Man hospitalized with bird flu symptoms in Kazakhstan

[pandemic_1918]

Man hospitalized with bird flu symptoms in Kazakhstan

http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/28.html?id_issue=11356463

ASTANA. July 31 (Interfax) - A 20-year-old man showing bird flu symptoms has been hospitalized in Kazakhstan's Pavlodar region, where 600 domestic geese died between July 20 and July 30 as a result of an outbreak of the disease in the area.

The patient, a poultry farm worker from the village of Golubovka, was later diagnosed with double pneumonia and taken to the intensive care unit of Pavlodar's regional infectious diseases hospital in a critical condition, sources in the region's emergency medicine center told Interfax.

"All birds that might have contracted the disease from the infected geese have already been slaughtered and the poultry farm has been disinfected. Virus samples have been sent to Kazakhstan's National Veterinary Center in Astana to establish a final diagnosis," Emergency Situations Ministry sources told Interfax.

The first deaths of birds in Golubovka were registered a week ago, Yersain Aitzhanov, chief of the Irtysh district's emergency situations department, told Interfax......

[etherealtruth]

1. Uh,oh, this is bad ....

...How far West has a bird flu diagnosis been made?

[pandemic_1918]

2. 120 Southwest of Siberia

This report is 120 miles southwest of H5N1 in Siberia. However, birds are just starting to take off (migrate in August and September)and will head for Europe (and India, eastern Asia, southeast Asia, Alaska, Australia, etc)

http://news.google.com/news?q=kazakhstan%20h5n1&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=wn

[XemaSab]

5. Birds have already taken off

Shorebirds that spent the early summer in Alaska and even far eastern Siberia have already returned to the mainland US.

[pandemic_1918]

41. H5N1 Migrates West Toward Europe

H5N1 heading west. Will cross Urals into Europe shortly

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=nn&ie=UTF-8&q=bird+flu+europe+migrates

[XemaSab]

46. But.... but....

Joe Blow from the Poultry Research Lab says we have nothing to worry about...

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/health/briefs/infectiousdiseases/hb050707a.htm

[pandemic_1918]

48. It's August

The article was written in July and its not clear how many, if any asymptomatic birds were tested. The data from Russia and Kazakhstan shows that H5N1 is alive and well and capable of moving around via migratory birds (and now confirming that the virus from Qinghai Lake can infect humans.

[kestrel91316]

3. Still doesn't look like any significant transmission from .........

person-to-person. The bird-to-person is bad but won't result in a pandemic in people.

[pandemic_1918]

4. China or Boxun?

The transmission to a person of H5N1 linked to Qinghai Lake in China severely undermines China's claim to have never had a human case of H5N1. Boxun reports indicate China has a raging pandemic.

Someone is lying and the case in Kazakhstan should make it quite clear who the liar is

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07220501/H5N1_Raging_Pandemic_China.html

[mike_c]

7. this is another one of your utterly irresponsible, and indefensible...

...statements.

...China has a raging pandemic."

You can peddle this crap on the fundy apocalyptic press, Henry, but not everyone buys it here.

[XemaSab]

10. Mike, some of us look forward to

dying in the coming global apocalypse.

Please stop interrupting a pleasant fantasy.

[mike_c]

11. lol...

:rofl:

[pandemic_1918]

13. China's Credibility

Some people will buy almost anything, but not too many give China much credence at this stage of the game. They claim to have never had a peron infected with H5N1. Promed reported on a pneumonia cluster in Tacheng, Xinjiang. An isolation ward was set up shortly after the geese died. The isolation ward was supposedly to be for patients and staff who had bacterial pneumonia. Problem is bacterial pneumonia isn't very serious or contagious.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06160502/Pneumonia_Xinjiang_Phase_6.html

Tacheng is 5 miles from the Kazakhstan border. Now Kazakhstan has dead geese and a poultry worked in critical condition with double pneumonia.

The Qinghai isolates have a polymorphisms on PB2 (E627K) that is 100% of human flu isolates, but prior to Qinghai Lake was not in any H5N1 bird isolates. It's in all 16 isolates from Qinghai Lake. Since since 1902 there were zero up to Qinghai lake and 16 since Qinghai Lake. H5N1 with E627K in humans is almost universally fatal.

Boxun reports indicate a raging pandemic. China says they've never had a case.

Someone is lying.

[mike_c]

15. link please-- and not the usual unsupported assertions...

...from your own articles. Please provide a link to the Buxon reports of a "raging pandemic" of avian flu in humans-- and not a link to Recombinomics where you claim that's what Boxun is reporting. I can't find any such report in their English version.

