STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 15 August

[ozymandius]

Monday August 15, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 159 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 238 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 302 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1359
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 12, 2005

Dow... 10,600.31 -85.58 (-0.80%)
Nasdaq... 2,156.90 -17.65 (-0.81%)
S&P 500... 1,230.39 -7.42 (-0.60%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.24% -0.10 (-2.22%)
Gold future... 451.40 +0.50 (+0.11%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

Markets Close Down on Increasing Trade Deficit & Oil Woes

The markets fell today as the trade deficit increased and oil prices surged with a barrel of light crude closing at $66.86, and a weak quarterly report from Dell Inc. The markets reacted after the Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit rose to $58.8 billion in June, an increase of 6.1 percent from the May deficit of $55.4 billion. (http://bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2005/trad0605.htm).

-cut-

Exports were virtually unchanged due to decreases in exports of foods, feeds, beverages, consumer goods, industrial supplies, and materials that offset increases in capital goods. Imports increased $3.4 billion predominantly from an increase in goods imported, while service imports increased modestly.

The trade gap between the US and China increased to $17.6 billion, sent higher by a 39.2 percent surge in Chinese clothing and textile imports as well as increasing to $5.4 billion and $6.9 billion with Canada and Japan respectively. A likely backlash to the rising trade deficit with China is an increasing protectionist sentiment in this country, which can already be seen with the introduction of legislation in both the House and Senate to slap 27.5 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports unless the Chinese go further to allow their currency to strengthen against the dollar. This would make China’ goods more expensive, while at the same time making the United States cheaper, decreasing the trade gap.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil prices move past $67 for first time

US oil prices broke through $67 a barrel for the first time on Friday, setting their fifth consecutive nominal record as latest oil consumption data show high crude prices are hitting emerging Asian economies.

The International Energy Agency, the industrial countries' watchdog, highlighted the economic impact as it cut its growth forecast for oil demand from the region for this year to 3.1 per cent, down from last year's 5.2 per cent growth.

"There is evidence that growth in key energy consuming industrial sectors has slowed to a certain extent," the IEA said. But strong consumption in other areas is offsetting the soft demand from Asia and supporting oil prices, and worldwide oil demand is still forecast to accelerate in 2006.

more...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil Prices Slip(?), Hover Above $66 a Barrel

SINGAPORE - Crude oil futures opened the week lower as fears about refinery breakdowns eased after the weekend passed without reports of new refinery problems.

Mid-afternoon Monday in Singapore, light, sweet crude for September delivery slipped 47 cents to $66.39 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Friday, the contract had peaked at $67.10 before settling at $66.86, up $1.06 from Thursday's close.

-cut-

At London's International Petroleum Exchange, September Brent futures were 50 cents down at $65.95 a barrel.

more...

[ozymandius]

5. Think gas prices will go higher? You can bet on it

WASHINGTON - You're seeing gas prices rise in the blink of an eye, and it seems a sure bet they'll go higher. That's why a major Internet sports-betting parlor began offering odds on rising gas prices this month, and why business is booming for traders who buy and sell oil contracts.

The volume of contracts for future delivery of crude oil set a record Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), and it seems everyone is gambling, hedging and trying to profit from rising fuel prices.

The price of crude oil went above $67 a barrel Friday, before retreating to close at $66.86. Traders expect this week to be equally volatile. Brace yourself for even higher pump prices, since there's a lag before gas prices catch up with crude-oil prices.

On Aug. 6, Pinnacle Sports, a large international Internet bookie headquartered on the Caribbean island of Curacao, began offering odds on future gasoline prices, allowing people who aren't high rollers to bet on fluctuating gas prices in a manner similar to how big institutional investors play the odds on the Nymex.

more...

[Roland99]

17. They've actually dropped here over the last week.

In some places anyway. A mix from around $2.29 up to $2.59.


EDIT: Well, a check of today's prices now shows a low of $2.35 with a NEW ALL-TIME HIGH of $2.69 for 87 octane.

