Bush Approval Rating Back Up, Poll Says (CNN, I have a bridge..)

[Noordam]

AP News

October 13, 2003
Bush Approval Rating Back Up, Poll Says
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 4:06 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Bush's job approval rating, which had slumped in several recent polls, has bounced back to 56 percent in a CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll released Monday.

In mid-September, the president's approval was at 50 percent in a similar poll and at 49 percent in an NBC-Wall Street Journal survey -- some of the lowest numbers of the Bush presidency. But the recent poll, conducted Oct. 10-12, shows the president's standing with the public improving.

Citing a specific reason for the change is difficult, said Gallup Executive Editor Frank Newport, who instead mentioned several possible factors for the recent increase. Newport pointed to signs of an improving economy, including the uptick in the stock market; the Bush administration lobbying on Iraq and media coverage of the California recall that pushed criticism of the president off the front pages
..more at article...

[bif]

1. Bull

.

[jokerman93]

9. Must have been...

those fake letters from the troops that are turning the tide. What a stroke of genius!

Hey -- These polls are meaningless. If Bush recovers from bombing Iraqistan for his big business contributers, it'll be accomplished by equally underhanded means.

See? I've been corrupted by my cynicsm.

[forgethell]

10. Does it matter to you

or Bush* HOW he wins, if he wins. Underhanded or not, it's four more years.

[Wickerman]

32. Well, for the man who offered to bring honor and integrity back to the WH

and failed miserably its safe to say that he has no concern about how he wins in '04, just so he does. Nor are his corporate handlers concerned how he gets the nod to run this country into the ground for another 4 years.

[papau]

45. A little deeper and we get "same as Jan 92" - and Wash Post poll on Wed

will be much more interesting to DU - and not quite so happy for Bush!

"President Bush scored a 56 percent job approval rating, up from the low point of 50 percent last month, but USA Today 's Susan Page says that "The unease that voters express now is at almost precisely the same overall level that a similar survey found in January 1992."

From ABCNote Tuesday

[jenk]

2. I can't believe it's as high as 56%

I could believe a brief uptic to 51 or 52% maybe

listen, it was bound to happen with the Recall pushing leakgate off the front page, and the spinning of the economic news.

[name not needed]

7. not for long.

the leak is taking over the news and this new bombing in iraq wont help either. expect a dip in approval ratings.

[Whoa_Nelly]

27. All the polls--Not as high as is reported

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/pollkatzcontentpage.html

[oxycontinrush]

35. So the true figure may not have cracked 50% yet?

I'm looking at the raw data. The trend looks excellent, but if you add up all the data, Dubya might still be a couple of weeks away from cracking 50%.

Thanks for that. More data is always better.

[jamesinca]

37. looking at the raw data

I am seeing 5 of the polls at 50% or less and 4 above 50%. I also notice that Gallup has always rated Bush higher than other polls. I don't ever see Bush going to or under 50% in any Gallup poll. Likewise, I don't see Zogby rating him very high ever. All things taken into consideration, I believe the averageshave him at 50% and I think the trend will take him under 50% by the holidays.

Here is my tinfoil hat theory: He needs to stay close to 50%, if he falls to 5% approval, it will be hard to believe he is a landslide winner, or even a close call winner. If he is at 50% of so, the close race can be justifed by the supporting polls. If he has a 90% rating, they won't have to try to justify a victory as suspicious.

[otohara]

3. Judy W. Was Saying It's

people making over $75,000, those who dally in the stock market. 19% increase in these folks.

Hmmm. our stock took a dive, it's gone forever. but then we don't make $75,000

[0007]

30. So they only poll those folks making over 75K, 'eh?

Sounds like spin to me.

[glitch]

4. "Citing a specific reason for the change is difficult"

I bet.

[Newsjock]

5. 16-point rise among those earning over $75,000

CNN said this in their minute of gloating over this poll. They said the rising stock market has made America's wealthy happier.

[diplomats]

12. We'll have to see what other polls show

A Newsweek poll has Bush's rating at 51 percent. BTW, CNN/Gallup is normally 4 or 5 points higher than other polls. When they dropped to 50 percent that put them in line with the others. I also think Arnold had something to do with this.

[otohara]

13. Gushing, Gloating, Drooling

Jr.'s PR campaign working on sheeple making more money. Thank God GDubya is the preznit. CNN is right there to reinforce the media manipulaton.

I can't watch Crossfire today - I'm afraid of this new poll being touted, make me sick

[Flubadubya]

24. So, do they only poll the rich?

Phew!

[hadrons]

6. proir to Sunday's bombings, I noticed a lot of "things aren't too bad" ...

in Iraq and such and with those stories and California, I could see a small move upward with the more sheep-like minded Americans ... still Iraq and the economy aren't going to get any better anytime soon

[Classical_Liberal]

8. There has been a lull in the pursuit of scandals

We need to start talking about leaker(traitor) again.

[CShine]

11. A-HA!!! Look at THIS!

Last paragraph of the article:


The poll of 1,004 adults had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The margin of error was slightly higher for subgroups such as registered voters, plus or minus 4 percentage points; and Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, plus or minus 5 percentage points.



Now notice that the margin of error for the whole poll is 3 percent, but it's 5 percent for Democrats. When the margin of error is higher for people on the left than it is for the whole poll, that means the poll had relatively few left-wingers in it, and an unusually large number people from the right.

Think this might have something to do with the sudden aberration this poll showed, hmmmmmmmmm???

[underpants]

14. Good catch and Welcome to DU (link to poll tracking)

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/pollkatzcontentpage.html

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/

[diplomats]

15. Well, the margin of error is higher for Dems

because Dems were just a subgroup of the total, probably 300-400. The smaller the number, the higher the margin of error.

[PlanetBev]

16. I saw this garbage during my lunch break

CNN commentators were so excited that their eyes were pinwheeling. I'm going to my first Wesley Clark meet-up tonight. I wonder why I'm even bothering...

[lindashaw]

29. I'm going to my first Wes Clark meet-up, too, and it's very important

that we both.

[papau]

17. Nice catch - Newsweek is later and still shows him down.

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Oct. 9-10, 2003. N=1,004 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?"
Approve Disapprove Don't Know
10/9-10/03 51 42 7
9/25-26/03 52 40 8
9/18-19/03 51 42 7
7/24-25/03 57 34 9
5/1-2/03 65 26 9
4/10-11/03 71 23 6
9/12-13/02 70 23 7
12/13-14/01 81 11 8
10/18-19/01 88 8 4
2/8-9/01 52 25 23

Gallup Poll and CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll
.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?"
Approve Disapprove Don't Know
10/6-8/03 55 42 3 1,017
9/19-21/03 50 47 3 1,003
9/8-10/03 52 43 5 1,025
8/25-26/03 59 37 4 1,009
8/4-6/03 60 36 4 1,003
7/25-27/03 58 38 4 1,006
9/13-16/02 70 26 4 803
1/25-27/02 84 13 3 1,011
2/1-4/01 57 25 18 1,003

[diplomats]

21. The CNN/Gallup poll is a new one and is Oct. 10-12

But check this out:

"In the survey, 53 percent of registered voters said the president deserves a second term, 45 percent said he does not.
Still, the poll hinted that the 2004 race appears close at this stage. Thirty-eight percent said they would definitely vote for Bush, 38 percent said they would definitely vote against him and 24 percent said they were unsure."

Only 38 percent said they would definitely vote for Bush, but 53 percent said he deserves reelection and 56 percent approve of his performance? Looks to me like the poll is nothing but a temporary (and likely illusory) "boost" for Bush.

[papau]

31. Then in Gallups world no change! 9/19 Zogby at 45%, G at 50, now

world at 50 and Gallup on 6-8 at 55, and on 8-10 at 56%

And the stratified sample appears to include a much lower % of Dems than the likely voter population.

Is Gallup saving money using "interns" to validate the math?

[htuttle]

22. Another thing about the demographics

If it was primarily Americans making over $75,000/year who were 'happier' in this poll, and it swung up 5 or more percentage points, what's wrong with this picture?

What percentage of Americans make over $75,000/year, and exactly HOW happy do those people need to be to swing the poll that far?

[ameriphile]

34. If the margin of error for these polls is +/- 3%

then the "increase" in Bush's approval rating is statistically insignificant. Put another way, it doesn't exist.

Here's what I mean:

The poll from 9/19-9/21 showed a 50% approval rating. A 3% MOE means that it could be as low as 47% or as high as 53%.

Similarly, this most recent poll, reporting a 56% approval rating, means that it could be as high as 59% or as low as 53%.

Thus, the "actual" approval rating in each poll could be the same-- 53%.

:)

[Jackpine Radical]

36. Sorry to rain on your theory, but

the margin of error is strictly a (non-rectilinear) function of sample size. Since the number of Democrats in the sample is smaller than the total sample size (presumably about half), the MoE has to be larger.

[shockingelk]

38. unfortunately, no.

any subgroup of the entire poll will have a higher margin of error.

Ie, a poll of 1000 people may have a margin of error of 3%
a poll of 600 people has margin of error of 5%

[JCMach1]

43. Exactly-- someone needs to call them on this BS

:grr:

[fizzana]

18. Meaningless

One isolated poll is meaningless.

All that matters is November 2004.

Look at it this way.

In 2000 Gore had a slight edge (500K votes). It's also likely that some Green votes will go to the Democrats this time (buyer's remorse among some at least)

The issue then will be which is greater -

(a) People who didn't vote for Bush but have since been persuaded to vote for Bush.

(b) People who voted for Bush but will now either not vote or vote against Bush.

I have no way of telling where we'll be in Nov 2004 but I'll bet right now the numbers in column (b) are greater than those in column (a).

[patdem]

19. It is PROOF the media has been spinning Iraq...a bullet in the brain and

no pulse and not breathing is NOT proof of death. The media just spins those sorts of things out of control. Bush on the other hand is going about convincing Amurika that all is well and that dead soldiers are only a liberal propaganda machine...Hey...see how Arnhuld gets a bullet in the brain and comes back??? why not OUR BOYS? :grr:

[jenk]

20. Hannity has hold of it now

.

[Snellius]

23. 100% of those who disapprove of Bush will vote

His supporters will be less motivated. Note re-elect numbers are still very low.

[radfringe]

25. Newsweek Poll

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Oct. 9-10, 2003. N=1,004 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?"
Approve Disapprove Don't Know

10/9-10/03 51 42 7
9/25-26/03 52 40 8
http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

[diplomats]

26. Notice, too

how CNN didn't publish any poll results when Traitorgate broke, but waited until the recall came along to take heat off of Bush.

[Flying_Pig]

28. If this it true, which I doubt, part of blame lies with some of the

Congressional Dems for not taking this lying, fascist idiot to task for his lies, deceptions, and crimes, and demanding the truth.

I'll say it again,..... There are a number of Congressional Dems who are complicit with Bush, PNAC, and Israel's Sharon, in promoting war in Iraq, and other areas of the ME. Because of this, they are not speaking up on the floor of the House, or the Senate, to take this usurper to task.

If this keeps up, they are going to hand this fascist bastard a victory in 04'. We must start calling these Dems, and demand they publicly call for accountability from Bush, and stop supporting the Bush/PNAC/Sharon cabal in their efforts towards world conquest, and the theft of land and oil in the ME. Every vote they give on something like sanctions against Syria (which many did last week, voting with the likes of Tom DeLay), or more money for Israel's current government, is strengthening the cabal, and weakening our nation, and our democracy.

For the cause of supporting Israel, hell or high water, these Dems are empowering the PNAC neocons, helping Bush towards his "re-election" (sic), and helping the cabal create a fascist regime.

These Dems can either be a part of the problem, or part of the solution. Whichever, the time for choosing sides is here.

[corarose]

33. It's up for the Sheeple to think that Jr is a good pResident

What a crock of SHIT!

The fake media has to push it up so that they can steal the sElection in 2004.

[Snellius]

39. Deleted

Nothing to see here. Move on.

[Gem]

40. Rumsfeld/Gallup were college roommates

I recently read. The article said that during Reagan or Bush I when Rumsfeld was there also, he prevailed on Gallup to ask the right questions, delay announcing results, etc. to favor the administration.

[onehandle]

41. Lou Dobbs had a smile on his face today...

...and his desk was three inches higher than usual. He surrounded himself with other whores who also enjoy the taste of Bush's semen.

He actually connected this to the economy and said this was something to be happy about.

One of the other whores said the jump in his numbers was mostly from people making $75,000 or more. Secondly, men. Duh!

[leesa]

42. Bullshit! Nothing has gotten ANY better to pull them up.

[FrenchieCat]

44. Yeah, Sure....whatever they say

We already know that poll is lying....just like the colonel's love letters signed fraudulently.

FRAUDULENT:
ElectionS
Supreme Court rulingS
pResident
economy
tax cuts
War
end of War
media
Letters from the front
polls
voting machines
food

IS THERE ANY LEFT THAT'S for REAL????????? yeah, Me!

[BadGimp]

46. Must be the new "glo"

[TOhioLiberal]

47. Yeah right.....

<snip>
Citing a specific reason for the change is difficult, said Gallup Executive Editor Frank Newport, who instead mentioned several possible factors for the recent increase.

Like your boss telling you to bump up the numbers to keep the WH happy? :argh:

*MY* approval rating for him is about -1000%. Looking forward to 2004 when we can tell Bush & his gang 'goodbye and don't let the door hit ya in the a$$ on the way out!'
Then it'll be :party: time!
Trekkerlass

[SOS]

48. Approval vs. re-elect

His approval ratings are not very meaningful.
His re-elect # is 40% . Can't win an election with 40%.