STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 4 August

[ozymandius]

Thursday August 4, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 170 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 227 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 291 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1348
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 3, 2005

Dow... 10,697.59 +13.85 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq... 2,216.81 -1.34 (-0.06%)
S&P 500... 1,245.04 +0.92 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.30% -0.04 (-0.83%)
Gold future... 442.70 +5.00 (+1.13%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Willie CB

AMERICAN PRONOUNCED BULLISHNESS

A recent email exchange took place between me and the venerable Kurt Richebächer. We keep in contact regularly but not too frequently. He has admitted over the past 20 months to being surprised at the accuracy of several currency forecasts made by me, someone he once said “has some skill but no currency training.” My reply after laughter was that sometimes training can engrain incorrect thinking, and besides, advanced statistics is quite adequate for training together with some international economics reading. He dispenses compliments sparingly, be sure to know. My emailed queries to him regard questions on European matters, German exports, elder German economist quotations, and reliance degree upon credit extension from housing, a practice not at all popular nor widespread in Europe. My reading includes his Richebächer Letter each month, full of strong diverse wisdom based upon rational established prudent economic analysis. His view has not been positive toward the US Economy in recent years, as our system has been exposed to blatant inflation for sustenance. He has been somewhat frustrated to explain how the US Economy has not fallen on its face, and struggles to explain the function of the American Perpetual Motion Machinery whose operating manual in no way is taken from any known past economics paradigm.

-cut-

Here is my reply.

-cut-

Mein Herr Kurt,

I cannot speak with total certainty on American viewpoints, but I can try to share as a spokesman. My experience is broad here in the eastern states. My contacts are many. I talk to many people. I listen to a lot of people talking. Some patterns seem more than clear.

The US Economy has many extraordinary yet unimpressive underpinnings, most from the financial sector. Americans have accepted most props as normal and suitable, only because crises have so far been averted. A crisis not upon us represents an endorsement of normalcy in both policy and the pillars, strangely in their view. We have an amazing knack as a culture to dismiss neurosis as normal if crises fail to appear quickly, as though in some queer experiment. In my view, the entire US Economy is an experiment in the power of inflation and the glory of its leveraged machinery. We are also an experiment in prescription drug (ab)use and food (ab)use. Most prominent to the public is the zero percent financing available for so many items, like home furniture, large home electronics, some home appliances, even home repairs, and 2% financing for cars. This practice is supported by companies from both their balance sheet cash and bond issuance, which keeps employment going. A stress is usually given on cash flow to buy time for hoped future profit arrival. The public has come to regard easy financing as normal, in stark contrast to just four or five years ago. Recent national legislation cleared the path for more extended derivatives behind liberal financing of home equity loans and credit card cash transfers this spring. My mailbox is full of them in a sudden change. Before they are 0% account balance transfers. Now they are life-of-loan cash withdrawals for under 5%.

-cut-

If I had to pin one item of ultimate importance as the paramount indicator for US bullishness, it would be housing. If it goes into decline, the bullishness will evaporate within a few months. England is showing some housing decline right now, and could offer the United States a preview. Almost no television coverage whatsoever is given to England or Australia and their housing reversals. We remain unaware during the Anglo-Saxon phenomenon you and I discussed. The greatest enabling factors behind the “pronounced bullishness,” as my writings have detailed, are poor academic and media education, powerful official indoctrination, acceptance of adjusted data by professionals, heavy lack of interest by the public, widespread ignorance of foreign currency and political matters, fortuitous impacts from competing currency effects when the USA owns the reserve currency, and the beneficial link from the secular deflation phenomenon to US bond-housing bubbles. That is a wide but flimsy foundation of factors.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[KoKo]

51. He sure doesn't hold anything back in this article.

Quite a read. :-(

[wli]

2. I need to emigrate and convert to Euros ASAP

It's over, folks.

[Maeve]

3. Initial Claims "falls"

U.S. initial jobless claims fall 1,000 to 312,000 By Robert Schroeder
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time filings for state unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 312,000 last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting claims to rise to about 317,000. The four-week average of new claims fell by 2,250 to 316,750, while continuing jobless claims fell by 18,000 to 2.58 million.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={97B21FC5-9CE8-436D-AA48-4FB962F9E9ED}&siteid=

Okay, folks--the reason I put "falls" in quotes is that last week the figure was 310,000. It "fell" because they revised last week's number.

In truth, we're looking at a fairly stable figure, but the spinmeisters won't tell you that.

Very busy--this weekend is my big festival of the year!
http://www.dublinirishfestival.org/

[UpInArms]

5. Watch out for "falling" claims!

Yeah, right.

8:30am 08/04/05 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 18,000 TO 2.58 MLN

8:30am 08/04/05 U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 2,250 TO 316,750

8:30am 08/04/05 U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS LOWER THAN EXPECTED

8:30am 08/04/05 U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 1,000 TO 312,000

Where is the line item that states the revision to last week? Just forgot to put that out there, did they?

Have a wonderful time at the festival, Maeve!

:hi:

[54anickel]

19. Job cut announcements still surging (50% higher than 2004)

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/080405dnbuschallenger.1758bd22.html

The spring and summer surge in layoff announcements continued into July, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said Wednesday.

snip>

Layoffs since May now total 296,250, something John Challenger, chief executive of the firm, said is highly unusual for warm-weather months.

July job cuts were nearly 50 percent higher than last year, when employers announced plans to shed 69,572 positions.

For the year, a total of 641,245 job cuts have been announced, 18 percent higher than last year. At the current rate, cuts will surpass the 2004 total and come in above the 1 million mark for a fifth straight year.

more...

[UpInArms]

4. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.09 Change +0.10 (+0.11%)

Dollar Tries To Pry Dominance Away From Majors

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2670&Itemid=39

EUR/USD – Euro bulls sharpened their horns and stampeded through the dollar positions with blazing speed, leaving greenback longs in complete disarray as single currency longs took possession of the 1.2300 figure. As the pair consolidates the gain and the breakout it made from the trading range (1.1870-1.2300) the euro remained in for the past few months, the next move by the single currency longs will most likely see the an attack against the 1.2487, a key 38.2 Fib of the 1.3477-1.1869 USD rally, which is further reinforced by the psychologically important 1.2500 handle. Indicators remain supportive of the move to the upside with momentum indicator above the zero line, MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, with Stochastic reaching the overbought territory thus raising a flag of caution to the euro longs that they can become vulnerable to the countermove by the greenback bulls.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen longs remained in suspended animation reflecting the half hearted foray below the 111.00 figure as the price action in other majors seems to be ignored by the yen traders. As long as the yen remains above the 111.00 figure, which is marked by the bullish engulfing pattern the pair established during the July 12-13 reversal, greenback longs still have a fighting chance albeit a slim one. A break below the 111.00 handle will most likely has to contend with strong support around the 110.25 line as it’s marked by the key 38.2 Fib of the 104.18-113.74 rally and a 50-day SMA. Indicators continue to favor a move to the downside with momentum indicator crossing below the zero line , MACD sloping toward the zero line and with both oscillators remaining in a neutral territory, thus giving either side enough room to maneuver.

