STOCK MARKET WATCH, FRIDAY OCT 10....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Friday October 10, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 472
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 326
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 301 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 359 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 201
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 685
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 9, 2003

Dow... 9,680.01 +49.11 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq... 1,911.90 +18.12 (+0.96%)
S&P 500.... 1,038.73 +4.95 (+0.48%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.30% +0.06 (+1.41%)
Gold future... 369.80 -6.20 (-1.65%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. The stock thread starts extra early Monday.

Like - 5:45am

As we regulars always encourage: if you have not been a regular contributor to this thread, this is a good time to start. The best additions are opinions, questions and news items - particularly news items that often ride under the radar.

Thanks!

[Maeve]

2. Under the radar stories like this

Businesses to lenders: Drop dead
Despite low rates, companies spurn borrowing. Could it mean the recovery will be weak?
October 9, 2003: 1:54 PM EDT
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money Staff Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Though interest rates are still low, credit terms are easy, stock prices are rising and optimism about the economy is high, many businesses still aren't borrowing money, according to recent bank loan data.
Some economists say that is a worrisome sign that corporate caution lingers, though others suggest businesses may be raising funds in other ways. Cautious spending on the part of U.S. businesses has contributed to a slow recovery from the 2001 recession.
First, the facts: The dollar value of all commercial and industrial loans outstanding at U.S. commercial banks fell to $907.3 billion in the last week of September, the Federal Reserve reported recently, the lowest level since August 1998.
And businesses are fleeing from bank loans even though business lending rates are at their lowest levels in nearly 20 years. According to the Fed's latest survey of business lenders, the weighted average interest rate for all business loans was 3.15 percent in February, the lowest since the Fed started keeping track back in 1986 <more>

[JNelson6563]

5. This ties in with what I was hearing yesterday

That CEO's aren't nearly as enthusiastic about the business landscape as the analysts. Seems to me too that many companies don't want anymore debt than they already hold. I don't blame them.

Of course the talking heads wrote it off as wet-blanket-syndrome. Stopped short of calling the CEO's spoil-sports though.

Julie

[ozymandius]

9. This speaks volumes.

Pair this with job information from comments by Robert Reich (Marketplace, earlier this week) and what we have is an economy that is afraid of its own shadow with no real growth. Reich says that the drop in jobless claims is due to companies hiring temp workers. This means that companies are shy about full-time commitments.

The news about companies shying away from low-interest loans comes as little surprise.

[radfringe]

29. temps are also easier to dump

and usually the company doesn't have to pay benefits, if available benefits are offered through the temp agency

my partner did temp work for about 4 years - everytime she was close to the end of the temp contract where the company would have to hire her permanently - she was dumped

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

"A Look At The Technology Generals"

As the Generals in the last secular bull market, large cap NASDAQ technology stocks led the way. They are also the leaders of the latest rally that began in October of 2002 based on market capitalization gained. I thought it would be relevant to examine a representative company, Intel, from a fundamental perspective. Following the fundamental analysis of Intel, I evaluate the technical charts of five of the leading large cap technology stocks, to gain insight into their short-term stock prospects.

<cut>

If Intel were at the beginning of a 5-year run of world-class growth, it would not have stumbled as much as it did over the last few years. If their products were so necessary for their old economy customers to compete, don’t you think they would have posted some growth and not shrinkage over the last few years? If new Intel products were needed for companies to compete, they would have purchased them in spite of the economy, especially with the past and current accommodative monetary policy. Do you think that corporations are thinking that as soon as the economic soft patch ends, they are going to get out there and replace most of their computers? I don’t. These companies are facing pressure to clean up their balance sheets, and pay dividends to their shareholders. Unless expenses for new technology and computers can bring an immediate return on investment, they will be deferred or eliminated. When Intel posted exponential growth in the mid-90s, corporations needed new computers to compete. Failure to innovate via technology would have been fatal to most companies. Accordingly, companies purchased technology with a strong sense of urgency. Their survival depended on it. Now, with technology an integral part of practically all businesses, further innovation is discretionary in most cases. The Pentium II purchased in 1997, and the Pentium III purchased in 1999 is adequate for 95% of the tasks utilized in most business applications. I’m typing this and viewing Financialsense.com on a Pentium III, purchased in 1999.

The government checks, recent tax cuts, and home refinancing are driving current growth in household computer sales. These sources of spending money are not sustainable as a revenue source for Intel. On the household level, once the unsustainable economic stimulus wears off, sales of computers to consumers will inevitably slow.

