all to shit ..... :think:

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

12. Dollar dips on durable goods report details

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38527.3630527315-837249867&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar dipped in the wake of a U.S. economic report on durable goods orders. Orders rose 5.5% in May, boosted by aircraft demand. But excluding transportation, orders were down 0.2%, the third decline in the past four months. Durable orders in April were revised to a 1.4% increase from 1.9% previously estimated. The dollar was quoted at 109.16 yen vs. 109.21 before the report. The dollar does remain up slightly against the yen when compared to Thursday. The euro was at $1.2090 vs. $1.2076, a gain of 0.4% on the day.

[AnneD]

24. Morning Marketeers

:donut: Boy, I am out of pocket one day and all hell breaks lose and I miss the fun. I'll have to read yesterdays threads. Well Marketeers and lurkers, Happy hunting, and watch out for the bears.:hi:

[UpInArms]

27. Hiya AnneD!

Seems like there's bears lurking in all quadrants these days!

:hi:

[AnneD]

36. Morning UIA

:hi: Finished reading yesterday's thread. Boy the bears were everywhere. Maeve, what is the title of your book? I'll look for it as a purchase for my clinic (if it is a kids book). Sometimes the kids are in for a while waiting for parents to show up so I keep books and things for them.
I am starting to get more nibbles on the job search so I am feeling better. I have the feeling I'll have something by the end of the month. Wish me luck.
Going with my kid (and a bunch of our Methodist Elders- they are a great group of guys)to see the Houston Astros play the Texas Rangers tonight. Baseball is a passion with me. Love those boys of summer. I will cut out early so hope ya'll have a good day and great weekend.

[UpInArms]

38. shameless plug here

:D

http://www.atlasbooks.com/marktplc/01430.htm

Adventures of Seamus McSeamus,
an Irish Rover

to Maeve :yourock:

I'm certain the kids at the clinic will be happy :D

[Maeve]

39. Thanks, UIA and AnneD!

I appreciate the request and the answer--just got back from the doctor and the wrist is recovering nicely, just needs a bit more time.

The oil situation may kick off that next phase of the bear market(for DOW theorists)...I know I'm trying to find ways to limit driving and conserve.

Oh, yeah and Amazon.com also has Seamus, now!

[AnneD]

43. Thanks....

Happy to hear you are on the mend Maeve. Let me know if you are ever in Houston, Tx (home of the Mucky Duck). I love to get books signed whenever possible (wrist allowing of course). We actually have several kids books signed by the authors (one of my daughter's school librarians brought in authors to speak to the kids-always a fun event for the kids. I'll check it out.

[UpInArms]

3. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Jun 24	8:30 AM		Durable Orders	May	-	3.0%	1.5%	1.9%	-	
Jun 24	10:00 AM	New Home Sales	May	-	1325K	1320K	1316K	-

[UpInArms]

11. Cooked May Orders Report in:

U.S. MAY DURABLE-GOODS ORDERS UP 5.5% ON AIRCRAFT

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={DF2554CB-3343-4FBA-9AF6-6644CDF88FD7}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Led by demand for new airplanes, orders for U.S.-made durable goods increased 5.5% in May, the biggest increase since March 2004, the Commerce Department said Friday. Economists were expecting orders to rise 1.8%. Economists were expecting a big increase in aircraft orders after Boeing Co (BA) reported orders soared to 200 in May from 14 in April. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were down 0.2% in May. Durable orders in April were revised to a 1.4% increase from 1.9% previously estimated. Shipments of durable goods decreased 0.2% in May after a 1.4% gain in April. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 2.3% in May after a 1.7% gain in April. This is the biggest decline since October. Shipments in this sector rose 0.2% after a 1.4% rise in April.

?? Will this show that Boeing lost $6 Billion order? Well, obviously not!

Here's the cancellation:

Air Canada cancels 6 bln usd Boeing jet order after pilots reject deal

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/afx/2005/06/19/afx2099947.html

MONTREAL (AFX) - Air Canada has cancelled a 6 bln usd order for 32 Boeing Co long-range jets agreed in April after the airline's pilots rejected the deal.

The deal, for 18 Boeing 777 aircraft and 14 new 787 Dreamliners, was subject to ratification by Air Canada Pilots Association (ACPA).

It was rejected by the rank-and-file membership, Air Canada said in a statement late Saturday, adding that it was 'disappointed' at having to cancel the Boeing order.

'We are naturally disappointed at having to cancel the wide body aircraft order,' said Montie Brewer, president and CEO of Air Canada.

'While the cancellation of this aircraft order will be disappointing to our employee group at large, including many of our pilots,' he said the airline 'will adjust our plans' going forward.

...more...

8:30am 06/24/05 U.S. MAY DURABLE-GOODS INVENTORIES UP 0.3%

8:30am 06/24/05 U.S. APRIL DURABLE ORDERS REVISED TO RISE 1.4% VS 1.9%

8:30am 06/24/05 U.S. MAY DURABLE-GOODS SHIPMENTS FALL 0.2%

8:30am 06/24/05 U.S. MAY DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION DOWN 0.2%

8:30am 06/24/05 U.S. MAY DURABLES ORDERS GAIN LED BY AIRCRAFT ORDERS

8:30am 06/24/05 U.S. MAY DURABLES ORDERS GAIN LARGEST SINCE MARCH 2004

8:30am 06/24/05 U.S. MAY DURABLE-GOODS ORDERS UP 5.5% VS. 1.8% EXPECTED

[Roland99]

44. They'll save Boeing's loss for next month's revision downward.

[UpInArms]

16. May New Homes Sales at 1.3K units - below forecast - April rev down

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38527.4167930671-837254801&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. new home sales rose 2.1% in May to a 1.30 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. May sales were the second highest on record, below the 1.31 million unit pace set last October. Sales in April were revised to down 0.1% to 1.27 million units, compared with the initial estimate of a 0.2% gain to 1.32 million units. Economists expected sales to remain steady in May at the initial April estimate of 1.32 million.

