STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 26 July

[ozymandius]

Tuesday July 26, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 179 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 218 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 282 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1339
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 25, 2005

Dow... 10,596.48 -54.70 (-0.51%)
Nasdaq... 2,166.74 -13.00 (-0.60%)
S&P 500... 1,229.03 -4.65 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.25% +0.02 (+0.57%)
Gold future... 425.90 +0.90 (+0.21%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

TUNNEL VISION

-cut-

This past week, Chinese officials revalued their currency by 2% versus the U.S. dollar. Their currency will now be pegged to the value of an, as yet, undisclosed basket of currencies. Many pundits have already made claims that the revaluation is trivial and too small to have meaningful impact – and far short of what Washington wants. Of late, China has funded much of America’s profligacy.

With China removing their currency’s hard peg to the U.S. dollar, there will be reduced need for them to buy U.S. dollars going forward. This will curtail America’s ability to maintain or grow its trade imbalances and continually grow their National Debt – which is conservatively estimated to be the number below – and coincidentally, just happens to be a hole of a different kind:

U.S. Debt to the Penny: $7,905,575,144,504.41

The event(s) outlined above began with the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. They have been arguably occurring in slow motion ever since. It would seem that the Chinese are perhaps telling the Americans to stop digging and put their shovels down – they’ve finally made it.



more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Existing Home Sales Set Record in June

Existing Home Sales Set Record in June; Home Prices Climb at Fastest Pace in Nearly 25 Years

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Existing homes were sold at the fastest pace in history last month, and the median price set a record as well. But some private economists predicted housing may be nearing its peak as mortgage rates begin to rise.

In June, existing homes sold at an annual rate of 7.33 million units, an all-time high and an increase of 2.7 percent from the seasonally adjusted sales pace in May, according to a report Monday from the National Association of Realtors.

The gain reflected a 2.4 percent rise in sales of single-family homes, which climbed to a record of 6.37 million units at an annual rate. Sales of condominiums also set a record, rising by 4.5 percent from the May level to an annual rate of 966,000 units in June.

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050725/economy.html?.v=15

[ClintonTyree]

3. My question............

how many of these "record home sales" are first time buyers and how many are being bought on speculation for investment purposes?
I know in our area, Rochester, NY, the housing boom has pretty much passed us by, EXCEPT for those who are looking for income property in the future. There is tremendous speculation buying going on around here and I fear that many of these people are going to be sorry in the not too distant future. I wonder how many people nationwide are in the same boat?

[RawMaterials]

4. Well in my area

Cincinnati, we have been passed buy. I have been looking for a house on and off for the last 2 years, house's that were once 120 are now 180. All most people have done to the house is paint and maybe a bad dry wall patch job(that must be worth 60k). The sick thing is out of all the house we go to look at a good 80-90% are vacant. the owners of the house's are not budging on price and think they are going to get it, our Realtor says that they keep track of house raises and price reductions in the last week their have been 180 reductions and 10 raises(this has been like this for a couple of weeks now). I think I'm going to wait the market out for the next year or so, I'm young and my income is rising(slowly) but i figure with my wife starting to work this year we should be in a better position next year.

[jimbot]

66. Two issues with looking at price raises.

Starting this with the caveat that I am not a realtor, nor do I follow the housing industry. It would make sense that there are many more price reductions since most people don't increase their asking price after putting their house on the market. Also for family homes, the prime time starts on Memorial Day weekend as most people with families would prefer to move when the kids are out of school. The closer you get to labor day, the more likely you would be to decrease your asking price.
All that said, you would probably be interested in two key pieces of information:
The change in the ratio of current price to original asking price
AND
The same time series data from last year.

That said,
Mortgage rates can't stay continually low in the face of fed rate hikes but if you are looking to move now, it is uncertain if prices will be better in a month or a year or five years.

Hope this helps.
--JT

[54anickel]

7. Bubble's fallout? Two views

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/columnists/all/stories/072605dnbusdimartino.d1130ff.html



There's a good chance the housing bubble carries severe macroeconomic implications, a point Alan Greenspan disputed in his congressional testimony last week.

If prices fall, he said, "they likely would be accompanied by some economic stress, though the macroeconomic implications need not be substantial."

Let's start with some factoids from Merrill Lynch:

•Real estate accounts for 70 percent of the rise in household net worth since 2001.

•Forty percent of private-sector jobs created since then are housing-related.

•Consumer spending and residential construction have accounted for 90 percent of U.S. economic growth.


60 percent bubble

Merrill's analysis concluded that 60 percent of the country is in a housing bubble. I don't see how the other 40 percent escapes the fallout.

more...

[54anickel]

5. Why are the Dems Caving in on Cox?

I posted this late in yesterday's thread, thought it was worth a repeat. Sort of slipped under my radar.

http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0725-22.htm

In a better world, next week's Senate confirmation hearings on the nomination of Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach) to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission would be the Democratic Party's finest hour. The hearings offer a perfect opportunity to decry Wall Street's looting of Main Street and to put the GOP on trial for creating the conditions under which corporate criminals flourished.
Instead, Democrats have been eerily silent on Cox, a right-wing Republican who wrote a 1995 law making it harder for investors to take corporate swindlers to court. Cox's Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, which became law over President Clinton's veto, has been blamed for allowing some of the nation's worst financial scandals — including those at Enron and WorldCom — to proceed unchecked. The law let corporate executives off the hook for exactly the kind of utterly misleading statements Enron Chief Executive Kenneth Lay made to keep his company's stock price artificially high.

Indeed, Cox — who President Bush has tapped as the best possible choice to be Wall Street's top cop — is the poster child for how laissez faire, country club Republicanism took trillions out of the pockets of Americans. If the Democratic Party can't find it within itself to stand against putting Americans' life savings in Cox's hands, the party doesn't stand for anything.

Consider his record: As a congressman, Cox voted repeatedly in the interests of Wall Street investment houses to undermine conflict-of-interest standards protecting investors and pension plans. He has voted against post-Enron proposals that would require executives to certify financial statements, strip bonuses from CEOs who falsify statements, and stop stock analysts from holding shares in the companies they cover (although he did ultimately vote for the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate reform bill when it became a fait accompli).

more...

[KoKo]

6. Agree....why aren't they?

I wondered if some of the info about him was going to be out in the media, but haven't seen anything besides this article. Maybe Krugman will talk about him? :shrug:

Thanks for posting this. :hi:

[54anickel]

9. Good morning KoKo1. Great to "see" you again. Yes, it's an interesting

"oversight" by the media and the Dems. The old "choose your battles wisely" mentality? So wtf is Hillary doing worrying about sex in video games? :shrug:

It is starting to get some attention though. Too little, too late?

Investor Advocates Question SEC Nominee's Record
http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1122294930976

On the eve of the first Senate confirmation hearing to consider the nomination of Rep. Christopher Cox, R-Calif., as head of the Securities and Exchange Commission, investor advocates are raising concerns over his fitness to serve as chairman.

Public Citizen, a Washington-based consumer advocacy and lobbying group, issued a report Monday that said, "The anti-investor record of Rep. Christopher Cox ... should disqualify him from leading the agency."



UPDATE 1-US SEC nominee Cox, two Dems to face Senate panel
http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=fundsNews2&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050725:MTFH68565_2005-07-25_19-45-31_N252196:1

WASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - Rep. Christopher Cox, the White House's pick to head the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, will face tough questions on stock option accounting and his record as a private-sector lawyer at a Senate hearing on Tuesday, congressional aides said.

But these and other flashpoints, like mutual fund governance and hedge fund regulation, look unlikely to derail Cox's bid to become the nation's top market cop, they said.

With Congress focused on filling a Supreme Court vacancy, changes at the SEC are being overshadowed with swift confirmations probable for both Cox and two Democratic SEC nominees, the aides said.

Barring controversy, all three nominations "could be confirmed by the (banking) committee and the full Senate before the Senate summer recess," said Jesse Jacobs, spokesman for Maryland Senator Paul Sarbanes, senior committee Democrat.



A Step Toward a Shift at SEC
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/25/AR2005072501726.html

A Senate committee holds hearings today on a package of nominations to the Securities and Exchange Commission likely to alter the political balance of a body that has been dominated in recent years by an alliance of two Democrats and its retired Republican chairman.

Investor advocates yesterday sounded alarms about the nomination of Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Calif.) to be chairman, replacing William H. Donaldson, who rankled some lawmakers and trade groups by voting alongside the panel's two Democrats on several key rules. Cox's arrival would tilt the power at the agency firmly in favor of the Republicans, some legal analysts said.

[punpirate]

8. The answer to your question might be found in...

... this phrase: "Cox's Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, which became law over President Clinton's veto...." That could not have been done without the aid of some Democrats, in both houses.

Wall Street spends a lot on campaign contributions (best ROI, ever), and the Dems don't want to be left out of that gravy train.... *sigh*


edit for syntax.

[54anickel]

10. When can we take our party back so we can start to take our

country back for ALL the "non-upper" class people? This "two-party" system has become a tragic joke.

[VegasWolf]

65. The "two party" system works for the wealthy though. There's the

party during the day and then the all nite long party going on!

[UpInArms]

26. with the almost complete takeover of both parties by

corporate interests (with no end in sight), and with graft rapidly becoming a way of acceptable (albeit questionable) ethics (see DeLay), the lack of opposition is not as startling as we would think.

It all makes me so sad. :(

There was a story out there yesterday about the graft in Russia - well, it is just as bad here.

With corporations being given the "personhood" label, it would appear that those that can come closest to being "friendly" to those "persons" would be everyone's "choice". :puke:

On a personal note: It will be an abbreviated day here for me - others will have to post the afternoon activities so that I can catch up on them later.