[pandemic_1918]

17. More Lost News?

Nature article was "deleted" and now you can't follow a link or find a boxun report. Sounds like more credibility problems.

Boxun report of over 700 death benefit claims

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06280504/H5N1_China_700.html

Boxun on force quarantine

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07220502/H5N1_Pandemic_China_Military.html

Boxun more rounding up of suspect H5N1 cases by military

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07220501/H5N1_Raging_Pandemic_China.html

[mike_c]

20. more smoke and mirrors....

Please link the Buxon "reports" you keep citing, not your claims on the Recombinomics site. That series of translated web responses or email (not sure which) IS on the Buxon site:

http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/english/2005/07/200507230123.shtml

but it says NOTHING about claiming a raging pandemic. It sounds like China is using the military to assist killing infected poultry, nothing more. Where is that link to the "reports of a raging pandemic," Henry?

[pandemic_1918]

23. H5N1 Strains in China

Pulling people from their homes if they are on a hit list doesn't sound like killing poultry.

Boxun on H5N1 strains in China that infect humans

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07160502/H5N1_Human_China.html

Boxun on more H5N1 strains in China

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07170501/H5N1_More_Variants_China.html

[mike_c]

27. more self referential links...

...that ultimately either link back to other Recombinomics nonsense, or to such things as the mail log cited elsewhere in this thread. You know what DATA is Henry. Why can't you produce any?

[pandemic_1918]

31. More Data Analysis

The entire pandemic story for the past 12 months is laid out chronologically so that almost anyone can follow the story (which is months ahead of the popular press)

http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html

[pandemic_1918]

19. Link for Boxun English Report on Forced H5N1 Quarantines

This report

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07220501/H5N1_Raging_Pandemic_China.html

contains a link to the abbreviated English version by boxun (those words with the blue underline are links). Unlike Nature, you don't need a subscription, so if you can get your mouse cursor over the blue line and click with the right button you should be OK. The English part has letters like the ones on this board. If you can't find the link in the above report, try this one

http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/english/2005/07/200507230123.shtml

(again, ignore the Chinese letters and focus on the English ones)

[mike_c]

22. see #20...

...and either put up the goods or stop making exaggerated claims. That link says NOTHING about a "raging pandemic."

[pandemic_1918]

24. Raging Pandemic in China

Boxun reports are pretty easy to interpret, but some have problems interpreting data (ever find out why you couldn't pull up the Nature page without a subscription)?

[mike_c]

26. you can't do it, can you? Alright, I'll call it-- you're lying....

Prove me wrong. Link that Buxon report you keep citing. I don't think you can do it.

[pandemic_1918]

30. Data Analysis Required

Data analysis required. If that's not what you do, just read the newspapers. They will catch on when the bodies pile up.

[pandemic_1918]

16. Apocalyptic CNN on Bird Flu

Here's CNN (aka apocalyptic press according to mike_c)transcript on last week's bird / swine flu (another bacterial contamination story by China)

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0507/28/ldt.01.html

DOBBS: A mysterious new disease has killed dozens of people in China. At the same time, there are rising concerns about the spread of the deadly bird flu in China and other Asian countries. Experts, health experts are now warning it could be only a matter of time before these new diseases spread to the United States.

Kitty Pilgrim has our report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KITTY PILGRIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): One hundred thirty people in China sick from a mysterious pig-borne disease. The World Health Organization doesn't know quite what it is, and the death toll is now at 31.

BOB DIETZ, WHO SPOKESMAN: I think the first thing that pops into everyone's mind is avian influenza, and then comes SARS, and are we looking at that sort of situation. Very early in the stage to make any rash judgments, but at this point we don't see that kind of threat looming. But we are watching it very closely.

PILGRIM: The disease comes from eating or slaughtering sick pigs, which is commonly done in rural China. The problem with the new diseases suddenly affecting people around the world is that they are an airplane ride away from anywhere, as in the case of SARS, which infected thousands and killed 800 people globally.

They can turn up anywhere. For example, health officials don't know how three people in a family in Indonesia contracted avian flu and died. The CDC currently has 11 quarantine stations in U.S. airports, with seven more planned to be open this year to be able to screen people if necessary.

HENRY NIMAN, FOUNDER, RECOMBINOMICS: It actually is a flight away by a migratory bird or commercial airline. So it literally can arrive in a matter of days. So there's really no room for error -- that, once it starts to spread, it can move around the world quite quickly.

