TD5 has formed - Likely To Be Hurricane Emily In 72 Hours

[althecat]

TD5 has formed - Likely To Be Hurricane Emily In 72 Hours
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/110240.shtml

000
WTNT35 KNHC 110240
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2005

...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT
1280 MILES...2055 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 42.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505W_sm2+gif/025038W_sm.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505I_sm2+gif/025038P_sm.gif

[BrklynLiberal]

1. Uh oh..........

:wow:

[HeeBGBz]

2. This is only July - sheesh!

What the hell will August and September be like???

:scared:

[althecat]

3. According to WXmike there is another one further East. too....

You can see it at the far far RHS of this pic...

[HeeBGBz]

6. We have a weather group too

For those who are strangely drawn to storms and weather facts and info. In case "regular folks" get testy with all the weather threads soon to appear...


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=328

[SW FL Dem]

46. Emily is now a tropical storm

and predicted to be a hurricane by Wednesday.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_5day.html

[jojo54]

4. I know that the panhandle and east coast are "due" but,

isn't it a bit strange that these hurricanes and their intensity are getting stronger? Does anyone know if there's ever been 2 years like this on record? Could it have something to do with global warming that our stuttering leader says does not exist?

[Lorien]

22. Warmer sea temps turn tropical storms into hurricanes

so yes, global warming plays a role here. Those saying otherwise work-or listen to- the usual "think tanks" (spin centers).

[lovuian]

5. Its going to be a LONG Hurricane Season!!!

Global Warming is definitely changing our lives!!!

[DonMeyer]

7. Maybe the World Court can impose Kyoto on us?

Or maybe the Earth will heal itself by wiping out people and their pollution one hurricane at a time.

NPR said there had never been this strong of storm so early on the gulf coast since they started keeping records.

[BrklynLiberal]

11. or so many, I heard on the news.

[kansasblue]

8. It's NOT Global warming....

It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....
It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....It's NOT Global warming....

[BrklynLiberal]

9. If we keep saying that will it make it true?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[cliss]

10. Jeb Bush just got the word.....

he just finished celebrating that he got by fairly "unscathed" by Dennis the Destroyer.

Jeb & Columba clinked their champagne glasses together and started planning their next clothing trip....maybe Paris? No, what about Milan? Columba thinks it over.

Within minutes, someone hands Jeb a news flash with the latest hurricane. This one is heading ominously towards Florida.

As Jeb munches on his olive, he sees a narrow funnel on the horizon.

"Why me?"

[Lost-in-FL]

12. Ok... I had it!!!

I might have to divorce to get out of Florida (Why in the hell this state is called "Florida" for?). Sexual predators, serial killers, shark attacks, stolen elections, hurricanes... What good comes from Florida???
:mad: :puke: :freak: :freak: :freak: :rant:

[derbstyron]

13. Well, uh, I'm here

:bounce:

But that's about it.

[Lorien]

19. Hey, as soon as I have the funds

I'm outta here!!

[derbstyron]

41. I'm there with you

Next year is Grad school and one of my requirements be that the school be OUTSIDE of the state of FL

[Melodybe]

24. I like Orange Juice and, well, I was born there.

[leftchick]

43. I moved from Florida to NC in 1993...

I experienced Hurricane Fran in Raleigh NC in 1996.

:(

[Pachamama]

14. Don't Hurricanes only get male names ?

Just wondering...saw you calling it "Hurricane Emily"...

[Hissyspit]

16. been using male names as well since 1979 for Atlantic and Gulf hurricanes

[LisaL]

17. Nope. Whatever on Earth gave you that idea?

[Hissyspit]

20. Female only between 1953 and 1978.

25 years of female-only nomenclature (although to be fair, some names are trans-gender, Alex, for instance, can be short for Alexander and Alexandria, and what's to stop parents from naming a girl Alexander, anyway)

[Pachamama]

25. Name all the "Female" Hurricanes in the last 20 years...I can't think of

any at all...

Hugo, Dennis, Ivan, Floyd, Andrew, etc... but I don't recall female names....Maybe it's just "the boys" who seem to do the most damage :shrug:

[Hissyspit]

30. Fran, Isabel, Bonnie, Opal...

Think there was a Frances, separate from Fran. Allison in Texas in 2001. Irene was an annoying one in NC. Agnes also famous, more than 20 years ago.
Camille was a deadly one in 1969.