:hi:

[UpInArms]

44. Cox vows to uphold securities laws

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B50FD5E5A%2D7D9B%2D40FC%2D91DE%2D10420E0ED6B5%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Rep. Christopher Cox, President Bush's nominee to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission, said Tuesday his top priority as chairman would be "vigorous enforcement" of U.S. securities laws.

In remarks prepared for his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Cox also said that he will work to ensure the SEC's rules keep pace with technological advancement and to safeguard the financial system in the event of another terrorist attack.

Cox, a 52-year-old Republican congressman from Southern California, hailed the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act, saying the law is "absolutely necessary" for the integrity of U.S. markets.

Bush nominated Cox to lead the SEC on June 2, following the retirement announcement by former chairman William Donaldson.

In choosing Cox to head the agency, Bush signaled his intention to move away from the Donaldson era. Cox is a conservative who has won high ratings from business groups, while Donaldson angered some Republicans and business organizations with some of his votes and with what they saw as his regulatory zeal.

<snip>

In a briefing Monday, Joan Claybrook, president of Public Citizen, said Cox's voting record is "atrocious from an investor's point of view." The group released a report saying that Cox's record shows he puts corporate interests above those of investors.

...more...

...more...

[54anickel]

47. Talk is cheap, while his record speaks volumes. That "advocate for

smaller government" defense just doesn't wash with me. Smaller government when it comes to rules and regulations of corporations, bigger government when it comes to reigning in civil liberties and keeping the working class down.

However, Cox struck a decidedly investor-friendly note in his prepared statement.

"The commission must be vigilant on behalf of investors, and stalwart against fraud and unfair dealing," Cox told senators.

[KoKo]

77. "54" and "UIA's" here's an article from WaPo about Cox with some reasons

why there's not much of an outcry:

------------------------------------------------------------------

A Step Toward a Shift at SEC
Senate Panel to Consider Nominations of Chairman, Two Commissioners

By Carrie Johnson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, July 26, 2005; Page D01


A Senate committee holds hearings today on a package of nominations to the Securities and Exchange Commission likely to alter the political balance of a body that has been dominated in recent years by an alliance of two Democrats and its retired Republican chairman.

Investor advocates yesterday sounded alarms about the nomination of Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Calif.) to be chairman, replacing William H. Donaldson, who rankled some lawmakers and trade groups by voting alongside the panel's two Democrats on several key rules. Cox's arrival would tilt the power at the agency firmly in favor of the Republicans, some legal analysts said.

Cox, 52, is a self-described free-market conservative who sponsored legislation that requires shareholder lawsuits to meet a higher burden of proof. He also opposed the treatment of stock options as an expense in corporate financial statements. The liberal advocacy group Public Citizen said yesterday that such moves should disqualify Cox to serve as SEC chairman.

But none of the lawmakers on the Banking Committee has publicly opposed Cox, in part because the White House is pairing his nomination with those of two Democrat-backed candidates. Sens. Paul S. Sarbanes (D-Md.) and Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) said last week that they hoped all three nominees would be approved by the full Senate by the end of the month.

More....
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/25/AR2005072501726.html?sub=AR

[54anickel]

78. If investor groups are that upset perhaps they need to speak with

their dollars. TPTB ain't gonna listen to anything else.

Couple other interesting bits from your article:

snip>

The nominations come at a time of profound unrest at the agency, which has fought to restore investor confidence after accounting failures at Enron Corp. and WorldCom Inc. In recent months, the five-member panel has been split by personal and philosophical disputes. Meanwhile, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is pressing the SEC to relax some initiatives on the ground that the agency has overreached.

snip>

"There is no question the chairman will likely be the deciding vote and determine the direction of the commission as a voting body," AFL-CIO lawyer Damon A. Silvers told reporters in a conference call, urging senators to question Cox aggressively. "A majority of the commission that's bent on deregulating the markets could do enormous damage."

snip>

Nazareth, 49, joined the commission in the late 1990s as a lawyer to then-chairman Arthur Levitt. In her current role, Nazareth advanced a controversial plan to restructure the trading system. She is a former executive at Salomon Smith Barney and Lehman Brothers Inc. Her husband is Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson Jr.


I don't know what's going on, but it sure seems like a rush job to me and that doesn't quite smell right. But I have no idea. What was that controversial plan of Nazareth's anyway?

Here's another earlier article

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/4218699?f=insidecfo
snip>

Both individuals were recommended by Senate Democrats, according to Bloomberg. Published reports point out that the nominations could help clear the path for the confirmation of Rep. Christopher Cox, the conservative Republican from California who has been nominated for SEC chairman. He would serve the remaining four years of the term of outgoing commissioner Harvey Goldschmid.

The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs scheduled a confirmation hearing for Tuesday morning for Cox, Campos, and Nazareth.

"So far as one can tell, what it means is the three nominations will go through in a hurry,'' former SEC commissioner Edward Fleischman told Bloomberg.

The wire service also noted that the Business Roundtable and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce are not too happy with Nazareth. "Since the regulated community is most affected by the Division of Market Regulation, which has been Ms. Nazareth's bailiwick up to now, naturally there are folks in that group who disagree with Annette on a number of matters,'' Fleischman told Bloomberg.

[Mojorabbit]

11. FOREX-Dollar forges higher as focus swings to U.S. data

LONDON, July 26 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed on Tuesday after China's central bank played down talk of a further yuan revaluation and before U.S. economic data that could underscore the case for more dollar-supportive interest rate rises.

The euro shrugged off a survey showing improving business conditions in Germany, Europe's largest economy, and a Reuters report quoting euro zone central bank officials saying European Central Bank rates are unlikely to be changed this year.

"With U.S. data coming out this week, people are expecting it's going to confirm the bullish U.S. outlook story and more rate rises in the U.S.," said Chris Gothard, currency analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman.

U.S. consumer confidence data due at 1400 GMT was expected to cement expectations that U.S. interest rates will continue to rise. The confidence index was expected to rise to 106.0 in July from 105.8 in the previous month.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050726:MTFH83264_2005-07-26_11-46-04_L26151605:1

[54anickel]

12. US urged to issue 30-year paper

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/d54dd5e0-fd70-11d9-b224-00000e2511c8.html

The Bond Market Association has urged the US Treasury to reintroduce the 30-year Treasury bond in February, saying the industry body's survey showed strong potential demand for long bonds.

The BMA said on Monday it had submitted a letter to the Treasury, saying the reintroduction of the long bond would increase flexibility in the US government's debt management and could help it lower borrowing costs.

The Treasury withdrew issuance of the 30-year bond in November 2001, but the government's finances have since swung dramatically into the red. However, the Treasury had held back from resuming long bond issuance, as this could be seen as an admission that it expected large budget deficits to remain in place.

Micah Green, president of the BMA, said: "It was not surprising that the results of our survey showed strong interest in bringing back the 30-year bond, as we believe it could reduce Treasury's risk and improve . . . flexibility as well as provide investors with greater access to sound, long-term investment options."

more....


Do suppose they're a bit leery of a mass exodus from the precariously perched stock market by pension funds? Perhaps Snow is waiting for the stock market to get pumped up a bit more this next quarter from the repatriated funds and M&A activity? :shrug:

[54anickel]

13. China's Rebalancing Tactic (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050725-mon.html#anchor0

snip>

The global impacts of this development cannot be minimized. As a general rule, the most important thing to keep in mind is that currency adjustments need to be treated as relative price shifts. Accordingly, a revaluation of the RMB is likely to have more of an impact on the mix of global activity than on its level. At the same time, financial-market effects should show up more in the form of shifts in spreads between asset prices rather than in their absolute levels.

For China, that means a stronger currency will undoubtedly put pressure on its export-led growth dynamic. This conclusion could well apply to other Asian economies as well. Since the financial crisis of 1997-98, Asia has become an increasingly China-centric region. It follows that Asian currencies are likely to mirror adjustments in the RMB -- precisely the market’s initial response to the 21 July move. If, in fact, Asian currencies continue to move in concert with subsequent RMB adjustments, the pan-regional export-led growth dynamic could also become increasingly challenged, in my view. This will heighten the pressure on China and the rest of Asia to stimulate domestic demand in order to compensate for a shortfall in external demand -- facilitating a long overdue rebalancing of the pan-regional economy. This will also have the important effect of absorbing the region’s excess saving -- especially for developing Asia, where the overall saving rate is estimated to have surged to 38.2% in 2004 relative to the 28.8% norm of the 1983 to 2000 interval.

This takes us to the other side of the rebalancing equation -- namely, to the Asian-led financial flows that have become critical to the sustainability of America’s imbalances. With Asian currencies now in play and focus shifting to stimulus of the region’s domestic consumption, Asia’s so-called “saving glut” should be drawn down -- thereby curtailing the external funding available for the massive US current account deficit. At the same time, China’s shift to a currency basket hints at a long overdue diversification of Asia’s enormous portfolio of official foreign exchange reserves. According to the Bank for International Settlements, pan-Asian reserves (including Japan) totaled $2.4 trillion as of February 2005 -- fully 64% of the global total. The BIS also estimates that dollar-denominated assets accounted for about 64% of the world’s total foreign exchange reserves in early 2005 -- well in excess of America’s 30% share in the global economy (at market exchange rates). These trends are not sustainable, in my view.

