STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 23 August

[ozymandius]

Tuesday August 23, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 151 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 246 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 310 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1367
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 22, 2005

Dow... 10,569.89 +10.66 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq... 2,141.41 +5.85 (+0.27%)
S&P 500... 1,221.73 +2.02 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.22% +0.01 (+0.19%)
Gold future... 443.00 +0.80 (+0.18%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

SLOW BOAT TO CHINA OR JUNK TALES TO DEBUNK? – THE SEQUEL

-cut-

I’m left with the conclusion that while China really needs the energy, they seemingly cannot refine the crude oil available to them on the world market – which currently happens to be heavy stuff from the Middle East. North American refineries are known to be better able to refine heavier crude. As The Washington Times recently reported,

“… as the world's oil thirst swells to more than 84 million barrels a day and producers struggle to keep up, the extra supply being brought onto the market, primarily by Saudi Arabia, is the heavy, sour variety. Not all refiners have the equipment to process it.”

This is all highly consistent with the Simmons thesis on peak oil. This is also consistent with falling VLCC rates from the Middle East to Asia - but not due to lack of demand in China – it looks like it’s all about constricted or diminished supply from the Middle East. Who would bother shipping oil if they could not refine it? Perhaps Matthew Simmons should stand up and take a bow? Maybe we’re already experiencing the ‘thin edge of the wedge’ where Peak Oil is concerned, dear reader. Better fill 'er up now while it’s still cheap or better yet, buy a bike and a pair of ear muffs! It might be a long cold winter.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

The WrapUp is a bit abstract. But chock full of information gleaned from public sources and bundled to present a disturbing picture.

[Jack from Charlotte]

91. What was the Dow/S&P on 1/20/01 when AWOL/Moron took office?

I'm thinking The Dow is very close to where it is now. So we're back up to zero rate of return after 4 1/2 years of this guy in office.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil edges up near $66 on supply worries

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices inched up toward $66 on Tuesday as fears over persistent global supply disruptions countered recovering output from Ecuador and an expected slight increase in U.S. crude stocks.

U.S. light crude was 16 cents higher at $65.81 a barrel by 0710 GMT in the new front-month October contract, after September expired on Monday up 10 cents at $65.45. London Brent crude rose 14 cents to $64.64 a barrel.

A series of production outages have overshadowed more comfortable crude stock levels in the United States and pushed the market back toward record levels above $67 early this month.

-cut-

STORM SEASON

Tropical storm Jose, the 10th of an unusually heavy Atlantic hurricane season, neared land in Mexico and reminded traders that the peak September storm period is yet to come and could cause further output disruption in the Gulf of Mexico.

more

[ozymandius]

3. from the weekend: IMF report to warn of oil price threat to global economy

The International Monetary Fund is to warn that record oil prices pose a significant risk to the global economy and could thwart growth next year, according to an apparent leak of its forthcoming World Economic Outlook.

Oil prices spiralled to over $67 a barrel earlier this week and many analysts have cautioned the economy could be headed for a recession if such high prices continue.

Yesterday the price of oil jumped $1 to above $65 a barrel after news that rockets hit two US warships docked in Jordan and another in southern Israel.

The IMF, normally known for cautiously worded reports, is expected to warn that, "all in all, the dangers have become greater" from oil prices, when it puts out its six-monthly global outlook in mid-September.

more...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1552894,00.html

[ozymandius]

4. also from the weekend: New Perils at the Pump

Aug. 29-Sept. 5, 2005 issue - Hummer drivers, welcome to the era of the $100 fill-up. No matter what you drive, the new normal is monthly gas bills that look like car payments. After a year of $2-a-gallon gas, we worry that it could pass $3 and approach the inflation-adjusted record. Analysts blame a combustible mix of Mideast instability, Chinese demand and overtaxed refineries. The result: accelerating inflation.

The effect is most dire in Detroit, which still derives most of its profits from SUVs and pickups. The national average for a tank of gas is about $2.55. The Big Three always viewed $3-a-gallon gas as the threshold that would drive car buyers out of their guzzlers and into gas misers. But consumers have already started changing their habits. Even before this summer, sales of big SUVs were off significantly. Now Detroit is scrambling to re-engineer its lineup. Chrysler's new CEO, Tom LaSorda, is asking his engineers to look at sacrificing horsepower for mileage—once heresy in Motown. "No economist in the world ever predicted fuel prices like this," he says.

more but short with graphics...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9025204/site/newsweek/

[modrepub]

5. from the boonies

related items of interest:

My local paper has run a couple of profiles on local businesses the last couple of weeks, one for a large farmer's market in the area and another for an antiques center. Both owners said the same thing. Crowds are smaller this year because of gas prices.

While traveling through NJ heard sales of SUVs and trucks are steady because of all the incentives. Friend commented you can buy a full-size truck for $16k. That's what they about went for when I worked at a Ford dealer, in 1986!

[UpInArms]

10. Tom LaSorda is a complete buffoon

"No economist in the world ever predicted fuel prices like this," he says.

I guess when you put your head up your arse for most of your lifetime and you pay people to spew bullshit, the light of day never enters one's brain. :shrug:

[hatrack]

16. No economist ever learned the meaning of the word "finite" before

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

37. Commentary: Oil bubbles up

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9807845C%2D9517%2D47A6%2DBA34%2D8904720A09C0%7D&siteid=mktw

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- Speculation -- not lack of supply -- has now become the driving force behind soaring oil prices.

On the surface, there would appear to be many good reasons for the jump in oil prices over the past few months. Indeed, new ones pop up almost daily.

The rationale most frequently mentioned is the belief that demand is outpacing supply.

Because of our strong economy, combined with our penchant for gas-guzzling SUVs, the U.S. is gobbling up growing gobs of fossil fuel. China and India are said to be adding to demand pressures as well.

Then there are so-called geopolitical developments.

To put it bluntly, these reflect the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, ranging from Iran's defiant stance on nuclear power, to the death of Saudi Arabia's monarch, to threats of terrorist attacks on oil fields and pipelines.

<snip>

Lured by rising prices, speculators have been pouring tons of money into the spot and futures markets, betting that prices will go even higher. They're forgetting one thing: the law of supply and demand.

The higher oil prices go, the more likely it is they'll fall. Either demand will drop off or new supplies will come onstream.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.13 Change -0.01 (-0.01%)

Forex: Dollar Dips On Foreign Politics

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2962&Itemid=62

With little in the way of economic news, the dollar moved mostly on political news from Japan and Europe today. After achieving the biggest weekly gain against the euro in eleven weeks, the dollar retraced a bit this morning after the results of a German opinion poll. Aside from the 44-pip move created by this news, the EURUSD stayed within ranges and was trading at $1.2231 at 15:00 GMT.


In the latest opinion poll conducted by RTL news, German’s opposition alliance has gained another percentage point over Schroeder’s Social Democratic Party and the Greens. These results precede an election to take place in four weeks on September 18. A victory by the opposition party will make Angela Merkel the first female chancellor and will also bring much-needed reforms in the country. A brighter political future for Japan’s Koizumi also created some losses for the dollar as a poll published over the weekend showed that the current government had a support rate of 53.2%, a gain of 5.5 percentage points since early August. If Koizumi’s party does not win the election to be held on September 11, many positive reforms that he had planned will be stymied.

Despite negative earnings news and higher oil prices, US equities forged ahead today on acquisition anticipation. By 15:25 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 58.99, or 0.56%, to 10,618.22. The NASDAQ was up 9.68, or 0.45% to 2,145.24. Finally, the S&P 500 was up 7.46, or 0.61%, to 1,227.17.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

41. Dollar barely dented by U.S. housing data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38587.4277320023-840794780&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar's gains against the euro and the yen were shaved by a sliver after the release of a report showing a larger-than-expected dip in U.S. home resales from June's record high. The dollar was changing hands at $1.2219 per euro after trading at $1.2214 before the report. The greenback is up 0.1% on the day against the euro. Dollar-yen slipped to 110 from 110.01 ahead of the data and had since bounced back to 110.06, a gain of 0.3% from where it stood late Monday.

[UpInArms]

7. Today's Report:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Aug 23	10:00 AM	Existing Home Sales	Jul	-	7.25M	7.25M	7.33M	-

[UpInArms]

34. Existing home sales drop to 7.16 million - down 2.6%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA89165F9%2D9223%2D49EB%2DBEBE%2D361040F7E5A6%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell 2.6% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.16 million, the third highest level ever, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

Sales in June were revised up to a record 7.35 million from 7.33 million reported earlier.

July sales were up 4.7% from July 2004. "This is a big number any way you slice it," said David Lereah, chief economist for the real estate group.

Median sales prices rose 14.1% year-over-year to $218,000, the industry group said. A 14% price appreciation in a year "is not sustainable," Lereah said.

Inventories of homes for sale rose 2.6% in July to 2.751 million, a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace. It's the largest inventory since May 1988, while the months' supply is the largest since November 2003.

"We are starting to see some air coming out of these balloons," Lereah said. "Inventories are starting to build," he said, which could put supply in better balance with demand, thus reducing pressure on prices.

<snip>

Sales were flat in the South, and fell 7.5% in the West, fell 3.3% in the Northeast and fell 1.8% in the Midwest.

...more...

