Tropical Depression 16 has become Tropical Storm Ophelia

[existentialist]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?ocean=atlantic&storm=Ophelia

Tropical Depression 16 has become Tropical Storm Ophelia, as of 2 AM EDT. A Tropical Storm warning is in effect for the east coast of Florida from north of Jupiter northward to Titusville, including Merritt Island, and for Grand Bahama, the Abacos and Bimini. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida east coast north of Titusville to Flagler Beach. Ophelia was centered near 27.9 north and 78.8 west or about 115 miles east-southeast of Cape Canaveral, FL. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph and the storm is moving north-northwest at 5 mph. Steering winds are expected to remain very light and as a result the system should stay off the east coast of Florida for the next day or two. Given persistent surface pressure falls, very warm water temperatures and decreasing wind shear, Ophelia should continue to strengthen, and if the system stays over water through Thursday it could become a category 1 hurricane. The main impact from this system will be heavy rain, mainly along the east coast of Florida, over the next few days. The depression combining with a strong ridge of high pressure across the northeastern United States will also result in strong northeast winds, high surf and rip currents along the east coast of Florida and the Southeast coast of the U.S. over the next few days. Later this week or over the coming weekend, this system could end up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico with high pressure expected to build to the north, turning the steering winds more out of the east resulting in a westward movement. Some computer model output is showing Ophelia moving west-northwest in the Gulf of Mexico and moving into southeast Louisiana next Monday night. Other computer models either show the system stalling off the northeast Florida coast or heading north, then northeast off the Carolina coast in the long term. So, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the future movement of this system and all interests along the southeast U.S. coast - and even the Gulf coast - should monitor the progress of Ophelia.

[Blue_In_AK]

1. Here we go again...

[ngGale]

2. NC may be next....

damn, damn, damn, our beautiful barrier islands! - :scared: :cry:

[NYC]

6. Stock up on water.

You can't rely on Homeland Security's FEMA.

[rucky]

3. Whoever named this one should be fired.

Poor taste, seeing as Ophelia of Hamlet fame drowned and all.

yes, I probably am being too sensitive.

[tkmorris]

4. No one knows where this thing is going

At the moment that's rather the problem. Different models show it doing everything from the much argued over trip west into the gulf, to heading northeast then possibly looping back around towards north Florida again. There is very little to steer it which is why it has been almost stationary for the last couple of days.

The worst case scenario is either the loop or an absolute stall. That would give her time to strengthen or perhaps get pushed to the gulf where strengthening would almost be assured assuming she survived the trip across the Florida peninsula. It's far too soon to worry overly much though, every year produces a few systems like this one. Katrina has us all on pins and needles I think.

[saigon68]

5. WOW I could do better with a blindfolded chimp and a dartboard

No wonder people don't believe forecasts.

[rppper]

7. there were tasty waves in daytona beach this morning....

6 to 10 foot breakers from daytona to ormond, just to the north....gusty winds at about 30mph....i'm a storm-o-phile....if it hits here i'll keep you posted....