...more...

It's MaeveDay!

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

15. They need the buck down if this scheme for repatriating dollars is

going to work for the 2nd half of the year. The multinationals have been dragging their feet. I think they are hoping for a more "favorable" exchange rate to get a better "bang for the buck" regarding revenues.

Of course, this will also help the GOP heading into 2006 as tax revenues will be "inflated", giving the illusion that BeezleBush's economic policy is working. 5% tax on multinational revenues that would not have seen the light of "taxing day" without the "Job Destruction Act" is a lot of moo-la.

All that moo-la in the corporate coffers will more than likely be "invested" in even more M&A activity - boosting stocks while killing jobs.

Ya have to give them credit, it is a perfect scheme if they can pull it off. A very well thought out transfer of wealth. Conniving little bastards, ain't they. Sort of like the "Contract on America". We are watching the sequel.

About the only thing I can see spoiling the scheme at this time is a currency crisis. Either way Murika loses in the end. My only hope is impeachment proceedings - and there's that "cornered animal" threat with that one. Sorry to be so "doom & gloomy" today. I'm losing hope and have a miserable headache to boot. Maybe someone else can see a way out of this mess. :-(

[KoKo]

53. If the Housing Bubble begins to deflate, maybe.

Most of us who read here can't imagine how much longer they can keep all this propped. Jim Willie's article is a good read on this. Maybe there will be an "intervention" if his polls keep going down and the job market continues to decline. Been waiting for that "intervention" so long that I've just about given up hope though. :-(

[UpInArms]

29. a peek at the buck (just fell off the hill)

Last trade 87.87 Change -0.12 (-0.14%)

Settle 87.99 Settle Time 23:36

Open 88.04 Previous Close 87.99

High 88.23 Low 87.74

Last tick: 2005-08-04 10:43:21 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

31. I was wondering what was up with gold all morning...eom

[54anickel]

34. Canadian foreign reserves fall in July

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-08-04T130146Z_01_N0490545_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CANADA-RESERVES.XML

OTTAWA, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Canadian foreign reserve holdings
fell by US$1.6 billion in July to US$33.33 billion, the Finance
Department said on Thursday.

RESERVES July June
Total 33.327 34.922
U.S. dollars 16.241 17.303
Euro 13.051 13.182
Other foreign currencies 0.997 1.012
Gold 0.047 0.048
Special drawing rights 0.890 0.893
IMF reserves 2.101 2.484

NOTE - Figures in billions of U.S. dollars.

There were no sales of gold in July, despite the
government's policy of gradually selling off its gold reserves
and replacing them with interest-bearing instruments.

[54anickel]

36. Russian Finance Minister opposes strengthening the ruble

http://en.rian.ru/business/20050804/41090954.html

MOSCOW, August 4 (RIA Novosti) - Russia must not permit the strengthening of the ruble, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Thursday at a cabinet session.

The use of the Stabilization Fund finances as well as the reduction of inflow to the fund from oil export sales could result in an additional strengthening of the national currency to the detriment of national industries, Kudrin said.

The Russian Stabilization Fund was formed on January 1, 2004. The fund receives money from oil export sales when oil prices exceed $20 per barrel.

snip>

Kudrin said the predicted increase of Russian gold and currency reserves for 2005 was $50 billion. However, the reserves would probably increase by $80 billion, the minister said.

"The growth of the gold and currency reserves will happen due to the increase of oil prices and the attempts of the Central Bank of Russia to restrain the strengthening of ruble," he said.

more...

[54anickel]

6. Bank cuts interest rate to 4.5% (UK)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4745025.stm

UK interest rates have been cut to 4.5% by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
The MPC's decision at its 100th meeting had been widely expected. UK rates had been held at 4.75% since August 2004.

Experts had predicted the move in the face of concerns about slowing UK growth and consumer spending, and manufacturing moving into recession.

Business leaders said the Bank had made "the right decision" amid mounting evidence of a UK slowdown.

Easing the pressure

"This cut will be a catalyst for growth and will provide an essential boost to consumer and business confidence," Digby Jones, head of the Confederation of British Industry, said.

more...

[54anickel]

17. Euro and pound take rate decisions in their stride

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH88328_2005-08-04_12-22-45_L04295582

LONDON, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The euro and sterling traded slightly softer versus the dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank held interest rates unchanged while the Bank of England cut borrowing costs for the first time in two years.

Both decisions were widely expected and investors were reluctant to make any big bets before Friday's key U.S. payrolls data.

The dollar has shrugged off upbeat U.S. data recently and investors are keen to see if Friday's data could reinforce dollar-supportive expectations that U.S. interest rates will rise steadily this year.

"It (the ECB rate outcome) was expected to be a non-event and that has happened," Carsten Fritsch, currency strategist at Commerzbank.

"Given current market sentiment we would need very strong U.S. data to change the sentiment again towards a stronger dollar."

more...

[UpInArms]

7. Sara Lee posts quarterly loss, outlook weak

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-08-04T123250Z_01_N04708656_RTRIDST_0_FOOD-SARALEE-EARNS-UPDATE-2.XML

CHICAGO, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Sara Lee Corp. (SLE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) posted a quarterly loss on Thursday due to costs from divestitures, higher pork and beef costs, and weakness in Europe, and forecast sharply lower profit in the current quarter.

The maker of Sara Lee bread, Hanes underwear and dozens of other household products, whose shares were down 3 percent in pre-market trading, also said it plans to cut its debt by at least $1.5 billion over the next two years and spend about $2 billion on share repurchases.

In February, Sara Lee said it would spin off its U.S. apparel business and exit other lines to focus on U.S. meat, baked goods, household products and its Senseo coffee operations.

