NWS -New Tropical Depression forms in the NW Bahamas (Perhaps to hit La.)

[expatriot]

NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

Tropical Depression SIXTEEN Public Advisory
000
WTNT31 KNHC 061444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO
TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA
THE ABACOS...AND BIMINI.

(cont.)

Yesterday, it was on DU that some met. dept. at Florida State University projected this activity could hit La. as a Cat 3 but other meteorologists dispute this...

full DU discussion of this activity yesterday
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4645386#4645709

[Mizmoon]

1. If LA gets hit again

I will start going to church again because it will be clear that the ALmightly is out to get us.

[defiant1]

12. I'm not sure how that would make it clear....

that the almighty is out to get us.

Could just be the earth ridding itself of those pests known as humans.

[booksenkatz]

14. I won't start going to church again, because it will be clear

that I was right all along: he really doesn't give an eff about us whatsoever. (I'm an agnostic who leans deist -- I don't believe you can prove the existence of God, but if he's out there, he doesn't care about us.)
:(

[Tesibria]

2. Strike probability doesn't currently move westward

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145127.shtml?prob

or http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL1605P_sm2+gif/145127P_sm.gif

[Baclava]

11. Stay outta the gulf...

[Lochloosa]

3. Track has it on top of my head Saturday (Jacksonville, FL)

Should I notify FEMA today to let them get prepared?:sarcasm:

[booksenkatz]

15. I spent 7 years living on Pottsburg Creek down there

Man, the water would rise soooooo bad with a good heavy rain. Can't imagine what would happen to Jax if a real hurricane hit, with all of that water everywhere! I used to have to cross about 7 bridges just to get to the grocery store!

[Tesha]

21. If you do, make sure you send it "Return Receipt Requested"...

...so you'll be ready when they claim "No one warned us!"

Tesha

[Lochloosa]

22. Good Idea!

:rofl: but they will need three meetings to determine if they should sign for it.

[ktowntennesseedem]

31. Just tell 'em its the work of terrorists,

and FEMA's supervisors at the Dept of Homeland Insecurity will send troops to the Bahamas and fight the storm BEFORE it gets to Louisiana or anywhere else in the USA! Fight 'em there so we don't have to fight 'em here!

[DoYouEverWonder]

4. Seems the steering currents are starting to shift east

This one is more likely to stay small and go along the east coast or not get going at all.

Chill folks. I've been watching these things a long time.

What is odd is where it's forming but I still don't think it will be a problem for the Gulf.

[soup]

5. Strange system, isn't it?

How long has it been stationary? 2-3 days? and still 'just' a TD.

[Lochloosa]

6. I've been through four of these things....

Katrina was only a little further off the coast when it formed and it came ashore as a Cat 1. I'll chill later.

[iamjoy]

8. Yeah, I Need To Go Shopping

Time for more water and granola bars.

I have supplies, but it is like a compulsion any time there is even an eensy chance we could get hit.

[iamjoy]

7. That Would Be Horrible

The few people left there have no idea what is coming their way because they have no power.

The gulf coast is battered, but I guess we can hope many people may not be there.

The problem is, once an Atlantic storm crosses the Florida peninsula, it has to somewhere. And it has all that warm water in the gulf, so even minor storms here can be nasty on their second hit (as we saw with Katrina). We can hope it is moving quickly when it hits the gulf, that way, it won't have that much time to gain strength.

[ewagner]

9. Re: Hurricane Models

When discussion models and their associated predictions, please remember that there is very, very little human input into those models and that they are made based solely on:

1. Weather Observations
2. PHYSICS

[gorbal]

10. There are a couple of different ones, don't get them confused

One system is near the Bahamas, the other is right off the coast of florida, and Maria is currently just a threat to shipping interests in the Atlantic.

However: Does anyone else notice how storms have been ending up much worse than predicted lately? Perhaps they don't want people to panic and stop shopping.

[pursuivant]

28. Storms have been just as bad as predicted

If anything, the National Hurricane Center tends to overestimate hurricane strengths when they make landfall.

It's very easy to record and predict hurricane strength - there are satellites, sensor buoys and ground-based weather stations all through the Caribbean.

There might be plenty of blame to go around for lack of hurricane preparedness, but you can't blame the National Weather Service. So far, they've done a damned good job telling people exactly what's coming. This SPRING, they predicted a severe and extremely active hurricane season. Were I a commodity trader or regional planner, I would have taken that information to the bank - literally.

[pursuivant]

27. Huh?

How is this bad?

You've just described the modern practice in the science of meteorology.

I've been following the NHC web site since June. So far their "experimental" 5 day hurricane storm tracks have been fairly accurate in predicting direction and intensity of those storms.

No, the weathermen don't get it right all the time, but for the most part, 3-5 day forecasts are reasonably good.

[Skarbrowe]

13. I'm waiting for Hurricane Zippo. How many are we gonna have this year? nt

[mccoyn]

24. Or Aaron -nt

[pursuivant]

29. 18-21 tropical storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 5-7 major 'canes

Thus sayeth the NHC:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.html

So far we've had 16 storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, Katrina) and hurricane season traditionally runs until November 1.

[pitohui]

16. don't stress

if you get excited every time there's a low pressure system in the gulf or the atlantic yo'll wear yrself out

hurricane season is 6 mos. of the yr

no use borrowing trouble

most of these don't amt to much

[FlaGranny]

20. Agree. That stupid weather

has been sitting on top of us and raining on us for 3 days now. Got to watch it, but there is no use worrying about it.

I can say, though, that I hate it when they sit in one place like that so long.

The official forecast has the storm hitting near Jacksonville.

[demo dutch]

17. Nonsense NOAA and Canadian Hurricane ctr project No FL and GA

[northzax]

23. just out of curiosity

why the hell does Canada have a hurricane center? has a hurricane ever HIT Canada? isn't that a lot like Panama investing money in blizzard forecasting?

[ezekiel333]

25. They have been hit and...

they also need to monitor the North Atlantic for maritime interests as some of the hurricanes move north.

<http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/connection4.html>

[pursuivant]

30. Hurricanes can hit the Canadian coast

They can also seriously affect the North Atlantic (i.e., off of Canada).

Hurricanes can also strike the US coast as far north as New England. With global warming, the chance the the NE US coast will get hit by a hurricane is going up every year. In the future, what happened in NOLA could happen in Baltimore or Boston.

If you doubt this, check out the storm tracks for Hurricanes Maria:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/MARIA.shtml?

and Irene:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/IRENE.shtml?

If you never heard about them, that's because they were/are wandering around all over the North Atlantic. Irene petered out somewhere around Greenland.

[Stuckinthebush]

18. Nothing to really worry about

There will be others in the next two months that will be worrisome.

[graywarrior]

19. Plymouth State site

[pursuivant]

26. Not likely

Tropical Depression 16 will never get above the level of a Tropical Storm, and it looks like it will break up over S. Georgia.

That said, however, we still have about 7 more weeks of hurricane season. Anything could happen.