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sabra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 09:38 AM
Original message
U.S. author forecasts $5 gas by next year

http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/?feed=TopNews&article=UPI-1-20050817-10042300-bc-us-gasprices-prediction.xml

U.S. author forecasts $5 gas by next year

CHICAGO, Aug. 17 (UPI) -- An oil expert and author who correctly forecast $3 per gallon gasoline in the United States this year says the price will reach $5 next year.

Craig Smith, author of "Black Gold Stranglehold," told the Chicago Sun-Times there's also a possibility the price could hit $10 per gallon if terrorists strike a major Middle East oil field.

Last year, Smith predicted $3-a-gallon gas and $65-a-barrel crude oil prices this year, and now says oil prices will jump to $80 a gallon by the end of 2006.

....

"Why are they charging higher prices for gas? Because people will pay it," he told the Sun-Times.



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Coastie for Truth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 09:41 AM
Response to Original message
1. My wife (MSW) said the same thing
but she has the experience of being married to an engineer inthe alternative-green-renewable energy field -- and being dragged to her Lovins and Ovshinsky.
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mike_c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 09:41 AM
Response to Original message
2. the robber barons are getting ready to carve up the dying vestiges...
...of the U.S. economy.
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I concur Donating Member (83 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 02:51 PM
Response to Reply #2
51. yes indeed...
...and reap the $$$ rewards.
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OKthatsIT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-19-05 09:23 AM
Response to Reply #2
96. DESTROY the US Middle Class, move them into Labor Camps
The elderly die off...saving billions in medicare.

And alternative energy research will still be ignored. Yup, sounds like a good Energy Bill AND population control.
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4dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 09:42 AM
Response to Original message
3. Nothing new here
at least for the PEAK OIL crowd that's been following the news of the oil industry..

I'm glad to see that the mainstream press is picking up on the high cost of gasoline but rather sad they are leaving out the main reason why.. Can you say oil depletion??
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wli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #3
18. there's not a shortage yet, but there will be n/t
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Cobalt Violet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 09:45 AM
Response to Original message
4. I predict $40.15 a gallon in one year.
This is how I came to that number.

Current price: $3.65 gallon, going up $.10 a day x 365 days a year.

.10 x 365 + 3.65 = 40.15
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Teaser Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 10:33 AM
Response to Reply #4
13. But
there will be an oil ease in the first quarter of next year, after winter and before spring starts to get hot and driving volume is still low.

Prices will still be at a high for the season, but there will be a marked decline from the preceding season.
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nine30 Donating Member (593 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 01:33 PM
Response to Reply #4
42. I predict $ 50 /gallon. Do we have a $55 ...?
Going once ..going twice...
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Justyce Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 09:47 AM
Response to Original message
5. It would be nice if
everyone could organize & actually follow through with a boycott, but we are all so dependent on automobiles. I've been trying to ride my bike more & not drive unless absolutely necessary, share rides, etc., but it would have to be on a much bigger scale to even make a dent. If prices keep rising like they are, though, people won't be able to afford to drive much anyway...
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kestrel91316 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #5
14. After the worst heat is over in Sept. I will go back to ...............
riding my bike to work most of the time. I can also ride the bus for most other needs, though it is not my preference. We have acceptable (but not great) mass transit here in Lost Angeles.

And if gas gets too high I can take Amtrak to SB to visit the BF. But I am getting a new Civic (manual tranny) in the fall/winter so gas use will be less of an issue.
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mccoyn Donating Member (512 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 12:00 PM
Response to Reply #14
24. You sound like me!
A couple years ago I started bicycle commuting in the summer (different climate) and using the bus for some other things. Last year I bought a recumbent bike. It was very expensive for a bike, but well worth it. All the pressure on my wrists, neck and back were gone. The bike itself rolls very efficiently (even upright bikes can roll well) that I can coast long distances without losing much speed. Once I got that, I just felt that bicycle commuting was less of a chore, more like a light stroll.

Just last weekend I moved to a new home that is within walking distance of my workplace. Now, I'll be able to leave the car parked even in the winter.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #24
27. What Kind of Bent Do You Have?
I just test-rode a Stiletto and a Gold Rush.
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mccoyn Donating Member (512 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 01:02 PM
Response to Reply #27
37. Its a Lightning Phantom.
http://www.lightningbikes.com/phantom.htm

The thing I dislike about it is the steering bar blocks my vision some. Usually when I look at the ground ahead of the bike to watch for cracks in the pavement. This just requires moving my head so I look past it from a different angle.

Like I said, it rolls very well and is comfortable. The seat is a very simple design compared to the pictures you've posted, so those may be more comfortable.