[AnneD]

22. Morning Marketeers

:donut: Wonder how long it will take the average American to make the connection between our sorry economy and Bush. Had one elderly lady tell me that the reason for the high price of gas was the enviromentalist not letting the oil companies drill in Alaska :eyes: I was respectful but figured she had Alzheimers and wouldn't remember what I told her. My brother, who hauls loads ossacionally, has parked his small rig. Businesses are balking at the higher rates he needs to charge to recoup fuel costs. Lots of truckers are doing the same. But alas he said, many are not making the connection (he has though).
On a happier note, school started here today. I love watching the fresh faces come in, the parents taking those pictures, and the happy chaos that goes with it. As the school nurse, I have a few days of quite before my work starts in earnest. Well, Happy Hunting, and watch out for the bears-I think they will be out today.......

[wli]

4. the dollar's been tanking against the Euro overall this month

Have you got any monthly graphs of the dollar vs. various other major currencies in addition to daily?

[ozymandius]

6. Try this page.

http://www.forexdirectory.net/chartsfx.html

[wli]

7. this doesn't seem to work with my browser; any others? thanks n/t

[Roland99]

20. The weekly chart shows a general up-trend since the 1st of July

[54anickel]

8. Morning Ozy & all. TIC comes out this morning. We had the 3rd

largest deficit numbers on record in June at 58.8 billion.

Economists are predicting TIC at 65 billion for June. Didn't we have an auction or 2 where foreigners were net sellers?

Oh well, I'm sure the report will show "more than enough" to cover the deficit and the markets will party on. Buck is gonna be interesting to watch.

[54anickel]

13. Dollar Rises After Report Shows Stronger Demand for U.S. Assets

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a.aj9kV9zyIs&refer=top_world_news

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against the euro after a Treasury Department report showed foreign investors bought U.S. assets at a faster pace in June.

Investors outside the U.S. bought a net $71.2 billion of U.S. financial assets two months ago. A widening yield advantage on U.S. Treasury securities compared with European debt has helped spur a 9 percent rally in the dollar against the euro this year.

``Investment into the U.S. has held up pretty well,'' Ian Stannard, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London, said before the report. ``A number above $60 billion would be enough to boost the dollar.''

snip>

The net purchases in the Treasury International Capital report exceeds the $58.8 billion U.S. trade deficit reported by the Commerce Department on Aug. 12. In May, foreign investors bought a net $55.8 billion of U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds, stocks and other financial assets. The figure was revised lower from a previously reported $60 billion.

``For an investor, it's hard to argue against buying U.S. assets,'' said Adrian Schmidt, head of currency strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in London, before the report. ``People are going to continue to invest in U.S. securities and we have some scope for the dollar to rise.''

`Very Attractive'

more...

[54anickel]

9. Ready buyers, shopping options collide

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/081505dnccobuy.8154bd3.html

snip>

"There are three malls, including an outlet mall. We've got 10 banks to choose from and four grocery stores," he said. "I've never lived in a place that has so many things so close."

More than three dozen people interviewed about shopping in Collin County agreed: They've never known a place so saturated with stores.

When Laura and David Lozano moved to Frisco from Birmingham, Ala., the array surprised them as they drove up Dallas North Tollway.

"I thought, 'Wow, look at all those restaurants. Look at all this stuff,' " she said. On her days off from her job as a pediatric nurse, she said, she'll find herself wandering into shops she didn't plan on visiting while running errands.


A retailer's paradise

About 1,000 Collin County addresses are in the database of the wealthiest Americans compiled by the American Affluence Research Center in Miami. The center sells its list to companies catering to high-income households.

more...

[54anickel]

14. The price of prosperity

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/longterm/stories/081505dnccowealth.2e6909d.html

snip>

Ms. Lynch's move to Plano put her in the richest county in Texas and among the wealthiest 1 percent nationwide. The county's high median household income – about $71,500 annually – has provided entrée into the country club status long enjoyed by the moneyed suburbs of Chicago, Northern California, New York and Washington, D.C. But Collin County's dollar signs can be deceptive.

• On average, Collin County residents have more credit card debt – $4,200 – and a lower net worth – $125,000 – than residents of other high-income counties throughout the country, according to a Dallas Morning News analysis of various economic indicators, including Claritas Market Audit.

