Iraq on brink of meltdown

[bemildred]

The credibility of Iraq's political process was in danger last night as parliament again failed to vote on a draft constitution which a Sunni politician said was "fit only for the bin".

---

The minority Sunnis, who were the masters under Saddam Hussein, are implacably opposed to the federal nature of the constitution. They fear that it will place oil wealth in the hands of the Kurds in the north and the Shia in the south.

---

The speed of the violence underlined that even a "defeated" militia such as Sadr's still has a formidable arsenal and that the security forces are nowhere to be seen when the fighting starts.

Armed clashes broke out in British-controlled Basra before dawn but later subsided. In Amarah, where British troops are also stationed, Sadr supporters were reported to have killed five people when they mortared Badr Brigade headquarters.

News.Telegraph

[babylonsister]

1. More of a reason for us to get the hell out of there IMHO.

It's not working; it hasn't worked; it will never work. You assholes fucked up.

[Eloriel]

3. AND: We Told You So! Lots of people told you so. n/t

[saigon68]

10. "Only fit for the BIN" my take-- ONLY FIT FOR THE BOWL

THE TOILET BOWL

Civil War just around the corner

[Lochloosa]

12. Civil war has already started...IMO

[saigon68]

22. Sadly it has you are right

Massive civil war will commence shortly

[H5N1]

5. No, this is the firestorm bush wants

the only answer (according to bush) is more troops!
we will never leave that country, never

[nolabels]

9. Bush says as long as he is in office

I love it when people get stubborn like this and need two things to happen at the same time :evilgrin:

[JoFerret]

13. Never leave, and there will never be peace

and the oil will not flow until BushCo and the Saudis choose it to.

[belle]

18. I doubt very much he wants this; even he knows it means he fucked up

beyond all repair. More to the point, even (a good number of) the hardcore supporters will finally have to know it, too. If they start a draft that means all the little freepers who don't have rich and powerful connections to get them out of it (i.e. all of them who are of age, or have family who are) suddenly have to put their money where their mouth is. Three guesses whether most of them cheerfully run into the fray or suddenly have an astonishing change of heart about the whole thing.

[H5N1]

25. Bush does not care about the American people

And he doesn't care about dead Americans.
He wants his draft and he wants his invasion of Iran.
We'll see if China and Russia can persuade him otherwise.

[buddysmellgood]

2. I don't see much of a diffference to Americans whether we stay or not

other than more soldiers come home alive if we leave now.

[Maestro]

4. And don't forget that the Shia are now fighting each other

The civil war is just now beginning thanks to pretzelnut's meddling.

[Strelnikov_]

6. "Sadr Has Now Formed Common Cause With The Sunnis . .

. . fearing that federalism will play into the hands of Iran."

Sounds like Kabul on the Tigris, just after the Soviets pulled out.

If this is what the Chimp had in mind, he is even dumber than I imagined. Civil Wars have a way of destabilizing regions, in this case a region holding 2/3rds of the worlds oil reserves.

[DoYouEverWonder]

19. Destabilizing the Region

is what this is all about. Google Michael Ledeen or PNAC. It's all part of the plan.

[bemildred]

21. It's a stupid plan. Every Tom, Dick and Harry has a plan. nt

[beetbox]

7. These three paragraphs pretty well tell the tale

Vietnam on Crack

by Tom Engelhardt

After all, in Iraq, to put events in a bizarre nutshell, the squabbling government leadership just presented (kind of) on deadline a new "constitution" that has blank passages in it and then insisted on taking an extra three days, not allowed for in the present interim constitution, for further "debate." All this despite the intense pressure U.S. "super-ambassador" Zalmay Khalilzad put on the negotiators to make it on time to the deadline, another of the Bush administration's much needed "turning points." (Imagine, a representative of the French king half-running our constitutional convention!) At his Informed Comment blog, Juan Cole has already referred to this as a coup d'état, though the New York Times more politely terms it a "legal sleight of hand." ("The rule of law," writes Cole, "is no longer operating in Iraq, and no pretence of constitutional procedure is being striven for. In essence, the prime minister and president have made a sort of coup, simply disregarding the interim constitution. Given the acquiescence of parliament and the absence of a supreme court , there is no check or balance that could question the writ of the executive.")