[Miami Liberal]

32. Also Hurricane Jeanne from last year. n/t

[Hissyspit]

33. yes, my sister's name n/t

[Pachamama]

38. I stand corrected...its why I asked...thanks! n/t

:hi:

[happyslug]

51. Atlantic Name 2005-2010

2005
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Dennis
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma

2006
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William

2007
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dean
Erin
Felix
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

2008
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paloma
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

2009
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

2010
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

[Sabriel]

61. Hey, where's Jesus?

I'd love to see that one on the list.

[althecat]

63. I think they intentionally choose names unlikely to rouse religious...

... or superstitious connotations. Perhaps because there is a natural tendency to see religious and or superstitious implications from these incredible storms.

[happyslug]

64. Actually pre-1950 most Hurricane had Saint's Names

Based on the day the Hurricane hit any one landing. Under the Catholic Church most days are given to one or more saints, thus if a Hurricane hit on October 25th, it became known as St Crispin's Day Hurricane. Many people knew these Saint's name (For Example Shakespeare uses St Crispin's day reference in Henry V). The problem with this system is a Hurricane can hit different landings on different days, thus NOT usable for a name of a Hurricane one is tracking (But given these historic names for past Hurricanes an effort was made to NOT re-use them).

When Tracking of Hurricane started distinguishing one Hurricane from another became important. At first the Hurricanes were listed as "A", "B" "C" etc depending on when the Hurricane developed. The Soldiers and Sailors of WWII's South Pacific theater of Operations started to refer to the Hurricanes (Or since we are talking about the South Pacific, Typhoons) with female names based on the Hurricane letter designation. (A became Alice, B became Betty etc). This was adopted by the Military Weather forecasters (Who also standardized the list, B became Betty, not Betty, Barbara, Brenda or any other female name starting with a B).

In the 1950s, the Weather Service experimented with using the Military Phonetic Alphabet (Alpha, Baker, Charlie) but found it caused confusion when Military Personnel used the Phonetic Alphabet to give the Hurricane's position so names independent of the Phonetic Alphabet was adopted. Women's names were used more by Habit from WWII days (and to keep names different from the Phonetic Alphabet) than any other reason. As stated above males names were added in the 1970s.

[QC]

21. They alternate male and female names.

It started back in 1978.

[lakemonster11]

34. I thought they traded off.

Male/female/male/female/male/female, etc...

[Hissyspit]

15. Another Emily? That's like the third Emily in the last 15 years? n/t

[althecat]

27. The names are arranged alphabetically...

Therefore names beginning in A, B, C, D, E & F much more common than names like Malcolm :)

[Hissyspit]

29. I know, but it's still confusing. n/t

[althecat]

31. Yes. You would have thought they could expand the list of names...

Especially if they are going to use em alphabetically as they do...

The chances of their ever being a Tessa, Yasmine or Ursula are virtually nil.

[Hissyspit]

35. There have been S's and T's lately, but they die out early usually

No retired S and T names. Roxanne the farthest into the alphabet to be retired. (1995)

[shawmut]

36. yup, 1993, 1999 and 2005

the same list of names come around every six years.


I remember the one in 1987 was a cat 3 and hit the Dominican Republic. I'm kind of surprised it wasn't retired after that.

[Hissyspit]

37. Any country can ask for retirement. From NOAA:

"When hurricanes are particularly destructive, their names are retired from the list of usable names. Any country affected by a particularly terrible storm can request that the name be retired by petitioning the World Meteorological Organization. A retired name cannot be reused for at least ten years, to facilitate historic references, legal actions, insurance claim activities, and to avoid public confusion with another storm of the same name. Below is a list of infamous hurricanes that have settled into retirement."

[doni_georgia]

56. That one was Iris

It hit in 1988, right before Hugo hit Florida. It fizzled out after hitting the Dominican, fortunately for Charleston: it was right behind Hugo and on the same course, but apparently Hugo sucked up most of its punch.

Iris was also retired (see downthread).