By abandoning its peg, China is sending a clear signal that its “natural” demand for dollar-denominated assets is likely to be reduced. Stephen Li Jen notes that China’s trade weights would imply only a 27% weight of the dollar in the new currency basket; adding in the still dollar-pegged Hong Kong currency would raise the dollar weight to about 50% -- well below the current 64% portion that the BIS would impute to the dollar-denominated share of official reserves. Other Asian central banks have also been massively overweight dollars, and they are likely to rebalance their reserve portfolios as well. That’s especially true of the Bank of Korea, which has expressed such concerns several times in the past year. It is also true of the Bank Negra Malaysia, which was quick to dismantle its peg in favor of a basket system in the immediate aftermath of China’s 21 July move. Collectively, Korea and Malaysia held $272 billion in official foreign exchange reserves in early 2005 -- amassing Asia’s third largest reserve pool behind Japan and China. Monetary authorities in both of these countries can now be expected to diversify out of dollars.

Dollar diversification could well set in motion adjustments that might prove quite vexing to America’s asset economy. Other things being equal, dollar diversification is tantamount to dollar depreciation. And that raises the distinct possibility that America’s creditors will then seek compensation in the form of an increased interest rate premium. The key in this instance is the pace by which that compensation is provided. Under the presumption of a gradual further revaluation of the RMB, that premium should be reflected mainly in the form of wider spreads, or yield differentials, between US- and non-dollar-denominated interest rates -- precisely the markets’ reaction in the immediate aftermath of China’s 21 July action. In the event of a disorderly diversification out of dollars, both the level and the spreads of US interest rates could be adversely impacted. That would then put significant downward pressure on ever-frothy US property markets and on asset-dependent American consumers. While I would attach a low probability to the dollar-flight scenario, I would certainly concede that it shouldn’t be ruled out.

more...

[UpInArms]

14. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 90.04 Change +0.44 (+0.49%)

Dollar Recoups Losses as Traders Shift Focus Away From China and Back To Interest Rate

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2427&Itemid=39

US Dollar
It has been fairly quiet in the currency markets today with the economic calendar extremely light and the market still assessing the potential implications of China’s exchange rate regime change. For the most part, the majors except for USDJPY has given back most of its China-induced gains or losses. The size of the move seems to be a disappointment for many while the time table for any additional announcements is still unknown. This weekend’s papers were littered with different views about what China will do next and what this means for the markets. Most expect more moves to come and significant longer-term ramifications. As a result, we could be waiting weeks or even months before China makes another move. So in line with the market’s short attention span, traders have already shifted some of its focus back to the interest rate story. With the US expected to raise rates once again in August and the ECB continuing to stand pat, the dollar’s longer term concerns and even the US’ call for more currency flexibility from China has fallen to the sidelines. However we caution traders from brushing aside China’s announcement too quickly. The head-honcho of monetary policy, Central Bank Governor Zhou confirmed that this is an "initial 2% adjustment" and that they will gradually continue to reform the country’s exchange rate system. As time progresses, currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar will be the most heavily impacted with Japan getting a boost in external competitiveness and Canada benefiting from what is pretty much a 2% discount on their commodity exports. When the components of the managed float basket is announced, we expect another sharp move higher in the currencies that are to be included in the basket. Like Singapore, China will probably refrain from disclosing the actual percentage breakdown of the basket. In the meantime though, while we are waiting for China to make another announcement, we expect to see more talk of China’s appetite for snapping up companies around the world, including here in the US. This interestingly timed move (less than a week after the US time-stamped a possible move), seems to be more like a political compromise than anything else. Meanwhile here in the US, we have a fairly busy week with the Beige Book, durable goods, Chicago PMI and GDP on the calendar. Existing home sales surged to a record high in June, confirming that the Federal Reserve will have more work to do in the months ahead.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

24. Dollar forges higher as focus swings to U.S. data

http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050726:MTFH83264_2005-07-26_11-46-04_L26151605:1

LONDON, July 26 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed on Tuesday after China's central bank played down talk of a further yuan revaluation and before U.S. economic data that could underscore the case for more dollar-supportive interest rate rises.

The euro shrugged off a survey showing improving business conditions in Germany, Europe's largest economy, and a Reuters report quoting euro zone central bank officials saying European Central Bank rates are unlikely to be changed this year.

"With U.S. data coming out this week, people are expecting it's going to confirm the bullish U.S. outlook story and more rate rises in the U.S.," said Chris Gothard, currency analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman.

U.S. consumer confidence data due at 1400 GMT was expected to cement expectations that U.S. interest rates will continue to rise. The confidence index was expected to rise to 106.0 in July from 105.8 in the previous month.

<snip>

"There is a growing realisation that the Chinese move last week was not as huge as some interpreted it to be," said Lee Ferridge, senior proprietary trader at Rabobank.

"Now people have worked out that it is not that significant a move."

...more...

[UpInArms]

39. Dollar rises as China clarifies policy

Last week's 2% yuan boost not 'initial' move, bank says

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B50A8B170%2D3D68%2D4134%2D85BF%2DEA134C390D8E%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - The dollar rose broadly Tuesday as China signaled it wouldn't be revaluing its currency again soon.

The news was pivotal for the dollar's rebound against the yen, which stands to gain in step with all Asian currencies if China's yuan appreciates. But China's clarification also translated into broad gains for the buck against its European counterparts. An upbeat reading for a key German economic indicator even failed to lift the euro.

<snip>

The Chinese central bank said Tuesday that any notion that last week's revaluation was only an initial adjustment isn't correct.

"A revaluation of by 2%, effective in the beginning of the exchange rate regime reform, does not in the least imply an initial move which warrants further actions in the future," the central bank said in a comment on its Website.

"It would seem that ... this statement today is designed to stress that the scope for movement in the yuan is even less than the market might have expected after last Thursday's announcement. This will probably serve to keep the dollar recovery intact against other Asian currencies," said Bear Stearns currency strategist Steve Barrow.

...more...

and:

Gold futures fall as much as $3 an ounce

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={B5E25610-7789-4E9D-9365-48B1AD5955FE}&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Metals futures are trading broadly lower in New York, pressured by strength in the dollar after China signaled it won't be revaluing its currency again anytime soon. August gold is down $2.80 at $423.10 an ounce and September silver is down 7.5 cents at $7.065 an ounce. Metals indexes are following suit, with the CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) down 1.3% at 81.76.

[UpInArms]

43. Dollar shakes off weaker U.S. confidence reading

So much for "focusing on the data" :eyes:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38559.4253880787-839115250&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- A report showing a dip in U.S. consumer confidence in July did little to spoil broad gains for the dollar already in place as Chinese officials overnight quashed expectations for further significant yuan appreciation. The euro was last at $1.20, up only a sliver from $1.1998 seen just before the report's release. The dollar remained up 0.5% against the euro on the day. The dollar was worth 112.46 yen, little moved by the data and up 0.9% on the day.

[UpInArms]

15. Northwest Airlines reports 52.2% rise in fuel costs (from year ago)

and their first response is to cut jobs and freeze pensions

8:52am 07/26/05 NORTHWEST AIRLINES Q2 FUEL PRICES UP 52.2% VS YR AGO

8:53am 07/26/05 NORTHWEST AIRLINES Q2 AVG DAILY LOSSES $4M

8:51am 07/26/05 NORTHWEST AIRLINES Q2 REVS $3.2B, UP 11.3%

8:51am 07/26/05 NORTHWEST: FAILURE TO CUT COSTS MAY LEAD TO BANKRUPTCY

8:49am 07/26/05 NORTHWEST AIRLINES SAYS NEES TO SAVE $1.1B IN JOB COSTS

8:49am 07/26/05 NORTHWEST AIRLINES SAYS NEEDS TO FREEZE PENSION PLANS

8:48am 07/26/05 NORTHWEST AIRLINES Q2 LOSS $2.59 VS LOSS $2.11

8:49am 07/26/05 NORTHWEST AIRLINES Q2 FIRST CALL EST LOSS $3.29

[54anickel]

32. Will the working class ever wake up to the fact that they are subsidizing

corporate Amurika and the rich?

- Tax cuts to the wealthy
- Pension cuts and bail-outs
- Job cuts for the bottom line
- Deficits as far as the eye can see for BeelzeBush's misadventures
- Loss of civil liberties in a "war effort" against terra that could be more easily handled if treated by normal criminal investigative procedures that already exist.
- Funding private contractors war profiteering
- Etc, etc, etc

Sheesh, we are in the midst of a class war and folks are too busy watching teevee to realize it.

[UpInArms]

16. Cyberonics sees Q1 loss of no more than 87c

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38559.3552311921-839111154&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Cyberonics (CYBX) said it expects its fiscal first-quarter loss to be no more than $21.5 million, or 87 cents a share and revenue of at least $26 million. For fiscal 2006, the company sees a loss of no more than $35 million, or $1.41 a share and revenue of more than $145 million. The maker of medical products used for the treatment of epilepsy and depression said it would require significant working capital investments and capital expenditures to achieve its fiscal 2006 plan. The company added that total sales in the epilepsy and treatment-resistant depression markets could top $1.2 billion by fiscal 2010. The stock closed Monday up $1.55 at $44.07.

[UpInArms]

17. Graft Watch: Sony BMG Settles Radio Payola Probe

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/25/AR2005072501624.html

NEW YORK, July 25 -- Sony BMG Music Entertainment admitted that its employees lavished cash, trips and other bribes on radio stations and their employees to get its music on the air in a settlement that is part of a wider investigation by New York Attorney General Eliot L. Spitzer into payola in the music industry.

At a news conference Monday, Spitzer said payola was "pervasive" in the industry and -- while it had assumed more sophisticated forms lately -- does not much differ from practices unearthed in scandals that have dogged the industry since the early days of radio.

As part of a settlement with Sony BMG, Spitzer unveiled yet another string of incriminating e-mails, this time from record-company executives, echoing similarly compromising e-mails from previous investigations he led of the brokerage, insurance and mutual fund industries.

