Signs point to global influenza oubreak--WHO warning

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L22175059.htm

GENEVA, July 22 (Reuters) - Indonesia's first human bird flu case, coupled with more birds dying elsewhere including Russia, are signs a long-dreaded global influenza pandemic may be approaching, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Friday.

Health officials fear the virus will mutate and mix with human influenza, creating a deadly pandemic strain that becomes easily transmissible and could kill millions of people.

Margaret Chan, WHO's new director for pandemic influenza preparedness, said there had been no known sustained human to human transmission of the deadly virus, but called for stepping up disease surveillance among poultry and humans worldwide. snip

RISK LEVEL THREE OF SIX

Chan, a former health director of Hong Kong who helped contain its bird flu and SARS outbreaks of 1997, said the WHO's risk assessment of a global pandemic still stood at three on a scale of six.

[justinsb]

1. We have enough vaccine to take care of a small outbreak area

if it's quarantined quickly. A few million doses I think. This is serious and it's going to be devestating when/if it comes. I was listening to a WHO guy talk about SARS and he said that their immediate reaction when SARS was detected was to sigh with relief because they were afraid it was H5N1 (Avian Influenza). The death toll worldwide could easily be in the millions, perhaps tens of millions and they think it will happen fast once it gets going.

[kestrel91316]

5. "Quarantine" influenza??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I'm afraid not, sweetie.


:scared: :cry:

[Ian David]

10. I could hear some of the bosses I've worked for saying...

"I don't care if there's a lethal strain of the flu going around. I need everyone here in the office today. It shouldn't be a problem. There's almost no traffic and the trains are empty."

Some of my bosses have been such assholes about things like that, I've been tempted to intentionally wipe snot on their keyboards and phones when I was sick.


'Presenteeism' Hurts Employees and Employers

Sluggish Employees Cost Companies More Than Sick Days

By Jennifer Warner
WebMD Medical News
Reviewed By Brunilda Nazario, MD
on Friday, April 23, 2004

April 23, 2004 -- Employees who come to work even when they're aren't feeling well may end up costing companies more in lost productivity than their employers pay for sick days and other medical and disability benefits.

A new study shows that work slowdowns caused by illness on the job, known as "presenteeism," may account for up to 60% of employer health costs. Researchers say the findings suggest that companies may need to take another look at their health care spending.

More:
http://my.webmd.com/content/article/86/98895.htm?action=related_link

[LibertyorDeath]

24. I call it snotties Revenge!

What do you mean tempted. LOL :)

" I've been tempted to intentionally wipe snot on their keyboards and phones when I was sick."

[pandemic_1918]

14. Military Enforcing Quarantine in China

Locals in China are not happy with military enforcing mandatory quarantine for bird flu

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=military+h5n1

[kestrel91316]

36. You can quarantine people, but ....................

you ain't never quarantining a flu virus. WAAAAAAYYYYYYY too contagious.

I know my germs. BS in Microbiology, DVM also.

Edited for idiotic spelling error.

[CAcyclist]

11. Not Necessarily

There's no way knowing if the current vaccines will cross-protect if the H5N1 strain mutates. What we will only be able to use to protect ourselves with is Tamiflu and that's not a vaccine, but an antiviral.

[Ian David]

2. All the major vaccine manufacturers have same-sex partner benefits

Tell the fundies to boycott flu vaccines.

[Raster]

4. you're a bad man. bad. heh heh heh

[Puglover]

8. Now that is really bad and really funny.

Seriously through after reading about Iran executing two teenage boys I'm thinking a a global pandemic would'nt be so horrible.

[progressivebydesign]

3. Man, those people at WHO are total downers. n/t

[CrispyQ]

6. A dark tale of . . . fantasy?

The White House Rodeo

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1110-29.htm


snip...

"I am the pale rider and my name is Plague."

"I bet your first name is Bubonic?"

"No, that's my cousin. I'm the avian influenza pandemic."

"I'm sorry, but have I heard of you?"

"The World Health Organization says I am an unprecedented threat to humanity. The world is utterly unprepared to deal with my arrival."

"Well, that's one helluva blurb."

"Yes, and my grandfather killed 100 million people in 1918-19."

[Zorbuddha]

27. Nightmare, not fantasy.

50% mortality rate, melts your lungs in a couple of days, travels by migratory birds as well as human air travellers.

This is very real, and probably unstoppable.

[barb162]

7. I love those last two paragraphs...what the hell is with China

"Chan also said that the WHO, a United Nations agency, was still pressing China to allow international laboratories to examine specimens from birds in Qinghai, where the H5N1 virus has killed more than 5,000 birds from five species.

The WHO is urging China to test the other 184 species in the area, fearing birds which appear healthy could also spread the disease. This would help understand the evolution of the virus and inform public health decisions, according to Chan."

--------------------
It seems China likes to cover things up, doesn't it? Didn't they do that big cover up a few years ago too and it exploded in their faces?

[Ian David]

9. Have you ever been to a hospital E.R. during a regular flu epidemic?

In September 2003, my mom went into the hospital for a routine gall bladder operation, and had severe complications. She spent a month in a coma on a respirator. She had congestive heart failure twice. Aspiration pneumonia. She was permanently colonized by two resistant strains of staph bacteria. And she got emphysema.

In January of 2003, my mom was staying with me and caught the flu. She was having trouble breathing. I gave her medical history, including the fact that she still had a stent in her liver that needed to be removed.

It was the midst of a typical, seasonal flu epidemic and the E.R. was swamped.

Even with my mom's symptoms and history, we still had to wait 3 hours to be seen. That was after waiting over an hour to speak to the triage nurse.

They were urging people who weren't urgently sick to go home or go to another hospital.

There were people in the waiting room throwing up blood. One kid's mom said her son was throwing-up "mouthfuls of black blood," and the nurse said that he'd have to wait. There's a lot of that going around."

My first thought was, "My god, are they covering-up an Ebola outbreak?"

Of course, I was (almost certainly) wrong about that.

But it gave me an idea.

I asked the head nurse how they could ever expect to respond to a real pandemic or biological attack if they can't even handle a seasonal flu outbreak?

I suggested that every hospital should make it policy to use seasonal flu epidemics as "practice-runs" for biological emergencies. I asked her why didn't she break-out the emergency procedures guide and follow the directives for a biological attack?

I still think that's a good idea.

Hospitals-- or cities-- should use seasonal flu epidemics as practice runs for responding to pandemics and biological attacks.

[barb162]

12. Nope

I sure hope your mom is way better now. We were talking last night about complications from gallbladder problems....

[oscar111]

16. lanDB: staffing wd end ER crowds: And what also about 48 hr shift sleeplss

Hospitals are run by strange minds.

Like groceries with long checkout lines, ER crowds are easily ended with

STAFFING.

enough staff, and crowds end.

Our hospital chains "have so much cash profit now, they have trouble finding places to invest it"

Saving on ER staff is obviously how they are getting titanic wealth.
===============================
Did you know a former NYC asst. DA got a law passed, "no more 48 hour shifts for interns".. and recently a tv crew found that several NYC hospitals were just ignoring the new law?

They're still having a sleepless intern stich up your carwreck-torn heart vessels.

Isnt this practice a proof of our medical establishment being either sadistic or insane?

An observer from a century in the future would surely say so.

[hallc]

21. huh?

Our hospital chains "have so much cash profit now, they have trouble finding places to invest it"

I don't know where you are getting that quote from, but I can tell you that any hospital I have ever worked at would LOVE to have more staff...however, they a) can't afford it, or b) there isn't any more staff! I agree that ER waits are shorter with more staff...its finding that staff that is the problem.

[oscar111]

38. For-profit hosps, i meant. CORRECTION here.

sorry, i should have been more specific.

eating crow right now.

The quote referred to the big chain for-profit

hosps.

Such as the chain owned by the Frist family, IIRC. {how are the HMO's doing now with profits?}

Your are correct about some hosps.

Especially the city hosps for the poor. Cut, cut , cut. Tragic, horrid.

