STOCK MARKET WATCH, MONDAY OCT 20....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday October 20, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 462
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 336
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 311 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 4 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 211
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 695
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 16, 2003

Dow... 9,721.79 -69.93 (-0.71%)
Nasdaq... 1,912.36 -37.78 (-1.94%)
S&P 500.... 1,039.32 -10.75 (-1.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.39% -0.07 (-1.50%)
Gold future... 372.20 -1.00 (-0.27%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
"Outside the Norms"

If one is just looking at the recent price action of the stock market, without regard to market history, everything appears to be A O.K. After all, some of the talking heads on TV have declared that the October 2002 low was the “Mother of all Bottoms.” Others have stated emphatically that the bear market is dead. And still yet, I have heard others calling for Dow 12,000. Sure, these comments are all representative of everyone’s hopes and desires. We would all love to see a return of the mid and late 1990s.

<cut>

I can tell you that the bullish comments we have all heard from the Wall Street cheerleaders is not based on sound analysis. It is purely based on Wall Street hope and hype. The bear market is not dead. October 2002 was not “The Mother of all Bottoms” and the Dow is not going to 12,000 until after this bear market draws to a conclusion. I still have minimum down side objectives for the DJIA of approximately 3,000. What we are hearing from these mainstream Wall Street cheerleaders will unfortunately cause great financial harm to those who buy their line.

Once again: This is a Bear Market Rally.

Since the rally off of the March low began, I have warned that nothing has changed in the bigger picture. I have said countless times that this rally is nothing more than a bear market rally. I have tried to present historical evidence in support of this argument. It is true that this bear market rally has lasted longer and gone further than anticipated and yes, it is possible that this bear market rally could still have a little further to go. Nevertheless, I have repeatedly warned that it was nothing more than a bear market rally and not to get too emotional about the rally as this emotion will cause you to lose site of the bigger picture. More recently I have warned about the signs of distribution and the fact that the rally out of the August low has been anemic. I now want to take a brief look at a few extreme examples that are warning those that are willing to listen that this bear market rally is indeed about to run out of gas.

Something big is brewing...

[ozymandius]

2. This is hello and goodbye (for now) Marketeers.

I may be back later today. So please keep a light on for me.

Thanks! And have a wonderful day at the Casino.

[JNelson6563]

3. haha "Casino"...I love it!

Take care Ozy, have a profitable day! :hi:

Looks like futures are postive thus far. While I have been up for about 2 hours already I have caught little blather. Still working on this massive mailing, wrapping it up today!

I will see what's up in the financial world in a bit. After I get child #2 up and out the door.

Julie

[On the Road]

18. I Hadn't Seen Tim Woods's Column

I like his technical charts. To add fundamentals to the technical comments, here are a couple of updated charts from Carl Swedline showing the overvaluation of the market:





I would never bet the ranch against momentum after seeing the market a few years back, but the bear market is not over. There has been no bottom yet.

[rfranklin]

4. The sky's the limit! Here we go again!

While valuations are in many cases more outrageous than they were during the late 90's bubble, Wall Street and their cheerleaders are hyping the market shamelessly...

Is Dow 10,000 in the cards again?

With earnings rosy, investors ask if stocks can go higher

By Roland Jones
MSNBC

Oct. 19 — Wall Street faces the busiest period of third-quarter earnings season this week, with nine members of the Dow Jones industrial average due to issue results. If the news continues to be rosy, some are asking if the Dow can break through the 10,000 mark. Market watchers are doubtful, but say it could happen by year-end.

AN INDEX THAT MEASURES the performance of 30 companies considered leaders in their respective industries, the Dow isn’t Wall Street watchers’ preferred gauge of the overall stock market. For that, most follow the broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index.
But the Dow is the U.S. stock market’s most familiar index and if it were to break through the 10,000 level next week for the first time since May 2002 it would have psychological significance for Wall Street most market watchers say, although it wouldn’t necessarily be important from a technical standpoint.
“Dow 10,000 isn’t a key resistance level,” said Peter Cardillo, chief strategist at Global Partners Securities, referring to a point at which a stock or market stops rising because sellers start to outnumber buyers. “It’s more of a psychological overhang for the market.”

--more at--

http://www.msnbc.com/news/534548.asp?0cv=CB10

[JNelson6563]

5. Earnings season

CBS MarketWatch
U.S. stock market in thick of earnings season next week
Friday October 17, 5:10 pm ET
By Steve Gelsi

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Corporate earnings take center stage in the U.S. stock market next week as nine components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average weigh in with their latest results.
On deck to report profits are: Merck (NYSE:MRK - News) , 3M (NYSE:MMM - News) , McDonalds (NYSE:MCD - News) , Citigroup (NYSE:C - News) and JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM - News) .

Also, SBC (NYSE:SBC - News) , AT&T (NYSE:T - News) , Microsoft (NasdaqNM:MSFT - News) and Eastman Kodak (NYSE:EK - News) will update Wall Street on the most recent three months.

I recall a recent wrap-up where they said if they were a CEO they'd show up on the financial shows, put in a nice showing and jsut be sure to "beat the Street" expectations by a penny or more and Voila!! It's all good. This what I expect to see.

Funny thought that upon closer examination, often times a better dividend than expected is often accompanied by lower-than-expected numbers elsewhere in the earnings report, often shown very little attention. ;-)

Futures are not as bright and sunny as they were earlier this morning.

Will check back at open or if something big hits. Will be finishing up the last few hundred eveelopes to be return-address labeled. Oy!

Julie

[Maeve]

6. Pullback? or not?

Waiting for that pause
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - One common characteristic of market rallies that keep on running is that they are chock full of people saying a little pullback is in order.

Then there the times when the market is about to fall dangerously. What you usually see then is a lot of people saying that stocks need to pull back, but not so much that it's a reason to abandon them.

And sometimes when people call for a little pullback, as of course they are now, stocks have a little pullback and then head higher. Go figure.

Now that we've slapped enough warning labels around the joint, we can start talking about the week ahead. (And if you want details on the week's key events, you should click here.)

So, given the way companies have been beating third-quarter earnings estimates like they were Gerry Cooney's face, what's all this about the market stalling? The sense on Wall Street seems to be that great as the results are, investors pretty much expected them and loaded up ahead of time, which is why stocks have made little progress since earnings season kicked off.
<more>

[JNelson6563]

7. So far the buyers have it

9:36:


Dow 9,742.16 +20.37 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,917.35 +4.99 (+0.26%)
S&P 500 1,040.40 +1.08 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.420% +0.032

Wee-hoo!!

Julie

[Maeve]

8. Yep, another running of the bulls this morning

Dow 9,763.57 +41.78 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 1,919.99 +7.63 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,042.71 +3.38 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.419% +0.031

[Maeve]

10. Oops! Wrong way, bulls!

Dow 9,729.34 +7.55 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,909.62 -2.74 (-0.14%)
S&P 500 1,038.51 -0.81 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.414% +0.026

[UpInArms]

9. daily dollar watch

and we are seeing green - China and Japan must love us!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 92.62 Change +0.33 (+0.36%)

[JNelson6563]

11. Did anyone secure the bears?

Dow 9,709.05 -12.74 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,906.32 -6.04 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,036.41 -2.91 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.391% +0.003


10:34

Gold up 2.2 at 374.4

Hmmm.

Julie

[Coventina]

12. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hello everyone!

No changing lines today, so the only hexagram is PROMOTION. A very positive reading. "There is a Promotion on the horizon in the affairs of business. If you have been waiting for an opportune moment to put forth a new idea or to maneuver yourself into a better position, the time has come."

Looks like Ching is predicting an up day!

If anyone is interested, I've worked up a short essay I'm calling my manifesto. I posted it here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=105&topic_id=301515

See all of you later!
:hi:

[JNelson6563]

13. Bravo!!

Well done Coventina! You speak for many of us in that work.

Unlike your manifesto today's numbers are getting somewhat mixed reviews. 11:46 and they look like this:

Dow 9,728.76 +6.97 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 1,911.16 -1.20 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,038.35 -0.97 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.378% -0.010


Here's a bit o' blather with that:

Market Overview
Mon 11:38am ET
Mostly sideways since the last update, as the Dow is drifting with marginal gains and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are showing fractional losses... With little in terms of economic reports and corporate news to set the tone of the trade, today's action is relatively spiritless with the majority...

http://finance.yahoo.com

Julie

[UpInArms]

15. dollar not holding gains

Last trade 92.27 Change -0.02 (-0.02%)

could it have anything to do with this?

The Outstanding Public Debt as of 20 Oct 2003 at 04:13:46 PM GMT is:



and the fact that the Treasury numbers are due in at 2:00 EST?

[mrsteve]

14. 12:15 - Afternoon marketeers!

So it looks like a slow day, per Yahoo Finance. Volumes are a little off, but nothing major. Activity looks to be a sideways with a slight upward motion.

Dow 9,751.04 +29.25 (+0.30%)
Nasdaq 1,920.02 +7.66 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,041.34 +2.02 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.370% -0.018

Yahoo Fi updates:
"12:00PM: It's been a relatively slow morning, which is not to say that it's been entirely uneventful... Two Dow components reported earnings before market open, including Citigroup (C 48.03 -0.35) and 3M (MMM 74.57 +0.52)... Both companies checked in with above consensus EPS, although C's results were light on the top-line and as much is reflected in the stock's price change...