PILGRIM: The worry is so great in this country, Congress has had five hearings on the flu this year. Scientists think the bird flu virus could mutate, as all viruses do. And there is not nearly enough vaccine for the current strain.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PILGRIM: Now, many experts are convinced the next global pandemic could come from avian flu. It is highly deadly. Last year, 109 human cases caused 55 deaths in Asia. And with the new sudden unexplained deaths in Indonesia, the concern is very, very high right now -- Lou.

DOBBS: Kitty, thank you very much. Kitty Pilgrim.

[mike_c]

18. smoke screen-- you know I'm talking about Genesis Communications....

Your usual mouth piece. Got that link from Buxon? Or was that just more smoke? This isn't about avian flu Henry-- I've never doubted that a pandemic is likely-- this is about your using bad science to scaremonger.

[pandemic_1918]

21. Bird Flu Interview - Audio Link

Here's the first hour of Saturday interview by interviewer with microbiology background

http://mp3.rbnlive.com/Geri/0507/20050730_Sat_Geri.ram

here's the second hour

http://mp3.rbnlive.com/Moore/0507/20050730_Sat_Moore.ram

Both interviews were before Kazakhstan case, but case was predicted in answer to question regarding the time line

More audio links on page below. Content of interview is spot on (you can fast forward over commercials)

http://www.recombinomics.com/in_the_news.html

[mike_c]

25. oh that's good-- Geri Guidetti of the Ark Institute....

An apocolyptic survivalist. Her "expertise" is in heirloom seed-saving, for crying out loud. She has not been a working scientist for years. She writes books on surviving bioterrorism and preparing for the coming collapse of the world food supply.

[Timmy5835]

6. Can someone answer this......

What happened to the SARS pandemic?

[mike_c]

8. here's a good source for current info....

http://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/

on edit-- should have said "most recent info" rather than current, probably.

[Timmy5835]

9. In other words.........

Not much has happened with SARS. Makes you wonder about brid flu.

[Changenow]

12. SARS was an unknown

influenza is a known.

[pandemic_1918]

14. SARS and Bird Flu

SARS will be back and killing humans and Bird Flu is killing humans now. Anyone wondering about bird flu at this stage simply isn't paying attention.

HPAI H5N1 has never been reported in Russia prior to a couple of weeks ago. It has never been reported in Kazakhstan until today. The birds start migrating south from Russia and Qinghai in China in a few weeks.

Some people are wondering had bad it will be. Others are simply clueless.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

34. Wish everything could be as simple as you think it is.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

33. We got lucky, pure and simple.

[mike_c]

28. I've got work to do-- this thread, and most others that you've posted...

...on DU, is utter rubbish.

[pandemic_1918]

29. Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is right on schedule and some remain as clueless as ever.

[pinto]

32. One case, a poultry farm worker. Consistent with most other human cases.

I think portraying this as an imminent global threat overstates the reality of the situation.

The spread of the virus is clearly due to poultry husbandry practices that enable convenient transmission among domesticated fowl. Close quarters enhance transmission. Human cases are consistently associated with those domesticated fowl, not another human.

While the WHO has presented a couple of reports about the possibility of a mutation the enables human to human contact, it remains just that. A possibility well known among flu viruses. I don't think they were sounding a global alarm. They were doing good science and presenting their reports.

As always, over reaction, as well as inaction, is not an effective response to emerging health problems.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

35. So, how would you describe YOUR post?....

...I hate asking direct questions of Moderators because some of them have been know to have short tempers.

But anyway, have you bothered to keep track of the number of countries currently dealing with "mystery illnesses", and/or lots of dead domestic and/or migratory birds? Here's a short list: Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, Pakistan, India, Kazakhstan, Tibet, and Russia.

Did you know that the vast number of those affected countries have NOT been testing for H5N1? They have been making the exact same early diagnoses as the medical personnel did prior to the 1918-1919 Pandemic...dengue fever, malaria, typhoid, cholera, dysentery, gastroenteritis, etc.

Did you know that China has be extremely less than forthright about the nature of what appears to be a serious illness taking place in Sichuan Province?

Did you know that the U. S. has had dead and dying migratory birds wash up on both the West and East coasts?

Instead of relying on the WHO, a group of administrative bureaucrats with little or no interest in doing much of anything but reporting on illnesses after they've become entrenched, you should start looking for answers from people at the cutting edge of research and investigation like Dr. Niman.

Instead of implying, or allowing someone else to imply, that an individual is involved in an "overreaction", you should do some of your own homework. You might be surprised at what you might discover.

[Doremus]

36. Link please?

Did you know that the U. S. has had dead and dying migratory birds wash up on both the West and East coasts?