• The average amount due on an auto loan or lease service for Collin residents is about $19,300, highest among a dozen comparison counties.

• Bankruptcies – about 3,500 last year – more than doubled over five years, outpacing all other similar-sized counties nationwide.

• About 3,300 homes were foreclosed upon last year, two-thirds in higher-income neighborhoods.

About 56 percent of the county's population of 600,000 hovers around the median household income, with people bringing in $50,000 to $150,000 annually. As a group, residents are generally younger than their counterparts around the country – at a median age of 33.4 years.

more...

[54anickel]

10. FOREX-Dollar edges up as U.S. capital flows data awaited

http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050815:MTFH86976_2005-08-15_00-59-39_T178545:1

TOKYO, Aug 15 (Reuters) - The dollar edged up from a two-and-a-half-month trough against the euro on Monday as traders waited for a capital flows report to judge if the United States is attracting enough funds to finance its trade deficit.

The U.S. Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for June at 1300 GMT will follow figures on Friday showing that the U.S. trade deficit widened to $58.8 billion in June -- the third-largest on record -- from $55.4 billion in May.

A weak reading could revive worries that a further fall in the dollar is needed to help curb the U.S. deficit, which many saw as a key driver of its 30 percent fall against a basket of six major currencies in the three years to the end of 2004.

"I think the dollar looks a bit vulnerable this week," said Nobuaki Kubo, forex planning manager at Resona Bank.

Traders said the dollar was also likely to face selling in the first half of this week due to repatriation of coupon payments on U.S. Treasuries by big investors in Japan and the euro zone.

more....

Then again, INO states the bump in the buck is short covering.

The September Dollar higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week’s decline and is testing broken support marked by the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 87.16. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dollar extends the decline off July’s high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 86.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 87.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in early-day session trading.

The September Euro was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of last week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and have turned neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 125.299 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.860 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening in early-day session trading.

[54anickel]

11. How China controls U.S. bonds

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/columnists/all/stories/081505dnbusdimartino.7e0e2d5.html



It's easy enough in the current investing environment to know what not to buy.

By all appearances, the expensive stock market has lost touch with reality. The nonreaction to $65 oil told me all I needed to know – to stay away.

As for currencies, the navigation is trickier yet, now that the Chinese have revalued the yuan.

The armies of speculators, banking on further revaluation, are making it very difficult to invest in currencies based on the fundamentals of a given country.

That leads us to bonds.

more...

[54anickel]

12. Hedge funds' returns falling

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/08/14/BUGF9E6CQQ1.DTL&type=business

New York -- Hedge funds used to reek of exclusivity. They were run by the most cunning traders on Wall Street, who employed exotic trading techniques designed to make money regardless of whether markets rose, fell or stayed flat. Their clients included only the super-rich.

Those days are over.

Hedge funds are now a $1 trillion industry that counts millions of middle- class citizens as investors through pension funds or mutual funds that invest in hedge funds.

snip>

Some experts say that pension funds and university endowments are plowing money into the high-fee funds at the worst possible time. Investment returns have dropped, inexperienced managers are piling in, and some sophisticated investors appear to be pulling money out.

Hedge funds make -- and risk -- big money by making big bets, mostly with borrowed money. They bet on movements in multiple markets, whether it be stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, options, derivatives or any combination of the above.

more...

[54anickel]

15. Beneath the Surface (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050815-mon.html#anchor0

snip>

The shock of the summer -- or for that matter of the year -- has been the unrelenting surge in oil prices. In real, or inflation-adjusted, terms WTI-based oil prices are now more than 25% above levels reached in the run-up to the first Gulf War in late 1990 and back to levels last seen in late 1982. In the past six months, alone, the increase has been close to 40% -- taking real oil prices up more than three-fold relative to levels prevailing at the trough of the last recession in late 2001. Yet even more stunning than the price run-up itself has been the apparent resilience of the global economy to this full-blown energy price shock. Standard rules of thumb tell us that every $10 increase in oil prices should knock about 0.4% off GDP growth during the following four quarters. But after the briefest of soft patches this spring, the world proceeded to zig rather than zag, as the business cycle miraculously sprang back to life. So much for the precision -- or even the relevance -- of our time-honored macro metrics! Those who felt that $50 oil would derail the global economy have been dead wrong. Why worry about $60 or even $70?

