US interest rates 'to rise soon'/Times UK (check out growth rates)

[Gloria]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5-861031,00.html

October 20, 2003

US interest rates 'to rise soon'
By Anatole Kaletsky
AMERICAN interest rates are set to rise over the next few months, one of President Bush’s most senior officials told The Times this weekend.

However, far from being a dampener on the economy, John Snow, the US Treasury Secretary, said that Washington would welcome such a move because it would underline the strength of the country’s growth prospects.

SNIP

While Mr Snow refrained from discussing monetary decisions, which are left to the Federal Reserve Board, his comments implied that the Bush Administration was preparing for much higher rates in the election year ahead — in contrast with Wall Street, where many leading banks are still predicting that there will be no tightening of monetary policy until 2005.

Mr Snow, referring to his previous Times interview in July when he described the US economy as “coiled like a spring”, joked: “The spring has now sprung.”

The estimates of private economists, based on recent consumption and output figures, suggest that the US economy may have grown by up to 7 per cent in the third quarter. Although Mr Snow did not endorse these estimates, he said that growth in the year ahead would be about 4 per cent and would “produce loads of jobs”. Referring to the rule of thumb that the US must generate 200,000 jobs a month to cut unemployment, he noted that 4 per cent growth would “translate into roughly two million new jobs from the third quarter of this year to the third quarter of 2004 – that’s an average of about 200,000 a month”.

He added, “I would stake my reputation on employment growth happening before Christmas. I’d bet dollars to doughnuts that we’re going to see a pickup in jobs in the next few months.”

MORE

[xray s]

1. How much of that consumption and output is military?

I bunch of it, I bet.

Seems to me we will see something more like the stagflation of the 70's; high unemployment and high interest rates.

[teryang]

3. 49% increase in defense spending

...in the third quarter. It was huge. I read that in one report. Don't have the cite.

[leesa]

2. Aren't pre-Christmas jobs temporary employment?

[Lorien]

5. My thought exactly

there's always a bump in employment before Christmas! It's after the holidays when we really need to worry (or rather, the * misadministration SHOULD be worried about it)!

[twilight]

4. rates on CDs went up at my bank

Just reinvested one I have at 4.5% ... best I could get ... *sigh*

:dem: :kick:

[T Bone]

6. we’re going to see a pickup in jobs in the next few months

uh, and that would be the temoporary Christmas hiring taking place...

Man, this guy is a freaking genius, huh?
And the sun is coming up tomorrow morning too, you goombah, if your boss doesn't nuke the planet before that.

[loudnclear]

7. Now that they sucked the middle class into home mortage ARMS

that will creep up and up and up...they are about to turn the screws to the rest of us.

[cliss]

8. Mr. Snow, I believe,

is a hand-picked appointee of the Bush, after recently firing the last one for being too 'blunt' about the economy.

Notice how John Snow is happy, upbeat, optimistic about the economy. He's been told to be this way.

Notice also how unprofessional he sounds; "I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that we're..." Why does he have to throw in doughnuts? It just sounds like he's lacking in credibility. What are his credentials, by the way. Besides having a very BROWN nose.

And as far as predicting jobs, I'd hold him to his promise about more jobs. We're 1 1/2 months away from Xmas. He says "the next FEW months". Typically, jobs drop off right after Xmas, like other people have correctly noted.