If you have a link discussing this I'd appreciate it.

[mike_c]

37. I can tell you from personal observation that dead sea birds...

...are indeed washing up on the Pacific Northwest Coast in much higher than usual numbers for this time of year. However, the cause has nothing to do with avian flu-- it's due to the collapse of the zooplankton based food chain that was in turn caused by a catastrophic change in offshore air circulation patterns this year. The strong north winds that create the coastal upwelling failed to materialize this year, and sea bird populations are undergoing a severe crash. Here's a link if you want to read more:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/07/12/MNG8SDMMR01.DTL

on edit: there are similar stories in the northern atlantic-- there are some scary things happening to ocean food webs these days.

[pandemic_1918]

44. Dead Geese in Brunswick Georgia

Dead geese in Brunswick, GA

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07150506/Georgia_Geese.html

[pandemic_1918]

43. Dead Shearwaters on East Coast of US

Dead Shearwaters from Florida to Maryland

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06180503/Shearwater_Carolina.html

[mike_c]

38. this is sad....

The WHO is not a perfect organization by any means, but your characterization borders on delusional paranoia:

...the WHO, a group of administrative bureaucrats with little or no interest in doing much of anything but reporting on illnesses after they've become entrenched....

The WHO includes many physicians, public health scientists, epidemiologists, etc in addition to its inevitable group of administrators. Many of them are fine, dedicated, and highly professional scientists. Your broad characterization is not only insulting, but highly inaccurate.

...you should start looking for answers from people at the cutting edge of research and investigation like Dr. Niman.

You recently asked me for my credentials as a means of determining whether I'm qualified to criticize Niman's statements in regard to avian flu epidemiology, and you'll recall that I provided them. Now I'll ask you the same question: what professional and academic experience of your's qualifies you to make statements like the one I've quoted above? There are an awful lot of unsupported assertions thrown around in every one of Niman's threads, interviews with Genesis Communications and the like, and so on.

Niman is a virologist who has done some good flu vaccine work, but his pronouncements on avian flu during much of the last year have bordered on crazed. They have appealed mightily to the apocalyptic fundamentalist and survivalist crowd, but have been ignored by the scientific community, largely because they are not based on sound science. I want to make it clear that MOST reasonable epidemiologists and public health scientists agree that an avian flu pandemic is very likely, but that Niman has gone way over the top with his interpretations of events, including such pronouncements as his current "raging pandemic in China." Your consistent endorsement of those pronouncements is directly opposed to the best judgement of the community who's name you dropped in the quote I referenced above, even if only obliquely-- it is association with that community you used to establish Niman's authority. Since that community has largely disagreed with you, I'll ask you again: what are your credentials?

[Swamp Rat]

39. I've read your posts about this before.

You seem to know what you're talking about, so :thumbsup:

The OP should leave the delusional paranoia to me! :D

[mike_c]

40. nice graphic....

:toast:

[pandemic_1918]

45. Scientists' Concerns

Scientists who are paying attention are very concerned about avian influenza and its spread. Few believe the nonsense from China that there has never been a human H5N1 case there. The spread of H5N1 even has ProMed concerned because of the human case in Kazakhstan. H5N1 has never been reported in Russia or Kazakhstan. It will be in Europe shortly.

NIH is very concerned. It is virtually impossible to look at the situation and not be alarmed.

Few scientists (like those who can't figure out how to access Nature) would be among those not alarmed at the H5N1 situation.

[pandemic_1918]

42. Human to Human

Human to human has been happening since 2004 in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia.

Boxun reports suggest significant transmission of H5N1 from Qinghai Lake, which is now supported by Kazakhstan case.

[mike_c]

47. more lies and distortions....

This is really tiresome. Post the reports if you've got them, but you don't. You spoke of your conclusions requiring "data analyses", so post the data-- the raw data, not more links to your Recombinomics nonsense. I don't think your conclusions require data-- I think they only require a fevered imagination.

There is every likelihood that an avian flu pandemic will occur, and when it does you'll crow that you were right all along, but you're not right. Events might converge with your wildly exaggerated claims one day-- quite likely will-- but that doesn't change the fact that you're shoveling offal.

[pandemic_1918]

49. New England Journal Of Medicine

NEJM published the human to human transmission in Thailand in 2004 and there have been over a dozen clusters just like it in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia. WHO published their Manila report in May and now boxun os talking about entire villages "disappearing" in China.

Boxun or mike_c. Not much of a choice.

[Swamp Rat]

50. Dupe