STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 10 August

[ozymandius]

Wednesday August 10, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 164 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 233 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 297 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1354
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 9, 2005

Dow... 10,615.67 +78.74 (+0.75%)
Nasdaq... 2,174.19 +9.80 (+0.45%)
S&P 500... 1,231.38 +8.25 (+0.67%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.39% -0.03 (-0.57%)
Gold future... 439.80 -0.50 (-0.11%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif - THE TECHNICAL PICTURE

Summary

All the indicators have formed patterns that are identical to the ones we observed in early and mid-June which resulted in the latest rally. Either the market is consolidating in a bullish manner like it did previously, or it is building a top of significance, and instead of a bullish resolution, we'll get a break-down. If the SP can stay above 1230-1220 over the next 5 trading days, the odds favoring a bullish resolution that will take the SP up to the 1280-1290 zone will increase dramatically (see scenario #1 directly below). On the other hand, if the SP closes below 1220 for two consecutive days sometime over the next 5-7 trading days, the odds favoring a bearish resolution that will take the SP down to the 1200 zone will increase dramatically (see scenario #2 directly below). Furthermore, a close below 1200 can result in a full scale retreat back down to channel support in the 1170-1165 zone (see scenario #3 directly below).

Given that the McClellan Oscillators are already in oversold territory yet the indices have not violated support, we have to assume that in all likelihood we are dealing with scenario #2, and after a little bit more of "backing and filling," the indices will attempt to stage another rally.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[whistle]

2. Love the cartoon, just wished he'd used a huge chain saw......

...eating a lot of gas and destroyed another square mile of trees! But then, he's the artist, not me. Thanks.

Oh, as for the stock market crash, I'm expecting it sometime in late September 2005. Where would a safe place be to put all of ones investments in Wall Street before that happens?

[radfringe]

3. Question: Where would a safe place

be to put all of ones investments in Wall Street before that happens?

answer: :evilgrin: Halliburton?

[whistle]

18. No thanks....

[ozymandius]

4. Thank you for the compliment.

As for the stock market crashing: what makes you believe that we'll see a crash in September? Just curious.

As a general rule, this thread does offer itself as a resource for investment recommendations. Some of the contributors may state investments they have made with either success or disappointment. That being said: my grandfather (born 1889) always went for land, land and land in the Great Depression era. Of course, that was when land was cheap and people grew most of their own food. Too many of the investment herd have been driven into wild land speculation in recent years. So that direction does not seem to have the sound economic foundation it once had.

But your question is about Wall Street investments. You really need to know your acceptable level of risk before you answer that question for yourself. You can test your risk aversion/acceptance at most major borkerage websites. They commonly offer a free survey. A certified financial planner would be able to help too.

[wli]

5. interesting... what's the outlook on the euro?

Also, how can I get money into bank accounts denominated and/or valued in euros (so it won't devalue if the dollar tanks vs. the euro)? I had a tough time tracking down how to get such an account without very expensive travel.

[ozymandius]

16. I've found online resources.

http://www.offshore.hsbc.com/1/2/international/current-accounts/cheque-deposit-account

http://www.swiss-bank-account-24.com/

http://www.aib.ie/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=AIB_Ireland/IHPHomepage
http://www.aibusa.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=AIB_USA/USA_Homepage

I do not know too much about these banks/brokerages. HSBC has received several mentions as a very stable enterprise. AIB has as well.

EDIT: You might want to check out this column:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P100069.asp

[AnneD]

26. Morning Marketeers

:donut: This is my monthly (at the very least) thanks to Ozy, 54, and all the other technical contributers to the thread. Your thoughts and comments surely raise my financial/investment IQ. To the lurkers :hi: .
I am a risk taker by nature so I have to exercise care, esp as I get older. I went in last year and balanced my portfolio. I divide it into 30% secure, 40% moderate risk, and 30% risky. I chose to put most of my risk money in foreign emerging markets. I have had a good year in the stocks.
But as I have been reading and observing the market, I have stopped my 403B contributions and have focused on paying off debt (the rates on debt is far more interest in your pocket that many investments offer at this time). The market is so screwed up now and I think it is being run like a side show carnival shell game and small investors are the johns.
Cash IS a position and I want to have some to pick up the bargains I expect to be available soon. I don't know how or when but I feel we will have serious corrections in several investment markets (esp when the 'experts' start saying that the sky is the limit/get in now before the price goes up even more).
SO....have a great day and watch out for the bears......

[whistle]

37. My friend and mentor Bob D. used to say "trust your feelings....

....go with the Force". I wish I could give you more, but all I can say is if nothing negative happens by the end of September, I'll adjust based on my new feelings then.

My question actually is about my IRAs and retirement 401Ks which are partly in stocks. Sometimes I feel quite helpless about doing anything to advert a disaster on my retirement funds since Shrub allowed the economy to go into and continue its free fall at the beginning of his first term.

[AnneD]

43. May I humbly suggest.....

Reading a few good personal finance books to help you. I started out with the Personal Finance for Dummies and graduated to David Bach's Automatic Millionare. I am doing post graduate work in Dave Ramsey now to reduce personal debt. There are all sorts of help assesing your risk comfort level, planing, and once you become a bit more knowledgable, you can feel more secure in your investments. Will you loose----yes. Will you make a profit------yes. How though, will you ever know your potential unless you try. This economy has been badly managed, so I am not expecting much. I am content in battening down my hatches at this point, but that is my personal choice at the moment.

[54anickel]

6. Daily Dollar Watch (I believe UIA is out for the week?)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.65 Change -0.24 (-0.27%)

Settle 87.89 Settle Time 23:35

Open 87.86 Previous Close 87.89

High 87.97 Low 87.45


When Rate Hikes Don`t Matter
http://www.forexnews.com/AI/default.asp



In its 10th interest rate hike of the present tightening cycle, the Federal Open Market Committee stuck with the script of the last 10 months, of gradual interest rate hikes and a balanced economic assessment. More specifically, as the text shows above, the main two differences was stating that: 1) aggregate spending were unfazed by rising energy prices and; 2) adding a new sentence about “Core inflation” being tempered despite the usually reference to “elevated” inflationary pressures.


* After adding that inflationary expectations were elevated in March, May and June, FOMC indicated that core inflation was low.

Despite the 10th interest rate hike, the US dollar moved broadly lower. Although the Fed has raised rates 10 times, the dollar is at 2-month lows against the euro and 1-month lows against the pound and the Swissy. Meanwhile, the dollar index is at 6 week lows. Interestingly, dollar weakness has intensified despite upward revisions (according to the market) in the year-end Fed funds target to 4.25% from 3.50-75%. The underlying currents in the foreign exchange markets are dictated by a summer-time interruptum of a 6-month rally, resulting from profit-taking and a changing landscape in Europe.

