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sintax Donating Member (891 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 09:31 PM
Original message
(Global) Warming Hits 'Tipping Point'
Warming hits 'tipping point'

Siberia feels the heat It's a frozen peat bog the size of France and Germany combined, contains billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas and, for the first time since the ice age, it is melting

Ian Sample, science correspondent
Thursday August 11, 2005
The Guardian

Researchers who have recently returned from the region found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometres - the size of France and Germany combined - has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age.

The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.

It is a scenario climate scientists have feared since first identifying "tipping points" - delicate thresholds where a slight rise in the Earth's temperature can cause a dramatic change in the environment that itself triggers a far greater increase in global temperatures.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1546824,00.html
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 09:35 PM
Response to Original message
1. With this, what we are doing with the forests, oceans, etc
I wonder how long the human race and other animals have left
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Sabriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 09:35 PM
Response to Original message
2. Look for a peat-powered Hummer coming soon
"So, how many miles-per-turf-square does that thing get, Jim?"
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Digit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 11:14 PM
Response to Reply #2
26. Spew alert!
Stop it...you are killing me!
:rofl:
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sweetheart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 05:54 AM
Response to Reply #2
41. solid fuel cars
Figure that the hummer will run off a steam turbine heated by a
solid fuel (peat & coal) reactor. It would probably hold about 2
cubic meters of peat in its mini-peat stack. But as peat bogs are
more effective carbon sinks than forests, the released Co2 from peat
burning won't be that helpful... that aside. There would need to be
filters to prevent burning bits from coming out the smoke stack.

Fuel stations will have hoppers and dump the fuel in from above the
vehicle, in to the big bin. And when it all goes pear shaped, there
will be more peat around for people to use in their vegetable gardens.

And next, comes the bicycle powered hummer. :-)
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Joebert Donating Member (726 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 09:36 PM
Response to Original message
3. This will be the perfect excuse
See, it isn't our pollution causing problems, it's the Russians! Or, um cows!

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mitchtv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. you are right,but
I suspect Iran or Venezuela will be blamed.
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Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 09:37 PM
Response to Original message
4. I think that happened last summer
I tracked Arctic temperatures pretty well. I think the "tipping point" for Arctic tundra disruption was hit last summer. A huge area of peat bogs and microbes was unfrozen for nearly four months, the first time in probably several thousand years. The area included major parts of Northern Sweden, Northern Finalnd, Northern Russia, Alaska, Nunavut, Baffin Island, and Greenland.

There are still several major ecosystems that are stable enough to compensate somewhat, but they are running out of time. It is probably too late to prevent the coming climate change, but it is NOT too late to get ready for it.

Climate change doesn't have to be a disaster -- merely a catastrophe (in the mathematical sense).

--p!
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:23 PM
Response to Reply #4
13. Say Pigwidgeon - do you visit the National Ice Center?
Edited on Wed Aug-10-05 10:48 PM by hatrack
It's one of my favorite sites this time of year. I've been a regular there for years, and I've never seen Spitzbergen/Svalbard or Baffin Bay or Kane Basin or the area around Franz Josef Land this ice-free ever, let alone this early in August. Very interesting ice maps and graphics at:

Svalbard:


Franz Josef Land:


Baffin Bay:


On edit: Sorry, forgot to add the general link (wasn't expecting graphics!)
http://www.natice.noaa.gov
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wanpete Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 09:39 PM
Response to Original message
5. "The Day After Tomorrow" is a pretty campy movie, but it does
give you goosebumps and scary dreams about global warming.
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wli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 09:44 PM
Response to Original message
6. I'm glad I'm not going to live to see the end of this.
This global warming stuff will kill us all if Cheney, Rummy, & Poppy don't with whatever neo-Holocaust they're plotting.
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oscar111 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 09:52 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. a/c's use more oil, then PEAK OIL will hit faster
global warming increases ac usage of electric, fed by oil generator.

So GWarming will bring Peak oil faster.

ac uses more oil than canadian heat furnaces do, right?
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Minstrel Boy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:06 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. I'm sorry for my children,
including one still in the womb. And I don't know how to prepare them for the strange world they'll inherit.
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sintax Donating Member (891 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:39 PM
Response to Reply #10
20. I can hardly bear it at times
as I look at my two small boys.

We use too much-way too much. all of our gadgetry, our trips, our techno-wars, our 3,000 mile caesar salads- it's all insane.

When you get down to it this "topic" is the only one. There is no political solution in the sense of politics as we are conditioned to believe in.
Consumerism
Coral Reefs
Ice Caps
Glaciers
Fisheries
Asthma
Phytoplankton
Lowland Gorillas
Cell Phones
-It's all connected

Goodbye Jumbo


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Donailin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #10
23. I keep wondering what we as a species do wrong
I have three teens and I fear the worst, even though I carry such great hope for them. Every piece of news, though, makes me lose a little bit of optimism. If it isn't Bush and insane policies, then it could be the bird flu. or a nuclear war. or unaffordable fuel that collapses the world economy. or the threat of irreversible unhealthy atmosphere.

Are we in the end times? I sometimes think we are. I sometimes think in our great effort of industrialization and medical achievements that prolong our lives, we have made life impossible for the next genration to come. Look what we've done in the last 100 years since the discovery of fossil fuel: we've seemingly ruined everything.

so, that begs the question; what are we supposed to be doing right?
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greyl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 12:55 AM
Response to Reply #23
37. It's not "we as a species" at all.
It's one culture.
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 05:36 AM
Response to Reply #37
39. Environmental problems are not confined to Western culture.

Just look at China. And just about any other country that has any industry at all.

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greyl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #39
47. Who said "Western"?
The one culture I speak of isn't defined by nationality. China, Canada, Iran, Korea, Britain, Egypt, Japan, Italy, Argentina, Mexico, Russia etc - all are essentially the same culture.
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Donailin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-12-05 07:37 PM
Response to Reply #37
151. yes, one culture but if you look back through history of man
there are many other cultures that did themselves in through sheer stupidity and/or greed and power. we are the only species that kills for sport, or that expeirences greed.

However we are also the only species that will go out of our way to save those who don't belong to our 'tribe,' or who will fast for spiritual purposes for example. We are capable of doing the most wonderful things and the most horrible, but more often than not, the most horrible.
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pokercat999 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-13-05 08:31 AM
Response to Reply #37
155. I might add "One culture started us down the wrong road, the
rest are catching up FAST!"
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rman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 08:27 AM
Response to Reply #23
44. We fail to see that there are predators amongst us;
predators who pray on their own kind.
They are everywhere, from thugs in the streets to thugs in the WH and beyond. You need only a few of those to mess things up big time.
Maybe, some day, we will learn.
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Donailin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-12-05 07:37 PM
Response to Reply #44
152. as an aside, I love the picture.
so random, so cool. :-)
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blindpig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-12-05 09:29 AM
Response to Reply #23
144. Agriculture
When we stopped being the hunter gatherers that we had been for our entire history as genus Homo(and even beyond) we lost our ancestral connecting to the Earth, its other inhabitants and ourselves.

http://mtsu32.mtsu.edu:11072/Shepard/

The concept of getting back to the Pleistocene is not to be taken entirely literally but is certainly a guideline on what humans are adapted for and how we might regain that integration with life around us without literally returning to the caves.
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sintax Donating Member (891 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-12-05 04:03 PM
Response to Reply #144
146. Very Good Point
there is a good body of evidence to suggest that agriculture and all that came with it-domesticity, mining the soil, settlements etc.- was the beginning of the end.