Mac in Ga

[radfringe]

40. names are reused periodically

however - if a particular hurricane is a big one - like "Camille" it's retired

http://www.miamisci.org/hurricane/hurricanenames.html
Once a hurricane has caused great damage, its name is retired from the six-year cycle. The following names have been retired.

Alicia, 1983
Allen, 1980
Andrew, 1992
Bob, 1991
Camille, 1969
David, 1979
Elena, 1985
Fredrick, 1979
Gilbert, 1988
Gloria, 1985
Hugo, 1989
Joan, 1988

[doni_georgia]

55. Here's the complete list, and thoughts on why not to live in New Orleans

http://www.fema.gov/kids/r_hurrnames.htm

Retired Hurricane Names

names are "retired" if a hurricane has been really big and destructive. It’s like when a sports jersey or number is retired after a really great athlete leaves a sport. When a name is retired it won’t be used again.

Agnes David Hazel
Alicia Diana Hilda
Allen Diane Hortense
Allison Donna Hugo
Andrew Dora Inez
Anita Edna Ione
Audrey Elena Iris
Betsy Eloise Jane
Beulah Fifi Joan
Bob Flora Keith
Camille Fran Klaus
Carla Frederic Luis
Carmen Floyd Lenny
Carol Gilbert Marilyn
Celia Gloria Michelle
Cesar Gracie Mitch
Cleo Georges Opal
Connie Hattie Roxanne

I'm pretty sure Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan were retired last year, also.


As a note: I work for a major shipping and transport company, and since 1988, part of my job has been to track and document all of our late shipments in the southeastern U.S. Needless to say, I hate hurricanes almost as much as shortsighted insurance executives (my sister earns her living as an adjuster; she's still dealing with some of the problems from Andrew). Last year was the worst I've seen, and I've been through every season since Hugo. I remember not being to reach anyone in southern Florida during Andrew. I can remember places being shut down for weeks in eastern North Carolina during Floyd and Fran.... but last year was far and away the worst. Everyone remembers the "big four" (Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne) but no one remembers that Bonnie and Gaston created their own bits of disruption last year as well, albeit on a much reduced scale.

I also weathered in TS Alberto in 1994, and I still cannot believe that that one hasn't been retired. Alberto-1994 stalled over Georgia and dumped 15 inches of rain on us in 36 hours (Dennis and Cindy combined caused only 11 inches over a week). The flooding was horrendous and killed quite a few people, even though it was only a "minimal" storm. The next Alberto - I think it was in 2000 - was the longest-lasting named storm in the Atlantic in history at the time, but never came close to land and was never a "really large" storm. They're playing with fire on that name.

Finally... I'm supposed to be in the Florida Panhandle next week. If Emily follows Dennis' track, and right now they are on close parallel courses (see map)...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/204720.shtml?5day

If that happens, then I will be standing on the beach with a big fan, trying to blow that sucker toward Texas. It would be a hell of a lot easier to evacuate Kenedy County, Tex. (pop. about 700) than to pack up the whole Panhandle again...or to watch New Orleans do what Los Angeles has been threatening to do for years and sink into the ocean. As bad as Ivan was, we have been very fortunate; sooner or later New Orleans is going to get hit the way Miami, western Florida, Biloxi, Galveston and Charleston have been. Given the city's lack of altitude and its fairly precarious position on the Mississippi delta, the damage from that kind of strike could dwarf anything we've seen. Imagine a twelve-foot surge on Lake Ponchartrain....right next to a city that's ten feet below sea level and whose water table is so high that there are crypts rather than cemeteries in some places. Pretty bad. Now imagine a twenty-foot surge. That scenario has concerned me for years.

Mac in Ga

[okieinpain]

18. I told my wife today I wish I was a national reporter. so I could

get on tv and say god is punishing florida for voting for bush. sorry to all of the florida du'ers. but I would just love to throw that crap back on the fundies, just once.

[NawlinsNed]

47. Stupid is as stupid does

[magellan]

23. "The Case Against Florida"

The Case Against Florida

Interesting report on the evidence that we alternate between 25-year-long periods of mild then severe hurricane activity. It does not bode well for my current home state. :cry:

The Bermuda High must GO!!

