STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 19 August

[ozymandius]

Friday August 19, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 155 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 242 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 306 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1363
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 18, 2005

Dow... 10,554.93 +4.22 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq... 2,136.08 -9.07 (-0.42%)
S&P 500... 1,219.02 -1.22 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.22% -0.06 (-1.33%)
Gold future... 444.70 -0.50 (-0.11%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Important Top Will Be Signaled by Broken Necklines

Since completion of the 2004 top, the major stock market indices have been in tradable ranges while the small and mid cap indices have continued to move upward. At the moment, it appears that an intermediate term stock market top may be in; yet with the indices hanging around their late ’04, early ’05 highs, and oil in the midst of a long-overdue correction, it is difficult to declare this stock market rally over. If however, the intermediate term stock market highs have already been seen, a more important question is whether the market will remain in an intermediate term trading range, or shift back into a long term bear market. My opinion is that this can be determined by the behavior of formerly leading stocks when they reach their technical support levels. The trading range from early ’04 to the present has been characterized by individual stocks whip-sawing apparent neckline breakdowns where technical support levels appeared to have been broken. Yet, following these apparent breakdowns, the stocks practically always rallied back above support in a sharp and tradable manner. There is some (very limited) evidence to suggest that this pattern may be coming to an end which I’ll present in this article. In addition, I’ll look at the key intermediate term technical patterns of the major indices.

-cut-

S&P 500

The S&P 500 appeared to have broken its March 2005 high; yet that turned out to be a whipsaw. The S&P 500 now sits less than 1% below its March high. Earlier this month, I said that the high had to be taken out decisively to suggest a “new high” was made. Similarly the index has not yet broken decisively below 1229 either, and therefore, the rally must still be given the benefit of the doubt for now.



-cut-

Dow Jones Industrial Average

While I will not site you chapter and verse technical analysis on the Dow Industrials, I will say that a look at the one year daily chart shows an index that is overbought, erratic, tired, and not poised for a move higher. Don ’t you agree? A look at the three popular moving averages (20-EMA, 50-SMA, and 200-SMA) all clustered within a few points of each other, coupled with the MACD (12,26,9) showing loss of momentum, suggests a sharp move down may occur soon. A close above 10,750 for the Dow negates this observation, obviously.



more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[loudsue]

3. Good Mornin', Ozy!!

Looks like you and I are the only ones up at this hour!! :donut:

The difference is that I'm STILL up, because I've been working all night, and you prolly just rolled out a while ago from a good night's sleep!

It's going to be another kewl day at the casino for you guys, but for now, I think I'll go take a nap!

I'm not complaining, really: I'm glad to finally have work. But, these days, independent contractors have the workload of a dozen or more people, and we do the work, or the big guys send us home! Sometimes I feel like us "little guys" are supposed to carry these multi-billion dollar companies on our backs, and sometimes at our own expense.

What ever happened to labor unions? 'Member those dinosaurs? They formerly made sure that nobody got worked to death!

Anyway, it's 5:30 a.m. in the Central Time Zone, and I'm off to snooze. :boring:

Happy dice rolling!

loudsnooze

[ozymandius]

5. Good morning loudsue!

:donut:

Thanks for checking in after carrying the weight of the world on your shoulders. You said the word "contractors". I hope this means you're being paid with duffelbags full of cash.

Rest easy. I'm away to check what economic swamp water we'll have to slog through today.

Ozy :hi:

[AnneD]

29. Morning Marketeers

:donut: Job #2 is a nightshift job, so I feel your pain loudsue. I go 10-6 and 7:45-3:30. Yes, it sucks but I am starting to make progress on the bills. I have 2 words for you sue 'Red Bull'. And while my day is off to a good start, can anyone explain to me how there can be a 10 CENT difference in gas prices at the stations that are on opposite sides of the street? Free market my Aunt Mildred's bloomers! Happy Hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

2. Crude Oil Prices Spike on Supply Issues

BUDAPEST, Hungary - Oil prices rose nearly $1 on Friday, bouncing back from lows this week as markets reacted to a fire at a massive refining complex in Venezuela and developments in Ecuador, where protests slowed production.

-cut-

"I do expect to see new highs and I would not be too surprised to see oil prices breach the $70 a barrel soon," Ebner said.

Light sweet crude for September delivery gained 89 cents to $64.16 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The contract settled at $63.27 a barrel Thursday, ending four days of declines after reaching a new intraday high of $67.10 on Aug. 12. The September contracts expire Monday.

more

[54anickel]

17. Ecuador troops move as protest hits oil exports

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20050819/bs_ft/fto081920050400156758;_ylt=ArRx.YTE5_UqWQt_qlmreo72ULEF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

Ecuadorean troops took control of government buildings in two Amazon provinces and reinforced security at oil wells on Thursday as they moved to quell protests that have slashed crude production and exports, a senior officer said. Acting after President Alfredo Palacio declared a state of emergency in the provinces of Sucumbios and Orellana late on Wednesday, security forces fired tear gas at protesters in the eastern jungle city of Lago Agrio, in images shown on local television.

The disturbances, which are throttling the country's principal source of export income, are the worst faced by Palacio since he came to power in April. Ecuador's crude oil output has collapsed since protesters invaded oil camps, sabotaged equipment and blocked highways on Monday. The protesters are demanding foreign oil companies operating in the region provide financing for infrastructure projects and more job opportunities.

State-owned Petroecuador's production has fallen to zero from its usual 201,000 barrels per day, Palacio said in a televised address to the nation in which he blamed the protest on "a diabolical plot" by political enemies. The country would also import fuel to meet local needs, Palacio said, without saying how much. The company earlier declared force majeure on its oil exports, a contractual clause that allows it to stop shipments due to events beyond its control. Petroecuador usually exports 144,000 barrels per day. Most of Ecuador's oil exports go to the United States. Production by private oil companies has also plunged.

snip>

'DIABOLICAL PLOT' Palacio was appointed after Congress fired President Lucio Gutierrez during mass protests against his interference with the Supreme Court. Labor Minister Galo Chiriboga accused Gutierrez, currently in exile in Peru, of being behind the Amazon unrest. But in his address to the nation, Palacio stopped short of naming the political rivals he believes are behind the protests which he said threatened "the stability of the Ecuadorean state." "This is part of a diabolical plot which I have denounced in the past and has been a long time in the planning," Palacio said. The state of emergency restricts rights to free association and expression and restricts people's movements. It also allows the government to censure news media working in the area hit by the protest. Demonstrators also want the government to renegotiate contracts with international oil companies, including Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY - news) Corp., Petrobras and EnCana (NYSE:ECA - news) Corp., to raise state participation.

more...

[54anickel]

43. Ecuador seeks oil loan as defense minister quits

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N19700938.htm

QUITO, Ecuador, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Ecuador's defense minister resigned on Friday during protests which have crippled oil production and forced the country to ask Venezuela for a loan of crude oil so it can keep up exports, officials said.

Ecuador will seek a $400 million emergency loan from the Latin American Reserve Fund to avoid balance of payments problems resulting from the protest in two provinces and import $140 million worth of fuel, Economy Minister Magdalena Barreiro said.