Analysts, who were to meet with the company on Thursday, are waiting for details on how Sara Lee plans to spend the proceeds from divestitures. In its restructuring, the company plans to shed operations that account for about 40 percent of its sales.

Sara Lee on Thursday said it plans to maintain its annual dividend of 79 cents a share in fiscal 2006, which began July 3, regardless of the timing of any divestitures. It said it plans to maintain "an attractive" dividend yield compared with other food companies, which could result in a payout ratio higher than its target of 40 percent to 50 percent.

...more...

Going to rip the corporation apart, yet maintain a high dividend?

[UpInArms]

8. U.S. stock futures point down; retail sales mixed

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-08-04T130135Z_01_N04590027_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 4 (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures suggested a weaker market open on Thursday as investors held off on taking positions before Friday's non-farm payrolls report and as retailers reported mixed sales results for July.

Several clothing retailers including Federated Department Stores Inc. (FD.N: Quote, Profile, Research), AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (ANN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and May Department Stores Co. (MAY.N: Quote, Profile, Research), posted a decline in same-store sales.

<snip>

"This may be a day where institutional investors will book some profit and step back in light of the payroll report," said Jon Brorson, managing director of growth equities at Neuberger Berman in Chicago. "It looked like Wal-Mart sales were OK, but you've got to keep feeding the beast, and unless it's a blow-out, you've got to sit back a bit."

S&P 500 futures were down 3.6 points, below fair value, a model evaluating pricing by accounting for interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.

Dow Jones industrial average futures were down 35 points, below fair value, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 6.5 points, below fair value.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. Number of U.S. online job ads declines in July

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-08-04T100044Z_01_N03540120_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-JOBS-MONSTER.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Employers posted fewer online ads for job openings in July, a report said on Thursday, although military positions and construction employment showed signs of strength.

In what online job-search giant Monster said were unfavorable seasonal factors, its index of Internet job availability dropped to 134 in July from 136 in June.

The news comes just a day before the government releases its monthly payrolls report, expected to show around 180,000 net jobs were created last month.

Online employment ads were thin across industries, with the trend affecting everything from health care and food services to administrative and office work.

<snip>

"Among the occupational categories that experienced gains in July, online demand for military-related occupations saw the greatest month-to-month increase and the highest rate of growth over the past three months among all occupational categories," Monster said in a statement.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Bond market drifts ahead of Friday's jobs report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEA6C02F0%2D4538%2D4E54%2D8ED0%2D95572E1E4F6F%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - The benchmark Treasury note trimmed its loss Thursday as a small drop in weekly jobless benefits claims merely supported expectations already priced into the bond market for a relatively strong monthly U.S. jobs report due on Friday.

The 10-year note was down 1/32 at 98 20/32, yielding ($TNX: news, chart, profile) a little changed 4.3%.

The note was down around 3/32 ahead of the report that showed a drop of 1,000, to 312,000, of jobless benefit applications.

...more...

There's that "falling" claims statement again :eyes:

[UpInArms]

18. Treasuries flat after jobless claims, payrolls key

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-08-04T134127Z_01_N04332422_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 4 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were mostly steady on Thursday after weekly jobless claims came in largely as expected.

The market was subdued as traders squared positions and looked ahead to Friday's non-farm payrolls report, easily the single most influential economic indicator in U.S. financial markets.

"Jobless claims: The non-event of the day," said Don Kowalchik, a debt strategist with at A.G Edwards & Sons in St. Louis, Missouri. "Everybody is on the sideline waiting for tomorrow."

Weekly first-time jobless claims came in at 312,000 in the week ended July 30, down 1,000 from the prior week's upwardly revised result of 313,000. Wall Street economists had expected claims to move up to 315,000 from the original reading of 310,000 reported for the prior week.

<snip>

Separately, investors in the second leg of a derivatives auction bet on Thursday that July payrolls data would come in at 188,000 jobs, up from 185,000 new jobs in Wednesday's initial auction. Two more payroll-linked auctions are scheduled: One later on Thursday, and a final one on Friday just ahead of the data.

These types of economic derivatives, offered by Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and interdealer broker ICAP, have had a good track record at revealing how market participants are positioned ahead of important economic indicators relative to economists' consensus forecasts.

...more at link...

I get a mental image of sleazy gamblers in an alley throwing dice.

[UpInArms]

11. pre-opening blather

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.0. Bearish bias persists in pre-market trading as futures indications still trade below fair value, setting the stage for stocks to open lower... On a positive note, most of this morning's notable earnings reports (i.e. G, CMX, CLX, AT and RRD) have checked in better than expected, downside Q1 and FY06 guidance from Sara Lee (SLE), mixed July comps and weakness throughout European markets appear to be taking some of the excitement out the market's recent run-up

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. Futures market holds relatively steady following economic data, still indicating a lower open for the cash market... Initial claims fell 1K to 312K, slightly below forecasts; however, the data have had little impact on trading as the market remains primarily focused on tomorrow's more significant jobs report

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a lower open for the major indices as recent market gains and oil prices above $61/bbl prompt another attempt at consolidation... Meanwhile, investors continue to sift through another batch of earnings and July same-store sales figures from more than 60 retailers (many also providing guidance) ahead of economic data... At 8:30 ET, the Labor Dept. will release initial jobless claims (consensus 315K)

[UpInArms]

12. 9:32 EST wheels spinning red

Dow 10,669.09 -28.50 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,206.76 -10.05 (-0.45%)
S&P 500 1,241.69 -3.35 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.302 +0.02 (+0.05%)

NYSE Volume 26,987,000
Nasdaq Volume 50,890,000

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -4.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.0. Futures trade continues to deteriorate into the open as investors find little incentive to hold onto recent gains... While the market has continued to show good resilience, even in the face of record high oil prices, the winding down of earnings season and absence of more influential catalysts over the coming weeks to keep the S&P at a four-year high appears to be weighing on sentiment

[UpInArms]

13. Smurfit-Stone shutters 3 mills, to take $302M charge (565 jobs)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38568.3971836343-839923165&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. (SSCC) said it would close three North American containerboard mills in Florida, Quebec and New Brunswick, "in response to the declining growth rate for containerboard and oversupply in the northeastern portion of North America." Smurfit-Stone said 565 jobs would be eliminated and that it would incur charges of $302 million in the third quarter. Shares rose 6 cents early Thursday to $12.10

I guess the need for containers to export all those goods that the declining dollar has spurred has diminished?