[greyl]

39. Yes, that is interesting.

Damn overpopulation!

[Boomer]

42. Heading toward a perfect storm

At a minimum, we're facing more intense and frequent hurricanes because of the start of the periodic active cycle for tropical storms. That's a given.

But the complicating factor this time around is a general rise in Atlantic ocean water temperature (I think it's one degree) due to global climate change. Some climatologists are discounting that warmth as relevant factor, but others say it will have an effect.

Just how much of an influence this latter factor will be is unknown, but the advent of a Category 4 hurricane in early July, and the line of hurricanes that appear to be forming behind Dennis, may some indication of what's ahead.

[Miami Liberal]

26. And it looks like it's heading to South Florida

Wake me up when hurricane season is over. :crazy:

[althecat]

28. Possibly.... but then it could also turn north.... they often do

[malaise]

44. This one does look like

the Leeward Islands, PR, DR, the Bahamas, South Florida, Carolinas, etc.
Remnants of Dennis could spare the US mainland here. TD5/Emily is days away so I'm not getting worried for at least two days. For those who really want to worry, there's another one behind TD5.

<edit> add sentence.

[northzax]

45. the big question for me

most important, of course, are fatalities and injuries, but after that is property damage. a good 'cane is actually, in the mid-term, GOOD for the economy, the rebuilding boom creates jobs. And the rest of the nation pays for it. I say you get one federal Emergency support every 20 years. they're already reducing support for people in floodplains, hurricane alley should be next. You want to build a house in a hurricane zone that isn't built to survive? bad luck. get insurance. The rest of the taxpayers shouldn't be rebuilding sections of florida every 5 years.

I say a 20 year window allows for some amortisation of the costs of rebuilding, and frankly, a natural disaster every 20 years is a reasonable thing to plan for. If LA was hit by a major earthquake every 5 years, we wouldn't be rebuilding it every time, would we?

[raccoon]

65. I second that. nt

[theHandpuppet]

48. EMILY: Updated track forecast as of Monday night

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/

Florida, here it comes! Looks as if it's headed straight for the Miami area unless it takes a northward turn.

Click on the "Emily" link you will find to the right of the webpage, listed under "TSR Tropical Storm Tracker".

[althecat]

49. Emily is presently forecast to run right over Gitmo...

... except by the GFS model which has emily fading away... go figure

[malaise]

50. Emily track changes

here we go again. Barbados and Windwards islands already on hurricane watch.
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm5/hurricaneadvisories_large.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/144629.shtml?5day

[msongs]

52. weather.com sucks big time.....

waited for 3 minutes, all the ads loaded, got 17 cookies, and no image that we went there to see.

it is a corporate disaster. when it first started, it was slim and lean and fast. not anymore.

Msongs
www.msongs.com/political-shirts.htm

[doni_georgia]

58. Agreed

www.noaa.gov is pretty good, though maybe a bit technical. NOAA doesn't seem to have been sucked into the right-wing bullshit machine yet... otherwise we'd be getting prayer alerts instead of hurricane watches. Or - more likely - the storms would be blamed on all the media going down to cover them.

Mac in Ga

[althecat]

53. GFS Now has Emily Hitting Yucatan Peninsula

... but that is way out in terms of hours.....

[Gay Green]

54. And she could turn north and enter the Gulf.

:scared:

[doni_georgia]

57. Is there an atmospheric trough? - and does ocean warming matter?

Someone - decidedly not an expert, of course - made a comment on TV in the aftermath of Dennis to the effect that 'Ivan dug a trench and now all the others are following it.' I'm not at all sure I buy that one, given the {less than academic) source, but there is a point to it. I don't have the meteorological background to verify this, but it makes sense to me that a certain amount of atmospheric trough effect could occur in a situation where there is a dearth of outside factors to disrupt it. Given the models of Emily's projected growth, coupled with the way Dennis seemed to explode in the southern Caribbean, I really have to wonder, because there's not much acting on either storm.
And after watching Dennis carefully for a week, and watching this one take a very parallel though slightly more southerly couse, I have a bad feeling that this one's also going to head for the Gulf. If I had to take a W.A.G. on this one, I would say Louisiana. I have a track of Dennis posted on my cubicle with Emily's positions charted, and the two don't look to be more than 50 to 100 miles apart in their tracks at this point (Dennis actual vs. Emily projected).

