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Bluebear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 02:58 PM
Original message
NEW ORLEANS: Hurricane watch issued as evacuation begins.
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 03:01 PM by Bluebear
As evacuations - mandatory and voluntary - began in parts of the greater New Orleans area Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch from Morgan City to the Pearl River, including metro New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

Across the area, residents were holding their breath under the cloud of an ominous projection that shows the path of Hurricane Katrina crossing directly over the metro area. Katrina is currently a major Category 3 hurricane, and is expected to continue strengthening, perhaps even reaching Category 5 before landfall.

"This is not a test," New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said at a midday news conference. Later in the afternoon, he called for voluntary evacuation, and said the Superdome could be pressed into use as a shelter of last resort for people who do not have cars.

Louisiana and Mississippi were making all lanes northbound on Interstates 55 and 59 beginning Saturday afternoon for evacuees.
Plaqumines Parish President Benny Rousselle has issued a Phase I mandatory evacuation for all of Plaquemines Parish....

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said he probably would call an evacuation Saturday afternoon or Sunday morning. He said he was telling residents to "get their supplies, get their medications in order, clean up storm drains and get ready. Because it looks as if we're going to get hit.

http://www.nola.com/newslogs/weather/


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Sabriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 02:59 PM
Response to Original message
1. Maybe they'll call up the National Guard.
Oh, yeah, they're occupied elsewhere....
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BayouBengal07 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. Wouldn't be the first time
As a kid I remember seeing humvees driving around my neighborhood during hurricanes. Looks like we could get them this time too.
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Carni Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #1
12. Someone interviewed on MSNBC just said they are all in Iraq
I am not sure who they were interviewing--some government official there I believe, a woman. She stated that the guard will not be there because they are in Iraq (Unless I misunderstood her)
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truthisfreedom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #12
21. this will be a remarkable disaster for the administration if indeed the
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 03:39 PM by truthisfreedom
troops are not available because of bushco's illegal war and there's a great need for them in New Orleans. imagine the outcry.

i hope the best for NO!
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RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:37 PM
Response to Reply #21
32. Imagining...
Nope. Nothing.
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Horse with no Name Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 02:59 PM
Response to Original message
2. I've always heard that if a major storm hits NO
the city would be gone. Is this hyperbole or is it the truth?
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Old Vet Donating Member (618 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:03 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. If it hits NO just right, Gonna be ugly.............
They are way below sea level, And cant evacuate, To many people!
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gasperc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 06:10 AM
Response to Reply #3
131. I think they'll evacuate but the property damage will be imense
we may even end up with another gas price shock, hopefully loss of life will be avoided. This could be the epic hurricane we've avoided for decades
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Bluebear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:03 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. It would certainly be a major catastrophe
'New Orleans is built on a basin that is nine feet below sea level. Its only protection from being submerged is a sea wall and a system of pumps.'
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schultzee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #5
63. I am just accross the Ponchatrain from New Orleans and we
are planning to stay home thus far. Concerned about the trees all around our house.
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Stuckinthebush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 09:01 PM
Response to Reply #63
82. Really?
A cat 5 is coming your way and you aren't leaving?

You have some intestinal fortitude, Schultzee!
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Media_Lies_Daily Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 10:46 PM
Response to Reply #63
96. You might want to reconsider your "last stand" philosophy....
...unless you want to become a statistic.
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modrepub Donating Member (484 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 08:34 AM
Response to Reply #63
156. Reconsider
With max sustained @ 140 mph you can expect gusts in excess of 170 mph. My father was on Guam for a super Typhoon, a storm similar in strength in the Pacific. He did not enjoy it and he was in a cement house. Make plans for staying somewhere else because most of the infrastructure will be destroyed with winds this strong.
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 08:28 AM
Response to Reply #5
155. New Orleans: A profile


:scared:
rocknation
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likesmountains 52 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. Bill Moyers did a show on it a few years ago...see link
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hack89 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. The Red Cross considers NO its number one worst potential disaster
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 03:09 PM by hack89
a combination of:

1. a city below sea level

2. very few escape routes

3. a lot of poor people with no cars.

The worst case scenario is that the city floods, putting it under 20 feet of water. Tens if not hundreds of thousands of people could drown depending how effective evacuation plans are. Then after the storm, it could take up to six months to get all the water out as it has to be pumped out (remember it is below sea level so gravity is no help). The city would therefore soak in a toxic brew of sewage and chemicals until pumped out.
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schultzee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:32 PM
Response to Reply #8
66. Alot of people died in the one in the 60's when they broke the
levee intentionally to save the business section and uptown from flooding. They found people in their homes with the home full of water, but they saved the expensive and rich parts of town.
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Carni Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:17 PM
Response to Reply #2
13. I just heard it would take something like 60 days
To pump the water out of the city. It was on CNN per the Mayor of the city. That Mayor predicted that 44,000 people could be killed if they take a direct hit and people can't, or won't evacuate. I believe this was from an old interview about hurricane Jorge.
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Rockholm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:42 PM
Response to Reply #13
23. Six months.
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Carni Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:33 PM
Response to Reply #23
42. Now that you say that I think they did say 6 months
I guess it sounded so horrible that my mind edited it to two!
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Rockholm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:36 PM
Response to Reply #42
53. I was dumbfounded when I heard that.
There was some discussion regarding water and sewer too. Something like a year for them to be back on line. This really could be the mother of all storms! Bush better hope that there is utter devastation so he can milk the media. Oh, wait, New Orleans is heavily Democratic. Never mind. Maybe the storm could just go to Pensacola instead.
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bigluckyfeet Donating Member (559 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:15 PM
Response to Reply #53
61. I Love New Orleans
and I have a lot of relatives there.In the last hurricane my cousin moved all they funiture on the second floor,then the hurricane did not hit them.The people are in my prayers.Tonight the freeways heading west to Texas will be packed.All the local hotels here will be booked.
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kestrel91316 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:57 PM
Response to Reply #42
59. After 6 months submersion, there wouldn't be enough left of
the city of NO's infrastructure to bother pumping out the water. The buildings would all ROT. I predict 100% loss if this happens.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 10:25 PM
Response to Reply #13
92. Those pumps are ancient too. What if THEY are damaged in the storm?
:scared:
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Media_Lies_Daily Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 10:36 PM
Response to Reply #92
94. They'll be under water for sure....I don't know if they'll be damaged....
...but they won't be usable until they resurface.
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #2
14. hyperbole
yes, there would be much loss of life but the city would not be "gone"

even nagasaki is still there, think abt it

you can't kill a city that easy

it would be a mess tho

potential for great loss of life

just hoping for the best as i cannot leave
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SpiralHawk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:44 PM
Response to Reply #14
33. The former citizens of Pompei beg to differ
But then again, all that falls shall rise again.
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Media_Lies_Daily Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 10:43 PM
Response to Reply #14
95. Six months under water and another six months to a year to rebuild....
...no problem.