But more importantly, it was the July 21 revaluation of the Chinese yuan that proved most instrumental in stabilizing the dollar rally before triggering the gradual turnaround. Regardless of repetitive “clarifications” from the People’s Bank of China indicating that subsequent revaluations were not automatic, markets are certain that further moves must follow in order for China to reduce the need to sterilize its massive interventions. The importance of the “China revaluation” factor is also underlined by the fact that it had become another fundamental variable in the long term equation of the US dollar fundamentals. In 2004 for instance, the dollar’s equation included the positive attributes of higher GDP growth, higher interest rates and efficient capital markets, while the negative attributes included twin deficits amounting to nearly 9% of GDP. The negative attributes could also be categorized in their longer-term nature. But now that a China revaluation has become a reality, it can safely be “added” to the long-term inevitabilities that will be dollar negative.

more...


China Sheds More Light on Currency Basket
http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

The US dollar is weaker this morning, despite the much anticipated 25 bp increase in interest rates announced by the Federal Reserve yesterday afternoon. In fact, even the prospect of the Fed ratcheting up the pace of interest rate hikes so that year-end rates equate to 4.25% from previous estimates of 3.50-3.75% has provided little support as the dollar hits 2-month lows against the euro and the Swissie and a 1-month low against sterling.

With no major economic data due out from the US until tomorrow’s release of retail sales and business inventories and Friday’s trade data, movement within the currency market will be largely dictated by technical factors. Of course China, however, continues to remain the wild card and today’s speech by People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan has not only kept the revaluation of the yuan front and center, but it could further weaken the US dollar.

In a speech at the inauguration ceremony of the PBoC Shanghai Head Office today, Governor Zhou shed further light on the composition of the trade-weighted currency basket to which the yuan is now tied. Citing the opinion that “shares of trade in goods and services should be the fundamental considerations in the selection of the basket currencies and the weights assigned to the currencies in the basket,” Governor Zhou indicated that the US dollar, euro, yen and South Korean won would become the major currencies of the basket. However, the actual weight assigned to each currency was not discussed and, furthermore, the head of the central bank went on to say that the structure of foreign debt, FDI and current transfer items under the current account should also be considered, which means that the currencies of Singapore, UK, Malaysia, Russia, Australia, Thailand and Canada will also play a vital role in the basket.

Although we are still no closer to understanding the actual weights assigned to each currency in the basket, the speech by Governor Zhou confirmed the fact that the US dollar will no longer play the lead role in a one-man show, but rather it will be part of an ensemble cast.

USDJPY breaks below 111

more...

[54anickel]

7. Dollar Falls Against Euro in European Trading

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050810/dollar.html?.v=3

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- The U.S. dollar fell against the 12-nation euro currency Wednesday despite a decision by the Federal Reserve to raise a key interest rate to a four-year high of 3.5 percent.

snip>

The dollar was also lower against the British pound, which rose to $1.7946 from $1.7864 the night before, and also fell against the Japanese currency to 110.90 yen from 111.96 yen the night before.

The euro rose to an all-time high of $1.3667 in December on concerns about the U.S. trade and budget

After slipping to the $1.20 range, it has been rising again recently on those same fears, coupled with high oil prices, despite other positive U.S. economic data.

It remains far above the low of 82 cents it hit in October 2000.

more...

[54anickel]

12. China FX reforms pick up pace, yuan basket detailed

http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=uri:2005-08-10T063128Z_01_PEK79199_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-ECONOMY-CHINA-DC.XML&pageNumber=0&summit=


snip>

The central bank said that banks would be allowed to trade yuan currency forwards and swaps with each other in the onshore interbank market and that it would let more financial and import-export businesses participate in the spot foreign exchange market.

"To allow the market to play a greater role in the foreign exchange formation process and to play a basic role in resource allocation, the People's Bank of China has decided to speed up the development of the interbank forex market to provide more risk-control tools for both banks and companies," the bank said in a statement on its Web site (www.pbc.gov.cn).

The central bank's governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, also made good on a promise to disclose some details of the basket of currencies to which the bank refers in managing the float of the yuan now that it is no longer joined at the hip with the dollar.

"The currencies in the basket depend on the amount of foreign trade we conduct. The U.S., euro zone, Japan and South Korea are our biggest trading partners now," Zhou said in Shanghai. "Hence, their currencies are naturally the main ones in the basket."

snip>

"Progress is coming through rather more quickly and more dramatically than we had expected," he said. "It's very promising. All of these announcements increase the prospect for a much more liquid onshore market."

WE'LL BE WATCHING

more...

[54anickel]

8. Americans own a lower percentage of their homes than in the past, increasi

Americans own a lower percentage of their homes than in the past, increasing risk.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/04/real_estate/buying_selling/home_equity_falling/index.htm

snip>

On average, homeowners have 56.3 percent equity in their homes, according to Demos, a public-interest research group. In 1973, equity averaged 68.3 percent; in the 1950s, it was upwards of 80 percent.

Two main factors are at work:

Homeowners are starting off further behind. In the past, the standard downpayment was 20 percent. A 2003 National Association of Realtors survey reported than less than half of all home buyers now put that much down; many obtain 100 percent, even 103 percent, financing.

Homeowners are yanking out cash. From 2001 through 2004, Americans took $330 billion in equity out of their homes, according Freddie Mac. In 2005 alone, they'll pull out as much as $160 billion.

Demos's senior research associate and author of A House of Cards: Refinancing the American Dream, Javier Silva, said that, even in the absence of a real estate crash, many families "are facing a financial crisis," partially because they've taken on more mortgage debt.

more...

[54anickel]

9. Mortgage applications fall again

http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/10/real_estate/mortgages.reut/

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Applications for home mortgages fell last week, its third consecutive drop, as refinancing activity waned and interest rates reached four-month highs, industry group figures showed Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity fell 0.9 percent to 745.0 in the week ending Aug. 5, adding to the previous week's 0.3 percent loss.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications also fell for a third consecutive week, dropping 3.3 percent to 2176.5 after falling 3 percent the prior week.

Purchasing activity, however, rose for a second straight week.

more...

[54anickel]

10. Stocks Open Higher on Fed Rate Hike

:wtf: Rising interest rates are now good for stocks?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050810/wall_street.html?.v=5

NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stocks are trading higher Wednesday on the momentum generated by the hike in the fed funds rate Tuesday, which helped the Nikkei reach its highest level in about 16 months.
The Dow Jones industrial average is up 14.73 points, the Nasdaq is ahead 4.13 points and the S&P is up 1.94 points.

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates for the tenth-consecutive time, lifting its short-term rate target to 3.5 percent from 3.25 percent, and signaling more increases to come. Analysts and markets are raising their estimates of how much further the Fed will go, because the economy is strengthening, inflation a bit less favorable and long-term interest rates remain unusually low.

snip>

Mortgage giant Fannie Mae confirmed Monday that it will miss the deadline this week for filing its second-quarter earnings report with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The delay came as no surprise, as Fannie continues to revamp its accounting practices while undergoing an expansive re-audit that is expected to show earnings were overstated by several billion dollars over the last several years. CEO Daniel Mudd and other top executives will host a conference call Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT to update investors.

more...