 

More important yet, the politicians involved -- many of them exiles, some of them with few roots in Iraq, the Sunnis among them with limited roots in the insurgent Sunni community (and in any case largely cut out of the bargaining process between Kurdish and Shiite politicians) -- are fighting for a retrograde-sounding constitution (religiously based and without a significant emphasis on women's rights) inside Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone. It is a constitution aimed at creating an almost impossibly starved central government guaranteed to control little.

 

Meanwhile, outside the Green Zone, amid a brewing stewpot of internecine killing and incipient civil war, vast parts of the country have simply passed beyond Baghdad's rule, and significant parts of central Iraq seemingly beyond any rule at all. The Kurdish areas in the north have long been autonomous with their own armed militia. In the largely Sunni areas of central Iraq, chaos is the rule, but whole towns like Haditha are now "insurgent citadels," run, as Falluja was less than a year ago, as little retro-Islamic statelets. (Grim as this may be, such statelets can offer -- as Taliban-ruled Afghanistan did after two decades of civil war and chaos -- order of a harsh kind that ensures personal safety for most inhabitants. This is no small thing when conditions are desperate enough.) The Shiite south, on the other hand, has largely fallen under the control of Islamic parties and their armed militias, all allied to one degree or another with the neighboring Iranian fundamentalist regime. In the north and the south, security is increasingly in the hands of local parties, not the central government, or even the occupying forces.

http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=15&ItemID=8575

[bemildred]

8. And unstated:

1.) The US military is mostly in "force protection" posture,
i.e. hiding out to avoid further attrition.

2.) You are probably going to get a war between the nationalists
(Sunni and Mehdi Army) and the Kurd-Iranophile factions, and I'd put
my money on the nationalists right now, but much will depend on
funding and logistics (re-supply). i think there is a good chance
the Kurds will hold onto their autonomy unless Turkey butts in.

3.) Meanwhile I'm sort of hoping our troops don't get caught in the
middle of such a mess with no sure way to tell "allies" from "enemies".

[Nihil]

16. "Kill 'em all and let God sort it out"

> I'm sort of hoping our troops don't get caught in the middle of such
> a mess with no sure way to tell "allies" from "enemies".

Since when has that been a problem?

:eyes:

[bemildred]

17. As a tactical situation it sucks. "Friendly Fire" incidents up the wazoo.

It will be a big problem.

[JoFerret]

14. The medieval fiefdoms of Islam

- that is what BushCo have wrought.
All the slow reforms of the last thirty years, all the secular strengths of the country - gone, washed away in a medieval feudal tide (only with modern weaponry.)

[Pirate Smile]

11. NYT: Charter Talks in Iraq Reach Breaking Point

Charter Talks in Iraq Reach Breaking Point

By DEXTER FILKINS and JAMES GLANZ
Published: August 26, 2005

BAGHDAD, Iraq, Aug. 25 - Talks over the Iraqi constitution reached a breaking point on Thursday, with a parliamentary session to present the document being canceled and President Bush personally calling one of the country's most powerful Shiite leaders in an effort to broker a last-minute deal.

Mr. Bush intervened when some senior Shiite leaders said they had decided to bypass their Sunni counterparts, as well as Iraqi lawmakers, and send the document directly to Iraqi voters for their approval.

The calls by Shiite leaders to ignore the Sunnis' request for changes to the draft constitution provoked threats from the Sunnis that they would urge their people to reject the document when it goes before voters in a national referendum in October.

At day's end, American officials in Washington declared that the Iraqis had made "substantial and real progress" toward a deal on the constitution. And senior Iraqi leaders said they would make a last-ditch effort on Friday to strike a deal.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/26/international/middleeast/26iraq.html?hp&ex=1125028800&en=1dec75d49b36ac82&ei=5094&partner=homepage

[mtnester]

15. All out Civil War would validate a draft for BushCo

mark my words if you like.

Especially when you throw Iran in the mix.

[FreeStateDemocrat]

20. With his poll numbers it would validate impeachment, public is fedup w/war

[H5N1]

23. I agree

Bush will spin this into 'proof' of the
need for a draft.
The draft will start sooner than later.

[VegasWolf]

24. Bush is the War President. He does presidentin with war on his mind! nt