The market was trading with a slight bullish bias in the early going, largely on the optimism derived from the knowledge that Q3 earnings reported thus far have been 7.6% above expectations, according to First Call, and that total earnings growth in Q3 is expected to be in the range of 20%... The Leading Indicators report announced at 10ET checked in at -0.2%, its lowest level since March and was below the consensus of -0.1%... Although normally a non-event due to its largely predictable nature, the report was used as an excuse to take some money off the table... The market quickly realized, though, that the weakness was overdone and as a result, the major averages are now trading off their session lows and are back in positive territory...

Overall, the market is largely indecisive, as highlighted by the mixed breadth figures and modest volume levels.."

[mrsteve]

16. 1:15 - afternoon lull

Upward movement has stopped, sideways now the story:

Dow 9,744.98 +23.19 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 1,920.21 +7.85 (+0.41%)
S&P 500 1,040.64 +1.32 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.378% -0.010

Yahoo Finance is bored and a little oily:
"1:00PM: The major averages are little changed since the last update, although the Nasdaq has set a new session high in the last half an hour... Overall, the market has spent the session trading in relatively tight trading ranges, with the Dow, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq vacillating in ranges of roughly 60, 3, and 15 points, respectively...
The software sector has joined the semiconductor, computer hardware, and airline groups as leaders to the upside...
The airline sector, which is higher by 2.6% as indicated by the XAL index, is reaping the benefits of Southwest's (LUV 18.80 +0.40) earnings, which at $0.13 per share were in-line with the consensus... Also benefiting the group is the declining price of fuel, which is lower due to OPEC's decision to raise output of crude oil prices remain high... Currently, the price of crude oil is down $0.13 at $30.55/bbl..."

[KoKo]

17. An interesting view from "Market Week" Financial Astrology column. I read

this column weekly, just for added insight. And, particularly because many Market Timing Traders seem to have some interest in Astrology. I remember Arch Crawford commenting for years on CNBC and I always found his insights to be pretty accurate. BTW in the article he seems to feel we could re-test the Ocober 2000 lows.

Anyway, here's a clip from the article:

In the past week we saw many stock markets of the world
reach new yearly highs, including the Untied States,
Australia, England (FTSE) and Hong Kong. Japan is now
testing its yearly high, while Germany, Switzerland, and the
Netherlands are still well below the highs posted in the first
week of September during the previous big geocosmic time
band mentioned earlier. This type of intermarket divergence
is a sign that a significant decline could be readying. So,
too, is the technical picture involving weekly stochastics,
which are not as high as they were at the September tops,
a condition known as bearish oscillator divergence. And
Monday, October 20 will begin the 55th week since the
4-year cycle trough of October 10, 2002 in the U.S. stock
market. Fibonacci traders will quickly recognize the
significance of 55. And subscribers to our financial
newsletters will also remember that only 4 of the 75
instances of 50-week cycles since 1928 have seen the
crest of this cycle occur later than the 55th week.
Interestingly enough, the last cycle to make highs in the
55th week occurred in 1997, just before the currency crisis
hit the Pacific Rim and shocked the world monetary system.

Get ready. We are about to enter another very interesting
geocosmic time band. Unexpected events are about to
unfold in the next 5-6 weeks, and the psychology of the
world is about to shift once again. In fact, it has already
started.

http://www.stariq.com/MarketWeek.HTM

[mrsteve]

19. Wow - i'd forgotten how some of the esoteric stock analysis

...sounded like the complexities of casting horoscopes. Interesting comparison indeed.

12:52 numbers - starting to sag across the board:

Dow 9,730.16 +8.37 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,915.82 +3.46 (+0.18%)
S&P 500 1,039.21 -0.11 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.359% -0.029

[JNelson6563]

20. cool

so it's not all about the Beat-the-Street-by-a-penny game? <snarf>

Okey-doke, it's 2:21 and looks like things are inching downward:

Dow 9,729.35 +7.56 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,917.04 +4.68 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,039.21 -0.11 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.350% -0.038


Julie

[mrsteve]

21. 3:00 - Last hour roller coaster

...going up!

Dow 9,746.83 +25.04 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,917.45 +5.09 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,040.59 +1.26 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.364% -0.024

[JNelson6563]

22. 3:23 and still holding

Dow 9,747.05 +25.26 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,917.58 +5.22 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,041.02 +1.70 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.380% -0.008

Could be an upside finish......keep your fingers crossed (as good a strategy as any these days ;-) )

Julie

[mrsteve]

23. End of day - everyone happy 'cept the bond traders

as the 10 year noses down a bit.

Dow 9,777.94 +56.15 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,925.14 +12.78 (+0.67%)
S&P 500 1,044.68 +5.36 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 4.380% -0.008

See everyone tomorrow, same bat time, same bat channel, same irrational exuberance!