In an e-mail last September, for instance, an unidentified Sony BMG executive complains that the company was paying too much in trips and gifts to the program director of Buffalo's WKSE-FM in return for airtime for the Sony BMG rock band Franz Ferdinand.

"Two weeks ago, it cost us over 4,000 to get Franz on WKSE," the e-mail said. "That is what the four trips to Miami and hotel cost."

...more...

[54anickel]

18. Pensions Freezing Out Younger Workers

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/24/AR2005072400609.html

NEW YORK -- Companies looking to cool their pension problems are freezing benefits for the workers least likely to complain.

This means cutting off new employees, or a combination of new employees and workers of a certain age _ often those under 40. Only people ages 40 and over are covered by federal age-discrimination labor laws, an area of growing concern to employers who are still reeling from age-discrimination lawsuits over so-called cash-balance plans.

snip>

In the past, employers that sought to freeze pensions would generally do it to all employees, pension experts said. Employers that wanted to protect a segment of workers from losing future pension benefits would typically focus on people ages 50 and up.

In more recent years, companies looking to freeze their pensions would generally have considered freezing them and then converting them to cash-balance plans, said Craig Copeland, a senior research associate with Employee Benefits Research Institute in Washington. The legality of cash-balance conversions is currently unclear, however, and employers are fearful of taking that route.

snip>

Now, employers that seek to freeze their pension plans are simply moving workers to the 401(k), said Sylvester Schieber, U.S. director of benefits consulting with Watson Wyatt in Arlington, Va. At the same time, they are being more cautious about who gets cut. Recent lawsuits over cash-balance plans have employers feeling "exposed to potential court cases and age discrimination laws," he said.

more...

[UpInArms]

19. Graft Watch: Fidelity says SEC may bring action in gift case

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002402069_fidelity26.html

BOSTON — Fidelity Investments said yesterday it could face civil action from federal regulators in a probe of whether its traders sent company business to brokerage firms that offered gifts and gratuities, rather than to firms offering the best deals on trades.

Fidelity, which has been investigated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) since last fall, said in a statement that the company had received a notice from the SEC that "the staff is considering recommending that the commission bring a civil action" against two of Fidelity's investment businesses, Fidelity Management & Research Co. and FMR Co. Inc.

Spokesmen for the SEC declined to comment, citing agency policy not to publicly discuss ongoing investigations.

Fidelity said it has been cooperating with the SEC and other investigations involving conflicts of interest related to brokers' gifts to traders at Fidelity and other firms.

Besides the SEC probe, Fidelity and rival mutual-fund companies face a gifts investigation by an industry organization, the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD). And a federal grand jury recently began investigating whether some of Fidelity's traders were given gifts by Wall Street bank brokers in an effort to win Fidelity's trading business.

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. Reuters Plans More India, China Spending; Stock Falls

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=a42FT2kmCYPA&refer=uk

July 26 (Bloomberg) -- Reuters Group Plc, the world's largest publicly traded provider of financial data, reported the first sales gain in three years and said it will expand in India and China. The shares posted the biggest drop in more than two years on concern costs of the strategy will erode earnings.

Reuters, which also pledged to return 1 billion pounds ($1.7 billion) to shareholders in the next two years, said in a statement the cost of the plan will eat into earnings and the company's profitability. UBS AG said 2006 profit estimates for Reuters may fall as much as 20 percent before rising after 2007.

<snip>

Reuters plans to reduce the number of data centers to 10 worldwide by 2010 from a total of 160 today. Glocer told reporters on a conference call that some product development jobs may go. The company expects the cuts to deliver a further 150 million pounds of cost savings by 2010.

By focusing on markets such as electronic trading and by providing different types of data analysis and news, the company expects to deliver 3 percentage points of revenue growth in 2008. That increase will be in addition to growth at its main business that Reuters says is between 2 and 4 percent a year in the ``long term.''

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. Treasurys edge higher, taking cue from currencies

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38559.3583686574-839111398&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The benchmark 10-year Treasury note edged higher as the bond market grew more confident that the impact from a Chinese currency revaluation in cutting that nation's demand for U.S. bonds as its reserves would be limited. The dollar was higher against its Asian counterparts, trading near levels seen last week before the Chinese central bank unpegged the yuan from the dollar. Worries about foreign demand drove the 10-year yield to nearly two-month highs. A report on U.S. consumer confidence was expected to be little changed at 105.9 from 105.8 a month earlier. The 10-year note was last 3/32 higher at 99 3/32, yielding ($TNX) 4.24% vs. 4.25% Monday.

[UpInArms]

29. US Treasuries mixed after China warns speculators

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-07-26T131824Z_01_N26329504_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, July 26 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries were mixed in early U.S. trade on Tuesday following a rally in Asia where bonds gained on news that China had played down talk of further revaluations of its yuan currency.

China's comments helped to reassure traders, who are waiting for consumer confidence data and an auction of TIPS later in the session, that the country's central bank was likely to keep pouring dollars into the U.S. bond market.

The People's Bank of China said on Tuesday in a statement on its Web site that last week's 2.1 percent revaluation of the yuan did not mean there would be further adjustments to the currency.

"That gave the long end a minor bid," said one bond trader at a Wall Street primary dealer.

<snip>

"This may not go so well. Two weeks ago the 10-year TIPS sale was quite poor despite prices cheapening into the auction. The bid-to-cover ratio on that was just 1.68 times, compared with 1.9 times at a previous sale," said a salesman at a U.S. investment bank in London.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. Treasuries investors turn aggressive in week-poll

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-07-26T130322Z_01_N26137490_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-TREASURIES-JPMORGAN.XML

NEW YORK, July 26 (Reuters) - Treasuries investors turned more aggressive than a week earlier after China's revaluation of the yuan and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's pledge of short-term interest rate hikes, a survey released on Tuesday shows.

Investors polled on Monday who said they were long Treasuries rose to 10 percent, up from 7 percent a week ago, according to a poll conducted by J.P. Morgan Securities.

The share of long investors climbed to its highest weekly level since the beginning of June, the bank said.

On the other hand, investors who shorted Treasuries rose to 47 percent from 45 percent, a seven-week low.

...more...

[UpInArms]

56. Treasurys find relief as China clarifies policy

Details in consumer confidence report prove offsetting

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B875DCCE8%2D6F50%2D4F11%2D94DA%2D112D219ACF97%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - The benchmark 10-year Treasury note edged higher Tuesday as the bond market grew more confident that the impact from a Chinese currency revaluation in cutting that nation's demand for U.S. bonds would be limited.

The closely-tracked 10-year government note was last 3/32 higher at 99 3/32.

The slim gain in price dropped its yield ($TNX: news, chart, profile) to 4.24% vs. 4.25% Monday.

The dollar was higher against its Asian counterparts, trading near levels seen last week before the Chinese central bank unpegged the yuan from the dollar, opting instead to let its currency float in a narrow band against a basket of currencies.

The Chinese central bank said Tuesday that any notion that last week's revaluation was only an initial adjustment isn't correct.

<snip>

Because its portfolio is heavy with U.S. bonds "it is not in China's interest to sharply curtail or sell off its Treasury holdings," said Mike Ryan, fixed-income research director at UBS, in a note.

Treasury-investment flow data "show that Chinese purchases of Treasury securities have climbed steadily, a trend that we would expect to continue since the currency revaluation seems too small to impact the massive trade deficit with China and the recycling of dollars into the Treasury market," Ryan said.

...more...

Circular logic: Because they have in the past, they will continue in the future?

[54anickel]

22. Bankruptcy filings rise as change in laws nears

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/general/2005-07-26-bankrupt-usat_x.htm

snip>

The number of bankruptcy filings surged 12% in April, May and June from the same period last year, according to exclusive numbers from research firm LexisNexis. That's quite a rise, considering filings were down 2.6% during the first three months of the year, LexisNexis says.

Consumers teetering on the edge are taking the bankruptcy plunge now because the new law attempts to curb the use of Chapter 7 bankruptcies and steer people into Chapter 13 proceedings. There's a big difference: Chapter 7 forgives most debts, while Chapter 13 only extends the amount of time to pay.

snip>

For instance, Citigroup, one of the USA's largest credit card issuers, said consumers front-running the new rules prompted a rise in bankruptcies that added about $175 million to credit costs in its North American credit card business in the second quarter. CFO Sallie Krawcheck told analysts that bankruptcy rates could moderate, but that there will "another spike up" before the law is enacted.

snip>

Others say the surge isn't as large as might have been expected. Timothy McFarlin, a lawyer in Irvine, Calif., says there would be even more cases if more consumers realized they still had time.

Also, rather than filing for bankruptcy, many consumers are tapping the equity in their homes, says Raymond Seo, a bankruptcy attorney in Long Beach.

more...

[UpInArms]

23. Today's Report:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Jul 26	10:00 AM	Consumer Confidence	Jul	-	106.5	106.2	105.8	-

[UpInArms]

37. U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RETREATS IN JULY

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={9F9D22DC-F9DF-48F6-A3E5-DFF86C4B698D}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer confidence dipped in July after a big gain in the previous month, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The consumer confidence index fell to 103.2 in July from a revised 106.2 in June, a three-year high. Economists expected the index to inch higher to 105.9 from the initial estimate of 105.8. The present situation index fell to 118.5 from 120.8, while the expectations index slipped to 93.0 from 96.4.

10:00am 07/26/05 U.S. JULY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BELOW CONSENSUS 105.9

10:00am 07/26/05 U.S. JULY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FALLS TO 103.2 VS 106.2

[ozymandius]

40. Layoff sentiments weighing?

People do realize there is a ripple effect, yes?

