"Forecasters: Katrina aims at Mississippi, Louisiana" - (Oil rigs in path)

[vickitulsa]

This is a real life, real time event that could end up mirroring in many respects the "Oil Storm" faux-documentary program about how a catastrophic rise in U.S. gas prices could occur almost overnight. This show aired on the USA Network a couple of weeks ago, and I would highly recommend it to everyone if and when it is repeated.

That fictional "documentary," done as if after the fact by about a year, began with an incident involving a major hurricane (I think it was a Cat 4) coming ashore in the WORST possible place, causing a crisis in American crude oil production -- AND IMPORT OF FOREIGN OIL which comes in there via supertankers -- and reducing our pipeline and refinery capabilities as well in the Louisiana/Mississippi coastal area.

If you haven't tanked up all your vehicles lately, it would probably be a good idea! I worked in this industry for 33 years, and I can see the writing on the wall as Katrina approaches the coastal United States gaining strength over extraordinarily warm waters in the Gulf.

The Louisiana coastal region is absolutely critical to keeping U.S. crude supplies moving -- and not only because of the monster offshore oil rigs that are producing there, though they are important. The fact that is little known to most citizens is that the amount of gasoline available to Americans normally remains reasonably stable largely because of the entire crude oil acquisition, refinery and pipeline systems in that area.

This CNN article is about the approaching storm Katrina and not as much specifically about the threat to oil rigs, pipeline systems, and coastal refinery and processing plants. But if you use common sense and put two and two together, it's easy to see how Katrina could wreak havoc with American gas prices.

From the CNN article:

Hurricane Katrina became stronger and larger Saturday as it churned in the Gulf of Mexico, where forecasters say it is poised to deal a powerful blow to the Mississippi Gulf Coast and southeast Louisiana -- and possibly New Orleans -- next week.

... The storm is blamed for seven deaths in southeast Florida and was forecast to make a big shift to the west while in the Gulf. It is now a Category 3, or major, storm, with winds of at least 111 mph (178 kmh).

Katrina is expected to reach Category 4 intensity before hitting land for a second time Monday, National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield said Friday evening. "I just don't see any reason why this will not become a very, very powerful hurricane before it's all over," Mayfield said at a news conference. ...

CNN: States of emergency

In anticipation of a possible landfall, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco declared states of emergency Friday.


My comment: While most people consider the threat to New Orleans, those in the know re the energy industry are worried about the preparations of oil platforms and plants, the evacuation of the workers offshore, and what might happen if this major storm hits the "wrong" place with respect to oil.

I saw a report just a few minutes ago on the evacuations of the oil rigs offshore that is happening right now, and if they're doing that already, it's getting near "crunch time" in the Gulf for the oil companies.

More information on the threat to oil rigs was presented on The Weather Channel, too, somewhat to my surprise.

This event could mean *significant* changes in gas prices -- and not for the better -- for all of us in this country.

~VV

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[OKNancy]

1. Hi Vicki in Tulsa

We need a link to the story. Thanks

OKNancy - DU mod
(also in Tulsa)

[vickitulsa]

17. OOPS! So sorry, thought I put the link in.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/27/tropical.weather/index.html

Actually I did put it in, then must have written over it, or sumthin'!

It's on the front page at CNN right now.

And HI Nancy! :) My first time to originate a LBN thread. I'll try to do better in the future! :blush:

~VV

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[tedzbear]

52. It is now a category 5!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is bad, very bad...

[AnnInLa]

2. My son, who works off-shore in the Gulf,

was brought in yesterday....they are battening down the hatches, so to speak. And, I am making plans to evacuate if the eye is expected to hit a little west of New Orleans. Damn, I hate hurricanes.

[bribri16]

3. God is really, really mad at the US. "Stay the curse!" n/t

[IADEMO2004]

4. Hurricanes hate us for our oil rigs

Say hi to Bartcop.

My family travels to Muskogee for the 4th July every year, tons of fun.