(Just trying to follow the fiscal logic :eyes: )

[UpInArms]

14. Fed adds ($8 BILLION) reserves via overnight system repurchases

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-08-04T133308Z_01_N04343248_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it was adding temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

Earlier, the Fed added $8.0 billion to the banking system through 14-day system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 3.25 percent, the Fed's current target for the rate on overnight loans between banks.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

Wow! This on top of yesterday's $44 BILLION? That makes it $52 BILLION - just what the forecast was and the report yesterday that shoved the bonds back into the positive territory (because the issues were only $44B)

[UpInArms]

16. 10:01 EST deeper into the red

Dow 10,647.83 -49.76 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,203.01 -13.80 (-0.62%)
S&P 500 1,238.74 -6.30 (-0.51%)
10-Yr Bond 4.302 +0.02 (+0.05%)

NYSE Volume 216,076,000
Nasdaq Volume 235,401,000

10:00AM: Market still on the defensive as virtually every sector trades in negative territory... Pacing the way lower has been Consumer Discretionary amid mixed July comps and some disappointing guidance from key retailers (i.e. TGT, GPS, JCP and FDO)... Consolidation throughout brokerage, banking and insurance has weighed on Financial while Technology has also been weak across the board...

Despite better than expected Q2 earnings and upside guidance from Caremark Rx (CMX 46.60 +1.94), pressure to lock in recent biotech gains has kept Health Care underwater, while a Q2 disappointment from Williams Companies (WMB 21.70 -0.03) has ignited some profit-taking in Utilities... Energy, however, has eked out a modest gain amid a modest rebound in oil prices... NYSE Adv/Dec 852 /1733, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 793/1621

9:40AM: Stocks open lower across the board as a morning of mixed data prompt investors to lock in recent market gains... Bullish economic and earnings reports have provided a floor of support for the major averages, keeping the S&P and Nasdaq at their best levels in four years even amid record highs for oil...

However, with earnings season coming to a close, investors may also be waiting to get further validation behind the market's recent run-up from tomorrow's influential employment report, which is expected to show the economy added about 180K jobs last month - consistent with gains over the past year and a half...

(updated blather)

[loudsue]

26. The day is young.....

How the market stays up is waaaay beyond me...it's like magic.

Somehow they keep it bouncing between 10500 and 10700. It's been going on like this since the chimp's army took control. Up. Down. Up. Down. Up. Down.

But 90% of the economic news is bad! :shrug: I don't get it!

:kick:

[mike923]

45. People keep buying stocks...

Most people have some sort of 401K, with weekly deductions. I think sense this is a pretty steady influx of money to the market, the dow isn't likely to see dramatic drops.

[UpInArms]

20. Crude prices climb; natural-gas futures lose ground

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38568.4263640394-839927038&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- September crude is up 34 cents at $61.20 a barrel in early trading after faling $1 in Wednesday's session. The weekly inventory data on Wednesday from the Energy Department was "supportive to gasoline, but the distillate and crude information was limiting," said John Kilduff, an analyst at Fimat USA, in a note to clients. September natural gas is down 2.1 cents at $8.33 per million Britisth thermal units ahead of a government update on supplies for the week ended July 29. Global Insight expects a climb of 58 billion cubic feet. The data will reflect a change in the Energy Department's method of reporting.

Ahhh - lookie there - another "change in reporting" - should make all the difference :eyes:

[54anickel]

22. OPEC output rises to highest since 1979

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-08-04T080203Z_01_L04687662_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-ENERGY-OPEC-OUTPUT-DC.XML

LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC oil production rose 290,000 barrels per day in July to the highest level since December 1979 as Iraq boosted exports and the UAE restored output at oilfields after maintenance, a Reuters survey showed.

Record crude oil prices have encouraged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to push output to near 26-year highs.

But opening the taps has had little effect on prices. U.S. light crude hit a fresh record of $62.50 a barrel on Wednesday.

"OPEC is producing as much crude oil as anybody wants," said Geoff Pyne, energy consultant for Standard Bank. "Refiners have no shortage of the grades they need. But it's out of OPEC's hands to bring the price down."

Prices have rallied to records this year on concern that a stretched global refining system would struggle to meet rapidly growing fuel demand.

more...

[UpInArms]

30. Sept Crude at $61.95 bbl

11:14am 08/04/05 SEPT CRUDE NEAR $62, LAST UP $1.09 AT $61.95

[UpInArms]

43. Oil futures up 2% to trade above $62

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B768F6A5F%2D124E%2D4CB4%2D8314%2D4200B4B52E18%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude climbed back above $62 a barrel Thursday, recouping the previous session's nearly 2% loss as traders juggled continuing supply-and-demand themes with political uncertainty.

Natural-gas futures were up 3%, trading at a nine-month high, after a government report said supplies didn't climb as much as expected last week.

"So far this market resembles kids taking a dare to walk through a cemetery at night," said James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics.

"Every sound is blown out of proportion and the crack from someone stepping on a twig can send the whole group running for the safety of a street lamp," he said.

September-dated crude futures traded as high as $62.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was last at $61.70, up 84 cents. On Wednesday, futures closed at $60.86, down $1 for the session, after reaching their highest ever level of $62.50 during the day.

September unleaded gas led the gains among the products, up 33.31 cents, or 1.9%, at $1.804 a gallon. September heating oil was up 1.61, or 1%, at $1.705 a gallon.

...more...

[54anickel]

49. Oil Prices Up on Supply, Hurricane Worries

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050804/oil_prices.html?.v=16

BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) -- Oil prices rose Thursday as traders remained wary over possible supply woes because of refinery shutdowns and forecasters predicted a busy hurricane season that could hurt Gulf of Mexico output.

Light, sweet crude for September delivery rose 24 cents to $61.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"Years of underinvestment in the refinery sector have led to a very tightly supplied market, which in return pushed prices to current levels," said Alex Scott, a senior research analyst at Seven Investment Management in London.

"Direct market participants seem to believe that prices are to stay at current levels for years to come and the fact that there's very little evidence to show a slowdown in global demand is broadly supportive of their bullish argument," Scott said.

more...

[UpInArms]

21. CMS Energy profit jumps on tax benefit (Jobs Destruction Act), weather

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEF009025%2D9CFA%2D45A8%2DA4CC%2DBAB12A5AA253%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- CMS Energy Corp. said Thursday second-quarter earnings rose nearly 69%, bolstered by income tax benefits and higher electric deliveries to meet summer energy demand.