[54anickel]

49. I wonder about that. Do they really see the ripple effect and how all

things economic are related, or are they just a bit more concerned about their own a$$ when they hear about the huge number of layoffs. :shrug:

Not to under-estimate the Murikan public, but their track record of putting 2 & 2 together hasn't exactly been stellar for quite a while.

[barb162]

72. I think they are concerned mostly about their

own pockets and the worry about other getting laid off goes only as far as their own possible layoff may be more likely. Not many are putting 2 and 2 together in the macro sense because this was going on in the first Bush admin and he still got elected.

[UpInArms]

48. more info:

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/consumerConfidence.cfm

excerpting past the spin (from a Board's representative)

The outlook for the labor market was mixed. Consumers expecting more jobs to become available in the coming months edged up to 15.8 percent from 15.4 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs also edged up to 16.8 percent from 16.4 percent in June. The proportion of consumers anticipating their incomes will increase in the months ahead declined to 18.6 percent from 19.9 percent last month.

Consumers’ overall assessment of ongoing conditions was somewhat mixed in July. Those claiming business conditions are “bad” increased to 16.9 percent from 15.3 percent. However, those claiming conditions are “good” improved to 28.7 percent from 26.7 percent. The employment picture was also mixed. Consumers saying jobs are “hard to get” increased to 23.8 percent from 22.5 percent, but those claiming jobs are “plentiful” held steady at 22.5 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the next six months was marginally less favorable than in June. Those anticipating business conditions to improve declined to 17.6 percent from 19.5 percent. Consumers expecting business conditions to worsen edged up to 9.6 percent from 9.0 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Lockheed Martin (#1 defense contractor) profit up on missile system sales

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-07-26T124421Z_01_N26714597_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-ARMS-LOCKHEEDMARTIN-EARNS-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the No. 1 U.S. defense contractor, on Tuesday reported a better-than-expected 56 percent increase in second-quarter profit, helped by strong sales of electronic missile systems and information technology services.

Lockheed, whose weapons and aircraft are staples of the U.S. military, also raised its full-year profit forecast, sending its shares higher in pre-market trading.

Second-quarter earnings rose to $461 million, or $1.02 per share, from $296 million, or 66 cents per share, a year earlier.

Sales rose 6 percent to $9.3 billion.

<snip>

The company benefited from growth at its electronic systems unit, which includes information technology services and its tactical, or shorter-range, missiles.

...more...

[plasticsundance]

27. Mr Bubbles of a poor economist

When asked by a member of the House Financial Services Committee last Wednesday if there would be any benefit in returning to the gold standard, Greenspan came up with one of the most incredible utterances in all his tenure:

"I don't think so, because ... since the late '70s, central bankers have behaved as though we were on the gold standard."

He seems to think that Japan's stock and real estate bubble, as well as our own, would have happened just as they did if we'd been on the gold standard, and we would have managed to arrive at this same point of economic/financial disequilibrium.

However, that is absolutely false. Consider only the string of successively bigger U.S. trade deficits. Under a gold standard, we would have had to settle up with our creditors in bullion, not paper dollars. Which means that we would have run out of money -- real money -- long before we could have dug ourselves into our current debt predicament.

A friend who'd forwarded the above quote noted that if we were still on the gold standard, we would only remember Alan Greenspan as a particularly poor economist, rather than Mr. Bubbles. I happen to agree.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P121539.asp">Will China's float sink the housing bubble?

[UpInArms]

28. pre-opening blather

9:00 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Expectations remain set for the cash market to open higher, as futures indications hold steady above fair value... Meanwhile, investors continue to digest better than expected earnings reports (i.e. AVY, NCR and VLO) while modest profit-taking in oil prices, following a two-day surge of more than 3.0%, may also be underpinning an upbeat tone to early trading

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Positive bias persists in pre-market trading, still indicating a higher open for the indices... While strong earnings reports have helped stocks regain some upside momentum following yesterday's broad-based pullback, a report (10:00 ET) that could show consumer confidence rose to a three-year high in July may also be improving sentiment

8:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a higher open for the cash market as investors sift through another round of earnings reports... Strong Q2 earnings and encouraging guidance from Texas Instruments (TXN), coupled with upbeat reports from BDK, BNI, LMT and TLAB have also provided a floor of early buying support... DuPont's (DD) Q2 profits more than doubled but earnings of $0.90 per share, which fell $0.06 shy of forecasts, and a Q2 earnings miss from Verizon (VZ) may minimize blue chip gains

[UpInArms]

30. Countrywide profit falls 28 pct on mortgage drop

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-07-26T124209Z_01_N26132302_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-COUNTRYWIDE-EARNS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, July 26 (Reuters) - Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the largest U.S. mortgage lender, on Tuesday said quarterly earnings fell 28 percent after it sold fewer loans to investors and mortgage banking profit fell by nearly half.

The company also raised the low end of its forecast for 2005 earnings.

<snip>

Quarterly profit declined in part because Countrywide decided to spread out gains from making new loans rather than realize them in one quarter. The company has traditionally made loans, and then quickly sold them to investors and realized the gain. But it said it held onto $9 billion of loans that could have generated a $150 million pretax gain had they been sold.

Though demand for refinancings remains well off its mid-2003 peak, homebuying remains strong as interest rates stay historically low, and lenders develop new products to keep initial financing costs low as home prices spiral higher.

...more...

[UpInArms]

33. 9:43 EST roulette wheel in play

Dow 10,591.23 -5.25 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,171.84 +5.10 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,230.55 +1.52 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.242 -0.05 (-0.12%)

NYSE Volume 116,595,000
Nasdaq Volume 148,959,000

[UpInArms]

34. Burlington Northern profit jumps 47 percent (on hauling imports)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=marketsNews&storyID=2005-07-26T121507Z_01_N26121144_RTRIDST_0_TRANSPORT-BURLINGTONNORTHERN-EARNS-UPDATE-2.XML

CHICAGO, July 26 (Reuters) - Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (BNI.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the No. 2 U.S. railroad, reported a 47 percent increase in quarterly earnings on Tuesday as a boom in hauling imports overcame the cost of two big derailments.

Second-quarter earnings rose to $366 million, or 96 cents a share, from $249 million, or 67 cents a share, a year earlier. Analysts had expected 93 cents a share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Operating revenue rose almost 17 percent to $3.14 billion, topping the $3.07 billion analysts had expected.

With extensive operations at West Coast ports, Burlington Northern has been a major beneficiary of the surge in imported goods, carrying containers of goods from Asia on their way to U.S. retailers and manufacturers.

...more...

[UpInArms]

35. Wine tops beer as U.S.'s drink of choice

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B5D6AACD0-1C34-4DAB-8DFF-0749E887EE1E%7D&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Wine, for the first time, has outpaced beer as the most popular alcoholic beverage among U.S. consumers. In a Gallup poll conducted in early July, 39% of U.S. drinkers said they choose to drink wine most often, narrowly outpacing beer, at 36%, and followed by liquor, which has been gaining market share in recent years, at 21%. Gallup has polled on the topic since 1992. The survey's margin of error was four percentage points.

More evidence that Joe and Jane Sixpack are being joined by Wes and Wendy Wino.

Substantiating my claim:

THEY'RE DRUNK!

[mike923]

50. I like to ...

drink a glass of wine with dinner most nights a week. I don't think that makes me a drunk. Although if i get into my homemade wine, that's a different story. A bit more juice in that.

I think everyone would be better off, if they had a glass a night with their meal.

[UpInArms]

52. Welcome to DU mike923!

Glad to have you drop in to the SMW :hi:

My "They're Drunk!" comment is referring only to those that breathe their boozie breath on me at 10:30 a.m. and argue with me with stupidity - last argument was on Saturday, July 23 - drunk stated that Clinton was in office in 1990 and would not be budged with any facts.

:crazy:

[mike923]

63. Thanks and thanks...

for running this thread daily, i look forward to checking in on it through the course of my day.

Cheers.

[54anickel]

36. Japan loses taste for convertibles

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/66582e28-fd71-11d9-b224-00000e2511c8.html

snip>

Dealogic figures show a precipitous drop in the value of Japanese convertible issuance to $1.445bn in the first half of this year, compared with $11.621bn in the first six months of 2004. These figures only include deals that have underwriting agreements or purchase agreements at a single price at a single point in time.

The fall comes amid a broader decline in global convertible issues over the past year - a trend exacerbated by a slump in convertible bond prices in the secondary market that has hurt many hedge funds.

However, the fall in Japanese issuance is many times steeper than the global decline in convertibles over the same period. And because Japanese convertible bond issuance has been a solid source of revenue for investment banks in Tokyo, it will be closely watched by the wider financial world.

snip>

But some detect a more significant trend that is starting to change the face of corporate Japan: the spread of the western concept of shareholder activism. This has already changed corporate behaviour by boosting dividend payments, reining in capital spending and making management pay more attention of whatever large shareholders say.

snip>

One culprit is the syndicated loans market, which "has being going from strength to strength over the last few years", according to Jason Rogers, credit analyst at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. This reflects a broader global trend, driven partly by the fact that global financial markets are now awash with liquidity.

more...

[ozymandius]

38. 10:04 numbers

Dow 10,584.30 -12.18 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,169.27 +2.53 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,229.90 +0.87 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 42.47 0.00 (0.00%)
NYSE Volume 265,752,000
Nasdaq Volume 271,473,000

9:40AM: Stocks open to the upside as the overall positive nature of another batch of earnings data support a moderately bullish underlying sentiment... Even though Texas Instruments' (TXN 31.96 +1.36) demand is no longer the indicator for the overall economy it used to be, the market has placed heavy significance on the fact that TXN has beaten analysts' expectations by $0.03, issued encouraging Q3 guidance, raised its dividend and announced a share buyback...