We can live in a entirely new way based on the old ways and to be integrated with the Pleistocene sensibility would be a good thing.

Ancient Futures
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reprobate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-13-05 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #146
158. That would work but with a massively reduced population.
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sintax Donating Member (891 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-13-05 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #158
159. Agreed-Population reduction is necessary and inevitable
can it be done in only a moderately painful way? I'm not too optimistic as that would be an aberration, if not a total U-turn, from our current modes of behavior and attitudes.

There is already soo much pain being felt throughout Africa as the West plunders the agricultural lands and destroys the animal habitat for the minerals beneath the soil.

peace
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Donailin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-12-05 07:40 PM
Response to Reply #144
153. what a great link, thank you!
I think I know have figured out what to study when the kids are grown -- I ponder stuff like this all the time, "what are we supposed to be doing?" Because I just feel like whatever it is, we aren't doing it.
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:17 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. I wonder if we are already past the point of no return and it's
just self-perpetuating now. Not that the entire world shouldn't keep
trying to control this
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wli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:26 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. 6C = Permian-Triassic Extinction, 10C = end of all life on earth
If global warming goes haywire, there are real and serious consequences, ones that threaten to wipe out the human race entirely.
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Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:30 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. I think that's kinda the point of the OP --
the "tipping point" meaning "point of no return," and "it's all downhill from here," and "there's no stopping it" ...

and so forth.
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #16
81. yes, and unless we try for a miracle, like all the big polluting nations
like us, China, Russia, etc., really get on the ball and go for stringent measures, we are just screwed. And probably screwed even if everyone did implement stringent measures
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gristy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-13-05 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #16
156. The "tipping point" that I am familiar with refers to the multiple points
of relative stability of the earth's climate. We are about to tip from the climate that we know of to either a new ice age (due to the shutdown of the ocean circulation, of which the gulf stream is just one part) or run-away global warming (due to releases of CO2 from the burning of oil, giving way to massive releases of methane from melting permafrost).
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Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #6
15. I dunno how old you are, but unless you're either
REALLY old (90s or more?) or quite ill with a shortened life expectancy, you're probably going to live to see quite enough of "the end of this."

Sorry to be so glum, but this is going to wind out pretty quickly, all in all -- is my feeling. Totally unscientific, of course.
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phusion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:35 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. You're right!
Where's my bourbon?

:toast:
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #17
30. Screw the alcohol, I need something more mind-expanding.
I mean, if the world is gonna end, might as well be out of my body when it happens...

(Seriously, I've always said that if a nuclear missile is headed my way, I'm going to be on so many psychedelics at Ground Zero I won't even notice when I die. Fuck cancer, I'd rather go in a flash.)

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Donailin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #15
24. I sadly think you may be right.
We are in unchartered territory. No one wants to give up the things we have gotten so used to. Cars, planes, electricity, refrigeration, gas stoves, remote controls, instant information.

But in all of those things, which one of them is conducive to community?

I think the industrial revolution brought about a disconnect from one another. maybe nature wants to correct this. I dunno. I'm extremely intuitive and I am experiencing a fearfullness that I can't shake off.
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Uncle Joe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #24
62. We have taken ourselves out of the Garden of Eden,
Edited on Thu Aug-11-05 02:42 PM by Uncle Joe
by continuously separating ourselves from nature. I view the Earth as a self sustaining spaceship with all humanity on board. We even have our own force shield (aka electromagnetic shield) which protects all life from our sun's deadly radiation. However while the Earth may be self sustaining, it has limits and humanity has treated it as the greedy farmer that killed the goose that lay the golden eggs. We absolutely must change our way of thinking regarding our home or we will go the way of the dinosaur.
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wli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 11:11 PM
Response to Reply #15
25. shortened life expectancy
Not quite a terminal illness, but I probably haven't got much more than 15 years left (if that).
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eowyn_of_rohan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 11:34 PM
Response to Reply #15
139. Havent we boomers always felt this would happen?
I think it has been one of the driving forces of our generation--that is, the "end", one way or another...
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 01:55 PM
Response to Reply #6
59. How old are you? If you are under 50, you might
hell, you might if you are under 60 if Global Warming continues to "surprise" scientists!
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Boomer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:01 PM
Response to Original message
9. Nominated
People can't hear this too often.
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:21 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. yeah kick
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bloom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:35 PM
Response to Original message
18. Fairbanks, Alaska was 86 degrees today.
Edited on Wed Aug-10-05 10:40 PM by bloom
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:44 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. and when the glaciers melt they don't reflect the sunlight back
and it just keeps getting warmer and warmer and warmer
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Mr_Spock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:36 PM
Response to Original message
19. Fascinating. Only 11,000 years since last ice age?
We are in for a problem at some point - things happen here from time to time - could be in our lifetimes - who knows? We are certainly doing our damdest to accelerate the process. Well, we shit-for-brains in the WH we may get to experience some of this excitment soon enough.
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:45 PM
Response to Original message
22. This is VERY VERY IMPORTANT - that methane gets into the atmosphere
and the warming will accelerate. We're already teetering on the brink of a major shift of oceanic currents - without the Gulf Stream and other major redistributing currents, climate will become far more extreme. It's happened before and oceanographers say wer're close to it now.
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Gregorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 11:25 PM
Response to Original message
27. So all of those years of commuting on my bicycle were for nothing?
Edited on Wed Aug-10-05 11:27 PM by Gregorian
Maybe I saved us a couple of days worth of global warming. And to think I've been agonizing over this since 1975. Shit, I could have just ignored everything, had kids, traveled, and dined out more often if I'd known the rest of the world didn't care.

My epitaph will be- I tried.


Oh PS- I went on my daily bike ride today, only this time I had to stop and turn back because someone had cut the forest down. The trees were all on the ground. So sad. And the guy is a millionaire already. Asshole. :( Fuck greedy people.
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anotherdrew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. well Gregorian, your post about sums it all up nicely
What a disaster
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Gregorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #28
31. And that was only half my day.
The rest was so bad, I literally erased my post. You don't want to know. Tomorrow had better be better.
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Psephos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #27
51. Think not what you can do for your atmosphere...
but what you can do for your cardiovascular system.

Your bike rides were not wasted.

Peace.
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sintax Donating Member (891 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #27
88. Keep trying- there are many with your spirit
"I have never needed the hope of victory to spur me on to fight!"