Climbing hills is slow, but not hard with the gears available. Going down hills is a bit like sitting in a Lazy-Boy with a fan blowing in your face. :)
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 10:54 PM
Response to Reply #37
64. Unfortunately, Not Currently In Production
from Lightning's website:

Notice: Phantom production is suspended while we are looking for a new frame supplier.
Our previous supplier in San Diego has stopped making bike frames.


They are out of Phantoms, and only have S/M size Thunderbolts.
Not sure if the higher-end Lightnings are affected.



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henslee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 05:48 PM
Response to Reply #27
59. Best thinkg that could happen to this country would be everybody riding
bikes, trimming down. Screw all this oil.
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pauldavid Donating Member (197 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 12:06 PM
Response to Reply #59
82. Can you imagine
US streets filled with people on bikes and chinas streets filled with cars? Strange thought that you might one day see.
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youngdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-19-05 07:56 AM
Response to Reply #14
95. I wish I could ride a bike. But I have a 170 mile,
trip three days a week to attend classes at the nearest university. I would move, but have children established in this school district. I am so screwed.
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Boomer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #5
19. "people won't be able to afford to drive much anyway"
I suppose you could call that a boycott, of sorts.

A boycott may help people vent their spleen, but it doesn't address the basic issue: we are overly dependent on oil and demand is exceeding available supply. We may not LIKE paying high prices for a valued commodity, but under the capitalist system that's just the way it works, folks.

Consumer boycotts are useless when dealing with a finite resource. We need a consumer shift to non-petroleum based products. But for that, we need a government that will encourage the creation of those options.

Fat chance you'll get that kind of action from Repugs.
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Maggie_May Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 01:12 PM
Response to Reply #5
38. I am with you
I have started car pooling to work its working out great. I just not giving the gas companies any more money. My motto is don't drive unless you have too.
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ikojo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-19-05 07:56 AM
Response to Reply #5
94. Get a scooter...I have a Vespa LX 50
Filled it yesterday for three dollars. I work 15 miles from where I live and a full tank gets me to and from work four days. Of course I don't scoot to work when it's raining, then I take the bus. I realize not all have this option but those who live near cities often do and choose not to exercise it.
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tocqueville Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 09:51 AM
Response to Original message
6. Gas is at $6 per gallon in Europe now.
But 80% of that price is taxes. The French government has just issued that all the tax excedents created by the actual situation will be redistributed to the taxpayers.

It makes me wonder who has the cheaper gas now, Europe or US ? Knowing that taxes and the cost of transportation/maintenance + advertisement goes for about 25% of the price of gas in the US.
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shrike Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 10:00 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. Yes, and you have your public transit
Very good public transit, I might add: I rode it whilst I was there.

Plus, your communities seem to be designed sanely: i.e., shopping, amusements, etc. are within walking or biking distance.

It's only here that we have isolated fortress communities, filled with yuppies who spend all their free time on the road, enroute to youth soccer games.
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nolabels Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 10:09 AM
Response to Reply #6
12. After the taxpayer subsidizes everything having to do with oil............
...the europeans probably have it cheaper. A large chunk of that defense budget is directly attributable to keeping oil markets like they are. Many of the fiefdoms in the middle east would have been long overrun without it. It's the noble cause of corporate welfare :shrug:
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 11:50 AM
Response to Reply #6
21. and people in Europe really drive much smaller cars unlike the behemoths
in the US
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #21
30. The Behemoths Are Not Selling Anymore
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Kber Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 07:26 AM
Response to Reply #30
71. True
Just bought a very fuel efficient car. Was tempted to get the bigger size but didn't b'cause I couldn't afford it. Didn't even consider the savings in gas at the time, but boy am I glad now!
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WinkyDink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #6
57. Europeans
1. have shorter commutes;
2. have superior mass transit;
3. have vibrant urban centers, where many work;
4. have much better sights to see on the way!
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moondust Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #57
63. Shows wisdom.
Something that has never been valued too highly in the U.S.
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BiggJawn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 09:29 AM
Response to Reply #6
76. So they spend $500 a month in Europe EVERY month for fuel?
Edited on Thu Aug-18-05 09:29 AM by BiggJawn
I seriously doubt it.

See, all this "what are YOU snivelling about? the Europeans spend a LOT more per gallon than you do" talk is just bullshit unless we have some more numbers to put it in context..

I bet Heroin cost a lot more here in the US than in Amsterdam, but you know what? I could GIVE a fuck, since I don't USE Heroin.

If I could get by on 5 gallons or less a month, I wouldn't give a shit if it cost 6-7-8-9 bucks a gallon, but since I use about 15 gallons a week, I'm REALLY worried. And that's the pared-down usage, no "joyriding", no shit.