No worry, be happy.
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kestrel91316 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 11:19 PM
Response to Reply #95
100. Rebuild NO in 6-12 months?? Boy, I sure want some of what
you've been smoking.
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reprobate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 10:27 PM
Response to Reply #2
93. The biggest danger for NO lies in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane.


That's the point of greatest storm surge, which is what kills most people in hurricanes. I don't remember how high the levies on the river are, but a good sized storm surge would push enough water up the river to flood the downtown over the levies.

Pray that the 'cane hits east of the city so the storm surge doesn't effect NO.
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Endangered Specie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #2
101. It wouldnt be pretty...
NO is basically a bowl...

Levees keep the Missisippi and Lake P from spilling over and considering their current heights they MIGHT be able to hold a cat 4 but not a cat 5, and it also depends on hi/lo tide.

Another thing to consider is the pump system. As it is the system (a drain if you will) can remove 1 inch of rain per hour, go over that and you get flooding, so major floods can happen without the river/lake waters towering over the levees.

Also, this situation will only get worse, because of the levees, the bowl is sinking (getting deeper). These levees keep the Miss from flooding, which would provide sediments, but is not.
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MaineDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:03 PM
Response to Original message
4. Good luck to you all in that area
Batten down the hatches and be safe.
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Carni Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:12 PM
Response to Original message
9. OK so I am going to make an ass of myself
Please if anyone lives there just get your stuff and go--
I am seriously getting bad vibes about this.

Now go ahead and make fun of my half assed psychic prediction but I had to say it! :(
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Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #9
18. Apparently you're not alone -- within this very hour, they're closing
all lanes INTO the city, so there's more room for people to evacuate. They ARE evacuating the city and low-lying areas.
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:29 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. yes contraflow has begun, if i understand nagin correctly
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 03:29 PM by pitohui
good luck, all, whether you leave or stay

i think the ppl who move eastward may end up evacuating directly into the path of the storm

as my shelter is to the east, inland mississippi, which will almost certainly be hit, i can't go

a lot of uncertainties in these models this time

just hope it works out for the best

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peacebuzzard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:32 PM
Response to Reply #19
30. How many famly members and animals do you have?
Pitohui? And where are you in the N.O. area?

I am worried about you.
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Carni Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:37 PM
Response to Reply #19
44. But damn at least if you go to Mississippi you wouldn't be under water
If you end up in it's path there, would you?

I am not trying to be a pain in the ass just concerned about the situation.

Hopefully it will make a turn and spare your city.
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Carni Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:23 PM
Response to Reply #18
40. I watched something that stated if 70% evacuate but they take a hit
That like 44,000 people could die--that's nothing to screw around with IMO
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niallmac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:37 PM
Response to Reply #9
43. not as bad as saying "you know, I had a feeling that would happen."
I certainly don't know everything about how intuition, and all that weird stuff that animals can sense works. Looking at the sat photo gives me a bad feeling too.
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mom cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #9
51. Please everyone..just get out. This one looks bad.
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Stuckinthebush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 09:04 PM
Response to Reply #9
84. Carni...I'm not psychic and think it is all bunk anyway...
but...I agree with you. Bad vibes indeed!

Get out of NO!

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Stuckinthebush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 09:06 PM
Response to Reply #9
86. If any NO Duers need a place to stay
Come on up to Bham. It's a five hour drive without evacuation, but if you need it, I'm here.

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maddezmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:12 PM
Response to Original message
10. thinking of you all
have inlaws in the area of Harvey...my sister in-law just had her o3rd baby a few weeks ago. praying fer you all.
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hippiechick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:13 PM
Response to Original message
11. Really stupid question, but where is Crawford on this map ?
Just curious ...
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:22 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. i cannot evac to crawford w. my entire family & animals
not everyone can put every responsibility aside to protest

believe me i'd rather be there than here

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hippiechick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #16
20. That was NOT my point ...
... my point was, is it possibly in the path of the hurricane?

Sheesh :eyes:
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tanyev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:39 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. Crawford is in Central Texas.
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 03:46 PM by tanyev
Very close to Waco, which is almost half-way point on I35 between Austin and Dallas. (A little further north than the dot in my avatar.) Occasionally if a hurricane really hits the Texas coast they will see rain that far inland, but usually not.
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:00 PM
Response to Reply #22
27. yeah the question just seemed so sarcastic to me
sorry if i misunderstood but nerves a bit touchy right abt now

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Carni Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #27
48. You know I'll bet if you posted in the lounge or GD re: high ground
There's a DUer inland (or somewhere out of the path) that would help you out! Just a suggestion!
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:31 PM
Response to Reply #27
65. Pitohui, can you at least get hold of a boat?
Like a rowboat? What about life vests? Bottled water?
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mom cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:37 PM
Response to Reply #22
54. I remember when Carla came to Texas and went far enough inland
to give an area just east of Austin some hurricane force winds...She was a big one. Katrina is going to hit too far east to be any problem to Texas...But damn..New Oreleans..a direct hit there would dwarf any other natural disaster this country has ever known. Please get out now and take everyone that you can!
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mom cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:31 PM
Response to Reply #20
52. Way out of the way.....damned near 600 miles. Crawford won't even
get a sprinkle from this one.
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shirlden Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:21 PM
Response to Original message
15. Flooding is the problem
Not wind. Just talked to my brother a few minutes ago. He lives in an area called the Bywater, a couple of short miles downriver from the Quarter and he is two blocks from the Mississippi.
He isn't worried yet, but is getting ready to go, although he says he would probably be safe in his attic. He has lived there 28 years and knows what to expect. Wind will not take his creole cottage down, but the "worst case " scenerio for Nola is 20 feet of water. I lived in Nola for 10 years and joined in many a "hurricane party". There is no way to evacuate everyone, so might as well Par-teeee.