Peace
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lovuian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 11:43 PM
Response to Original message
29. Oh Now Methane is nasty stuff!!! Maybe we could use it in our
cars!!!
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Gregorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 11:53 PM
Response to Reply #29
32. Good one.
Somehow I just knew it would end up this way.

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markam Donating Member (146 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 11:59 PM
Response to Reply #29
33. No way to collect it
It will just seep into the atmosphere.

I have become so depressed about the future of the world. I dread thinking about what conditions my 3 and 5 year old will have to live in.
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Theduckno2 Donating Member (905 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 12:00 AM
Response to Original message
34. With the melting of Artic ice.......
Ships will be able to navigate the Northwest Passage, sailing ships that is. People need to read this! Kick!
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Zorra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 12:24 AM
Response to Original message
35. Bu*h policy: "social, economic and environmental devastation worldwide"
Either we somehow remove the little weasel from power or we die.
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Mairead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 08:37 AM
Response to Reply #35
45. Not only him, Zorra, but the whole putrid mess that spawned him
We have to start seeing 'the vile maxim' as the pathology it is, get together, and get these people out of power and into treatment. It's our only hope.
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alfredo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 12:49 AM
Response to Original message
36. What will it be like in 10 years. We we be just mucking along
as now, or will we be in crisis, scrambling just to survive?


You know we are the last surviving member of the Homo Genus. We are it for the Homo line. the others failed for one reason or another. Sapiens means wise or clever. I'd rather we be more wise than clever. Our cleverness is what is killing us.

Splitting the atom was pretty clever, but making bombs using the discovery was not wise.
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Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 05:13 AM
Response to Original message
38. We will survive. We survived before.
Homo Sapiens emerged during an interstadial period just like this one. We then survived another, probably more intense, threat to our survival around 75 kYA when the Toba supervolcano erupted, plunging the world into a ten-year-long night and a hundred-year winter.

We'll survive this one, too.

My concern isn't whether or not we'll survive, but how traumatic the change will be. If we start planning for it now, it need not be all that devastating. But we're not planning at all, and our only planning against world hunger has been the development of "Roundup-Ready" genetically modified plants.

Global warming will stop. First of all, we've blown through most of the organic carbon that can be used efficiently as fuel; second is the "Climate Flip-Flop" effect, where overheating of the climate forces a state-change from a warm to a cold period. (The Day After Tomorrow scenario, stretched over a few decades, without the drama.) Warming spikes before Heinrich climate events typically last less than a few decades, and then temperature and greenhouse gas levels fall pretty quickly, as far as we are able to determine.

Of course, climate change could be the ultimate LIHOP scenario. The dangers were known as far back as the 1950s; and if there is no planning for food production, billions of people will starve to death. A world with a quarter or a half a billion people will be much easier to provide for than a world with seven or ten or twelve billion.

I'm not a big believer in religion, but John of Patmos got at least one set of details right: The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse; namely, War, Famine, Pestilence, and Death.

But the horsemen and their horses were symbols, metaphors, story characters. We are living and we are real. We can be archers to their riders, and stop the Horsemen's charge. So nock your arrows, and steady your aim.

--p!
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Boomer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #38
49. "We" the species isn't much comfort
Edited on Thu Aug-11-05 11:42 AM by Boomer
Homo sapiens may survive as a species, but millions and millions of individuals will not survive this climate upheaval.

At certain critical times in the past only small groups of humans (perhaps as few as 10-20) managed to navigate global disasters. That may induce a certain level of conceptual optimism into a Doomsday scenario, but it's a bleak kind of comfort in the face of a catatostrophic number of dead.

Yay for those "lucky" 20 who get to scrabble for scraps amidst the rubble of civilization, yay for the future throngs of humanity that will repopulate the world in some far distant millenia, but the rest of us living in the here-and-now are royally screwed.

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Ladyhawk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 03:18 PM
Response to Reply #49
69. Actually, I would be happy just to know that any life survives on earth.
I'm not even talking about human life. Just to know that something will continue for awhile after I'm gone gives me a little bit of comfort.
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #69
71. i'm a bit more ambitious than that
any life could be single-cells, which can survive anything, they even find 'em in nuclear power plants

i would like to think that vertebrate life might survive, not much chance of that in a venus-style atmosphere tho
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Ladyhawk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #71
73. I was thinking vertebrate life / plants, too.
Edited on Thu Aug-11-05 03:52 PM by Ladyhawk
Single cell life would evolve, eventually, but probably into creatures we wouldn't recognize. I would hope that something recognizable would live.

Waking up to these threads has been very...upsetting for me. I'm sure others are upset, too.
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #73
80. i'm upset myself
however the purpose of such predictions is not to get upset

if it galvanizes other scientists to prove the doom and gloom wrong and invent something to fix this, it has served its purpose

if truly there is nothing to be done, it galvanizes us to love and appreciate what we have while we still can

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Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 04:03 PM
Response to Reply #69
75. Oh, be comforted then: cockroaches are a sure bet to survive n/t
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #38
52. Possibly - however, we (as a species) barely got past Mt. Toba's eruption
This was about 65,000 years back. Toba, an Indonesian volcano, blew in what was likely the biggest eruption since Homo sapiens sapiens diverged.

Something on the order of hundreds of km2 of ejecta entered the stratosphere, rapidly chilling the climate for some years, and reducing total global human population to somewhere between 10,000 and 50,000 individuals.

They've backed this up with genetic research that shows the lines of genetic diversity converging at that particular bottleneck way back when, though sadly I don't have any links right to hand.

In other words, we've been lucky in the past. There's no guarantee that anyone's luck will continue to hold.
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Boomer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 05:04 PM
Response to Reply #52
85. And we've reduced our chances of survival
In the not-too-distant-past (geologically speaking), every individual had a strong complement of survival skills. Yet even with those skills, only small groups were fortunate to survive the disaster. There's a limit to what you can do when the sun simply doesn't provide enough light for plants to grow.

Now, after the technological revolution, there may be billions of people on the planet, but large numbers of them are dependent on a complex system of production and distribution for their most basic needs. The industrialized nations are the most vulnerable, because so few people have retained basic survival skills and know how to live a sustainable existence.

Any major disruptive event that dismantles the fragile tech network will leave most of us starving to death. We simply don't know how to grow food, preserve extra yields, store seeds, butcher animals, make cloth or soap.

Native groups still living off the land in isolated areas will probably be the best hope for survival of the species.
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #85
87. Yes, people forget the Technological Ratchet
Edited on Thu Aug-11-05 05:08 PM by hatrack
It's a one-way ratchet, and it only goes up. That is, it keeps going up until you hit the top of the post. Then it falls off.
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Phoebe Loosinhouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 06:17 PM
Response to Reply #85
93. You've tapped into one of my favorite theories
Its the day after some sort of holocaust and upheaval and a small band of survivors is huddled together. A self-appointed leader arises to assess the situation. He asks for people to come forward and share their skills and knowledge. Their group consists of : a telemarketer, an IT guy, a retail sales clerk,a hairdresser, a stock broker, a real estate salesperson, a car salesman, a construction worker, a nurse, a middle manager of an insurance company. I think that is a fairly accurate representation of what I see in our current employment markets. Almost all of the skills are worth zilch except for the construction guy and the nurse. We can't grow, we can't build, we are really quite worthless unless you live in a society that has evolved to value worthlessness.