But while TI's report has provided some support throughout technology, a disappointment from DuPont (DD 41.71 -2.33), which missed Q2 forecasts by $0.06 and merely issued in-line FY05 guidance, has kept gains on the Dow in check... Separately, July consumer confidence (consensus 106.2) will be released at 10:00 ET...

[UpInArms]

42. 10:09 EST kneejerk reaction corrected

Dow 10,595.85 -0.63 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,169.29 +2.55 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,230.73 +1.70 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.246 -0.01 (-0.02%)

NYSE Volume 299,360,000
Nasdaq Volume 303,484,000

10:11 (2 minutes later)

Dow 10,604.76 +8.28 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,171.71 +4.97 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,231.20 +2.17 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 42.47 0.00 (0.00%)

NYSE Volume 305,194,000
Nasdaq Volume 308,433,000

[UpInArms]

41. Lexmark stumbles as profit falls

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1A03E5D3%2D8364%2D4315%2DB26B%2D87BA0D961562%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Lexmark International on Tuesday reported a second-quarter profit that fell more than 40% from a year ago as the printing and imaging giant took a tax charge of $53 million.

Lexmark (LXK: news, chart, profile) said it earned $79.9 million, or 64 cents a share, compared to $136.6 million, or $1.02 a share during the same period a year ago. Lexmark said its results were affected by the charge related to the American Jobs Creation Act, which allows companies to repatriate foreign profits at a lower tax rate.

<snip>

Lexmark also said it would cut 275 jobs by offering early retirement and voluntary severance packages to certain employees through the first half of 2006.

The No. 2 printing company in the United States, Lexmark, said it expects to take pretax charges of $26 million for the job cuts, with $13 million of those charges coming in the company's current, third-fiscal quarter.

...more...

More jobs cut under the "Jobs Creation Act".

:banghead:

Why is it that every "Act" that has some gooey sounding name is actually the opposite of that "name"?

[UpInArms]

45. Fitch may downgrade RenaissanceRe debt ratings

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38559.4290899074-839115477&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Fitch Ratings on Tuesday placed the ratings of RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR) on rating watch negative. The agency said the move follows the receipt of a Wells notice by the reinsurer's chief executive, James Stanard, as part of the Securities and Exchange Commission's probe into an earnings restatement by the company earlier this year. Fitch said the rating watch negative status reflects its belief that there is a material possibility that Stanard may not be able to remain in his position for the long term, and that given the size of RenRe's senior management team and Fitch's understanding of the active role played by Stanard, the impact on the company's franchise and reputation is unclear should events evolve negatively.

Graft, corruption, generalized chicanery in all aspects of the USoA's economy.

[UpInArms]

46. Commentary: Corporate America is slimming down

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B87F4D2D3%2D6A2D%2D402D%2D861C%2D3F26C743DE2C%7D&siteid=mktw

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- A funny thing happened on the way to solid economic growth over the next few quarters: a sudden spurt in layoffs.

Buffeted by a wicked combination of rising costs and falling productivity Corporate America is doing what comes naturally: cutting staff. One after another, America's behemoths have announced that they plan to slim down.

In just the past two weeks alone, job cuts totaling around 90,000 have been announced by the likes of Sprint, Nextel, International Paper, Hewlett-Packard, Northwest Airlines, Kodak, Ford and Kimberly-Clark.

To put this figure in perspective, June's announced layoffs reached 111,000 - the most in 17 months, according to the outplacement firm of Challenger Gray &Christmas. At this rate, July's totals could well be one of the largest since the last recession.

True, some layoffs will take place in other countries. Others are the result of mergers. And, of course, these announcements don't mean that all these jobs will be eliminated overnight.

Try telling all this to Joe Six-Pack. As far as the average worker is concerned, it's a case of déjà vu all over again. His job will go on the chopping block, sooner or later.

...more...

[54anickel]

53. That Jobs Creation Bill surely will be deemed a huge success!!! n/t

[UpInArms]

51. Int'l Paper profit off 60 pct, sees mixed demand

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-07-26T130311Z_01_N26130907_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-TIMBER-INTERNATIONALPAPER-EARNS-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - International Paper Co., (IP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) the world's largest forest products company, on Tuesday said second-quarter profit fell 60 percent on weaker sales of industrial packaging and printing paper.

The company also warned that demand in the current quarter looked mixed and pricing appeared flat, as high raw materials costs continued to affect profit margins.

Net income slid to $77 million, or 16 cents a share, from $193 million, or 40 cents, a year earlier. Net sales rose to $6.5 billion from $6.2 billion.

Earnings from continuing operations, excluding special items, totaled 31 cents per share, topping analysts' expectations of 27 cents on revenue of $6.58 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.

One week ago, IP said it would review businesses that together accounted for 30 percent of sales and 40 percent of operating profit for potential spin-off or sale, seeking to exit sluggish markets and focus on the most potentially profitable businesses.

...more...

[UpInArms]

54. 10:42 EST numbers and blather (What?? Me?? Worry???)

Dow 10,598.87 +2.39 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,172.09 +5.35 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,232.34 +3.31 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.239 -0.08 (-0.19%)

NYSE Volume 486,506,000
Nasdaq Volume 457,444,000

10:30AM: Market continues to hold onto modest gains as investors digest today's only piece of scheduled economic data... Consumer confidence unexpectedly dipped in July, checking in at 103.2 versus forecasts of 106.2 and a revised 106.2 in June - a three-year high... Even though July's figure came in shy of estimates, it was still a fairly good reading compared to recent levels and hasn't caused much concern to the market, as consumer spending has been strong and is likely to remain robust...NYSE Adv/Dec 1579/1276, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1584/1059

10:00AM: Equities still on the offensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains positive... Despite Verizon's (VZ 34.20 +0.18) Q2 earnings missing expectations by a penny, 18% profit growth driven by strong gains in its wireless business have helped Telecom Services pace the way higher... Technology, however, continues to provide the bulk of the leadership, as gains in semiconductor (i.e. TXN's report) offset weakness in hardware, which has lost ground following downside Q3 guidance from Lexmark (LXK 60.22 -8.53)...

[UpInArms]

58. 11:19 EST numbers, blather and bye!

Dow 10,587.89 -8.59 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,170.17 +3.43 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 1,230.81 +1.78 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.240 -0.07 (-0.16%)

NYSE Volume 653,845,000
Nasdaq Volume 603,891,000

11:00AM: Major indices now trade in split fashion as oil prices turn positive for the first time today... Crude oil futures, which had eased somewhat ahead of tomorrow's inventories data, have recently found renewed buying interest and now trade at $59.40/bbl (+$0.40)... While the commodity's rebound has been modest at best it has been enough of a catalyst to take some of the steam out of this morning's recovery efforts... NYSE Adv/Dec 1703/1257, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1575/1146

[54anickel]

59. Have a great day UIA!!!...eom

[54anickel]

55. China’s Revaluation: “Stability” and “Flexibility” are fundamentally incom

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

snip>

But it can also depreciate. Read the small print. In announcing the revaluation, the Bank of China also said that each evening, it would set a new trading range for the Yuan to move within on the next trading day. To add to the uncertainty, each day's new range may not necessarily be expressed in terms of dollars, the bank warned. It did not provide examples, although one would imagine that the euro, yen and the British pound would be possible alternatives. Here’s the conundrum: under the new system, if the euro, yen, or the British pound were to continue to sell off against the dollar it could conceivably cause the value of the basket to fall relative to the dollar, and thus would have the effect of lowering the external value of the Yuan. Imagine how Washington would react to that.

So we have a cosmetic revaluation policy in which a hitherto transparent peg has been replaced with something far murkier. This policy shift therefore gives enormous discretion to China's leaders to push the Yuan up or down as they choose. And it is akin to waving a red flag at the speculative community.

Judging from the instantaneous reactions from all of the markets in the aftermath of Beijing’s announcement, it is not too far to say that we are in the midst of a major transition in which China is becoming the fulcrum on which future global growth will pivot. This sort of announcement was front page news in all of the major western papers and signals China’s newfound pre-eminence as a global economic power.

snip>

It may be the case in fact that China’s monetary authorities are fully aware of the country’s underlying fragility and that the notion of re-pegging the renminbi against a basket of currencies will in the future provide scope, not for gradual revaluation, but devaluation. Even though the recent Q2 economic data was on balance fairly strong, it is worth noting that corporate profitability was significantly weaker than it was a year ago (ytd profit growth in May was 15.8 per cent compared with 38.1 per cent in 2004) and margins have deteriorated because Chinese firms who have absorbed huge increase in domestic cost inputs are unable to pass these increases on to consumers. With banks appearing more conservative in lending, it seems that the financial resources available for investment are not growing as fast as they were last year. And with an overhang of excess capacity resulting from last year’s investment binge, there’s less need to invest.

The virtue of a direct currency peg was its underlying transparency, something which is clearly lost in the event that a link is established against a basket of currencies, the composition of which is as yet indeterminate and easily manipulated. It makes little sense to move to such a basket if the real objective is the expedient of gradual revaluation of the renminbi in a highly transparent way that would curry more favour with Washington.

more...

[54anickel]

57. China: From Revolution to Revaluation

http://www.kitco.com/ind/wallenwein/jul252005.html

Communist China is the big darling of the world now, with a majority of people feeling more favorable toward China than they do toward the United States. It is also the big darling of big time industrialists, bankers, and world leaders.

They all court China as if it will be the next world leader - and for a good reason.