:toast: Here's to my favorite city. May you all be safe.
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. oh wind can take down yr house all right
if the wind puts an oak tree on yr house, you have issues, i guarantee

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OKNancy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #17
25. So, if you decide not to leave
will you please update us on how you are doing. I'm am really worried for your safety. So, as soon as you have power please post something!
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:02 PM
Response to Reply #25
28. will do
when my poor house was smashed i was actually able to get online at the public library

this time IF it hits, i would expect more widespread & long-lasting outages, but i won't just disappear & leave ya'll wondering
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frustrated_lefty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #25
41. Consider me stupid in New Orleans......
There's nothing happening here at the moment. Not a drop from the sky.

For those of you who live in different parts of the country, I know New Orleanians seem very stupid for not evacuating. Please consider there are very few evacuation routes, the ones which exist tend to get jammed, and the routes which do exist are potential nightmares in the midst of a hurricane. Trying to cross Lake Ponchatrain in the middle of a hurricane....it would not work.
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mom cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:51 PM
Response to Reply #41
58. Please get out if you can... I would rather you feel silly than sorry!
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schultzee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:36 PM
Response to Reply #41
67. I am accross Ponchatrain in Covington and staying also. Wind
and flying trees will be our problem here. My hubby refuses to leave, so I am here too.
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ok_cpu Donating Member (826 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:03 PM
Response to Reply #41
72. I visited NO for 1st time this summer
And could not believe the Ponchartrain Causeway or whatever it's called was one of the evacuation routes.

Couldn't imagine crossing that in any kind of storm.
:scared:
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Endangered Specie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #72
103. Thats pretty much whats its called IIRC...
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Boomer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #15
79. Lack of experience is a bigger problem
>> He isn't worried yet, but is getting ready to go, although he says he would probably be safe in his attic. He has lived there 28 years and knows what to expect. <<

I'm sorry, but 28 years is NOT enough experience on which to base a decision for evacuation. The last 30 years have been a period of LOW activity for hurricanes, but we are now entering a cyclical period of high activity, possibily intensified by warmer ocean waters due to claimte change conditions.

Too few people alive today have experienced the conditions that we will be facing over the next two decades. There is no comparison with past events, and unfortunately all too many people like your brother don't realize that natural cycles are much longer than their lifespans.

Like the intensifying drought in the northwest, the coastal areas are going to experience "once in a lifetime" weather events. Unfortunately not everyone will survive them as well.


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SaveAmerica Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 07:02 AM
Response to Reply #79
134. Yyou also have the Hurricane in Pensacola last
year, many long time residents lived on the beach of Pensacola and said they'd ridden out so many storms in the past, what was one more? When it was over and they miraculously survived they swore they would never take a hurricane lightly again, it had been worse than any one they'd been through before.
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:46 PM
Response to Original message
24. Here's the Latest Forecast Storm Track, This could be "the one" N.O.
This does not look good for New Orleans. Here a link to a very good, and very accurate website for Tropical Storms and Hurricanes:

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/>
After clicking on this link, click the Gulf of Mexico on the little map. Then you can click on lots of things, including the projected and current "wind field."



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TahitiNut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:08 PM
Response to Reply #24
29. The "nightmare scenario" is if the eye goes slightly west of N.O.
If the storm tracks slightly to the west of N.O. then the flooding would be the worst. If the storm is also Cat 4+, then it's the "nightmare scenario" for New Orleans.
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Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #29
39. It also could damage or destroy over a dozen oil platforms
The main cluster of them is just to the west of the current track the eye is predicted to take. By "just", I mean less than 50 miles.

So "slightly to the west" is the nightmare scenario in more ways than one.

--p!
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:30 PM
Response to Reply #29
64. Here's the "wind field" forecast for 45 hours from now.
This could be very bad. Anyone within the yellow needs to get out now. The Red zone is the area of the highest winds and the most damage.



Note: This map updates it's self, so the storm will be past N.O. in this picture in a few hours.
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bigluckyfeet Donating Member (559 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 09:38 PM
Response to Reply #29
90. Here Are 2 Good Hurricane Weather Sites
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DLnyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 04:04 AM
Response to Reply #24
107. Another good source:
I've been following this storm quite closely. It has been somewhat erratic, but has clearly become a very serious storm with a real possibility of becoming a monster. The NOAA site at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
has timely and detailed info which is probably as accurate as possible and also is quite clear about the uncertainties in forecasts.
also good is:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Orleans&state=LA&site=LIX
I'm no expert, but my impression is that if Katrina becomes a Cat 5 before hitting land it will be ugly beyond what any still living people remember.
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DLnyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 04:14 AM
Response to Reply #107
108. Cat 4 now, expected to strengthen
From Public Advisory
#21
at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA
IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE HURRICANE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 08:24 AM
Response to Reply #108
151. Welcome to DU, DLnyc!
:hi:
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OKNancy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 03:58 PM
Response to Original message
26. NOLA - local TV broadcast
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Bluebear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #26
36. Nancy, that is highly interesting!
Thank you for the link.
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peacebuzzard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:33 PM
Response to Original message
31. Where is the SwampRat?
He skimmed by last season. Is SwampRat still in N.O.????
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Bluebear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #31
37. yeah he is.....
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:43 PM
Response to Reply #37
68. FUCK
I wish he would evacuate. This IS NOT a storm that ANYONE should try to "ride out"!
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Sgent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 04:52 PM
Response to Original message
34. I'm glad my brother, his girlfriend, and the grandparents
were coming to visit me this weekend (brother's HS reunion). Just booked 4 more rooms for the rest of the family -- who are on their way.

