STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 7 September

[ozymandius]

Wednesday September 7, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 136 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 261 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 325 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1382
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 2, 2005

Dow... 10,589.24 +141.87 (+1.36%)
Nasdaq... 2,166.86 +25.79 (+1.20%)
S&P 500... 1,233.39 +15.37 (+1.26%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.09% +0.06 (+1.39%)
Gold future... 448.60 +0.10 (+0.02%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif - WEEKLY CHARTS

-cut past charts-

Summary

Last week we said, "All major indices managed to close below support for the week, while most technical indicators remained deeply in negative territory. Consequently, the odds favor that the indices will make contact with the first downside targets listed on our table, which are only 1.25%-2% below current levels. The question is, will they stop there? More than likely, yes. Unless the market is about to collapse, the first downside targets ought to provide--at least--a temporary respite for the very simple reason that as it stands right now, the Volume McClellan Oscillators for the NDX, and the OEX are very close to the -100 level, indicating a deeply oversold condition, which usually acts as the "starter fluid" for a rally. In addition, the market has a historical tendency to rally during the week that precedes Labor Day, therefore, although market participants must be cognizant of the negative technical picture, they also have to be on alert for a rally, especially if they have profits to protect from existing short positions. If the market follows its historical pattern, then the most likely scenario would be a continuation of the decline into Tuesday, and then a reversal and a rally into the end of the week. In the absence of any exogenous event that would justify a sell-off, the real news would be if we get the opposite type of action, such as a rally during the first part of the week, and a sell-off going into the Labor Day weekend, because it would indicate a change in "character" induced by a change in investors' psychology. In bear markets, investors are more risk averse than in bull markets; thus, they have the tendency to buy early in the week and they book their profits at the end of the week because they do not feel comfortable holding positions over the weekend, especially during a long holiday weekend. The opposite holds true, in general, during bull markets. Consequently, if we get a sell-off going into the holiday weekend, the message to be derived from such action would be that market participants are becoming more risk averse, and less enamored with the equity markets."

(CURRENT) The indices followed their historical pattern declining into Tuesday, and then rallying to end the week with gains, despite some minor losses on Friday. From a technical point of view, we got a total "mixed bag." Most indicators are either a handful of points below, or, above their respective zero lines implying that the odds favoring either higher, or, lower prices are almost even, and thus, we can't dismiss either outcome.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.72 Change +0.15 (+0.17%)

Dollar - September Fed Rate Hike Still in Play as Greenspan Searches for Answers

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3292&Itemid=39

The first thing that traders did after coming back from their summer vacations was to send the dollar higher. As we said on Friday, the move last week in the EURUSD from 1.2175 to 1.2589 was both sharp and extensive – necessitating a period of consolidation. The heavy driving season is now behind us and we should see two or three months of respite before we hit the winter season, when oil and natural gas usage increases once again. The refineries in the Gulf State are beginning to recover with three of the twelve refineries that went offline restarting. Europe and Japan have pledged to send more oil this way. However, the pace at which the oil can be refined remains limited until we see the other seven refineries reopen. The price of oil has come off its high for now, helping the dollar recover some of its losses. In fact, traders breathed such a big sigh of relief that they sent the stock markets soaring, posting the biggest one-day gain in the Dow and the NASDAQ since July. However, whether respite really lasts two or three months remains to be seen. A sharp rise in the service sector ISM survey from 60.5 to 65.0 also injected some optimism into the markets, but it is important to keep in mind that the number was a snapshot of the service sector pre-Hurricane. The ISM surveys in general usually reflect activity through the third week of the month and in this case, Hurricane Katrina did not hit until the fourth week of August. There was also a good deal of chatter about John Berry’s article today predicting a rate hike on September 20th. We too said on Thursday that Greenspan will probably go ahead with a quarter point rate hike later this month. He will most likely spend the next few weeks gathering information to answer a few key questions – 1) How much have oil prices and Katrina impacted consumer spending? 2) How high will jobless claims rise? 3) Will oil prices continue to remain above $60 a barrel even following the aftermath of Katrina? - The November decision is really where the uncertainty lies now and it remains to be seen whether economic activity will show enough signs of rebounding by that time to warrant another quarter point rate hike to 4.00%.

...more...

