( HURRICANE) Katrina could inundate New Orleans - 175mph winds, 28-foot

[OKNancy]

Katrina could inundate New Orleans
Evacuation ordered; 175 mph winds, 28-foot tidal surge possible

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/28/hurricane.katrina/

Sunday, August 28, 2005; Posted: 1:43 p.m. EDT (17:43 GMT)

NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana (CNN) -- Emergency officials in New Orleans braced for a potentially catastrophic blow on Sunday as Hurricane Katrina swept toward the Gulf Coast -- and the city -- with maximum sustained winds near 175 mph.

Mayor Ray Nagin declared a state of emergency on Sunday and ordered a mandatory evacuation of the city the Category 5 storm approached.

Forecasters said the storm surge could reach 28 feet.

"We are facing a storm that most of us have feared," Nagin said. "I do not want to create panic, but I do want the citizens to understand that this is very serious and it's of the highest nature. (Full story)

About 70 percent of New Orleans is below sea-level, and is protected by a series of levies.

[Ilsa]

1. Let's put Wolf Blitzer on it. He seems to "stim" on this sort of thing.

He gets really excited by impending disaster, and what's even more funny, gets disappointed when he's deprived and people survive.

[ldf]

70. maybe wolf

needs to go on a "walkabout" until he meets himself and sees the joke he has become.

[xultar]

2. I don't believe NOLA will take a full hit. I think it will come in west

of the great city. There will be some flooding but not as severe as everyone is claiming.

I used to live in NOLA and I just don't believe it will happen yet.

[Pithlet]

5. It does look like it's hooking to the left a little.

I hope so, for NO's sake. Still won't be a pretty, but hopefully not as devestating.

[Chico Man]

66. It's actually taking a turn for the worst

It would be better for NOLA if it took a turn to the right and passed to the east rather than the west.

[karlrschneider]

6. West is worse unless it's a LONG WAY west.

The NE quadrant is the most vicious.
(in our hemisphere)

[xultar]

12. True.

:cry:

[VolcanoJen]

30. CNN's hurricane expert expects the storm to take a turn to the north...

... and feels that this is "the big one" that NOLA has been worried about for so long. :-(

[opihimoimoi]

3. Please save Annette Street.........Oscar and Harold lives there

[xultar]

10. YOu know Harold. Old dude with a long grey ponytail!

[opihimoimoi]

20. Harold Boies...Creighton U 63.....Creole....married with 5 kids

Father worked for USPS mailman....Friends from College daze in the 60's

[KamaAina]

43. Save all the streets! Did you know KamaAina lived on a few of them?

mainly S. Carrollton Ave., where we hope Swamp Rat has left by now (hint hint), and also, briefly, the oddly named Louisiana Avenue Parkway (yes, you can abbreviate it La. Ave. Pkwy.)

If it were not for the crappy economy down there, I might very well be among the tens of thousands of carless New Orleanians today, though I trust that one of my fellow activists would have gotten me the hell out of there by now.

Ironic postscript: One of the main pro-choice activists in that era (early '90s) had a daughter who came to call me "Uncle (KamaAina)". She was rather prone to throwing tantrums, and her name was -- you got it -- Katrina...

:scared: :scared: :scared:

[opihimoimoi]

58. Damn, what a co incidense....Glad you here in Hawaii where we only

got volcanos and big waves....

Come, we go pray to the Gods for help...its beyond Bush.

[caligirl]

76. Former Hawaii resident here too, Kailua, Lanikai area. 6+ years.

I knew we wouldn't get to stay permanently, so we had both our kids while we were there. Favorite hike was Sacred Falls.

[Just Me]

4. Sheesh. That sucker is enormous!!!!

I am so very concerned for everybody in its path. :hug:

[mike_c]

7. Katrina is beginning to look a lot like Camille...

...but on a worse course. Whoa.

[Endangered Specie]

15. Right now I think its stronger than Camille.

[caligirl]

78. Right. of the two worst, camille is 2nd andf unnamed one in the 1930's

Katrina is slipping into 2nd place for now according to news I saw.

[Lindacooks]

44. Katrina's worse. Pressure is 902 mb; Camille was 909 mb

[iamjoy]

51. Is Pressure Is Lower Than Ivan?

I think Ivan's was 910mb.
Still a way to go equal or break the record of the Labor Day hurricane of 1935 which hit the Florida Keys with wind gusts of over 200 mph.