The protests pushed U.S. crude oil futures up $2 above $65 a barrel in New York on Friday. Ecuador is South America's fifth largest producer of crude oil and, after Venezuela, is the second-largest South American supplier of oil to the United States.

President Alfredo Palacio declared a state of emergency on Wednesday and ordered troops to restore order in Sucumbios and Orellana provinces where protesters began to invade oil camps, sabotage equipment and block highways on Monday.

But the worst crisis for Palacio since he took office in April worsened on Friday when one of the men in charge of the state of emergency, Defense Minister Solon Espinoza, resigned.

more...

[ozymandius]

4. Indicators See Sluggish Rise in July

NEW YORK - An important gauge of future economic activity rose a modest 0.1 percent in July, suggesting that higher oil prices and rising interest rates are tempering the nation's economic growth prospects.

In Washington, meanwhile, the Labor Department said applications for unemployment benefits rose by 6,000 to 316,000 last week, but were still at a level that indicates a strong job market.

The figures released Thursday indicate that the U.S. economy is expanding and is likely to continue doing so. Still, fears are increasing that higher oil prices — on top of the
Federal Reserve's interest rate increases — could dampen all-important consumer spending as the year progresses.

"We have headwinds from high energy prices," said Gary R. Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis.

more

[ozymandius]

6. How Will Home Boom End?

-cut-

"It's not going to be a big dramatic event," says William Apgar, senior scholar at Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies.

Unlike stock prices, the housing market can't collapse in a few days. People can dump their stocks almost instantly, but it often takes months to sell a house.

In past housing busts in California, New England and elsewhere, many owners who couldn't get what they considered a reasonable price yanked their houses off the market. The number of transactions plunged but prices fell only gradually, often over several years.

Still, that's little reassurance for Americans who are worried that they bought at the top of the market or for those waiting for prices to ease before jumping in. And the end of the boom is likely to be painful for many people. Among the most vulnerable: people who may have to sell in a weak market because of a job loss or transfer; those with little or no equity in their homes and big mortgages; and those counting on big gains in home equity to make up for a lack of retirement savings.

more

[ozymandius]

7. Cracks in the Ceiling

Foreclosures, Builder Stocks, 'Flip This House'
May Warn of Deflating Housing Market

Mark Gongloff: If you're trying to find a slow leak in a tire, you can submerge it in water and look for tiny bubbles of escaping air. That may be the best way to look for signs of a deflating housing market, too.

After all, just going by the big indicators, the housing market still looks plump. Sales of pre-owned homes, the bulk of the housing, hit record pace in June, with prices posting their biggest gain since the Carter administration. But there are tiny bubbles escaping, which shouldn't make you feel happy or fine (apologies to Don Ho) about the boom.

-cut-

David Gaffen: At least three television shows today -- one on the A&E channel, no less -- extol the virtues of buying, renovating and selling houses for a quick profit. TV shows about "flipping" is the real-estate equivalent of what JFK's dad, Joseph Kennedy Sr., said about the 1929 stock scene: It's time to sell when the shoeshine boy starts talking about the market.

The Learning Channel has "Property Ladder," hosted by "veteran real-estate investor and flipper Kirsten Kemp"; its sister network, Discovery Home, has "Flip That House." That competes with the just-as-imaginatively named "Flip This House" on A&E (we could spend all day arguing whether flipping is an art, entertainment or both). All three premiered within the last two months. And why not? Housing has been a terrific investment -- Freddie Mac says the annualized five-year rate of home price appreciation was 8.38% as of first quarter, the best it has been nationwide since 1982. Still, the idea of several TV shows explaining how Joe Sixpack can make easy money in real estate through what amounts to speculation should trip an alarm or two.

more

[1932]

15. In Irrational Exuberance, Robert Shiller says the media plays a big part

in creating bubbles.

I guess those three shows encouraging people to flip houses as an investment strategy are a good example of what Shiller writes about.

[54anickel]

10. Slaughter Of The Housing Speculators

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/benson/benson081905.html

snip>

First quarter 2005 statistics indicate, nationwide, there are 440,000 new homes for sale and 2,400,000 used homes for sale. By recent historical standards, these numbers account for a 4-month supply and do not look worrisome. However, given what is really going on, this is about as safe as saying "if you see ice on a pond, it must be safe to walk on". The latest HUD statistics show that of the 107,775,000 occupied housing units, 74,488,000 - or over 69 percent - are owned (not rented). This level of home ownership is at an all time record high. In achieving this record home ownership, the following has occurred: Sub-prime buyers now account for more than 10 percent; Another 10 percent can only buy with a "negative amortization mortgage" (very popular in California where 40 percent of mortgages are negative amortization); Up to two-thirds of mortgages are Interest Only ("IO") or Adjustable Rate ("ARM"); Second homes now account for 8 percent of mortgages; and, 38 percent of homes this year have been purchased with less than 5 percent down (if this doesn't reflect scrapping the bottom of the barrel for homeowners, nothing ever would). Yet, household earnings haven't kept up!

If housing speculators stop buying, who's left to buy? The average American with a job has already bought. America has been creating new homes faster than new jobs, and it has been the home speculator, and second home investor, holding up the market for at least the past year. (The latest reports show that the time it takes to sell a home has increased, and price rises have been trailing off.)

One of the biggest problems I see for our housing speculator is the forward supply of new homes they have already been locked into. Certainly, on the east and west coasts and in Las Vegas - and other frothy vacation and major markets - high rise after high rise are coming out of the ground. Ivana Trump (long divorced from "the Donald") is marketing the Trump luxury brand name for a high-rise building going up with her name in Las Vegas where units will begin at $550,000 and top out at $35 million for the penthouse. (In South Florida alone, my wife and I recently drove south from Fort Lauderdale to South Beach and we counted over 50 new developments in various stages of construction on the coast road). There are twelve high-rises going up in West Palm Beach, and another twenty four jumbo projects in downtown Miami. Every single one of these projects is priced out of range for the middle class buyer.

There is another "dark side" to speculating in real estate. Hundreds of thousands of units that have been sold in advance by developers to speculators. This method is used by developers so they can get the construction finance they need. The speculator is responsible for the purchase but he won't actually "buy" the unit until the project is complete and the unit has a Certificate of Occupancy. Therefore, the sale will not be counted as a sale until the date of closing! (Moreover, the developer has gotten the speculator to sign an agreement preventing him from reselling the unit for at least a year - after the speculator has taken occupancy - so the developer won't be selling against himself. This leaves the speculator holding the bag, but they seem willing to take the risk.

more...

[54anickel]

16. Die, die, monster home! Die!

http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/18/real_estate/monster_home_backlash/index.htm

Homes are bigger than ever. Now there's a backlash against the 'mansionization' of America.
August 18, 2005: 4:08 PM EDT
By Les Christie, CNN/Money staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The American home is getting bigger. And fatter. And, to some, uglier. Now, towns are fighting back.

Chevy Chase, Md., an upscale suburb of Washington, recently announced a six-month moratorium on home construction to make time to examine how to deal with the proliferation of oversized single-family houses.

Call them what you will -- starter castles, McMansions, monster homes -- these houses have become increasingly visible in metropolitan landscapes. Many residents hate them.