Dollar Begins To Reassert Its Dominance Over Majors

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3296&Itemid=39

EUR/USD – Euro bulls began their retreat after failing to hold ground above the psychologically important 1.2500 figure with greenback longs hot on their trail. As dollar bulls begin to take back their territory, a move below the 1.2400 figure will most likely encounter first line of euro defenses at 1.2338, established by the 20-day SMA, with a break below most likely seeing the pair slide through 1.2300 and take on 1.2249, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.3477-1.1869 USD rally. A move toward the 1.2250 also should be a decisive for the greenback bulls as it would signal a further move to the downside due to the break below the trendline that dominated the price action since middle of July. Indicators are becoming mixed with momentum indicator and MACD both above the zero line, while Stochastic became overbought thus adding to possibility of a pullback.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen longs continued to battle the dollar over the psychologically important 110.00 figure as the price action remained on the side of the dollar longs. A retrace toward the 109.00 level will most likely find active greenback bids which will most likely push the pair back toward the 110.00 handle. A break above the 110.00, which is defended by the combination of the 38.2 Fib of the 104.19-113.68 USD rally and a 20-day SMA, which together provide the Japanese yen longs with strong defensive position. A break above the level of such magnitude will most likely see the pair dollar push higher toward the 111.06, a 50-day SMA and a gateway to the 2005 high at 113.68. Indicators support the yen longs with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while both oscillators are sloping downward toward the oversold line.

...more...

[54anickel]

16. HA! That second title is a real hoot!!!

Dollar Begins To Reassert Its Dominance Over Majors :spray:

[UpInArms]

28. Dollar pauses as US rate clues awaited

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-07T115412Z_01_FOR728737_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-MARKETS-FOREX-DC.XML

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar stabilised on Wednesday as investors sought clues on the U.S. interest rate outlook after the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina raised concerns about economic growth.

Some market participants say the dollar could retreat in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 20 given concerns the central bank might pause in its year-long campaign of raising rates.

Such expectations rose particularly after the OECD advised the Fed on Tuesday to ease the pace of interest rate hikes in the wake of Katrina.

The market will now take a close look at the Fed's Beige Book, which outlines national business conditions, and a speech by Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow later in the day.

"Much of the dollar's move is coming from uncertainty as to what is going to happen with the Fed. There is speculation the Fed can pause, or they will raise rates but release a fairly dovish statement, putting rate hikes after September in doubt," Johan Javeus, currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

...more...

[UpInArms]

67. Atlanta Fed's U.S. dollar index falls 1.2% in August

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38602.6296766319-841345856&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The Atlanta Federal Reserve's dollar index fell 1.2% in August and is 4.3% below its year-ago level, the bank said Wednesday. The index measures the dollar's value against 15 major currencies. The European subindex registered a 2.2% percent decline, while the Americas and Pacific subindexes each fell 1%. The Pacific-excluding-Japan index fell 0.8%.

[UpInArms]

3. Today's Report:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Sep 7	8:30 AM	Productivity-Rev.	Q2	-	2.2%	2.1%	2.2%	-

Also, the DOE and API will be releasing the petroleum inventories reports.

[UpInArms]

8. U.S. 2Q productivity revised lower to 1.8%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38602.3543361574-841309683&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The productivity of U.S. nonfarm businesses slowed in the second quarter, while labor costs shot sharply higher, the Labor Department said Wednesday in a revision to an earlier estimate. Productivity increased at a 1.8% annual rate in the quarter, down from 2.2% estimated a month ago. It's the slowest increase since the third quarter of 2004. Unit labor costs - a key indicator of inflationary pressures - increased at a 2.5% rate in the quarter and 4.2% in the past year. It's the fastest year-over-year increase in unit labor costs since the third quarter of 2000.

8:30am 09/07/05 U.S. 2Q MANUFACTURING PRODUCTIVITY RISES 3.6%

8:30am 09/07/05 U.S. 2Q NONFINANCIAL PRODUCTIVITY RISES 6.8%

8:30am 09/07/05 U.S. 2Q UNIT LABOR COSTS REVISED UP TO 2.5% VS 1.5% EXPECTED

8:30am 09/07/05 U.S. 2Q PRODUCTIVITY REVISED DOWN TO 1.8% VS. 2.1% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

10. more info:

US second-quarter productivity growth revised down

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-09-07T123053Z_01_N0660081_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-PRODUCTIVITY-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 7 (Reuters) - U.S. business productivity grew at a slower-than-expected 1.8 percent annual rate in the second quarter, a government report showed on Wednesday, while compensation gains caused unit labor costs to rise more quickly than first thought.

Wall Street analysts had expected non-farm business productivity, or worker output per hour, to be revised down to a 2.0 percent pace from the 2.2 percent clip initially reported, a slowdown from the first-quarter's 3.2 percent growth.

In fact, second-quarter output was revised down while hours worked were revised higher.