But, then that overspecialized society faces Nature and her primitive demands of survival. End of story.
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Boomer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 07:26 PM
Response to Reply #93
95. Coding in C# is a big plus, too
I put myself at the top of the useless heap, so I do know whereof I speak. :eyes: Without a PC and the internet, I'm pretty much a dead loss.

My partner and I, ever mindful of the disaster looming in the not-so-distant future, started organic gardening in our backyard a few years ago. Even though she is incredibly handy, and was already a gardener, we're still fighting a steep learning curve in growing edible foods, much less enough of them to do more than add a little variety to our diets.

And we have yet to delve seriously into food preservation and storage. We tried canning last year, but learning from a book just wasn't that effective and we threw out the food we canned for fear of poisoning ourselves.

What is truly scary is that we are the neighborhood experts. And we are often aghast at the local supermarket when some young thang at the checkout counter stares in puzzlement at parsnips, kale or turnips. Even without comment we can tell that they haven't a CLUE what they are, yet these are probably the most nutritious, hardy, cold-resistant food plants that you could ask for.

Who knows how to make soap anymore? Or candles? How to weave?

My partner's grandparents were Appalachian hillfolk who lived on 15 acres and were practically self-sustaining. They had fruit trees, berry patches, vegetable garden, a cow or two, chickens. Within three generations ALL that knowledge of how to live on the land has been completely erased.

Forget the Kyoto Treaty. We all need to be taking Survival Courses and building yurts.
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #93
97. we don't have any skillz for this
Edited on Thu Aug-11-05 08:23 PM by pitohui
you know i can raise chicken and solar cook just fine, thank ya, ma'am, and maybe brew up some nice pig swell of a nasty dandelion wine too but

what the four-letter-word-starting-w-eff is that gonna do when the atmosphere is largely methane

no skill is gonna do that

all kinda new age dweebs, me included, know how to make effing soap, homemade soap is a drug on the market, do you
really think making soap is gonna make a difference when you're 20 feet underwater

none of these skillz are lost, but the future ain't 1890 & playing at 1890 is fun but ain't gonna solve it
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 01:48 PM
Response to Reply #38
58. Doubtful
oxygen will decrease to the point where all mammals will be at risk for extinction.
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Logansquare Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #38
63. By "we" I presume you mean developed countries
because they sure as hell aren't going to survive in say, Bangladesh, which has one of the lowest elevations of any land mass in the world, and where flooding has already killed thousands. The poor will die for our consumer goods and energy consumption, but yes, "we" will survive.
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Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #63
76. I think you're wrong -- not about Bangladesh perhaps but
I thing the peoples who are closest to the land, who remember "the old ways" stand the best chance of survival, aside from issues of geology, of course.
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Terran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #76
84. Exactly--America will surely perish
because it relies on energy and technology too much. Western civ as a whole, along with much of Asia. But there are places where people still know how to get along in 17th century conditions--or maybe I should set that further back? Bronze age conditions?
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #38
67. Between global warming and the oil crisis (peak oil), I will
be surprised if there are 20% of us left in about 20-30 years. One billion people may be too much.
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truthisfreedom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 05:41 AM
Response to Original message
40. it's time for American ingenuity to tap the peat bogs! if there really is
millions of tons of methane stored in the peat bogs, we should find a way to vacuum it up.

and no, i won't accept "can't" as an answer. 8^)
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 08:14 AM
Response to Original message
42. Kicking and nominating
nt
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Jose Diablo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 08:18 AM
Response to Original message
43. It's gonna get hotter 'n hell if that methane gets in the air n/t
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anotherdrew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:33 AM
Response to Original message
46. methane 60 times worse than CO2, but...
I think the OP says 20 times worse, but I've also seen 60, so I'm not sure but clearly worse. At least it only stays in the atmosphere for 10 years or so, but this could help destabilize the methane hydrates underwater too, as if they weren't already at increasing risk...

This needs to be heavily monitored by earth observing satellites that should be able to monitor this from orbit. It may be that we have no such satellites currently, I think Gore wanted to build such a network of satellites, so you can bet the bushbabies canceled that. Maybe the European space agency has some resources for this.

http://www.hydrogen.co.uk/h2_now/journal/articles/3_Methane.htm
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Jose Diablo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 11:57 AM
Response to Reply #46
50. If the bottom of the oceans
heat-up even a little bit, those hydrate deposits will melt releasing even larger quanities of methane.

I was reading about methane hydrate deposits off the coast of Norway and how there are huge depressions or pits in the ocean bed where in the past methane hydrates had erupted and released large quanities of methane that bubbled to the surface and entered the atmosphere. There was some speculation that this is what triggered the end of the last ice age.

I wonder how the hydrate deposits fit into the overall long term climatic changes over the ages. Maybe somehow the formation and subsequent evaporation of these deposits somehow cause and end periods of cooling and heating of the climate.

Plus of course we, as humans, may have inadvertantly accelerated the natural cyclic changes by releasing CO2 that had been sequestered in oil deposits and normally would NEVER get back into the atmosphere, thus starting a trend to heating much earlier and with deeper variations than ever been experienced before.
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greyl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 11:35 AM
Response to Original message
48. Daniel Quinn and Jared Diamond
I urge anyone who is struggling to find a resolution to this issue to read Quinn's Ishmael, The Story of B, and Beyond Civilization" and Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel.

"When a farmer clears a field and puts it to the plow, he doesn't think of himself as taking that field away from all the wildlife that makes its home there. He isn't stealing it, he's putting it to the use God intended from the beginning. Before being cultivated, this land was merely going to waste.
-Beyond Civilization


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Pooka Fey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 01:29 PM
Response to Original message
53. If humanity planted thousands of trees, would it change the future? nt
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 01:35 PM
Response to Reply #53
55. no
the trees planted are not the same as the trees killed

the hardwood forests of the world are coming to an end, they replace themselves too slowly

they are being replaced by fast-growing trees like pine, unfortunately, pine desert is not habitat for any but a small % of species, diversity of species hence resiliency of eco-systems coming to a close

in any case many forests are being killed and replaced by soybean

looks like the future is soylent green, tofu, and farmed catfish nuggets to me :-(

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Pooka Fey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 01:44 PM
Response to Reply #55
56. I will plant trees anyway.
Edited on Thu Aug-11-05 01:59 PM by Pooka Fey
I agree with you that we are too far gone now to reverse the situation. But we may be able to buy some time. If new trees grow too slowly to help us, perhaps they will help any animals or birds that survive after our deaths. If someone cuts down 10 trees for every one that I plant - then there still be one living tree on earth. If 99 people join me in planting a tree....then we will at the very least AFFECT the future - and that means we will change it.