The reason to worry, in my view, is that the cost of this cyclical resilience in the face of an energy shock is not without serious consequences for an unbalanced world. In particular, it has pushed the asset-dependent American consumer to a new state of excess. At first blush, there seems to be little reason to worry -- according to our US team, personal consumption growth is tracking a 5.5% gain in the current quarter. But consider the costs of that stellar accomplishment -- a personal saving rate that has finally hit the “zero” threshold, debt ratios that continue to move into the stratosphere, and asset-led underpinnings of residential property markets that are now firmly in bubble territory. Courtesy of surging oil prices, these costs are now at the breaking point, in my view.

Consider the saving position of the American consumer. The flaws of this measure are well known -- especially the exclusion of saving traceable to capital gains on asset holdings. But shifts in the national-income-based personal saving rate do a perfectly adequate job in depicting disparate movements of labor-market-dominated income generation and personal spending. On that basis, there can be no mistaking the precarious position of today’s US consumer. In the face of an unprecedented shortfall of labor income -- with real compensation growth in the 44 months of the current expansion running $282 billion below the path of the typical cycle -- consumers have not even flinched. Reflecting a new asset-dependent spending mindset -- first arising out of the equity bubble of the late 1990s and more recently supported by the property bubble -- US households have been more than willing to draw their income-based saving rates down into unprecedented territory.

While this penchant for spending may make sense in normal periods, it is the height of recklessness in the face of an energy shock. In the two oil shocks of the 1970s, the personal saving rate averaged about 9.5%, whereas in the oil shock just prior to the Gulf War of early 1991, it was around 7%. That means that in each of those earlier instances, US consumers had a cushion of saving they could draw upon in order to maintain existing lifestyles. Today’s “zero” saving rate underscores the total absence of any such cushion. The only backstop available to support the spending excesses of American consumers is the saving that is now embedded in their over-valued homes. Yet with the housing bubble now in the danger zone, that’s not exactly a comfort zone.

There is another eerie parallel with earlier energy shocks that should not be taken lightly. Just prior to the two oil price spikes of the 1970s, discretionary spending by US households had also gone to excess. The GDP share of consumer durables and residential construction -- the latter being a proxy for the discretionary demand for shelter -- was running at peak levels of around 14.5%. In the aftermath of those two earlier energy shocks, discretionary spending collapsed -- with the combined share of consumer durables and homebuilding falling to 11.5% in the mid-1970s and 10.5% in the early 1980s. These were the most severe consumer-led recessions on record in the United States. In the current expansion, discretionary household spending has moved into a similar zone of excess. The combined share of consumer durables and residential construction has averaged 14.3% of GDP over the past year -- virtually identical to peak shares hit just before the two energy-shock-induced consumption collapses of the 1970s. In other words, just as the energy shocks of the 1970s hit US households at a point when their spending behavior had gone to excess, the same is the case in the present climate. Yet unlike those earlier periods, today’s asset-dependent, overly-indebted American consumer is lacking any semblance of a backstop of income-based saving to shore up the downside. It would be one thing if American consumers were committed to defending modest lifestyles. It is another thing altogether in today’s era of excess -- there is much more room and greater urgency for consolidation.

more...

[Roland99]

16. And, they're off! (And stumbling out of the gate....)

DJIA 10,583.70 -16.60
Nasdaq 2,153.33 -3.57
S&P 500 1,228.76 -1.63
Russell 2000 658.14 -1.86
CBOE Volatility 12.76 +0.02
30 Yr Bond 4.47 +0.03
10 Yr Bond 4.27 +0.03

[ozymandius]

18. 10:13 and none too happy

Dow 10,566.47 -33.84 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,150.11 -6.79 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,227.32 -3.07 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 42.66 +0.28 (+0.66%)
NYSE Volume 240,911,000
Nasdaq Volume 230,104,000

10:00AM: Equities still on the defensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... Pacing the way lower has been Energy, as oil prices pull back from historic levels near $67/bbl... Weakness in drug stocks has weighed modestly on Health Care while losses in software and networking offset gains in hardware... The latter has gotten a boost after Apple Computer (AAPL 47.47 +1.37) was named the top pick for 2005 at Piper Jaffray... Agilent Technologies (A 30.06 +3.65), which beat analysts' Q3 forecasts and agreed to sell its chip business for $2.66 bln, has also helped minimize tech weakness...