Unit labor costs -- a key gauge of inflation and profit pressure -- grew at a 2.5 percent pace, up from the 1.3 percent rate initially reported. Economists had expected a 1.4 percent gain. The previous quarter was revised down, to a 2.2 percent rate from 3.6 percent.

...more...

[AnneD]

49. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: :eyes: Another revision....DOWNWARD...I'm shocked,shocked to discover there is gambling in this establishment. Loved the toon, boy does it explain it all.
Meet one of those Nurses that was stuck at the hospital and self IV'd to keep going...We had such a laugh about it...it's a Nurse Thang (teased her about toting a foley bag around so she could work without a bathroom break----again, sick Nurse humour). We are trotting along here. Still alot of grief but we have alot of action too. Once again proof that American's can be greater than their leaders :grouphug:

[UpInArms]

40. DOE blathers but does not give inventories report

11:08am 09/07/05 CRUDE OIL PRICES TO RANGE FROM $67 TO $72/BARREL: DOE

11:06am 09/07/05 ENERGY DEPT. SEES UNCERTAIN OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY PRICES

11:06am 09/07/05 U.S. ENERGY DEPT. SEES ENERGY MARKET RECOVERED BY YEAR-END

[UpInArms]

41. DOE: gasoline $3 gal thru Sept - then ... wait for it ...

$2.57!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38602.4703254977-841323940&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. energy markets should recovery from the blow of Hurricane Katrina by the end of the year, even assuming the worst case, the Energy Department said Wednesday in its monthly short-term outlook. The agency provided three separate estimates, depending on how quickly energy production, refining and distribution facilities recover. Crude oil prices will likely average between $67 and $72 a barrel in September and less than $70 in 2006. Retail gasoline is expected to average about $3 a gallon in September and $2.57 a gallon in the third quarter. The government notes that the hurricane season is far from over.

[54anickel]

45. And we'll all be happy as clams at that price, now that we've adjusted

to the boiling water again. :eyes:

Notice they don't say what crude prices will be in the 3rd quarter, while they state a retail gas price for that time period.

Meanwhile the cat's outta the bag on the refineries....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1760219

[UpInArms]

47. also see my post #44

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1759901&mesg_id=1760582

[UpInArms]

64. Instead of Inventory Report, DOE gives 3 rosy scenarios

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEC4D95A5%2D37E5%2D48C1%2DA23D%2D566325A0A4E2%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. energy markets will likely recover from the impact of Hurricane Katrina by the end of the year, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday in its monthly short-term outlook.

Retail gas prices are likely to average $3 for September, the agency said.

In an unusual move, the Energy Department agency declined to give just one estimate of supply, demand and prices. Instead, the EIA provided three separate scenarios, representing a fast recovery, a medium recovery and a slow recovery.

Under all three scenarios, production and distribution of gasoline and natural gas would return to normal operations by December or soon after. Read the report.

Under the medium recovery scenario, all but 900 million barrels of daily refinery capacity would be expected to be restored by the end of September, down from a peak loss of 1.9 billion barrels a day.

The price of crude oil is expected to average about $63.46 per barrel in 2006 under all three scenarios, up about $7 a barrel from the August estimate.

...more...

When will the Gold-i-locks comparison come in? And this one is 'just right'?

[UpInArms]

61. Fed's Beige Book Report Out

Economy in good shape pre-Katrina: Fed Beige Book - so what - that is definitely pre-830 thinking :eyes: (How many times did we hear how our thinking is pre-911?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38602.5834747685-841339406&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy was in relatively good shape before Katrina made landfall on the Gulf Coast, the Fed's Beige Book survey of current economic conditions said Wednesday. Growth was widespread across the country, with only the New England region reporting mixed results. Energy prices were already higher across the country before the hurricane hit, but overall consumer price increases were modest, the survey said. Companies were having trouble passing these higher prices to consumers. The report of anecdotes collected by the 12 regional Fed banks is designed to help Fed policymakers at their upcoming meeting on Sept. 20 to set monetary policy for the next six weeks. This report will have limited value for the central bankers as it was based on information collected before Aug. 29, the day Katrina struck the Gulf Coast region.

2:00pm 09/07/05 FED REPORT SEES SOME SOFTENING IN HOME MARKET

2:00pm 09/07/05 FED REPORT SAYS FIRMS CAN'T PASS ENERGY COSTS TO CONSUMERS

2:00pm 09/07/05 FED REPORT SAW HIGHER ENERGY PRICES ACROSS COUNTRY

2:00pm 09/07/05 FED REPORT BASED ON INFORMATION BEFORE HURRICANE LANDFALL

2:00pm 09/07/05 FED BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMY IN GOOD SHAPE PRE-KATRINA

[UpInArms]

4. When it comes to layoffs at WDI, the stealthy approach really pays off

http://www.jimhillmedia.com/mb/articles/showarticle.php?ID=1634

excerpt:

What's that you say? You don't hear any mounting public outrage? Well ... I guess that means that the plan that Imagineering management hatched back in 2004 is actually working.