[AnneD]

34. Well.....

Who would think that unemployment in an economy that is based 2/3rds on consumer spending would be viewed by the market as favourable :wtf:

[54anickel]

11. 9:39 and we're off!!! Shootin' for the moon today

Dow 10,678.49 +62.82 (+0.59%)
Nasdaq 2,181.37 +7.18 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 1,237.65 +6.27 (+0.51%)
10-yr Bond 4.364% -0.03
30-yr Bond 4.551% -0.02
NYSE Volume 94,122,000
Nasdaq Volume 109,038,000

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +6.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5.
9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +6.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Stage remains set for strong follow-through buying efforts to lift the major averages at the open, as futures trade remains comfortably above fair value... Also underpinning an improved sentiment has been an overnight rally in Asian markets, as the Nikkei advanced 1.7% - its best level in 16 months, while the Hang Seng surged 2.0%, closing at new 4-year highs

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Still shaping up to be a higher open for the cash market as an upbeat sentiment in the futures market remains intact... Even in the absence of notable economic data this morning and a rebound in oil prices ahead of the EIA's weekly oil inventories report (10:30 ET), the first back-to-back gain in the benchmark 10-year note, which is up 4 ticks to yield 4.37%, has also provided some early support for equities

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +6.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a higher open for the cash market as validation of the Fed's economic optimism amid "relatively low" core inflation overshadows mixed earnings reports... Last night, American International Group (AIG) beat forecasts by $0.07 while Walt Disney (DIS) also turned in solid Q2 earnings, but missed on revenues, and Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat analysts' Q4 estimates by a penny but issued disappointing Q1 (Oct) sales guidance

6:26AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +6.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0.

[ozymandius]

13. climbing down a bit

9:49
Dow 10,673.47 +57.80 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,180.08 +5.89 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,237.51 +6.13 (+0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 43.71 -0.23 (-0.52%)
NYSE Volume 170,613,000
Nasdaq Volume 180,468,000

9:40AM: Market opens higher across the board as the Fed's optimistic economic outlook helps investors assess the longer-term fundamentals of owning stocks at current levels... Even though the Fed expectedly raised interest rates 1/4% for a tenth consecutive time yesterday (to 3.5%) and said it will stick to a steady pace (e.g. 25 basis point increases per meeting) of further rate hikes, the fact that spending and labor market conditions continue to strengthen, while core inflation remains well contained, has been cause for celebration amongst investors at the onset...

[54anickel]

14. The morning porridge was juuuuust right and went great with the Kool-aid

comin' outta Crawford yesterday.

[54anickel]

15. Small-Business Owners' Confidence Falls in June

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-small10aug10,1,6497174.story?coll=la-headlines-business

A quarterly U.S. survey of small-business owners shows that confidence and optimism have fallen, matching a low in 2004, in part because of worries over record gasoline prices.

The Wells Fargo/Gallup small-business index fell to 99 in June from 110 in March. That matched the level in September 2004 and is the lowest since a 93 reading in December 2003.

"Small-business owners are closer than a lot of Wall Street to the average consumer," said Dennis Jacobe, the Gallup Organization's chief economist. "When they see what higher pump prices are doing to consumers' ability to buy, I'm not surprised their future expectations have declined."

snip>

"Small-business owners are less optimistic about interest rates, which as shown today continue to rise," Jacobe said. "There is concern the economy may not be as strong as a lot of people are assuming."

more...

[ozymandius]

17. 10am bounce

10:12
Dow 10,692.10 +76.43 (+0.72%)
Nasdaq 2,182.99 +8.80 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,240.29 +8.91 (+0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 43.67 -0.27 (-0.61%)
NYSE Volume 333,342,000
Nasdaq Volume 332,083,000

10:00AM: Equities extend their reach to the upside as the bulk of sector leadership remains positive... The interest-rate sensitive Utilities sector has paced the way higher as benchmark yields continue to fall but Financial, also getting a lift from a decline in borrowing costs, has gotten an additional boost from a 51% year-over-year surge in Q2 profits from American International Group (AIG 62.89 +1.47)...

Also helping to offset confirmation that Fannie Mae (FNM 53.21 -1.62) will miss the deadline for filing its Q2 report with the SEC and an analyst downgrade on Allstate (ALL 58.30 -0.48) has been a 1.3% surge in American Express (AXP 56.29 +0.70), after being upgraded at Morgan Stanley to Equal-Weight... Technology has posted a modest gain, as an analyst upgrade on Qualcomm (QCOM 39.65 +0.88), strength in Dell (DELL 40.12 +0.24) ahead of its Q2 report tomorrow and continued momentum in chip stocks offset disappointing Q1 (Oct) sales guidance from Cisco Systems (CSCO 18.75 -0.86)...

Health Care has shown relative strength after the FDA granted Pfizer (PFE 26.73 +0.22) fast-track status for its cancer drug Sutent while Energy has traded higher as oil prices rebound ahead of weekly inventories data (10:30 ET)... The EIA is expected to show a 1.0 mln barrel decline in crude supplies, a 2.0 mln barrel draw in gasoline supplies and a 1.75 mln barrel build in distillates...

[54anickel]

20. YEE-HAW!!! Come-on 10,700!!! I see the NAS & S&P broke the

resistance quoted in yesterday's yada of 2185 and 1233. See if they can hold on. Must be a good day to own stocks. :eyes:

[54anickel]

19. Oops! Is China's communist slip showing?

Or is this some western propaganda? I'm suspicious since my "lead" came from a Wall Street Journal headline that had FBI and Chinese spies in it. Can't remember the exact wording and the link has been pulled from Prudent Bear. :shrug:

Ottawa deports Falun Gong member

OTTAWA -- As the federal government prepares to welcome Chinese President Hu Jintao, it has deported to China a member of Falun Gong, a spiritual movement that is banned by Beijing.

The deportation of the 54-year-old Chinese woman last week is the first time Canada has deported a Falun Gong adherent since China banned the group in 1999, Canadian Falun Gong representatives say.

Hu Xiaoping entered Canada two years ago on a visitor's visa to be with her sister, who was dying of cancer in Montreal. Ms. Hu had been a member of Falun Gong in China in the 1990s. She was rounded up after the 1999 crackdown, sent for "re-education" in a labour camp and forced to renounce her beliefs, according to her Montreal lawyer, Michael Bergman.

snip>

Ms. Hu's deportation came just eight weeks after a Chinese police defector in Australia said the Chinese Public Security Bureau maintained a vast network of spies in Canada and other Western countries to keep track of Falun Gong practitioners.

Falun Gong was banned as a "dangerous cult" in China after thousands of members staged a surprise peaceful demonstration outside the residential compound of Chinese Communist Party leaders in Beijing in 1999.

Tens of thousands of members remain in detention and hundreds may have died in custody from torture, abuse or neglect, according to a U.S. State Department human-rights report.