[vickitulsa]

18. Hey cool! My daughter was born in Muskogee.

Honor Heights Park there is fabulous ... the Azalea Festival and the lights they cover all the trees and shrubs with at Christmas -- just astounding, and drawing bigger crowds every year, from all over the country and even other countries, believe it or not.

And in the "believe it or not" category, Muskogee isn't as backward as a lot of other places I can think of! ;)

Their VA Medical Center is top notch, too.

I don't know Bartcop -- is he a Tulsan, or an Okie, too? Have seen his name here I think.

~VV

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[jus_the_facts]

5. NEW projected path.....

...takin' dead aim at south Louisiana...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/085817F120_

[AnnInLa]

7. thanks....damn

I live west of New Orleans, 12 miles north of Gulf waters. We are put into the awkward position of hoping it doesn't come straight for us, but knowing that it must hit somewhere and someone.

[jus_the_facts]

8. get the hell outta dodge....be safe and evacuate asap.....

...she's lookin' really nasty..don't take any chances...there are pretty good shelters up in northeast La. :hi:

[AnnInLa]

9. The problem is....

getting TO northeast LA....the interstates and other roads are usually clogged with bumper to bumper traffic. When those people from New Orleans start evacuating, it's just a big traffic jam. Oh well, we'll be OK. I think.

[jus_the_facts]

10. Well take extra care as those force winds are gonna be nasty....

...keep us posted too the developments as they happen. :scared:

[benito]

13. Ann

We're sticking around for this one. Even if it makes landfall to the east of us, we'll still feel this one I believe.

My company evacuates our guys as soon as a storm enters the gulf. I always get pictures from other companies the few days after a gulf storm. These huge platforms broken in half sometimes.

BE SAFE!

[vickitulsa]

25. You don't sound very sure that you'll be okay.

So I'm concerned about you, AnninLa. WILL you be able to keep us informed about what's happening? To you in particular, and in your region?

I sure would feel better if we could be getting updates on the situation from you, because you can tell us the "news on the ground" as it develops if you will still have access to a computer.

I'm mostly watching the Weather Channel now because the three so-called all news networks are broadcasting other weekend stuff with only occasional updates on Katrina's progress. But the Weather Channel does a lot of actual news stories, too -- not just offering up weather forecasts. The best report I've seen yet on what's happening now was on TWC and they showed file film footage of oil rigs that had been tilted to a 45-degree angle when hit by hurricanes or major tropical storms in the past.

I don't have stock in TWC, but they do provide the latest and best news you can get about the progress of a storm like this as it nears our shores, IMO.

And if you're out of pocket, AnninLa, during the worst of the storm and can't contact us, please let us know as soon as you can after it's over how you're doing, okay? Ditto for anyone else down there!

~VV

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[Lorien]

43. You could come south

to Central Florida. I have an extra room. Please; don't try to ride this out (see my earlier post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1731707&mesg_id=1731932).

[vickitulsa]

21. Yes, be safe, AnninLa!

It may get crazy down there if they decide to evacuate New Orleans ... folks there haven't had to deal with a hurricane in quite a while, I think. And didn't you all have a "near miss" last year when a lot of preparations were made but nothing happened? That always makes people a lot more reluctant to board up, pack up and leave the next time!

I sure know what you mean about wanting it to miss you but not wanting it to hit and harm anyone else. These things ... they just gotta go SOMEwhere... unfortunately.

I saw where it was projected to still be a Cat 1 hurricane on TUESDAY after it comes ashore! Now that's a major storm -- and likely to spin off tornadoes quite a few places and in my area, even. Good ole Tornado Alley. We don't need a boost from a hurricane to get plenty of twisters.

We must have had quite a storm last night. I slept right through it but when I was doing some repotting and repairs of my outdoors flowers just now, a neighbor came by and said she didn't see HOW I could have slept through it. I could tell just by how my yard looked that it had been quite stormy. Thank heaven I remembered to roll up my car windows last night!

