Oil Traders Raise Bets on $80 Crude on Supply Concern

[Strelnikov_]

July 4 (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=aDubtdLe8SIQ


Record oil prices may increase to $80 a barrel this year, options contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange show. Investors are speculating OPEC won't produce enough oil to compensate for any disruption to supplies.

New York Mercantile Exchange data show 6,900 options contracts outstanding that allow buyers to purchase oil for December delivery at $80 a barrel, compared with an average of 77 contracts in January. The probability that oil will top $75 a barrel when the December crude contract expires is 21 percent, according to Adam Sieminski and Michael Lewis, strategists at Deutsche Bank AG, up from 5 percent at the start of the year.

. . .

A supply disruption of ``a couple of million'' barrels a day could send prices to $105, William Dudley, the chief U.S. economist at Goldman, Sachs & Co. in New York, said June 14. Global oil demand will rise to a record 86.4 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, the Paris-based International Energy Agency forecasts.

``We've certainly seen people asking for prices on $100'' contracts, said Orrin Middleton, who markets options and other securities for Barclays Capital in London. ``This was way off people's radars 12 months ago. They now believe there's a possibility, but it's going to take a supply disruption to take us there.''

. . .

[pfitz59]

1. Record prices...record profits.....

We are all 'over the barrel'! (B.O.H.I.C.A.!)

[happyslug]

2. Old News, Been discussed for Months

Here is from the Peak Oil Forum with citations to other threads on this subject:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=266x1110

[Strelnikov_]

3. Whatever. n/t

[xray s]

4. BushCo creamed their jeans with this news

The Oil Division, that is. The Military Division has been in orgiastic spasm since 9/11.

[kestrel91316]

5. Note to self:

Ride bike to work FOUR days a week.

[Ms. Clio]

6. Well, Bin Laden believes oil should be selling for at least $100/barrel

And he specializes in activities that could cause the required "supply disruption."