CCP’s Conspiracy: Malaysia Confiscates and Bans the import of The Epoch Times

http://english.epochtimes.com/news/5-8-8/31063.html

According to the recent report from the World Organization to Investigate the Persecution of Falun Gong (WOIPFG), the confiscation of The Epoch Times (Chinese vision) in Malaysia is the result of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) long schemed interference to the independent overseas Chinese medias; international societies should be alert and pay special attention to the CCP’s attempt to suppress freedom of the press and freedom of expression..
Suppression Attempt Schemed by Ministry of Public Security

The WOIPFG said since late October 2004, Liu Jing, China’s Deputy Minister of Public Security and Head of CCP’ Central Committee “610 Office,” instructed No.26 Bureau of Ministry of Public Security- which is purposely set up to persecute Falun Gong- to hold a meeting in Shenzhen with other 9 Provincial and Municipal Public Security Bureaus and “610 Offices” including Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjing, Shandong, etc. The objective of the meeting is to come up with a plan to damage independent overseas media including The Epoch Times, using different means such as the use of “secret overseas forces”, implementing “special dispatch jobs” (dispatching spies), etc. The plan demands the use of a lot of manpower, material resources and funds.

snip>

Active Cooperation by Overseas Chinese Embassies and Consulates

The WOIPFG said, the Chinese Embassies and Consulates overseas actively cooperate with the CCP in suppressing media such as The Epoch Times. On December 21, 2004, The Epoch Times held a Nine Commentaries on the Communist Party forum in National Press Club (NPC) in Washington. Prior to the commencement of the forum, the Chinese Embassy had called the club requesting them to cancel the forum, but the request was turned down by Co-Chairman of NPC’s Freedom of Press Committee Mr. John Donnelly.

Since May 14, 2005, the company that printed The Epoch Times (Hong Kong version) stopped printing for The Epoch Times because of threats from the CCP.

more...


Envoy's defection puts focus on China espionage

http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2005/07/24/envoys_defection_puts_focus_on_china_espionage/

snip>

Beijing disputed Chen's assertions and similar charges by Hao Fengjun, a second Chinese official applying for an Australian visa. The allegations are ''fabrication and lies," Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said in Beijing. ''Sino-Australia relations should not pay a price for two such people and two such incidents."

''We have some Chinese who don't like China that much and want to profit for their own personal agenda," Fu Ying, China's ambassador to Australia, said last week. Chen ''now appears to be hating China so much, but China offered him the best a young man can have."

The incident could reverberate beyond Australian shores, analysts said, emboldening China's critics at a time when US Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and other Washington conservatives are expressing concern about Beijing's intentions and questioning its growing military spending.

Like those of most countries, China's intelligence efforts employ a system of concentric circles, analysts said. Unlike US intelligence agencies, with their reliance on satellite data and high technology, China is known for its ''humint," or human intelligence.

''They can and do send out thousands of people with limited tasking, flooding the target country," said Larry M. Wortzel, a former US Army attache in Beijing now at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington.

more...

[loudsue]

54. That's pretty scary.

However, can we send some of the fundies to China? Like, maybe Falwell, Robertson, & crew?

<snip>
" sent for "re-education" in a labour camp and forced to renounce her beliefs, according to her Montreal lawyer, Michael Bergman."

That's sickening that the Chinese do this. But at least they have some sort of policy on how to deal with religious extremists, who these days seem to be killing each other right and left, and/or trying to take over governments.

Mind you, I don't condone torture camps or forced labor camps, FOR ANY REASON. But maybe governments need to step back and take a look at formulating some sort of policy to prevent religious fanaticism from disrupting the lives of peaceful-living citizens.

:kick::kick::kick:

[54anickel]

55. Hey LoudSue, Yeah, it's pretty sick, but I'm suspicious - seems to

be trumped up a bit. :shrug: I don't doubt they slammed down this "cult" rather swiftly, but in this large of a scale and this brutally - I dunno.

Tens of thousands of members remain in detention and hundreds may have died in custody from torture, abuse or neglect, according to a U.S. State Department human-rights report.

And the Chinese may have a point here if this is trumped up -

''Sino-Australia relations should not pay a price for two such people and two such incidents"

when you put it together with this -

emboldening China's critics at a time when US Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and other Washington conservatives are expressing concern about Beijing's intentions and questioning its growing military spending.

There's no question that China will soon pose a big economic threat to the US. China's out there making friends and cutting deals while Shrub makes more enemies. Trying to slow them down a bit by raising suspicions? :shrug:

[loudsue]

56. Good point! I didn't pick up on it the first time I read it.

But it could very well be just as you say.

Makes ya go "hmmmm". :freak:

[54anickel]

57. Yup, a whole lot of hmmmin' goin' on. China a bit too friendly with

Iran these days? Maybe hoarding into Shrub's "turf" in South America? :shrug:

There was that thread today about China not wanting the UN security council dealing with the Iran issue but rather the IAEA in Vienna. So what's that about? China playin' "My bodyguard"? :shrug:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1692104

Meanwhile Cheney supposedly has the plan all set to nuke Iran in retaliation for ANY terrorist attack in the US - regardless of any ties to Iran.

I think there's a whole lota scary stuff goin' on behind the curtain these days. Keep your eye on the buck - it could give a heads up.

http://usa.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/17450

snip>

The Pentagon, acting under instructions from Vice President Dick Cheney's office, has tasked the United States Strategic Command (STRATCOM) with drawing up a contingency plan to be employed in response to another 9/11-type terrorist attack on the United States. The plan includes a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons. Within Iran there are more than 450 major strategic targets, including numerous suspected nuclear-weapons-program development sites. Many of the targets are hardened or are deep underground and could not be taken out by conventional weapons, hence the nuclear option. As in the case of Iraq, the response is not conditional on Iran actually being involved in the act of terrorism directed against the United States. Several senior Air Force officers involved in the planning are reportedly appalled at the implications of what they are doing – that Iran is being set up for an unprovoked nuclear attack – but no one is prepared to damage his career by posing any objections. <11>



snip>

Furthermore, the geopolitical stakes for the Bush administration were raised dramatically on October 28, 2004, when Iran and China signed a huge oil and gas trade agreement (valued between $70 - $100 billion dollars.) <20> It should also be noted that China currently receives 13% of its oil imports from Iran. In the aftermath of the Iraq invasion, the U.S.-administered Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) nullified previous oil lease contracts from 1997-2002 that France, Russia, China and other nations had established under the Saddam regime. The nullification of these contracts worth a reported $1.1 trillion created political tensions between the U.S and the European Union, Russia and China. The Chinese government may fear the same fate awaits their oil investments in Iran if the U.S. were able to attack and topple the Tehran government. Despite U.S. desires to enforce petrodollar hegemony, the geopolitical risks of an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would surely create a serious crisis between Washington and Beijing.

[loudsue]

58. That was a remarkable article! Thanks 54anickel!

I hadn't seen that one.

:kick:

[54anickel]

21. Gold prices climb as much as $2 (Fed rate and US$)

Market digests Fed rate decision and looks at dollar

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B5C212ED9%2D8FDC%2D46E7%2D9155%2D94B4759F54C8%7D

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed as much as $2 an ounce Wednesday, finding support from a weaker U.S. dollar as the market absorbed the latest Federal Reserve decision to raise interest rates.

September gold was last at $441.30 an ounce, up $1.50 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as high as $442 earlier.

"The gold market seems to have weathered the Fed move without too much damage," said Nell Sloane, an analyst at NSFutures.com, in a note to clients.

snip>

And "with the South African strike still underway and the dollar showing signs of weakening ... it is possible that gold prices will mount a minor short-covering rally," Sloane said.

more...

[54anickel]

22. Don't Trust Us With Social Security

http://www.thestreet.com/_tsccom/funds/jubak/10237284.html

Every time I write about Social Security, I get an email box full of letters from readers who just plain don't like the philosophy behind the government-run retirement insurance program.

They don't like the idea that the government takes their money and, after "investing" it for them, decides how big a check they'll receive every month after they've reached some bureaucratically determined retirement age. It's paternalistic because it assumes the government invests our money better than we would. And it's coercive because the government doesn't give most of us a choice about whether we're going to participate in the system.

All of which is true. The program is bureaucratic, often arbitrary, definitely paternalistic and certainly coercive.

But a recent study from Hewitt Associates, the global human-resources management and consulting company, argues that paternalism and coercion are exactly what most Americans need, at least when it comes to saving for retirement. It also says that the average 401(k) retirement savings plan could use a bit less freedom and a tad more paternalism and coercion.

I know that goes against the philosophical and political grain for many of us. But frankly, the Hewitt Associates study says that many of us aren't exactly in need of more financial freedom and that we aren't ready to take on more financial responsibility.

more...

[Zorra]

42. Judging from the average Joe's inability to use a credit card

responsibly, it appears to me that the privatization of Social Security would be a genuine life threatening disaster for many individuals.

[Tace]

23. MOGAMBO GURU: My Mood Is Dark

Richard Daughty, the angriest guy in economics

I knew it! I knew that Greenspan and the horrid Federal Reserve would again start cranking out more money and credit creation! They can't stop! And sure enough, last week they again started increasing Total Fed Credit, this time by a cool $5.8 billion, which, after cascading through the banking system at the unbelievable fractional-reserve rate of almost 100:1, created a potential $580 billion increase in the money supply. To turn it into money, all that needs to be done is somebody walking into the bank and borrowing it!

Maybe this would explain where the money has been coming from for all the stocks that were bought in the last few weeks, and the increase in Consumer Installment Debt, which ballooned by $14 billion in June. And this does not even count the loans on all those cars that were bought, as the auto dealerships rolled out their highly successful "priced at what employee's pay" sales campaign, which again proved that Americans cannot resist a big sale, no matter how far in debt they already are.

And this sudden expansion of Fed credit could also explain how the Treasury was able to unload another whopping $60 billion of bonds in July. Normally, if a guy wanted to buy $60 billion in new Treasury bonds, he would have to sell something to get the money. This has the ugly property of causing whatever it is you are selling to go down in price ("deflation"). But now, thanks to the idiotic lunacy of having a fiat currency and trusting the Federal Reserve not to abuse the privilege of creating money out of thin air and using it to enrich themselves, the banks play footsie with the government, and they both get everything they want.

And God knows that we need more credit! Kevin Duffy, a principal of Bearing Asset Management, said, "With the stocks of the country’s largest credit engines -- Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Fannie Mae -- shutting down and nearing two-year lows, this credit rocket is sputtering on fumes. Mr. Greenspan, we have a problem."

(more)

http://worldnewstrust.org/modules/AMS/article.php?storyid=930

[ozymandius]

31. Funny, this is kinda how the stock market crashed in '29

and how the market and a grotesquely huge number of jobs could have been saved if the Fed had followed this course after the crash (with some tweaking on the controls).

Maybe this would explain where the money has been coming from for all the stocks that were bought in the last few weeks, and the increase in Consumer Installment Debt, which ballooned by $14 billion in June. And this does not even count the loans on all those cars that were bought, as the auto dealerships rolled out their highly successful "priced at what employee's pay" sales campaign, which again proved that Americans cannot resist a big sale, no matter how far in debt they already are.

The market crashed in part because the amount of stock purchased on margin was huge. When these stocks took a hit (any hit) people lost big time money and sold to cut their losses. Because not only were they out money on the sale, they were out money on the loan with interest.

The incompetent Federal Reserve back then tightened their scrawny little scroogesque fists, preventing any cash infusion that could have saved many businesses and jobs. Only later did an equally incompetent Congress pass legislation to help businesses. But like the cash infusion that bailed out the airlines after 9/11 - this kitty was hoarded by the greedy corporate bigwigs while they sent employees into the streets.

[54anickel]

50. Heh-heh, that "Buy now and SAVE!!" line always throws me for a loop,

even more now that they've got people doing it on credit. :crazy:

[54anickel]

24. Eminent (Domain) Disaster - Ugh more money for lawyers & such

http://www.forbes.com/home/smallbusiness/2005/08/09/entrepreneur-legal-realestate-cx_bn_0809eminentdomain.html

snip>

Controversy over eminent domain heated up in 1981, when the Michigan Supreme Court granted the city of Detroit the power to seize thousands of homes and businesses in an area called Poletown, home to a large Polish population, so thatGeneral Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ) could build a plant there. While the city argued the new plant would create jobs, and therefore qualify as a "public use" project, opponents said it was a giveaway to GM. Last year, the Michigan Supreme court reversed its decision.

Now with the Kelo case, the tide has shifted again. What's an entrepreneur to do?

The good news is the Fifth Amendment establishes that private property shall not be taken for public use "without just compensation." So while most property owners and tenants have slim chance of stopping an eminent domain proceeding in its tracks, say, by lobbying their local jurisdictions, they can make the best of a bad situation by taking pains to ensure they are fully compensated for the damages wrought by the condemning authority.

The key: Know what your assets are worth. At a minimum, this will involve enlisting lawyers, accountants, real estate appraisers and perhaps an engineer or two to help you determine the "highest and best use" for your property.

snip>

For all the vagaries of the eminent domain process, one thing is certain: Expect your lawyer to take a hefty cut--perhaps a third--of the difference between the government's initial (low-ball) offer and what you end up agreeing on. This "contingency fee" is above and beyond the regular fees--and those charged by the appraisers and engineers--that the property owner might recoup.

more...

[54anickel]

25. Monetary Policy and Asset Price Bubbles (wtf? I thought the Fed can't

see a bubble until it pops - now they want a policy?)

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-18.html

In theory at least, an asset price can be separated into a component determined by underlying economic fundamentals and a nonfundamental bubble component that may reflect price speculation or irrational investor euphoria or depression. The expansion of an asset price bubble may lead to a debilitating misallocation of economic resources, and its collapse may cause severe strains on the financial system and destabilize the economy.

Despite these potential problems, the appropriate monetary policy response to an asset price bubble remains unclear and is one of the most contentious issues currently facing central banks. Some have argued that monetary policy should be used to contain or reduce an asset price bubble in order to alleviate its adverse consequences on the economy, while others have argued that such a policy would be both impractical and unproductive given real-world uncertainties about the nature or even existence of bubbles. This Economic Letter examines how policymakers might choose between alternative courses of action when confronted with a possible asset price bubble.

Two monetary policy responses

Two general monetary policy responses to movements in an asset price have been proposed. I refer to the first as "Standard Policy," because there is widespread agreement that it represents the appropriate baseline policy response. The Standard Policy responds to an asset price only insofar as it conveys information to the central bank about the future path of output and inflation—the goal variables of monetary policy. For example, a booming stock market is usually followed by stronger demand and increased inflationary pressures, so tighter policy would be needed to offset these consequences. Even for the Standard Policy response, it would probably be useful to identify—if possible—the separate fundamental and bubble components of the asset price. In particular, the bubble component may exhibit more volatile dynamics and be a pernicious source of macroeconomic risk, so optimal monetary policy may react more to bubbles than to movements in the fundamental component.

The second type of response, the "Bubble Policy," follows the Standard Policy as a base case, but, in certain circumstances, it also takes steps to contain or reduce the asset price bubble. Proponents of a Bubble Policy argue that movements in the bubble component can have serious adverse consequences for macroeconomic performance that monetary policy cannot readily offset after the fact, so it is preferable for central banks to try to eliminate this source of macroeconomic fluctuations directly. Furthermore, because bubbles often seem to display a self-reinforcing behavior, a little prevention early on can avoid later excesses.

For example, under ideal circumstances, a policymaker could recognize an expanding asset price bubble. In this case, the Standard Policy would recommend higher interest rates to offset any economic stimulus generated by the bubble. A Bubble Policy would go further and try to reduce the size of the bubble—probably by setting interest rates even higher; in doing so, the Bubble Policy would likely trade off near-term deviations from the central bank's macroeconomic goals for better overall macroeconomic performance later on. The fundamental difference between the two policies is that the Standard Policy takes the bubble component essentially as given or exogenous, while the Bubble Policy takes into account how the policy instrument can influence the bubble.

Choosing between Standard and Bubble Policies

more...

[54anickel]

27. Update 13: Oil Prices Rise Following Mixed Report

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2005/08/10/ap2177166.html

Oil prices rose Wednesday after the U.S. government delivered a mixed report on the nation's energy supply, with crude oil supplies rising last week but gasoline stocks shrinking.

Traders are nervous about threats to output around the world because of continued strong demand in the United States, China and beyond, with high prices only tempering fuel consumption slightly.

Energy markets have been particularly sensitive to a spate of refinery outages in recent weeks, briefly sending crude futures on Tuesday to record territory above $64 a barrel. The transition of power in Saudi Arabia last week following the death of King Fahd also unnerved markets, as did the security-related closure of the U.S. embassy earlier this week in the world's largest oil-producing nation.

snip>

While oil prices are about 40 percent higher than a year ago, they would need to surpass $90 a barrel to exceed the inflation-adjusted peak set in 1980. :eyes: They certainly keep raising that bar!

more...

[54anickel]

52. Oil surges to record $65 a barrel

http://in.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-08-11T012651Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-212274-1.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices surged nearly two dollars on Wednesday after a U.S. government report rekindled fears that resilient demand from summer drivers and a spate of refinery outages could trigger a gasoline supply crunch.

The gains came against the backdrop of rising tensions in the Middle East after the United States temporarily closed its diplomatic missions in Saudi Arabia this week due to the threat of attacks by militants.

U.S. light sweet crude futures soared $1.93 to hit $65.00 a barrel, the highest on record, before settling at $64.90. London Brent jumped $2.08 to new peak of $64.06 a barrel, before settling at $63.99.

A U.S. government report issued on Wednesday showed crude stockpiles in the world's biggest energy consumer rose last week by 2.8 million barrels, due to hefty imports and slower refining activity.

But the report from the Energy Information Administration also showed a 2.1 million-barrel decline in gasoline stockpiles due to strong demand from summer drivers and slower domestic production -- bringing inventories below last year's level by 7.9 million barrels, or 3.7 percent.

more...

[54anickel]

28. Is Iraq war fueling the GCC's economic boom?

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/9B0F951E-65D2-4C22-80B3-5A477E8659B4.htm

Since the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq, the price of oil has steadily climbed upwards. A barrel of oil today costs twice as much as it did on the eve of combat, back in March 2003.

At the same time all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia - have experienced levels of economic growth not witnessed since the 1970’s.

According to a recent Institute of International Finance report, the GCC's aggregate nominal GDP grew by 17% in 2004 and is likely to grow as impressively this year.

OPEC members Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates pumped 4% more oil in 2004 than in 2003, leading to a huge increase in revenues.

snip>

There is little doubt that the continued occupation of Iraq contributes to the upward trajectory of oil prices, which in turn has helped fuel the GCC's economic boom. Paul Horsnell, a senior energy analyst at Barclays in London, said, "If there had been no invasion, then the current oil price would be lower."

The question is to what extent. The "Iraqi factor" is only one part of the story. The contention that we have reached, or are approaching "peak oil" – the top of a bell-shaped world oil production curve – combined with unprecedented global demand and lack of spare capacity are probably all more significant factors.

more....

[54anickel]

29. 12:09 numbers & yada - then I've gotta run

Dow 10,697.67 +82.00 (+0.77%)
Nasdaq 2,184.02 +9.83 (+0.45%)
S&P 500 1,240.51 +9.13 (+0.74%)
10-yr Bond 4.382% -0.01
30-yr Bond 4.565% -0.01
NYSE Volume 927,486,000
Nasdaq Volume 796,478,000


12:00PM : Market maintaining the bulk of the morning's gains midday as economic optimism underpins a bullish sentiment, extending yesterday's rally and lifting every economic sector... Reassurance that the economy continues to expand, even in the face of higher energy costs as core inflation also remains well contained, has helped investors scour through stocks, looking for bargains and even bidding up recent winners...
Providing some additional comfort has been renewed buying interest (benign inflation) bonds following six straight weeks of declines, which has sent benchmark yields on the 10-year note (+3/32) below 4.40%... To the end, the interest-rate sensitive Utilities sector has turned in the day's best performance... Also benefiting from a decline in borrowing costs but providing more leadership has been Financial, which has gotten an extra boost after Q2 profits at American International Group (AIG 62.89 +1.47) surged 51% year over year... A Morgan Stanley upgrade on American Express (AXP 56.29 +0.70) has helped offset confirmation that Fannie Mae (FNM 53.21 -1.62) will miss delay its Q2 filing and an analyst downgrade on Allstate (ALL 58.30 -0.48)...

Technology has also traded higher, as an analyst upgrade on Qualcomm (QCOM 39.65 +0.88), strength in Dell (DELL 40.30 +0.42) ahead of its Q2 report tomorrow and follow-through buying in chip stocks offset disappointing Q1 (Oct) sales guidance from Cisco Systems (CSCO 18.75 -0.86)... Health Care has shown relative strength after the FDA granted Pfizer (PFE 26.73 +0.22) fast-track status for its cancer drug Sutent...

Even though oil prices ($63.30/bbl +$0.23) remain near session lows, following an unexpected 2.8 mln rise in weekly crude inventories (consensus -1.0 mln), Energy has surged, perhaps getting an additional boost after the majority of Unocal (UCL 65.72 +0.17) shareholders approved Chevron's (CVX 61.60 +0.38) $17.8 bln offer... The EIA also reported a 2.6 mln rise in distillates (consensus +1.75 mln) and a 2.1 mln barrel draw in gasoline inventories (consensus -2.0 mln)... Despite lower than expected Q2 revenues from Walt Disney (DIS 25.58 -0.56), Consumer Discretionary has surged as a rebound in Autos as well as continued upside momentum in Home Depot (HD 42.40 +1.04) and a 90% surge in Q2 profits at Federated Department Stores (FD 75.00 +2.24) have helped Retail surge 1.7%...

Regardless of Goldman Sachs' saying steel shares are overbought, dollar weakness has provided a floor of support for the Materials sector while a weaker greenback, which is also bullish for heavy exporters (i.e. GE, CAT and FDX), has also provided a boost to the Industrials sector...DJTA +1.0, DJUA +1.5, DOT -0.1, Nasdaq 100 +0.5, Russell 2000 +1.1, SOX +1.0, S&P Midcap 400 +0.9, XOI +1.0, NYSE Adv/Dec 2470/635, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1870/953

11:30AM : Indices holding steady at noticeably higher levels as buyers remain in control of the early action... Aside from upbeat comments from the Fed and falling bond yields improving overall sentiment, investors may also be taking note of widespread strength in overseas markets... Within the last 30 minutes, the Dax Index finished up 1.5%, eclipsing yesterday's best one-day advance (+1.3%) since June 1, while the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 Index both closed at new 52-week highs...

Before the bell, the Nikkei 225 closed up 1.7%, the best levels seen in 16 months, while the Hang Seng Index surged 2.0%, closing at new 4-year highs... NYSE Adv/Dec 2392/649, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1805/967

11:00AM : Market retraces earlier highs, as an unexpected rise in weekly crude inventories pushes oil prices ($63.30/bbl +$0.23) to session lows... At the bottom of the hour, the EIA reported a surprise build of 2.8 mln barrels in crude oil supplies (consensus -1.0 mln), a 2.6 mln rise in distillates (consensus +1.75 mln) - the 12th consecutive build - and a 2.1 mln barrel draw in gasoline inventories, which basically matched forecasts of -2.0 mln... XOI +0.8, NYSE Adv/Dec 2370/623, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1784/931

10:30AM : Major indices are off their best levels but continue to take a bullish cue from renewed buying interest in bonds... Even with a lack of noteworthy economic data to set a more distinctive tone to trading in the Treasury market, the absence of a pickup in inflation (which erodes the value of the fixed-income investments), as evidenced in the wording of the FOMC's policy statement, has helped curb recent weakness that early yesterday lifted benchmark yields to their highest levels (4.44%) since April... The benchmark the 10-year note is currently up 6 ticks to yield 4.36%... NYSE Adv/Dec 2311/569, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1735/889

10:00AM : Equities extend their reach to the upside as the bulk of sector leadership remains positive... The interest-rate sensitive Utilities sector has paced the way higher as benchmark yields continue to fall but Financial, also getting a lift from a decline in borrowing costs, has gotten an additional boost from a 51% year-over-year surge in Q2 profits from American International Group (AIG 62.89 +1.47)...

Also helping to offset confirmation that Fannie Mae (FNM 53.21 -1.62) will miss the deadline for filing its Q2 report with the SEC and an analyst downgrade on Allstate (ALL 58.30 -0.48) has been a 1.3% surge in American Express (AXP 56.29 +0.70), after being upgraded at Morgan Stanley to Equal-Weight... Technology has posted a modest gain, as an analyst upgrade on Qualcomm (QCOM 39.65 +0.88), strength in Dell (DELL 40.12 +0.24) ahead of its Q2 report tomorrow and continued momentum in chip stocks offset disappointing Q1 (Oct) sales guidance from Cisco Systems (CSCO 18.75 -0.86)...

Health Care has shown relative strength after the FDA granted Pfizer (PFE 26.73 +0.22) fast-track status for its cancer drug Sutent while Energy has traded higher as oil prices rebound ahead of weekly inventories data (10:30 ET)... The EIA is expected to show a 1.0 mln barrel decline in crude supplies, a 2.0 mln barrel draw in gasoline supplies and a 1.75 mln barrel build in distillates...DJTA +1.0, DJUA +1.4, DOT -0.1, Nasdaq 100 +0.6, Russell 2000 +0.8, SOX +0.8, S&P Midcap 400 +0.8, XOI +1.0, NYSE Adv/Dec 2078/476, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1705/739

[ozymandius]

30. 12:31

Dow 10,684.79 +69.12 (+0.65%)
Nasdaq 2,180.36 +6.17 (+0.28%)
S&P 500 1,239.26 +7.88 (+0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.384% -0.01
NYSE Volume 1,008,549,000
Nasdaq Volume 854,377,000

[ozymandius]

32. coming down, down down

1:18
Dow 10,662.89 +47.22 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,176.47 +2.28 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 1,237.48 +6.10 (+0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 4.376% -0.02
NYSE Volume 1,201,576,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,025,707,000

[ozymandius]

33. blather to boot

1:00PM: Market continues to weaken as further appreciation in oil fuels some nervousness... While a 33% surge in oil prices last year failed to dampen overall sentiment, as the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq finished 2004 up 3.1%, 9.0% and 8.6%, respectively, the fact that oil prices at a new record high of $64.20/bbl (+$1.13) have already matched last year's surge has prompted investors to consolidate recent gains... It may be worth noting, however, that in order for oil prices to reach 1981's inflation-adjusted peak, crude would have to surpass $90/bbl...XOI +1.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 2269/894, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1604/1286

12:30PM: No change to the prevailing trend as the afternoon session gets underway, however, a recent spike in oil prices to fresh session highs has taken some of the momentum out of the market's two-day rally... Meanwhile, blue chips continue to outpace their Nasdaq counterparts, but small cap issues - most of which remain less dependent on energy than larger-cap names - have led the charge higher...Russell 2000 +1.0, NYSE Adv/Dec 2445/701, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1850/1024

[ozymandius]

35. the light is fading

2:02
Dow 10,638.43 +22.76 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,171.13 -3.06 (-0.14%)
S&P 500 1,234.83 +3.45 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 44.02 +0.08 (+0.18%)
NYSE Volume 1,376,782,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,162,464,000

1:30PM: Stocks still in positive territory but languishing near session lows, finding little support from a reversal in bonds... Since the last update, the benchmark 10-year note (-2/32) has slipped into the red, now yielding 4.39%, following a mixed $13 bln 5-year note auction that awarded investors 4.223% - the first time the Treasury Dept. has paid a coupon of more than 4% on five-year debt since May 2002... While direct bidders (small buyers) saw a surprising 2.8%, indirect bidder participation (foreign central banks) checked in at 21.8%, well below an overall average of 38.7%...

Separately, the July Treasury Budget (consensus -$56.7 bln) will be released at 14:00 ET... NYSE Adv/Dec 2307/887, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1679/1254

[54anickel]

51. July's federal deficit falls to $52.8B

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8BCABA1B-B212-4C81-9E83-D7B4692142DB%7D&siteid=google

U.S. revenues up 13.7% so far in 2005; outlays up 6.1%

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. budget deficit shrank to $52.8 billion in July from $69 billion a year ago, the Treasury Department said Wednesday.

The federal deficit was about $5 billion less than the $58 billion estimated by the Congressional Budget Office a week ago. Receipts came in $1 billion more than expected, while outlays were $4 billion less than CBO projected.

Through the first 10 months of the government's fiscal year, the federal deficit totals $302.6 billion, $93.7 billion less than at this time in 2004. Read the full report.

For all of 2005, the CBO expects a deficit of less than $350 billion, with the agency scheduled to make public an updated forecast Monday. The White House forecast a deficit of $333 billion. The deficit totaled a record $412.8 billion in 2004.

snip>

Outlays are up about 6.1% at $2.05 trillion so far this fiscal year.

"Make no mistake, there is no fiscal discipline in Washington these days, nor is there any indication that a revival of fiscal restraint is imminent," said McCarthy.

more...

[ozymandius]

36. People are looking for the exits.

Today's Vaudeville act is starting to stink.

2:21
Dow 10,626.90 +11.23 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,166.44 -7.75 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,232.69 +1.31 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 44.07 +0.13 (+0.30%)
NYSE Volume 1,473,231,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,245,726,000

2:00PM: Nasdaq slips into negative territory for just the second time today, as historically high oil prices above $64/bbl continue to play havoc with today's action... Further deterioration in shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO 18.44 -1.17), which have recently hit their worst levels since early May, coupled with a reversal in semiconductor amid an analyst downgrade on Broadcom (BRCM 42.59 -0.72) and weakness in software (i.e. MSFT, ADBE), continues to weigh on the tech-heavy Composite... SOX -0.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 2289/925, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1588/1343

[ozymandius]

38. creeping ever closer to the waterline

2:55
Dow 10,621.64 +5.97 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,164.44 -9.75 (-0.45%)
S&P 500 1,231.94 +0.56 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.401 +0.07 (+0.16%)
NYSE Volume 1,632,963,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,376,419,000

2:30PM: Early market gains continue to fade as crude oil futures closing at another new record have now left all three major averages trading below the flat line... Meanwhile, investors have recently sifted through the day's only economic report, as the July Treasury budget deficit checked in at $52.8 bln, less than economists' forecasts of -$67.5 bln... However, since the data can be predicted with reasonable accuracy, the report has gone relatively unnoticed, as surging energy prices have all but erased two-day's of upside momentum spurred largely by contained inflation... NYSE Adv/Dec 1989/1250, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1393/1560

[ozymandius]

39. I hate to be negative but the numbers are negative.

3:10
Dow 10,599.66 -16.01 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,159.84 -14.35 (-0.66%)
S&P 500 1,229.39 -1.99 (-0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.408% +0.01
NYSE Volume 1,710,430,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,460,777,000

[ozymandius]

40. dated blather

3:00PM: Indices trade in split fashion as market internals now suggest a mixed tone to trading ( :rofl: )... Advancers on the NYSE, which earlier held a more than 2 to 1 margin over decliners, have seen their advantage narrow to a 19 to 13 edge, while declining issues on the Nasdaq now hold the upper hand against advancing issues with a 16 to 13 lead... The ratio of up to down volumes also paints a similarly mixed picture at the Big Board and the Composite while the latter struggles to find support near the 2163 level amid ongoing consolidation throughout the tech sector... NYSE Adv/Dec 1925/1325, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1385/1608

[norml]

41. Unocal Holders Approve Chevron's $17.8 Bln Purchase

Unocal Holders Approve Chevron's $17.8 Bln Purchase
(Update2) Listen
Aug. 10

(Bloomberg) -- Unocal Corp. shareholders approved Chevron Corp.'s $17.8 billion takeover, clearing the way for the creation of the world's fourth-largest publicly traded oil company.

The shareholders voted 77.2 percent in the acquisition. Investors in Unocal, based in El Segundo, California, will get a combination of cash and Chevron stock that values their shares at $65.43 under terms of a July 19 agreement between the companies.

Chevron, based in San Ramon, California, prevailed over a higher offer from China's Cnooc Ltd. because of concern among Unocal directors that political opposition in Washington would delay or kill the Chinese overture. Chevron, which expects to complete the transaction today, will add 16 percent to its oil and gas reserves and reverse a three-year slump in production.

``This is a key acquisition for Chevron because it expands their asset base in areas of emerging demand,'' Douglas Christopher, who helps manage $8 billion, including Chevron shares, at Crowell Weedon & Co. in Los Angeles, said before the vote. ``They bought these assets at a time of high prices but that's not a negative since energy prices are going to stay high for the remainder of the decade.''


snip


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aK7sW.a8Kpkw&refer=news_index

[ozymandius]

44. Pheh! Anyone who bought this morning will be sick tonight.

3:26
Dow 10,586.36 -29.31 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,156.39 -17.80 (-0.82%)
S&P 500 1,228.25 -3.13 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 44.04 +0.10 (+0.23%)
NYSE Volume 1,808,614,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,567,844,000

[JNelson6563]

45. Your fan base

Hey Marketeers! Seems your fan club is gathering over in GD:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4305599&mesg_id=4305810

Cheers from your biggest fan--

Julie

[ozymandius]

48. Hey! Thanks!

:toast:

I'll be right over.

[Roland99]

46. *ding* *ding* *ding* *ding*

DJIA 10,594.40 -21.30
Nasdaq 2,157.81 -16.38
S&P 500 1,229.13 -2.25
Russell 2000 660.16 -0.32
CBOE Volatility 12.38 -0.02
30 Yr Bond 4.58 +0.01
10 Yr Bond 4.40 +0.01

[ozymandius]

47. closing blather

Close: Stocks opened sharply higher but closed lower as another record high in oil prices ignited widespread consolidation that left virtually every sector underwater... The market had traded to the upside all morning as further analysis of the Fed's optimistic economic outlook - "aggregate spending, despite high energy prices" - helped investors assess the longer-term fundamentals of owning stocks at current levels...

However, yesterday's reassurance about economic expansion amid "relatively low" inflation was eventually trumped by the same energy prices that apparently were not much of a factor since the FOMC's last meeting... Crude oil futures ($64.85/bbl +$1.78), which at session lows following an unexpected 2.8 mln rise in weekly crude inventories (consensus -1.0 mln) had kept sellers on the sidelines, found more aggressive buying interest from traders eyeing the sixth consecutive weekly draw in gasoline inventories, which fell 2.1 mln barrels (consensus -2.0 mln)... Continued refinery problems, short-covering and remarks from Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens, who sees $75/bbl oil by year's end may have also assisted in the commodity's 3.0% surge...

Pacing the way to the downside was the influential Technology sector, dragged lower after Cisco Systems (CSCO 18.26 -1.35) issued a disappointing Q1 (Oct) sales outlook... More consolidation in Semiconductor (i.e. AMAT, BRCM and LLTC) and weakness in Hardware (i.e. IBM, HPQ and NTAP) also overshadowed an analyst upgrade on Qualcomm (QCOM 39.34 +0.57) and confirmation that Yahoo (YHOO 34.21 +0.15) will buy a 35% stake in China's Alibaba.com for $1.0 bln...

[54anickel]

49. Whadda heck? I step out to try and make a buck or two and come back

to this mess!!!

Oh well, put another quarter in and try again. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

53. Heh-heh! I Googled crawford economic to see what's been spewing

from the pig ranch today and ended up with 114 "related" stories almost ALL dealing with Cindy Sheehan!

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&ie=UTF-8&ncl=http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3%3Fbicode%3D060000%26biid%3D2005081190048


Phfft, and the WSJ claims Shrub's controlling the news agenda :rofl:

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB112363487299609366-cojTtsRM9rV40x4MWPXyxNG9Y8s_20060809,00.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top