[Lindacooks]

90. The problem is Katrina is much larger than Ivan was.

More devastation over a larger area. And New Orleans has never taken a direct hit before.

[Roland99]

8. Seas at the eye are 55'

[cliss]

9. I understand there are a lot of people left in N. Orleans.

Apparently there are many thousands who do not drive, are elderly, or are too sick to leave.

I hope there are steps being taken to protect these people. They should put life jackets on them. Fill bathtubs up with water, so they have something to drink afterwards (if their homes are still standing, that is).

Maybe have access to a rowboat, or anything that floats.

Apparently this thing is going to strike in the dark, so that will compound the problem.

This thing looks like a killer. An absolute monster. Wherever that eye travels, it's going to demolish everything in its path. How much time do they have now? About 18 hours?

[Endangered Specie]

13. They are going to the SuperDome I believe

which is the 'safest' (least deadly) place to be, its high, very well built and relatively insulated.

As far as time goes, its going to hit around 6am Monday +/- an hour Central time (7am eastern)

[CottonBear]

17. The poor,sick and elderly are being taken to the Superdome.

This is what I just heard the mayor of NO say on CNN.
My deceased brother in law helped to build it. He was a master welder. if anything can withstand the hurricane it would be the Superdome.

I'm very worried about the animals at the NO Aquarium and the Audobon Park Zoo. :scared:

[MuseRider]

24. That is exactly what I was just thinking

and all the horse farms outside of town. Does anyone know if they have been evacuating animals? We set up during severe fire weather to send out alerts to those of us with trailers to evac horses or whatever needs to go and can be trailered.

[Chicago Democrat]

69. I hope it holds! May Tara protect New Orleans!

Om Tara Tutare Ture Soha!~

[iamjoy]

55. Hopefully, Our "Good" Fortune Continues

and the death toll is comparitively low. If you've noticed, even very powerful hurricanes seem to have relatively low death tolls in the U.S. compared to when monster storms hit some of the countries in Central America and the Caribbean.

I say relatively, because if it is one of your loved ones or friends who dies, it doesn't matter what the number is. But, Hurricane Mitch wasn't even that powerful when it hit Honduras and still killed 10,000 (yes, that is a one with four zeros). Hurricanes Andrew & Ivan combined killed less than 100 in the U.S. And I never consider a catastrophic and deadly hurricane good fortune, but I hope ya'll know what I mean.

One bit of optimism, even with all that warm water as fuel, storms go through cycles of strengthening and weakening. There is a chance this storm could weaken before hit land, although I don't know if it would be significant enough to make a difference.

[Endangered Specie]

11. Its estimated to 'weaken' to 160 when it finally hits...

However, that type of power doesnt require a direct hit on NO to do some really serious damage. It will likely be Ponchatrain that floods not the Mississippi

[shawmut]

14. Amazing visible satellite loop

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

[Elidor]

33. That is beautiful

Terrifying, but beautiful.

[robertpaulsen]

91. Thanks!

That is just freaking the shit out of me and my co-workers.

[maddezmom]

16. live broadcast on WDSU link:

http://www.wdsu.com/index.htmllive videw

[bustarbusto]

45. Garbled link

Descrambled, it's:

http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx (straight to Windows Media stream from local New Orleans news station)

or

http://www.wdsu.com/ (to the home page)

The headline on the page is:

"Hurricane Katrina: President George W. Bush Urges People To Take Katrina Seriously"

I hope that's not going to slow down the evacuation.

[maddezmom]

48. thanks and welcome to DU

:hi:

Been listening off and on all day...pretty good coverage.

[bustarbusto]

56. Thanks for the welcome!

I've been streaming it for awhile, too. Very creepy sense of unavoidable impending doom.

[Quetzal]

18. Holy $h!t, this thing is a monster

I've been through a category 3 hurricane - I couldn't imagine going through one of this monstrosity.

[MiniMe]

19. Pressure down to 906mb per The Weather Channel

Just heard it.

[malaise]

21. Gilbert (1988) was 881

and destroyed jamiaca from Morant Point to Negril and that wasn't Cat 5.
This is a catastrophe wherever it lands.

[Eloriel]

47. No, down to 902 since then. Not reflected yet in the

screen graphics on MSNBC, but the weather guy has been talking about it for at least 1/2 or maybe even 1 hour.