Those with huge profits can find saff, it seems to me. That problem doesnt exist, seems to me. IMHO.

eg, import.

They have imported Phillipino docs even, to be nurses. Odd, not a typo. And of course, Phill. nurses as such, to be nurses here.

Indian docs are all over.

I dont see any shortage. Am i wrong? Let me know, not sure of this point.

Also, nurses leaving the field .. i hear it is because docs are so disrespectful of them. Administrators could stop that, and also the overworking of nurses.

Cutting doc income to human scale would also help. Talk about bloated. Now watch the doctor-worshippers fire away LOL.

[pandemic_1918]

15. Raging Pandemic in China

Word leaking out on raging flu pandemic in China

http://news.google.com/news?q=raging%20bird%20flu&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=wn

[oscar111]

19. Human bird flu raging in China?

interesting link, 1918.

I went there, found a site hosted by a virologist, seemingly reputable guy.

he machine translated a story which i partly read.

Any other sources on this major, \

MAJOR

story?

sure will be headlines if true,

big as JAPAN BOMBS PEARL HARBOR: WW2 BEGINS.

[hallc]

22. Pandemic_1918

I don't have enough posts to PM you...but I wanted to ask you a question...You seem very well versed in virology and bacteriology - This is a huge interest of mine. What are some website you go to that you find are informative besides the cdc, who, and recombinomics? Just lookin for some interesting web sites to surf...and you do a fantastic job on keeping up with emerging outbreaks btw. Have you been following the Marburg outbreak in Angola? last I heard the mortality rate was somewhere around 90% - much higher than the normal 20%. Good thing they seem to have it contained.

[oscar111]

13. RECOMMEND FOR GREATEST PAGE button at bott OP

and urge all to make the gov prepare with Tamiflu pills.. stockpiling them

[oscar111]

18. Print out the OP and hand it out as fliers

and the earlier post, months ago, about bush not doing enought about getting the ordinary flushots, just like last year.

IIRC, the same company was failing to supply again. And bush again has only three or so suppliers.

England had many more last yr.

Shortages again was the articles message.

use search feature on DU to find the post, i dont have it.

Tamiflu, also not eno being made, last i heard.. these pills help with bird flu! Get 'em while you can, if you can wrangle a RX.

What will make bush stockpile flushots and Tamiflu pills?

[gulfcoastliberal]

17. I'll chime in with my usual post urging all DUers to stock up on Tamiflu

Since there's not going to be a vaccine for H5N1 in time, hoard doses of Tamiflu NOW - once this thing breaks out there won't be any available. Over 25 governments worldwide are stockpiling this drug:

BASEL - Over 25 governments around the world have placed orders for stockpiles of Roche Holding AG's influenza treatment Tamiflu in preparation for a potential outbreak of bird flu in humans.


Roche pharmaceuticals chief executive Bill Burns told reporters on Wednesday that the firm had received orders from at least 25 countries which are following the advice of the World Health Organisation (WHO) in stockpiling the drug.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Swiss drugmaker posted a 22 percent rise in drugs sales for the first six months of the year, helped by strong demand for Tamiflu.

Burns confirmed that Roche was still in talks with Germany and also with the US government about increasing stocks of the drug.

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/31740/story.htm

[spotbird]

35. Where would we get it?

Doctors only allow stockpiling for their own families.

[gulfcoastliberal]

44. Online pharmacies

You have to pay cash but they'll fed-ex it to you. Expensive but worth it. Simply do a google search for Tamiflu online.

Here's one link, I am not promoting this site in any way, it's just to give you an idea of the cost and type of website you should look for.

http://dreampharm.com/Tamiflu_online.html

[eShirl]

43. or Amantadine

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07180502/H5N1_Amantadine_Stockpile.html

[Massachusetts]

20. Let the thinning of the Human species begin.

Mother Nature ALWAYS has her way, and there AIN'T a DAMN thing we can do about it!

[hallc]

23. It won't thin us out that much

And to be frank, if it does thin out any populations, it will be the elderly and young children. The reason the 1918 pandemic was so lethal was because there were no antibiotics to cure the secondary bacterial infections that are common with influenza. However, from what I have read about the outbreak in Asia, it seems this virus works pretty quickly, so I may be completely wrong.

[daleo]

37. The 1918 vaccine was unique in killing mostly young adults.

Perhaps I should say preferentially killing young adults. And it could kill all on its own, from my reading.

[hallc]

41. Well, I own a book on the pandemic

With extensive research. And the cause of most of the deaths was bacterial pneumonia

[daleo]

46. OK, it sounds like I was wrong about that.

I was under the impression that the virus itself could kill, but I suppose it mainly gave pneumonia the opportunity to go after people that it normally has trouble infecting. Does the book agree about the idea that it was mostly young adults that were killed, because that is the impression that most of my reading has conveyed?

I had a little experience with some kind of pneumonia bacteria a while back (I think it was that anyway), so I know they can be very persistent and dangerous. It took several types of antibiotic to get things under control.

[LibertyorDeath]

25. TAMIFLU

http://www.pharmacy-online.ca/quick_search.jsp?criteria=TAMIFLU

[Zorbuddha]

26. Might ameliorate symptoms

if used within 48 hrs of infection. How are you going to know you're infected? It's asymptomatic in the early phase.

[LibertyorDeath]

28. This medication works by stopping the flu virus from growing

"This medication is also used to prevent the flu if you have been exposed to someone who already has the flu (e.g., sick household member). This medication works by stopping the flu virus from growing. It is not a substitute for the flu vaccine. (See Notes) Oseltamivir should not be used in infants younger than 1 year of age. Consult your doctor or pharmacist for more details."

[Zorbuddha]

29. It is an antiviral

It mitigates symptoms by limiting the viral load until the immune system can cope, hopefully. How are you going to know you've been infected and should administer it?

This is not much help.

[LibertyorDeath]

30. To prevent the flu, take oseltamivir usually once a day for at least 7days

Ok so a Family member gets the flu so then you start popping your TAMIFLU
Or you take public transit or your co-workers have the flu.


How are you going to know you've been infected and should administer it

You won't but you may know if you've been exposed.

[Zorbuddha]

32. You might

In certain situations.

[bonito]

31. keep some ionic silver on hand

its easy to make and cheep.

[oscar111]

39. art bell blasted ionic silver

said it made him feel awful.

IIRC.

fm about seven years back.

comments?

[bonito]

47. well all i can say it works wonders

But don't take my word for it, try it for your self. I was at a point where my wife was dying from serious infections, she was a goner for shure, till I took it in my own hands and used it, and she lives many times over because of it. theres so much misinformation and disinfomation out there you just got to find your way through it.

[lady lib]

33. My damn doctor refused my request for Tamiflu

when I called and asked 2 weeks ago. I think it's ridiculous that I might have to find another doctor over this.

[tavalon]

34. Use an online pharmacy

Overseas or if you would rather get it from an American source (it costs more) use an American online pharmacy.

[oscar111]

40. anyone who can write a book on Tamiflu, home-making it,

how to make tamiflu at home, would surely make a fortune from book sales LOL.

looks like a best seller to me , judging from this thread.

[eShirl]

42. try to get Amantadine then

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07180502/H5N1_Amantadine_Stockpile.html

[lady lib]

45. Hey everybody: Do read eShirl's Recombinomics article.

My reading of it (and correct me if I'm wrong) tells me that the type of treatment depends on the particular strain of flu. The strains out of the Vietnam region are sensitive to Tamiflu, but at a higher than recommended dose (and who knows what that dose is going to be). The mice tested at the standard dose still had 50% mortality rate. But the strains from China are sensitive to amantadine. The good news about amantadine is that it's a generic and less expensive, and it's used to PREVENT and treat the flu (Influenza A). The bad news is that it's also a Parkinson's medication, so there are contraindications and possible serious side-effects. You can't take it if pregnant/nursing, have seizure disorder, liver or kidney problems.

So...I'm thinking of waiting a little bit to see which strain is migrating. The other very expensive option is to stock up on both.