NOLA, LA, and MS have implemented evacuation procedures -- 55 and 59 are now single direction roads with all 4 lanes heading north.

If you get the "nightmare scenerio" its even worse than people realize. The flood control plan calls for blowing up the levy's -- there is dynamite planted all along the levy's. This will allow the water to drain, but will leave significant parts of the city under some amount of standing water. Parts of NOLA, and Metarie are as much as 20ft below sea level.
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aint_no_life_nowhere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:06 PM
Response to Original message
35. What is this going to do to the price of gasoline?
There are about 16 major oil refineries located in Louisiana, with additional ones next door in Mississippi. Also, the oil platforms in the Gulf area producing crude oil could be at risk. I wonder whether this storm is going to have an impact on the price of gas?
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Bluebear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:08 PM
Response to Reply #35
38. Major impact.
They have already evacuated like 40 oil platforms in the gulf.
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AspenRose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:40 PM
Response to Original message
45. Swamp Rat and Funkybutt
Y'all stay safe now, y'hear....:grouphug: :grouphug:
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #45
69. Maddy McCall too
I think she's right outside of NO.
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VADem11 Donating Member (783 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:40 PM
Response to Original message
46. Category 5?
This will get very ugly if it happens. I've heard that any major hurricane could bascially destroy New Orleans. Good luck to all DUers in the path of the hurricane.
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 05:42 PM
Response to Original message
47. If you are in the hurricane's path PLEASE EVACUATE!!!
My neighborhood was hit by Charley last year. By the time it reached us (80 miles from where it made landfall) winds were 95-113 MPH. The people only a few miles away from me had 85 MPH winds and almost no damage. 10 MPH makes a HUGE difference!

Here is what 95 MPH sustained winds did to my neighborhood:









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gulfcoastliberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:17 PM
Response to Original message
49. If the NE Quadrent hits NO, bye-bye Big Easy
It's not the current generations fault, but what folly to build a city below sea level that requires pumps running 24/7 to keep the streets dry. I'm sure the fundies are orgasmic that such a sinful place may get wiped out. But then again, they could get the western side of the
storm, which would spare them - but subject the Mississippi Gulf Coast to another Camille-like event. My sick grandmother lives 1 block away from the beach - she and my mom have gone to Hattiesburg to ride it out there. I am sick of this - 3 hurricane disasters in less than 11 months.
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ellie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:22 PM
Response to Original message
50. For the love of Pete!
Look at that thing! Please be safe there and leave if you can. I will be praying for all of you in Katrina's path.
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hnsez Donating Member (430 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:41 PM
Response to Original message
55. Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

The maximum winds may fall below 115 mph while Katrina undergoes this eyewall replacement cycle, as the inner eyewall collapses and a new outer eyewall forms. This would make Katrina a strong Category 2 storm, and indeed the maximum winds seen so far by the Hurricane Hunters were only 87 knots (100 mph) at 10,000 feet. This is a temporary affliction, since Katrina is in nearly ideal conditions for strengthening, and is expected to reach Category 4 status by Sunday. The convection and outflow are starting to look better on the north side of the hurricane, and Katrina should have a more symmetrical shape typical of Category 4 hurricanes by Sunday...
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hnsez Donating Member (430 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:43 PM
Response to Reply #55
56. Steve Gregory's WunderBlog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

AUG 27 - 6:10PM UPDATE

Latest satellite and RECON data suggests Katrina may have begun to intensify rapidly.

The forecast track continues to show the New Orleans to Mobile area is at greatest risk, and there is significant chance of landfall as a CAT 4 or CAT 5 hurricane.

A complete update will be issued at 7:45PM CDT

Steve
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thinkingwoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 06:49 PM
Response to Original message
57. my thoughts and prayers
are with everyone in the path of this storm.

Please, everyone affected, heed evacuation orders. Get out now. Go anywhere that is above sea level.

Good luck.
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:12 PM
Response to Original message
60. A REMINDER TO ALL PET OWNERS:
I work for a pet rescue group in Central Florida. Last year, we were hit by three hurricanes, which was a real learning experience. Most (human) shelters do not accept pets, so many pet owners simply left their animals at home. When the storms blew out windows or when trees knocked out walls, the pets ran and often never returned. Animal shelters were inundated with found dogs and cats. IF THE ANIMALS WERE NOT MICROCHIPPED OR WEARING IDENTIFICATION, THEY WERE DESTROYED WITHIN ONE HOUR OF THEIR ARRIVAL AT THE SHELTER. The shelters had simply run out of room, and that was their policy.

Please, please put a collar on your pets with ID NOW-even if you are evacuating with them.

Also, La Quinta Inns and many Motel 6s accept pets.
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HeeBGBz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:45 PM
Response to Reply #60
70. I work at a kennel and we were swamped with calls today
Full up by 10 am. I have to go in to feed in the morning then the boss is on his own through the storm and after. We'll have to block runs and feed them half rations, I think. Once that's done, then I hunker down and hope for the best.
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peacebuzzard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:05 PM
Response to Reply #70
73. HeeBG and ALL PET OWNERS looking for a safe place.
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 08:09 PM by peacebuzzard
Stay safe. If you know of any pet owners trying to flee somewhere w/ their pets....My house is open to pet guardians and pets.....P.M. me I am in Tennessee. Head to Knoxville.
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HeeBGBz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:11 PM
Response to Reply #73
74. You rock, Peacebuzzard
You made it back from Anchorage ok???
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peacebuzzard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:17 PM
Response to Reply #74
76. Yes.
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 08:19 PM by peacebuzzard
Many days ago. Back from NYC two days ago to Tennessee.

I am here now and watching this storm unfold w/ horror. If you know of anyone who needs refuge for themselves and their pets, let me know. Stay safe.
Tell them to head to Knoxville and to p.m. me.
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HeeBGBz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #76
78. Will do.
I will have to go in to work tomorrow and help get the animals ready for the storm. Then I will go back home and wait for the inevitable.
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peacebuzzard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:47 PM
Response to Reply #78
81. The angel for the animals.
Pat them for me. Wish I could take them all.
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 09:12 PM
Response to Reply #76
87. Thank you, Peacebuzzard!
I certainly hope that someone will take you up on your offer rather than "ride out" this horrific storm!

