Half of US voters want Bush out; put Bush and Clark in dead heat: poll

[NNN0LHI]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20031011/ts_alt_afp/us_iraq_bush_poll&cid=1506&ncid=1480

NEW YORK (AFP) - A rising number of US voters would replace US President George W. Bush in the 2004 elections, a new poll said, while Bush is in a statistical dead heat with Democratic hopeful Wesley Clark.

Fifty percent of voters would replace Bush, according to the Newsweek poll, up three percentage points from 47 percent in a similar poll conducted September 25-26.

Clark was preferred by 44 percent of registered voters and Bush by 47 percent -- a dead heat in a poll with a three-percentage-point margin of error.

Clark topped the list of Democratic challengers, followed by Joseph Lieberman with 13 percent support, Kerry with 11 percent, Dean with 10 percent and Gephardt with eight percent.

more

[bahrbearian]

1. Isn't that pretty low ratings for an Imcumbent?

[grytpype]

2. Like Father, Like Son... One Term and Done

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. The Apple Doesn't Fall Too Far From The Tree

NT

[Spazito]

3. This is good news!

No matter how the Bush cabal tries to put pretty ribbons around the horrors in Iraq, the deficit, etc, more and more of the public aren't buying it!


Edited to add: Please rate after reading!

[GOPBasher]

4. Excellent news so far.

If the economy comes back and Iraq is settled, I think things will turn around for Bush, but right now his numbers are sinking fast! :)

[calimary]

24. Those are some mighty big "if's" - and mighty long odds against 'em.

I don't see that he can go anywhere but down, especially as the "Traitor-gate" affair heats up. Which it will because the CIA is pissed and won't let this go. He could try drumming up some stunt. Sounds like he has his eyes on Syria at the moment. But I think he's in some trouble now. Iraq isn't going to simmer down any time soon. Besides, if CONdi has a larger role to play in manipulating Iraq, it's doomed for sure. Her reverse Midas Touch is as colossal as his. That's probably why they get along so well.

[Raenelle]

Great news, andfinally a poll. It's been about 2 weeks.

Actually, I was wondering why the silence from pollsters over the past two weeks.

I know I read a column that said that the next batch would be important. Bush had fallen, and the next batch would show if the fall had continued, stabilized, or reversed.

Looks from this like his fall has stabilized. He still has that other half of the bell curve--the ones who watch Fox news, believe Bush is a strong leader and a good man because Pat Robertson says so, and who think, with the economy the way it is, it's a good thing they don't have Union dues to pay or Democrats in office raising their taxes.

[hedda_foil]

5. Not just Clark. They're easily all within the MOE of each other.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm .

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Oct. 9-10, 2003. N=826 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

.

"Suppose the next general election for president were being held TODAY and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and , the Democrat -- who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican, or , the Democrat?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush Wesley
Clark Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
10/9-10/03 47 43 10
9/25-26/03 49 43 8
9/18-19/03 47 43 10
.

George
W. Bush Howard
Dean Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
10/9-10/03 49 40 11
9/25-26/03 52 38 10
9/18-19/03 52 38 10
9/11-12/03 53 37 10
7/03 53 38 9
.

George
W. Bush John
Kerry Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
10/9-10/03 48 42 10
9/25-26/03 50 42 8
9/18-19/03 48 43 9
7/03 50 42 8
.

George
W. Bush Dick
Gephardt Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
10/9-10/03 49 42 9
9/25-26/03 53 39 8
7/03 51 42 7
11/02 56 37 7
.

George
W. Bush Joe
Lieberman Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
10/9-10/03 50 42 8
9/25-26/03 51 42 7
7/03 52 39 9
10/02 60 33 7
.

"In general, would you like to see George W. Bush reelected to another term as president, or not?"

Yes No Don't
Know
% % %
10/9-10/03 44 50 6
9/25-26/03 46 47 7
9/18-19/03 44 50 6
8/21-22/03 44 49 7
7/24-25/03 49 43 8
7/10-11/03 47 46 7
5/1-2/03 51 38 11
4/10-11/03 52 38 10
11/02 49 42 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[DoveTurnedHawk]

8. What Spin Is This?

Clark is down by 3 to Bush, which is within the MOE of +/- 3.

Dean is down by 9, Kerry by 6, Gephardt by 7, Lieberman by 8. Those are all outside of the MOE, and at least twice (or thrice, in Dean's case) as wide of a loss margin to Bush as Clark.

Clark is out best bet against Bush, which is just common sense when you consider that he's a military Southerner perceived as moderate, and an outsider to boot.