Based on two strong earnings periods in a row, the Michigan-based utility also announced plans to increase its 2005 earnings outlook by 5 cents a share to 95 cents from 90 cents.

<snip>

CMS said it recorded a $24 million income tax benefit in the second quarter due to the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 passed by Congress.

...more...

[54anickel]

23. Enron Settlements Hit Record $7 Billion

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/4245836/c_4246664?f=homex_todayinfinance

snip>

The amount tops the $6.1 billion awarded to WorldCom investors, making the Enron settlements the largest sum ever recovered in a group of securities class-action lawsuits.

snip>

Through its Enron-related suits, the University of California has also recovered $2.2 billion from JPMorganChase, $2 billion from Citigroup, $222.5 million from Lehman Brothers, $69 million from Bank of America, $168 million from Enron's outside directors, and $32 million from Andersen Worldwide. The university will also secure a distribution of about $32 million for investors through the bankruptcy proceeding for the LJM2 partnership that was used as part of the Enron scheme to hide losses and inflate earnings.

"This settlement demonstrates that the University's strategy of aggressively pursuing the defendants is working," said Lerach. "We continue to pursue other defendants, including other banks that have been charged with knowingly participating in the scheme to defraud Enron investors."

snip>

The remaining defendants in the investors' lawsuit include Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse First Boston, Barclays Bank, Deutsche Bank, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Royal Bank of Canada, and the Royal Bank of Scotland.

The banks are accused of setting up false investments in secretly controlled Enron partnerships, using offshore companies to disguise loans, and facilitating phony sales of phantom Enron assets. As a result, Enron executives were able to deceive investors by reporting increased cash flow from operations and by moving billions of dollars of debt off Enron's balance sheet, thereby artificially inflating securities prices, according to Lerach.

more...

[UpInArms]

24. (Ohio) Delafoil to close Perrysburg plant

http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050804/BUSINESS06/508040452

Delafoil Inc., which said two years ago it would consolidate its operations in Pennsylvania into its plant in Perrysburg, will close its suburban Toledo operation by mid-October.

The firm filed a closing notice last week with the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, indicating it has 53 workers at its factory that made components for the consumer electronics industry.

No company officials were available last night, but the firm said in its notice to the state that it expects the first layoffs to occur as soon as late this month.

...short blurb...

[UpInArms]

25. Fort Rucker Layoffs

http://www.wtvynews4.com/home/headlines/1771182.html

About 100 civilian employees at Fort Rucker are temporarily out of work after being told on Monday not to come to work.

A Fort Rucker spokesperson says this issue is part of the nation's effort against global terrorism.

<snip>

Lisa Eichhorn Fort Rucker Public Affairs says, "We're getting toward the end of the year and there is some shuffling of dollars and we need to make sure we have money. The mission comes first and supporting the global war on terrorism and our troops overseas is our first priority."

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. Feds Bless Sprint-Nextel Merger

http://www.internetnews.com/wireless/article.php/3525111

The Sprint-Nextel merger got a regulatory double dip of good news Wednesday with thumbs up for the $35 billion deal from both the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and the Department of Justice (DoJ).

The approval clears the ways for the merged companies to become the number three wireless provider in the United States with 45 million subscribers. Just as significant, the new the new Sprint Nextel will also control a large chunk of the 2.5 GHz band, where the company plans to offer advanced wireless services.

In its 4-0 approval, the FCC ruled the deal would not have a negative impact on future competition in the 2.5 GHz spectrum, despite the company's large license holdings in the band. Among the planned wireless services are broadband, voice and video offered on a mobile, fixed or portable basis.

<snip>

Only Commissioner Michael Copps sounded a cautionary note.

" is part of a trend that merits close and continuing monitoring by the ," Copps said. "In less than a year mergers have reduced the number of national wireless competitors by one third. Only last year consumers could choose between six national carriers. There are now only four. The FCC will have to take a hard look at whether we have gone about as far as we can go."

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. Cox pledges to work for investors at SEC

(Can you say: Credibility problem?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38568.4627999884-839931657&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission is "the investor's advocate," new SEC Chairman Christopher Cox told agency employees in a welcome speech Thursday. Cox took office Thursday after being nominated by President Bush on June 2 and confirmed by the Senate on July 29. Some groups have said Cox is too cozy with business interests but the former California congressman has pledged to vigorously uphold the SEC's charge of protecting investors.

[UpInArms]

32. Return of 30-year bond mix of good, bad news

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002419495_longbond04.html

WASHINGTON — The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is coming back.

To many, that is good news. But, in a way, it is also bad news.

It is good because it will help the U.S. government finance its huge deficit and debt at longer terms, even as the baby boom prepares to retire. It is good because it would offer investors, such as big pension funds and insurance companies in particular, a safe, longer-run option in which to park their large portfolios.

It is bad because it means that there is much a bigger deficit, and debt, to finance even as the baby boom prepares to retire.

It signals what most Americans know already. The nation's financial condition has worsened dramatically in a few years, and there is a need for a longer-term debt security that the government could issue to bring more certainty to its debt management.

<snip>

The government stopped selling the long bond in October 2001, back when it was a different world, financially speaking. There were few worries about the deficit and the market for 30-year bonds appeared to have dried up.

But that turned out to be the last year the government posted a surplus. Since then, that surplus has turned to deficit, so that now, the government forecasts nothing but year after year of red ink.

...more...

[UpInArms]

33. GMAC to Sell 60% of Commercial Mortgage Unit to KKR

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=ao5MB8fpTQw0&refer=top_world_news

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp.'s finance arm will sell a 60 percent stake in its commercial mortgage unit to an investor group that includes Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. to raise cash after most of GM's debt was cut to junk in May.

GM, which had been negotiating the sale since March, said in a statement today that it will maintain a 40 percent interest in the General Motors Acceptance Corp. unit. The transaction comes a week after GMAC said it will sell as much as $55 billion in auto loans to Bank of America Corp. through 2010.

The automaker, which has lost more than $2.2 billion building cars and trucks this year, is trying to reduce GMAC's funding costs while regaining auto buyers who have defected to Toyota Motor Corp. and other Asian rivals. The new investment may allow the commercial mortgage unit to win higher credit ratings and reduce the cost of raising money for loans.

...more...