http://www.unesco.org/education/tlsf/theme_a/mod02/www.worldgame.org/wwwproject/what11.shtml
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 02:03 PM
Response to Reply #56
60. i do too
actually i have planted several in past couple yrs tho i have limited property

plant native trees that support multiple species, such as mulberry, yaupon, hackberry

avoid non-natives that kill competitors such as chinese tallow



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Pooka Fey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 02:04 PM
Response to Reply #60
61. Native species of trees - an EXCELLENT point !
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 02:55 PM
Response to Reply #60
66. That's what I am doing, natives like redbud, oak, linden
My attitude is you can't put in too many trees. I also am putting in native shrubs
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #66
70. oh yes definitely put in the shrubs
our understory is in worse trouble than our trees in many areas where they can't be protected from deer over-population
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G_j Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 01:35 PM
Response to Original message
54. Faced With This Crisis, Going, Going, Gone?
Edited on Thu Aug-11-05 01:36 PM by G_j
http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/news/greenhouse-effect-is-melting-g

Going, Going, Gone?
Greenhouse Effect is Melting Greenland
July 21, 2005

Greenland — In a stunning discovery aboard the Greenpeace ship Arctic Sunrise yesterday, scientists found new evidence that Greenland’s glaciers are melting at an unprecedented rate. Global warming is no longer on the horizon, it has arrived at our doorstep, and if you live in a coastal city, that’s not just a figure of speech.

That’s because Greenland’s massive ice sheet locks up more than six percent of the world’s fresh water supply, and it is melting much faster than expected. If Greenland were to melt fully, it would cause sea levels around the globe to rise by nearly 20 feet. Even measurements of four to five feet of sea level rise could mean that cities like New York, Miami and Boston will experience flooding in low lying areas and increased threat of storm surge from hurricanes. More than 70 percent of the world's population lives on flat coastal plains, and 11 of the world's 15 largest cities are on the coast or bays and estuaries.

The Arctic Sunrise arrived in Greenland at the end of June, with scientists from around the world onboard. The ship and its crew have been documenting and measuring the impacts of global warming. Yesterday’s’ scientific discovery adds further proof that Greenland’s glaciers are melting far more rapidly than previously believed. All current scientific forecasts for global warming had assumed slower rates of melting from the Greenland ice sheet. This new evidence reveals that the threat of global warming is much greater and more urgent than previously believed.

In addition to the increased speed of the glacier, scientists from the University of Maine found that the Kangerdlussuaq glacier has receded more than three miles since 2001. Measurements from glaciers across Greenland are providing startling new evidence of thinning, causing the glaciers to speed up and decrease in overall mass, intensifying the flow of ice into the ocean.

Kangerdlussuaq glacier alone contains enough ice to fill the Great Lakes four times if it melts completely.

“The alarm is now deafening. We can’t stand back and watch our future go under, literally,” said Melanie Duchin, Greenpeace campaigner onboard the Arctic Sunrise. “We must stop generating global warming pollution."

Take Action
Sign our Project Thin Ice Pledge Today
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=56&ItemID=8377

Faced With This Crisis

by George . Monbiot
July 26, 2005

One day we will look back on the effort to deny the effects of climate change as we now look back on the work of Trofim Lysenko.

Lysenko was a Soviet agronomist who insisted that the entire canon of genetics was wrong. There was no limit to an organism's ability to adapt to changing environments. If cultivated correctly, crops could do anything the Soviet leadership wanted them to do. Wheat, for example, if grown in the right conditions, could be made to produce rye.

Because he was able to mobilise enthusiasm among the peasants for collectivisation, and could present Stalin with a Soviet scientific programme, Lysenko's hogwash became state policy. He was made director of the Institute of Genetics and president of the Lenin Academy of Agricultural Sciences. He used his position to outlaw conventional genetics, strip its practititioners of their positions and have some of them arrested and even killed. Lysenkoism, which governed state science from the late 1930s until the early 1960s, helped to wreck Soviet agriculture.

No one is yet being sent to the Guantanamo gulag for producing the wrong results. But the denial of climate science in the United States bears some of the marks of Lysenkoism. It is, for example, state-sponsored. Last month, the New York Times revealed that Philip Cooney, a lawyer with no scientific training, had been imported into the White House from the American Petroleum Institute, to control the presentation of climate science.(1) He edited scientific reports, striking out evidence that glaciers were retreating and inserting phrases suggesting that there was serious scientific doubt about climate change.(2) Working with the Exxon-sponsored PR man Myron Ebell, he lobbied successfully for the sacking of the head of the Environmental Protection Agency, who had refused to accept the official line.(3)
..more..

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Julius Civitatus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 01:47 PM
Response to Original message
57. We are so f*cked!
But according to Bush, more research is necessary.

Right.
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Pooka Fey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 02:38 PM
Response to Original message
64. Planting trees won't fix this. Maybe it can buy us some time.
Edited on Thu Aug-11-05 02:39 PM by Pooka Fey
PICTURE THIS: Thousands line a major boulevard in teams of four to ten people, removing concrete from neatly trimmed, square holes cut in the sidewalk. They dig, measure, determine the sun's direction to enable them to orient the tree's limbs, and mix soil amendments and nutrients into the native dirt.

When the preparation is done, they assemble around a waiting tree. They move it toward a hole, and while some support its branches, others quickly and gently remove the pot from the tree's rootball. All help lower the tree into its new home, steadying it while the hole is filled. The soil is packed in, and stakes are pounded into position on either side. The people use special rubber ties to secure the tree between the stakes—loose enough to allow the tree to sway in the wind and build its own trunk strength, but tight enough to provide protection from a host of urban stresses it will encounter in its first, most vulnerable years....Stepping back, one can see the boulevard in the midst of a profound transformation.

http://www.treelink.org/books/simpleact/chapter1.htm

From Sustainable Portland Website:
Element Five: Tree Planting• Promote extensive Oregon reforestation efforts by CO2 producing organizations. The target is 75,000 acres of new trees.• Promote extensive urban area tree planting and expanded maintenance of existing trees.

http://64.233.187.104/search?q=cache:gdqE_Y1BGA8J:www.sustainableportland.org/GW%2520Reduction%2520Strategy.pdf+Tree+planting+projects+combat+global+warming&hl=en


Global ReLeaf from American Forests:
http://www.americanforests.org/global_releaf/

Future Forests:
http://www.futureforests.com/

Armenia tree Project / Peace Corps
http://www.armeniatree.org/whoweare/who.htm

Millenium Forest Project in Morocco
http://www.fawco.org/global_concerns/environment/millenium_forest.html
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 02:41 PM
Response to Original message
65. 'Mr. President, we cannot allow a melting peat bog gap!"
Now, I'm not saying we won't get our hair mussed . . . :evilgrin:
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Aesclepius Donating Member (3 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 05:52 PM
Response to Reply #65
90. Fantastic post! nm
nm
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anotherdrew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-12-05 05:22 PM
Response to Reply #65
149. that's right... a few nukes would take out those peat bogs...
Learn from our sacred movie traditions... any big problem can be solved by using a nukyaler warhead in the right way...
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Javaman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 03:05 PM
Response to Original message
68. We are soooooooooo fucked...
Even if the world came to it's senses a year ago, it would take years for everything to go into effect to stop the massive amounts of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere.