DTH

[Julien Sorel]

22. Pay attention to Dean' s appearances.

He says in them all now, 'any of the frontrunners will beat Bush according to the polls I read, so the question is, do you want to elect someone who will change things.' This is pure Deanhonesty at work: all the polls I see show Dean getting beat by Bush, and/or faring worst of all the Dem candidates. But of course, he now has to say this, as a means of taking his shaky electability off the table. The other problem I have is, how exactly is Dean the candidate of change, since the bits and pieces of his enunciated plans are pure status quo. Looking at his program, he's running as a socially more liberal Bush, who's a better manager, who will focus on fiscal responsibility. It's Rockefeller Republicanism, and not different from what any of the other leading candidates is offering; yet to judge by Dean's shyster rhetoric, you'd think he had Kucinich's platform.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

28. Dean Also Claims He's Leading in Various States

Where post-Clark-entry polls show him trailing.

DTH

[WesWinger]

7. So long Dubya

The Age of Wes has come. Jump in and enjoy the ride of a lifetime because Wes is THE MAN to beat Dubya and his chickenhawk cronies.
This country will come back into the hands of the people!

I wish you a fond hello!
WesWinger:toast:

[SWPAdem]

9. Welcome to DU

from another Clarkbar :toast:

[Mz Pip]

13. Welcome WesWinger

:hi:

MzPip
:dem:

[newyawker99]

17. Hi WesWinger!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. Confirms the CNN poll- it's Clark and Kerry as the closest

Clark down 4 and Kerry down 6, (and Dean and Gephardt down 7).

[DoveTurnedHawk]

11. Dean Is Down 9, Not 7 (eom)

DTH

[NewYorkerfromMass]

25. I misread- you are correct

damn!

[karlschneider]

12. Yeah, well 3 years ago MORE people voted for Al than Bunnypants...

like HALF A MILLION more.
:grr:

[Mz Pip]

14. Sweet

I think that it's pretty telling that a guy few people have ever heard of is in a dead heat with the Leader of the Free World (gak).

Can't wait to see how things will be when people actually start paying attention.

MzPip
:dem:

[Rose Siding]

15. The Dem part of the poll is 6% MoE

377 registered vs likely. All the articles about Newsweek polls try their hardest to lump the smaller Dem group in with the broader poll:

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Oct. 9-10, 2003. N=377 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide. MoE ± 6.
.
"Now I'm going to name nine Democrats in the race for president. After I read you their names, tell me which ONE you would most like to see nominated as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate in 2004. Here are the choices . . . ." Names rotated

10/9-10 9/25-26 9/18-19 7/03 1/03
% % % % %
Wesley Clark 15 16 14 n/a n/a
Joe Lieberman 13 9 12 13 22
John Kerry 11 10 10 10 13
Howard Dean 10 12 12 12 4
Dick Gephardt 8 10 8 14 13
John Edwards 6 6 6 6 14
Al Sharpton 5 4 7 6 6
Carol Moseley Braun 5 2 2 3 n/a
Dennis Kucinich 1 2 2 2 n/a
Other (vol.) 1 2 1 1 1
None (vol.) 5 5 3 3 4
Don't know 20 20 19 23 13
Bob Graham n/a 2 4 7 5
Gary Hart n/a n/a n/a n/a 5

http://pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[jburton]

16. How will they spin this?

My guess: "Half of the repondents hate America."

[DemCam]

20. lol

[sushi]

18. I keep my fingers crossed

the news will only get better, but a week is long in politics, let alone a dozen months.

[Jackpine Radical]

19. Sorry folks. Wrong sample. These polls mean nothing.

Did anybody ask the Diebold and ES&S machines how THEY plan to vote?

[GOPBasher]

21. That's exactly it.

I'm more and more optimistic about winning in 2004. That is, IF we actually have a fair election. And as you pointed out, that's an awfully big "if" at this point.

[KittyWampus]

23. Clark Has To Consistently Poll 5% Above Junior

Beating margin of error...

It's the "too close to call" crap that allows elections to get thrown.

[farmboxer]

26. Clark/Dean For 2004

I think that ticket could win, but Democrats need to stop fighting each other and start fighting against the fascist Republicans!

[truthisfreedom]

27. fighting each other? we aren't! surprisingly, i'm discovering that repug

s are fighting each other a lot more these days.

there've been numerous stories about dems shaking hands on both sides of the Dean/Clark line. we're all good. let's watch as the primaries come to life next year.