[UpInArms]

35. Freddie Mac: 30-year mortgage averages 5.82% vs 5.77%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38568.4757909028-839933298&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- U.S. fixed-rate mortgages rose in the week ending Thursday, with the benchmark 30-year loan rising to 5.82% from 5.77% a week earlier, Freddie Mac said. The mortgage agency said its weekly survey also showed a rise for the 15-year loan, to 5.38% from 5.34%, and the one-year Treasury-indexed adjustable rate, which averaged 4.47% vs. 4.46% a week earlier. The five-year hybrid ARM also edged higher, to 5.30% from 5.27%. "Long-term mortgage rates will more than likely rise over the next few months, albeit modestly compared to shorter-term rates," said Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist at Freddie Mac, in a statement. "As the Federal Reserve increases its targeted overnight-lending rate, home-equity loans will become more costly."

[UpInArms]

37. 11:36 EST redder

Dow 10,646.80 -50.79 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,201.90 -14.91 (-0.67%)
S&P 500 1,239.60 -5.44 (-0.44%)
10-Yr Bond 4.292 -0.08 (-0.19%)

NYSE Volume 727,035,000
Nasdaq Volume 614,324,000

11:30AM: Stocks still mired in relatively tight trading ranges but continue to exhibit their toughness even as oil prices surpass $62/bbl... Crude oil futures, which have been rebounding all morning after yesterday's unexpected build in crude supplies left the commodity down 1.7%, have recently touched session highs following an increase in Natural Gas inventories of just 37 bcf, well below forecasts of 50 bcf and the lowest end of 40-65 bcf range... XOI +0.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1031/1908, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1003/1774

11:00AM: Little changed since the last update, but sellers remain in control of the early action... Of the ten worst performing S&P groups, six of them are tied to retail, as hot weather conditions weighed on July same-stores sales figures... July comps growth of 5.5% (consensus +5.7%) and downside Q2 revenue guidance from Target (TGT 56.19 -1.48) has kept General Merchandisers (-2.9%) out of favor while disappointments from Gap Stores (GPS 20.26 -0.68) and Limited Brands (LTD 24.16 -0.87) have weighed on Specialty Apparel (-2.7%)...

Even discounters like Wal-Mart (WMT 49.49 -0.19) and BJ's Wholesale (BJ 30.94 -0.07), which have reported better than expected increases in July comps of 4.4% and 4.7%, respectively, have lost ground... It is worth noting, however, that July remains one of the least important retailing months since many stores clear out summer merchandise to make room for fall items... ..RLX -1.7%... NYSE Adv/Dec 946/1967, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 968/1759

(updated blather)

[ozymandius]

39. Good morning UIA.

Good to see we're reaching for the same shiny coin again this morning.

:)

:hi:

[UpInArms]

41. Morning Ozy!

Looks like that coin is a bit tarnished today - oil above $62 again - retail sales disappointing - death everywhere - partygoers seem a bit glum even with the "fall" in initial claims.

:hi:

[ozymandius]

38. 11:43

Dow 10,646.08 -51.51 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,201.53 -15.28 (-0.69%)
S&P 500 1,239.73 -5.31 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 42.94 -0.06 (-0.14%)
NYSE Volume 759,156,000
Nasdaq Volume 639,815,000

11:30AM: Stocks still mired in relatively tight trading ranges but continue to exhibit their toughness even as oil prices surpass $62/bbl... Crude oil futures, which have been rebounding all morning after yesterday's unexpected build in crude supplies left the commodity down 1.7%, have recently touched session highs following an increase in Natural Gas inventories of just 37 bcf, well below forecasts of 50 bcf and the lowest end of 40-65 bcf range... XOI +0.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1031/1908, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1003/1774

[UpInArms]

46. 12:00 EST wallowing in red

Dow 10,624.19 -73.40 (-0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,195.65 -21.16 (-0.95%)
S&P 500 1,237.09 -7.95 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.302 +0.02 (+0.05%)

NYSE Volume 841,122,000
Nasdaq Volume 723,874,000

[UpInArms]

47. blather and redder numbers

12:09 ET

Dow 10,615.28 -82.31 (-0.77%)
Nasdaq 2,193.32 -23.49 (-1.06%)
S&P 500 1,236.11 -8.93 (-0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 4.302 +0.02 (+0.05%)
NYSE Volume 886,163,000
Nasdaq Volume 765,167,000

12:00PM: Major averages trade near session lows midday as a slew of warnings, mixed July same-store sales results and surging oil prices offset otherwise strong earnings reports, prompting broad-based consolidation in the wake of recent market gains... Even though the majority of this morning's S&P companies (8 out of 11) out with quarterly results have again topped Wall Street estimates, it appears most of the strong earnings reports have already been factored into a market which has recently lifted the S&P and Nasdaq to four-year highs...

To that end, the fact that earnings season is now winding down, investors have been reluctant to hold onto gains ahead of tomorrow's influential payrolls data, as nine out of ten economic sectors trade in negative territory... Coming off the best showing since May 2004, when June same-store sales growth checked in at 5.3% (consensus +4.5%), Consumer Discretionary has been the focal point this morning... But since extremely hot weather, and perhaps high gas prices, weighed on retailers last month, the sector has paced the way to the downside...

Wal-Mart (WMT 49.41 -0.27) reported strong comps of 4.7% (consensus 4.3%) and now expects Aug. comps to rise 3-5% but rival Target (TGT 56.31 -1.36) has posted a 5.5% rise in July comps (consensus +5.7%) and downside Q2 sales guidance... Other notable retailers missing expectations and guiding lower include JCP (-4.7%), FDO (-3.8%) and GPS (-2.8%)... Consolidation throughout brokerage, banking and insurance, as well as a modest rise in benchmark yields, continue to pressure the Financial sector...

[UpInArms]

40. Utah Educational Savings Plan Trust settles with SEC (Theft of Funds)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38568.4805539931-839933911&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -The Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday said it has settled a cease-and-desist proceeding against the Utah Educational Savings Plan Trust (UESP) for untrue statements and omissions by the UESP concerning errors in its systems of operation and method of accounting for investor transactions. The UESP administers a Section 529 educational savings plan for Utah. Separately, the SEC has filed a civil action against former UESP director Dale Hatch in federal court alleging he violated the securities laws by segregating $505,976 of unallocated participant funds into his own undisclosed nominee UESP accounts and transferring $85,000 of those funds to his personal bank accounts. That action seeks an injunction from future antifraud violations, disgorgement and civil monetary penalties.

Wonder if he's related to Orrin?