I was so dead tired after a busy day, and in pain from having taken a fall in my yard, so I took a tiny bit more of my regular pain med at bedtime or I'm sure my DOGS would have woken me up when the wind and lightning came through.

I didn't plan to leave my computer this long after posting a new thread in LBN, but there were a lot of things to clean up outside and then I got distracted when I took the dogs down to the creek. It was flowing like crazy, and I noticed more chunks -- and bigger ones -- have been falling out of the I-244 overpass (six or eight lanes there) down into the creek bottom. LOTS of stuff had washed down my way from upstream, which always happens when there is a heavy rain and wind that blew stuff loose.

This creek is part of the Mingo Creek Flood Control Project, so I'm safe but it gets downright "interesting" here sometimes!

EVERYBODY who is in the path of this monster storm in the Gulf, PLEASE do take care and stay safe.

Right now I'm more concerned about the human lives to be affected wherever it comes ashore; but the problem of the hurricane's effect on American gasoline prices at the pump is a very real one and likely to be demanding our attention very soon after the storm passes through.

And THANKS to those who posted the link -- ya'll must think I'm a real dummy! :rofl: I should have caught that in the preview. Doh!

~VV

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[Delphinus]

6. Many thanks

for your insights, Vicki.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

11. How would you like to have to worry about this.... what to do with it

and where will it end up if hit directly.....

[KittyWampus]

37. is this what an oil platform looks like? how big are they ABOUT?

[HysteryDiagnosis]

44. This is one of your bigger ones... hence the name "Thunder Horse"

[alarimer]

12. Last year there were MORE hurricanes in the Gulf

And I don't recall it having much of an effect on oil Prices. Now I think they're using any excuse to raise those prices so fat cat oil companies can make a killing. Sounds like pure speculation to me.

[Horse with no Name]

14. They didn't hit the rigs

Take a look at their location



From this thread
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4471968

[alarimer]

22. Still pure speculation

If gas prices were to go up Monday, that is much too quick for there to have been an effect. Price gounging is what is going to happen; fucking oli companies will use ANY Excuse. I still say it's bullshit.

[vickitulsa]

29. I am not going to argue that the excuses used by the

industry are legitimate because I know better. It's a situation where they have lied so much that if a REAL reason happens, who could trust them to be honest with us about it?

BUT ... if after this hurricane passes through we see news film footage of a devastated region, with oil rigs washed away (and even the mammoth platforms are no match for a Cat 3 or stronger hurricane) or tilted on their sides, with coastal storage tanks for crude ripped off their foundations and black oil slicks spreading all over the beaches and into Gulf waters ... well, that sort of thing will be pretty convincing.

I sure as hell HOPE that it won't happen. I'm not predicting it because I'd LIKE to see such devastation, that's for damn sure. And I don't trust oil companies to be leveling with Americans for one solitary second. They never have and they never will. Those who have made their unimaginable wealth in that business play dirty and they play hardball. They have known for about five decades that they're in a business that, if the public ever knew the TRUTH, might well dwindle away to nothing as better forms of energy were developed and used to fuel the many demands for power in this country and around the world. From automobiles and airliners to the lights and power in many of our cities, from oceangoing vessels to the trucks and tanks of armies, we count on oil and its refined products to keep things running.

The Seven Sisters of Big Oil wanted it that way, planned it that way, and have lied through their teeth consistently ever since the 1920's in order to keep the people in the dark about what's REALLY possible and necessary to fuel our economies. I don't think they're gonna change their ways anytime soon.

So yes, those excuses are so often phony as hell, I support that position strongly. But how aware are most citizens that they've been buying into a lie for at least five decades?

Who is NOT forking over close to three dollars a gallon for gas at the pump these days? Who expects this situation to improve soon? Who knows what to do about the situation?

