Scientists say human bird flu pandemic preventable

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sen/swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid=5984865&cKey=1123089638000

LONDON (Reuters) - Three million doses of antiviral drugs, vigilance and reducing social contact could contain an outbreak of human avian flu and prevent a global pandemic that could kill millions, scientists said on Wednesday.

Health officials fear the H5N1 strain of bird flu circulating in Asia could mutate into a lethal strain that could rival or exceed the Spanish flu pandemic that killed between 20-40 million people worldwide.

But two teams of scientists who used computer models to simulate an outbreak of a mutated strain capable of spreading between humans in Thailand believe with careful control strategies and a mobile stockpile of anti-flu drugs it would be possible to stop an influenza pandemic.

"What our work shows...is that control of a human outbreak of a new strain of influenza is potentially possible but only when the epidemic is in its earliest stages," Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, told a news conference.

For the plan to work, Ferguson said the initial cluster of infections would have to be picked up before it reaches 50 cases.

[mike_c]

1. this is REALLY unlikely to succeed, IMO....

Human nature ALWAYS causes contingency plans with so little margin to fail. Personally, I think the best hope is for one of the less virulent strains to become the pandemic recombinant-- that way fewer people will die on the way to acquiring immunity. That is a terrible crapshoot, however, and lower virulence would just make the epicenter harder to spot at that early a stage.

on edit: this is one of the reasons that I really worry about countries like Cambodia or Laos, where public health service is especially unlikely to catch the epicenter soon enough.

[H5N1]

4. So, a less virulent man-to-man H5N1 combines with Ebola

I can think of no worse recombination.
(Can you?)
There is no vaccine for such a monstrosity.
It will descend upon us within a week - maybe three.
Granted, Pandemic is zealous.
WHEN this hits it will hit hard.
What... a year, three years, five years?
We will not be ready.

[smirkymonkey]

2. So are global warming and nuclear holocausts, but do you

think anything will be done to prevent them? I hate to be pessimistic, but I don't think the people with the power to stop these things ($$$$) will have any incentive to do anything about it.

[wli]

3. the BFEE will just privatize vaccinations

They wouldn't want poor people to survive it.