So, just how MANY of those pricey $6 gallons DOES a European go through in a month? Hmmm?

The last fellow I ask this of must have had a computer meltdown, because I never got a response.
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Nihil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #76
79. Personally, yes.
Working with $500 ~= £280
- My last fill was priced 91p/l = £4.13/g
- I usually take about 45 litres = 10 gallons = ~£41 per tank
- I fill up about every four days (on average)

This is about seven fills in a month which is in the right
ballpark for your $500 a month.

Damn glad that I don't have to pay for heroin on top of that :-)
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BiggJawn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 12:35 PM
Response to Reply #79
84. OK, next question, if I may be so nosy....
I'll go first.
My bring-home pay is about $2,000.
Out of that, about $550 goes for keeping a roof over my head and water to flush with and heat, yada, yada, yada.

Another $500 for vehicle loan, taxes, and insurance.In fact, I get to go out a replace a ruined tyre today to the tune of $50-70... Right after I drop $25 at the laundry for the month's washing.

And that's not even calculating the every-rising bill at the grocer's or the druggist (not all the medicine is covered by insurance, and I forgot! There's the "Employee Contribution" for medical insurance I forgot to figure in)

So, you can see where a $480 a month fuel bill would leave me. Up the proverbial creek w/o the proverbial paddle....

How do YOU fare?
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Nihil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-19-05 05:33 AM
Response to Reply #84
92. Whoa - I was trying to help, not pick a fight!
My previous post was only intended to show:
- some Europeans actually *do* spend that amount of money on petrol each month
- it is not only Americans that have to drive around
- no-one (barring the obscenely rich) will find it easy when the price rockets

I was not trying to have some "I'm worse off than you" pissing match
or debating whether I'll be better off than you when the *real* fuel
price increases arrive.

I fully recognise that I'm (currently) in a fortunate position:
- I am paid a damn good salary at the moment.
- I live in a country with a national health system.
- I can use a train when I have to work in London or somewhere on the line.

I do not deny that you are in a much worse state but neither do I
deny that, with redundancies about to be announced, this could change
overnight. If the latter happens, I will be in deep shit *that day*,
not after a round of price gouging by the petrol companies.

Like I said earlier, I was trying to inform - not fight or mock.

Peace.
Nihil
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BiggJawn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-19-05 07:48 AM
Response to Reply #92
93. Not trying to "pick a fight" either...
Edited on Fri Aug-19-05 07:51 AM by BiggJawn
Really, I just want to learn.
A lot of people throw out the "well, it's $6 a gallon in Europe, so what are you Murkans sniffling about?" line, and that's it. No further illumination as to how that figures into the overall Standard of Living equation.

OK, so it's $6 a gallon. If the average take-home income is equal to 50-60 thousand US dollars a year, then compartively, they're paying the same portion of their income for fuel as *I* do at $2.50 a gallon. If the average take-home pay is like my 24 Kilobucks, then they really DO have it more raw than I do.

I really thank you for your response here, it gave me the info I was looking for!

You said :
"- I am paid a damn good salary at the moment.
- I live in a country with a national health system.
- I can use a train when I have to work in London or somewhere on the line."

EXACTLY! Oh, some of us are paid a damn good salary, too (not me, unfortunately, I'm one of those "lazy, over-paid" state workers our current Governor railed against during his campaign)But a lot of us are not.

We could start a whole new thread about the comparisons between the NIH and our wonderful for-profit medical rackets, so we'll leave well enough alone there.... :-)

Mass transit, once you leave the coasts here, is extremely rare. Only Chicago, AFAIK, has a transit system that's actually used by people who could afford cars and gasoline. Elsewhere, it's a system of limited usefulness, constantly under attack by psuedo-Libertarians who say "Why should *I* have to pay for carting drunks and poor people around? Let 'em WALK!"

Again, thanks for repsonding, and really, I wasn't trying to pick a fight, I was just frustrated with never having key pieces of information about the European standard of living.
:hi:
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Nihil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-19-05 09:33 AM
Response to Reply #93
98. OK!
I understand your frustration - didn't mean to come across as a
sneer at "you Murkans" :hi:

I'm fortunate to have a job (today at least :-( ) that pays nearly
twice yours. If I had that pay cut I would be in deep shit as just
about everything else is scaled up to suit. 'Nervous' doesn't cut it.

With regard to mass transit systems, only some of the bigger cities
have a tube/metro/subway system but most towns have reasonable buses.
You are fine if you live in London (e.g.) or most of the suburbs
or even the larger towns (if you live & work in the same one).
The problem comes when you are that little bit further out of town
and/or - like me - you work in a more distant town.
I would have a minimum of three buses to get to work: one to get into
my nearest town, one to get to the next town and one to get from there
to the village where I work. Takes a lot of time and costs almost as
much as the petrol. The expensive alternative is one bus and two
trains (which takes just as much time and even more money - not good).