Surely we must not expect gas to drop below that mark -- three bucks a gallon -- again, once it reaches there ... not for very long, anyway, if it ever does. What I'm seeing has me thinking that's what the oil execs are shooting for, $3/gal at your local station, and more if they can get it, from now on. We've had our run with cheap gasoline in America, is what I think. And now that the oil companies have finally got us to ACCEPT much higher prices from now on for the fuel we put in our vehicles, they are surely going to do all they can to keep the price this high and push it as much higher as they can.

I've said ever since 1974 when I worked on the TAPS project in Alaska that there is no power on earth strong enough to defy Big Oil. I haven't seen anything to change my mind since then.

~VV

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[alarimer]

38. We should have started years ago

planning for this scenario (extremely high gas prices that is). It makes me sick to think about what will happen. My salary and most peoples' cannot cope with it. $3 a gallon will bankrupt me and I don;'t have a gas guzzler because that price will translate into higher prices for everything else. We are doomed- I actually think this may lead to a depression that will make the one in the 1930's look like boom times. But I am no economist; I just have to figure out how to economize for myself. Hopefully I won't lose my job because of it. We already are talking about 4-day work weeks at work (still 40 hours) to cut down on our driving. The bus system is horrible. It takes hours and hours to get anywhere. It is just faster to ride my bike.

[AndyTiedye]

46. Getting a Faster Bike

[vickitulsa]

48. Wow, that is totally amazing!

I'm an aging cyclist, and I like the new "reclining" bikes I've seen others riding on the bike trail in Tulsa. But this one with a FARING is a real hoot! :wow:

Reckon it could cut through hurricane-force winds??

~VV

_______________________________________

[AndyTiedye]

53. Bike Might Be the Fastest Way Out if You Can't Get on a Train

The freeways are jammed, just like everybody knew they would be.

How far can you ride on flat ground if you really fucking have to?
Pretty far, I think.

[Strelnikov_]

30. Oh Really?

Hurricane Season Puts Wind Up Oil Markets

http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2005/08/05/business/oil.php

Last year, Hurricane Ivan, one of the worst storms to hit the Gulf of Mexico in the past decade, destroyed seven platforms in shallow water and severely damaged 24 facilities and 102 underwater pipelines. It was the most costly storm ever to hit the offshore sector, causing an estimated $2.7 billion in damage, according to International Petroleum Finance, a specialist newsletter.

It took six months to repair damaged installations, fix severed pipelines and return oil and gas production back to prestorm levels.

In total, the storm cut 43.8 million barrels of oil, or 7 percent of the total, from the Gulf of Mexico's yearly output. It curbed gas production by 172 billion cubic feet, or 4.9 billion cubic meters - 4 percent of the total yearly output - and cost an estimated $3 billion in lost oil and gas revenue.

As the extent of the damage caused by Hurricane Ivan sank in, oil prices on commodity markets surged 19 percent over the next two weeks, pushing above $50 a barrel last October. Prices are now around $60 a barrel.

[alarimer]

39. Okay I missed that.

apparently.

[Horse with no Name]

15. Here is the link to the story

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/27/tropical.weather/index.html

[BiggJawn]

16. Too late!

Prices jumped 10 cents a gallon yesterday....

We're being ENRONNED. They either aren't working the refineries anywhere NEAR capacity, or they're sitting on the gas.

And always with the EXCUSES!
"Oh, the roughnecks on the platforms ran out of Astroglide and the weather's too rough to fly more out to them!"
"We didn't get a warm, positive response to our last ad campaign from the public"
"We found cockroaches at the refinery!"
"Our PR man's brain hurts"

[davsand]

19. The ONE excuse you won't hear?

BECAUSE WE CAN!!!!!!

Sadly, it is probably the only honest one in the whole mess.



Laura

[JustSayNO 2 Sheeples]

20. A Faux Pause

Oh come on, lets not buy into this. It's a hurricane. Hurricanes happen year after year after year and suddenly, it's a reason to boost oil prices? This is nothing more than the oil companies taking *'s lead in believing the American people are dumber than a rock and will fall for anything.