[MiniMe]

49. Yup, I saw that too. n/t

[rayofreason]

22. The best, latest info...

...can be found at the NOAA site

http://www.stormtracker.noaa.gov/stormtracker-katrina.htm

[RevolutionStartsNow]

23. I'm guessing we won't have to watch Anderson Cooper or Geraldo

standing in the middle of the storm, telling us how windy it is.

This seems much much worse than anything we've seen in a long time. Scary.

[frustrated_lefty]

25. 1pm CDT update from NO

The winds are kicking up a bit. I know it's the calm before the storm, but the weather in New Orleans is basically peaceful at the moment.

My wife's in the hospital with stomach problems. Otherwise, we would be SO out of here. NO is about to take a major hit, imho.

FL

[Spazito]

28. My prayers are with you and those who cannot leave

Stay safe!

[maddezmom]

35. thought are with you and your wife

:hug:

[bustarbusto]

26. NOAA Satellite Loop

Requires Java:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html

[shawmut]

27. Reports are the pressure has dropped again ... now 902mb

or 26.67".

[shawmut]

29. confirmed ... pressure drops to 902mb/26.67"

URNT12 KNHC 281825
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/1755Z
B. 26 DEG 20 MIN N
88 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2242 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 140 DEG 160 KT
G. 050 DEG 22 NM
H. 902 MB
I. 14 C/ 3050 M
J. 29 C/ 3064 M
K. 6 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 1234/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1812A KATRINA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 160 KTS NE QUAD 1743Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

[nodehopper]

32. what does that mean, exactly?

[Endangered Specie]

36. That is VERY low, even for a Hurricane...

A hurricane is a very big low pressure system. The lower the pressure, the worse the storm is. the record lowest pressure ever recorded in an atlantic cane is 888mb.

So it means that this thing IS as bad as everyone is saying it is.


more info:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane#Types_of_tropical_cyclones
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_pressure#Atmospheric_pressure_variation

[AngryOldDem]

37. That is lower than Camille

How does it compare to Andrew?

[shawmut]

39. It's 20mb lower than Andrew right now

Andrew at its stongest was 922mb.

[Endangered Specie]

40. Lets see (btw I edited my above post to add info)...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Andrew

Highest recorded wind in Andrew was 165mph.

" Andrew's peak winds in south Florida were not directly measured due to destruction of the measuring instruments. "

"27.23 inches 92.21 kPa" at landfall (which is 922.1 mb)

[AngryOldDem]

60. I just cannot fathom this n/t

[Chrisduhfur]

73. Damn.

I was hoping it was just the media trying to hype it up so that more people watch them.

[GOPNotForMe]

31. My thoughts and prayers for everyone in her path.

I went through three of the four that hit Florida last year. I can't even imagine a monster this big. This is awful.

[MIMIC]

34. The Weather Channel: winds of 184 mph (flight winds)

Just heard this a few minutes ago :S

[frustrated_lefty]

38. Lorien

commented in a previous thread that I was trying to "weather this out." I sincerely appreciate the concern. Truly. If I could bail, I would, this storm looks scary. As I've indicated elsewhere, my wife is in the hospital. My children and step-children are in my custody while my wife is attended to.

Maybe it sounds goofy, or irrational. I simply cannot leave my wife when she's already feeling scared and uncertain about her own well-being. I can't do that. Hospitals are scary places, and when you leave them you need a safe place to return to.

Peace.

FL

[cliss]

42. FL, I read about you on another thread.

I got worried after I read the post. From all of us here in Portland, we hope you weather this thing out. I'm glad you're able to keep posting and let us know how you are doing.

Hang in there.

[thinkingwoman]

53. I would never leave my husband

so I understand what you are saying. Be as safe as you can be.

My thoughts are with you and all others in this monster's path.

[frustrated_lefty]

71. Thank you, thinkingwoman.

I really appreciate the sentiment. I can't leave. We'll stay as safe as possible and already have the keys to the 2nd floor owned by the landlords.

[Oreegone]

79. 2nd floor is not high enough

They are saying it could be higher than that and even if it doesn't get that high the force would take out a second floor.

Wouldn't it be better if you were on high ground in a shelter? Wouldn't your wife feel better if you were alive than just because she wanted you to stay put and she loses you all?

There is going to be an extreme amount of life lost. Please don't be among them. Please, please please.