Consumer Discretionary, which has been in focus after Lowe's (LOW 65.21 +0.02) beat by $0.03 and issued upside FY06 guidance, continues to struggle amid weakness in homebuilding and a Goldman Sachs downgrade on Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 43.41 -0.92)... DJTA -0.4, DJUA +0.1, DOT +0.1, Nasdaq 100 -0.1, Russell 2000 +0.2, SOX +0.3, S&P Midcap 400 -0.2, XOI -0.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 1429/1082, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1119/1310

9:40AM: Market opens modestly lower as investors struggle to find reasons to get back into the market following Friday's sell-off... Meanwhile, Aug. NY Empire State index rose for a third straight month, checking in above expectations of 20.0 at a strong 23.0... However, while the data provide an early signal on manufacturing trends, boding well for the Philadelphia Fed report on Friday, investors may be waiting for the latest reads this week on inflation - July CPI (tomorrow) and PPI (Wednesday) - to set a more definitive tone to overall trading...

[54anickel]

19. Daily Dollar Watch

Thought UIA would be back today :shrug:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i

Last trade 87.36 Change +0.38 (+0.44%)

Settle 86.98 Settle Time 23:36

Open 87.09 Previous Close 86.98

High 87.49 Low 86.83


http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

Dollar Higher as Market Awaits TICS

The US dollar has bounced back this morning, trading higher against all of the major currency pairs. The market remains mostly subdued ahead of today’s release of the US Treasury Department’s TICS data for June, which reports the amount of foreign purchases of US assets. Expectations vary with some calling for an increase to $64.5 billion from $60 billion in May. However, the recent lack of foreign interest in US Treasury notes – as indicated by last week’s sluggish foreign participation in US Treasury auctions in which the 5-year auction drew only 21.5% (the lowest on record) – could foreshadow a retreat in foreign flows towards the $55 billion figure. Last Friday saw the release of US trade data, which widened to $58.8 billion and, if expectations of the TICS data coming in at $55 billion are correct, this would mean that the US was unable to attract enough foreign inflows to finance its spending habits for three of the past four months. Thus, putting additional downward pressure on the dollar.

Today also sees the release of the New York Fed’s Empire survey of manufacturers in New York state. Last month, the index climbed to its highest level of the year at 23.9. This month, however, the index is expected to pare down some of the gains it made and come in at 19.4. A further look into the status of the US manufacturing sector comes towards the end of the week with the release of the Philadelphia Fed survey, which, unlike the New York Fed survey, is projected to increase to 13.5 from 9.6.

The price of crude oil continues to chart new territory as it sets yet another record high of $67.10/barrel. Although prices are currently down off this latest high, tension about future terrorist attacks could add to oil’s momentum, with $67.75 looking like the next potential resistance level.


snip>

Dollar weakens further in futures market

The US dollar’s weakness has also been apparent in the futures market with the dollar losing ground against the euro, sterling, loonie and aussie. Only against the yen and swissie did the dollar post slight gains.

The euro has moved into net long territory against the dollar for the first time since early May with net long contracts coming in at 4,231 from last weeks net short position of 191 contracts. China’s recent statement that the euro would be one of the four main currencies in its new basket, although not unexpected, should help prop up further interest in the euro.

more...

[ozymandius]

21. Running out of options

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/8/15/62357/9954

by Jerome a Paris (DailyKos diarist)

Mon Aug 15th, 2005 at 03:23:57 PDT

The graph below (from The Economist this week) shows the Fed rates (i.e. short term interest rates) going steadily up in the past year, and the bond yields, i.e. the long term interest rates, which have remained steady or have even gone down in the same period.



The second graph below (pulled from an April 2005 Political Animal post by Kevin Drum) shows the approximate supply and demand curves for oil worldwide:



et's take them both in order.

The first one, at first sight, does not show bad information (and that's how it's spun):


Greenspan is acting as a reasonable Central Banker by increasing interest rates when the economy is doing well, so that it does not overheat, and thus so that growth remains viable longer;

low long term rates reflect market expectations of low inflation for the foreseeable future, and are a testimony to the capacity of the USA to easily and cheaply attract foreign money to fund its twin deficits - which, in a virtuus circle, fuel world growth; such low rates allow US consumers to manage their debt burden easily and allow them to get better valuations for their houses.

The problem, of course, is that short term interest rates which get as high as long term rates are actually very bad news. It means that markets would rather lend you money for a long period than a short one, meaning that they expect money to lose its purchasing power in the meantime, i.e. they expect deflation. That's historically been a very strong sign that a recession was around the corner.

-cut-

Investments throughout the 90s were minimal, i.e. just enough to keep up with fairly predictable demand increases. The oil industry was living with the nightmare of the mid-80s in its collective mind, when a glut of production after heavy investments lead to collapsing prices (and, in the US, to serious economic pain in the oil producing regions). Thus, when demand increased at a markerdly higher rhythm in the last few years, the industry was caught unaware and has now reached the point when it is purely and simply unable to produce significantly more than the world consumes.

This means that, on the oil front, we are now also extremely sensitive to external shocks that disturb supply. Consumers are showing that prices are not yet high enough to make them lower their demand, and whole chunks of Asia are on the brink of the car civilisation, and will not be deterred by somewhat highish gasoline prices. Therefore any adjustments to make demand equal supply currently come form the supply side, and any disruption of supplies that would prevent that will force an adjustment on the demand side, which can only come from massively higher prices (and I mean multiples of today's prices, not just 10 or 20$/bl more).

so much more...

© 2005. Steal what you want.

[54anickel]

23. New York Fed Factory Index Shows 3rd Month of Growth (Update3)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aGzkws3JQJzM&refer=us

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in New York state expanded at a faster-than-expected pace in August as new orders surged to a high for the year, a Federal Reserve index showed.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire index fell to 23 this month, little changed from July's 23.9 reading, and the third straight month of growth. Manufacturing is expanding when the index readings are above zero. The reading exceeded the median estimate of 18.5 in a Bloomberg News survey and new orders were the highest this year.

Manufacturers reported deliveries are taking longer with the jump in orders, as demand recovers from a lull in the second quarter. Companies including liquid-crystal display glassmaker Corning Inc. foresee rising sales, and economists said a drawdown in inventories during the second quarter will spur production and boost economic growth.

``This is pretty encouraging, and the strong new orders index suggests the recovery will continue and may even strengthen,'' said David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Inv. in New York. ``Inventories are quite lean again and so manufacturing seems to be picking up.''

more...

[54anickel]

24. 11:54 pre-lunch snapshot - all red - then I've gotta run

Dow 10,588.68 -11.63 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,155.47 -1.43 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,229.34 -1.05 (-0.09%)
10-yr Bond 42.66 +0.28 (+0.66%)
30-yr Bond 44.66 +0.25 (+0.56%)
NYSE Volume 598,824,000
Nasdaq Volume 554,102,000

11:30AM : Little changed since the last update as stocks continue to trade below the flat line... Perhaps adding to this morning's struggles has been continued pressure on bonds, which has lifted benchmark yields on the 10-year note (-5/32) to 4.26% and subsequently raised borrowing costs for corporations and consumers... While the Treasury market improved somewhat after the monthly TICS report, further analysis of the data has stalled early recovery efforts...

Foreign net Treasury coupon purchases were just $7.9 bln, the weakest since Sept. '03, while China, Japan and the Caribbean - the largest supporters of all US securities - both took in less than the previous month... NYSE Adv/Dec 1250/1740, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1130/1675

11:00AM : Market bounces off session lows, as volatile oil prices continue to dictate early action... Crude oil futures recently falling to their worst levels of the morning to around $66.30/bbl (-$0.56) appears to have taken some of the pressure off investors' interest to find bargains in the semiconductor group (SOX 464.63 +1.80), which has lost roughly 5% over the last two weeks...