"What sort of plan?," you ask. To explain: The managers at Walt Disney Imagineering have grown tired with dealing with all the bad publicity that typically accompanies a big layoff at WDI. You know? The sort of staff cut that always follows the completion of a large-scale project ... like a new theme park, for example.

And given that 2005 was going to mark both the opening of Hong Kong Disneyland as well as the 50th anniversary of the original Disneyland ... Imagineering management felt that it was imperative that the press not associate the "Happiest Homecoming on Earth" with hundreds of WDI employees suddenly losing their jobs.

<snip>

What's that you say? You don't hear any mounting public outrage? Well ... I guess that means that the plan that Imagineering management hatched back in 2004 is actually working.

"What sort of plan?," you ask. To explain: The managers at Walt Disney Imagineering have grown tired with dealing with all the bad publicity that typically accompanies a big layoff at WDI. You know? The sort of staff cut that always follows the completion of a large-scale project ... like a new theme park, for example.

And given that 2005 was going to mark both the opening of Hong Kong Disneyland as well as the 50th anniversary of the original Disneyland ... Imagineering management felt that it was imperative that the press not associate the "Happiest Homecoming on Earth" with hundreds of WDI employees suddenly losing their jobs.



...more...

[UpInArms]

5. US chain stores flat on week as Katrina takes bite

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050907:MTFH53998_2005-09-07_11-50-00_NAT001782:1

NEW YORK, Sept 7 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store retail sales were flat in the latest week as the effects of Hurricane Katrina began to be felt, a report said on Wednesday.

Sales were flat in the week to Sept. 3 after dipping 0.3 percent in the prior week, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in a joint report.

Compared with the same week a year ago, sales were up 3.8 percent, after a 3.9 percent increase in the prior week.

"The results for this past week reflect the fallout of Hurricane Katrina as national sales were held back by about one percentage point as stores were closed in the path of the hurricane," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist and director of research.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. China Data Watch-China seen posting huge trade surplus

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-07T061250Z_01_PEK315786_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CHINA.XML

BEIJING, Sept 7 (Reuters) - China is thought to have racked
up another huge trade surplus in August as exports powered
ahead, unfazed by textile spats with Europe and the United
States and July's currency revaluation.

Analysts expect August data due to be released this week
and next to show an economy in good health, with robust
industrial expansion, low inflation and strong consumer
spending.

"The growth momentum will not slow down significantly in
the second half of the year because exports have played a
larger role in driving growth this year," said Qin Jun, an
analyst with Guotai Junan Securities in Shanghai.

The strong exports have prompted some analysts to consider
ratcheting up their forecasts for the overall economy.

"It looks like on current settings, the surplus is now
going to go above $100 billion for the year, which will force
us to raise our full-year GDP forecast," said Tim Condon, an
economist with ING in Singapore.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. S&P says still nervous about GM, Ford ratings

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-07T101334Z_01_L07535771_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-RATINGS-AUTOS-UPDATE-1.XML

LONDON, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's analysts laid the foundations for further rating downgrades on U.S. automakers General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday, saying they remained "nervous" about the current ratings.

"We are still nervous about our ratings, even at the reduced levels," Scott Sprinzen, a managing director at the rating agency, said at a briefing in London.

S&P lowered the ratings on GM and Ford to "junk" status in May, sending shockwaves through the credit markets as complex trading strategies by hedge funds came unstuck.

The agency rates GM at BB, two notches below investment grade, and Ford at BB+, one notch below. Both ratings have a negative outlook, signalling they could fall over the next 18 months.

<snip>

The analysts cited high energy prices, an increased chance of a U.S. recession following Hurricane Katrina, the companies' poor product mix and a decline in sales of sport utility vehicles as some of the reasons for their concerns.

...more...

[54anickel]

9. Consumer cash flow

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=46046

Summary

This paper analyzes the sources and uses of household cash flow. We use the basic corporate cash flow statement format to identify operating, investing, and financing cash flow. In order to meet current financing and investment requirements, we discover that households need to generate new cash equal to at least 13% of GDP every year.