10:00am 06/24/05 U.S. MAY NEW HOME SALES PRICE UP 2.5% Y-0-Y TO $217K

10:00am 06/24/05 U.S. APRIL NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 1.27M VS 1.32M

10:00am 06/24/05 U.S. MAY NEW HOME SALES BELOW 1.32M FORECAST

10:00am 06/24/05 U.S. MAY NEW HOME SALES UP 2.1% TO 1.30 MLN UNITS

[Roland99]

28. Hmm...lots of prior month revisions downward to lessen impact lately

[UpInArms]

33. so blatant that even the cheerleaders had to notice this time

from the 11:30 blather:

Even though May new home sales rose 2.1%, lending further support that the housing market remains strong, the May level of 1.298 mln units, which actually checked in below an expected 1.320 mln rate, climbed only because of a sharp downward revision to the prior month (to 1.271 mln from 1.316 mln)

[AnneD]

37. Sooooo

you noticed that too......Getting to be a regular occurence. Really boosts my confidence in the stats. Can't decide weither I need hip waders to walk through the BS or :tinfoilhat: for the falling chips in this trickle down/plop down economy.

[UpInArms]

4. HSBC reported investing heavily in India subsidiary

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4DA861BA%2D1B91%2D4832%2DBB67%2DF1B222477E52%7D

NEW DELHI (MarketWatch) -- The HSBC group (HBC) is investing $30 million to set up a new wholly owned subsidiary in India as part of a plan to restructure its investment-banking and capital-market services operations in the country, reports the Economic Times newspaper.

Under the plan, the 75% equity held by HSBC Investment Bank BV in HSBC Securities & Capital Markets India will be transferred to the new subsidiary, HSBC NBFC, the report says, citing unnamed sources.

The new subsidiary will become the hub for HSBC's Indian operations, under which a non-banking finance company will be incorporated.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. IBM to hire 14,000 in India, NY Times reports

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38527.264762338-837240500&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- IBM (IBM) plans to increase its payroll in India this year by 14,000 workers, even as it cuts 13,000 jobs in Europe and the United States, the New York Times reported on its Web site Friday. "IBM is really pushing this offshore outsourcing to relentlessly cut costs and to export skilled jobs abroad," said Marcus Courtney, president of the Washington Alliance of Technology Workers, or WashTech, a group that seeks to unionize such workers. "The winners are the richest corporations in the world, and American workers lose."

Cutting Here, but Hiring Over There

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/24/technology/24blue.html?oref=login

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

Even as it proceeds with layoffs of up to 13,000 workers in Europe and the United States, I.B.M. plans to increase its payroll in India this year by more than 14,000 workers, according to an internal company document.

Those numbers are telling evidence of the continuing globalization of work and the migration of some skilled jobs to low-wage countries like India. And I.B.M., the world's largest information technology company, is something of a corporate laboratory that highlights the trend. Its actions inform the worries and policy debate that surround the rise of a global labor force in science, engineering and other fields that require advanced education.

To critics, I.B.M. is a leading example of the corporate strategy of shopping the globe for the cheapest labor in a single-minded pursuit of profits, to the detriment of wages, benefits and job security here and in other developed countries. The company announced last month that it would cut 10,000 to 13,000 jobs, about a quarter of them in the United States and the bulk of the rest in Western Europe.

"I.B.M. is really pushing this offshore outsourcing to relentlessly cut costs and to export skilled jobs abroad," said Marcus Courtney, president of the Washington Alliance of Technology Workers, or WashTech, a group that seeks to unionize such workers. "The winners are the richest corporations in the world, and American workers lose."

WashTech, based in Washington State, gave the I.B.M. document on Indian employment to The New York Times. It is labeled "I.B.M. Confidential" and dated April 2005. An I.B.M. employee concerned about the shifting of jobs abroad provided the document to WashTech.

<snip>

Such competition, however, can become particularly harsh for workers in the West when they are competing against well-educated workers in low-wage countries like India. An experienced software programmer in the United States earning $75,000 a year can often be replaced by an Indian programmer who earns $15,000 or so.

...more...

[modrepub]

6. My wife's company

has had several projects coded by groups in India. The last one came back and her group had to rework the code to get it to run correctly. I'm not trying to disparage coders in India, but how much money was saved by sending something for foreign coders if your own people have to drop everything and rework it to get it to run properly? Anyone else out there have similar experiences?

[wishlist]

10. Wachovia to ship jobs to India (notified 3,000 info tech personnal this wk

In January Wachovia announced that it hoped to downsize 4,000 employees by the end of 2007. This week it provided more details:

"Wachovia Corp. said yesterday that some of its information-technology operations would be handled in India as part of a strategy to reduce annual expenses by up to $1 billion.

The bank has not determined the number of jobs that would be affected by the outsourcing decision, nor when it would begin, spokeswoman Christy Phillips said.

Phillips said that about 3,000 employees in its chief information officer division were notified Tuesday that the bank is pursuing an offshore initiative."

http://www.journalnow.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=WSJ/MGArticle/WSJ_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031783448209

[UpInArms]

7. PMC Sierra to cut more jobs as part of restructuring

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38527.2990498611-837242955&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- PMC-Sierra (PMCS) increased the number of jobs it expects to eliminate as part of a restructuring by 63 to 89. As a result, the communications semiconductor maker raised the expected cost of the restructuring by $5.9 million to $7.4 million. Separately, the company said second-quarter revenue should be at the high-end of the previously provided forecasted range of $70 million to $72 million. The book-to-bill ratio is expected to exceed 1.1 by the end of the quarter, given that bookings are currently greater than its revenue outlook. The stock closed Thursday up 38 cents at $9.54.

[UpInArms]

8. Alliant Energy Job Cuts

http://www.kwwl.com/Global/story.asp?S=3514848&nav=2IfubOj7

obs cuts are now a reality for dozens of local Alliant Energy workers.

Last month, Alliant announced it would cut 228 jobs. On Thursday, more than 100 employees officially lost their jobs in Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota. That includes 25 jobs in Cedar Rapids and 12 in Dubuque.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. E*Trade drops Ameritrade pursuit - source

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/23/AR2005062301694.html

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Online broker E*Trade Financial Corp. <ET.N> has dropped its pursuit of rival Ameritrade Holding Corp. <AMTD.O>, which on Wednesday announced a deal to buy TD Waterhouse USA, a source familiar with the situation said on Thursday.

Ameritrade struck a deal to buy TD Waterhouse USA from parent Toronto-Dominion Bank <TD.TO> on Wednesday, consolidating the struggling online brokerage sector as analysts had said was inevitable.

In a separate development, an Ameritrade spokeswoman said that staff numbers at the combined Ameritrade/TD Waterhouse USA may be slimmed down by about 1,400 in the next two years, taking the work force to 3,000 from about 4,400.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Treasurys extend gains on weak durables report details

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38527.3603053472-837249665&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The benchmark 10-year Treasury note extended its gains in the wake of a report that showed orders for big-ticket items eased when the volatile category of aircraft was excluded. The 10-year note was last +10/32 at 101 24/32, yielding ($TNX) 3.913%. Orders were up 5.5% in May. But excluding transportation, orders were down 0.2%, the third decline in the past four months. Durable orders in April were revised to a 1.4% increase from 1.9% previously estimated.

[UpInArms]

14. 9:34 EST markets are open and pre-opening blather

Dow 10,405.79 -15.65 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,069.23 -1.43 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,199.65 -1.08 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 3.919 -0.40 (-1.01%)

NYSE Volume 36,274,000
Nasdaq Volume 43,417,000

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Futures trade still denotes a mixed bias, possibly signaling a flat open for the cash market... While early indications showed signs of the market's resilience and a possible rebound in equities, further analysis of the unexpected drop in the ex-trans component of the durable goods data - which suggest that business investment may stall later in the year - appears to have underpinned a sense of nervousness to own stocks going into the weekend

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. Futures indications still trade close to fair value, but now point to a mixed start for stocks... Meanwhile, blue chips in focus include IBM, which plans to up its hiring in India by more than 14,000 workers, and Alcoa (AA), which plans to eliminate about 5% of its global work force

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures trade holds relatively steady following economic data, still indicating a steady open for the indices... May durable orders rose 5.5%, well above economists' forecasts which called for a 1.5% rise, following a downwardly revised 1.4% increase a month earlier (from +1.9%), while ex-transportation fell 0.2%... Bonds, however, have extended early gains, as the 10-year note is now up 9 ticks to yield 3.91%

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a flat to slightly higher open for the cash market as investors look for bargains following yesterday's broad-based drubbing...

[UpInArms]

15. updated blather

9:40AM: Market opens with a sense of caution amid concerns about slowing economic growth following mixed economic data... While May durable goods orders - a leading indicator of manufacturing activity - showed a strong 5.5% gain, checking in well above an expected 1.5% increase, orders excluding transportation fell 0.2%, versus an anticipated 0.5% rise...

Also, non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft, which mirror the GDP category producers' durable equipment (PDE) - the largest component of business investment - fell 2.3%, further playing into the argument of a slowdown in manufacturing and the fact that business investment may moderate in the second half of the year... Separately, May new home sales (consensus 1.32 mln) will be released at 10:00 ET...

Well, well, well. Someone else figured out that military spending does not make GDP - LOL!

[UpInArms]

17. 10:07 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,393.82 -27.62 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,067.11 -3.55 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,198.30 -2.43 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 3.917 -0.42 (-1.06%)

NYSE Volume 261,213,000
Nasdaq Volume 227,253,000

10:00AM: Equities are still on the defensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... Health Care has been the most influential leader to the downside after Guidant (GDT 61.55 -7.05) advised doctors to stop implanting some of its defibrillators... Technology has been weak across the board while the Materials sector has also extended yesterday's weakness, lower today after Morgan Stanley downgraded the steel industry to Cautious from In-Line... Despite falling bond yields, interest-rate sensitive areas like Financial and Utilities have also traded lower...

Energy, however, has posted a modest gain, benefiting from another advance in oil prices... Biotech has also been a bright spot, climbing on reports that Gilead Sciences (GILD 42.36 +0.94) is seeking to regain rights to Tamiflu from Roche Holding AG...DJTA -0.5, SOX -0.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 1128/1272, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 997/1322

[UpInArms]

18. Crude opens at $59.80 bbl - up 38c

10:31am 06/24/05 AUG CRUDE UP 38C AT $59.80/BRL AFTER $59.25 LOW

[UpInArms]

20. Oil Rises to Record $60; Demand Strains Rigs, Pipes, Refineries

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=adTmZ5u6pS9c&refer=latin_america

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil advanced for a second day to a record $60 a barrel in New York as surging demand forces producers and refiners to operate at full capacity.

``The world faces a lack of slack everywhere'' from the well- head to the refinery, said Paul Horsnell, the head of energy research at Barclays Capital in London. ``It's a legacy of decades of under-investment. The price would have to be here for some months to see a significant effect on demand.''

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is pumping almost as much crude as it can to boost inventories and meet increasing use in countries led by the U.S. and China. Refineries are struggling to make enough transport and heating fuels before the fourth quarter, when global consumption peaks.

Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as 58 cents, or 1 percent, to $60 a barrel, the highest since oil started trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 1983. It was up 29 cents at 2:29 p.m. London time. Prices have gained 57 percent from a year ago. They averaged less than $19 from 1995 through 1999.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. When to float yuan? A debate erupts in China

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/06/24/business/revalue.php

BEIJING For China, Alan Greenspan's advice to the U.S. Senate against forcing a revaluation of the yuan may have offered some vindication.

Chinese officials have long maintained that revaluing the yuan against the dollar would do little to improve the U.S. trade deficit with China of $160 billion. The chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve made virtually the same point in remarks Thursday.

Yet while members of the U.S. Congress this week demanded that Beijing revalue its currency or face trade sanctions, there were increasingly public signs in China that policy makers and economists remain divided over the timing of any revaluation and its consequences for the Chinese economy.

Officials there have said they would eventually move to a more flexible exchange rate, and on Thursday a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that President Hu Jintao might discuss the exchange rate when he meets with leaders of the Group of 8 leading industrialized nations next week.

But in commentaries in China's generally reticent state-controlled press this week, some economists argued that Beijing had "already lost its best opportunity to revalue" and should move as soon as possible. Others said that even a small revaluation could drag down Chinese exports, throwing thousands of businesses into bankruptcy, and that Beijing had no reason to shift its peg with the dollar.

...more...

[patcox2]

21. Bubble dilemna; interest rates, economic slowdown, pulling both ways.

So, assume there is a bubble; prices are probably inflated more in some areas than others, just as, in the tech bubble, some stocks were more ridiculously overvalued than others, but there is a bubble.

What will pop the bubble?

Rising interest rates would certainly pop the bubble. It seems to me the bubble might have been caused entirely by the low interest rates, themselves caused by the fed's extraordinary efforts to prop up the limping, fizzling, borrowing, dying Bush economy. In the auto business, people don't buy on price, they buy on monthly payment. Thats whats happened in real estate, and as interest rates go down, the price can rise, with the same monthly payment. Voila, a bubble.

But the economy seems to be slowing, the fed is expected to stop raising rates, perhapts lower them again by the end of the year.

So,what happens? Does the slower economy decrease demand and pop the bubble as surely as rising interest rates would? Or do the continuing unnaturately low interest rates keep the bubble inflated?

Does it depend on what really is causing the bubble? Is it possible its not a bubble, is real estate just revealing the otherwise hidden inflation thats occurring? Is the bubble really just inflation caused by our massive and monetized debt and the low value of the dollar? In that case, it never really would "pop," would it? Instead, its more like Gold as idealized by the gold bug, a commodity that will keep track with inflation. In fact, Real Estate might just be the best commodity to park money in, as its the only one holding its value during this period of strange selective, hidden-under-the-rug inflation, mightn't it?

Which is it?

[UpInArms]

23. Hi patcox2!

Great post!

The interest rate and the lack of political independence of the Fed have caused a number of problems in the financial world.

The huge run-up of deficits and the accumulating debts along with a major trade deficit have put this country at the very edge of insolvency.

Now we have an economy that is made up 2/3rds of consumer spending - how can that be?

The housing bubble and the interest rate issue has caused a massive influx of $$$ that have been "created" just through the lending process. :crazy:

In all of that - the bubble has been pumped up as tightly as possible, with the trap being laid for the consumer (all those new bankrutcy laws that prevent the credit companies from taking any responsibility in the mess).

Then you have the dollar situation - where the interest rates have to continue to rise in order to keep the foreign money flowing in to finance our deficits and debts. (see the daily dollar watch this a.m.)

The conumdrum is which way will they go, George? (borrowing a line from Steinbeck - sort of)

[patcox2]

29. Steinbeck by way of Bugs Bunny.

I only know what I read in the papers and the Mogambo. I did love it when, 2 years ago, when 30 year mortgage interest rates were at yet another all time low, and Greenspan publicly stated that people should get ARMs. Whaaaa, I thought to myself, is he insane, or does he think we are, or is he just throughly, wretchedly corrupt.

[UpInArms]

30. I opt for choice number 3

throughly, wretchedly corrupt

:toast:

[UpInArms]

22. 11:17 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,396.96 -24.48 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,064.63 -6.03 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,199.76 -0.97 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 3.928 -0.31 (-0.78%)

NYSE Volume 609,881,000
Nasdaq Volume 532,040,000

11:00AM: Market continues to chalk up losses, getting little assistance from mixed housing data... Even though May new home sales rose 2.1%, lending further support that the housing market remains strong, the May level of 1.298 mln units, which actually checked in below an expected 1.320 mln rate, climbed only because of a sharp downward revision to the prior month (to 1.271 mln from 1.316 mln)... The PHLX Housing Sector Index (HGX 518.64 -7.18), which as of last night's close was up nearly 11% in 2005, has recently fallen to its lowest level in 10 sessions... NYSE Adv/Dec 1171/1745, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 939/1730

10:30AM: Major indices fall to session lows amid continued deterioration in Technology and a recent reversal in Energy... Even though oil prices continue to trade near record highs ($59.80/bbl +$0.38), a 16% surge in the Energy sector from mid-May lows has invited some early profit-taking... Notable oil stocks trading lower include XOM (-0.6%), DVN (-0.5%), APC (-0.3%) and RIG (-0.4%)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1174/1598, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1036/1491

[UpInArms]

25. PIEHOLE ALERT

11:34am 06/24/05 BUSH: FREEDOM IN IRAQ OPPOSED BY 'RUTHLESS ENEMY'

(I noticed the market starting to really stumble - had to figure it out :eyes: )

11:44 ET

Dow 10,373.03 -48.41 (-0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,060.60 -10.06 (-0.49%)
S&P 500 1,197.52 -3.21 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 3.929 -0.30 (-0.76%)

NYSE Volume 721,081,000
Nasdaq Volume 618,211,000

11:30AM: Blue chips improve their stance somewhat as the influential Financial sector turns positive for the first time today... Financial, which accounts for about 20% of the weighting in the S&P 500, has inched back into the green, getting a boost from broad-based gains in brokerage stocks... Evidently, the group has applauded Legg Mason's (LM 95.25 +10.26) $3.7 bln asset swap with Citigroup (C 47.19 +0.31) - a deal which could result in about $80 mln worth of savings for LM...

Even though Legg Mason is the least influential (7.7% weighting) of the AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index's (XBD 157.92 +2.76) 12 components, a 12% surge in LM shares has been the impetus behind the XBD hitting a historic high... NYSE Adv/Dec 1309/1662, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1078/1680

[UpInArms]

31. more idiocy spew

11:55am 06/24/05 BUSH: 'I'M NOT GIVING UP ON THE MISSION' IN IRAQ

11:49am 06/24/05 BUSH SEES 'GOOD PROGRESS' IN TRAINING IRAQI TROOPS

11:46am 06/24/05 BUSH SAYS WON'T SET TIMETABLE FOR WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ

[UpInArms]

32. 12:08 EST numbers still tumbling

Dow 10,359.68 -61.76 (-0.59%)
Nasdaq 2,059.27 -11.39 (-0.55%)
S&P 500 1,196.88 -3.85 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 3.934 -0.25 (-0.63%)

NYSE Volume 815,336,000
Nasdaq Volume 689,049,000

[UpInArms]

34. noon blather

12:00PM: Market remains under pressure midday, as an unexpected decline in manufacturing data and oil prices near record highs underpin a sense of nervousness in the wake of yesterday's broad-based drubbing... Even though May durable goods orders showed a strong than expected 5.5% gain (consensus +1.5%), orders excluding transportation fell 0.2%, versus an anticipated 0.5% rise, and non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft, fell 2.3%, suggesting business investment may stall in the second half of the year...

Despite crude oil futures ($59.40/bbl -$0.02) recently slipping to session lows, concerns that high oil prices may crimp corporate profit margins and consumer spending continues to weigh on sentiment that has left nine out of ten economic sectors trading lower... Technology has paced the way lower, amid broad-based consolidation in everything from Semiconductor and Software to Networking and Hardware... Health Care, another influential leader to the downside, has lost ground after Guidant (GDT 62.23 -6.37) advised doctors to stop implanting some of its defibrillators... The Materials sector has also been under pressure, amid continued deterioration in steel stocks...

Morgan Stanley downgraded the steel industry to Cautious from In-Line... Despite falling bond yields, the interest-rate sensitive Utilities sector has failed to extend yesterday's modest gain... The 10-year note is up 6 ticks to yield 3.92% after traders learned that the large increase in durable orders was fueled by a surge in aircraft orders... Homebuilding (-1.1%) has also failed to take advantage of improved rates following lower than expected housing data...

[UpInArms]

35. barfing out more crap

Bush rules out timetable for Iraq withdrawal

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38527.5079622801-837262277&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Bush on Friday again rejected calls by some lawmakers to set a timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq, saying that such a move would be counterproductive. "There are not going to be any timetables. I have told this to . We are there to complete a mission, and it's an important mission," Bush said at a joint press conference following a White House meeting with the Iraqi premier. Setting a timetable would simply give Iraqi insurgents incentive to "wait us out," Bush said.

[UpInArms]

26. Punk Ziegel downgrades Citigroup

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38527.4836492824-837260373&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Punk Ziegel analyst Dick Bove downgraded shares of Citigroup to market perform from buy and said its asset swap announced with Legg Mason on Friday raises questions about the nation's largest bank's ability to regain its earnings momentum. "While the deal itself appears to be a very bad one on its surface, the rationale behind the deal as expressed in the company's conference call was far worse than the deal itself," Bove wrote. Citigroup shares rose 26 cents to $47.14 Friday and Legg Mason shares jumped 15% to $97.71. "Citigroup may be walking away with a minimum of $2 billion less than the true value of its money management division," Bove concluded.

[Maeve]

40. 1:12 and blather

Dow 10,352.85 -68.59 (-0.66%)
Nasdaq 2,057.64 -13.02 (-0.63%)
S&P 500 1,196.49 -4.24 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 39.32 -0.27 (-0.68%)
NYSE Volume 1,027,075,000
Nasdaq Volume 847,700,000

1:00PM: Little changed since the last update as buying interest remains scarce across the board... Bonds, however, have caught a bid after traders digested May durable goods data that, without a 165% jump in civilian aircraft orders - as evidenced by new Boeing (BA 61.13 -0.73) orders soaring to 200 in May from 14 in April - unexpectedly declined... With the data casting some doubt on the strength of the underlying economy, the benchmark 10-year note has climbed 6 ticks to yield 3.92%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1264/1819, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1082/1780

[UpInArms]

42. twins!