10:00am 08/23/05 U.S. JUNE EXISTING HOME SALES REVISED UP TO RECORD 7.35M

10:00am 08/23/05 U.S. JULY MEDIAN HOME PRICE UP 14.1% YEAR-ON-YEAR

10:00am 08/23/05 U.S. JULY HOME INVENTORY UP 2.6% TO 2.75M, MOST IN 17 YEARS

10:00am 08/23/05 U.S. JULY EXISTING HOME SALES FALL 2.6% TO 7.16M PACE

[UpInArms]

64. U.S. homebuilders fall as July home sales data disappoints

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38587.4811868056-840799231&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. homebuilding stocks fell Tuesday after July existing home sales data came in below expectations. The National Association of Realtors said sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell 2.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.16 million in June. Economists were expecting sales of about 7.29 million. KB Homes (KBH) led the decline, losing 3.3% to $69.82. DR Horton (DHI) fell 2.4% to $34.23, Hovnanian (HOV) dipped 2.4% to $57.22 and Beazer Homes (BZH) fell 2.9% to $58.25.

I guess the market didn't like that 17 year high in inventory :eyes:

[UpInArms]

85. Condo market slows in July

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B60789390%2D8867%2D4497%2D838B%2DCADA51AA32A4%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The condominium market, which had been hottest sector of a red-hot housing market, slowed in July, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

Condo sales dropped 5% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 915,000 from a record 963,000 pace in June. Despite the decline, it was the third-highest sales rate ever. Condo sales had set records for four months in a row before July's decline.

Over the past year, condo sales are up 8.4%, more than double the 4% sales growth in single-family homes.

Overall, sales of previously owned homes (both single-family and condo units) fell 2.6% to a 7.16 million annual rate in July, the industry group reported Tuesday. See full story.

While condo sales remained very strong, inventories rose and price increases slowed in July, indicators suggesting that the condo sector could be cooling off.

The rise in condo inventories and the slowdown in price gains lends "some support to the possibility" that the market "is at or close to a peak," said Maury Harris, chief economist for UBS.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. US chain store sales fall in the latest week-ICSC

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050823:MTFH51443_2005-08-23_11-45-50_NAT001755:1

NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store retail sales fell for the third consecutive week, as retailers felt the effects of consumers cutting back on spending due to record high gasoline prices, a retail report said on Tuesday.

Sales fell 0.3 percent in the week ended Aug. 20, compared with a 0.2 percent fall the previous week, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in a joint report.

Compared with the same week a year ago, sales softened to a 4.0 percent increase after a 4.4 percent rise the preceding week.

"Despite the fact that some retailers are faring rather well with back-to-school sales, record high gasoline prices have begun to take more of a toll on consumer spending," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist and director of research.

"According to special consumer gasoline-price-impact survey, which was conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation during the period of August 18-21, 2005, found that 58 percent of households are now reducing their discretionary spending on items such as clothing, shoes, jewelry, consumer electronics, at restaurants, on spa and beauty services or on other non-essential purchases, Niemira added

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. U.S. chain store sales fall 0.3% as gas prices begin to bite

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38587.3512483912-840790024&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales at major U.S. retail chains fell 0.3% last week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. Same-store sales were up 4% year-over-year, the indudstry group said Tuesday. "Record high gasoline prices have begun to take more of a toll on consumer spending," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist. In a special survey for the retail group, 58% of U.S. households said they were cutting back on discretionary spending because of high gas prices. Last week, average retail gas prices rose by 6.2 cents to a record $2.654 a gallon, up 17% in the past seven weeks, the Energy Department reported Monday.

for those that wonder what would have happened if the USCC had not stepped into the 2000 election, have a glance at this page:

http://www.issues2000.org/Budget_&_Economy.htm

[UpInArms]

23. US chain store sales fall in latest week-Redbook

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-08-23T125611Z_01_NAT001756_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-RETAIL-REDBOOK-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store sales fell in the third week of August, as back-to-school sales suffered as consumers postponed their purchases, a report said on Tuesday.

Sales in August to-date were down 0.9 percent compared with the same span in July. Sales at major retailers rose by 3.9 percent on a year-over-year basis for the week ended August 20, said Redbook Research, an independent company.

"Some discounters noted firmer sales of durables as consumers continued to shift in buying patterns favoring back-to-school electronics such as laptops and MP3 players while traditional back-to-school clothing categories under performed," Redbook said.

"This was in part due to the persistence of hot weather across the country as well as consumers postponing their purchases closer to the time of actual need as students want to see what other students are wearing before purchasing clothing," Redbook added.

...more...

:wow: Blaming the weather?????

:rofl:

[AnneD]

33. UH....excuse me?

Here in Houston (yes, I think we qualify as a hot hot hot spot. You always go to the mall in the summer because it is cool inside. You don't spend any money BECAUSE YOU"RE BROKE!!!!!!! That 2% you may have gotten at your last job preformance, won't cover the increased gas costs. Hot weather my Aunt Mildred's bathing knickers.
:rofl:
:donut: Morning Marketeer's. I am going to start a new charity and I want you all to contribute at least a buck. I'll call it the Suprised Economist Fund. All donations will be used to buy these guys a clue. Happy Hunting and watch out for the bears....

[Maeve]

42. AnneD, darlin'...you can't GIVE these guys a clue!

They will reject it, don't need it...none so blind as they who will NOT see and all that!

:hi: Marketeers! Good news and bad...won't be taking the Wake tent to Kansas City, but I'm still going; last day before kids go back to school :woohoo: keeping up with life is just about like it was for the Red Queen(run as fast as you can to stay in one place) and as always :yourock:

[UpInArms]

45. Hiya Maeve!

:hi:

So very glad you have dropped in -

What's a "Wake tent"?

[Maeve]

66. For festivals, I "do" an Irish Wake

We have a "body" laid out and explanations of various customs associated with the three-day long celebration of life that is the old-style Irish funeral. Been doing it for five years at the Dublin Festival in Ohio--it's a fairly popular exhibit...I even wrote a booklet about it called (pun alert!) "Wake Me When It's Over."
This year, the American Civil War re-enactors came over and we waked one of their dearly departed--that was a hoot.

[UpInArms]

68. sounds like a great time!

thanks for the explanation :hi:

check your PM

[AnneD]

75. When I die,

I have made it known I want an Irish wake. I want to be cremated (after the recyclable parts have been gleaned). I have several spots where I would like to go...maybe Wrigley field, Ganghes river, a wonderful mountain peak I went up while in Alaska, a spot I like in Ireland, launched into space, or al Hunter Thompson.

[AnneD]

76. Well.....

we will provide other services....like a can of pencils and sunglassed (dual purpose-a way to generate cash when the finally become unemployed and a way to disguise themselves, as many investors will want to lynch them). Of course, we have certain 'administrative costs' to take care of..Just make the check out to me c/o Royal Bank of the Bahama's LTD...I also will take Visa, MC, Amex and Paypal.

[ozymandius]

80. Howdy Maeve.

Good to see you around today. I will take this opportunity to recommend your book Seamus McSeamus and the booklet Wake Me When It's over again. Both are great reading.

Ozy :hi:

[Maeve]

89. You've got me caught between two smilies, Ozy

:blush: and :pals:

[54anickel]

40. WTF? So let me see if I've got this straight.

The kids are gonna show up for the first week of school wearing what they wore last year until they can see what the "cool" kids are wearing this year. With the exception for the kids who experienced one of those growth spurts over the summer (they'll be showing up in their "jammies") all the kids will be wearing last years ensemble. So I predict a huge spike in "jammie" sales next time around. :P

[UpInArms]

9. Home prices pushes more buyers to 40-yr loans

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-08-22T173639Z_01_N22142763_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-FINANCIAL-MORTGAGES-CONSUMERS-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sky-high prices are not preventing cash-strapped consumers from getting the house of their dreams now that lenders are letting them drag out the term of their mortgages to 40 years.

By moving from a fixed-rate 30-year to a 40-year loan, borrowers can stretch out loan payments and qualify for larger mortgages with lower payments.

While that seems to be good news for consumers, financial experts say the benefits are far outweighed by higher interest rates, 10 years of extra mortgage payments and a reduction in home equity.

"This (40-year) loan product screams of a budget-constrained consumer desperate to get into a home," said Gary Schatsky, a fee-only financial adviser/attorney. "This trend is disturbing to me, especially since it feeds into the growing obsession by consumers to get credit.

"They need to think through this mortgage's implications because in many cases, it will become their children's mortgage," said Schatsky, who is based in New York.

Incessant home price appreciation over the past few years has left some consumers with little choice but to seek riskier type loans, such as 40-year loans and interest-only loans.

...more...

[54anickel]

20. Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/shedlock/shedlock082305.html

snip>

"With every boom comes two things:

1) Panic fear of "missing out"
2) Rampant fraud"

Let's take a look at No. 2 since No. 1 should be blatantly obvious by now.

The Detroit News reports, "Refinancers Must Beware Foreclosure "Rescuers: Fast-talking predators can quickly get your home for a fraction of what it is really worth":

"You may think kindly toward companies that would offer a hand to debt-ridden homeowners on the brink of foreclosure. Don't. The majority of these so-called foreclosure 'rescuers' are actually predators who offer sinking homeowners what Harvard Law School professor and bankruptcy expert Elizabeth Warren calls 'the cement life jacket.'

"Before you're even aware of it, these scam artists will have acquired your home for a fraction of what it would have brought at sale. Or in an even worse scenario, they will have transferred your title into a trust that then enables them to rent or 'resell' your property to equally hoodwinked buyers while, to your surprise, you remain legally obligated to make the mortgage payments...

"Foreclosure 'rescue' scams fall into three main categories:

more...