[BamaBecky]

84. Go to the hospital!

They will accomodate family in the halls for this type situation........just go......take pillows and blankets and snack food.........you will be safer there at the hospital than on the 2nd floor anywhere in NOLA..............

Go..........

Bama

[divineorder]

54. FL

What are the doctors saying? Are they at least telling visitors who can leave to go? Can she be discharged temporarily until this thing is over? And I believe she would rather have you go and know that you and the kids are safe and sound even if she doesn't make it. Wives and mothers are like that sometimes.

[frustrated_lefty]

72. Divineorder

I appreciate the thoughts. She went in last evening. As of a few hours ago, she still hadn't seen a doctor. In brief, what she went in with was a gastric disorder. She can't ingest fluids or solids without vomiting. From what I can tell, she's experiencing electrolyte imbalances. A temporary discharge could be potentially dangerous.

She would freak if the kids were driven anywhere. She would lose it, and might insist on a temporary discharge even if it harmed her.

[iamjoy]

61. Frustrated Lefty...

Will they at least let you stay at the hospital with your wife? I don't blame you for not leaving, I wouldn't leave my husband, but if I were in your wife's spot, especially if there were children, I would tell you to take the kids and go.

We hope you manage to check back in with us after the storm, so we know you are okay. I can only imagine with the area being so devastaed, that may be a challenge (and you'll probably have enough on your mind).

But know the spiritual ones are praying for you, and even many of the non-spiritual ones have you in their thoughts.

[frustrated_lefty]

75. Dear iamjoy

Thank you for your thoughts. My wife and I have 3 kids and a spunky little furball of a dog. It would not be realistic for me to stay in the hospital with her.

On some days, she would yell at me to get out of town. On others, she's very protective.

We'll make it through this, and my children will be fine if I have to carry them upon my back.

I try to avoid "religious" terminology, but bless all of you who have expressed your kind concern.

[faithnotgreed]

64. lefty - our thoughts are with you and your family

i dont know if there is a shelter or concrete building that you can get to...

hugs and prayers for every one of you who cant leave the area
please check back in with us when you can

[frustrated_lefty]

74. Thank you for the kind thoughts.

When weather permits, I'll bring an update. :)

[faithnotgreed]

97. we all look forward to that very much

[President Kerry]

83. Hey - take care of yourself and family.. n/t

[Lorien]

92. Is there someone who can take your children with them out

of town?

A hurricane is nothing to put a child through-or even a dog. There is absolutely nothing anyone can do to "protect" them once the storm hits. I'm sorry to sound so grim, but I've been through a much milder version of what's bearing down on you now and I would never stick around for another again. If I were your wife, I would be begging you to take the kids and go. I do understand that you feel it's important to stay with her-no one would want to be faced with such a choice. If your children are out of harms way, at least you'll have one less concern on your shoulders.

:hug:

[lovuian]

41. You know Scientists have been warning New Orleans is

vulnerable and its now hit reality time!!! We have heard predictions of coastline being swallowed up by the water levels rising from Global Warming ... This could be the real deal here!!!

[opihimoimoi]

59. Yup, Mrs Murphy is coming to TOWN....

[steve2470]

46. self delete nt

[EndElectoral]

50. Let's hope Bush doesn't make a PR event out of it!

and hope these people get to safety.....

[bustarbusto]

65. I'm sure he won't. And trained chickens will pilot the space shuttle.

I'm sure Shrub will use it as an excuse for additional massive tax breaks to big oil to, oh, what the hell, make sure supply isn't disrupted, or disaster assistance, or something, plus to push for additional nucular power plant construction.

Then again, he might do this:

Bush Announces Global Air Conditioner Initiative

[brooklynite]

52. NWS outlines grim forecast of devastion expected across area

The National Weather Service has issued a special statement outlining the damage that might be caused if Hurricane Katrina makes landfall as a strong Category 4 or Category 5 storm.

“Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer,” says the statement. “At least one-half of well-constructed homes will have roof and wall failure. All gabled roofs will fail, leaving those homes severely damaged or destroyed.

The statement says the majority of industrial buildings will become “non-functional,” with partial or complete wall and roof failure.

“All wood-framed low-rising apartments will sustain major damage, including some wall and roof failure,” the statement said. “Concrete block low-rise apartments will sustain major damage, including some wall and roof failure.”

The statement says high-rise office and apartment buildings will sway dangerously, “a few to the point of total collapse.” And all their windows will blow out.