For an aircraft carrier to turn around, it takes 5 miles to a speed by which it can turn safely.

We are that aircraft carrier, and we ain't slowing down.

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1956 Donating Member (314 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #68
72. They tried to warn us
Years and years ago... Most of us are the worst kind of procrastinators!! I guess we never really believed it would happen ...to us! But anyway...seems to me I saw something on the science channel or discovery or something that set up the scenario that the warming of the seas actually might oddly bring on an ice age. I don't quite understand how that works. Are there some science types that could explain it to me?
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Ladyhawk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 03:54 PM
Response to Reply #72
74. Could the two events somehow cancel each other out?
Edited on Thu Aug-11-05 03:54 PM by Ladyhawk
Climates would still change, but perhaps something could live through it.

On edit: I am obviously not a scientist. Sorry if this is a stupid question.
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Javaman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 04:25 PM
Response to Reply #74
77. Sadly no, basically it works this way...
There is a warm current that runs in a circular pattern in the atlantic. It take the warm waters from the mid atlantic and runs it up north. Past Greenland, Iceland and England. This is why England which is fairly far north is able to enjoy a basically temperate climate.

1)we dump billions of tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

2)things heat up, because the suns rays become trapped between the earth and this new thick layer of gas.

3)Ice packs in the north and south poles melt.

4)the melting Arctic ice pack dumps billions of gallons of cold icy water into the north atlantic.

5) that once warm current coming from the mid atlantic gets diluted with cold water.

What happens now is something rather interesting in weather terms.

What that warm current from the mid atlantic also did was keep the various cold fronts at bay. However, when you no longer have a warm current in place to keep back those cold fronts, the cold fronts then move farther south.

So the temperate climate that England had been enjoying suddenly disappears and they start experiencing the type of climate more inclined for their latitude. Cold weather.

Now this is just an example for the north atlantic, imagine if you will this happening all over the world. In all the various northern latitudes and southern latitudes that depend on the warm currents for their temperate climates.

As the polar fronts both on the north and south poles move farther south or north, respectively, so will the ice caps.

And then we have an ice age.

That's the basic basic explanation.
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 05:56 PM
Response to Reply #77
92. The main "function"
of the Gulf Stream in global climate is to bring warm water into the Arctic Ocean. Even though the water there seems cold and is frozen a good part of the year, the ocean still acts as a heat reservoir and warms the adjacent land surfaces during the winter, just like the Pacific at lower latitudes keeps the coast cooler in summer and warmer in winter than the inland areas.

If the supply of warm water is shut off to the Arctic Ocean, the water there will get colder and colder and eventually lose its ability to warm surrounding coastal areas.

Northern Europe will have a climate a lot more like Alaska.

Climate research suggests that climate change may be a very rapid process, and it may take only a few years (5-10) once the Gulf Stream shuts down to create a full-fledged ice age.

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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 04:34 PM
Response to Reply #74
78. ladyhawk something will likely live thru it
the other poster's explanation was a good one and explains current theory in clear simple terms, however, i do not think it certain that we will have another ice age

if the result is runaway green house effect w. more methane in the atmosphere and much higher temperatures and mostly shallow oceans in areas where we have land now, something will live thru it, the dinosaurs lived in such a world at many times

now if the entire globe ends up glaciated, all bets are off, of course, nothing survives that

i was thinking of this when watching March of the Penguins

at some earlier age, antarctica was warm, wet, had life

now there is no vertebrate life except the emperor penguin, which gets its food from the ocean & is dependent on survival of the ocean

i think we have a chance if global warming really stays warm, even if it's very warm

a completely or mostly glaciated world, all bets are off, but i truly don't see this happening

keep yr fingers crossed

it ain't over till it's over
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sintax Donating Member (891 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 04:59 PM
Response to Reply #78
83. I understand there is approximately a 40 year gestation period
with the global greenhouse gasses so even if we stopped egregious amounts of pollution today their is this lag time such that the gasses would still be building up. is this true? If so are we only seeing the beginning? does this mean we will be experiencing the effects of todays pollution in 40 years?

I know we are blowing way more CO2 into atmosphere now than in the 50s 60s etc.

Vital Signs Fact of the Week

Planes Utilize Most Fuel During Takeoff

The world's airlines use some 205 million tons of aviation fuel (kerosene) each year, producing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ozone, sulfur dioxide, and methane. Jet fuel is the second-largest expense to airlines after labor and can amount to 20 percent of companies' operating expenses.
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 05:05 PM
Response to Reply #83
86. yes that's what they say
it isn't the CO2 that's the real problem

methane is worse by an order of magnitude or more

i really don't know what can be done or if anything can be done

i will hope that more innovative minds than mine are working on the project

little ideas, like giving $$$ to corporate recycling to pretend to recycle, is not gonna cut it

we need paradigm change

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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 04:34 PM
Response to Reply #72
79. did you see the "Day after Tomorrow"
where the warming causes the gulf stream to slow down or stop, then northern Europe gets very cold,then it starts building on itself, etc. That was a "too quick" event but things like that could happen over a longer period of time. People don't yet really understand ocean currents all that well and how the cold water flows and warm water flows are really operating. I would like to hear from the science types also.
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 05:43 PM
Response to Reply #79
89. Climate research suggests
that the "jump" could take place in as short as 5-10 years.
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Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #68
82. Pretty good analogy
I sense it's actually MUCH worse than that, but it still gets the idea across.
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BoneDaddy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 05:53 PM
Response to Original message
91. Get Ready
Ok...interesting points ...all of them.

So the Global Warming phenomenon is most likely unstoppable at this point. Let us not distress but prepare.

Many native and primal cultures point to this point in many of their prophecies. Similar to Judeo-Christian beliefs they point to a end of an "age". This death of an old age and beginning of a "new age" will come with much suffering. But only if we are unprepared.

Interestly, the primal prophecies do not signal the death of the planet or the entire death of homosapiens but rather a great upheaveal that will disrupt our lives greatly but will not kill us.

Read a great book by Sun Bear who prophecized the upcoming struggle. It is called Dark dawn...Bright Day. It gives practical sound advise on how to prepare and survive.

PS. Buy some property inland. It might be some great beach front at some point.
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Delphinus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 06:19 PM
Response to Reply #91
94. Hi BoneDaddy.
Read that book by Sun Bear many years ago. It had some good information - probably should check it out again. Thanks for the reminder and a belated Welcome. :hi:
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Inland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 07:40 PM
Response to Original message
96. It's already five minutes past midnight. nt
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recidivist Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 09:06 PM
Response to Original message
98. So are we all ready to go nuclear?
I am an unreconstructed old fashioned environmentalist who believes we ought to go nuclear precisely FOR environmental reasons.