[RawMaterials]

73. This is a good paragraph from the article

"As long as originators can count on selling mortgages to Fannie Mae (no matter how bad they are) or securitize them in a package of loans sold to "investors," blatant fraud is likely to continue. Such practices will continue until credit lending eventually blows up. At that time, there will be 24 congressional hearings trying to figure out "how it happened." Mish is quite confident that in the upcoming "biggest hand-washing affair in history," the loudest proclamation will be, "No one could possibly have seen this coming." "

[Paulie]

67. I'm all over this loan!

40 years, awesome!

I'm a fan of the Ric Edelman school of "Get the longest fixed mortgage you can, and NEVER pay it off." :)

http://www.ricedelman.com/planning/home/rule21.asp

Need to see what the rates would be over our 30yr/fixed at 5.75%... hmmm ;)

[UpInArms]

11. More from the "Deceiving the Consumer" Dept:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/22/AR2005082200895.html

excerpt:

Green Bay Dressed Beef of Green Bay, Wis., processed the cow on Aug. 4 and distributed the meat to wholesalers in Pennsylvania, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The department and the company are trying to find out how much beef wound up in retail stores, Cohen said.

The department issued code numbers for recalled cases of beef sent to distributors, but it was unknown whether beef that reached the retail level would have carried the same numbers.

Consumer groups have criticized the government for not revealing the names of retail stores involved in food recalls.

"When it comes to a case like this, the retailer is never disclosed _ how are you ever going to know whether your chuck roast was involved in this recall or not?" asked Jean Halloran, director of food policy initiatives at Consumers Union. "The consumer has absolutely no way of knowing."

The recall is for cuts of meat that could contain backbone because the cow's backbone was not removed. Those cuts include neck bone, short loin and bone-in chuck.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Pier 1 cuts view on declining traffic

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BFF3F58E9%2D8A08%2D47EC%2DAD61%2DD34EDB6232C8%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Home-furnishings retailer Pier 1 Imports Inc. on Tuesday cut its financial outlook for the second quarter, citing a decline in customer traffic in August that led to aggressive promotional discounts and markdowns.

Pier 1 (PIR: news, chart, profile) , based in Fort Worth, Texas, now sees a loss of 12 to 14 cents a share in the three-month period ending August 27 with same-store sales anticipated to decline between 8% and 9%. For August, the retailer expects a drop of 13% to 15% in same-store sales. Same-store sales, or sales from stores open at least a year, are an important retail industry measure.

...more...

Isn't this the 13th quarter of declines for Pier I?

[UpInArms]

14. Ethics means more than ticking boxes

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/83fc634e-132f-11da-beee-00000e2511c8.html

Corporate governance codes have proliferated and business ethics is a fast-growing industry. But has corporate behaviour changed? The scandals just keep coming: Citigroup, AIG, Volkswagen and SK Corp have all had to defend themselves against allegations of ethical misconduct in recent months. Meanwhile, boardroom pay and golden goodbyes continue to escalate far beyond any corresponding improvement in corporate performance. The actors may have learnt their cues better, but they appear to have lost the plot. Why is this? And what can and should be done about the serious ethical shortcomings in finance and business?

In an environment where much boardroom pay is in the form of equity or stock options, most scandals today involve cooking the books to keep the share price up. Add in the fact that chief executives are under greater pressure than ever before from fund managers and analysts to “hit the numbers” and you have the nub of the problem. Incentive structures in the boardroom and below, and the business strategies of the consultants, all push in a direction that is at odds with ethical behaviour and, it should be said, long-run corporate performance. Ordinary financial market participants and business people feel penalised, not supported, for raising ethical questions.

...more that is unfortunately for subscribers only...

[54anickel]

15. Are PC price wars a cut too far?

http://hardware.silicon.com/desktops/0,39024645,39151603,00.htm

The number of PCs shipped worldwide will grow this year and next but PC makers are expected to take in about 0.4 per cent less in sales in 2006 from the $202.7bn predicted this year, according to a new report by Gartner.

The research firm said PC unit shipments are on pace to grow 12.7 per cent to total 206.6 million in 2005 and will increase 10.5 per cent to hit 228.29 million in 2006.

The statistics underscore the pricing pressure that's squeezing PC makers even as demand for their computers continues to increase.

Prices for a basic desktop set-up have hit rock bottom. CompUSA, for example, advertised a special this weekend for a $199.99 HP Pavilion desktop with a monitor after about $370 in rebates. Dell has been offering entry-level Dimension desktop computer bundles for $299 for some time, and desktop PCs priced at $399 are becoming more commonplace.

Price cuts are ordinary in the PC world but the recent price wars have forced vendors to look for even the most minute cost-cutting measures, according to the Gartner report.

more...


The ASP on PCs has been dropping for quite a while. That was why my last employer "downsized". As the selling price gets squeezed so does the quality of the components that go into them. We used to build a top quality machine, but slowly they evolved into cheap junk as the purchasing decisions revolved around price alone - didn't matter if it couldn't pass my compatibility testing. I had to lax my testing criteria. :eyes:

[RawMaterials]

17. Borrowing, Spending, Counterfeiting

Few Americans truly understand how our Federal Reserve system enables Congress to spend far beyond its means, but the cycle of spending and printing money affects all of us. Simply put, the more money our Treasury prints, the less every dollar is worth. Our pure fiat money system, in place since the last vestiges of a gold standard were eliminated in the early 1970s, has reduced the value of your savings by 80%. Disregard the government’s Consumer Price Index, which substantially underreports price inflation. Monetary inflation is true inflation, and we only need to look at the cost of homes, cars, energy, and medical care to recognize that a dollar buys far less today than ever.

snip....

First, federal debt continues to grow exponentially and shows no sign of abating. Americans were shocked at the notion of a $1 trillion federal debt in 1980; just 25 years later the total approaches $8 trillion. The Bush administration and the current Congress have increased spending at rates unseen since the New Deal and Great Society eras, and single-year deficits now exceed $500 billion. There is zero political will in Washington to curb spending, as evidenced by the shameful transportation bill recently passed by Congress.

Second, federal entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare will not be “fixed” by politicians who are unwilling to made hard choices and admit mistakes. Demographic trends will force tax increases and greater deficit spending to maintain benefits for millions of older Americans who are dependent on the federal government. Faced with uncomfortable financial realities, Congress will seek to avoid the day of reckoning by the most expedient means available-- and the Federal Reserve undoubtedly will accommodate Washington by printing more dollars to pay the bills.

Third, future administrations are unlikely to challenge a foreign policy orthodoxy that views America as the world’s savior. We are hemorrhaging billions of dollars every month in Iraq, and we waste billions more every year through foreign aid and overseas meddling. A foreign policy based on nation-building and the imposition of “democracy” abroad, in direct contravention of our founders’ admonitions, is not economically sustainable. In Korea alone, U.S. taxpayers have spent nearly one trillion in today’s dollars over 55 years. A permanent military presence in Iraq and the wider Middle East will cost enormous amounts of money.

Finally, we face a reordering of the entire world economy. China, Japan, and Asia in general have been happy to hold U.S. debt instruments in recent decades, but they will not prop up our spending habits forever. Foreign central banks are increasingly reluctant to hold more U.S. dollars, understanding that American leaders do not have the discipline to maintain a stable currency. When the rest of the world finally abandons the dollar as the global reserve currency, both Congress and American consumers will find borrowing money a more expensive proposition.

All of these factors make it likely that the U.S. dollar will continue to decline in value, perhaps precipitously, in the coming decade. Will it take an economic depression before the American public finally holds the political class accountable for its reckless borrowing, spending, and counterfeiting?

The greatest threat facing America today is not terrorism, or foreign economic competition, or illegal immigration. The greatest threat facing America today is the disastrous fiscal policies of our own government, marked by shameless deficit spending and Federal Reserve currency devaluation. It is this one-two punch-- Congress spending more than it can tax or borrow, and the Fed printing money to make up the difference-- that threatens to impoverish us by further destroying the value of our dollars.


http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2005/tst082205.htm

[54anickel]

18. Some oil money is up to no good

Well that certainly depends on one's perspective!

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2005-08-23-windfall-usat_x.htm

In case $3-per-gallon gas isn't depressing enough, consider what your gas money pays for: A bull market in Saudi stocks. Handouts for Fidel Castro. And weapons for anti-American terrorists.
Oil-producing states haven't seen a windfall like this since the twin price shocks of the 1970s. Persian Gulf countries this year will earn about $291 billion in oil revenue vs. $61 billion in 1998, when oil prices tanked, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF). For every $1 increase in the price of a barrel of oil, Venezuela, the No. 4 source of U.S. imports, reaps almost an additional $1 billion a year.

In several oil-producing countries, soaring oil prices are complicating U.S. foreign policy or blunting commercial opportunities for American companies. Irans' mullahs, locked in a standoff with the U.S. over Tehran's nuclear ambitions, are bolstered by an oil-rich economy that the International Monetary Fund says will grow 6% this year and next.

snip>

That's a significant sum, but it is being divided among a greater number of destinations than during previous booms. In the 1970s, most foreign investment by gulf states ended up in U.S. markets, which dominated global investing even more than today. Then-secretary of State Henry Kissinger encouraged Saudi investment so that the most influential member of OPEC would be discouraged from damaging the U.S. economy with future oil embargoes, says Rachel Bronson, director of Middle East studies for the Council on Foreign Relations.

snip>

At home, Chavez has lavished oil money on his constituents in Venezuela's poorest neighborhoods. Through "Mission Mercal," a network of government-run groceries, Chavez provides half-priced food to more than 10 million people.

snip>

Big oil producers should have learned one lesson from earlier booms: High prices don't last forever. Oil prices now are around $65 per barrel. But with greater production expected from non-OPEC producers such as Angola, Brazil and Azerbaijan, prices will drop to around $40 per barrel in 2007-08, says Jim Burkhart, director of oil market analysis for Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

more....

[UpInArms]

19. From the Boob Economist Dept: Standish Mellon expects rate cuts to resume

Standish Mellon expects rate cuts to resume in 2007

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38587.3589230903-840790559&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - Standish Mellon Asset Management, one of the largest U.S. fixed-income managers, said Tuesday it expects the Federal Reserve to continue hiking interest rates in 2005, but the pace may slow while inflation remains low and oil's economic impact remains uncertain. The next tightening phase will occur in 2006 as the unemployment rate falls toward 4.75% and the Fed puts the brakes on the economy, letting interest rates "overshoot" equilibrium levels to lock in low inflation. Rate cuts will resume in 2007 and beyond, according to an analysis of asset classes by Standish Mellon, a unit of Mellon Financial Corp. Shares of Mellon (MEL) fell 15 cents Monday to $32.21.

[54anickel]

21. Cripes, I've gotta clean the coffee off of my screen.

Rates may very well go back down, even before then. But it ain't gonna have a damned thing to do with falling UE.

Then again, the numbers may be cooked enough to make it look that way. :eyes:

[54anickel]

22. Omitted Variables (Hussman)

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc050822.htm

One of the nearly indelible assumptions about the current stock market is that valuations “deserve” to be high because interest rates and inflation are reasonably low. It accords with common sense that since stocks compete with bonds, lower interest rates should generally be accompanied by higher price/earnings multiples (and accordingly, lower future returns on stocks).

There's certainly some validity to this argument. We can observe, for instance, that as interest rates have declined since 1980, earnings yields (the inverse of P/E ratios) have also declined. This is conveniently summarized in the “Fed Model”, which assumes that the prospective earnings yield on the S&P 500 (on the basis of expected operating earnings) should be equal to the 10-year Treasury yield.

Unfortunately, the Fed Model dramatically overstates the relationship that exists between interest rates and justified stock valuations. Stock valuations began in the early 1980's at what were, objectively, very undervalued levels. Indeed, the price/peak earnings ratio for the S&P 500 Index fell below 7 in August 1982. Over the following two decades, stock valuations moved up to extremely high valuations, peaking at over 30 times earnings during the recent market bubble.

In other words, as interest rates declined, so did earnings yields. But a major portion of that decline in earnings yields represented a long movement from extreme undervaluation to extreme overvaluation, not a “fair value” relationship with interest rates.

What's really going on here is something called “omitted variables bias.” The Fed Model explains the decline in stock yields since 1980 with one variable – the 10-year Treasury bond yield. But in fact, there are two variables at work. One is the declining level of interest rates, sure. But the other is the move from deep undervaluation to extreme overvaluation – in other words, a profound decline in the “risk premium” that stocks have been priced to deliver, over and above what bonds could be expected to return. In 1982, the risk premium on stocks was huge. At present, it's close to zero, and possibly negative.

more...

[UpInArms]

24. U.S. stocks to open under pressure (Crude futures at $66 bbl)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBE6E3B59%2D6A1D%2D4DEA%2DBD8D%2D4EDBC517B696%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks are headed for a lower opening Tuesday, ahead of existing home sales data for July, as investors focus on energy prices and the financial sector following more management turmoil at Citigroup.

The future contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are all pointing toward losses in the early minutes of trade.

The market was volatile on Monday, closing with lackluster gains after a lively morning rally faded in the face of rising crude prices.

"There are two ways to interpret yesterday's market," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist at Ehrenkrantz, King & Nussbaum.

"You can see it either as a quiet late August low-volume day or you can see it as a failed rally, with the S&P 500 failing to show any significant movement higher, he said.

...more...

9:16am 08/23/05 OCTOBER CRUDE FUTURES TOP $66 A BARREL IN ELECTRONIC TRADE

[UpInArms]

43. Natural-gas futures lead energies higher

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38587.4270761227-840794742&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- September natural gas is up 29.6 cents, or 3.1%, at $9.86 per million British thermal units even after gaining 5% in the previous session. Storm activity in the Atlantic Monday rekindled concerns over disruptions to production the Gulf of Mexico, but the latest storm has been downgraded to a tropical depression and not seen as a threat to the output facilities, analysts said. Meanwhile, expectations for Wednesday's U.S. crude supply report were mixed, though most analysts expect to see a decline in gasoline supplies. October crude is up 20 cents at $65.85 a barrel.

[54anickel]

58. Natural gas prices may see 58 percent leap this winter

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=1705517

http://www.zwire.com/site/printerFriendly.cfm?brd=2703&dept_id=555106&newsid=15042369

If you're experiencing sticker shock at the gas pump this summer, just wait for your winter heating bill.

A 58 percent increase in natural gas prices is projected during the November through February winter season, according to a spokesman for MidAmerican Energy. Aquila wasn't projecting prices that far in advance, but spokesman Matt O'Reilly said August costs are about about 12 percent above last year.

Natural gas for the November through February period was trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange last week at $10.34 per mmbtu - the measurement unit used to purchase natural gas - compared to $6.53 last year, according to Matt Reinders, a spokesman for MidAmerican Energy. That's a 58 percent increase.

At the same time, September natural gas was trading at $9.59 per mmbtu, compared to $5.54 at the same time last year, Reinders said. That's a 73 percent increase for the shorter period.

more...

[UpInArms]

60. My question to the rest of the world:

How does it feel to be "one fodder unit"

http://greatchange.org/ov-martin,case_for_sedition.html

excerpt:

The Bush idea was (I remember Jeb used to say this) that, "Look, you hit them in every single hat they wear." That was the idea. He used to call them fodder. You hit the fodder in their hats as Taxpayers. You hit them in their hats as Investors and Savers. You hit them in their hats as Insurance Policy Owners through all these insurance scams his brother was involved in. Then there was, of course, Jeb's International Medical Corporation. Jeb also liked health care scams. But that was the idea the Bushes had, that you take the American taxpayer (which they called "One Fodder Unit," or OFU) and you hit them in every single hat they wear.

I don't know where the term came from, but "One Fodder Unit" became a popular term on the Republican cocktail party circuit in 1985. According to them, each individual American citizen equals One Fodder Unit.

Today we have the results of that. When George Bush left office, the federal budget deficit was actually twice what they claimed it was. They were able to hide about half of the federal budget deficit through the Bush Regime. Then Clinton came in, and he had a pretty good idea of what the problems were up front. That's one reason why he kept Alan Greenspan, by the way. It was because the marketplaces both here and abroad had a lot of faith in Greenspan. He told Greenspan early on that we're going to have to bring interest rates down and flood the market with money, which was done in '93. Interest rates fell precipitously, and then there was the sharp spike in '94. This was necessary to bleed some of the problems out of the economy.

After Bush got out of office, it was important that the economy be re-liquefied as quickly as possible, regardless of the inflationary impact. You can always control the inflationary impact later on by raising the interest rates.

...more...

[AnneD]

77. Well colour me

:grr: :nuke: Doesn't that accuratly sum up the GOP. DEM'S may screw their mistresses, but GOP'S screw the country.

[54anickel]

83. OK that's it. Stop the world I wanna get off now. Didn't papa Bush

always talk about the "New World Order"? :scared:

[UpInArms]

25. Treasurys on the defensive ahead of data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B462A879B%2DD0F6%2D4453%2D8046%2D5552C4E3ACBD%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - The price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell Tuesday, pressured by forecasts for a strong existing-home sales report that would support expectations for additional interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

The 10-year note was down 1/8, or $1.25 per each $1,000 of the notes, to 100 6/32.

The drop in price lifted its yield ($TNX: news, chart, profile) , a reference for mortgage and corporate borrowing rates, to 4.23% from 4.21% Monday.

The 30-year bond fell 5/32 to 114 7/32, yielding 4.44% vs. 4.43%.

Bonds tend to lose their appeal in a rising-rate environment, particularly short-term maturities.

The average of a MarketWatch survey of economists looks for home resales to have cooled only slightly in July from June's record 7.33 million sold.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. US Treasuries in tight summer range, oil a concern

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-08-23T133914Z_01_N23332096_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices edged lower on Tuesday, remaining within their narrow technical ranges in vacation-thinned volume as traders marked time ahead of the U.S. housing data.

Traders said the market was also looking ahead to a speech on the economy from Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow on Wednesday.

Benchmark ten-year notes were 1/32 lower for a yield of 4.22 percent, compared with 4.21 percent late on Monday, remaining within the 4.20 percent and 4.40 percent range which has held over the past two weeks.

"With only existing home sales (as data on Tuesday), we expect thin and rangebound conditions to persist. Any weakness in home sales and/or prices could be seen as a reason to push for the 4.19 percent level on 10 years, but in itself should be insufficient to break decisively through," a research note from BNP Paribas said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

38. Benchmark Treasury note gets small lift from housing data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38587.4249462037-840794651&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Benchmark Treasurys turned a small price loss into a slim price gain after the National Association of Realtors reported a larger-than-expected dip in July home sales from June's record high. The 10-year note was up 1/32 at 100 11/32, yielding an unchanged 4.21%. Even with the decline, the pace of sales was the third highest on record and was up nearly 5% from a year earlier.

[UpInArms]

26. pre-opening blather

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Stage remains set for the cash market to open with little fanfare as the futures market continues to vacillate around the unchanged mark... Companies in focus this morning following some notable ratings changes include upgrades on LU, FPL and DPH while GDT, SVU and ATYT have been downgraded

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Still shaping up to be a relatively flat open for the indices as futures indications continue to trade with a tinge of caution... Meanwhile, Banks should be in focus amid more management turmoil at Citigroup (C) and reports suggesting that Wachovia Corp (WB) is a front runner to acquire WFS Financial (WFSI)...

Retail could be also be in the spotlight again as Target (TGT) sees Aug. comps at high end of its 4-6% range while Q2 revenues at Williams-Sonoma (WSM) missed forecasts and Pier 1 Imports (PIR) issued downside Q2 (Aug) guidance

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a lackluster open for the cash market as investors wait for the day's only economic report to perhaps set a more definitive tone to trading... At 10:00 ET, July existing home sales (consensus 7.25 mln) will be released... Meanwhile, a lack of notable earnings reports and corporate news is also contributing to subdued action in pre-market trading

[UpInArms]

27. 9:44 EST casino wheels spinning

Dow 10,555.40 -14.49 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,144.04 +2.63 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,221.60 -0.13 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 42.16 -0.03 (-0.07%)

NYSE Volume 97,803,000
Nasdaq Volume 108,301,000

[UpInArms]

31. blather

9:40AM: Market opens in subdued fashion as a dearth of notable corporate news offers little incentive to own stocks in a rising interest rate environment... To that end, investors may be waiting for the 10:00 ET release of July existing home sales (consensus 7.25 mln) to provide more direction to early action as rising bond yields have contributed to seven consecutive losing sessions for the PHLX Housing Sector Index (HGX 529.21 -0.77)...

[UpInArms]

29. From the Fraud and Scam Dept: SEC charges former Kmart CEO, CFO with fraud

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38587.4061652778-840793419&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal securities regulators charged two former chief officers of Kmart (SHLD) with financial fraud Tuesday, claiming they misled investors about the company's financial condition in the months leading up to bankruptcy. Former CEO Charles Conaway and former CFO John McDonald are both responsible for false and misleading disclosure about Kmart's liquidity in the company's financial statement for the third quarter and nine months ended Oct. 31, 2001, the SEC said. Kmart acquired Sears in November 2004 and trades under the Sears name. Shares were recently up 84 cents to $137.45.

[UpInArms]

30. Profts before Safety in Medicine

Boston Scientific slides on FDA warning letter news

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38587.4045696875-840793345&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX) shares tumbled 2.4% to $26.50 after the Food and Drug Administration sent the company a warning letter saying an inspection of its facility in Quincy, Mass., revealed "serious regulatory problems" with the company's medical devices. The letter, dated August 10, specifically mentions Boston Scientific's Vaxcel low profile infusion ports, Taxus stents, and Symmetry catheters. The FDA initially sent a letter about the facility in May, and it addresses the company's response in the latest letter, saying Boston Scientific has failed to address system-wide corrective actions necessary to bring the facility into compliance.

[ozymandius]

32. no 10am bounce

Dow 10,531.78 -38.11 (-0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,139.03 -2.38 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,219.09 -2.64 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 42.09 -0.10 (-0.24%)
NYSE Volume 199,479,000
Nasdaq Volume 194,444,000

[UpInArms]

36. 10:05 EST - bad report - market responds with slight improvement

Dow 10,542.11 -27.78 (-0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,140.48 -0.93 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,219.05 -2.68 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 42.11 -0.08 (-0.19%)

NYSE Volume 226,194,000
Nasdaq Volume 219,531,000

[UpInArms]

39. blather - "strong" dollar at fault (?)

10:00AM: Equities continue to trade with a sense of nervousness as sector leadership remains mixed... Pacing the way lower has been Materials, as a stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities less attractive... Financial has been under pressure amid the departure of another key executive at Citigroup (C 43.70 -0.50) while weakness in medical equipment has weighed on Health Care... Boston Scientific (BSX 25.91 -1.24) has received an FDA warning letter on Taxus stents while Guidant (GDT 72.07 -0.18) has been downgraded at Keybanc...

Energy, however, has traded higher as ongoing supply concerns lift oil prices to $66/bbl while an analyst upgrade on FPL Group (FPL 43.22 +0.81) has helped the Utilities sector extend yesterday's gains... DJTA -0.7, DJUA +0.3, DOT -0.4, Nasdaq 100 -0.2, Russell 2000 +0.1, SOX +0.1, S&P Midcap 400 -0.1, XOI +0.1, NYSE Adv/Dec 1339/1165, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1178/1178

[54anickel]

44. Damn, corps cutting back on the notion of repatriating foreign funds?

That 5% tax is gonna be a wash for the bump in revenues they'd show? Buck's gotta get back down well below 85 to make it worthwhile? :shrug:

[54anickel]

35. Moving The World Toward A Global Tax and Currency (Tinfoil recommended)

Very long

http://www.vivelecanada.ca/article.php/20050820115726592

snip>

The Bank for International Settlements I have had the privilege of covering eight Bank for International Settlements annual meetings, since 1997, with the exception of 2004. During that time, I have interviewed on an annual basis the head economist. I have had numerous interviews with the managing director of the Financial Stability Forum and an exclusive interview with the new BIS Managing Director, Dr. Malcolm Knight, in 2003. I find it interesting that the theme of this year's annual report was on "disturbing patterns of uneven growth worldwide." While the BIS cites household debt at historic highs and low savings rates in America, as opposed to other countries of the world, the report concentrated on the "disturbing patterns of uneven growth." The BIS cited three cycles of highs and lows. The first began in the 1970's, when the dollar was taken off the gold standard. Head economist, Mr. Bill White told me that the change in the gold standard was very important in world affairs. The second cycle began in the mid-1980's, ending in a property bust; and the current cycle began in the mid-1990s. All Americans should be concerned about this report, as the world's bankers are signaling the end of the third cycle, which can only mean higher interest rates, as they withdraw money from the banking system. This comes at a time of higher oil prices which only enforces the inflationary spiral. It is the BIS that has created the uneven cycles of growth. With a floating currency system of PAPER, you can do whatever you want. If you have a great deal of money you can create the highs and lows of any countries currency just by buying or selling it. Heaven help all of us!

Furthermore, household savings is not evident in the U.S. to the same extent that it is in the Asian countries. World national savings rose to 25% of Gross Domestic Product or about 1% point more than the annual average rate for the decade. This was due to the higher savings habits in the developed world, and in particular, China where savings rose 48%. High debt-to-income ratios and low savings in the U.S. do not bode well for Americans. Furthermore, the U.S. and China accounted for half of the world's growth, the euro area and Japan have much slower growth, and they stated that the prospect of reducing America's fiscal deficit is not encouraging. Citing concerns over disinflation, the BIS stressed the need for interest rates to rise in order to slow consumer spending. Mr. White explained, "The time has come for a measured withdrawal of the stimulus that has been put into the system." What he is saying is that it is time for the Fed to withdraw some of the huge amounts of money that it injected into the banking system that created 45 year low interest rates.

Now the U.S. is in the process of another "orderly reversal." The Federal Reserve has increased interest rates TEN TIMES in 4 months to 3.5%. Currently prime rate is 6.5% which is the highest in four years. By the end of the year, prime is expected to be at 7.25% which means three more point increases. With this increase, the fed funds rate is now back to the level prevailing before September 11, 2001. The Fed cut the rate to 1 percent by mid-2003 and started tightening in June 2004.

snip>

The BIS recommended what several academics have suggested by way of establishing a single international currency or, perhaps. moving to regional currency blocks, such as the dollar, euro, and renimbi/yen. (This is the first time I have seen renimbi and yen tied together. What it indicates is the growing power of the renimbi over the yen. )

History of Global or Regional Currency Amazing! Why is the Bank for International Settlements talking a global or regional currency, but ABC, NBC, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal and The Financial Times are not? Since I subscribe to The Financial Times, I was surprised that the only thing it reported was Bill White's comment about "an orderly reversal."

snip>

On September 30, 2004 I interviewed former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker who told me that a "globalized world needed an international currency." When I asked him if he meant the Special Drawing Right-SDR, which is a basket of currencies comprised of the dollar (0.577), Euro (0.426), Japanese yen (21) and British pound (0.0984) (amounts found on page 193 of the BIS 2005 Annual Report), the dear boy turned his back on me. Please realize what this meant. He is almost to seven feet tall while I am five feet tall! In an interview with BIS head economist, Bill White, in August, 2004, I asked him why the BIS was changing to the Special Drawing Right which is the currency used by the International Monetary Fund, instead of using the gold franc. He replied,

snip>

At the BIS 2005 press briefing, I was the only reporter to ask about a global or regional currency. When I asked if the regional currency would be a stepping stone to a global currency, as suggested by Messrs. Mundell, Frankel and Volcker, BIS Managing Director Dr. Malcolm Knight told me:

The question you ask is not an easy one about r regional currencies. Global imbalances are a result of very high savings levels relative to investment levels in a number of emerging market countries and is what is allowing the very large current account deficit of the U.S. to be financed rather smoothly most of the time. What this means is that the policies and the changes in behavior that are needed to adjust these imbalances are real. We need a rise in savings in certain countries which have low savings. That can come partly from policies such as tax incentives to saving. I think that movements to regional currencies are a long run consideration.

more... :tinfoilhat:

[AnneD]

79. Cripes,

One currency... OK I am not a religious nut, but I seem to hear an alarm go off....something about the Book Of Revelations, rise of the antichrist. Can't decide if I need to put on the tinfoil or change my Sunday plans......

[54anickel]

46. A Flawed Mandate

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=45773

snip>

Some say that the Greenspan Fed has been "fighting" inflation, and that is why it has remained low. This is far from the truth. Paul Volcker "fought" inflation by raising interest rates to near 20% and inducing a recession. The Greenspan tenure at the Fed has been marked by moderate energy prices and inexpensive imported goods from Asia, which have offset other rising prices to keep overall consumer prices relatively low. Some statistical slight-of-hand with inflation calculations and deliberately misleading reporting of inflation (i.e., emphasizing "core" inflation) has helped keep a lid on "reported" consumer prices as well.

Both of the first two factors, inexpensive energy and imports, are beyond the control of the Fed and are not likely to continue.

The Fundamental Error

The Federal Reserve has a three-part mandate for monetary policy - maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates (it seems "maximum sustainable growth" used to be included here, but no longer). The fundamental error by the Greenspan Fed has been to make monetary conditions overly stimulative in order to facilitate job creation, while believing that it was achieving price stability.

While statistically, these mandates have largely been achieved in recent years, the failure to address asset prices and to consider the effects of trade and currency policies on import prices has enabled the creation of huge asset bubbles and trade deficits, while resulting in job creation of increasingly poor quality. The apparently mistaken belief that energy prices would stay low indefinitely will likely turn out to be simply a case of good timing for Mr. Greenspan and bad timing for his successor.

Collectively, these factors - asset prices, trade and currency policies, and energy costs - have painted a misleading picture of price stability, particularly over the last ten years, which the Fed has failed to recognize. Or, perhaps it has recognized these factors but has chosen to ignore them - for political or other reasons.

more...

[UpInArms]

48. info on the Has-Been Partisan Hack "meetings" with *Co WH

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/05/fed_chiefs_cale.html

excerpt:

Mr. Greenspan had 149 political meetings in 2001 - 2.9 per week. This grew to 161 (3.1 per week) in 2002 and 170 (3.3 per week) in 2003.

Thus, the most recent three-year period of 2001-2003 averaged 160 meetings, or 3.1 weekly, compared with just 96, or 1.8 weekly, during 1996-98. This can be interpreted to mean that Mr. Greenspan has become 67% "more political" over this period.

This is a significant finding.

In the 1996-2000 period it was apparently necessary for the chairman to visit the White House about 12 times per year, or once per month. For no apparent reason, Mr. Greenspan's visits to the White House tripled from just 12 in 2000 to 37 in 2001, when Bush took office. Starting in January 2001, the same month Mr. Greenspan began cutting rates and flip-flopped on the Bush tax cuts, he visited the White House at least three times per month, with the only slowdown in June and July of that year.

What were previously monthly meetings continued to skyrocket to over one per week in both 2002 (55 meetings) and 2003 (68 meetings).

These White House meetings since 2001 were with officials at the highest level, something Mr. Greenspan did not do in 2000 or apparently since 1996 based on his monthly meetings there. For example, in 2003 he met with the President once, Vice President Cheney seven times, Condoleezza Rice six times, and Chief of Staff Andy Card three times. In March 2003 he had 14 White House meetings, and in July 2003 he met with six members of the Cabinet, including Colin Powell.

Such increasingly frequent meetings at the most senior level, including the Oval Office, are appropriate for a politician but not a central banker, whose political independence is paramount. The noteworthy increase in these meetings since 2001 is puzzling and problematic.

...more...

[54anickel]

52. Transition concerns or BFEE/Plutocrats agenda? Inquiring minds

and all...I've got to stop delving into the tinfoil stuff. This is scary after reading that long :tinfoilhat: piece on global a currency.

[54anickel]

47. Update 1: Volvo Car to Slash Up to 1,500 Jobs

http://www.forbes.com/business/businesstech/feeds/ap/2005/08/23/ap2188837.html

Volvo Car Corp. will slash between 1,000 and 1,500 jobs as part of an effort to cut costs by $131 million this year, a spokesman said Tuesday.

The automaker, which is owned by Ford Motor Co., has been hit hard by a weak dollar, rising raw materials prices and stiff competition in North America and Europe, Volvo spokesman Olle Axelsson said.

All of Volvo's operations will be affected by the cost-cutting package, but most of the job cuts will be at the car maker's facilities in Goteborg, in southwestern Sweden, Axelsson said.

bit more short blurb...

[UpInArms]

49. 10:40 EST numbers and (knee-jerk) blather

Dow 10,546.74 -23.15 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,141.02 -0.39 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,219.82 -1.91 (-0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.194 -0.25 (-0.59%)

NYSE Volume 400,407,000
Nasdaq Volume 361,444,000

10:30AM: Knee-jerk reaction on the heels of housing data sends the indices to session lows, but the market almost as quickly bounces back amid further analysis of the data... July existing home sales fell 2.6% to 7.16 mln (consensus 7.25 mln) from a stronger record level of 7.35 mln in June... But even though the moderate July decline was anticipated, price trends remain very strong (e.g. median home prices are 14% higher from a year ago) as low mortgage rates and improved job growth continue to support demand... NYSE Adv/Dec 1295/1529, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1057/1519

[54anickel]

50. Few Bargains in Retail REITs

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscfoc/markets/realestate/10238910.html

snip>

But what if rising credit card rates and high gas prices do end up dampening consumer spending at the mall, and not just at Wal-Mart? In the short term, it doesn't spell much danger for mall owners, although rent spreads could eventually be squeezed.

Mall tenants pay both a base rent and a "percentage rent," which is a portion of their sales. On a quarterly basis, typically only 3% of mall REITs' net operating income comes from percentage rents. Even if spending slows down, percentage rents might drop, but retailers are still on the hook for base rents.

The real danger is if consumer spending slows down for a lengthy period of time; that would force retailers to stop expanding their space needs or even close stores, says UBS analyst Ian Weissman. This could shrink overall tenant demand for space and give landlords less pricing power for new rents, and that would depress REIT earnings. Bankrupt tenants create a much bigger problem for landlords, because landlords are left footing the bill.

But right now, store closures and bankruptcy filings are running at historical lows. In the second quarter, both were down about 50% year over year, according to research by UBS.

"I don't think I've ever seen fundamentals this good," Weissman says, noting that rent growth is strong and that occupancies are pushing near historical highs.

Mall REIT fundamentals are expected to remain strong, but investors should be scratching their heads about whether there is any money left to be made in the high-priced sector. "At some level you have to start separating fundamentals from valuations," says Weissman, who is currently skeptical on the retail REIT sector because of high valuations.

more...

Just had a flashback to the 80's with all those unfinished or empty malls and developments littering the landscape.

[UpInArms]

51. It's Your Money: GE lands $2.4B fighter-jet engine pact

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8C5FTI80.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down&chan=db

AUG. 23 6:47 A.M. ET General Electric Co. has won a $2.4 billion contract to develop an engine for the military's next-generation stealth jet fighter.

The contract is the largest military developmental contract in about 20 years for Fairfield, Conn.-based GE's jet-engine division, GE Aircraft Engines, which is based in this Cincinnati suburb and employs about 6,800.

GE was named the majority partner in a 60-40 joint venture with British engine-maker Rolls-Royce. The deal was announced late Monday by the Department of Defense under a Navy program that is administering development of the Lockheed Martin F-35, known as the Joint Strike Fighter.

<snip>

GE Aircraft Engines is expected to earn $13.3 billion in revenue this year, with about $3.8 billion, or 28.6 percent, coming from military contracts.

...more...

[Doctor_J]

70. Great. With that money they

can hire a few more BushWhores to work at NBC, MSNBC, CNBC. What a circle-jerk our entire system is.

[UpInArms]

53. Rats Leaving Sinking Ship? Citigroup Exodus Continues

Analysts hope for end to exodus at Citigroup

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAB6CC3EF-E659-4820-8512-CCA4BE322AA4%7D&siteid=google

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- With the announcement of a second high-level departure from Citigroup in as many months and a slew of others within the past two years, analysts said they hope this marks the end of an exodus from the bank.

Marge Magner, chairman and CEO of the financial-services giant's global consumer division -- which accounts for 61% of earnings per share -- will leave Citigroup (C: news, chart, profile) at the end of September, the bank said late Monday.

She said she wants to consider options outside of financial services. See full story.

"No sugar coating -- the loss of Marge is disappointing," UBS analysts said. "Given consumer's importance and that everyone liked Marge, we'd expect investors to be a little concerned about the ongoing turnover at Citi."

Shares of Citigroup, a Dow Jones Industrial Average component, fell 24 cents to $43.96 in early dealings.

Magner's decision to leave follows a similar move by Robert Willumstad, who resigned last month as president and chief operating officer to pursue his goal of leading a public company. See archived story.

...more...

[54anickel]

54. Air Force database breached (DOH!!!)

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3321095

WASHINGTON - Social Security numbers, birth dates and other private data on roughly 33,000 Air Force officers — about half the branch's officer corps — were stolen from a military computer database, the service informed its personnel late last week.

Officials of the Air Force Personnel Center, based at Randolph Air Force Base in San Antonio, said the intrusion occurred sometime in May or June, apparently by someone who used a legitimate user's log-in information to gain access to the system.

snip>

The theft is the latest in a spate of data breaches over the past two years involving government agencies, universities, commercial firms and data brokers, resulting in the exposure of tens of millions of consumers to potential fraud.

The Air Force information was contained in an online system designed to help officers manage their assignments and careers. The Air Force detected the breach after "we determined that there was one individual who was reviewing a lot of these records ... it was very uncharacteristic," Maj. Gen. Anthony Przybyslawski said.

more...

[UpInArms]

55. Northwest Airlines Denies Reality with Propaganda

Northwest says it avoids big disruptions

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-08-23T004219Z_01_N22481321_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-AIRLINES-NORTHWEST-DC.XML

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Northwest Airlines (NWAC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) avoided big disruptions in its flight schedule on Monday in the first full test of its ability to weather a strike by the union representing mechanics and related workers, the company said.

The airline hoped to complete 96 percent of its 1,473 scheduled flights on the first weekday since 4,400 members of the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association walked off the job in a dispute over proposed concessions.

"We are continuing to experience a normal operating day," said Northwest spokeswoman Jennifer Bagdade.

The Federal Aviation Administration reported that flights by all airlines at Northwest hub airports in Minneapolis, Detroit and Memphis were operating at or close to schedule.

The carrier is running a fall schedule, which usually begins after Labor Day, rather than a busier summer lineup.

While the airline would not disclose its on-time performance or service glitches, its Web site revealed some problems with delays and cancellations. The union also said the carrier was struggling.

...more...

CNN Headlines tell a different tale:

Delays reportedly mount at Northwest
Day 3 of mechanics' strike at No. 4 airline brings increasing delays according to surveys.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/23/news/fortune500/northwest_delays/

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - More than six out of 10 Northwest Airlines flights were late Monday, the airline's first weekday since it was struck by its mechanics union, according to one survey of the struck airline's operations.

Other surveys are showing roughly half the Northwest flights are flying late, although only a small percentage of flights are being cancelled.

<snip>

While the airline says that its use of replacement workers, outside contractors and management employees has allowed it to maintain close to normal operations, the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association charges its three-day strike is causing significant operational problems for the nation's No. 4 airline.

One survey, conducted by business travel site Joe Sent Me.com, only 37.5 percent of 99 flights surveyed arrived on time. The survey also found that the average delay of the flights that were late was a bit less than an hour, or a slight improvement from the hour-plus average delays found in identical surveys Saturday and Sunday.

The worst delay found in the business travel Web site's survey was a 6-hour, 29-minute delay on Northwest Flight 411 from Flint, Mich., to Minneapolis St. Paul, on what was scheduled to be a 41 minute flight.

...more...

[UpInArms]

56. China to be free trade driver-academic

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-08-23T101353Z_01_N23522785_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-ECONOMY-TRADE-CHINA-DC.XML

BEIJING (Reuters) - China is likely to eclipse the World Trade Organization and regional market-opening pacts to become the main driver of freer global trade in the 21st century, a prominent trade academic said on Tuesday.

Foreign critics blast Beijing for shutting foreigners out of its markets and for allegedly unfair trade practices ranging from subsidized loans to intellectual property violations.

But Razeen Sally of the London School of Economics said China could set the pace of trade liberalization by tearing down barriers of its own accord and challenging others to follow suit -- much as Britain did in its imperial heyday 150 years ago.

"The image I'd ask you to bear in mind is of China assuming the role that Britain had in the second half of the 19th century -- in other words, China as the unilateral engine of freer trade that sets up competitive and emulative effects not least in the neighborhood of South and Southeast Asia," Sally told a conference organized by Beijing University and the LSE.

Sally said there was already evidence of this happening.

...more...

[UpInArms]

57. 11:08 EST knees still jerking

Dow 10,530.49 -39.40 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,138.15 -3.26 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,217.70 -4.03 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.203 -0.16 (-0.38%)

NYSE Volume 521,909,000
Nasdaq Volume 459,502,000

(adding blather on edit)

11:00AM: Major averages retrace earlier lows even as oil prices reverse course and slip below $65/bbl... While falling oil prices ($64.85/bbl -$0.80) are certainly a positive for stocks, a subsequent reversal in Energy (-0.7%) - a sector providing the largest contribution (with 42% EPS growth) to the S&P 500's overall growth rate in Q2 - has taken some steam out of recent recovery efforts... ..XOI (-0.8%). ..OIX (-0.6%). ..OSX (-0.5%)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1334/1586, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1198/1527

[UpInArms]

59. Insider Deals: Who was behind the CAFTA push?

Outsider Gutierrez Helped by Old Bush Hands

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/22/AR2005082201261.html?referrer=email

When Carlos M. Gutierrez took over the Commerce Department in February, he was new to government and without a stable of federal associates to draw from to help him run the sprawling agency.

Many of the advisers he brought on board did not have any connection to either the agency or the secretary -- but nearly all had long-standing ties to the White House, through President Bush's two presidential campaigns, his governorship in Texas or his father's administration.

Gutierrez has charged a small group of aides, led by David A. Sampson, the agency's second in command, with helping him steer a depar tment that boasts a $6.5 billion budget, more than 38,000 employees and disparate offices including the International Trade Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Census Bureau.

The secretary's aides said they have spent the bulk of his tenure working to win approval for the Central American Free Trade Agreement that Bush signed into law Aug. 2. Now, Gutierrez's office is focusing on protecting American intellectual property rights abroad -- an issue his advisers said was driven home to him when, on a recent trip to China, he was offered a copy of the newest "Star Wars" movie for $1.

The agency identified the following individuals as Gutierrez's inner circle:

...more...

[patcox2]

61. Hi, marketeers, can someone direct me to a mortgage rate chart?

Something that gives rates over the last 3-4 years? I am pondering selling at the top, vis a vis, my house, which has tripled in value over last 5 years, and is located in one of those areas designated "most overvalued" in that USA TOday article last week.

[UpInArms]

62. here are a couple of sites that might help you

http://www.nfsn.com/library/prime.htm

Prime Rate	
 	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	
Jan 1	8.50%	8.50%	8.25%	8.50%	7.75%	8.50%	9.50%	4.75%	4.25%	4.00%	5.25%	
Feb 1	9.00%	8.25%	8.25%	8.50%	7.75%	8.50%	8.50%	4.75%	4.25%	4.00%	5.25%	
Mar 1	9.00%	8.25%	8.25%	8.50%	7.75%	8.75%	8.50%	4.75%	4.25%	4.00%	5.50%	
Apr 1	9.00%	8.25%	8.50%	8.50%	7.75%	9.00%	8.00%	4.75%	4.25%	4.00%	5.75%	
May 1	9.00%	8.25%	8.50%	8.50%	7.75%	9.00%	7.50%	4.75%	4.25%	4.00%	5.75%	
Jun 1	9.00%	8.25%	8.50%	8.50%	7.75%	9.50%	7.00%	4.75%	4.25%	4.00%	6.00%	
Jul 1	9.00%	8.25%	8.50%	8.50%	8.00%	9.50%	6.75%	4.75%	4.00%	4.25%	6.25%	
Aug 1	8.75%	8.25%	8.50%	8.50%	8.00%	9.50%	6.75%	4.75%	4.00%	4.25%	6.25%	
Sep 1	8.75%	8.25%	8.50%	8.50%	8.25%	9.50%	6.50%	4.75%	4.00%	4.50%	 	
Oct 1	8.75%	8.25%	8.50%	8.25%	8.25%	9.50%	6.00%	4.75%	4.00%	4.75%	 	
Nov 1	8.75%	8.25%	8.50%	8.00%	8.25%	9.50%	5.50%	4.75%	4.00%	4.75%	 	
Dec 1	8.75%	8.25%	8.50%	7.75%	8.50%	9.50%	5.00%	4.25%	4.00%	5.00%	 

and

http://mortgage-x.com/general/mortgage_indexes.asp

[UpInArms]

63. 150 New Orleans school employees cut, more to come (1,000 total)

http://www.klfy.com/Global/story.asp?S=3754896

NEW ORLEANS The Orleans Parish school system is cutting 150 employees, the first round of what a school board member expects will be at least a thousand job reductions as it tries to cut 48 (m) million dollars from its budget.

Board member Jimmy Fahrenholtz says he thinks the numbers will actually be between a thousand and 12-hundred employees before the layoffs end.Letters to affected employees are scheduled to go out tomorrow.Bill Roberti, the new district chief restructuring officer installed by financial turnaround firm Alvarez and Marsal, confirmed the layoffs, but declined to provide further details.

...more...

[54anickel]

84. Wonderful, no child left behind - that's cuz we're making 'em ALL back

up! How are our "childrens gonna get learnded"?

[UpInArms]

65. 11:46 EST bleeding continues

Dow 10,524.04 -45.85 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,135.25 -6.16 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,216.98 -4.75 (-0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.179 -0.40 (-0.95%)

NYSE Volume 663,007,000
Nasdaq Volume 568,763,000

11:30AM: Little changed since the last update as stocks continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Bonds, however, have continued to climb following the larger than expected decline in July home sales... Benchmark yields on the 10-year note (+7/32) now yield 4.17% - the first time yields have hit that level since July 21 - but so far investors have failed to take notice... NYSE Adv/Dec 1232/1772, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1172/1628

[UpInArms]

69. 12:04 EST hanging on to 10,500 by a toenail

Dow 10,500.95 -68.94 (-0.65%)
Nasdaq 2,131.43 -9.98 (-0.47%)
S&P 500 1,214.75 -6.98 (-0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 4.177 -0.42 (-1.00%)

NYSE Volume 730,835,000
Nasdaq Volume 627,800,000

edited to update - lost its grip

Dow 10,498.08 -71.81 (-0.68%)
Nasdaq 2,131.25 -10.16 (-0.47%)
S&P 500 1,214.58 -7.15 (-0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 4.176 -0.43 (-1.02%)

NYSE Volume 735,620,000
Nasdaq Volume 631,754,000

[54anickel]

71. Lunchtime pixies better get a move on before traders get back to their

desks.

12:13

Dow 10,504.05 -65.84 (-0.62%)
Nasdaq 2,132.86 -8.55 (-0.40%)
S&P 500 1,215.47 -6.26 (-0.51%)
10-yr Bond 4.176% -0.04
30-yr Bond 4.39% -0.04
NYSE Volume 758,760,000
Nasdaq Volume 648,975,000

12:00PM : Market remains under modest pressure midday as a lack of sector leadership and a limited batch of news offers investors few reasons to own equities... Not even a pullback in oil prices and falling bond yields have been enough to entice buyers to look for bargains following the S&P's biggest weekly disappointment (-0.9%) in two months...
Crude oil futures ($65.10/bbl -$0.55) have fallen amid speculation that the end of the peak summer driving season will lessen demand for gas while the 10-year note has climbed 8 ticks to yield 4.17% following a larger than expected drop in July home sales - a report that normally has little impact on overall trading... But amid a dearth of market-moving data, a 2.6% decline in July existing home sales to 7.16 mln (consensus 7.25 mln), from a stronger record level of 7.35 mln in June, has so far been enough of a catalyst to underpin a sense of nervousness that has pushed eight out of ten economic sectors... Pacing the way lower has been Energy, as consolidation in the oil has prompted investors to lock some of the sector's 27% year-to-date advance...

The Materials sector has lost ground as a stronger greenback has made dollar-denominated commodities less attractive... Despite a decline in borrowing costs, weakness in banks and brokerage have weighed on Financial... Citigroup (C 43.66 -0.54) has lost 1.2% following the departure of a key executive... Health Care has also been an influential leader to the downside, being dragged lower after Boston Scientific (BSX 26.10 -1.05) received an FDA warning letter on Taxus stents...

Minimizing sector losses, however, has been strength in Eli Lilly (LLY 53.61 +0.90) - a development partner with Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN 27.76 +5.83) which has soared 27% on positive clinical news for newly-launched Byetta diabetes drug... Technology has also been under pressure, as losses in semiconductor, hardware and software offset gains in networking, which has climbed following a Prudential upgrade on Lucent Technologies (LU 2.99 +0.12)... The Utilities sector, on the other hand, has traded higher, getting a boost from analyst upgrades on Southern Company (SO 33.93 +0.19) and FPL Group (FPL 43.37 +0.96) and a decline in benchmark yields which has made dividend-paying stocks more attractive...DJTA -1.3, DJUA +0.3, DOT -0.5, Nasdaq 100 -0.6, Russell 2000 -0.6, SOX -0.5, S&P Midcap 400 -0.4, XOI -1.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 1222/1860, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1104/1739

[UpInArms]

72. twinkie post with 54anickel

[UpInArms]

74. Siebel Systems still in layoff mode

http://www.insidebayarea.com/businessnews/onthemove/ci_2965197

Siebel Systems Inc., the world's No. 2 maker of customer-service software, reiterated plans to cut $10 million in costs this quarter and said it will keep eliminating jobs and trimming research spending in the coming months.

"We're taking the right actions to improve our revenue performance over time," Chief Executive Officer George Shaheen said Monday on a call with analysts. While the company may consider acquisitions, "our primary focus remains on improving our organic operations."

Pressure to reduce costs gathered steam after San Mateo-based Siebel failed to clinch orders from large customers such as government agencies in the past two quarters. Shaheen took over in April after the company ousted former CEO Mike Lawrie, who held the post less than a year, and in July announced a job-cutting program.

<snip>

Siebel lost the lead in the $10.5 billion market for programs that run customer-services functions to SAP AG in 2004 after four years of declining sales, according to Boston-based AMR Research Inc. The lineup at Walldorf, Germany-based SAP includes programs that handle accounting and personnel, products Siebel doesn't offer.

...more...

[ozymandius]

78. still red - with slight improvement

1:08
Dow 10,519.58 -50.31 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,135.31 -6.10 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,217.04 -4.69 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 41.81 -0.38 (-0.90%)
NYSE Volume 911,341,000
Nasdaq Volume 761,672,000

[ozymandius]

81. numbers and blather

1:23
Dow 10,509.55 -60.34 (-0.57%)
Nasdaq 2,133.68 -7.73 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,215.85 -5.88 (-0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 41.80 -0.39 (-0.92%)
NYSE Volume 954,055,000
Nasdaq Volume 794,099,000

1:00PM: More of the same for stocks as the major averages continue to chalk up losses... With earnings season almost completely over, as more than 95% of the S&P 500 has reported, investors continue to focus much of the attention on the day's only economic report... Even though tomorrow's July new home sales (consensus 1.33 mln) report carries more weight, the fact that a 7.16 mln annual rate in existing home sales missed economists' expectations of 7.25 mln seems of have stirred up concerns of whether the disappointment is a precursor to the housing "bubble" popping...

To that end, homebuilders remain one of the worst-performing S&P groups (-2.1%) while the PHLX Housing Sector Index (HGX 521.43 -8.55) remains poised to close lower for an eighth straight day and nearly 13% off its all-time high...NYSE Adv/Dec 1126/2021, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1066/1833

[ozymandius]

82. Stocks Slip As Oil Prices Stay Volatile

Stocks Drop on Lower Existing Home Sales Data and Oil Prices Remaining Volatile

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks fell Tuesday as existing home sales dropped and oil prices remained volatile.

Investors sold off stocks in early trading and continued selling after the National Association of Realtors said sales of previously owned homes dropped 2.6 percent in July as mortgage rates crept up. But even with the decline, sales were the third-highest level on record.

The latest snapshot of housing activity suggested that the sizzling housing market may be cooling slightly. Wall Street has been closely watching home sales, worried that the housing boom is nearing its end. Jobs in the construction and at home improvement retailers would be affected by a contraction and consumer spending could take a hit if home prices decline, since a raft of home equity loans have put cash in consumers' pockets.

Still, in late August trading, it doesn't take much to bring stocks down. No major economic reports are due this week, most companies' second-quarter earnings are out and many investors are on vacation, said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at Spencer Clarke LLC .

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050823/wall_street.html?.v=17

[54anickel]

86. 2:40 and picking up nicely (quick break from painting for a peek)

Dow 10,552.14 -17.75 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,142.51 +1.10 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,220.80 -0.93 (-0.08%)
10-yr Bond 4.181% -0.04
30-yr Bond 4.4% -0.03
NYSE Volume 1,205,338,000
Nasdaq Volume 993,996,000

2:30PM: Indices continue to pare a day of losses, as the closing of commodities trading provides some relief for investors... Even though crude oil futures have unofficially closed up $0.10 at $65.75/bbl, perhaps the fact that oil finishing off its highs and an improvement in the Energy sector has helped participants look for bargains in underperforming sectors like Technology, which has recently turned positive... NYSE Adv/Dec 1333/1872, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1223/1700

2:00PM: Market off its worst levels, spearheaded by improvements in Technology, but still trades in negative territory... A turnaround in Software (+0.2%), most notably Microsoft (MSFT 26.95 +0.04), coupled with a 2.8% surge in Adobe Systems (ADBE 26.90 +0.72), have provided the bulk of recent support... However, weakness from bellwethers like INTC (-0.8%), IBM (-0.6%) and DELL (-1.3%) have prevented the Tech sector from turning positive...SOX -0.1, NYSE Adv/Dec 1199/1995, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1189/1750

1:30PM: Stocks still mired in relatively tight trading ranges as market breadth remains negative... As reflected in the A/D line, decliners on the NYSE outpace advancers by a 19 to 11 margin while declining issues on the Nasdaq hold a 9 to 5 edge over advancing issues... A more than 2-to-1 ratio of down to up volumes, however, suggests an even more bearish bias... Adding to today's struggles have been the indices' inability to find initial support; but lighter than usual volume is providing little conviction behind the market's broad-based move to the downside... NYSE Adv/Dec 1182/1988, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1097/1807

[54anickel]

87. That was short lived.

[Maeve]

88. Final numbers

Dow 10,519.58 -50.31 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,137.25 -4.16 (-0.19%)
S&P 500 1,217.59 -4.14 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 41.87 -0.32 (-0.76%)
NYSE Volume 1,659,340,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,341,087,000

[ozymandius]

90. As I was going to say:

It's all over but the blather. I need to run fetch my boy from school. Have a great evening!

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

92. blather

Close: Stocks opened in mixed fashion but closed lower amid the absence of strong sector leadership, spurred in part by housing bubble concerns... Now that earnings season has basically come to a close, as more than 95% of the S&P 500 has reported quarterly results, investors, having very little in the way of news to sift through as it was, paid extra attention to an economic report that typically has minimal impact on overall market action... July existing home sales fell 2.6% to 7.16 mln, checking in below a 7.25 mln annual rate, from a stronger record level of 7.35 mln in June...

Even though sales were the third highest on record, as low mortgage rates and improved job growth continue to support demand, the fact that housing supply rose to 2.75 mln - the most in 17 years - raised worries that that hot real estate market may beginning to cool off... To that end, Homebuilding stocks (-1.1%) closed lower for the eighth consecutive session and about 12% off its all-time high (7/29), weighing on the Consumer Discretionary sector...

Of the other seven economic sectors to close lower, Materials turned in the day's worst performance amid weakness in Steel (-2.9%), Aluminum (-2.4%), Paper (-2.4%) and Chemicals (-2.1%)... Even though a decline in bond yields often makes interest-rate sensitive issues, like banks and brokers, more attractive, reports of another departing key executive - Marjorie Magner - at Citigroup (C 43.56 -0.64) weighed heavily on Financial... Of the 84 components making up the influential S&P Financial sector, Citigroup holds the largest weighting (10.2%)... The benchmark 10-year note closed up 6 ticks, knocking benchmark yields to their lowest levels (4.18%) in about a month, following a larger than expected drop in July home sales...

:hi:

[Maeve]

93. Beat me to it!

That's what I get for making supper... :D