Providing the largest boost has been Teradyne (TER 15.78 +0.73), surging 4.9% off the back of strong momentum behind Agilent (A 29.50 +3.09), while tomorrow afternoon's Q2 earnings report from Applied Materials (AMAT 17.55 +0.16) and Thursday's Semi Book-To-Bill data have also kept chip stocks in focus... SOX +0.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 1114/1822, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1098/1643

10:30AM : Major indices extend their reach into negative territory, as oil prices turn positive for the first time today... While crude oil futures ($66.60/bbl -$0.26) have almost as quickly slipped back into negative territory, as traders lock in some of last week's 6.8% gain in the commodity - its largest weekly advance in two months, the fact that average gasoline prices hit another record high over the weekend ($2.50/gallon) continues to weigh on sentiment... NYSE Adv/Dec 1118/1694, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1013/1648

[ozymandius]

25. lunchtime check-in

12:05
Dow 10,592.42 -7.89 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,155.68 -1.22 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,229.72 -0.67 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.264 +0.26 (+0.61%)
NYSE Volume 629,526,000
Nasdaq Volume 574,962,000

11:30AM: Little changed since the last update as stocks continue to trade below the flat line... Perhaps adding to this morning's struggles has been continued pressure on bonds, which has lifted benchmark yields on the 10-year note (-5/32) to 4.26% and subsequently raised borrowing costs for corporations and consumers... While the Treasury market improved somewhat after the monthly TICS report, further analysis of the data has stalled early recovery efforts...

Foreign net Treasury coupon purchases were just $7.9 bln, the weakest since Sept. '03, while China, Japan and the Caribbean - the largest supporters of all US securities - both took in less than the previous month... NYSE Adv/Dec 1250/1740, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1130/1675

[54anickel]

26. Signs Of The Times:

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/hoye/hoye081505.html

snip>

Big Speculations: Tremendous speculative manias have always been accompanied by increasing short-dated market rates of interest. Often the completing phase of the action runs against some 18 months of rising interest rates.

We dragged this out in January, 2000 when almost every subsequent weekly edition noted that March, 2000 would be Month 18. It provided a remarkable forecast for the timing of that climax that took the Nasdaq to 5049 on March 10, 2000.

How does this mania compare? Short rates have been rising relentlessly since the key low for treasury bills of 0.86% in January, 2004. This count makes August Month 19. Within the timing accuracy of this one, it is time for a monumental reversal in the hot speculative games.

All of them!

Beyond the oil mania, these would include the biggest speculation in corporate bonds, residential real estate, as well as the hedge funds1 phenomenon.

On the latter, a group of powerful Wall Street bankers have told the hedge funds to clean up the backlog of confused or unconfirmed transactions. Right up to the peak of the 1973 bull market, one of the signs of a speculative conclusion was when the process of doing the actual transactions in the back office clogged up.

snip>

Wrap: The usual format of this week's Pivotal Events has been changed to emphasize that the speculation includes stocks, corporate bonds, and industrial commodities. More specifically, the small caps have been replicating their action going into the 1973 top. The consequent bear was the worst since the 1930s.

more...

[ozymandius]

27. 1:43 and they just couldn't be happier

Dow 10,641.55 +41.24 (+0.39%)
Nasdaq 2,171.23 +14.33 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,235.19 +4.80 (+0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 42.59 +0.21 (+0.50%)
NYSE Volume 940,751,000
Nasdaq Volume 866,529,000

1:30PM: Stocks continue to move higher in an extension of their recovery effort as oil prices slip below $66/bbl for the first time today... Providing additional pressure to crude oil futures ($65.70/bbl -$1.16) has been a stronger greenback, which make dollar-denominated commodities like oil less attractive... The dollar has enjoyed its best gain against the euro (1.2364) in about three weeks, catching a bid after the Treasury Dept. showed foreign investors bought $71.0 bln in U.S. assets in June - the fastest pace in about six months...NYSE Adv/Dec 1744/1415, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1571/1362

1:00PM: Major averages continue to trade near their best levels as market internals now suggest a modestly bullish bias... Advancers on the NYSE have recently turned positive, now holding a 17 to 14 edge over decliners while advancing issues on the Nasdaq have also turned the corner, now outpacing declining issues by a 15 to 13 margin... Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq continue to trade above initial support levels but modest buying interest has not been enough to push the indices through resistance levels of 10640, 1237 and 2178, respectively... NYSE Adv/Dec 1706/1405, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1579/1346

[hatrack]

28. Wow! Oil's ONLY $65.70?!? TIme to BUY BUY BUY!!!!

:eyes:

[ramapo]

31. It is really quite bizarre

Oil goes up $6+ in what two weeks? It drops back a bit and the market celebrates like happy times are here again and everything really is going to be ok.