As for waste disposal, you can bury it in MY backyard. I don't care. Reprocess it to eliminate most of the volume, vitrify the residual, and bury it. This is a trumped up political problem, not a technical one.
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 09:53 PM
Response to Reply #98
99. A lot of people won't be convinced until they have no heat,
a/c, lights, etc.
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trof Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Original message
100. (global) Warming hits 'tipping point'
Happy Friday.
:-(

Warming hits 'tipping point'
Siberia feels the heat It's a frozen peat bog the size of France and Germany combined, contains billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas and, for the first time since the ice age, it is melting

Ian Sample, science correspondent
Thursday August 11, 2005

Guardian

A vast expanse of western Sibera is undergoing an unprecedented thaw that could dramatically increase the rate of global warming, climate scientists warn today.
Researchers who have recently returned from the region found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometres - the size of France and Germany combined - has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.

Climate scientists yesterday reacted with alarm to the finding, and warned that predictions of future global temperatures would have to be revised upwards. "When you start messing around with these natural systems, you can end up in situations where it's unstoppable. There are no brakes you can apply," said David Viner, a senior scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

"This is a big deal because you can't put the permafrost back once it's gone. The causal effect is human activity and it will ramp up temperatures even more than our emissions are doing."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1546797,00.html
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Chipper Chat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
101. Methane huh?
What a stinky situation!
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Megahurtz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:12 PM
Response to Reply #101
133. Kick. n/t
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Im_Your_Huckleberry Donating Member (160 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
102. great.
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revree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
103. Didn't you know, there is no such thing as Global Warming!
That's what my President told me and he always tells the truth. ;)

I wonder if my little boy will have a future. We are fucked.
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #103
105. None of us have a future
this will dramatically effect all of us in the coming decades. Our lack of ability to grow food, massive forest failures-all lie on a horizon that is very, very close.
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WhoWantsToBeOccupied Donating Member (413 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #105
118. Stop being such a realist... I mean pessimist!
Edited on Thu Aug-11-05 11:55 AM by WhoWantsToBeOccupied
Here in the US, we make our own reality.

This is awful (yet totally predictable).

Anyone know where we should be planning to live in twenty years? Should we buy up land in the Yukon, or is that hopeless? What do the climate models say about human-habitable land later this century if global warming accelerates?
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #118
122. Later this century?
you mean in the next 10-20 years; hell, we could see huge changes in the next two or three years.

I have a friend who has studied climate change in the Antarctic for the past 42 years. He and his colleagues predicted the collapse of the ice shelf 20 years ago-only they thought it would happen many years from now (it's already happening). They predicted climate collapse 50-70 years from now last year-but now with this latest revelation that timetable will also need to be revised.
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trof Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
104. First thought: "Harvest" the methane?
Surely there's a way to store it and use it?
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #104
106. Over millions of acres? n/t
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Selteri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #104
107. Technically the Methane can actually be convert into a clean fuel
The problem is, how do you collect it in this situation as the only method used for harvesting it effectively is from sewer lines.
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RaleighNCDUer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #107
115. Well, first you get a reaaaallly big sheet of plastic....
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smirkymonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:12 PM
Response to Reply #115
134. And a Huuuuuuge Roll of Duct Tape.....
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alkaline9 Donating Member (586 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #104
108. good idea, but...
...how? it covers a million square miles... are we gonna make a million square mile bubble for it to stay in? The fact is that our (so called) leader won't even acknowledge that there is a problem, so by the time a new leader does realize, it might be too late.

With a million square miles of this stuff, I feel like it's already too late. This is even worse than Reagan ignoring AIDS (although that was a travesty). This is an unstoppable chain reaction that's only going to exponentially get worse.
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #108
113. Yep; the end of humanity and most of life on Earth IS worse than Reagan
ignoring AIDS. While everyone is consumed with Iraq and the economy, the world as we know it is coming to an end. Make no mistake about it; unless you are already in your seventies, global warming could very well be the end for you. It's a matter of years or a couple of decades-not centuries.
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
109. This is bad. Melting ancient biological mass is bad, bad, bad.

What most new reports miss here is the number of long-extinct disease-causing microorganisms that are going to get a new opportunity as they are released from cold storage. Diseases we have long since lost any acquired immunity to.



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MeasureTwice Donating Member (26 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #109
117. That's not the big issue
Read up on the permian extinction.
The pre-mammilian lizards (See Gorgons) were nearly driven to extinction by the warming and acompanying drop in oxygen levels caused by a methane release triggered by global warming (caused by volcanoes that time)
Dinosaurs and avian ancestors survived the oxygen starvation better than mammilian. mammals didn't recover until the methane burned off and the oxygen levels returned to normal.
The industrial age has already lowered oxygen levels in the atmosphere, the released methane will lower it further as it oxidizes.
The real danger is lack of oxygen.
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #117
124. Excellent point, MeasureTwice
and welcome to DU!
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MeasureTwice Donating Member (26 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-12-05 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #124
150. I'm not new to DU. I only post when I have something real to add
which means I haven't posted often.
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-12-05 04:24 PM
Response to Reply #117
147. i agree w. yr main point but to pick a tiny nit
Edited on Fri Aug-12-05 04:24 PM by pitohui
dinosaurs, avian ancestors (also dinosaurs), reptiles, and mammals had a common ancestor

according to smithsonian museum of natural history, true dinosaurs and true mammals both appeared at the end of the triassic and lived through the entire mesozoic together, you may check my facts here:
http://www.exn.ca/dinosaurs/story.asp?id=2000032151&name=creatures

mammals never recovered, they just never amounted to a hill of beans to begin w. until the dinosaurs kicked & got out of the way

but yr point is well taken & one that concerns me also, no large animals, be it reptile, bird, or mammal will survive a low oxygen, high methane atmosphere

humanity may survive but imagine the misery of life lived in domes & spacesuits

there can be no freedom where the very air is poison & all live in tin cans
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Megahurtz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
110. Wonderful.
We'll be living in one Giant Fart Ball thanks to the Oil-Mongers.

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Vinnie From Indy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #110
111. lol n/t
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Coventina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
112. I place the blame for this squarely on the BFEE, particularly Poppy
He had the chance, the golden moment, at the end of Gulf War I to push for alternative fuels.

He came out with a major energy policy at the height of his popularity. He could have convinced America and the world to get away from fossil fuels. Instead, it was a big oil blowjob.

He's doomed the whole world. He deserves everything bad to happen to him.
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donsu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
114. kick

nt
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trof Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
116. whoopsy...dupe
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #116
128. yeah hey mods can't we combine these 2 threads

nice to have the discussion in one place
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Whoa_Nelly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
119. Dupe
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tex-wyo-dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
120. Make no mistake...
global warming is THE most important issue of our time and into the future. It trumps everything else with the possible exception of nuclear annihilation or a huge asteroid hitting the earth.

