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May 22, 2003: David Kelly (Brits chief WMD expert) begins whistleblowing to the BBC on the Brits "sexed up" (exaggerated) Iraq WMD allegations.
July 7, 2003: After Kelly is identified and interrogated, Blair is told that Kelly "could say some uncomfortable things" ("COULD say"--not HAD said).
July 14, 2003: CIA WMD expert Valerie Plame outed (by Novak).
July 18, 2003: Kelly found dead under extremely suspicious circumstances; his office and computers searched.
July 22, 2003: The second Plame outing, of the entire CIA front company, all WMD projects and agents put at risk.
My hypothesis about this remarkable coincidence of dates is that Kelly had stumbled upon, or foiled, a scheme to plant WMDs in Iraq in summer '03 (and to gain the huge political benefit therefrom); that the Bushites assault on the CIA, long in the planning, became a very urgent matter on July 7, when they found out what Kelly knew; that they were in a panic about it--that's why they called at least six reporters (increasing the risk of treason charges) to get Plame outed; that Plame was outed in that way (precipitously), not because of her husbands whistleblowing op-ed in the NYT (July 6) but because of what they were told Kelly knew (July 7) and her ability to detect the WMD-planting plot; that Kelly was killed for knowing about it; and that, when Kelly's office and computers were searched, July 18-19, they found some connection between Brewster Jennings (the CIA front company on WMDs for which Plame and others worked) and the foiling of their WMD-planting scheme; and thus--at even greater risk of treason charges--they then outed the whole CIA front company (Novak, July 22), destroying all its WMD monitoring projects and quite possibly getting some of its covert contacts killed.
The frequent contact between Bush and Blair would likely mean that the Bushites got early warning of what Kelly "could say". Most of them were on board AF-1 on the African trip when this occurred (where the memo about Plame was being circulated), July 5-12. Joe Wilson published his article on July 6, and there is evidence (a Wilson interview) that Condi Rice baited him to do that (publish). He may have been set up from the beginning (a wild goose chase to Niger?), or was used opportunistically to get at Plame and the CIA (long planned). The Rovian revenge tale (revenge against Wilson) may be merely a cover story, the real goal being to blind the CIA to Bush Cartel WMD activity around the world (Cheney arms deals? Plans to plant WMDs in Iraq, Syria, Iran?). Into this mix came the shock (July 7) that the BBC whistleblower was the Brits chief weapons expert, David Kelly, who could blow the lid of their WMD-planting scheme.
Kelly supported the war. He wanted Saddam toppled. SOMETHING turned him around about the war, especially about the false intel, AFTER the invasion. Why would he whistleblow on something he supported? Kelly had been uncomfortable with the "sexed up," politicized intel, but hadn't whistleblown before the invasion. Why do it in May '03?
Clearly he knew something more than he disclosed to the BBC (the "uncomfortable things" that Blair was warned he COULD say). The most logical candidate--as it answered Bush/Blair's most critical political need--was a "find" of WMDs, to justify the invasion. None were ever found. The UN had established that none were there. Yet they had Judith Miller avidly running around Iraq "hunting" for WMDs with US troops, on a special "embed" contract signed by Donald Rumsfeld--poised to get the "scoop" on the WMD "find." Why would they put on this public drama, and so obviously build up expectations the way they did, if they didn't have a phony plant of WMDs in the works?
Such a thing would have outraged Kelly--a brilliant scientist, by all accounts, who loved his non-proliferation work and believed he was doing good. His knowledge of it also would have been motive to kill him. And I do think he was killed (99% sure). Arguments about the wording of intel docs could be endlessly fudged. But a revelation of a concrete action to deceive (planting WMDs), coming from the Brits' top scientist (who was already "off the reservation") could not be handled by the P.R. department. It would have brought both governments down (and would likely have resulted in a UN protectorate and the end of the worst war profiteering).
After they interrogated him, and outed his name to the press, they sent him home apparently without surveillance or protection. He was soon found dead, outdoors near his home, supposedly having taken painkillers, and slit one wrist, and then bled to death all night out in the cold and rain--a most improbable method of suicide for a tough guy scientist (and that is not the least of improbabilities). (There were many dissenting experts on the conclusion of suicide; as well as eyewitness dissenters and highly suspicious details--not enough blood at the scene, body moved--all ignored by the official "Lord Hutton" inquiry, which exonerated the Blairites and blamed Kelly's "suicide" on the BBC! Really--the report is rubbish--except for the detail of Blair learning on July 7 that the concern was not for what he had said, but would he could say.)
One of Kelly's last emails was to Judith Miller--in which he expressed concern about the "many dark actors playing games." (There is more to tell about Miller, which I won't do here.) In various emails just before he died, he was looking forward to his daughter's wedding and returning to Iraq, and thought the controversy surrounding him (big in England) would blow over in a week. (Possibly he had assured his bosses he would say nothing more, and thought that was an end to it.) Upbeat, forward-looking; no note.
But even if it was suicide, it might still be related to the Plame outing. The coincidence of dates is very provocative--most especially regarding the search of Kelly's computers and the SECOND Plame outing (of the entire CIA company). (Why would they have done the second outing, at much greater risk, just to "punish" Wilson? There is no cover story for that.)
This is all based on guesses and surmises--and I'm posting it in the hope that a real investigator will get on it. I have no insider knowledge, only what I read on the internet. And Joe Wilson has said some things--and has a general view of this event--that flatly contradicts this theory. (For instance, he has said that the goal was to get him, not his wife; and that his wife and Judith Miller are "collateral damage.")
I wouldn't want to downplay Wilson's role in exposing these liars--he has been incredibly courageous. Nor do I want to downplay the Bush Cartel's sheer political ugliness and meanness. But I think something more than political revenge was at work.
Whatever the truth of Kelly's death, I hope we some day find out, and, if I am correct that his action spared us triumphal speeches by Bush and Blair on their phony "find" of WMDs in Iraq, that we can properly honor him for it, and anyone else who helped stop it.
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