I have one room open in my small home here in Orlando as well. It can fit 1-2 people, plus a couple of pets. PM me if you want to head South.
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peacebuzzard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 09:48 PM
Response to Reply #87
91. You are welcome. I can hold many pets....
just so long as the caretakers are here, too. Room for everyone.

It looks like a bad storm. Let us pray it decreases in intensity.
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shrike Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:21 PM
Response to Original message
62. One of my very favorite cities
Although Sydney, Australia, certainly rocks, too.

Seriously, you all stay safe down there.
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HeeBGBz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 07:48 PM
Response to Original message
71. Evacuation seems to be going well
At least for those with the ability to leave town. The contra-flow highway thing is working pretty smoothly from what they are showing on tv.

Here in coastal Mississippi, no evacuation orders yet. Just voluntary suggestions to leave.
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frustrated_lefty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
75. I'm neither SwampRat, nor Funkybutt.
It's not plausible for me to leave New Orleans at the moment, though. I'll keep you guys posted on the status of things here as long as the power remains on.

FL
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peacebuzzard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:27 PM
Original message
Hey frustrated....
Stay safe, my friend. Hope to hear from you as well. Hunker down or get the hell out either way, let us know.
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peacebuzzard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:27 PM
Response to Reply #75
77. dupe
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 08:28 PM by peacebuzzard
..
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HeeBGBz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:39 PM
Response to Reply #75
80. Me too, F-lefty from 60 miles east
Will be posting til I lose power.

I'm sure it will take my mind off of what's happening outside.

Be safe as possible.
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hnsez Donating Member (430 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 09:01 PM
Response to Original message
83. Posted By: SteveGregory at AUGUST 27 - 7:35PM CDT
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

SPECIAL NOTE: Hurricane Katrina is heading for 'Prime Oil Producing Real Estate' in the north central Gulf.
Unless the forecasts prove very wrong (as in landfall 250 miles to the east, or the storm is much weaker) -- Oil prices
will jump tremendously on Monday. Last year IVAN took out fully 6% of the entire U.S. annual Production of oil
and a fair amount of this years record high prices has to do with the 'threat' of another IVAN. On Friday, the 'market
thought' Katrina would be a CAT 2 in the Florida Panhandle - and priced oil accordingly. If Katrina 'stays on course',
prices will jump $3-$5 per barrel Monday morning. Further increases to $75/bbl may follow Tuesday if there are reports
of serious infrastructure damage on par with that done last year by IVAN - by far the most expensive hurricane to affect
the U.S. oil producing industry.
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hnsez Donating Member (430 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 09:05 PM
Response to Reply #83
85. Oil could hit $75/bbl Tuesday
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HeeBGBz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 09:25 PM
Response to Original message
88. Last report seems to be shifting a bit east
Should know a little more about 10.

Better news for N.O., worse news for me...
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Corgigal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 09:26 PM
Response to Original message
89. My area was hit by a Cat 4 who was large like this one
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 09:28 PM by Corgigal
This whole place, Charleston SC and surrounding area,leave the area now when we are under a warning. It wasn't always this way. Not only do you have to hear those winds and wonder if your house will make it, then you have to wait in long lines to get water.

This shit isn't worth it. Pack up living things, insurance forms and go. Don't be like the people who stayed with Hugo. Downtown Charleston was completely under water. Not NO style, but deep enough.

This is a scary time for people living in Louisiana and Mississippi.
Please leave. If you have to go to a southern eastern state then PM me. I can figure something out.

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MidnightWind Donating Member (428 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #89
97. Here's the even scarier part with a storm like this:
Hugo made landfall near Charleston, marched up through the center of the state of South Carolina, and 12 hours later, struck Charlotte, NC, 175 miles away from its initial landfall. At the time it hit Charlotte, it was still a 100-mph hurricane and did major, major, major damage to the area. Virtually the entire state of South Carolina had damage--some of it exactly like the photos posted above. Entire forests were lost and the state's timber severely impacted. Until Andrew came along, it was the costliest natural disaster ever in the United States. I cannot stress strongly enough that you cannot operate under the ilusion that you will be safe because you live inland. With a storm of this size and this intensity there truly is no safe area. I wish I could be more optimistic about this but after living through one of these monsters, I know whereof I speak. I am thinking the very best for all of you in the path of this storm and if I could give you one bit of advice-it would be this: get out now.
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Withywindle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 11:06 PM
Response to Reply #97
98. I remember that!
My parents live in southwestern VA, in the Blue Ridge Mountains -- people took big hits up there. Roofs came off, whole woods full of trees came down, roads were blocked...and this is very, very far from the landfall, in an area usually protected from extreme storms to some extent by the mountains. They hadn't seen wind like that in living memory.
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Media_Lies_Daily Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 11:13 PM
Response to Original message
99. For those who may not be familiar with NO, here's a good map....
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Endangered Specie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 11:36 PM
Response to Original message
102. Here are some interesting images about NO I came across...
Edited on Sat Aug-27-05 11:36 PM by Endangered Specie
http://img381.imageshack.us/img381/5425/elevationmap9ox.gif

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/images/goingunder_jpg.jpg


youll have to cut and paste these bc the last one is 1.4MB and
would screw up dial up users if it was embedded.
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Hardrada Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 01:38 AM
Response to Original message
104. New Orleans is the city I love visitng the most.
I am watching this with great concern. I don't have any one there now I know but feel empathy with all there nonetheless. I always had a storm worry in my mind during each of my NOLA visits incidentally.
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Baclava Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 01:49 AM
Response to Original message
105. CAT IV - 145mph winds...still moving WNW
Hurricane Katrina Special Advisory Number 20

Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on August 28, 2005

...Katrina strengthens to category four with 145 mph winds...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north central Gulf Coast
from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida
border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 25.1 north... longitude 86.8 west or about 310
miles... 500 km... south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi
River.