In the late ‘90’s, technology companies such as Intel also benefited from Initial Public Offering (IPO) money sloshing into computer and other technology purchases needed for dot.com startups. Unless such an IPO bubble wheel spins again, future sustainable growth of this nature will not return.

more to see here

[JNelson6563]

6. some interesting charts today

I thought "manic" was a good choice of words too. ;-)

Julie

[JNelson6563]

4. Good Friday Morning!!

Well the futures aren't looking so bad this morning. There is just no telling where things may go today. I have no feel for it. I believe there may be profit taking but again, no telling.

In Greg Palast's book, The Best Democracy Money Can Buy, he talks about stock & bond ownership. Here's a blurb of interest:

Dr. Edward Wolff, director of the Income Studies Project at the Jerome Levy Institute, New York, tells me that between 1983 and 1997, 85.5 per cent of the vaunted increase in America's wealth was captured by the richest 1 per cent. In that time, overall US income rocketed - of which 80 per cent of America's families received 0 per cent. The market's up, but who is the market? According to Wolff, the Gilded One Per Cent own $2.9 trillion of the nation's stocks and bonds out of a total of $3.5 trillion.

Food for thought.

Julie

[Shrek]

13. I think you may be right about profit-taking

GE lowered its 4th quarter guidance, so people may take that as an excuse to pull some money off the table -- especially since we've had a good run this week and it's a Friday.

[UpInArms]

7. daily dollar watch

and the question is: So what happened??? Did someone say "hot potato!"?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 91.64 Change -0.35 (-0.38%)

[Maeve]

8. Yen reaches 3-year high against dollar

CNN/Money story
Japan eases monetary policy, giving investors hope for a stronger recovery and lifting yen, stocks.
October 10, 2003: 7:14 AM EDT
LONDON (Reuters) - The yen hit a three-year high versus the dollar on Friday as expectations for a stronger recovery in Japan grew after an easing in its monetary policy boosted Tokyo stocks.

At 6:45 a.m. ET, the dollar had dipped to ¥108.33 from ¥109.12 late Thursday, its lowest level since Nov. 2000. The euro rose to $1.1786 from $1.1737 late Thursday.

The Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised the upper end of its target for banking system liquidity and made its money market operations more flexible <more>

[ozymandius]

11. A possible consequence?

Trade Deficit Shrinks Unexpectedly

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly shrank for the fifth consecutive month in August, as imports of cars and auto parts fell to their lowest level in 20 months, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Friday.

The trade gap totaled $39.2 billion, down from a revised tally of $40.0 billion in July and the lowest level since February. Analysts surveyed before the report had forecast the August trade deficit to expand to $41.3 billion. U.S. trade in the services sector set new records in August on both the import and export side.

The bilateral trade deficit with China hit a monthly record at $11.7 billion -- the biggest the United States has with any single country. Imports from the Asian manufacturing giant were also a record at $13.7 billion.

story

[Paulie]

16. See Ozy's post below

Russia to price their oil in Euros. We are so screwed!

[JNelson6563]

10. PPI data

8:35AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. Futures indications hold onto their gains on the heels of the PPI report... September PPI declined somewhat to 0.3% (consensus of +0.1%) while the core PPI was unchanged (consensus of +0.1%)... Additionally, the August Trade balance narrowed more than expected to -$39.2 bln.... The futures market has had little reaction to the data, and continues to point to a higher open thanks to favorable analyst commentary for the tech sector...

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Julie

[ozymandius]

12. Russia to price oil in euros in snub to US

I wonder how this will shake things up. Some believe Iraq's move away fro the petro-dollar as a major reason for the invasion.

story

Russia is to start pricing its huge oil and gas exports in euros instead of dollars as part of a stragetic shift to forge closer ties with the European Union.

The Russian central bank has been amassing euros since early 2002, increasing the euro share of its $65 billion (£40 billion) foreign reserves from 10pc to more than 25pc, according to the finance ministry.

The move has set off a chain reaction in the private sector, leading to a fourfold increase in euro deposits in Russian banks this year and sending Russian citizens scrambling to change their stashes of greenbacks into euro notes.

<cut>

A switch to euro invoicing would not affect the long-term price of oil but it could encourage Middle Eastern exporters to follow suit and have a powerful effect on market psychology at a time when the dollar is already under intense pressure. Russia boasts the world's biggest natural gas reserves and is the number two oil exporter after Saudi Arabia.

[LunaC]

17. Start the clocks

Saddam turned his back on the U.S. Dollar and accepted only Euros as payment for his oil in November 2000 and less than 2-1/2 years later we "punished" him for it. With the Saudis recently aligning with Russia and Russia switching to Euros they're intentionally putting the squeeze on the U.S. where it hurts the most. Heaven knows the PNAC certainly won't tolerate THAT kind of behavior!

[UpInArms]

18. and the dollar goes "OOPSIE!"

Last trade 91.31 Change -0.68 (-0.74%)

[ozymandius]

14. Here we go.

9:34


Dow 9,688.31 +8.30 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,917.07 +5.17 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,039.09 +0.36 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.262% -0.040

[Maeve]

15. 9:37 and it wants to bounce

Dow 9,698.98 +18.97 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,918.91 +7.01 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 1,039.94 +1.21 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.259% -0.043

[ozymandius]

19. Have a wonderful day Marketeers.

I must away to work.

Enjoy the show!

[JNelson6563]

20. Fare thee well Ozy!

9:56 and trying to get rolling:

Dow 9,693.64 +13.63 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,916.02 +4.12 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,039.09 +0.36 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.259% -0.043

Julie

[JNelson6563]

21. 10:28 update

Dow 9,702.16 +22.15 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,919.96 +8.06 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 1,040.06 +1.33 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.267% -0.035

Hangin' in there!

Julie

[Maeve]

22. 10:44--what happened?

Dow 9,687.50 +7.49 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,914.01 +2.11 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,038.41 -0.32 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.258% -0.044

[Maeve]

23. 11:28 with blather

11:00AM: Indices slip into negative territory due, in part, to the S&P 500's inability to take out a resistance point, at 1040, which marks its September high/breakout point... The market has been unable to shake the disappointing ending to yesterday's session, in which the indices charged higher on encouraging economic data and earnings reports, only to give back more than half of those gains in a late-day selling drive...
Mild profit-taking activity in momentum groups such as homebuilding, internet, and networking has also marked today's trade, as traders have looked to lighten positions from the market's strong start to October
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,682.16 +2.15 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,909.66 -2.24 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,037.28 -1.45 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.237% -0.065

And I'm out of here for the weekend! Slan!

[JNelson6563]

24. Enjoy your weekend Maeve!!

Looks like a pretty good day in Treasuries, eh? Good for them to get a break, let those bruises heal a bit. ;-)

Me thinks the downward (sell-off) trend may have begun for this Friday....11:38 and DOW was up 6+ pts a minute ago:

Dow 9,680.91 +0.90 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,909.46 -2.44 (-0.13%)
S&P 500 1,037.18 -1.55 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.239% -0.063


Julie

[mrsteve]

25. 12:48 numbers - in the red again - hello marketeers

Dow 9,668.61 -11.40 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,910.22 -1.68 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,037.31 -1.42 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.243% -0.059


Afternoon all - looks like things are interesting this Friday.

A little Yahoo Finance commentary:
"12:30PM: Stock market remains confined to its narrow trading range without much in the way of sector leadership to take its cue from... Although the influential semiconductor group has demonstrated relative strength, its gains have not been robust enough to substantially move the broader market...
Areas such as financial, cyclicals, biotech, and transportation have traded to the downside, and kept upside movement in check... The latter group has been pressured by sizable losses in airline..."

The semiconductors comment ties in with the Wrapup points about Intel, doesn't it?

(on edit: Typo)

[mrsteve]

26. 1:30 - As AC/DC once sang, "Back in Black"

Dow 9,685.50 +5.49 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,915.56 +3.66 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,039.54 +0.80 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.248% -0.054


Volumes are down about 10% on the NYSE, and about 20% for the Nasdaq. Looks like some of the dogs are staying on the porch today.

[JNelson6563]

27. hey there Steve!

Happy Friday to you!

2:20 and treading water:


Dow 9,683.13 +3.12 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,914.13 +2.23 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,038.94 +0.21 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.248% -0.054


Julie

[UpInArms]

28. Maybe they're singing "Lady in Red"

Dow 9,672.53 -7.48 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,911.40 -0.50 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,038.12 -0.61 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.248% -0.054

[mrsteve]

30. Looks like I missed a roller coaster - 10 minutes to go

And the numbers are somewhat just under water

Dow 9,669.27 -10.74 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,912.79 +0.89 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,037.42 -1.32 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.248% -0.054

Had to run out and buy some equpment for work. I did my part for the economy today...;-)