Airborne debris will be widespread, and may include heavy items — household appliances and light cars and trucks —and even sport utility vehicles and trucks will be moved.

“The blown debris will create additional destruction,” the statement said. “Persons, pets and livestock exposed to the winds will face certain death if struck.”

Power outages will last for weeks because most power poles will be down and transformers will be destroyed. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and even the heartiest, if they survive, will be stripped of all leaves.

http://www.nola.com/newslogs/breakingtp/index.ssf?/mtlogs/nola_Times-Picayune/archives/2005_08.html#074545

[NMDemDist2]

63. does it mention that the city may have up to 20 feet of water in places

with the levee system holding it in and the pumps inoperable as they will be flooded?

I pray these scenarios won't happen, but the potential for devastation is incredible.

[Up2Late]

57. Harry Shearer just started his Radio show with the song "Louisiana 1927"

Probably one the saddest songs you'll ever hear, considering what's about to happen.

If you want to hear a re-play, it will be streaming "live" from WHYY and a few other stations at the links below: <http://whyy.org/91FM/> or <http://www.publicradiofan.com/cgi-bin/station.pl?stationid=1>

Harry Shearer's "Le Show" starts at 4:00pm EDT

"Louisiana 1927" Lyrics
Artist: Randy Newman
Album: Good Old Boys

What has happened down here is the wind have changed
Clouds roll in from the north and it started to rain
Rained real hard and rained for a real long time
Six feet of water in the streets of Evangeline

The river rose all day
The river rose all night
Some people got lost in the flood
Some people got away alright
The river have busted through cleard down to Plaquemines
Six feet of water in the streets of Evangelne


CHORUS
Louisiana, Louisiana
They're tyrin' to wash us away
They're tryin' to wash us away
Louisiana, Louisiana
They're tryin' to wash us away
They're tryin' to wash us away

President Coolidge came down in a railroad train
With a little fat man with a note-pad in his hand
The President say, "Little fat man isn't it a shame what the river has
done
To this poor crackers land."

CHORUS
<http://www.lyricsdepot.com/randy_newman/louisiana-1927.html>

[shawmut]

62. btw - we have two more on the way

DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY INDICATE THAT A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.


SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA AND IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR MONDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 MPH.

[bustarbusto]

67. Nuclear power plants and flooding?

I was just mulling over how well nuclear power plants might hold up under 20 feet of water. It seems there are about three in the path of the storm:

http://www.deq.louisiana.gov/surveillance/repr/map.htm

I hope they're designed to handle a direct hit from a Category 5.

[aquart]

81. Oh, thank you. There's another thought.

Tomorrow's gonna be a hell of a day. I hope, by next week, everyone here will be telling me their story of survival.

[bustarbusto]

82. Luckily...

the IAEA's holding a conference on the subject tomorrow:

http://66.102.9.104/u/IaeaORG?q=cache:DyR6xjzBimkJ:www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/News/PDF/tsunamiprog.pdf+flooding&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

[Massacure]

96. They are protected by a four foot thick concrete dome.

Those reactors will be fine. The domes are designed to withstand a 747. It's not likely there will be that big though. Plus they can be isolated from the outside world, so I doubt flooding will be an issue with them.

Of course all the transmission equipment outside the reactor will be destroyed, but the same is true of all of the transmission equipment at fossil fuel plants.

[Penndems]

68. National Hurricane Center 5:00 p.m. EDT Update

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282041
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA HEADED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY
FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.

KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. SOUTHWEST
PASS...NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 53 MPH.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
902 MB...26.64 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...26.9 N... 89.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 902 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

[Oreegone]

77. Get to a Shelter...for Gods Sake...!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you get stranded in this even if you don't drown, which you very well could, the resources to get you, your children and animals may be long in coming, if you are not in a centralized zone. This is going to be very much like the tsunami damage.

Pray it does not go to the west. It is the eastern side that the waves are the highest and the damage is the greatest. Just watched a long disseration on it on the Weather Channel this morning.

[tedzbear]

80. The New Orleans Sports Dome can only withstand 200 mph wind max.

I heard this on the Weather Channel. I wonder how high the top gusts will be from Katrina?

[Oreegone]

98. There are other Red Cross Centers

There are other well built Centers on high ground....please get out. Your children will be terrified even if you do survive.