[ozymandius]

42. and the redness grows a little brighter

11:53
Dow 10,639.24 -58.35 (-0.55%)
Nasdaq 2,198.65 -18.16 (-0.82%)
S&P 500 1,238.63 -6.41 (-0.51%)
10-Yr Bond 43.02 +0.02 (+0.05%)
NYSE Volume 810,044,000
Nasdaq Volume 693,622,000

[UpInArms]

44. and the buck continues to bleed

Last trade 87.70 Change -0.29 (-0.33%)

Settle 87.99 Settle Time 23:36

Open 88.04 Previous Close 87.99

High 88.23 Low 87.69

[54anickel]

48. Consumer Confidence Leads the Way

http://www.forexnews.com/AI/default.asp

Friday’s advance release of GDP for the United States showed economic growth increased at an annual rate of 3.4% in the second quarter of this year. Although this figure was just shy of the consensus estimate of 3.5%, it continues to highlight the important role of the American consumer as a driving force for growth, not only in the US, but globally as well. Indeed, as the chart below illustrates, personal consumption has become an increasingly integral part of the US economy, accounting for over 70.1% of US GDP in the second quarter of this year.



snip>

While businesses have always been interested in understanding their customers’ state-of-mind, it is interesting to note that since consumption began to account for a greater percent of GDP (starting in 1997), consumer confidence also seems to be having an effect on decisions made by the Federal Reserve as well. This fact is important because some may claim that it was greater openness by the FOMC in their policy statements that led to greater confidence of consumers as to the direction of interest rates, thus reversing the direction of influence we have heretofore established. However, it was not until August 2003, in which the Fed stated that interest rates would remain low for a “considerable period,” that the FOMC started to telegraph its future rate decisions. Therefore, it seems that it is the consumer, and not greater transparency by the Fed, that is the driving force. To that end, a look at overall consumer confidence (as defined by the average monthly value of both the Conference Board’s index and the University of Michigan’s index) reveals a strong correlation with the Fed Funds target rate, as indicated by the chart below in which we plotted the three month moving average – so as to smooth out volatility – against the Fed Funds rate.



Apart from the spike in confidence following the September 11th terrorist attacks, in which consumers made a concerted effort to rally together, the confidence (or lack thereof) of consumers and the decisions of the FOMC has been closely linked, with movements of the former often preceding those of the latter. The importance of this relationship is that, as The Economist noted, consumer confidence provides hints about the possibility of a recession and serves as a better indicator of downturns in the economy than the stock market. Therefore, keeping a close eye on the state of the American consumer may lead to a better understanding of the US economy, as well as any potential change in monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

Of course, some critics will argue that it is the actual behavior of consumers that matters and not their attitudes. This is a valid concern, especially given the fact that many people, for example, often lament about the high price of gasoline as they are rushing out to buy yet another gas-guzzling SUV. However, a comparison of both consumer consumption and confidence shows a more cohesive unison in attitudes and behavior than anecdotal evidence belies.

more...

[ozymandius]

50. hardly any slowdown in the drop - bonds take a hit too

12:35
Dow 10,623.07 -74.52 (-0.70%)
Nasdaq 2,193.96 -22.85 (-1.03%)
S&P 500 1,236.64 -8.40 (-0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 43.08 +0.08 (+0.19%)
NYSE Volume 980,099,000
Nasdaq Volume 846,888,000

12:00PM: Major averages trade near session lows midday as a slew of warnings, mixed July same-store sales results and surging oil prices offset otherwise strong earnings reports, prompting broad-based consolidation in the wake of recent market gains... Even though the majority of this morning's S&P companies (8 out of 11) out with quarterly results have again topped Wall Street estimates, it appears most of the strong earnings reports have already been factored into a market which has recently lifted the S&P and Nasdaq to four-year highs...

To that end, the fact that earnings season is now winding down, investors have been reluctant to hold onto gains ahead of tomorrow's influential payrolls data, as nine out of ten economic sectors trade in negative territory... Coming off the best showing since May 2004, when June same-store sales growth checked in up 5.3% (consensus +4.5%), Consumer Discretionary has been the focal point this morning... But since extremely hot weather, and perhaps high gas prices, weighed on retailers last month, the sector has paced the way to the downside...

Wal-Mart (WMT 49.41 -0.27) reported strong comps of 4.7% (consensus 4.3%) and now expects Aug. comps to rise 3-5%, but rival Target (TGT 56.31 -1.36) has posted a 5.5% rise in July comps (consensus +5.7%) and downside Q2 sales guidance... Other notable retailers missing expectations and guiding lower include JCP (-4.7%), FDO (-3.8%) and GPS (-2.8%)... Consolidation throughout brokerage, banking and insurance, as well as a modest rise in benchmark yields (4.30%), continue to pressure the Financial sector...

[ozymandius]

52. deeper still

1:30
Dow 10,613.84 -83.75 (-0.78%)
Nasdaq 2,192.44 -24.37 (-1.10%)
S&P 500 1,235.98 -9.06 (-0.73%)
10-Yr Bond 43.16 +0.16 (+0.37%)
NYSE Volume 1,163,134,000
Nasdaq Volume 990,346,000

1:00PM: Holding steady at sharply lower levels as the market continues to sport broad-based losses... While the indices had been showing relatively good resilience as oil prices initially eclipsed the $62/bbl over an hour ago, it seems the commodity's latest push through that level and a lack of ensuing leadership from the Energy sector has merely exacerbated early selling pressure and reluctance on the part of buyers to own stocks ahead of Friday's job figures... NYSE Adv/Dec 967/2162, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 921/1981

[DoBotherMe]

54. KICK n/t

[UpInArms]

55. 2:40 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,622.36 -75.23 (-0.70%)
Nasdaq 2,195.25 -21.56 (-0.97%)
S&P 500 1,237.15 -7.89 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.323 +0.23 (+0.53%)

NYSE Volume 1,410,663,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,185,022,000

2:30PM: Selling remains the name of the game as a bearish bias remains intact... Decliners on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq hold a 2 to 1 advantage over advancers while a 3-to-1 ratio of down to up volume suggests an even more negative tone to overall trading... Adding to today's struggles have been the indices' inability to find initial support near key technical levels of 10635, 1238 and 2203 on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, respectively, as total volume is also running below the pace of the last few sessions... NYSE Adv/Dec 1018/2158, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 953/2036

