Dr. Gray Updates Hurricane Forecast

[IDemo]

SEPTEMBER 2, 2005 -- Long range hurricane forecasting expert Dr. William Gray from Colorado State University has updated his monthly forecasts for the Atlantic basin. The news is not good.

According to Dr. Gray and his team of forecasters, they're anticipating five named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes in September alone. For October, it's three named storms, two hurricanes, and one major hurricane.

Dr. Gray adds that the total numbers will be higher than anticipated in the full season forecasts issued last December, early April, and early June, and that "we expect by the time the 2005 hurricane season is over, we will witness seasonal tropical cyclone activity at near record levels."

To read the full report, click here (it's very technical, and loaded with some heavy-duty science).

http://www.wect.com/Global/story.asp?S=3798416&nav=2gQce3yU

[Birthmark]

1. Gray irritates me.

He always changes his bets in the middle of the game. Try that crap in Vegas and see what happens.

[donsu]

2. he knows more then you

nt

[Birthmark]

4. So what?

There are trash mashers that know more than me. How does that change what I said?

[supernova]

7. Newsflash: Weather is unpredictable

Our current state of technology does not allow us to predict very far into the future about what wheather systems will develop or when.

It's only reasonable that he would adjust his models based on new information. To not do so would be just adhering to a rigid, unworkable framework.

Besides, they have been saying for months that hurricane activity could increase in these next years because of global warming.

[Birthmark]

11. Wow!

I never dreamed that a little light-hearted ass-busting could inflame passions so much. I should become a troll. Looks like I have the innate ability.

I'm well aware of the problems involved of predicting outcomes in chaotic systems like weather. I'm sure Gray does as well as anyone. Maybe next year, I'll make predictions prior to the hurricane season and see how I do vs. Gray. That would be fun.

[IDemo]

3. Between 1984 - 1996:

"Dr. Gray's forecasts have been perfect three times,

- off by one hurricane twice, by two hurricanes four times, and by three hurricanes four times; on average, the forecasts are off by 1.7 hurricanes. Interestingly, a forecaster who stays close to the average usually won't go too far astray, given that only twice during the period 1984-96 did the number of hurricanes fall outside the range of three to eight. In fact, simply alternating forecasts of five and six hurricanes during the period 1984-96 would have produced an average error of 1.9 hurricanes. Note from the table that during nine of the thirteen years, Dr. Gray correctly predicted whether the observed number of hurricanes would be above or below the average of 5.7. When tropical storms are included in the total, Dr. Gray's predictions have been on the correct side of the mean eleven out of the thirteen years."

[Birthmark]

5. Is that initial predicitions?

Or is that updated predictions?

[IDemo]

8. I don't know

I posted a news story relating to our current news cycle, I didn't do a background check on the author or the subject of the story. I am not a climatologist, but I would think that in predicting something as dynamic as hurricanes, the only sensible thing to do would be to update your model as data flows in. If Gray is 'updating' his August prediction on August 15th or later, certainly I could see your point. But if he were to do that on a regular basis, he wouldn't have much credence, and he appears to have (credence).

Can you supply some background on your accusation?

[Birthmark]

9. It was in the first line of the original post.

"SEPTEMBER 2, 2005 -- Long range hurricane forecasting expert Dr. William Gray from Colorado State University has updated his monthly forecasts for the Atlantic basin."

[IDemo]

12. And in the second paragraph,

it is stated that the update pertains to September and October, not August.

According to Dr. Gray and his team of forecasters, they're anticipating five named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes in September alone. For October, it's three named storms, two hurricanes, and one major hurricane.

The third paragraph indicates that he does a continuously updated forecast for the full upcoming season, between December and June:

Dr. Gray adds that the total numbers will be higher than anticipated in the full season forecasts issued last December, early April, and early June, and that "we expect by the time the 2005 hurricane season is over, we will witness seasonal tropical cyclone activity at near record levels."

Wouldn’t failing to take into account the most recent climate data make the forecast as unreliable as a nightly weather report based on month-old satellite pictures?

[Birthmark]

14. LOL

Okay, I concede! Dr. Gray is a Nobel-level scientist, pure of heart, has the strength of ten, and should be beatified as soon as possible after his passing, may that be far, far in the future. :)

Nah!

"The third paragraph indicates that he does a continuously updated forecast for the full upcoming season, between December and June:"

And this is...? September! LOL

[IDemo]

16. I didn't start this thread meaning to become his publicist.

I'm not a climatologist and neither are you. But when you say Dr. Gray "pisses you off", you're trying to make it appear you have legitimate reasons, which you do not. For anyone involved in predictions for a dynamic system such as hurricanes or the climate in general, updating those predictions as the latest data become available is the only intelligent method. He's a scientist, not a reader of tea leaves.

The guy has forty years in this field, has won awards, is recognized by NOAA, and is widely considered to be the foremost expert in the world.

Why the hate??

[Be Brave]

18. Believe it or not, changing predictions based on

new observations is an inherent part of ALL science. With the tragedy that just happened, it would do us well, especially public officials, to listen to scientists, rather than be IRRITATED by them. With what I've been following in the news, researchers have called what has been happening right on.

[sal]

13. dude! you been served

knock it off

[bemildred]

6. Ah ,but don't you wish you could adjust your bets at Vegas?

But seriously, that's how it is with "reality-based" predictions, you have to adjust as you go along because reality doesn't care a fig what we think or what our silly little models say.

[donco6]

15. Why wouldn't you update your forecast?

He's not in it to win a stupid game. He's trying to keep people informed. He'd be irresponsible to do otherwise.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

17. This is not a game. Gray is not betting. He is updating based on new info.

This is not a game. This is not Las Vegas. Gray is not betting.

If he didn't update his forecast based on new info, you would be whining in here that he is too stupid to update based on recent events.

If you used your logic, you would on Monday look at the five day forecase and plan a weekend trip. Then on Friday you not bother to look at the forecast to update your plans because that would be "crap".

[rocktivity]

10. Any of them in danger of hitting New Orleans?

Not that they'd need an actual storm--too many sunshowers would be enough to do permanent damage.

:mad:
rocknation