[DLnyc]

85. radar doesn't look good

from NOAA site New Orleans,LA weather
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Orleans&state=LA&site=LIX

(click on left image under "Radar and Satellite Images")

Long Range Composite loop: very detailed radar, showing eye off LA coast (takes about a minute to load on a dial-up)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.klix.shtml

Storm total Precipitation loop; Tip of delta already got 4 to 6 inches rain, NO 1 inch (takes about a minute to load on a dial-up)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.80stp/si.klix.shtml

[BamaBecky]

87. Welcome to DU DLnyc.........long way away from home?

Thanks for the links!
Bama

[DLnyc]

94. actually in NY

Just been following the storm on the net. Thanks for the welcome. I don't like to be an alarmist, but this storm looks like it could be really bad. Where in 'bama are you? I hope not near the coast!

By the way, NOAA seems to have changed their site, right after I posted, to a fancier version. I find that kind of weird.

[BamaBecky]

86. BamaBecky here 80 miles north of Mobile.........

People have been gassing up and boarding up here all day long. I saw lots of traffic pulling through going north on Highway 43.

I'm old enough to remember Camille. This is going to devastate the greater New Orleans area and points north......and even over here in Alabama we are expecting extensive power and gas outages.......we have prepared for a seige...........

The thing I hate about it is losing air conditioning during this sweltering heat.....but if that's all we lose...I'll consider us lucky! We have a generator and stored up 20 gallons of gas. That's enough to run the fan and the TV and some lights...and maybe the freezer.....sheesh!

I fear for the loss of life in and around New Orleans......
and the homelessness that will follow............

And I'm praying this thing doesn't turn toward us!
Bama

[caligirl]

115. BB, went to school in Mobile in the late 70's, Providence Hosp

nsg school. I am speechless. Hoping Mobile is spared. Its awful to have to sit and watch this happen. remember if you can, post to let us know if your okay. Any chance you could wait this out in P.cola? I don't know if that causway has ever been rebuilt(left in 79) but I would think it will be destroyed by this?

EDIT: I just reread, your 80 miles up above Mobile.

[AngryOldDem]

88. What about the Mississippi and Louisiana north of NO?

Someone pointed out to me earlier that the storm surge will most likely cause the Mississippi to reverse course -- just how far upstream I don't know, but given that levees protect Louisiana along the Mississippi as well, what does that mean for the southern two-thirds of the state? Would it be overstating it to say that this could be the worst natural disaster we've seen in the modern era? This is just beyond words.

Godspeed to all in Louisiana.

[NeoConsSuck]

93. Are you forgetting the recent tsunami?

[martymar64]

89. This one is looking . . .

like the one that wiped Galveston out in 1900. The was an article in National Geographic a few months back that concerned the erosion of the bayous. The was a photo of a guy in the middle of Bourbon Street with an 18 ft pole. They captioned that this was how high the water could get in a Category 5 hurricane. I didn't think it would happen this soon. They predicted a possible 50K dead.

[Oreegone]

95. City likely left a cesspool

MSNBC is saying that 60 to 80% of the homes will likely be totally destroyed and upwards to a possible 1 million left homeless. Wow...they say it is at least equal to Camille with the chance of strengthing.

They say the mixture of sewer water, chemicals from plants and dead things along with the coffins it will bring up will be grim.

[NeoConsSuck]

99. Why is the cloud temperature so cold??

I thought hurricanes gained strength from warm, moist air?

[brooklynite]

100. Experts expect Katrina to turn New Orleans into Atlantis...

...leaving up to 1 million homeless

(AP) — When Hurricane Katrina hits New Orleans on Monday, it could turn one of America's most charming cities into a vast cesspool tainted with toxic chemicals, human waste and even coffins released by floodwaters from the city's legendary cemeteries.

Experts have warned for years that the levees and pumps that usually keep New Orleans dry have no chance against a direct hit by a Category 5 storm.

That's exactly what Katrina was as it churned toward the city. With top winds of 165 mph and the power to lift sea level by as much as 28 feet above normal, the storm threatened an environmental disaster of biblical proportions, one that could leave more than 1 million people homeless.

"All indications are that this is absolutely worst-case scenario," Ivor van Heerden, deputy director of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center, said Sunday afternoon.