How long will this last? At the very most, it will be done in a few days. Our supplies cannot possibly be affected long term.

Think about this. As soon as the barrel price jumps are announced, the gas stations run out and start jumping prices. Assume that the already refined fuel sitting in the tanks of your local gas station took two months to get there. They paid, for instance, $55 a barrel for that oil. Yet, they want us to believe it is $68 a barrel fuel and henceforth, charge like it is.

I'm no expert on oil but I can tell you that you don't see other retailers pushing up prices of items already on the shelf based on what that same item MIGHT cost them in 2 weeks.

[vickitulsa]

23. What you say is true.

Unfortunately, as others have mentioned here, those at the top in Big Oil do NOT in fact believe Americans are smart enough to understand the complexities of the bizness, and will buy almost any excuse as legitimate when it comes to rising crude prices these days.

I recall when I was working on the construction of the TransAlaska Pipeline in 1974-75, there was so much hoopla over the way U.S. citizens wanted cheap gas but they didn't want oil companies drilling in pristine Alaska. There were bumper stickers on our yeller pickups that said, "LET THE BASTARDS FREEZE IN THE DARK!" Do you remember those?

And does anyone recall what it took to overcome the delay of SIX YEARS in the startup of that mammoth project which the environmentalists had successfully managed to achieve? It was the OPEC embargo of 1973. When lines at the pumps were very long and tempers were flaring (as tempers are doing even now in some places), when Joe Blow USA found that there was nothing his congresscritters or the prez or anyone else could do to get those in charge at the Big Oil giants OR the sheiks of Araby oil in the Middle East to "fix" the problem ... THAT's when it all got kinda crazy.

And the construction project that had been stopped in its tracks for six years and showed no signs of getting anywhere soon SUDDENLY was back on track with votes in Congress that had us building fly camps to build the pipeline camps for the thousands of workers that would be needed to drill, pump, and deliver via 56" pipeline that Alaskan crude to the port at Valdez. The Seven Sisters learned then how to get their way, and it's a lesson they haven't forgotten....

It's true that the lag time from when the stations paid for the gas in their storage tanks should be obvious, but it's just not to most people. We have grown accustomed just in the last few months to hearing that the price of crude on the market has jumped a few dollars per barrel and then seeing that gasoline prices at our local pumps rise within a day or two.

I worked for CEOs and CFOs and presidents and many VEEPs at companies like Bechtel and Amoco and Occidental, and also at the engineering companies that support them which are centered right here in Tulsa. I was an executive secretary and I took minutes at meetings (which were always altered to basically LIE to the public) between execs at the oil giants and oil ministers from Saudi and other nations that are sources for crude. I saw decisions made that were almost stunning in their blatant disregard for the welfare of the average U.S. citizen (or anyone else) who has to pay for gasoline and other fossil fuel products that are *necessities*.

There is no business on the planet, as far as I'm concerned, that plays as DIRTY and has so much power to do harm to all of us. I'm already worried about what my friends in the Northeastern U.S. who depend on fuel oil for heating in the winter are going to do in the next six months. Many folks I know live on fixed incomes and have been struggling in recent years to keep their homes warm enough to survive in them! What's gonna happen THIS winter? ... to them and so many others?

Nope, they're not rational, the excuses the oil companies use to rob us blind. But who can force businesses that powerful to change their ways? :shrug: I'm not even sure our Oil President and his Oil Administration people like Dick Cheney could do that....

~VV

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[donsu]

24. it's all those chemical plants I worry about

nt

[Junkdrawer]

26. Oil futures went down 1$ Friday before the forecast shift...

Imagine what will happen when the oil future markets open Sun/Mon...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4472002&mesg_id=4472002

[FlaGranny]

27. Oil? What we really need to worry about

is the City of New Orleans. A direct hit will be a disaster, probably like no other. I think I read that some of the city is 2 meters (abt 6 feet) BELOW sea level. New Orleans has been planning for decades for this. They've built a wall/dyke and huge pumping stations. I hope they work. New Orleans is the worst place for a hurricane to hit, let alone a category 4 (which is forecast) or a category 5 (not ruled out).