Todd Hoffman, town manager, said that more than 500 Chevy Chasers, a significant number in a community of just over 1,000 homes, signed a petition expressing their "concern about the effects of 'mansionization.'"

more...

[Mnemosyne]

8. Great toon Oz! Hope

your child is better.

Thanks for all your great info!
V

[54anickel]

9. Daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i

Last trade 88.47 Change -0.12 (-0.14%)

Settle 88.59 Settle Time 23:36

Open 88.58 Previous Close 88.59

High 88.90 Low 88.46


Philly Fed Fuels Further Dollar Gains

The US dollar continues to strengthen and looks set to reverse its recent multi-week losses against the major currencies. Its recent woes against the euro were especially pronounced as Europe’s single currency improved vis-à-vis the greenback for the past six consecutive weeks. Behind today’s gains for the dollar was a combination of positive fundamental data as well as technically-driven movement.

This afternoon’s release of the Philadelphia Fed survey of regional manufacturing came in higher than expected at 17.5 in August from a 9.6 reading in July. This was the highest reading since April and well above consensus expectations of 13.5. A closer look at the numbers behind the general economic index reveals an improvement of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region as new orders jumped to 19.8 from 5.0 and employment almost doubled to 6.3 from 3.4. The importance of the Philadelphia Fed survey is that, historically, it has served as a good gauge of what is happening in the manufacturing sector on a national basis.

As the chart above illustrates, the Philadelphia Fed’s general economic index is closely correlated with the national index of manufacturing activity, as reported in the ISM Manufacturing survey, which is highly regarded as one of the best gauges of economic activity in the US. The most recent ISM report for July increased to 56.6 – its highest level of the year – and with this encouraging regional survey out of Philadelphia (as well as the robust level of the New York Fed’s Empire survey released earlier this week) there is a good chance that the next ISM report (due out on September 1) will show continued improvement.

A drop below $1.22 and $1.80 for the euro and sterling, respectively, triggered technical movements downward for each currency as stop-loss orders were implemented. The less than stellar improvement of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator for the US, which came in at 0.1% – less than the 0.2% the market expected and well below the upwardly revised 1.2% increase in June – helped stem further losses of the major currencies against the dollar, but the better than expected Philly Fed data (as previously discussed) has put the dollar back on track to register further gains across the board today.

With no major data left to be released this week, consolidation will likely be the theme for tomorrow as the market looks ahead to next week’s release of housing and consumer confidence data out of the US.

more...


Forex - US dollar slightly higher in late Asian trade in follow through buying

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2005/08/19/afx2185822.html

snip>

Dealers noted there was some light profit-taking early in the Asian session but the broadly upbeat view of the greenback saw it fend off a sharper retreat and retain its firm tone.

'The dollar held its gains but did little else on Friday with no US economic data to look forward to,' UBS currency dealers said in a client note.

'The US dollar appears poised for further gains, with the euro-dollar vulnerable towards 1.2080 usd,' the UOB strategists said.

UBS dealers agreed saying: 'The euro remains at risk of further losses with the market still long (the dollar).'

'There are sell stops from 1.2140 usd down to 1.2100 and we think another 0.5 pct decline is likely,' they added.

more...

[54anickel]

11. A Global Inventory Pop? (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050819-fri.html#anchor0

Inventory adjustments have long dominated the ups and downs of the business cycle. As the evidence rolls in, it appears that the major economies of the world moved in lock-step precision to prune inventories in the second quarter of 2005. Most forecasters now believe that adjustment clears the decks for a strong cyclical snapback in the months ahead. That may be wishful thinking. In the context of an energy shock, any inventory-related impetus to economic growth may turn out to be surprisingly muted.

The data are fairly conclusive in suggesting that an inventory correction has just occurred in the three largest economies of the world -- the US, Japan, and Europe. In the case of the United States, private stocks were liquidated at a -$6.4 billion annual rate in 2Q05 (in chained 2000 dollars) -- a sharp reversal following four quarters of annualized inventory accumulation at a $56 billion average rate. According to US government statisticians, this swing in inventory investment from accumulation to liquidation knocked 2.3 percentage points off annual GDP growth in the quarter just ended. In Japan, it was a similar story. Following a build-up of stocks in the first quarter of calendar-year 2005, an IT-related inventory correction is estimated to have knocked 2.0 percentage points off annualized GDP growth in the spring period. This masked increasingly impressive underlying strength in Japanese final demand, which is estimated to have risen at a 3.1% annual rate in 2Q05. The European economy fits the same basic mold. While a detailed breakdown of pan-regional GDP statistics is not yet available for the quarter just ended, our Euro-zone team’s aggregation of the more accurate business surveys also points to an inventory correction. By Eric Chaney’s reckoning, Euroland business expectations of inventory positions, which had turned significantly excessive in March, are now viewed as much closer to normal -- hinting at an inventory adjustment that is on a par with that experienced by both the US and Japan.

In response to these cyclical developments on the inventory front, our economists around the world have turned decidedly more upbeat in their assessment of near-term growth prospects. Dick Berner thinks 3Q05 GDP growth in the US might even exceed 5%. Our Japan team has just upgraded its 2005-06 growth outlook by an average of 0.8 percentage point per year. Even our long pessimistic Euro-zone team has drawn comfort from the possibility of a near-term inventory snapback. These forecast upgrades make a good deal of sense in the context of a normal inventory cycle. In a firming final demand climate -- very much in evidence in the 2Q05 stats for the US, Japan, and even Europe -- inventory corrections are normally short-lived. Businesses respond to upbeat demand prospects typically by bringing production schedules back into closer alignment with firming sales -- triggering a growth-enhancing resumption of inventory accumulation. In the bigger inventory cycles, when stocks are liquidated sharply, you can even get a growth kick without renewed restocking; all that is needed is just a reduction in the pace of the inventory drawdown -- an outcome that cannot occur without a lifting of production levels.

There are two potential glitches to the case for a vigorous inventory snapback in the current period -- the first, and most important, being the energy shock. To the extent that sharply rising prices of energy products prompt any cutbacks in final demand or alter demand expectations by businesses, production adjustments could well be deferred. Recent signs of distress in the global retail business are worrisome in that regard. Early summer retail sales were on the soft side in the US and Europe, although slightly improved in Japan. These indications, in conjunction with ongoing energy-related concerns, do not provide an “all clear” for inventory-related production adjustments, in my view. A second consideration that might temper the classic inventory snapback is math: The degree of outright inventory liquidation was actually quite small in 2Q05. While the growth subtraction from the inventory adjustment was large, that’s mainly because the rates of accumulation were so rapid in the preceding quarters. The powerful snapbacks of the classic inventory cycle usually follow deep liquidation; for example, even in the mild US recession of 2000-01, destocking peaked out at an -$87 billion annual rate in 4Q01 -- more than ten times the magnitude of the decline just experienced in 2Q05. By contrast, shallow liquidation means businesses do not need to be all that aggressive in lifting production to bring destocking to an end. Recent experience in the US bears out that possibility: In the soft patch of 2Q03, fractional inventory liquidation was followed by a resumption of only modest restocking in the two quarters that followed -- underscoring a lingering caution on the part of US businesses at the time that may also make sense in today’s uncertain climate.

more...