The center's latest computer simulations indicate that by Tuesday, vast swaths of New Orleans could be under water up to 30 feet deep. In the French Quarter, the water could reach 20 feet, easily submerging the district's iconic cast-iron balconies and bars.

http://www.nola.com/newsflash/louisiana/index.ssf?/base/news-18/1125269941148791.xml&storylist=louisiana
- - -
It says something when Government Officials stop hedging their language and speak this bluntly.

[Pirate Smile]

101. Hurricane Could Leave 1 Million Homeless

When Hurricane Katrina hits New Orleans on Monday, it could turn one of America's most charming cities into a vast cesspool tainted with toxic chemicals, human waste and even coffins released by floodwaters from the city's legendary cemeteries.

Experts have warned for years that the levees and pumps that usually keep New Orleans dry have no chance against a direct hit by a Category 5 storm.

That's exactly what Katrina was as it churned toward the city. With top winds of 165 mph and the power to lift sea level by as much as 28 feet above normal, the storm threatened an environmental disaster of biblical proportions, one that could leave more than 1 million people homeless.

"All indications are that this is absolutely worst-case scenario," Ivor van Heerden, deputy director of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center, said Sunday afternoon.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050828/ap_on_re_us/katrina_the_big_one_1

[Pirate Smile]

102. A "refugee camp of a million people" in the US.

"Estimates predict that 60 percent to 80 percent of the city's houses will be destroyed by wind. With the flood damage, most of the people who live in and around New Orleans could be homeless.

"We're talking about in essence having — in the continental United States — having a refugee camp of a million people," van Heerden said."

[clydefrand]

103. How long will it take Pat Robertson to come out with his

outlandish comments? Like, New Orleans is a city full of sinners and that's why God allowed it to happen to those people.

[VegasWolf]

104. It's obviously the fault of Gay Marriage!!!! nt

[u4ic]

114. Fred Phelps

and his lot will picket the refugee camp. :eyes:

[redwitch]

118. If that happens I will personally kick their asses

I have had just about enough of Fred and Co. "Don't make me come down there"

[Lori Price CLG]

105. Katrina May Be Most Costly Storm to Ever Hit U.S., Modeler Says

Katrina May Be Most Costly Storm to Ever Hit U.S., Modeler Says

Hurricane Katrina may cost insurers more than $30 billion, which would make it the most expensive storm to ever hit the U.S., a storm modeler said.

Eqecat Inc., which uses computers to gauge losses, estimated $15 billion to more than $30 billion in claims, with the higher estimate reflecting a direct hit on New Orleans. With sustained winds of almost 175 mph, Katrina is a Category 5 hurricane, the strongest level on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The storm may make landfall tomorrow morning with "potentially catastrophic" results, the National Hurricane Center said.

<snip>

Lori Price

[Lorien]

106. Good thing we spent that useless trillion dollar SURPLUS

attacking a country with no WMDs and no ties to 9/11, along with tax breaks for the needy rich.

:sarcasm:


:grr:

[Lori Price CLG]

107. All because whackjob Bush will not sign *Kyoto.* n/t

[Boomer]

108. You're not serious, are you?

Even if Bush HAD signed Kyoto, and even if every single country on the face of the planet stopped ANY CO2 emissions, this would still be happening.

The CO2 build-up began long before Bush was born, and the best his cooperation could do is (possibly) improve conditions for our grandchildren. Nothing will help those of us alive today -- the "healing" process takes longer than our puny lifespans.

So blame Bush for Iraq and thousdands of other ills, but not for Katrina.

[Kelvin Mace]

110. I think,

that the point being made is that the spending on Iraq removed funds which could be used to pay for the damage Katrina will cause, and that the continued refusal to deal with global warming dooms us to worse in the future.

[Lorien]

111. Actually, we would have bought some time had we

kept on the track started by the Carter administration. I have a friend in Antarctica who has been studying climate change for 45 years. Core ice samples show that a sharp increase in CO2 emissions began in the early 90's with the popularity of SUVs, increased industrial activity and deforestation. Reagan, Bush sr. Clinton AND Jr. all bear some responsibility for the conditions that exist today, according to Dr. Elliot. Decades ago, his team expected global warming to cause the conditions we are seeing today fifty years from now, but post Carter reversals on environmental policies pushed that timeline forward.

[caligirl]

116. I understand the east and West Coasts,Carribean will be affect by this

. but where can we migrate to over the next 100 years that might be safer? I have visions ogf that movie, were all heading to Mexicco and farther south.