Katrina is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph. A gradual
turn toward the northwest is expected later today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 935 mb...27.61 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide
levels...locally as high as 25 feet along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.




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frustrated_lefty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 03:08 AM
Response to Original message
106. Update
From http://www.weather.com

"Hurricane Katrina is an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Maximum sustained winds have now been greatly increased to 145 mph. All day long Saturday, Katrina was not only gathering strength but also growing very large in size with hurricane-force winds extending out 45 miles and tropical storm-force winds extending out 160 miles from the center. Everyone along the northern Gulf of Mexico needs to take this hurricane very seriously and put action plans into play now. Hurricane Katrina has begun to make a deliberate, gradual turn to the west-northwest. Based on this trend of turning toward the Gulf Coast, hurricane warnings have now been hoisted from Morgan City, La., to the Florida-Alabama border. This includes the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch have been issued from the Alabama-Floridas border eastward to Destin, Florida and from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

From this point on through landfall, Hurricane Katrina will continue to turn, first toward the west-northwest overnight, then to the northwest on Sunday, then finally toward the north before making landfall on Monday. Well ahead of the center there will be very high surf crashing ashore in the northern Gulf starting overnight into Sunday Night. You'll need to use extreme caution or just not go in the water at all along all of the northern Gulf beaches from Louisiana to western Florida due to this increased surf. Extreme damaging winds, high life threatening storm surge, and deadly flooding rains with possible tornadoes are expected at landfall. Once Hurricane Katrina makes landfall, it will progress inland Monday into Tuesday with a trail of flooding rains and damaging winds across Mississippi and Alabama and then into Tennessee. Late Tuesday into Wednesday the very heavy rains and gusty winds will progress from the Tennessee Valley to the eastern Ohio Valley."

Best wishes to the folks north of here. As of 3am CDT, it's very, very quiet in New Orleans.
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DLnyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 04:36 AM
Response to Original message
109. Cat 4 now, expected to strengthen
Sorry, this is a dupe, but makes more sense here, I think.
also, sorry about the caps. That is how the message is displayed on the site


From Public Advisory
#21
at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov /

(4:00 am CDT Sunday Aug. 28)

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA
IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE HURRICANE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
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redacted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:06 AM
Response to Original message
110. VIDEO: NEW ORLEANS EXPECTS MANDATORY EVACUATION (WWL CBS4)
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Hello_Kitty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:06 AM
Response to Reply #110
111. I sure hope they get out ok. n/t
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redacted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:06 AM
Response to Reply #111
112. Me too; this thing is a borderline Category 5 hurricane
according to the live coverage at about 4 AM local time
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DLnyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:06 AM
Response to Reply #110
113. Could approach Cat 5 on landfall
Edited on Sun Aug-28-05 04:59 AM by DLnyc
From
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/280910.shtml

. . .
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005
. . .
THE INTENSITY FORECAST
ANTICIPATES THAT KATRINA COULD APPROACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY DOES FORECAST 140 KT AT
24 HOURS... BUT IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT INTERNAL STRUCTURAL
CHANGES COULD CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY... SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT 135 KT. WHILE THE DETAILS OF THE
LANDFALL INTENSITY CANNOT BE NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME... KATRINA WILL
BE A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
. . .
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:06 AM
Response to Original message
114. Hurricane Katrina becomes category 4 storm (AFP)
Edited on Sun Aug-28-05 02:05 AM by Up2Late

Hurricane Katrina becomes category 4 storm


28/08/2005 06h39

MIAMI (AFP) - Hurricane Katrina, churning in the Gulf of Mexico, was upgraded to a category four storm capable of causing major economic damage, the government weather service announced.

The National Hurricane Center said that around 0515 GMT, a US Air Force plane flying over the eye of the hurricane detected maximum sustained winds reaching 233 kilometers (145 miles) per hour.

The designation brings Katrina close to a killer storm as the Saffir-Simpson scale used to measure them has only five grades. "Some additional strengthening is possible today," the center warned in its latest advisory. "Preparations to protect life and property should be pushed to completion."

Hurricane warnings were in effect along the Louisiana coast as thousands of people fled New Orleans and other parts of the southern state.

<http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/050828063542.1hfem6uy.html>

(more at link above)

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MnFats Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #114
115. Run for your lives! Everybody get the hell out of Louisiana right now!
Edited on Sun Aug-28-05 01:58 AM by MnFats
you're all doomed if you don't flee right now!!!

(sorry. I couldn't resist. I confess to being an asshole tonight.)

this is only a reference to post below...

I AM truly concerned about our brethren at the opposite end of the Mississippi....
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frustrated_lefty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #115
129. Doomed, my butt.
My 5 yr old daughter informed me tonight that she will achieve "world domination." I can only assume she will pull out her trusty sword, call upon her trusty squire, and let loose the dogs of war! :)
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Pachamama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #114
116. Attn: Swamp Rat & other New Orleans/LA DUers: Please Leave!
Seriously....from everything that they NOAA and weather folks are saying about this one and from my intuition, this is NOT one to brave it out....

:hug:
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kestrel91316 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #116
121. Swamp Rat reported in on another thread ...........he IS evacuating
with his dad, but his mom and her SO are STAYING (at the Monteleone Hotel downtown) since he is frail.

I don't like the sound of that if it's a Cat 5. Mandatory evacuations have just been ordered. There will be no help if those old folks get into trouble with the possible 40 ft of water and 175 mph winds.
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Baclava Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #114
117. It's not done strengthening yet, either...
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Pachamama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #117
118. I think its going to end up being a CAT 5 by the time it hits New Orleans!
This one may be the "biggie" that everyone knew was going to come someday....

:scared:
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 06:29 AM
Response to Reply #118
132. They said she would turn Northwest from
yesterday and she did not. New Orleans may escape a direct hit.

Wherever takes that direct hit will face a Cat 5 - this is a disaster in the making.
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MnFats Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #117
119. Holy S***! I may be an ignorant fool, but...
...that looks like one bigass storm.
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Gemini Cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #114
120. Whoa!
This is big!

Get your collective asses out of it's path if you are able.
If you can't, please be safe!
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dcq Donating Member (3 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #120
123. Katrina update site
The weather geeks have an excellent site at http://www.geo-earth.com/forums/

I read DU as well as the "other"side, preppers, conspiracy theorists, and fringe dwellers, for a fair and balanced...no, wait, that's Fox! Anyway - the weather geeks are pretty even headed...they are freaking out about the potential for Katrina's damage. One of the main administrators is in New Orleans and his assessment is chilling. He is now packing up and heading out - feels this could be one of the worst natural disasters ever..... Having been through many typhoons in Guam, (we consider 130 mph a "banana storm") and several super typhoons, I can tell you, it is nothing to ignore. We live in concrete bunkers, not the pretty wood structures that dot the New Orleans countryside, nor the wood shacks the poor folks live in.

Unfortunately, our TV is on a two week delay - only live international/US news is CNN International, and FOX. Somehow the rapper getting shot in the leg seems to be of equal importance to the pending disaster of Katrina. Go figger!
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #123
126. I always wondered how folks on small island survived big storms
Does Guam have any "high ground" to run to? How do folks on the small islands survive these?
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Babette Donating Member (810 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 09:08 AM
Response to Reply #126
160. I lived on Guam for about 10 years....
We went through many typhoons- from little "banana storms" of 70 mph winds to supertyphoons with almost 200 mph winds. Most of the homes there are built of reinforced concrete and can withstand the force of the wind. Lots of people have custom typhoon shutters for the windows. Everyone else boards up with plywood. Schools act as shelters for the poor who live in wooden homes. Trees in exposed areas don't get too big, as the winds tear them down. Beach areas can get flooded, but every storm is different. Some storms bring flooding, others are very "dry" storms with a salt spray that covers the island.

The ancient Chamorros who lived on the island considered the beaches to be a bad place to build because of flooding. The "black sheep" or outcasts would get land on the beach. Now however, westerners have changed the culture so that beach homes are desirable.

There isn't much lowlying land on Guam. The southern end of the island is made up of large hills and mountains. The highest point is Mt. Lamlam at about 1300 feet. In the north there are tall limestone cliffs either close to the beach or within a quarter of a mile.
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TaleWgnDg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #123
127. welcome to DU, dcq . . . where are you? n/t
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #123
130. 145 is almost cat5 -- way ahead of schedule.
For those that haven't been following up to now, the NHC showed 115mph winds all day long. At 11pm it was predicted to become CAT4 at 11pm TOMORROW and now suddenly it is already at 145mph sustained winds.

I say suddenly but the NHC updates only come out once every several hours (which is really annoying.)

When it first crossed Florida, most of NHC's computer models predicted it would do a quick loop up through the panhandle before getting too severe. One predicted the swing into the gulf, but it was the odd man out. There was a lot of divergence.

There is less divergence in the models now. it is looking more and more like this is really going to hit NO.

NHC is still behind in updates as I write this but the following links should be updated soon, probably a bit after 5am. Click to enlarge.





(the dark blue computer model has been the most accurate throughout this whole thing.)
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Babette Donating Member (810 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 09:18 AM
Response to Reply #123
163. Uhh... Mom is that you?
Hey, glad you decided to start posting!
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #114
122. Here's the projected storm track and a link to this website
Edited on Sun Aug-28-05 02:15 AM by Up2Late
I've been watching storms though this websight for about 2 years now, and they have been about 95% accurate (99% when you get within 24 hours)

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/>

After clicking the link above, click on the Gulf of Mexico or the Storm it's self. Once you get down to the storm level, they even have "wind field" forecasts.

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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #122
124. Here's the current "wind field" for this monster, looks nasty
NOTE: this graphic will update it's self.

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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 08:28 AM
Response to Reply #122
154. DAMN! Hurricane-force winds all the way up to Nashville??
Tornadoes will probably be a big concern for the SE US, too.
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cyr330 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #114
125. I am so fucking glad. . .
Edited on Sun Aug-28-05 02:28 AM by cyr330
that I don't live in New Orleans anymore. I'm an RN and I worked at Ochsner Foundation Medical Center. Had I stayed in N.O, I would have been obliged to remain there (as all Ochsner employees are) for those who can't leave. While I DO feel for those who can't get out, I would prefer to be where I am!
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 05:07 AM
Response to Reply #114
128. UPDATE: New link with more info, Plus a very Cool Quicktime movie
<http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/050828072343.w39z7y6x.html>

Even with a fast connection this could take 30-60 seconds to load, but this is very cool and it is self updating:

<http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeseast/hurricane/colormov/0000_latest.mov>

<http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/>
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mom cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 07:18 AM
Response to Reply #128
136. That is one impressive graphic...I hope everyone gets out!
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peacebuzzard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 08:18 AM
Response to Reply #128
148. movie link not working?
:shrug:
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HeeBGBz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 06:31 AM
Response to Original message
133. Officially at Category 5, 160 mph
Plus it is just now coming into the hottest waters of the Gulf.
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peacebuzzard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 08:25 AM
Response to Reply #133
152. What is the distance from N.O. to Gulfport?
Edited on Sun Aug-28-05 08:25 AM by peacebuzzard
Sounds like the eye will be just east of the Big Easy.
How far inland are you and the animal shelter located?
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Algorem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 07:09 AM
Response to Original message
135. turned west a little
Edited on Sun Aug-28-05 07:16 AM by Algorem
I say it ends up hitting Texas/Mexico coast,and spread out and weakened by then,get yer bets in now
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mom cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 07:38 AM
Response to Original message
137. Katrins is now a category 5, pressure lower than Camille!
Edited on Sun Aug-28-05 07:12 AM by mom cat
http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad

Sustained winds of 160, gusts over 200
This is now the second strongest storm ever in the Atlantic Basin based on barometric pressure.
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gasperc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 07:38 AM
Response to Reply #137
138. will they have to create cat 6?
not really menat to be jokingly but it appears yet another side effect of global warming, increase in the intensity of the storm and pushing the readings off present scales
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mom cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 07:38 AM
Response to Reply #138
139. I just had the same dreadful thought..She is just now hitting the hottest
waters in the Gulf and has wind gusts over 200.
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Boomer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 07:38 AM
Response to Reply #138
140. I've asked that same question on the Science forum
Several times, in fact.