What could be nearer to a scheming social controller's heart than a successful amalgam of the two most promising human control mechanisms ever devised by mankind: Communism - and Capitalism?

snip>

The conventional wisdom out there, to which I once also subscribed, is that the yuan is undervalued relative to the dollar and other currencies. That may be so in the short run - simply because that's what people think. It also may have been that way in the past - before the PRC had to print all that currency to buy up dollars earned for its exports and turn them into US bonds.

But as soon as it becomes clear that China has issued way too many nonperforming loans, and has printed way too many yuan to buy those dollars in the past few years, and accordingly has way too much money floating around its economy as a result, that picture may well change in the years to come - and dramatically so.

more...

[54anickel]

60. China Revalues (Hussman)

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc050725.htm

snip>

One feature of this “baby step” is far more important than investors seem to believe. In announcing that it will peg against a basket of currencies rather than only the U.S. dollar, China has just done what France did in the early 1970's, which was to abandon the “de facto dollar standard” of the time. Back then, the Bretton Woods system of managed exchange rates used the U.S. dollar as the center currency, and other countries held their foreign currency reserves in dollars. When, starting in the mid-1960's, the U.S. began accumulating huge budget deficits as a combined result of entitlement growth and military spending, U.S. dollars were effectively forced into the hands of our trading partners, who were by the logic of the system obliged to accumulate them in order to keep exchange rates fixed. This ability of the U.S. to flood the global monetary system with dollars was seen by other countries as an “inordinate privilege,” and the subsequent abandonment of the Bretton Woods system ushered in the dollar crisis and inflation of the 1970's.

While many of us were taught in introductory economics that the 1970's inflation was due to “oil price shocks” and money growth, it's very hard to actually find this in the data. With all apologies to Milton Friedman, inflation is not a monetary phenomenon but a fiscal one – it occurs always and everywhere when fiscal authorities create government liabilities in excess of economic growth. One might argue that this is a semantic distinction, since it's naturally assumed that all governments are Banana Republics at heart, and ultimately finance their excess spending by printing money. But it underscores that it's fiscal policy, not its puppet – monetary policy – that determines inflation.

Indeed, inefficient government spending is inflationary regardless of whether it is financed by printing money, issuing bonds, or even raising taxes. Government bonds and currency compete at the margin, which means that the value of money is not independent of the quantity of bonds outstanding. Indeed, interest rates move in order to ensure that the entire quantity of each of these liabilities is held in equilibrium. Also, to the extent that taxes reduce the private savings that might otherwise be available for investment, taxes weaken the demand for government liabilities, which reduces their value. As a result, it turns out that government spending growth itself (over and above real productivity growth) has a higher correlation with inflation than money growth does.

What does this have to do with China ? Well, it's exactly the modern-day dollar standard with China that has allowed the U.S. to continue a maladjusted fiscal policy without consequence. Just as important, our huge reliance on foreign capital inflows has been the sole factor that has allowed U.S. gross domestic investment to grow in recent years. U.S. domestic savings have not increased materially since about 1996. I certainly don't believe that China's tiny move is about to change all of this overnight, so there's no particular reason why China's move should necessarily create enormous near-term movements in the U.S. dollar, bonds, or gross domestic investment. It's just that we've officially started the end game.

There's no such thing as a "baby step" when you're standing at the edge of a cliff

more...

[UpInArms]

61. Chicago:Hard-hit professionals working `survival jobs' years after layoffs

Found in an African newspaper! Where in the hell is the USoA media????

:Argh:

http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story.asp?StoryId=CqUw1qeicv1jlluPpqKXfu1nctfvfuY1csvO

CHICAGO _ William Spolec sips iced tea at a window table in a busy downtown Starbucks.

Dressed in slacks and a knit shirt, a brown leather attache case at his feet, he easily could be mistaken for a casually dressed professional taking a late afternoon break.

Instead, the veteran human-resources executive is early for a seven-hour shift behind Starbucks' counter.

Laid off two years ago at age 62 from a bank vice president's job, he took the $7.50 per hour job because his health insurance was running out. He felt lucky to find it.

<snip>

While previous recessions hit less educated blue-collar workers harder, this downturn took a greater toll on white-collar workers, who made up 44 percent of the long-term unemployed between 2001-2004, according to a study by the Economic Policy Institute and National Employment Law Project.

In June 2005, long-term unemployment dropped below 20 percent of total unemployed for the first time in nearly three years.

...more heartbreak at link...

I really do have to run now! Have a Great Day All! :hi:

[54anickel]

62. Ouch, I can relate to the depression felt by these folks. I still have

days that I don't bother getting out of bed. And (as you can tell) I often end up spending way to much time here. It's easier than doing chores or looking for a real job again. At least here I feel like I'm contributing to something and get some sense of self-worth.

I've gotten that over/under-qualified line soooo many times, and each time you lose out on a job it just lowers your self-esteem all the more. That "what's wrong with me" question has run thru my head daily for 2 years now. :-(

[loudsue]

64. Boy can I relate to that!

:hug: Hang in there 54anickle.... and network your fingers to the bone when you feel optimistic! Talking to as many people you know in your industry as possible really helps sometimes. (Excuse the lousy sentence structure there ;) )

I am a contractor, and I've seen many, many months without work since 9/11. Right now I have some work, but it can always go away, at any time. I've also had a few contracts where the "big boys" JUST DON'T PAY! We do the work, but they won't pay our invoices, and they don't care what you try to do about it. <grr> This is the most worker-hostile, corporate-friendly labor environment I've ever imagined. Never thought I'd see it in America, but here it is.

I wish you lots of luck, and a really good break!

:kick::kick::kick:

[54anickel]

69. Thanks Loudsue,

I'll try to hang in there, but I'm getting old and tired. More down days than up lately. Hope to snap back out of it again soon...I always do.

I'm looking to change fields completely these days, just not sure what I wanna be when I grow up yet. Decided I really can't afford to go back to school to completely re-tool, so my options are a bit limited at this point.

I had started to work on completing my BA in Business but the BS they were teaching didn't seem to be worth the $$$ it was costing me. That accelerated BA in Business program also seemed pretty damned crowded, with a lot of graduates slated to hit the streets at the same time with the same damned piece of paper.

I'm pretty well done and fed-up with Corporate America, so few decent employers left out there these days.

[barb162]

71. "most worker-hostile, corporate-friendly labor environment"

yes, in SPADES

[llmart]

73. This article could have been written during Bush Sr.'s............

administration. I'm having deja vu. White collar workers lost their jobs in record numbers then, too. Of course, then we were lucky enough to have President Clinton pull us out of that fiasco.

[ramapo]

76. Because nice people don't talk about these things

Amazing how Americans live in a bubble

[RawMaterials]

80. It was in the tribune on the 17th

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0507170314jul17,1,128472.story?coll=chi-news-hed

:hi:

just wanted to point out that some newspapers still print the news, it just doesn't show up any were else.

[54anickel]

67. Lawmakers Reach a Deal on New Energy Policies

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/26/politics/26cnd-energy.html?

snip>

Working furiously to try to strike an energy deal, the negotiators killed two major provisions aimed at curbing consumption of traditional fossil fuels like oil, natural gas and coal. They also agreed to slow the potential takeover of Unocal by a Chinese oil company to allow for a study of the national security and economic implications of the acquisition.

snip>

The House and Senate reached similar agreement on energy legislation in 2003, but the measure stalled in the Senate over objections to a plan to provide producers and distributors of the gasoline additive MTBE some legal immunity from lawsuits. In a decision that helped the bill's prospects this year, lawmakers on Sunday abandoned that plan. Hoping to dodge another obstacle, senators on Monday rejected a House proposal to relax some clean air standards.

snip>

The final version of the energy plan is certain to come under attack by some lawmakers and conservation groups who consider it too heavily skewed in favor of traditional oil and gas companies, which it showers with billions of dollars of aid and tax breaks at a time when high oil prices are producing huge profits.


As the nine-hour negotiating session was nearing an end, Representative Edward J. Markey, Democrat of Massachusetts, failed in an effort to eliminate some of the relief from drilling royalties that the industry would receive through the bill, arguing that it was wrong to let oil companies escape fees for drilling on public land. "We might as well be giving tax breaks to Donald Trump and Warren Buffett here tonight,'' said Mr. Markey. The Republican-led House majority on the conference committee quickly rejected his proposal.


In a disappointment for environmental advocates, House members on Monday rejected an effort to incorporate a plan passed by the Senate to require utilities to use more renewable energy like wind and solar power to generate electricity. They also defeated a bid to direct the president to find ways to cut the nation's appetite for oil by one million barrels a day within 10 years.

more...

[54anickel]

68. Meanwhile....Crude prices climb, trade above $59

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1122394219-e04f0f08-41983

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Crude and heating-oil futures climbed in New York with traders eagerly awaiting Wednesday's petroleum supply report from the Energy Department. "Since most are anticipating another build in heating-oil inventories in tomorrow's EIA report, it may just be technical factors moving the market since August heating-oil and gasoline options expire today," said James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics. "With only a little over a month left in the summer driving season, the focus in the product market has shifted from gasoline to heating oil to meet winter demand," he said.