I guess as long as there is gas in the pipelines and enough Walmart jobs to keep people happy, well the people will be happy.

[Roland99]

33. They're desensitizing us.

[loudsue]

29. Kicking!

:applause: Thanks, Marketeers, for keeping us informed!

:kick::kick::kick:

[54anickel]

30. Forecasters Predict Drop in Deficit

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050815/budget_deficit.html?.v=5

Congressional Budget Office Projects Annual Deficit Will Drop to $331 Billion


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The federal budget-deficit picture turned brighter Monday as congressional scorekeepers released new estimates showing the level of red ink for the current fiscal year would drop to $331 billion.

The new report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which does budget analysis for lawmakers in Washington, gave the latest proof that surging revenues and a steadily growing economy are combining to bring the deficit down from a record $412 billion posted last year. CBO predicts a $314 billion deficit for the budget year starting Oct. 1.

The report is welcome news for President Bush, who has seen the budget situation during his tenure deteriorate markedly from predictions of unending surpluses when he took office in January 2001.

"The CBO report confirms the dramatic improvement in the 2005 deficit picture that the Administration reported last month," said Scott Milburn a spokesman for the White House budget office. "A strong economy fueled by tax relief is generating stronger-than-projected revenues."

more...

[54anickel]

32. Treasurys decline on economic data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BA35EA888%2D3660%2D4ABA%2D9512%2DFC71E0EE9926%7D

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Treasury notes declined Monday as the market focused on the details behind the headline in a regional manufacturing report.

snip>

"For those who expect growth to ease during the second half of the year, and I include myself in that group, the strength in manufacturing argues that any slowdown will be somewhat modest," said Joel Naroff, president of consulting firm Naroff Economic Advisors.

"And if that is the case, there is simply no reason for the Fed to stop raising rates."

snip>

Companies have had difficulty passing on higher prices to consumers, which accounts for still low levels of inflation in the U.S. economy and relatively low intermediate and long-term bond yields. Still, the bond market remains on watch for a breakout of inflation, which erodes the value of interest payments on fixed-income investments.

Rate hikes in store

Futures markets are betting with confidence that the Fed will raise interest rates in quarter-point increments in September and November, bringing the target to 4%. The likelihood of a like-size move in December is below 50-50, but the chance of a 4.25% target in early 2006 is also a possibility.

more...

[ewagner]

34. kick

it back up to the top....

[Maeve]

35. Final with blather

Dow 10,634.38 +34.07 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,167.04 +10.14 (+0.47%)
S&P 500 1,233.87 +3.48 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 42.70 +0.32 (+0.76%)
NYSE Volume 1,562,880,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,389,135,000

Close: The market opened lower but closed near session highs after gaining momentum midday amid a pullback in oil prices from record levels... With inflation on the minds of so many this week, particularly ahead of tomorrow's July CPI report, oil prices played a key role in dictating Monday's action... When oil prices hit their highs of the day in early trade, reminding investors about oil's inflationary impact on corporate profits and consumer spending, the market fell to its worst levels...

But crude oil futures ($66.27/bbl -$0.59) closing lower for just the second time in 13 sessions helped pave the way for investors looking for bargains following Friday's partly oil-induced consolidation efforts... To that end, commodities traders locked in some of the gains that last week resulted in oil's largest weekly advance (+6.8%) in two months... Meanwhile, market breadth turning positive midday also validated the turnaround in underlying sentiment that helped seven out of ten economic sectors close higher... Despite benchmark yields on the 10-year note (-7/32) closing at session highs (4.27%), Financial provided the bulk of upside leadership...

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo