With Eyes on Iraq, Arabs Fear Spread of Federalism--Daily Star

[Gloria]

From the new World Media Watch up now at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical
Tomorrow at Buzzflash.com



1//The Daily Star, Lebanon Wednesday, August 24, 2005

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=17899



WITH EYES ON IRAQ, ARABS FEAR SPREAD OF FEDERALISM

By Agence France Presse (AFP)

AMMAN: As Kurds and Shiites in Iraq push for a federal constitution, fears are rising in the Arab world that the urge to create separate states could spread in countries with religious and ethnic minorities, analysts said.



When minority groups feel oppressed or deem that their rights are restricted by the centralized states in which they live, they are drawn to notions of autonomy or federalism so that they can better exercise their rights, Arab experts said.



Therefore, the Arab world is keeping a close eye on the outcome of demands for a federalist Iraq as it creates its first constitution since the fall of ex-dictator Saddam Hussein, said Nabil Abdel-Fattah, an analyst from Cairo's Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.



"The result of the fight - between Sunnis who are against federalism in Iraq and Kurds who are for it - will have a decisive influence on how other countries' crises play out, from west of Asia to the Middle East and Iran," he said.


(SNIP)


The trend toward federalism, if it catches on, could incite minorities - from Berbers in North Africa to various ethnic and religious groups in Lebanon to the sizable Kurdish populations in Syria, Turkey and Iran - to seek their own states, said Hassan al-Barari, a researcher at Amman's Center for Strategic Studies.



"In developing countries, federalism amounts to a step toward splitting up," Barari said.

MUCH MORE


("Fatal" for Lebanon, for example)

[mom cat]

1. Wonder how Turkey feels about their big ally - the US - now?

[liberalpragmatist]

2. Well, on this issue, they're wrong

Whatever you feel about Iraq, Turkey SHOULD give its Kurds autonomy and basic human rights.

Moreover, didn't Turkey oppose the war in Iraq?

[mom cat]

4. I totally agree. I did not realize the implications of my post until I

read your comment. I do believe that the Kurds deserve more autonomy and that Turkey thought that the US support was at least partially in exchange for turning a blind eye to "the Kurdish problem". I think that they could see the inevitable emergence of Kurdish strength as a result of US intervention in Iraq, hence their denial of the use of their territory for the invasion. The pact between the two devils is unraveling as are the US-European insanely drawn national boundaries. If it were not for the geopolitical significance of the region and, of course, oil, the boundaries would probably fall into more ethnically defined countries. I am afraid that the tension between the former two factors on one hand and the striving for ethnically defined countries will lead to massive bloodshed and destruction.

[liberalpragmatist]

9. Yeah

And the other problem is that after years of the borders being where they are, there are no clean lines. There are millions of Kurds in non-Kurdish-majority areas, millions of Shi'ites in Baghdad and millions of Sunnis in Southern Iraq.

If there is civil war, expect massive ethnic cleansing, a major refugee crisis and even genocide.

Not pretty. For Iraq's sake, I hope they can avoid civil war and piece together a workable federal scheme.

[mom cat]

10. Me too! I have a hard time believing that disaster will be averted,

especially with the US and the UK stirring the pot!

[Igel]

3. What a novel idea, federalism.

After all, almost every single one of the minority ethnicities has been there longer than the Arabs (although most Arabs outside of Arabia proper are really just the older ethnicities with an adstratum of Arab genes, names, and all-important language/religion/culture). Or, like the Armenians, trucked in in a Golden Horde/Ivan the Terrible/Ottoman Empire attempt at population fragmentation and ethnic cleansing.

It's a loss of power; and might lead to a statement from the minorities that they were oppressed. How horrible *that* would be.

[bemildred]

5. I predict this will not be a good century for empires. nt

[K-W]

6. I'm crossing my fingers. EOM

[Supersedeas]

7. Do 11th Amendment Conservatives with an onze of integrity relate?

[Javaman]

8. I believe the concept of Federalism will catch on..

And what we will witness will be comparable to the uprising in the various European colonies of the 19th century.