(CSM) Dynasty looks to rule strategic US ally (oil pipeline)

[salin]

Dynasty looks to rule strategic US ally

In Azerbaijan, president's son could succeed his father in vote Wednesday. At stake, a US-backed regional oil pipeline.

By Fred Weir | Special to The Christian Science Monitor

BAKU, AZERBAIJAN – There are few apparent signs of crisis in bustling, sun-drenched Baku. The streets of the old town overlooking the Caspian Sea are jammed with foreign cars. A forest of construction cranes, testimony to an oil-fueled real estate boom, hover over the city.

But ubiquitous billboards and posters heroically depicting the republic's long-time leader, Geidar Aliyev, and his son Ilham betray a tense political battle under way here. They are part of an elaborate campaign, orchestrated by the elder Mr. Aliyev from his bed in a US clinic, to create the first post-Soviet dynasty through elections slated for Wednesday.

Independent surveys suggest that the presidency cannot be won fairly by Ilham, a political neophyte appointed prime minister by his father in August. Azeri officials exude confidence that Ilham, whose main program is to continue his father's policies, will win by a wide margin.

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The traditionally Shiite Muslim Caucasus state, wedged between Russia and Iran, is of key strategic interest to the West. The US is backing construction of a pipeline through Georgia and Turkey to carry the hoped-for Caspian oil bonanza to world markets, bypassing existing Russian pipeline routes. Azerbaijan has been a loyal US ally, sending 100 troops to Iraq.

But many doubt the father's popularity will rub off on the son, whose reputation as a playboy and gambler is openly discussed. A poll in late September by the Baku-based Center for Political and Economic Research, an independent agency funded by the US National Endowment for Democracy, found the leader of the opposition Musavat Party, Isa Gambar, leading with 36.3 per cent of respondents, while Ilham Aliyev trailed with 27.4 percent.

More: http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/1015/p07s02-wosc.html