2:00PM: More of the same for the major averages, as selling remains widespread across most areas... The U.S. markets may also be taking notice of weakness throughout Europe, after the Bank of England cut benchmark rates for the first time in two years by 25 bps to 4.50% and the ECB left rates unchanged at 2.0%... Earlier, the DAX Index and CAC 40 down 1.0% and 0.8%, respectively, while the FTSE 100 Index also lost ground... NYSE Adv/Dec 988/2189, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 931/2030

[ozymandius]

56. 3:33

Dow 10,624.51 -73.08 (-0.68%)
Nasdaq 2,194.84 -21.97 (-0.99%)
S&P 500 1,237.48 -7.56 (-0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 43.19 +0.19 (+0.44%)
NYSE Volume 1,666,797,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,383,230,000

3:00PM: Broader market action leaves little to be desired, but there are some individual stories of note generating excitement... Electronic Data Systems (EDS 23.37 +2.08) has been the best performing S&P component today after saying last night that FY06 earnings will exceed analysts' forecasts... Two other strong performing S&P constituents shrugging off widespread weakness in technology have been Network Appliance (NTAP 26.25 +1.02) and Autodesk (ADSK 36.52 +0.48)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1038/2176, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 971/2035

2:30PM: Selling remains the name of the game as a bearish bias remains intact... Decliners on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq hold a 2 to 1 advantage over advancers while a 3-to-1 ratio of down to up volume suggests an even more negative tone to overall trading... Adding to today's struggles have been the indices' inability to find initial support near key technical levels of 10635, 1238 and 2203 on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, respectively, as total volume is also running below the pace of the last few sessions... NYSE Adv/Dec 1018/2158, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 953/2036

[ozymandius]

57. Oof! Here's the close.

Dow 10,610.10 -87.49 (-0.82%)
Nasdaq 2,191.32 -25.49 (-1.15%)
S&P 500 1,235.86 -9.18 (-0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 43.19 +0.19 (+0.44%)
NYSE Volume 1,928,682,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,590,800,000

blather still to come

[ozymandius]

58. blather

Close: Broad-based consolidation following five consecutive weeks of market gains, spurred by disappointing chain store sales and an ensuing flood of warnings, kept buyers on the sidelines heading into tomorrow's influential jobs report...

Even as investors sifted through another batch of better than expected earnings - a main driver behind the S&P and Nasdaq climbing to four-year highs over the last few weeks - the fact that the majority of the S&P (80%) have already posted results (signaling an end to earnings season) left investors looking elsewhere for catalysts to support the market's recent rally... To that end, upcoming economic reports began to take center stage, with the month's most important - the July employment report -in queue to provide the latest update on the health of the economy... A rebound in oil prices ($61.38/bbl +$0.52) following yesterday's 1.1% sell-off, amid concern that limited U.S. refinery capacity won't be able to meet fuel demand, perhaps also added to the market's overall nervousness but even as the commodity pared its gains into the close the markets showed little reaction...

With expectations running high a month after the retail industry posted its best same-store sales performance since May 2004 (+5.3% versus forecasts of +4.5%), many eyes were on Consumer Discretionary... However, July same-stores sales checked in up 3.6%, slightly below an expected rise of 4.0%, raising some questions about consumer spending patterns... Wal-Mart (WMT 49.28 -0.40) reported strong July comps of 4.7% (consensus 4.3%) and now sees Aug. comps rising 3-5%, but rival Target (TGT 56.15 -1.52) posted a 5.5% rise in July comps (consensus +5.7%) and downside Q2 sales guidance...

[54anickel]

61. Not good heading into a Friday. Unless those job numbers are stellar

I'm guessing it will be another liquidation sale heading into the weekend. Then again, you never know when those bargain hunters might turn up. :eyes:

Scary that the main driver has been those better than expected earnings, since they really weren't all that great. Didn't most of those forecasts set the bar fairly low?

[ozymandius]

62. As I recall, sveral companies issued profit warning.

But I have no clue if those issuing warnings have any correlation to those posting scrawny profits.

[UpInArms]

59. Foreign central banks turn net sellers of US debt - Fed

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-08-04T203001Z_01_NAT001732_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-FOREIGNERS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Foreign central banks turned
net sellers of U.S. debt in the latest week, as heavy selling
of Treasuries offset buying of agency debt, Federal Reserve
data showed on Thursday.


The Fed said its overall holdings of Treasury and agency
debt kept for overseas central banks fell by $5.014 billion in
the week ended Aug. 3 to stand at $1.453 trillion.


The breakdown of custody holdings showed overseas central
banks sold $6.875 billion in Treasury debt in the latest week.


But their holdings of U.S. agency debt advanced $1.861
billion, building again on recent additions of holdings of this
class of debt.


The full Fed report can be found on:


http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/

...more...

[54anickel]

60. So, what all makes up US agency debt anyway? GSEs? I found

this while googling

ECB Recommends Central Banks Sell U.S. Agency Debt, Person Says

July 28 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank is eliminating its holdings of debt issued by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the two biggest U.S. providers of mortgage financing, and recommended that its national central banks do the same, according to a person who has seen the ECB's recommendation.

The Frankfurt-based central bank, which sets interest rates for the 12 countries sharing the euro, gave its opinion at the last meeting of the 18-member governing council on July 10, said the person who declined to be named. ECB spokeswoman Regina Schueller declined to comment. Officials of the 12 central banks declined to comment.

Freddie Mac is under investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and federal prosecutors after overstating earnings, leading to the ouster of its top three managers. The difference between yields on Freddie Mac notes and comparable U.S. government debt has increased this year as investors perceive Freddie Mac debt to be more risky.

``Some investors will ask themselves: Is this really as safe as I thought it was? And some will say: This is too risky for me,'' said Louis Hagen, general manager of the Association of German Mortgage Banks in Berlin.

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On edit - nevermind - found an answer

http://www.investinginbonds.com/learnmore.asp?catid=9&subcatid=65

The U.S. agency debt market is a large and important component of the global fixed income market. Issuers in the agency market include both federal agencies and government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) created by Congress to provide credit to key sectors of the economy such as housing, agriculture, exports and small businesses.

snip>

Agencies and GSEs have many advantages over other debt issuers:

They can borrow more cheaply.
They can have different capital regulations than banks and other financial institutions.
They have certain exemptions from state and local taxes.
Agency securities also have special status that makes them acceptable collateral in certain banking transactions, including some involving Federal Reserve Banks. In addition, certain bank regulations allow commercial banks to invest in agency debt to a greater extent than other capital markets debt.

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