[54anickel]

12. 9:48 and we're off

Dow 10,579.77 +24.84 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,135.33 -0.75 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,221.88 +2.86 (+0.23%)
10-yr Bond 4.238% +0.02
30-yr Bond 4.45% +0.02
NYSE Volume 176,441,000
Nasdaq Volume 164,357,000

9:40AM: Modest gains for the major indices at the start of trading, which is in keeping with the indication provided by the futures market.... Enthusiasm has been held in check, though, by rising oil prices (+$1.05 at $64.82/bbl) and spotty leadership... Coca-Cola (KO 44.42, +0.89) is making the most of a UBS upgrade to Buy from Neutral and is leading the Dow's opening gains...
9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.5. Bulls have maintained the upperhand in the futures market throughout the morning, which leaves the cash market poised for a positive start... Tech stocks are expected to provide some early leadership thanks to encouraging earnings reports from Autodesk (ADSK) and Marvell (MRVL), and Prudential's bullish backing of IBM (IBM)

8:47AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5.

8:18AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures market has retained its bullish bias, which leaves expectations intact for a positive start for the stock market. Early gains should be modest in scope, though, as pockets of weakness in the retail group, following another batch of cautious guidance for Q3, and a rebound in oil prices (+$1.03 at $64.30/bbl) are expected to act as a drag on the broader market.

7:50AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. It is an options expiration Friday and the early bias is a favorable one as the futures market is signaling a higher start for the cash market. A UBS upgrade of Coca-Cola (KO) to Buy from Neutral and an encouraging earnings report from software company Autodesk (ADSK) have contributed to the favorable tone and have overshadowed more disappointing...

[54anickel]

13. 10:42 and flyin' high - On a Friday? Must be a good weekend to be

holding stocks.

Dow 10,619.33 +64.40 (+0.61%)
Nasdaq 2,141.14 +5.06 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,224.26 +5.24 (+0.43%)
10-yr Bond 42.33 +0.17 (+0.40%)
30-yr Bond 44.36 +0.09 (+0.20%)
NYSE Volume 437,022,000
Nasdaq Volume 374,936,000

10:30AM : The indices have extended their reach into positive territory, aided by the outperformance of the energy services (+1.30%), materials (+0.75%) and industrial (+0.65%) sectors... Buying activity, though modest, is relatively broad-based as evidenced by the comfortable lead advancing issues hold over declining issues at the NYSE and Nasdaq (which is the opposite of what was witnessed Thursday)... IBM (IBM 83.19, +2.04) sits atop the list of Dow winners, as it responds to the bullish backing provided for its stock by Prudential this morning...
Elsewhere, Autodesk (ADSK 40.69, +2.34) is getting its just reward for a strong earnings report and reassuring outlook; ADSK is leading the gains for the Nasdaq 100, which is up 0.2%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1738/1066, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1467/1047

10:00AM : A positive, but somewhat sluggish start for the equity market as the indices move upward in guarded fashion... Sellers, though, have yet to make their presence felt to any great degree, with the exception of some individual situations like AutoZone (AZO 96.41, -1.88), which was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Piper Jaffray, and Northwest Airlines (NWAC 5.39, -0.09), which is rumored to be headed for a bankruptcy filing in the event it can't win neccesary concessions from its mechanics union over the weekend....

Overall gains are modest, but at this juncture, all 10 economic sectors are in positive territory... Energy Services (+0.88%) leads the pack as it is benefitting from today's jump in crude prices...NYSE Adv/Dec 1421/1148, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1135/1182

[Roland99]

25. Well, hey. Gas has dropped $0.05 this week. Time to BUY! BUY! BUY!

Hey, someone get Britt Hume on the phone. A "terror attack" on U.S. ships. I wanna buy some stocks!

[54anickel]

14. CAFTA rhymes with NAFTA

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=45742

I'm a solid capitalist, one who was once a staunch advocate of free trade. However...

In 1992, when discussions of the North America Free Trade Agreement were running hot and heavy, I sensed something was amiss. Debate on this mammoth undertaking became particularly animated and surely polarized during the Presidential debates that year. Frankly, Ross Perot made a lot of sense in his criticism of what in the not distant future would become a fait accompli.

NAFTA advocates excused away Perot's negative views as an attempt to hurt his perceived arch enemy, then-incumbent President George Bush The First. But much of what Perot was talking about made much more sense, at least to me, than what was coming from either Messrs. Bush or Gore.

For one thing, and an exceptionally crucial one, it was obvious few people in Congress had read this voluminous document. What sealed the deal, though, as far as I was concerned, was listening to Al Gore in particular talk about how America and its workers would be protected from potential abuse -- after the fact -- because the United States would assure it when negotiating NAFTA's so-called "side agreements." These involved hugely critical areas to the United States -- to Canada also -- ones covering pollution, working conditions, etc.

And another selling point of the day from which I derived great discomfort was the idea that an especially good reason for championing NAFTA, although one having little directly to do with trade, was the very beneficial impact it would have in stemming the flow of illegal immigrants from Mexico. After all, wages and the standard of living south of the US border would rise so fast that Mexicans simply no longer would want to flood into the United States. Of course, illegal immigration from Mexico is much worse now than it was then.

more...

[54anickel]

18. Rice Warns China to Make Major Economic Changes

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/19/politics/19china.html

WASHINGTON, Aug. 18 - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned this week that China must make significant structural changes in its economic policies, lest it remain "a problem for the international economy."

In an interview on Wednesday, Ms. Rice also laid out the administration's concerns about China's military buildup, its human rights record and its restrictions on religious freedom. Her unusually sharp criticism was a clear indication of the administration's ambivalence and frustration with China, even as officials prepare for a state visit next month by the president of China, Hu Jintao, his first visit since taking office in 2003. In her speeches and news conferences, Ms. Rice usually maintains a positive tone about China. She often says relations with the government in Beijing "are at their best ever."

During the interview this week at the State Department with reporters and an editor of The New York Times, which coincided with a review of diplomatic plans for the fall that she has been conducting with her top aides, Ms. Rice took time to explain why China seems to present such a diplomatic quandary.

"The relationship with China is just big and complicated, and it's got good parts and it's got not so good parts," she said. "But what we are trying to stay focused on is the understanding that China is going to be influential in international politics one way or another. It's a major power, and it's going to be an even more major power."

more...

[Doctor_J]

27. Like they would listen to anything this misadministration says

:eyes:

[54anickel]

32. Yep, but it makes Shrubco sound tough to their looney base. I saw

an import SUV (can't remember which brand) the other day. Had one of them "Support the Troops" ribbon magnets, a "W 04" bumper sticker and a license plate bracket that said "Boycott China Support American Jobs". The fool driving was pulling out of a WalMart parking lot. :banghead:

[54anickel]

40. Russia and China join forces to challenge US dominance

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/article306883.ece

Ten thousand Russian and Chinese troops were preparing to invade the Shandong Peninsula in the Yellow Sea yesterday in a first joint military exercise, seen as a reaction to US dominance of world affairs.

The eight-day exercise, called Peace Mission 2005, will use air, sea and land forces to simulate a mission stabilising a restive country, and marks a new friendly phase in a bilateral relationship that has often been characterised by open hostility.

Analysts have pointed to opportunistic reasons behind the new relationship, with China keen to buy Russian oil, gas and weaponry and Moscow keen to sell.

Both countries want to send a message to Washington that the world is no longer unipolar but bipolar and that the world's largest country (Russia) and the world's most populous country (China) have common interests.

more...

[54anickel]

19. Fed adrift at sea with faulty rudder

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/5561717.html

Alan Greenspan, chairman of America's Federal Reserve, often has been called "the most powerful man in the world," and those who think of him this way have not been joking. He is, indeed, the mightiest of the world's central bankers, an influential group by any measure. But lately Greenspan has seemed not powerful but impotent. Last week the Fed under his direction raised interest rates for the 10th time since June 2004. And yet monetary policy is no tighter than it was -- thanks to lower bond yields.

Central bankers often are viewed as drivers or pilots of their national economies. Commentators urge them to put their foot on the accelerator, to tap the brakes, or to aim for a soft landing. Yet in reality they have more in common with early sea-faring navigators. Like them, central bankers lack reliable maps and compasses. Because of statistical lags and huge uncertainty, they do not know where the economy is today, let alone where it is heading. Some of the policy dilemmas they face (e.g., whether they should try to prick a housing bubble) are the equivalent of not knowing whether the Earth is flat or round. Now on top of this, today's "navigators" have a big new problem: their interest-rate rudder appears to have jammed.

Judged by the obsession of financial analysts and newspapers with the meetings of the Fed's key policymaking committee, one would conclude that America's federal funds rate is the most important price (i.e., of money) in the world. Yet it matters less than most people believe. Economies are driven by overall financial conditions, which also depend on long-term bond yields, exchange rates and share prices, none of which are controlled by the Fed. The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, which incorporates these three factors along with short-term rates, suggests that overall monetary conditions are roughly the same today as they were when the Fed started to raise rates in June 2004. Although bond yields have edged up during the past two months, they still are lower than before the Fed started to tighten -- indeed, they are unusually low in real terms -- offsetting the rise in short-term rates.

Long-term bond yields have more influence on America's economy than do short-term rates, not least because most Americans still have fixed-rate mortgages. Low yields thus are frustrating the Fed's effort to tighten monetary conditions. Despite the rise in short-term rates during the past year, America's GDP growth is well above trend, and although consumer prices remain tame for now, slowing productivity and a strengthening labor market could push up inflation. But the economy is unlikely to slow until the housing market cools, and that is unlikely to happen without higher bond yields.

more...

[54anickel]

20. MCI to close unit in Alpharetta

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/0805/18bizmci.html

MCI plans to shutter a call center in Alpharetta, idling nearly 600 workers as part of a trio of closings that will claim about 1,100 jobs in Georgia, Maryland and Iowa.

Virginia-based MCI, which is in the process of being acquired by Verizon Communications, told workers about the changes at the end of July. They'll keep their jobs through September.

The losses in Alpharetta will cut MCI's employee numbers there to about 1,000, said MCI spokeswoman Stefanie Scott. After the changes, the long-distance carrier will employ about 1,500 in Georgia, most of them in metro Atlanta.

The closure was disclosed on the Georgia Department of Labor's Web site Wednesday. According to a letter MCI sent to the Labor Department in late July, the company will cut 587 jobs. Of those, 529 are telemarketing positions. The rest include 12 managerial jobs and 32 supervisor slots.

more...

[54anickel]

21. Hollinger, Two Executives Indicted

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/4311659/c_4311679?f=home_todayinfinance

Prosecutors charge that the defendants engaged in a series of secret transactions "designed to enrich certain corporate officers by funneling payments disguised as non-competition fees" to themselves and to a company they controlled.

Stephen Taub, CFO.com
August 19, 2005

Federal prosecutors have charged two former executives of U.S.-based newspaper holding company Hollinger International Inc. and a privately held Canadian company with fraudulently diverting more than $32 million through a complex series of self-dealing transactions.

A seven-count indictment charged F. David Radler, the former publisher of the Chicago Sun-Times; Mark S. Kipnis, the top in-house lawyer for Hollinger International; and The Ravelston Corp. with cheating shareholders in the United States and Canada, as well as Canadian tax authorities, according to an announcement from Patrick J. Fitzgerald, U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois.

Fitzgerald's announcement accused the defendants of engaging in a series of secret transactions, in connection with the sale of various newspaper publishing groups in the United States, "designed to enrich certain corporate officers by funneling payments disguised as non-competition fees to a company they controlled, as well as to themselves individually, at the expense of Hollinger's public shareholders and corporate assets."

The transactions involved Hollinger International, a Chicago-based holding company, and Toronto-based Hollinger Inc., whose primary asset was its controlling interest in the holding company.

more...

[54anickel]

22. Stock market's gains dent bond rally

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B5697ADDC%2DB42D%2D49C0%2DB13D%2DEE3560C6F2BC%7D

snip>

An economic data vacuum forced traders to look to other financial markets for clues on the direction of government notes and bonds. Most observers cited thin volume typical of summer Fridays and as many of the week's winners took profits after a volatile few days packed with mixed reports on inflation. See the Economics and Politics page.

"Gains in equities, in spite of a rebound in oil prices, provided some impetus for bond traders to take some chips off the table," said bond market analysts at Action Economics, in an update for clients posted on their Web site.

In late-morning trading, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down 7/32, or a little more than $2.25 for each $1,000 worth of securities, at 100 4/32.

The drop in price lifted its yield, a key influence on mortgage and corporate borrowing rates, to 4.24% vs. 4.21% on Thursday. The note hadn't closed this low since July 28, according to Federal Reserve data.

The stock market's improvement led investors away from the more conservative returns of the bond market.

more...

[54anickel]

23. IRS Investigates Municipal Swap Advisers Over Fees

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aLwUUex6op2A&refer=us

Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Internal Revenue Service is investigating whether financial advisers to states and municipal governments made excessive fees on interest-rate swap contracts or allowed banks to make inflated commissions.

The IRS is examining 20 to 30 transactions across the U.S., said Charles Anderson, manager of field operations for the IRS's tax-exempt bond office. It wants to see if advisers negotiated swaps with banks, resulting in deals that deprived the federal government of money it is due, Anderson said.

He said the probe is looking at advisers and the investment bankers who frequently do business with them.

``We're going to be looking at a lot of deals they did because we are not very confident that they're above some hanky panky,'' Anderson said. He wouldn't identify the advisers being probed.

Anderson said internal response at the IRS to an Aug. 3 Bloomberg News story reporting that Jefferson County, Alabama, spent $45 million too much on swap fees, sparked interest in the investigation. ``We got so many calls internally about, What are you doing on swap fees?''' he said.

more...

[54anickel]

24. Brazil's Stocks, Bonds, Currency Tumble on Palocci Report

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=ak3isntKfE_g&refer=latin_america

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's stocks, bonds and currency tumbled against the dollar after a report alleging Finance Minister Antonio Palocci took bribes as a mayor in the 1990s.

The report, on Brazil newswire Broadcast, cited Sao Paulo state prosecutors saying Rogerio Buratti, an aide to Palocci when he was mayor of Ribeirao Preto in the 1990s, testified that Palocci received 50,000 reais ($20,362) a month from companies in charge of the city's sewage contracts.