[54anickel]

70. 12:55 numbers and blather

Dow 10,589.40 -7.08 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,170.39 +3.65 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,230.81 +1.78 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.246% -0.00
NYSE Volume 1,003,465,000
Nasdaq Volume 874,812,000

12:30PM : Blue chip indices slip to session lows, as oil prices approach $60/bbl... With earnings reports still the focus for a couple more weeks, the reality that high oil prices ($59.80/bbl +$0.80) lead to lower overall corporate profit growth appears to have stalled what little momentum the market had been trying to find following yesterday's consolidation efforts...
Even though analysts are expecting the tenth consecutive weekly build in distillates (a negative for oil) tomorrow morning (10:30 ET), perhaps technical factors, as heating oil and gasoline options expire today, have sparked some of the upside momentum in the commodity... NYSE Adv/Dec 1591/1545, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1469/1400

12:00PM : Market remains mixed midday as investors weigh a strong report from Texas Instruments against a disappointment from DuPont... Last night, Texas Instruments (TXN 31.96 +1.36) beat analysts' Q2 forecasts by $0.03, issued upbeat Q3 guidance, raised its dividend and announced a share buyback... While the tech giant isn't as strong a gauge for the overall economy as Microsoft and Intel, TXN's report has provided a floor of buying support that has improved sentiment in the wake of yesterday's weakness, as 8 out of 10 economic sectors trade higher...

Even though Q2 earnings of $0.63 a share from Verizon (VZ 34.20 +0.18) checked in a penny shy of forecasts, 18% profit growth driven by strength in its wireless business has helped Telecom Services become the day's best performing sector... Providing more leadership has been Health Care, benefiting from a rebound in biotech and strong Q2 reports from Waters (WAT 44.04 +3.34) and Medco Health Solutions (MHS 48.66 +0.44)... Consumer Staples has been strong, as WM Wrigley (WWY 71.66 +2.28) has surged 3.3% following strong Q2 earnings while Safeway (SWY 24.03 +0.49) has climbed after it raised same store sales guidance...

Technology has shown relative strength, as modest gains in semiconductor (i.e. TXN's report) offset weakness in hardware, which has lost 1.5% following downside Q3 guidance from Lexmark (LXK 60.23 -8.32)... The Industrials sector has also traded higher, getting a boost following better than expected from LMT, BNI, AVY and PBI... Materials, however, continues to deteriorate following quarterly disappointments...

DuPont's (DD 41.50 -2.54) Q2 profits more than doubled but earnings of $0.90 per share fell shy of forecasts, International Paper (IP 31.50 -0.10) beat estimates by $0.04, but revenues were light, and U.S. Steel (X 41.42 -0.21) missed forecasts by $0.29... Even though oil prices ($59.40/bbl +$0.40) have rebounded from early lows, profit-taking continues to weigh on the Energy sector... Separately, consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in July to 103.2 (consensus 106.2) but June's figure was revised to 106.2 (from 105.8) - a three-year high...DJTA +0.5, DJUA +0.3, DOT +0.6, Nasdaq 100 +0.3, Russell 2000 +0.2, SOX +0.4, S&P Midcap 400 +0.2, XOI -0.8, NYSE Adv/Dec 1634/1434, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1575/1282

11:30AM : Little changed since the last update as the Dow and Nasdaq continue to trade in opposing directions... Two of the most actively traded issues providing support on the latter continue to be Tellabs (TLAB 9.42 +0.53) and Netflix (NFLX 19.45 +2.49), which have soared 6.0% and 15%, respectively, following better than expected earnings reports... Even thgough 18 of the Dow's 30 components have traded higher, a 6.0% drubbing in DuPont (DD 41.30 -2.74) shares continues to weigh on the blue chip index... NYSE Adv/Dec 1689/1316, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1573/1224

[54anickel]

74. The Patriot Act Four Years Later

http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2005/tst072505.htm

Congress passed legislation last week that reauthorizes the Patriot Act for another 10 years, although the bill faced far more opposition than the original Act four years ago. I’m heartened that more members of Congress are listening to their constituents, who remain deeply skeptical about the Patriot Act and expansions of federal police power in general. They rightfully wonder why Congress is so focused on American citizens, while bin Laden and other terrorist leaders still have not been captured.

The tired arguments we’re hearing today are that same ones we heard in 2001 when the Patriot Act was passed in the emotional aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks. If the Patriot Act is constitutional and badly needed, as its proponents swear, why were sunset provisions included at all? If it’s unconstitutional and pernicious, why not abolish it immediately? All of this nonsense about sunsets and reauthorizations merely distracts us from the real issue, which is personal liberty. America was not founded on a promise of security, it was founded on a promise of personal liberty to pursue happiness.

One prominent Democratic opined on national television that “most of the 170 page Patriot Act is fine,” but that it needs some fine tuning. He then stated that he opposed the ten-year reauthorization bill on the grounds that Americans should not have their constitutional rights put on hold for a decade. His party’s proposal, however, was to reauthorize the Patriot Act for only four years, as though a shorter moratorium on constitutional rights would be acceptable! So much for the opposition party and its claim to stand for civil liberties.

Unfortunately, some of my congressional colleagues referenced the recent London bombings during the debate, insinuating that opponents of the Patriot Act somehow would be responsible for a similar act here at home. I won’t even dignify that slur with the response it deserves. Let’s remember that London is the most heavily monitored city in the world, with surveillance cameras recording virtually all public activity in the city center. British police officials are not hampered by our 4th amendment nor our numerous due process requirements. In other words, they can act without any constitutional restrictions, just as supporters of the Patriot Act want our own police to act. Despite this they were not able to prevent the bombings, proving that even a wholesale surveillance society cannot be made completely safe against determined terrorists. Congress misses the irony entirely. The London bombings don’t prove the need for the Patriot Act, they prove the folly of it.

more...

[54anickel]

75. 10.25 billion over-night repo issued, and another new record

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html


The Outstanding Public Debt as of 26 Jul 2005 at 05:31:55 PM GMT is:

[54anickel]

79. Closin' time (what a difference a half-hour can make)

Dow 10,579.77 -16.71 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,175.99 +9.25 (+0.43%)
S&P 500 1,231.16 +2.13 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.239% -0.01
NYSE Volume 1,883,731,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,651,779,000

3:30PM : Stocks continue to hold their own heading into the close but remain mired in relatively tight trading ranges... While GM continues to pace the gains on the Dow, a 1.4% surge in shares of Boeing (BA 66.99 +0.94), which reports Q2 earnings before the bell tomorrow, has also provided some support for blue chips...
While perhaps getting a boost following the successful launch of the Space Shuttle Discovery this morning, Boeing has also benefited from a 2.6% surge in rival Lockheed Martin (LMT 64.15 +1.64), which handily beat Q2 expectations and issued upside FY05 guidance to reflect improved operating performance in its Space Systems segment...NYSE Adv/Dec 1877/1385, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1796/1244

3:00PM : More of the same for the major indices as market internals still indicate a positive tone to trading... As reflected in the A/D line, advancers hold an 18 to 13 edge over decliners while advancing issues outpace declining issues on the Nasdaq by a 17 to 12 margin... A nearly 2-to-1 up to down ratio, however, suggests an even more bullish bias on the Big Board and Composite... While the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq continue to find support near key technical levels, modest buying efforts have so far not been enough to push the averages through resistance levels of 10645, 1234 and 2186, respectively...

NYSE Adv/Dec 1875/1347, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1774/1221

2:30PM : Holding steady at modestly higher levels as buyers remain widespread across most areas... Aside from stocks and bonds catching a bid, the dollar has climbed against the yen (112.37) and euro (1.2026) after China's central bank said it will not allow the yuan to strengthen in the "foreseeable future" following last week's revaluation... Expectations that this week's scheduled economic data (i.e. durable orders, GDP) should come in strong may also be providing a floor of support behind today's gains in the greenback... NYSE Adv/Dec 1900/1301, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1810/1173

2:00PM : Major averages catch another wave of renewed buying interest, spearheaded by strength in the influential Technology sector... While Texas Instruments' (TXN 32.13 +1.53) strong Q2 report has helped underpin an improved tone to trading, solid gains from Amazon (AMZN 38.33 +0.38), Sun Microsystems (SUNW 3.89 +0.04), Sanmina-SCI Corp. (SANM 5.33 +0.13) and Flextronics (FLEX 13.82 +0.15) - all of which report results after the close - have helped the Nasdaq hit its best levels of the session...SOX +1.0, NYSE Adv/Dec 1765/1432, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1737/1219

1:30PM : Stocks continue to trade at improved levels although the latest recovery effort seems to have stalled... Also losing steam have been bonds... At the top of the hour, a $6.0 bln auction of reopened 20-year TIPS, which awarded investors 2.090% and saw strong indirect bidder participation of 64.1%, provided an initial lift to the Treasury market... But the bounce has been short-lived as the benchmark 10-year note has pulled back and is now unchanged to yield 4.24%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1655/1504, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1593/1333

[54anickel]

81. Democrats block China bill easing way for CAFTA

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=politicsNews&storyID=2005-07-26T191858Z_01_N26176498_RTRIDST_0_POLITICS-TRADE-CONGRESS-USA-DC.XML

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives blocked a Republican bill on Tuesday aimed at boosting support for a free trade agreement with Central America by addressing trade concerns with China.

Republicans hoped a victory on the bill would build momentum for a vote this week on the U.S.-Central American Free Trade Agreement, or CAFTA, by persuading trade-wary Republicans from industrial states like Pennsylvania and Michigan to support the trade pact. But Democrats attacked the bill as a merely cosmetic attempt to tackle serious trade problems with China.

Most House Democrats oppose CAFTA, which would tear down trade barriers between the United States, Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic. House Speaker Dennis Hastert told reporters on Tuesday that Republicans were still working to round up the 218 votes they need to win approval of the trade pact.

House leaders attempted to pass the Trade Rights Enforcement Act on the "suspension" calendar usually reserved for noncontroversial measures. Suspension bills require the support of two-thirds of those voting to win approval, but the measure failed, 240-186, with most Democrats voting against it.

more...