[HeeBGBz]

34. Traffic out of New Orleans is starting to clog up

They haven't even put out the evacuation orders yet. That may come in about 10 minutes or so. Theres a 12 o'clock meeting with the mayor and governor, etc.

I'm in Gulfport. Have no plans to evacuate at the present time. I am in a good spot with a sturdy home. Really have no place to go except the Biloxi VA and that bitch is sitting on the back bay. I'm away from the beach and the rivers.

[Strelnikov_]

28. Excellent Write Up On Our Precarious Energy Situation

regarding gulf oil facilities. Every storm, they reassure us how these facilities are designed for the ‘100 yr. event’. But as Ivan showed us, the ‘100 yr. event’ can take a lot of different forms (massive wave, sea floor velocities). We are dealing with extreme, infrequent events, and I do not think we really know the ‘return period’ for the gulf facilities resistance to hurricanes. My feeling is that it is actually much lower than the 1/100 chance any given year. Based on what I have seen the last few years, my guesstimate is more along the lines of a ’20 yr. event'. In other words, we have a 1/20 chance of losing 25% of domestic oil production, along with even more transshipment, any given year.

One other issue people don’t consider is that things have changed significantly in the gulf since ‘69 and Camille. There is a hell of a lot more ‘stuff’ out there, and it is now the last frontier for domestic oil production, along with a critical transshipment pint due to our increasing reliance on foreign oil.

Of course, there are some, even here, who still think it is all a pricing conspiracy. Those looking for conspiracy should examine those who have kept us hooked on oil, and not why the price the addicts have to pay suddenly shoots upward when a ‘panic’ (shortage) hits.


Damage to Thunder Horse Platform from Hurricane Dennis

http://www.klfy.com/Global/story.asp?S=3581363

The platform is a deepwater rig that was about to go online producing 250k bbl/dy plus a whole lot of methane.

Hurricane Season Puts Wind Up Oil Markets

http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2005/08/05/business/oil.php

Last year, Hurricane Ivan, one of the worst storms to hit the Gulf of Mexico in the past decade, destroyed seven platforms in shallow water and severely damaged 24 facilities and 102 underwater pipelines. It was the most costly storm ever to hit the offshore sector, causing an estimated $2.7 billion in damage, according to International Petroleum Finance, a specialist newsletter.

It took six months to repair damaged installations, fix severed pipelines and return oil and gas production back to prestorm levels.

In total, the storm cut 43.8 million barrels of oil, or 7 percent of the total, from the Gulf of Mexico's yearly output. It curbed gas production by 172 billion cubic feet, or 4.9 billion cubic meters - 4 percent of the total yearly output - and cost an estimated $3 billion in lost oil and gas revenue.

As the extent of the damage caused by Hurricane Ivan sank in, oil prices on commodity markets surged 19 percent over the next two weeks, pushing above $50 a barrel last October. Prices are now around $60 a barrel.

"The world has changed," said Frank Glaviano, vice president for production for North and South America at Royal Dutch Shell, the biggest oil producer in the Gulf of Mexico. “Given the supply and demand situation around the world, it's true that any disruption in supplies is more important to markets than it was in previous years."

[vickitulsa]

32. Thanks so much for your additional info and the link to the

story and photo of Thunder Horse, loindelrio!

Man, one look at the mighty Thunder Horse after Dennis, and just to imagine what dozens of rigs and facilities throughout the Gulf could look like after Katrina... yikes! Gives me the shivers.

Someone also mentioned the chemical plants in this thread. In the program Oil Storm that I referenced, one of several events happening in sequence that caused prices of gas in the U.S. to skyrocket to over eight dollars per gallon (yep, and it could happen folks) was the collision of a supertanker full of Saudi oil and one loaded with chemicals in the narrow and crooked confines of the river channel around Texas City, I think it was. Or Morgan City? One of those coastal petroleum/chemical plant areas.