``The problem is that Palocci is the man carrying the economic policy,'' said Ricardo Campos, who helps manage $4.1 billion of assets for Hedging-Griffo Asset Management in Sao Paulo. ``It's all what the market was concerned about.''

Palocci's spokesman, Marcelo Netto, didn't return phone calls made by Bloomberg to his mobile phone seeking a comment. Palocci said in a statement last week he's cooperating with prosecutors in a probe of Buratti, who is in jail on charges of conspiring to destroy evidence.

The currency weakened as much as 3 percent to 2.4705 per dollar, and fell 2 percent to 2.4455 at 10:38 a.m. in New York. The benchmark Bovespa stock index fell 1.6 percent to 26,465.65.

more...

[54anickel]

26. Disney probes China 'sweatshop' claims

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,9071-1742027,00.html

Media giant Walt Disney has been forced to hire a team of external auditors to investigate fresh claims that its contractors have been operating "sweatshop" conditions in factories making children's books in China.

Disney said it had hired not-for-profit group Verité to investigate the allegations, levelled through the National Labor Committee, the American human rights lobby group,

Last night, the committee published a report by the Hong Kong-based Students and Scholars Against Corporate Misbehavior, a new group dedicated to protecting the rights of Chinese workers.

In the report, Recovering Mickey's Conscience, operators of Disney factories in China are accused of flouting workers' rights, with poor pay and unbearable working conditions.

"In China, young women and men are forced to work 10 to 13 hours a day producing Disney’s children’s books six and seven days a week, working a gruelling 60 to 90 hours a week. The workers are paid just 33 to 41 cents an hour, trapping them in misery," the committee said.

more...

[54anickel]

28. Exotic debt may pose risk for investment banks (CDOs)

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-08-18T145022Z_01_N17250553_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-BIZWALLST-CDO-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A growing part of the bond market that lets investors diversify and choose their risk levels is making big money for banks and brokers now, but could create big headaches in the future.

Called collateralized debt obligations, the securities and related derivatives are generating huge underwriting fees for banks. But there are serious risks connected with their rapid growth, analysts and risk management professionals say, including markdowns on bad positions, lawsuits from disgruntled customers, and back-office failures.

The bond market has been a crucial source of earnings for investment banks in recent years, as a series of rate cuts and an improving economy have boosted returns for corporate bonds and Treasuries.

But some parts of the structured credit market have grown so quickly that all the risks may not be fully understood, said David Mordecai, a former CDO manager who is now president of Risk Economics, a financial engineering advisory firm.

more...

[54anickel]

30. Court throws out $1 billion verdict in State Farm case

http://www.belleville.com/mld/belleville/news/local/12417923.htm

SPRINGFIELD, Ill. - The Illinois Supreme Court threw out a $1 billion judgment against State Farm Insurance Co. Thursday in a ruling that could restrict consumers' power to band together for class-action lawsuits.

State Farm customers accused the company of defrauding them by refusing to pay for top-of-the-line replacement parts - including hoods, bumpers and doors - on damaged cars. They argued the parts that State Farm insisted on using were not as durable or safe as the ones made to factory specifications.

That violated the company's duty to restore cars to their condition before the accidents, the lawsuit argued on behalf of roughly 4.7 million policyholders.

But a divided Supreme Court ruled that differing language in those millions of policies means there can be no single class of customers to sue State Farm. It also found that the plaintiffs failed to prove any breach of contract or fraud, partly because State Farm never promised the replacement parts would be as good as the originals.

snip>

Legal experts and business analysts interpreted the State Farm ruling as evidence that the court will rule for Philip Morris. Even the dissenting justices in Thursday's ruling said the majority shows "a new hostility" to class-action cases.

more...

[54anickel]

31. USDA finds 1,000 violations of mad cow rules

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8964548/

WASHINGTON - Federal food safety inspectors found more than 1,000 instances since 2004 where U.S. meat plants cut corners or violated regulations aimed at preventing the spread of mad cow disease, the U.S. Agriculture Department said Monday.

The USDA said it released documents to the American Meat Institute and the consumer group Public Citizen showing that federal inspectors filed 1,036 noncompliance reports from January 2004 to May 2005 involving the removal of the brain, skull and spinal cord of cattle aged 30 months and older.

The materials are considered to carry the highest risk in spreading the brain-wasting disease, also known as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). The USDA banned them from the human food supply a few days after the December 2003 discovery of the first U.S. case of mad cow disease in a Washington state dairy cow.

snip>

The documents were released to the industry and consumer groups in response to Freedom of Information Act requests, and were not made public by the USDA.

more...

[54anickel]

33. 1:09 update bonds come full circle

Dow 10,596.40 +41.47 (+0.39%)
Nasdaq 2,139.88 +3.80 (+0.18%)
S&P 500 1,222.51 +3.49 (+0.29%)
10-yr Bond 4.22% 0.00
30-yr Bond 4.427% 0.00
NYSE Volume 878,750,000
Nasdaq Volume 706,508,000

1:00PM : The indices have drifted back from higher levels seen earlier in the session as the sponsorship behind that move has faded... To that end, breadth figures have come in some, but still connote a bullish bias as advancers continue to lead decliners at the NYSE and Nasdaq... As noted previously, oil prices have jumped back above $65/bbl... While the broader market hasn't buckled in the face of that increase, the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which was up 0.6% around 10:30 ET, has recently crossed back into negative territory... NYSE Adv/Dec 1827/1305, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1578/1238
12:25PM : Buying efforts have tapered off, but sellers haven't flexed much muscle to this point... Oil prices have topped $65/bbl again (now at $65.25) and continue to underpin broad-based strength in oil-related issues... The ability of the major indices to hold near their highs today, however, will hinge on the performance of sectors other than energy services (+1.69%)... Specifically, the direction the financial (+0.21%) and technology (+0.36%) sectors take in the afternoon will dictate the standing of the broader market... NYSE Adv/Dec 1838/1221, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1610/1188

12:00PM : Oil prices are up and several more retailers issued disappointing guidance... Nonetheless, the market has exhibited a positive bias since the start of trading on this options expiration day...

The factors influencing that disposition have included a UBS upgrade of Coca-Cola (KO 44.53, +1.00) to Buy from Neutral, Prudential providing bullish backing for IBM (IBM 83.09, +1.94), Caterpillar (CAT 54.73, +1.58) reporting on new growth prospects for its China business, and software company Autodesk (ADSK 40.54, +2.19) delivering a better than expected earnings report that was replete with increased guidance for Q3 and the full year... To be sure, there hasn't been one compelling news item to explain today's broad-based buying interest, but rather, there have been pockets of favorable developments - like those noted above - across numerous industry groups that have kept sellers sidelined... At the moment, nine of ten economic sectors are sporting a gain, with the strongest move having been made by Energy Services (+1.55%)...

A rebound in crude prices (+$1.18 at $64.95/bbl), driven by production cuts in Ecuador and Nigeria, has sparked the buying interest in oil-related issues and, somewhat surprisingly, hasn't sidetracked today's buying efforts... Then again, despite the jump in prices today, crude futures are still down 3.4% for the week... That realization may be serving as a placating factor, yet a further increase in oil prices carries the potential to disrupt the afternoon trade... The lone laggard from a sector perspective is Consumer Discretionary (-0.07%) as the relative weakness in the retail group is acting as an influential drag... NYSE Adv/Dec 1842/1188, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1627/1151

11:30AM : It has been pretty steady thus far in terms of the trading activity, as the indices haven't encountered any wild swings on this options expiration day... Although it has been indicated today that additional retailers have checked in with disappointing guidance, stocks of the offending companies have held their own... Gymboree (GYMB 16.92, +0.27), a suggested holding in Briefing.com's portfolio for active investors, is actually trading higher, as is Aeropostale (ARO 25.09, +1.34), which got upgraded at Prudential to Neutral-Weight from Underweight following its report...

[54anickel]

34. 2:33 and drifting aimlessly

Dow 10,585.82 +30.89 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,137.77 +1.69 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,221.38 +2.36 (+0.19%)
10-yr Bond 4.214% -0.00
30-yr Bond 4.423% -0.00
NYSE Volume 1,085,615,000
Nasdaq Volume 876,811,000

2:00PM: Oil prices are up noticeably today, but the stock market has refused to buckle as gains in large-cap issues have helped keep the major indices north of the unchanged mark... Two Dow components - IBM (IBM 83.01, +1.86) and Caterpillar (CAT 54.84, +1.69) - are accounting for the majority of the gains in the blue chip average which, strikingly, is split at the moment with 15 components up and 15 down... The biggest laggards of the day include Wal-Mart (WMT 46.68, -0.56) and Altria Group (MO 69.84, -0.55)...
Wal-Mart is down 4.9% since reporting its Q2 results and warning about the negative impact of rising gas prices... NYSE Adv/Dec 1808/1370, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1584/1303

1:30PM: The fade continues as sector sponsorship is disappearing... At mid-day, nine of ten economic sectors were in positive territory; that number has now been reduced to six of ten, but losses in losing sectors still remain fairly small... As we suggested previosuly, an extension of the rally in crude prices (+$1.88 at $65.65/bbl) has disrupted the bullish sentiment seen earlier... DJUA +0.7, Russell 2000 +0.3, SOX +0.5, S&P Midcap 400 +0.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 1824/1301, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1584/1252

1:00PM: The indices have drifted back from higher levels seen earlier in the session as the sponsorship behind that move has faded... To that end, breadth figures have come in some, but still connote a bullish bias as advancers continue to lead decliners at the NYSE and Nasdaq... As noted previously, oil prices have jumped back above $65/bbl... While the broader market hasn't buckled in the face of that increase, the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which was up 0.6% around 10:30 ET, has recently crossed back into negative territory...

[54anickel]

35. Join the crowd 11,000 apply for 400 openings (WalMart in Oakland)

Want a Wal-Mart job? Join the crowd
11,000 apply for 400 openings at retailer's new Oakland store

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/08/17/MNGDPE91AH1.DTL

For all the criticism that Wal-Mart receives for its low wages and minimal health benefits, the retail giant says more than 11,000 people in the Bay Area are clamoring to get a job at its new Oakland store.

snip>

Wal-Mart has accepted more than 11,000 applications from Bay Area job seekers, marking the largest volume of interest it has received at any of its Northern California stores, said Wal-Mart spokeswoman Cynthia Lin.

"I needed a job ASAP, and they had their doors open," said Virginia Ford, 19, of Oakland, who had applied for 25 jobs in three months before she landed one as a cashier at Wal-Mart in Oakland on Tuesday.

Stephen Levy, an economist for the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, said the pent-up demand for work reflects the Bay Area's slow recovery from the dot-com crash.

"There's still a lot of people who were put out of work in the last four years who still don't have a job....

more...

[54anickel]

36. Chinese Gasoline Traders Urge Govt to Ease Price Caps

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aWb6pkmwJqBM&refer=asia

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese gasoline traders and manufacturers urged the government to ease price controls blamed for shortages in Shanghai, the nation's commercial center, and provinces including Guangdong, the biggest manufacturing hub.

Some retailers are limiting sales to avoid losses because they can't pass soaring supply costs on to customers, industry officials including Liu Jian, chairman of the Shandong-based Oil Product Trading Association of Qingdao, said today.

An increase in gasoline prices would boost manufacturing costs and inflation in China. The nation's economy has tripled in a decade to $1.6 trillion, more than doubling fuel demand and contributing to the surge in crude oil costs for refiners such as China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Asia's largest.

``There's a greater need for the government to reform the current oil pricing structure, which is not moving fast enough with the market and international oil prices,'' Zhang Jingming, company secretary at Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., a unit of China Petroleum & Chemical, said by phone.

more...

[54anickel]

37. Gold ends lower for the day and week

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=moreover&guid={30EF764F-762F-473D-9FAD-0C03892A9C8F}

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell Friday to end the week with a cumulative 2% loss, pressured by some strength in the U.S. dollar and by overall weakness in crude-oil prices this week.

"Gold put in its highs early in the week and is in the process of testing major support areas," said Charles Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group.

"The market seems to be shrugging off the inflationary implications of crude and higher interest rates," he said, adding that the session's weakness marks a "technical correction.

"Gold is holding on the technical levels it needs to," Nedoss said.

Gold for December delivery closed at $442.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down $2.50. It lost $9.20 for the week, having closed at $451.40 last Friday.

more...

[54anickel]

38. Bush Administration Sticks With Controversial Trucker Rule

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050819/sleepy_truckers.html?.v=1

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The government said Friday that truck drivers can stay behind the wheel for 11 hours straight without taking a rest -- leaving intact a rule that truckers and safety advocates alike say is unsafe.

For 60 years, truckers could drive for 10 hours at a time. Two years ago, the Bush administration changed the rule to allow them another hour of driving time. But a federal court threw out the changes.

On Friday, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration announced a revision to the rule that would still let truckers drive 11 hours, three hours more than safety advocates say they should.

Studies show the risk of deadly crashes significantly rises after the 10th and 11th hours of driving, said Joan Claybrook, president of the safety group Public Citizen.

"Trucks are going to continue to be rolling time bombs on the highway," Claybrook said. "So many drivers are tired and that's what causes so many crashes."

more...

[54anickel]

39. Secretive China keeps market on edge over oil stocks

http://in.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-08-19T161428Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-213203-1.xml

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's erratic oil demand growth may offer more unpredictable twists and turns after this month as Beijing considers how and when to fill the first tanks of its newly built strategic reserves.

Traders are less worried about the strain the eventual purchases will place on tight markets than the prospect of an opaque, stop-start stockbuild that could distort the real state of demand for years to come and roil markets now riveted by the No. 2 consumer's thirst for oil.

Officials in China, whose 15 percent demand surge last year helped push prices beyond $50 a barrel for the first time, have given little away regarding the planned reserves, which will ultimately reach more than 100 million barrels.

Construction of the first tanks in Ningbo, to hold up to 10 million barrels, will be finished this month.

A few barrels have been poured into some tanks to test them out, sources say, but the big questions -- how quickly will stocks be built, how much is Beijing prepared to pay and will they be used to try to influence prices -- are unanswered.

more...

[54anickel]

41. Jury Awards Widow $253.4M in Vioxx Trial

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050819/ap_on_he_me/vioxx_trial

ANGLETON, Texas - A Texas jury found pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co. liable for the death of a man who took the once-popular painkiller.