No, the coming crunch is going to be very unpleasant indeed - I fear
for my children and for the children of all nations.
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OKthatsIT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 09:58 AM
Response to Original message
7. THIS IS 'RAPE'. and still no reality based 'energy policy'
The GOP IS TOAST
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natrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 10:05 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. 5$ a gallon and this country will be lightly toasted
burnt at 10$
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #11
26. No Way. People Will Just Buy More Fuel-Efficient Cars and Drive Less
I see more Priuses every day. Many brand new ones.
The minivan folks seem to have settled on the Scion.
More than a few Cooper Minis too.

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natrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #26
35. casual research will show you
that this country particularly is in trouble with 10+$ fuel. It's not just driving your car. It's everything. Fertilizers,plastics, transportation of raw materials/ finished products, air travel, home/biz heating/cooling......yes a prius would save you some money in fuel but do you know how much fuel it costs to produce that prius ? -alot---it's a big deal if fuel goes up and over 100 bucks a barel

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
Free Daily Financial Newsletter - UrbanSurvival.com
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NickB79 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #26
44. Trucks and SUV's made up the bulk of sales this summer
Thanks to all the employee-price discounts all the US manufacturers were offering. This in spite of gas prices over $2/gal all summer. Some people are buying more fuel-efficient vehicles, but the majority still seem to be stuck in the old SUV mindset. Even if people continue to increase hybrid and small car sales in the next few years, there will still be tens of millions of gas guzzlers on the roads for a decade or more to come.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 10:43 PM
Response to Reply #44
61. Discounted to the Point of Unprofitability
Yes, they can sell the big SUVs, but they aren't making any money on them
if they have to discount them so heavily.

They can sell THESE SUV's at full price or higher:


Ford Escape Hybrid
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gasperc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #26
50. yes, but the economy will crack by then
Agreed people will and are changing their habits at some point regrettably demand will snap and the economy will break into recession, how far and fast is the question.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 04:10 PM
Response to Reply #50
56. Break Into Recession? It Hasn't Really Broken Out of the Last Recession!
Other than a bunch of froth in the housing market, what is there?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 07:42 AM
Response to Reply #26
74. The nation's trucking industry would collapse between $5 and $10/gal.
Edited on Thu Aug-18-05 07:42 AM by ozymandius
With a road-based distribution system, the whole industrial infrastructure would break down. Roads would become impossibly expensive to maintain. The transport of most goods would be severely compromised.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 01:39 PM
Response to Reply #74
86. No They Wouldn't
They still have roads in Europe. Some of them were built in Roman times.

Asphalt isn't the only roadbuilding material or even a particularly good one.

We would probably ship more goods by rail,
and use the trucks more for short-haul,
like everybody else does,



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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 08:14 AM
Response to Reply #26
75. Most people can't afford to do either.
Most people can't just go out and buy a new car and gasoline demand is relatively inelastic meaning that it is not very price sensative.
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spinbaby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 11:50 AM
Response to Reply #26
80. Only if we can
If you can't afford a more fuel-efficient car and have to drive to work, you're screwed. I recall that in 70s gas crisis, poor people wound up driving the giant gas-guzzling economy cars.

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...of J.Temperance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-19-05 10:06 AM
Response to Reply #11
100. In Britain
Edited on Fri Aug-19-05 10:07 AM by ...of J.Temperance
We currently pay $6.40 a gallon, but it's been between $5.50 and $6 for the last few years and that's been WITHOUT the cost of a barrel shooting up to near $70. The prices as a whole vary in Europe, I think Italy has the cheapest, but Britain has the most expensive...we always have, the Blair government loves ripping the people off.


Gosh, I think the entire nation would rejoice if we were paying $2.60 or something, to the point that a Bank Holiday might very well have to be declared.
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Barkley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 10:03 AM
Response to Original message
9.  Q: "Why are they charging higher prices for gas?"
A: Because they know that the Republican controled Congress will not investigate market manipulations that has reduced the gas refinery capacity and increase prices.

Like the California energy crisis a few years back, refineries are experience 10 temporary shut-downs (for maintenance, fires etc) since mid-July.

We subsequently learned that the California shut-downs were bogus and Enron and company were gaming the system
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candice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 10:43 AM
Response to Reply #9
15. Shrub finally succeeds in the oil business
by shutting down Iraq and further enriching our great friends, the Saudis. I wonder how many Saudi "terrorists" are pouring over the borders into Iraq. Halliburton is making out like a bandit, too. And we can't have CAFE standards, can we? Japan has to be the one to develop the hybrids....Bush & Schwarzenegger are looking for fuel cells to solve the problem (after the last bit of oil has been exploited).
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lutefisk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #15
28. Like Hitler finally succeeded in the artist business
Art plunder, oil plunder... whatever. Evil little men both.
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Doremus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 11:14 AM
Response to Reply #9
16. I think skepticism is generally healthy.
However, why now (manipulation I mean)?

Why not years ago when oil was $15bbl? Or $25?

Any theory must necessarily consider the reality that sweet crude is in depletion. Oil companies don't need to manipulate supply, Mother Nature has seen to it. Increased refinery capacity is meaningless if there is no extra raw material to refine.

This is not to say that big biz is blameless. They've known for decades this day was coming, yet they placed their own selfish interests above those of the populace and pushed us into an oil orgy that gives us the highest per capita usage ratio in the world. Our elected representatives helped them do that. And so did we.

So now we've burned through a precious resource that can never be replaced, the oil companies will reap unconceivable profits and we will get the shaft.

Business as usual.
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Strelnikov_ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 12:06 PM
Response to Reply #16
25. Could Not Agree More
It isn't like ownership of the oil infrastructure has changed hands since the low prices of the late 90's.
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natrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #16
36. notice there is no effort in past 10 years
by big oil to increase refinery capacity-they know
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reprobate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 01:23 PM
Response to Reply #16
39. A question to the petro corporations:


With oil reserves in decline, and no new oil being made, what are you sharks going to do when there IS NO MORE PRODUCT TO SELL?

Just another example of the trouble with next quarter's bottom line planning that is the paradym of American Corporate Think.

Does anyone know if it's really true that middle and upper management of american corporations actually take STUPID PILLS each day?
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SnowGoose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 01:53 PM
Response to Reply #16
46. I salute your skepticism, but remember the "demand" part of
"supply and demand".

With the economies of China and India taking off, plus the replacing of older, smaller cars with gas-guzzling SUV's, there's so much demand, that even with a steady supply, you're going to have a crunch.

An important part of the peak oil scenario (as I understand it) is that demand continues to increase, even as production begins to level off, which explains the increased prices now, even though we haven't seen the expected reductions in production yet.
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Barrett808 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 10:03 AM
Response to Original message
10. Strangely, he completely misunderstands Peak Oil
"This country has not built a new refinery in 30 years, we stopped new oil exploration ... and put a moratorium on offshore drilling."

None of which is the reason for ever-higher oil prices. Weird.
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Art_from_Ark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 11:22 AM
Response to Reply #10
17. ANd of course, one of the rationales for the California energy crisis was
"they haven't built a new power plant in years".

Which, of course, turned out to be total bullshit.
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 11:53 AM
Response to Reply #10
22. the lack of new refineries is a valid piece of the puzzle
because we wouldn't have to be buying the sweet crude so much. The other kinds of crude are much cheaper
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FlaGranny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #22
29. Is the lack of new refineries
due to the fact that the oil companies do not want to waste money for the limited increase in production, which will disappear when oil becomes even more scarce?
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 01:28 PM
Response to Reply #29
40. Yeah and the environmental rules and Nimby
If I were EXXON, I wouldn't waste a billion bucks right now building a new refinery as I woukd have a hard time justifying it to the stockholders. Unless of course I could make lots more money by buying and refining the lesser grades of crude. As oil rises in price, that may become feasible
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Barrett808 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #22
33. I suspect this is of a piece with the lack of oil tanker investment
Edited on Wed Aug-17-05 12:55 PM by Barrett808
The petroleum industry knows they won't be necessary.
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #33
41. Yes and have you noticed the BP ads? They seem to be
emphasizing other businesses don't they? They are talkign solar, hydrogen , etc., because they know, THEY KNOW there's no more oil to be discovered that is in any way easily recoverable.
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silvermachine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-19-05 09:30 AM
Response to Reply #41
97. I don't know...
...my take on those ads is that they are a kind of placebo. Sort of saying "Yeah it pretty much sucks about gas prices dunnit, but hey we're on the case trying to find other sources. But, um in the meantime, just keep shelling out at the pump ok?":+


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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 11:49 AM
Response to Original message
20. I Went Shopping for a Recumbent Bike Yesterday
Those things are SOOO comfortable to ride, and fast too!

These are the models I test-rode:





I think either of them may help me to redefine what is within biking distance.
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ArchTeryx Donating Member (189 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 05:53 AM
Response to Reply #20
68. IF they are mass produced.
Recumbent bikes are, right now, all custom and all insanely expensive. I know I couldn't afford the $1000+ price tag most come with at the local bike shops.
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mccoyn Donating Member (512 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 07:32 AM
Response to Reply #68
73. How does $1000+ compare to most commuter vehicles? -nt
nt means no text
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BiggJawn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 09:37 AM
Response to Reply #73
77. If you don't have it, it may as well be $100,000.
That easy Racer is a sweet bike, but I realized the other day that I don't even have the $20 in the "budget" to spare to buy a new tyre for the Red Bike if I blow one.

May as well be a hundred thousand bucks as a Kilobuck.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 04:44 PM
Response to Reply #73
88. Cheapest 'Bent is $499, about 1/20 the cost of the Cheapest Car
I believe the cheapest new car is the Hyundai Accent, at $9999,
which is about twice the cost of the most expensive recumbents,
and about 20 times the cost of the cheapest one.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 12:15 PM
Response to Reply #68
83. Some Are Being Mass-Produced and Are Much Cheaper Than That
The EZ1, designed by Easy Racers and built by Sun Bicycles in Taiwan,
costs $499.
That is the cheapest bent I know of. It's a bit heavy. I haven't ridden one.

From there, the more you spend the lighter it gets, just like any other bicycle.

If you want something hand-built out of carbon fiber, it's more like $5000-6000.
Which is still a lot less than the cheapest car.
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killbotfactory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 11:56 AM
Response to Original message
23. The Oil companies are going to do to the nation
what enron did to california. And Cheney and Bush are going to be laughing it up all along the way. This is a smash and grab presidency.
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WinkyDink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 05:43 PM
Response to Reply #23
58. Smash and grab
They are the Mafia. Not a metaphor.
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Adenoid_Hynkel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 12:51 PM
Response to Original message
31. in a commuter society w/ no mass transit...
this will be the downfall of the nation

oh, and also thank those dimbulb politicians who sucked up to the chines dictators and got the butchers into the position to compete for the oil while we're at it
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 01:35 PM
Response to Reply #31
43. Yes, sucking up to the Chinese will bite us in the ass
The ramifications of giving them our manufacturing and tech and science has now given them the money and reins of power and they will use it against us. When the dollar tanks we will be shivering in our homes and the Mideast and others selling the oil will be accepting Chinese money as the new standard, not the dollar. This is gonna get bad
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phusion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 12:51 PM
Response to Original message
32. $80/gallon?
Is that bad copy editing or is he serious? Did he mean $80/barrel?

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ozone_man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 03:39 PM
Response to Reply #32
55. It had to be $80/barrel. n/t
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fshrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 12:55 PM
Response to Original message
34. Excellent.
Idiots will pay 200 bucks at the pump to fill her up. Oil industry, which has obviously acquired a final grip on everything by now, will continue to pump profit. The faster this tragicomedy ends the better.
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Occulus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 01:49 PM
Response to Original message
45. Hypothesis: Oil companies really6 do have an clean, abundant,
safe alternative to oil, and are only trying to soak everyone for every last dollar before they roll out some really new technology. At which point, they'll all say, "hey, what ya gonna do about it?"

It would fit the pattern of their behavior....
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mccoyn Donating Member (512 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 02:14 PM
Response to Reply #45
49. It would be a better time to roll out the new product.
Can you charge enough for a solar cell today to make a profit?

How much could you charge for a solar cell if oil/gas/natural gas prices were double or triple todays prices?

Should you introduce a product into a buyers market today when tomorrow will be a sellers market?
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4dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 01:57 PM
Response to Original message
47. WHY IS PETROCOLLAPSE IMMINENT ?
http://newsgateway.ca/McKillop_Petrocollapse.htm

WHY IS PETROCOLLAPSE IMMINENT ?

I intend to map out the reasons why we can be growingly confident that so-called "Petrocollapse" will start from 2006.

There are several other ‘volets’ or parts of the emerging 2006 Petrocollapse : notably the sequels to the war in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan, and the ongoing but mutating « Al Qaida » phenomenon. From a Hinduist, Buddhist or Jainist, or Confucian perspective or standpoint there is no question : the so-called Age of Gold is very far in the past and receding fast. This dying Petrocivilisation, like any other, is considered by itself to be in full and entropic degenerescence. This is the lot of any necrotic imperium.

Curiously or not, but fatalement for sure, almost any dead civilisation you can name was obsessed about « the end of time ». Ours is no exception, and there is every possible logic favouring that intrinsic pessimism ! In fact, in the case of our dying Petrocivilisation, the strategy is rather the denial of time. We live in a glorious eternal present, we are all young and beautiful thanks to botox, we are rich, we are happy, we have great leaders – and so we dont need time, thankyou.
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Bushwick Bill Donating Member (605 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 02:07 PM
Response to Reply #47
48. Termination of the Fossil Fuels Society
Based on today's intensifying trends, warning signs and an understanding of history, one must be ready to see the fossil-fueled phase come to an end most abruptly. When common practices cannot be maintained and too many people suddenly scurry for scant supplies, the desired resource dries up. This causes ramifications that quickly compound whatever triggered the crisis.
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/081605_world_stories.shtml
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Megahurtz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 03:04 PM
Response to Original message
52. Fuck That!
I'm going to start riding my bicycle and walking.
I could use some exersize anyway.
It especially helps to burn off all the stress from hearing the garbage this Administration hurls at us day after day.
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not fooled Donating Member (553 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 03:09 PM
Response to Original message
53. The only thing that will save us...
...or at least provide some relief is that the robber barons will lower the prices in time to prop up their 'puke whores before the '06 elections:eyes: :puke: :mad:
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Dyedinthewoolliberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 03:27 PM
Response to Original message
54. To paraphrase Lloyd Bridges
from the movie "Airplane", I knew I picked a good time to stop driving my car.... :)
Seriously friends, with a little forethought it can be done. You can use public transportation. It gets the job done. No more paying for gas, insurance, parking, license tabs, oil changes, etc.....
I realize not everyone is in the situation I am (single, kids grown and out, live close to work) but surely some others are. Unless we make moves towards being part of a solution, how will we ever solve the problem?
What say you? :shrug:
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BiggJawn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 09:42 AM
Response to Reply #54
78. Please, what is this "public transportation" I keep hearing about?
Sounds like a Good Thing, but where do I find it?
I hear about "trains". I have a lot of trains that go by here every day, but I wave at them to stop and pick me up, and they just wave back.
I hear about "busses", but the only busses here belong to the school, and they don't really go anywhere i need to go...

I would venture a guess that anyone who HAS mass transport available to them is already way ahead of you.

Sucks to live in rural areas.
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Robb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 05:28 PM
Response to Reply #78
90. I'm with you
I could walk, but 30 miles for groceries is a bit much.

I'm lucky I found a cheap enduro bike. Plus it will pay for itself in six months, less at the rate gas is going up.

Of course, as I see it, the cost of gas pales in significance to the cost of diesel fuel, which carries everything people buy.

I'm not sure rail is a solution, either, without a substantial and expensive infrastructure re-work.

Maybe we're just plain hosed.
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 06:00 PM
Response to Original message
60. I rode my bike to the grocery store today because my car's in the shop.
Good thing I only live 3 miles from work - time to start riding a LOT more.

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Deja Q Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 10:45 PM
Response to Original message
62. It ain't $3 yet... but people have no practical choice BUT to buy...
So this shit of "because people will buy it" is a load of bunk.

The same excuse justifies the high price of baseball tickets. That is fair.

Gas isn't. They're hanging us by our collective testicles for gas and teleportation is far from being a reality!
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Giant Robot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 03:05 AM
Response to Original message
65. Getting scary here folks...
So we just put $10 into my wife's car. It may seem like a small amount to many out there, but its a lot to us right now. She got just about 1/4 of a tank. Yeah. That will last long. What will happen to their profits when we, and probably many other families, simply cannot afford to put gas in our cars any more? I know for a fact we are almost at that point, and we cannot be alone. I find it absolutely astounding and infuriating that we may not be able to survive this catastrophe, and these wingnuts are positively giddy over it!! No really. I'm getting scared guys. We live in northern Michigan, and not too far from work. Walking in the summer is wonderful, but our summer is very limited, and winter lasts a much longer amount of time. Walking or biking in below zero weather or with 3 foot drifts really is not an option. As prone to hyperbole as I am, I am not kidding about those weather conditions. Oh yeah, and here's a surprise, public transportation is a joke. I said it a couple times already, but I really am scared.
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FreeStateDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 11:57 AM
Response to Reply #65
81. Working class & working poor are being really hurt but media ignore's it.
Where is our democratic leadership, has our party completely sold out to big oil and forgotten the heart of the Democratic Party - working class Americans? Shame on the Democratic Party for not standing up and exposing this exploitation by speculators and big oil. Why should we work to elect democrats when they roll over for corporate America?
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Megahurtz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #65
85. Believe me you are NOT alone.
At least we have public transportation here (prices going up though, and even that's getting expensive.) Not much difference between that and putting 10 bucks in your tank.:shrug:

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Ice4Clark Donating Member (466 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 04:31 AM
Response to Original message
66. He was on WI NPR recently and I listened to him. Here's
the link of the show. He talks about what drives the market.