We are having conversations about this with our kids, so we can start planning now.

[Lori Price CLG]

112. OBVIOUSLY, Katrina is not *Bush's* fault. But, his lack of action on...

global warming is NOT helping the crisis. YES, the CO2 build-up happened *long* before Bush took office (literally, *took* office), but do you think his policies and attitude work toward a possible solution or against a possible solution?

Lori Price

[Boomer]

113. I take it that's a rhetorical question

Of course he's not helping, so future generations are screwed. But blaming Bush for Katrina sounds like "It's all Clinton's fault."

We don't need to borrow blame where Bush is concerned. He's got more than enough to damn him to Hell.

[DLnyc]

117. not just Kyoto

Also a gung ho, oil-first energy policy, NO progress on alternative sources, no progress on conservation, hostility to mass-transit AND 5 1/2 years of claiming that global warming is not really happening (including editing evidence out of official reports).

[bemildred]

109. So far. nt

[barb162]

119. Does anyone know if the animals at the Audubon Zoo have

been taken to safer places? I keep thinking of animals in cages drowning....

These poor babies have no chance to get the hell out!

I saw a little blurb on TV about some of the dolphins from the aquarium being taken to hotel swimming pools to ride out the storm.

[ananda]

120. Not could but -will-

There are no ifs or coulds about it.

Katrina will definitely put NOLA, all of it, several feet under water.. for a very long time, if not forever.

Sue

[Moderator]

121. Time for a new thread

Please post here.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1733774
Thanks

[markus]

122. Some facts from an old N'wawlins boy

First, the Superdome is likely to be about the safest place to sit out the storm if you can't get out. It was built after Betsy (Category Five when it touched land, Category Four winds at the city). It was build to survive "a Betsy". The real problem will be how to care for 100,000 people surrounded by 18' of water that is not going anywhere.

The real danger from this storm is not the wind damage (however catastrophic that may be). Winds from Betsy (I belive were about 160 at landfall, measured at Buras at the mouth of the river) dropped to 120 in New Orleans. The storm immediately started to lose power as soon as it crossed land.

The city of New Orleans and it's immediate environs are protected by levees of 18 foot. The storm surge could reach 28 feet. That means at some point a cascade of water ten feet high pouring over the levees at some points.

Because the city is mostly at or below sea level, all water has to be lifted out by massive pumping stations, many of which will also be innudated and out of commision.

So, if the any part of the levee impoundment (the area inside the levee) floods high enough to drown the pumping stations, that water will stay there. Ultimately, after the storm, they will have to dynamite the levees in places to let the water out and expose the pumping infrastructure to that the rest can be pumped out.

The problem will be that anyone who didn't evacuate to a facility that can keep you above 18 feet will possibly have drowned. And the survivors will be in the middle of a large man=made lake and require resupply by air and water. For days or weeks.

I believe the core city will survive. A new analysis of wind and water data from Hurricane Besty I found on the internet last night support my long-standing assumption that the areas most likely to be innundated are New Oreans East and St. Bernard Parish. These are the leveed areas east of the Industrial Canal that bisects the city proper and connects the river to Lake Pontchartrain and a ship channel called the Mississippi River Gulf Outlent (MRGO)

The "Mr. GO" did castastrophic to the wetlands between impouneded (leveed) New Orleans East and the River. And this is precisely the area whrere the storm surge is most likey to reach truly catastropic proportions, with water sucked up the Mr. GO by the storm surge (essentially a localized tidal-like rise in water level caused by the very low air pressure in the storm) compouned by wind driver water in the north east quadrant of the storms.

The river threatens St. Bernard on the other side. In Hurricane Betsy, the river litteraly backed up, and rosed by as much as 20 feet, threatening to breech the river levees. It is widely believed that the US Army Corps of Engineers dynamited the levees in St. Bernard Parish to save New Orleans. If you want to dispute that in St. Bernard Parish, be prepared to fight you way out. I was editor of the weekly newspaper there, and talked to enough people to tend to agree with them.

The danger to the city and those who remain there is precisely that flooding. It could fill the impounded areas with water that might takes weeks to get down to a manageble flood, and a lot longer than that to clean up after.

In it's worse possible unfolding, this is going to look a whole lot more like the tsunami than any pictures you've seen of hurricane damage in Florida.

[Moderator]

123. Now the lock will go through

Please continue here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1733774