Jurors awarded Robert Ernst's widow, Carol, $253.4 million in damages, which is a combination of his lost pay as a Wal-Mart produce manager, mental anguish, loss of companionship and punitive damages.

The case drew national attention from pharmaceutical companies, lawyers, consumers, stock analysts and arbitragers as a signal of what lies ahead for Merck, which has vowed to fight the more than 4,200 state and federal Vioxx-related lawsuits pending across the country. Merck said it plans to appeal.

A seven-man, five-woman jury from a semi-rural county south of Houston deliberated for 10 1/2 hours over two days before blaming the drug for killing Ernst in his sleep in 2001. Jurors rejected Merck's argument that Ernst died of clogged arteries rather than a Vioxx-induced heart attack that led to his fatal arrhythmia.

more...

[54anickel]

42. 3:13 headin' into the home stretch

Dow 10,578.81 +23.88 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,138.06 +1.98 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,221.48 +2.46 (+0.20%)
10-yr Bond 4.209% -0.01
30-yr Bond 4.42% -0.01
NYSE Volume 1,223,062,000
Nasdaq Volume 982,914,000

3:00PM: Broader market takes a hit on news that Merck (MRK 29.31, -1.10) is to be held liable on all three counts in the death of a Texas man who took Vioxx... Merck has said it will appeal the decision (no surprise there), but the implication that the verdict in the Ernst case will put it at risk of losing other suits related to Vioxx is taking a heavy toll on its stock... Despite the drop in Merck's price, which has weighed on other drug makers like Pfizer (PFE 25.71, -0.17), both the Dow and S&P are holding their ground in positive territory... NYSE Adv/Dec 1832/1377, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1579/1329
2:30PM: Market is little changed since the last update; in fact, it has traded in a very tight range for the better part of the afternoon trade... A spike in oil prices and a lack of concerted sector leadership have impeded its upside, whereas, gains in some of the market's biggest stocks, like IBM (IBM 82.95, +1.80), have kept the market from succumbing to downside pressure... Outside of Energy Services (+1.46%), the change in the remaining nine sectors ranges from a loss of 0.38% (Consumer Discretionary) to a gain of 0.56% (Utilities)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1890/1304, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1620/1298

2:00PM: Oil prices are up noticeably today, but the stock market has refused to buckle as gains in large-cap issues have helped keep the major indices north of the unchanged mark... Two Dow components - IBM (IBM 83.01, +1.86) and Caterpillar (CAT 54.84, +1.69) - are accounting for the majority of the gains in the blue chip average which, strikingly, is split at the moment with 15 components up and 15 down... The biggest laggards of the day include Wal-Mart (WMT 46.68, -0.56) and Altria Group (MO 69.84, -0.55)...

[thoughtanarchist]

44. Closing numbers and blather

DJIA 10,559.23 +4.30 +0.04%
Nasdaq 2,135.56 -0.52 -0.02%
S&P 500 1,219.71 +0.69 +0.06%
30-Year Bond 4.42% -0.01 -0.14%
10-Year Bond 4.21% -0.01 -0.12%


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks closed mixed Friday to chalk up their fourth straight weekly loss, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tugged off its early highs by an unfavorable jury decision for drug giant Merck.

...

The Dow ($INDU: news, chart, profile) ended the session at 10,559, up 4.30 points on the day. The index earlier rose to as high as 10,626, buoyed by favorable news at International Business Machines (IBM: news, chart, profile) , Caterpillar (CAT: news, chart, profile) and an upgrade of Coca-Cola (KO: news, chart, profile) .

The Dow is down 0.4% from last Friday's close.

The S&P 500 ($SPX: news, chart, profile) ended up 0.69 point at 1,219.71, but was down 0.9% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX: news, chart, profile) lost 0.52 points to 2,135.56, for a 1% loss for the week.

Volume was moderate due to summer vacations, with 1.21 billion shares moving on the New York Stock Exchange, where advancers outnumbered decliners by 18 to 13. About 1.22 billion shares traded in the Nasdaq market, with gainers outnumbering losers by 15 to 14.


Have a good Weekend!

:hi:

[54anickel]

45. Thanks Thoughtanarchist!

I meant to get back, but couldn't until now. Talk about a roller coaster day - again.

Edit to add the blather -

What was shaping up to be a relatively ho-hum session Friday turned out to be somewhat scintillating when news hit the wires just before the last hour of trading that Merck (MRK 28.06, -2.35) was found liable for the death of a Texas man who took Vioxx... Known as the Ernst case, the decision broadsided shares of Merck when it became known the jury awarded the plaintiff $229 mln in punitive damages... Recognizing that Merck faces thousands of other lawsuits, investors were unnerved by the thought of Merck's potential liability and the impact on the Dow component's bottom-line...
Merck, of course, said it will appeal the verdict, and some pundits said it was likely the Texas Supreme Court would eventually reduce the punitive damages, but regardless, it was a startling decision that took a heavy toll on the drug maker's stock... Not surprisingly, other drug shares were dragged lower in Merck's wake and helped account for the Health Care sector (-0.79%) being the worst performing economic sector on Friday....

Following on its heels was the Consumer Discretionary sector (-0.50%), which was held back yet again by a weak showing from the retail shares that followed another batch of disappointing guidance from several companies, including Gap (GPS 19.74, -0.41)... Compounding the retail industry's weakness was a noticeable rebound in crude prices (+$2.02 to $65.79/bbl) that stoked concerns about the impact rising energy prices will have on consumer spending... The jump in crude was sparked by news of production cuts in Ecuador and Nigeria that fed into the market's misgivings about supplies being inadequate to meet demand...

Despite the weakness in the aforementioned sectors, the broader market still managed to eke out a small gain as strength in the Energy Services (+1.51%) sector and widely-held large-cap shares served as offsetting influences... In particular, IBM (IBM 82.76, +1.61) and Coca-Cola (KO 44.39, +0.86) were winning standouts with the former company getting bullish backing from Prudential and the latter company earning an upgrade to Buy from Neutral at UBS... It was Caterpillar (CAT 54.82, +1.67), however, that topped the Dow's list of winners, as the machinery company drew the interest of buyers with reports of new growth prospects in China...

The Nasdaq, for its part, limped into the close and came up just short of positive territory with a lack of concerted leadership acting as an impeding factor... Autodesk (ADSK 40.41, +2.06), however, was a definite bright spot from a leadership standpoint as the technical software company was justly rewarded for reporting better than expected Q2 earnings and increasing its guidance for Q3 and the full year... The Technology sector (-0.03%) was basically flat for the day, as was the Consumer Stpales sector (-0.02%)... Altogether six of the 10 economic sectors recorded gains ranging from 0.12% (Financial) to 1.51% (Energy Services)...

While Friday was an options expiration day, the volatility factor was low along with the volume... Approximately 1.2 bln shares traded at both the NYSE and Nasdaq... NYSE Adv/Dec 1817/1426, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1580/1422

[thoughtanarchist]

46. Thank YOU 5 4 !

For keeping us all up to date day after day...

and for the Daily Dollar Watch!

You've earned this :beer:

cheers!

:toast: