NEW POLL: Clark Holds Slight Lead

[DoveTurnedHawk]

Wesley Clark has a slight lead over his Democratic presidential rivals in the latest national poll by CNN-USA Today-Gallup released Thursday.

Clark, who entered the race just over three weeks ago, had 21 percent support while former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean was favored by 16 percent of those polled Oct. 6-8. Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, the 2000 vice presidential nominee, and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts were at 13 percent among registered voters.

The remaining candidates were in single digits.

A CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll taken in mid-September gave Clark a nine-point lead, with Dean, Kerry, Lieberman and Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri battling for second place.

In the latest poll, Gephardt was at 8 percent, Al Sharpton 6 percent, Carol Moseley Braun 4 percent, and Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio 2 percent. Fifteen percent were undecided.

The poll of 400 registered voters who are Democrats or lean Democratic was conducted Oct. 6-8 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

<...>

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20031009_1529.html

DTH

[blackcat77]

1. Your link didn't work nt

[goobergunch]

5. Use this one

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20031009_1529.html

[goobergunch]

2. Emphasis on "national poll" (n/t)

[wyldwolf]

3. Of course he does...

Knew it, you just confirmed it.

[arwalden]

4. I'm Liking Clark Because He Appears To Be The Most Educated...

... and most intelligent candidate. Am I wrong? Or is it just the fact that he speaks so WELL and so eloquently that makes me think he's more educated than the rest?

Is so refreshing to hear a potential president speak in full, complete, coherent sentences. It gives me chills to know that there's hope we could actually have a president who can form opinions on his own and who can understand complex ideas... and then be able to EXPLAIN those opinions and ideas to others.

-- Allen

[DoveTurnedHawk]

13. He and Dean And Edwards Are the Most Educated

He's got a Masters in three fields (including Econ) from Oxford, while Dean has an MD and Edwards has a JD.

Clark has greater distinction in his academic career, however, finishing first in his class at West Point overall (and first in his class for the year, three out of his four years there), and earning a Rhodes Scholarship. He also taught Econ at West Point.

I definitely agree that he is the most intellectual and intelligent candidate, although we have quite a few others who are solid as well. :-)

DTH

On Edit: Forgot Edwards. Also, it's worth noting that both Dean and Edwards have professional degrees, while Clark's is more "hard intellectual" in nature. :-)

[THUNDER HANDS]

15. um...might I bring up the name

John Kerry.

He's pretty smart too, and find me someone who doesn't believe he has the best grasp (knowledge) of the issues of any candidate running.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

16. I Think Kerry's Smart

But he doesn't have a post-grad degree, IIRC.

DTH

[Loyal]

22. Uh

It's just as hard to get a law degree as it is to get a post-grad degree.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

24. Your Point Being? (eom)

DTH

[pinerow]

28. Sorry...he's a Skull&Boner...Kerry. that is...no dice.

nt

[blm]

26. Kerry has a law degree.

He was a district attorney in Mass. before he became Lt. Governor.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

27. Thanks for the Info

I wasn't aware of that!

DTH

[Kahuna]

32. You are correct Allen. Clark graduated #1 at West Point..

and is a Rhodes Scholar. He is the only "scholar" of the bunch.

[ConservativeDemocrat]

6. The key to why this poll is meaningless...

can be found in the second paragraph.

"...were at 13 percent among registered voters."

Unfortunately, registered voters don't always vote. If they did, Democrats would always win. The only poll that actually means anything is one that measures likely voters.

- C.D.

[diplomats]

10. Zogby always polls likely voters

most others polls don't until close to an election.

[wyldwolf]

12. The key to why this poll is meaningful is right here:

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20031009_1529.html

The poll of 400 registered voters who are Democrats or lean Democratic was conducted Oct. 6-8 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

[diplomats]

7. What's Bush's rating in this poll?

The link doesn't work.

[wyldwolf]

8. Here's a working link...

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20031009_1529.html

[CMT]

9. Thanks for info DTH

Clark still #1, but Dean moving up from 12% and a tie with Kerry and Lieberman in the last poll to 16% and second place all to his own. I'm pleased.

[JaneQPublic]

11. Margin of Error: +/- 5 points

That's relatively large. Most of these polls have MOEs of +/- 3 points.

And since Clark and Dean are only 5 points apart...

[wyldwolf]

14. riiiiight! (wink wink)

[dofus]

17. Any poll in which

two candidates are separated by no more than the margin of error is actually a "too close to call" result.

And plus or minus 5 percent is huge.

I also find all of these early polls to be completely meaningless. At this point it's pure name recognition. State by state polling of those most likely to participate in the primary or caucus are meaningful. After we have the nominee, then the choice between the two candidates becomes meaningful.

Until then, I wish the various candidate supporters would stop posting these.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

18. Wish Away, I'm Not About To Stop Posting Relevant News Articles in LBN

Sorry to disappoint you.

DTH

[Rowdyboy]

19. I can't IMAGINE not posting polls,

regardless of the margin of error, regardless of whether they are indicators or name recognition, I just love polls. And I think, if we took a poll, most Du'ers would agree...

[wyldwolf]

20. Don't post poll unless Dean is in the lead...

..then it's OK!

[MGKrebs]

21. Polls are only snapshots.

They don't have a whole lot of meaning on their own. It is interesting to watch the trends occur over time, however.

edited for the ubiquitous spelling error. Did I spell ubiquitous correctly?

[Rowdyboy]

23. Indubitably...

sir

edited, likewise, for spelling error

[VolcanoJen]

25. I agree that most LBN readers are interested in the latest polls.

Polls are, and always have been, allowed in the LBN Forum. Most LBN readers view them with great interest, irregardless of trends and leaders.

[Vis Numar]

29. Poll Notes

THe only important thing about these polls is their momentum: Clark led Dean by 9% in their last poll, in this poll, he leads by 5%.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

30. Everyone Expected That at Least Some of Clark's Lead Was a "Bounce" Effect

It doesn't surprise me there has been a small tightening.

DTH

[Vis Numar]

31. poll notes

Sept. 19-21




Oct. 6-8

Clark, 21 percent
Howard Dean, 16 percent
Joe Lieberman, 13 percent
John Kerry, 13 percent
Gephardt, 8 percent
Al Sharpton 6 percent,
Carol Moseley Braun, 4 percent
John Edwards, 2 percent
Dennis Kucinich, 2 percent
15 percent were undecided

Edwards is doing REALLY REALLY BAD! So is Gephardt, it looks like it's between Clark, who is holding, and Dean, who keeps rising.

[joeybee12]

33. For what it's worth--my read on this

I don't know what Clark was in the previous poll. Sounds like he's holding, or did he drop a little after his bump from right after he announced?

Either way, I'd interpret this as a good sign for him.

Sounds like good news for Dean, who has been lagging in national polls while leading in various states.

The real loser appears to be Holy Joe--this was the one poll where he was leading, but now has dropped--he was up there mainly from name recognition and it's now clear that he can't build on that. no chance.

Really bad news for Edwards--can he change his mind and try to defend his Senate seat?