LINK
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hadrons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 01:55 PM
Response to Reply #66
87. Ice4Clark, can you check the link again, it doesn't work ....
I would love to hear it
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Ice4Clark Donating Member (466 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 04:37 AM
Response to Original message
67. Here's a summary of his upcoming new book (due Oct 05)
BLACK GOLD STRANGLEHOLD

The Myth of Scarcity and the Politics of Oil

Jerome R. Corsi, Ph.D. and Craig R. Smith

Experts estimate that Americans consume more than 25 percent of the world's oil but have control over less than 3 percent of its proven oil supply. This unbalanced pattern of consumption makes it possible for foreign governments, corrupt political leaders, terrorist organizations, and oil conglomerates to hold the economy and the citizens of the United States in a virtual stranglehold. There is no greater proof of this than the direct relationship between skyrocketing gas prices and the explosion of wealth among those who control the world's supply of oil.

In Black Gold Stranglehold, Jerome Corsi and Craig Smith expose the fraudulent science that has made America so vulnerable: the belief that oil is a fossil fuel and that it is a finite resource. This book reveals the conclusions reached by Dr. Thomas Gold, a professor at Cornell University, in his seminal book The Deep Hot Biosphere: The Myth of Fossil Fuels (Copernicus Books, 1998) and accepted by many in the scientific community that oil is not a product of fossils and prehistoric forests but rather the bio-product of a continuing biochemical reaction below the earth's surface that is brought to attainable depths by the centrifugal forces of the earth's rotation.

Jerome Corsi explores the international and domestic politics of oil production and consumption, including the wealth and power of major oil conglomerates, the manipulation of world economies by oil-producing nations and rogue terrorist regimes, and the shortsightedness of those who endorse expensive conservation efforts while rejecting the use of the oil reserves currently controlled by the U.S. government.

As an expert in tangible assets, Craig Smith provides an understanding of the history of America's dangerous dissociation of the dollar with precious—and truly scarce—metals such as gold and the devastation that would be inflicted on the U.S. economy if Middle Eastern countries are able to follow through with current plans to make the euro the standard currency for oil instead of U.S. dollars.

Black Gold Stranglehold is a thoughtful work that is certain to dramatically change the debate on oil consumption, oil dependence, and oil availability.

JEROME R. CORSI, Ph.D., is the author of Atomic Iran and the coauthor of the New York Times #1 bestseller Unfit for Command. The author of many articles and books, he received his Ph.D. from Harvard University and lives in New Jersey.

CRAIG R. SMITH is the chairman of the board of Swiss America Trading Corporation, one of the largest and most respected investment firms in the U.S. He is an author, commentator, and frequent radio and television guest. He and his family live in Arizona.
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salin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 05:58 AM
Response to Original message
69. While this would be awful - it would also
lay bare the fraud of the GOP "Energy Policy". As in - bush griped for several years that Congress wouldn't pass his policy - and he claimed it would do all sorts of wonderful things for consumers (cough, cough) - then the new storyline would go: So the pres got his republican policy through and - prices went from 2.20 to 3.00 to 5.00 to ???? Sorta makes transparent to those still to blind to see that the GOP views taxpayer money as their private fund for corporate cronies - while the taxpayers not only do not receive the benefits but are actually deeply hurt by those policies.
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SKKY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 06:26 AM
Response to Original message
70. This could all be moot if Dean Kamen would get off his lazy ass...
...and hurry up with the Sterling Engine.
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Catfight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 07:29 AM
Response to Original message
72. Inflation will bust it first, the economy will rapidly decline if oil gets
much higher. American cannot sustain this pressure. The bubble is pushed to the max...close your hands over your ears, I hear a big pop coming.
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tom_paine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 04:55 PM
Response to Original message
89. One wonders if the Bush Family understands what other parasites do
Even th simplest tapeworm knows it cannot consume so much of it's host that the host dies.

As the Bush Crime Family operates on the "monkeys and cocaine" theory that most dictators and crime families operate under, I am not sure they are as savvy as a tapeworm on this issue.

Because they want it ALL and they want it NOW. They, being the True Rulers of Amerika, DESERVE IT NOW.

So, we will see if the Bush Crime Family and their partners the Saudis, understand what the tiny-brained tapeworm does.

Time will tell.
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pinniped Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 10:36 PM
Response to Original message
91. One does not need to be Nostradamus to predict high gas prices when...
the POS is in charge of fleecing us. They are the best.

--An oil expert and author who correctly forecast $3 per gallon gasoline in the United States this year says the price will reach $5 next year.--

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woodsprite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-19-05 09:58 AM
Response to Original message
99. When we budgeted for vacation this year, we saved expecting $4/gal.
Edited on Fri Aug-19-05 09:59 AM by woodsprite
My suspicion is they want it up to european levels ($6/$8 per gal).
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