Something simple everyone can do...sign up for the virtual stop global warming march:

http://www.stopglobalwarming.org/
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #120
123. Amen tex-wyo-dem
I've been saying the same thing for 25 years now, but it's an issue that has nearly disappeared from the political debate-even our Dem "leaders" don't want to touch on it for fear of pissing off their corporate masters.

There are no other issues if the planet fails.
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 11:32 PM
Response to Reply #120
137. Peak oil and global warming will be the two issues I think
Therw will be far fewer people on this planet in a few decades.
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dxstone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
121. Kicked and nominated...
...with great sadness.
I wouldn't bother trying to figure out where to move next; there is nowhere to run now, nowhere to go but up...

But to leave you all on a lighter note:

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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
125. Kick
amazing that DUers are more concerned with the price of oil than the end of life as we know it.
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Greybnk48 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
126. Does anyone know what the latitude is of this area
that is thawing in Siberia?
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HereSince1628 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:12 PM
Response to Reply #126
132. Here is a website with maps of the permafrost
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Ian David Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
127. I think I have a pretty good idea what we're in for. See: Soylent Green
Tagline: It's the year 2022... People are still the same. They'll do anything to get what they need. And they need SOYLENT GREEN.

Plot Outline: In an overpopulated futuristic Earth, a New York police detective finds himself marked for murder by government agents when he gets too close to a bizarre state secret involving the origins of a revolutionary and needed new foodstuff.

More:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0070723/





Soylent Green
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

Soylent Green is a classic 1973 science fiction movie starring Charlton Heston, Edward G. Robinson and Chuck Connors. It is credited as being based on the 1966 science fiction novella about overpopulation by Harry Harrison, Make Room! Make Room!, but only maintains a loose structure of that work, and diverges into its own plot points and ideas.

<snip>

The movie, set in the year 2022, depicts a future dystopia, a Malthusian catastrophe that takes place because humanity has failed to pursue sustainable development and has not halted population growth. Charlton Heston plays Thorn, a New York City policeman, investigating the suspicious murder of William R. Simonson (Joseph Cotten), a former member of the board of the Soylent corporation. Thorn's roommate is Sol Roth (Edward G. Robinson), who is also a police researcher.

Spoiler warning: Plot and/or ending details follow.



<snip>

Soylent, as the name suggests, was derived from soya and lentils. However, Thorn discovers that Soylent Green apparently includes the recycled bodies of people picked up by riot control "scoop" trucks, as well as those murdered by the government in an attempt to keep knowledge of this cannibalism from the populace.

Thorn's anguished cry of "Soylent Green is people!" has become an iconic catch phrase and is frequently referenced/parodied in many other works. Reasons for this extensive use in popular entertainment are difficult to pin down to a single explanation. Some "blame" has been pointed to the film's trailer, which indirectly revealed Soylent Green's main ingredient by using quick cuts of body bags being carried across a conveyor belt over spoken narration: "What is the secret of Soylent Green?" The resulting spoiled surprise may have contributed to popular culture's tendency to refer to the movie (see Cultural impact below).

More:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soylent_Green


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olddad56 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
129. Well sports fans, I'd say that about wraps up this the game.
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Megahurtz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
130. The really bad thing about this is
that Bush&Corp simply don't care about what happens to the earth, let alone the people of their own country.

They think that "The Rapture" will take them out of here away from all the chaos before it happens,
and that they will be forgiven for anything they do because they are "chosen".

This is probably one reason why they won't get us off oil dependancy.

They simply don't give a shit about anyone but themselves because they don't think that they will be here to suffer the consequences.

:party:They wallow in their greed, wealth, and decadence thinking that they can do anything to anyone
and be forgiven.:evilgrin:

Trampling people underfoot, taking everything from everyone else for one's own selfish gain,
just because a person thinks that they won't be accountable and won't be here, is just wrong.


What a wake up call for all of them when one of these days they wake up to the chaos that they have created!:nuke:
And the really bad thing for us is that they're dragging all of us down with them.:hurts:

I think we are really fucked.x(
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 11:34 PM
Response to Reply #130
138. this will kill them off too
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-13-05 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #138
157. * is 59
cheney has had, what, 5 myocardial infarctions

they're not worried, they've had theirs, it's clear they care little abt their children or any grandchildren

a great many CEOs & CFOs making these decisions are in their 50s & even their 60s

the best of their lives is over so why should we live

it's that cold

they'd rather a fistful of $$$ in their hands today than life on earth in 100 yrs
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donkeyotay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #100
131. Naw! Y'all are getting worked up over nothing!
It will not be reported on the corpovision 6 o'clock news, and therefore IT DIDN'T HAPPEN! See how well that works? Republicans create their own reality. Then, you react to it, and they go on to create some more. If it doesn't suit their purposes,it's irrelevant! Go back do watching ballgames or soaps or something. Everything is under control.

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Megahurtz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 10:12 PM
Response to Reply #100
135. Dupe. n/t
Would one of the Mods please combine the two threads?
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CountDmoney Donating Member (61 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-05 11:02 PM
Response to Reply #135
136. Is it too late or not?
If we still have a small window (5-10 years) to try to reverse this, what can we do?
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rman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-12-05 07:00 AM
Response to Reply #136
141. We might be able to limit the damage somewhat,
but first we'd have to kick out the robber barons.
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sintax Donating Member (891 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-12-05 06:47 AM
Response to Original message
140. kick n/t
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-12-05 08:46 AM
Response to Original message
142. Can we get some votes on this PLEASE?????????????
140-odd responses and exactly TWENTY-THREE nominations? Come ON!
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-12-05 04:25 PM
Response to Reply #142
148. it wouldn't let me vote
i got an error message, sorry
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G_j Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-12-05 09:00 AM
Response to Original message
143. kick!
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Mairead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-12-05 10:32 AM
Response to Original message
145. Possibly we could do something analogous to cloud-seeding?
Edited on Fri Aug-12-05 10:33 AM by Mairead
I believe the impact of the Yucatan asteroid is thought to have killed off the dinosaurs by creating a sort of 'permanent winter' by putting lots of dust into the high atmosphere, isn't it? I seem also to remember that use of nukes could bring about a 'nuclear winter' in broadly the same way.

So I wonder whether we couldn't do it on purpose, but in a less-devastating way.

I.e., fire off rockets that would explode and distribute a dirt/dust payload at an appropriate altitude to counteract the greenhouse effect. The only bad part I can think of would be that it would cut down on the amount of solar radiation reaching us. So in order to keep the glaciers from melting, we'd have to endure a dimmer world til we got the greenhouse layer under control. I don't know enough of that science to know what effect such a dimming would have on, e.g., agriculture. Does anyone else have a grip on that kind of science?
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sintax Donating Member (891 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-13-05 07:55 AM
Response to Original message
154. kick n/t
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sintax Donating Member (891 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-14-05 08:10 AM
Response to Original message
160. War-Red Tide-Social Malaise-Asthma-Global Warming
It's all connected
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