:toast:

[UpInArms]

41. 1:13 EST numbers and blather (redder still)

Dow 10,351.86 -69.58 (-0.67%)
Nasdaq 2,057.51 -13.15 (-0.64%)
S&P 500 1,196.24 -4.49 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 3.933 -0.26 (-0.66%)

NYSE Volume 1,031,006,000
Nasdaq Volume 851,446,000

1:00PM: Little changed since the last update as buying interest remains scarce across the board... Bonds, however, have caught a bid after traders digested May durable goods data that, without a 165% jump in civilian aircraft orders - as evidenced by new Boeing (BA 61.13 -0.73) orders soaring to 200 in May from 14 in April - unexpectedly declined... With the data casting some doubt on the strength of the underlying economy, the benchmark 10-year note has climbed 6 ticks to yield 3.92%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1264/1819, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1082/1780

12:30PM: Stocks now confined to a relatively tight trading range, as a bearish bias remains intact... Decliners on the NYSE hold an 18 to 11 advantage over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq hold a 17 to 10 edge over advancing issues... The ratio of down to up volumes, however, suggests an even more negative tone at both the Big Board and the Composite... Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq still struggle to find support near key technical levels of 10375, 1198 and 2065, respectively...NYSE Adv/Dec 1194/1854, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1040/1794

So will the spin be that folks just "don't want to hold their stock over the weekend"? :rofl:

[UpInArms]

46. 1:43 EST numbers (sinking faster)

Dow 10,341.34 -80.10 (-0.77%)
Nasdaq 2,057.34 -13.32 (-0.64%)
S&P 500 1,195.54 -5.19 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 3.930 -0.29 (-0.73%)

NYSE Volume 1,133,905,000
Nasdaq Volume 930,495,000

1:30PM: Indices continue to languish near their lows of the session as sellers remain in control of the action... While worries of slowing economic growth and record oil prices have contributed to the bulk of profit-taking over the last two sessions, another underlying concern rising to the surface has been a deceleration in earnings growth...

With the second quarter coming to a close next week, and aggregate Q2 earnings for the S&P only expected to come in around 8% - down from 13% last quarter and 21% in Q404 - investors may be waiting for such upcoming earnings reports to become more influential in determining stock valuations... NYSE Adv/Dec 1213/1911, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1033/1878

[AnneD]

55. UIA....

they are worried about the possibility of bad weather:spray: :rofl:

[UpInArms]

65. oooooo...

:scared:

Will it be:

Too hot?

Too cold?

Too wet?

or

Too dry?

:rofl:

[UpInArms]

45. Commentary: FOMC likely to stay true to form on rates

Won't risk upsetting financial markets, economists say

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB1204FE3%2DD4D0%2D4B5C%2DA4C1%2D34679189E725%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve will remain cautious during the central bank's meeting next week, hiking short-term rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.25% while making no major changes to policymakers' post-meeting statement, economists said.

Only one month ago, may Fed watchers thought the Federal Open Market Committee might rip up their statement at their two-day meeting on June 29 and 30 and start fresh.

But it's economists who have ended up changing their tune, saying it's more likely that the Fed doesn't want to risk upsetting financial markets.

"Markets are a little confused about what is going on in the economy, and I don't think the Fed would like to introduce any more confusion in the market's mind," said Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor and now an analyst at Stanford Washington Research Group.

"Why would the Fed want to upset the market and the cart now?" asked David Wyss, chief economist at DRI/McGraw Hill.

...more...

[RawMaterials]

47. Head and Shoulder for the DOW ????

what do you guys think

[Roland99]

48. The post-Nov. election stability is gone

This administration has proven to be completely feckless in anything it attempts to accomplish. The Apatheticans are waking up.

[RawMaterials]

49. I wouldn't be surprised

If it went under 9000 sometime in the next year.
I guess its all speculation anyway.

[Roland99]

50. I've been calling for what would amount to a crash for a long time.

It's artificial. Everything about the markets now are propped up on stilts and now they're infested with termites and getting shaky.

This "recovery" touted by the admin and the media is as lop-sided toward the execs, the wealthy, and the corporations themselves as it could possibly be. It's not sustainable.

This country's in for a world of hurt soon and I don't see any way around it.

Best to start piling up cash reserves and hold onto that job and start cutting expenses whereever you can to get used to lean times ahead.

[UpInArms]

51. 2:18 EST numbers and blather (will the pixie dust show up today?)

Dow 10,326.30 -95.14 (-0.91%)
Nasdaq 2,054.48 -16.18 (-0.78%)
S&P 500 1,194.19 -6.54 (-0.54%)
10-Yr Bond 3.925 -0.34 (-0.86%)

NYSE Volume 1,279,782,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,048,845,000

2:00PM: Market spikes to new lows, spearheaded by broad-based weakness in Technology... Hardware (-1.6%) has paced the way lower, led by declines of more than 2.5% in Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 23.73 -0.66) and Apple Computer (AAPL 37.83 -1.06)... Even though shareholders have approved Symantec's (SYMC 21.26 -0.47) acquisition of Veritas (VRTS 23.85 -0.42), a sell-the-news reaction has kept Software (-1.5%) under pressure... Ongoing consolidation has also been seen in chip stocks, as the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX -1.2%) has surged about 12% since bottoming out in mid April... NYSE Adv/Dec 1148/1989, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1032/1902

1:30PM: Indices continue to languish near their lows of the session as sellers remain in control of the action... While worries of slowing economic growth and record oil prices have contributed to the bulk of profit-taking over the last two sessions, another underlying concern rising to the surface has been a deceleration in earnings growth...

With the second quarter coming to a close next week, and aggregate Q2 earnings for the S&P only expected to come in around 8% - down from 13% last quarter and 21% in Q404 - investors may be waiting for such upcoming earnings reports to become more influential in determining stock valuations... NYSE Adv/Dec 1213/1911, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1033/1878

[ozymandius]

52. things don't look too promising

2:26
Dow 10,319.70 -101.74 (-0.98%)
Nasdaq 2,053.91 -16.75 (-0.81%)
S&P 500 1,193.67 -7.06 (-0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 39.24 -0.35 (-0.88%)
NYSE Volume 1,308,716,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,072,593,000

[UpInArms]

54. Hey Ozy! Do you think it will close under 10,300 today?

not too much farther to fall to achieve that :eyes:

[ozymandius]

57. I do not want to answer your question with a question...

but I ask: when does oil trading close?

That bit of volatility can turn these numbers on a dime. I see no reason why it should not close below 10,300. If placing a bet - I'd say yes.

Gotta run an errand. It has been devilishly busy today. I'll check back before the close.

ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

58. Crude closes at 3:00 ET - today closed up at $59.84 bbl

Crude prices close 1% higher for the week

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38527.6287422106-837271781&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- August crude closed at $59.84 a barrel, up 42 cents for the session. It's up 66 cents for the week, but 4 cents below Monday's record close. "The petroleum market looks becalmed for the moment, its sail flapping a bit as it waits for the wind to pick back up," said Tim Evans, a senior analyst at IFR Markets.

[UpInArms]

53. 2:26 hot potato - down 100+

Dow 10,318.86 -102.58 (-0.98%)
Nasdaq 2,053.88 -16.78 (-0.81%)
S&P 500 1,193.67 -7.06 (-0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 3.924 -0.35 (-0.88%)

NYSE Volume 1,308,716,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,072,593,000

[Roland99]

56. It's a Friday. Who's going to notice?

[ozymandius]

59. This is just a generality - but average no less.

The markets tend to end the week on a positive note. Whenever it closes down on Friday, heads usually turn.

[AnneD]

60. The faeries

are vacationing in Bermuda laundering the cash they got selling short(s). Hey even faeries need a holiday now and again. That faerie dust is actually beach sand.

[UpInArms]

62. 3:35 EST numbers and blather (still 100+ down)

Dow 10,321.39 -100.05 (-0.96%)
Nasdaq 2,056.55 -14.11 (-0.68%)
S&P 500 1,194.22 -6.51 (-0.54%)
10-Yr Bond 3.914 -0.45 (-1.14%)

NYSE Volume 1,637,967,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,418,776,000

3:00PM: Major indices continue to pull back heading into the final hour of trading, as a widespread bearish bias continues to weigh on equities... Perhaps also contributing to the negative sentiment is some uncertainty ahead of next week's FOMC meeting... While the market has deemed it a foregone conclusion that the Fed will raise rates another 25 basis points on Thursday, investors will be dissecting the language of the accompanying policy directive to gain some insight on when the Fed may finally settle on the definition of a "neutral" fed funds rate...NYSE Adv/Dec 1139/2049, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1043/1934

2:30PM: Selling remains the name of the game in afternoon trading, as losses on the major indices remain fairly large... But large-cap names have not been the only issues impacted by strong follow-through selling interest... Small-cap stocks have also suffered, as the Russell 2000 Index - which is undergoing a semiannual rebalancing that will reshuffle its indexes at the close of trading today - has nearly matched yesterday's 1.5% sell-off with a loss of 1.3%... Including today's weakness, the index is off about 3.9% so far this year - well off the pace of last year's impressive 17% performance... NYSE Adv/Dec 1081/2069, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 987/1986

[ozymandius]

61. 3:35

Dow 10,325.69 -95.75 (-0.92%)
Nasdaq 2,057.16 -13.50 (-0.65%)
S&P 500 1,194.69 -6.04 (-0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 39.14 -0.45 (-1.14%)
NYSE Volume 1,644,895,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,425,269,000

3:00PM: Major indices continue to pull back heading into the final hour of trading, as a widespread bearish bias continues to weigh on equities... Perhaps also contributing to the negative sentiment is some uncertainty ahead of next week's FOMC meeting... While the market has deemed it a foregone conclusion that the Fed will raise rates another 25 basis points on Thursday, investors will be dissecting the language of the accompanying policy directive to gain some insight on when the Fed may finally settle on the definition of a "neutral" fed funds rate...NYSE Adv/Dec 1139/2049, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1043/1934

[UpInArms]

64. 3:30 blather

3:30PM: Market lifts off its worst levels, but not nearly enough to make a significant change in the standings, as the absence of sector leadership continues to dictate late-day action... However, while yesterday's broad-based declines came on higher than average volume, a lack of active participation today suggests a slowing of the bearish momentum... Total volume is running at a below average pace as the NYSE has only recently surpassed 1.0 bln shares... NYSE Adv/Dec 1043/2152, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 995/2000

[UpInArms]

63. Another Positive Mad Cow Test

3:37pm 06/24/05 USDA: ANIMAL WAS BLOCKED FROM ENTERING FOOD SUPPLY

3:35pm 06/24/05 USDA: TESTING NEARLY 1,000 ANIMALS A DAY

3:36pm 06/24/05 USDA: TESTS UNDER WAY TO DETERMINE HERD OF ORIGIN

3:34pm 06/24/05 USDA: SCIENTISTS TO SEEK NEW TESTING PROTOCOL

3:33pm 06/24/05 USDA: SAMPLE TESTED POSITIVE FOR MAD COW VIRUS

(makes me happy I gave up beef 2 1/2 years ago)

[Renew Deal]

77. Will this have an affect on the markets?

Is the beef industry going to get hit?

[UpInArms]

78. we'll have to watch the commodity market

to see:

here's where it closed today

LCQ5 Live Cattle Aug (CME) 79.875 -0.100 8128 75856 set 14:19 all months

FCQ5 Feeder Cattle Aug (CME) 108.450 -0.450 1366 14593 set 13:59 all months

[daleo]

66. A 300 point drop in 12 hours of trading

That's pretty big. And here I had started to think that the 10500 round number barrier had been broken.

[UpInArms]

67. closing

Dow 10,297.84 -123.60 (-1.19%)
Nasdaq 2,053.27 -17.39 (-0.84%)
S&P 500 1,191.57 -9.16 (-0.76%)
10-Yr Bond 3.914 -0.45 (-1.14%)

NYSE Volume 2,400,253,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,151,002,000

yessirree - it does look like that 10,500 round number has been broken :eyes:

[daleo]

68. I meant the psychological 10500 barrier, on the upside.

That the market had managed to get past 10500 and stay there, without being spooked and going back under. I guess in stock market lingo they say something like "breaking through the 10500 barrier".

[UpInArms]

72. sorry daleo -

sometimes my dry humor is too dry.

Yes, it did look like it could go up, but why? Valuations are out of whack, reports stink, the lies keep getting rewritten daily, weekly and monthly - they say stupid things like "investors don't want to hold stock over the weekend" - huh? What kind of investor isn't willing to risk the weekend? Is the market that precarious?

Makes one wonder (or at least this one)

Have a Great Weekend!

:hi:

[daleo]

74. No problem

I know exactly what you mean about dry humor - it happens to me too. I agree that the "explanations" given for market moves are pretty silly. You have a nice weekend as well.

[ozymandius]

70. Ow!

That's gonna leave a mark.

Have a great weekend folks. See you on Monday.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

73. Have a Terrific Weekend Ozy!

:hi:

[UpInArms]

71. blather

Close: Stocks opened lower, amid ongoing concerns of slowing economic growth and record oil prices, and continued to deteriorate into the close, extending yesterday's trouncing... While futures indications showed signs of the market's resilience and a possible rebound in stocks, following the Dow's biggest drop since April 15 and a 1.1% decline that pushed the S&P back into the red for 2005, disappointing economic data underpinned a sense of caution that closed all ten economic sectors in negative territory...

While May durable goods orders - a leading indicator of manufacturing activity - showed a strong 5.5% gain, checking in well above an expected 1.5% increase, orders excluding transportation fell 0.2%, versus an anticipated 0.5% rise, marking the third month in four that the ex-trans component has been negative... Adding insult to injury, April's orders were revised lower, to 1.4% from 1.9%, while ex transportation orders were revised to -0.7% from -0.2%, as non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft fell 2.3%, further playing into the argument of a slowdown in manufacturing and the fact that business investment may stall in the second half of the year...

A lack of strong sector leadership, as well as a diminishing desire to own stocks over the weekend and ahead of next week's FOMC meeting which falls on the last day of the second quarter, also weighed on sentiment... Meanwhile, Technology, the most influential sector to lose ground, was weak across the board... As expected, shareholders approved Symantec's (SYMC 21.25 -0.48) acquisition of Veritas (VRTS 23.81 -0.46), but both stocks tumbled amid concerns that Symantec's sales growth in 2006 could slow to about 18% (from 35%) after the two are combined...

[UpInArms]

69. Legg Mason joins hedge-fund world Buying Permal gets company into fast-gr

Legg Mason joins hedge-fund world
Buying Permal gets company into fast-growing area

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BFA4BCA77%2D846C%2D481C%2DADF1%2DEEB4A3548C20%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Legg Mason's purchase of the $20 billion hedge-fund firm Permal Group gets the mutual-fund company into one of the fastest-growing areas of money management.

Legg Mason, which doesn't currently offer so-called alternative investments, said Friday it had agreed to buy 80% of Permal and has the right to purchase the remaining 20% over the next four years.

With a sticker price of between $961 million and $1.39 billion in cash and Legg Mason (LM: news, chart, profile) stock, depending on Permal's performance, the deal represents one of the largest hedge-fund acquisitions ever.

It also makes Legg Mason one of the biggest hedge-fund businesses in the world, ranking alongside giants such as UBS AG, Man Group and Union Bancaire Privee.

"For a while the question has really been, 'Why weren't they getting into the hedge-fund business?' " said Brad Southern, a principal at New York-based financial-services investment bank Freeman & Co. "Having an alternative capability is important because more and more institutions are allocating a significant percentage of their money to the area."

...more...

WHEEE!

[belab13]

75. ? for the board

On most of the issues I looked at i.e. msft, ibm, xom, cvx, yhoo etc... there appeared fairly significant volume spikes at the close of trading. Does this have anything to do with MMs replenishing inventory? or is it something else. TIA

[UpInArms]

76. I don't know the answer to that one, belab13

but maybe someone else out there might.

I don't really watch individual stocks and their daily ups and downs and volumes (that truly might drive me mad :evilgrin: )