Frankly, I never got a satisfactory answer. There doesn't seem to be any physical law that limits the upper range of winds. It's just a matter of how hurricanes have acted in the past.

Which does beg the question of whether the nature of hurricanes is changing and will require an adjustment of the S-S scale.
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madrchsod Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 07:38 AM
Response to Reply #137
141. 908 at 7:30 and i bet it will keep falling
this maybe the first "storm of the century"
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unfrigginreal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 07:41 AM
Response to Original message
142. From Dr. Jeff Masters' Wunderblog
Posted By: JeffMasters at 12:24 PM GMT on August 28, 2005
Updated: 12:28 PM GMT on August 28, 2005
Katrina is in the midst of a truly historic rapid deepening phase--the pressure has dropped 32 mb in the 11 hours ending at 7am EDT, and now stands at 910 mb. Katrina is now the sixth strongest hurricane ever measured in the Atlantic, tied with Ivan. At the rate Katrina is deepening, she could easily be the third or fourth most intense hurricane ever, later today. The list of strongest hurricanes of all time includes:

Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb, 1988)

The Great Labor Day Hurricane (892 mb, 1935)

Hurricane Allen (899 mb, 1980)

Hurricane Camille (905 mb, 1969)

Hurricane Mitch (905 mb, 1998)

Hurricane Ivan (910 mb, 2004)

more...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
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shawmut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 07:43 AM
Response to Reply #142
143. the pressure dropped again. it has passed Ivan
pressure now at 908mb. :scared:
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DoYouEverWonder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 07:55 AM
Response to Original message
144. Party Goes on in French Quarter
August 27, 2005, 11:48 PM EDT

NEW ORLEANS -- The bands were blaring on Bourbon Street, the bar tables were packed and the drinks were flowing.

"The only dangerous hurricanes so far are the ones we've been drinking," said Fred Wilson of San Francisco, as he sipped on the famous drink at Pat O'Brien's Bar. "We can't get out, so we might as well have fun."

As Hurricane Katrina whipped its way through the Gulf of Mexico toward New Orleans, some tourists were forced to stay put because flights and rental cars were booked up. Others were lucky enough to change reservations early and get out of town.

<snip>

In the French Quarter, the revelers, street musicians, tarot card readers and fortune tellers carried on like it was any other Saturday.

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/wire/sns-ap-katrina-french-quarter,0,7288761.story?coll=sns-ap-nation-headlines


I just hope these folks are really, really drunk when this thing hits. At least they won't have a clue has to what hit them when it comes.

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leftchick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 07:55 AM
Response to Reply #144
145. death wish
they must all have a death wish. Stupid idiots.
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Minstrel Boy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 08:24 AM
Response to Reply #145
150. Denial
That's part of dealing with death, too.
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 08:25 AM
Response to Reply #144
153. If I was still sitting in a bar on Bourbon Street, drunk, when this thing
hits, and looking at a 20-foot wall of water coming at me, I'd be thanking God for a good life.

Drinking and high water result in drowning. Time for these folks to put down the glass and LEAVE. The party's OVER.
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Blue_Roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 08:40 AM
Response to Reply #144
158. this is nothing to play around with
Surely they are going to take this storm seriously today.
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OKNancy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 07:59 AM
Response to Original message
146. Dear LBN readers and posters
Edited on Sun Aug-28-05 07:59 AM by OKNancy
For now, let's post all hurricane related news here. When this thread gets over 200 or so, one of the mods or a poster can start a new thread with the latest data and maps. There are a lot of news stories out there today and it will continue tomorrow. Most LBN readers like to see LBN kept "neat and clean".

Thanks for your understanding and cooperation!
OKNancy, LBN moderator

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magellan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 08:10 AM
Response to Original message
147. Holy sh*t, look at the ships model winds forecast


Forecast for 24 hours from now is 174 mph?!?! Oh my God, I hope they're wrong.

My heart aches for everyone in this monster's path. Please get out of the way and leave a margin for error if you possibly can. Please.
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shawmut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 08:22 AM
Response to Reply #147
149. and the gusts would probably be well over 200mph
that is just insane. That's like a really bad tornado but instead of lasting for a couple of minutes, it's lasts for hours.
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Blue_Roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 08:38 AM
Response to Original message
157. Now a Category 5!
000
WTNT32 KNHC 281151
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...KATRINA...NOW A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

more...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2%2Bshtml/241445.shtml
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 08:58 AM
Response to Original message
159. Wind forecast for 24hrs from now is 174mph!
There's supposed to be another eyewall replacement and I saw some forecasted winds for 24 hrs from now to be 174mph! That'll mean gusts well over 200mph. That puts sustained winds at the F3 tornado level and gusts at the F4 level. You know what damage and F3 tornado wreaks, right? Usually in a confined area, though. Now, imagine an F3 tornado many miles wide.
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magellan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 09:17 AM
Response to Reply #159
162. YIKES
:( :scared:

I can't bear the thought of anyone being caught in that. I wish Katrina would DIE.
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mcscajun Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 09:09 AM
Response to Original message
161. AP: Hurricane Heading for Gulf Coast Is Upgraded to Category 5
Hurricane Heading for Gulf Coast Is Upgraded to Category 5

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: August 28, 2005

NEW ORLEANS -- Hurricane Katrina strengthened to a dangerous Category 5 on Sunday with 160 mph sustained wind as residents of south Louisiana jammed freeways in a rush to get out of the way of the powerful storm.

The National Hurricane Center put out a special advisory on the hurricane's gain in strength just before 8 a.m. EDT. The boost came just hours after Katrina reached Category 4, with wind of 145 mph, as it gathered energy from the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico.

Officials worried that not enough people were taking the monster Category 5 storm seriously enough.
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OKNancy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-28-05 09:23 AM
Response to Original message
164. Time for a new thread
Slow loading because of all the images, I suspect.
Please go to:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1732733
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