You are so right, lo, about the difference in what exists in that region from 1969 to now. Anyone who lives in the area knows what sort of buildup has occurred over the last couple of decades and probably knows how dangerous are the products stored, refined, and handled there. I think of it as "Toxic City," the whole area!

The horrific explosions of the Texas City plant happened so long ago that most people have forgotten, but that was a good example of the sort of devastation that can occur when the situation at these sorts of facilities gets thrown into catastrophic disarray. Nature could do terrible damage and cause major loss of life and injuries to many, but so could human shortcomings. I hate to even THINK about what a savvy terrorist could do in such places....

What I wish is that Americans understood a lot better not only the oil markets and the unimaginable influence and outright power of the oil companies but the very real physical dangers represented by their facilities. The pipeline in Alaska was nothing short of astounding, and at the time was the largest private construction project ever, costing around $10 billion. If folks could see how BIG Alaska is, what sort of engineering feats had to be accomplished to bring in that crude and deliver it to port at Valdez for trans-shipment via supertanker to points south and elsewhere.... I mean, ya have to acknowledge the ingenuity and the sheer massing of construction power the oil companies had merely to build that pipeline, and all the pumping stations and other facilities that go with it.

If so much power and resources could be mustered to accomplish such construction, it would be nice to think companies like that would use their experience and their influence to benefit society and improve conditions for millions of human beings around the world. Such an outlook is NOT, however, one we can expect. They're in it for another purpose altogether.

That last paragraph in your post is sooo important for people to understand, loindelrio! I know the oil companies lie and cheat and rip us off every chance they get. But when major damage to major systems THEY depend on affect the delivery of fossil fuel products that WE depend on, ya do indeed get a "perfect storm" of a very high order.

~VV

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[Strelnikov_]

33. My Complaint With 'Oil Storm' Was How It Did A Soft Sell On The Impact

of losing 15% of our oil supply overnight.

We would be rationing, and gas would be $10+/gal. The '73 oil shock was a 10% shortfall that resulted in a quadrupling of prices.

And there is no way jawboning Putin out of some oil would relieve the situation. The entire system worldwide is now at capacity, and we are running a $600 B trade deficit.

I just hope everyone enjoyed the 'last good summer'.

[vickitulsa]

35. Oh man, you had the same gripe my brother did

about "Supervolcano." ;)

Yes, they didn't show just how bad it might get, WOULD get, if that much interruption to the crude oil and/or gasoline supply happened. I figure that when cable networks decide to do one of these "possible mega-disaster" scenarios from whatever cause, they like to stay away from the absolute worst eventualities and still give the audience a good idea of just how massive the impact might be.

In Supervolcano, having half-a-million deaths in the Western U.S. as a result of Yellowstone blowing a good portion of its magma in multiple eruptions was fairly severe, if you ask me. But my brother said they didn't take it far enough!

Same with Oil Storm. Yep, gas at the pump prices of $10/gal certainly are possible and would be likely with as many problems in the crude supply system as that show portrayed. And for sure I would expect to see rationing sooner rather than later, if only because the government would want to be sure IT has enough to suit its hunger (they'd say its "needs"). After all, what would we DO if we couldn't fuel the tanks and troop transports and Humvees in Iraq??

But I thought the producers did present a fairly good picture of the sorts of things that could happen given a few unfortunate incidents that interrupt crude influx. One event, one disaster, yeah, maybe we could absorb it with just a bit of a rise in already rising gas prices. But string two or three incidents together that all impair the flow of oil, and..... well, it's easy to see how that could work.

The way I look at it, ya have to take it one step further when a program like that is aired. See what they're trying to POINT to without actually saying it. If the movie/documentary program they presented told the *whole* truth, the government would probably shut the network down for "treason"! Or for creating a panic. Or sumthin'.

Disgusting, ain't it?

~VV

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[Oreegone]

31. I'm afraid this one will be devastating

There are no land masses or weather fronts to slow it down. Wherever it hits there could be up to 30 ft. storm surges. I was just watching a lady who lives right on the beach saying we put things in the storage shed and packed up the house and we will hope for the best. Even when people have seen what this kind of hurricane can do they just can not accept it. I guess if you are going to live right next to the water in this region you really can't accept it or you might consider living a little further inland. But, that said I feel a great deal of forboding regarding this storm. I think it is going to be very ugly. This is an area where many thousands of people live below sea level. I wish you all well and my suggestion, get out of Dodge before the panicked masses start fleeing.
Thinking good thoughts but fearing the worst. I was through there after Eloise went through and it was not pretty.
Here is an interesting history of hurricanes for that region.
http://www.eglin.af.mil/weather/hurricanes/history.html
O8)

[Boomer]

45. Humans have short attention spans

If something hasn't happened in 30 years, then it's ancient history and nobody thinks about it any more. That was THEN, this is NOW, so stop worrying yada yada.

Unfortunately, we're now entering a period of increased hurricane activity which has not been experienced by most of the people now living in low-lying coastal areas. And we've overdeveloped those areas, destroying the buffering effect of wetlands.

So we're setting ourselves up for disaster along the order of the Galveston hurricane. And I suppose it will take a disaster of that magnitude to "remind" people that nature's raw power is still damned impressive.

[Massachusetts]

54. "I'm afraid this one will be devastating"

Hang on to your wallets, this ride could get bumpy, with Fall and Winter just around the corner.

[Lori Price CLG]

36. 'Oil rigs in path' -corpora-terrorists ExxonMobil couldn't be happier! n/t

[Roland99]

40. Just got an email from a buddy on the North Shore of the lake -boarding up

[Eloriel]

41. NOMINATED -- Very important information

Thanks, and welcome to DU!! Glad to have you here. Have you weighed in on the subject of Peak Oil? If not, please do (and PM me with a link to any of those discussions).

[vickitulsa]

50. No Eloriel, I don't know anything about a discussion of Peak Oil.

But I'll see if I can find it on DU and read it. If you have the link for that thread handy, it would help me to find it, I'm sure!

This thread may fall off the page since it only got 4 votes, but I'm sure we'll be talking about this a LOT in the near future!

Thanks for your encouragement ... I'm still pretty timid about voicing my opinions here. It may not seem like it, but it takes me awhile to screw up the courage to initiate a thread, particularly. :blush:

~VV

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[Delphinus]

51. Vicki,

under the forums there is one dedicated to peak oil.

I think this will take you there:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=266

[vickitulsa]

55. Okay, found it. Thanks so much!

This looks like a forum where I should be hanging out! I just read the intro and the titles of threads ... looks like some very good discussions of the issue of oil and fossil fuels as a resource.

Appreciate the tip! :thumbsup:

~VV

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[VADem11]

42. Did you all see Oil Storm?

It was on FX a couple of weeks ago. The scenario was that a major hurricane hit Louisiana and sent oil soaring. Scary to see it in real life.

[Corgigal]

47. I was just trying to find in on bit torrent

I can't find a link. IF an DU'er knows where to find it I would appreciate it. Let me know.

[vickitulsa]

49. Here is a link to the FX page for Oil Storm

I'm sorry I thought it was USA Network, but it was FX.

http://www.fxnetworks.com/shows/originals/oilstorm/main.html

You can see still photos from the movie here, and read a synopsis, and a lot of other stuff. I tried checking the schedule, both there and at the Yahoo TV Listings site, but it's not showing again in the next 14 days according to Yahoo, and no info yet from FX. I will try to contact them and find out if Oil Storm will be re-airing.

Although I suspect that if Katrina lays waste to the LA coastal region a la Camille, we won't be seeing that particular movie again anytime soon!

~VV

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