Also... I have to think that an increase in ocean temperature would have to generate stronger hurricanes. An increase of 1º in temperature of a glass of water wouldn't make a noticeable increase in the heat energy radiated by the water, because there's a lot of atmosphere in the cubic mile around that glass of water that can absorb the entropic cooling of the water. However, a cubic mile of atmosphere receive a great deal more energy from the additional heat radiated by a square mile of water under it (which is itself the upper surface of two cubic miles of water underneath) Increase in ocean temperature would cause a greater convection in the water, since warm water rises, releases its energy, cools and sinks. That radiant energy has to go somewhere, greenhouse effect or otherwise (though a greenhouse effect would only exacerbate the problem). In a reliatively dry, high-pressure area, the heat would radiate into space, and no harm done. But in an area of high atmospheric humidity, the additional energy would heat the water vapor in the air, causing it to rise (just like the water under it) until it cools in the higher atmosphere and sinks. This creates a vertical convection - warm air rising, cool air sinking. The coriolis effect of the earth's spin - which generates the major wind patterns of the entire globe, like the trade winds - creates the spin effect. When you have increased convection, you get thunderstorms and, along an energetic, moving front, tornadoes. When you add this to the spin effect, you get a cyclonic system. The effect feeds on itself until acted on by an outside force - wind shear or a land mass, or a change in water depth from the abyssal plain to the continental shelf.

Assuming I have the basic physics of all this generally correct - and I'm not sure; I was much better in mechanical physics than in fluid dynamics - then an increase of tropical systems would seem to follow naturally from a water temperature increase, even of only one degree. The additional heat has to go somewhere, and since an ocean is not a closed system - its surface touches the atmosphere - some of that additional energy has to go into the atmosphere. (If this were not true, we couldn't exist, since the sun would not radiate any of its energy, either.)

Any thoughts or corrections on this?

Mac in Ga

[althecat]

60. I am not a meteorologist either... but from what I hear.

1. In the latest discussion on Emily but one from NHWC ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al052005.discus.008.shtml? ) they remarked that while normally hurricane's leave behind colder water this was not the case with Dennis as he moved a lot of warm water into areas where emily was likely to go....

"WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE
BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD
BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO. "


2. Ivan is far far too old to have any long range troughing effect... in fact if you watch isobaric maps you will see that atmospheric pressure areas are constantly on the move therefore the trough idea sounds like a lot of BS to me....

3. Yes the warmer the water the more energy supplied to the Hurricane... the Hurricane is effectively converting this thermal energy into kinetic energy, the hotter the water the more growth you are likely to see in the Hurricane... in particular the Carribean waters are hot to greater depths than those in the Gulf.. hence their greater capacity to build hurricane strength..

[Zynx]

62. Ivan is anciant history - that "expert" is full of it.

However, Dennis will have some effect on this one.

As far as the other point - warmer water should mean warmer hurricanes. The tricky part is that hurricanes move in their own macro cycle, so its hard as hell to graft that onto warming and say AHA!

[althecat]

59. Nasa Modis Pic Of Emily... from yesterday

[althecat]

66. The Big Question... Where does Emily Make Landfall? Mexico? Texas?

I have been looking at the long range GFS forecasts for a few days... they seem to have Emily cross the Yucatan peninsula and then hang around off the Mexico coast for a few days strengthening before making a dash for the Mexico border... with the most recent run showing a south of the border landfall of a significant hurricane on July 21st.



I note however that these forecasts have been gradually moving Emily back to the north over the past few days. If this pattern continues then anywhere from Texas to LA is potentially vulnerable.

It is notable that the long range forecasts now have Emily making a Gulf Coast landfall...

[althecat]

67. Newer picture from the NOAA GFS Model of Mexico/Texas Landfall

[althecat]

68. NHWC Update - Emily About To Become A Hurricane

000
WTNT65 KNHC 140154
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
955 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005
...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.

AT 955 PM...0155Z...THE RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.

FORECASTER KNABB



$$