Prior to 1993, the sources of household cash flow were split about 55% from income and 45% from new debt. Beginning in 1993, new debt increasingly became the source of cash flow. In 2005, new debt of about 12% of GDP should provide nearly 86% of household cash flow.

We apply the standard corporate cash flow statement model to U.S. households. Using this format, we discover that U.S. households are now limited to one basic source of cash flow: new debt. Simply put, the access to new debt is the only thing that matters in analyzing the ability of U.S. households to spend or invest money.

snip to the chart that says it all>



snip>

The only way that we can envision this would be a managed deflation transferring corporate profits to households through price reductions on goods and services. Though this would lower profits appreciably, it would also enable the economy to cut household debt financing needs to reasonable levels.

Other than our tantalizing possibility, we were unable to identify any reasonable path of reducing the growth of household debt. The sources and uses of cash flow indicate that households are completely dependent on access to new debt.

more...

[54anickel]

11. Katrina's world

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/09/06/news/edbowring.php#

snip>

Another silver lining, a win-win for the world and the United States, would be a storm-driven conversion of U.S. political leaders to the interrelated goals of reducing both oil dependence and greenhouse gas emissions. Imagine the beneficial catalytic impact the United States would have if it was the leader, not the laggard, in the push for cleaner energy.

While there could be some positive outcomes for the rest of the world, some less desirable ones may emerge. Katrina has exposed the deep divide between America's haves and have-nots. Bridging that gap is important for the United States, but doing so may carry with it the danger of a surge of protectionism on the grounds that low-skilled, low-paid workers have suffered from trade liberalization, despite its overall economic benefits.

A second danger is that a Bush administration badly wounded by its failure to respond swiftly to Katrina, as well as by ongoing failure in Iraq, will turn to economic nationalism, and China-bashing in particular, to recoup political ground or avoid being outflanked by the Democrats. Could the unilateralism evident in U.S. foreign policy after 9/11 be repeated in the economic sphere in Katrina's wake?

Alternatively, the hurricane may bring about a reorientation of U.S. priorities away from global concerns - and spending - toward fixing infrastructure and other problems on the home front. That need not necessarily be negative for a world that has grown weary of perceived U.S. arrogance and overstretch. But at the very least it will require an adjustment by America's allies and could lead to destabilization in parts of the world that implicitly rely on the U.S. presence for peace.

The view of all this from Main Street America may be very different. But from across the Pacific, it seems likely that Katrina could be much more than a passing tragedy. Its effects on the world as well as America may be profound and may present as many opportunities as problems for the future. The world needs to be prepared.

more...

[54anickel]

13. Katrina and the Waves

The giant waves Hurricane Katrina has sent through the global financial markets - like roads less traveled – will make all the difference for the remainder of 2005.

http://www.fallstreet.com/sept0605.php

Energy prices are near record highs, the yield curve recently inverted (2Y vs. 3Y), and the Federal Reserve Board may be done tightening sooner rather than later. Welcome to the aftermath of Katrina: the devastating Hurricane that left death, human suffering, and chaotic financial markets in its path.

Notwithstanding how important energy prices and interest rates are to the US and credit drenched global economy, one of the biggest topics following Katrina is the price of gold. After dropping early last week the price of gold zoomed ahead by more than $12 an ounce for the three days ended last Friday (October contract). The culprit behind gold’s resurgence was the falling dollar.

It goes without saying that Katrina has instigated a period of uncertainty. But whether not rising energy prices will cause a recession or falling US interest rates will add fuel to the already hot housing market is unknown. What is known is that any further rally in gold – to levels not seen in 16+years – could quickly act to restore the dollar crisis fears that were running amuck in late 2004.

Katrina Not Found In Any Textbook

While Northern Trust Director of Economic Research, Paul Kasriel, is correct in that ‘Katrina Had No Silver Lining’, Mr. Kasriel’s intellectually rigid conclusions fail to grasp how important Katrina could be on an international scale. Moreover, what Mr. Kasriel ignores when he calmly states that because of Katrina ‘There will be a change in the composition of spending, not in its total’, is that a major disaster can ignite an incredible chain of events. As an example, 9/11 will suffice:

Following 9/11 stocks crashed, the Fed quickened its pace of interest rate cuts, companies introduced new incentives to try and spur sales, and consumers went from saving more of their money (in June, July, August, and September 2001) to spending all of their money and then some in October 2001. In other words, 9/11 impacted financial markets, policy decisions, and business/consumer spending/confidence trends.

Whether or not Katrina proves to be the type of disaster that stalls but then kick starts the US economy* remains to be seen. Regardless, with energy prices near record highs, bond prices and Philadelphia Fed boss, Santomero, suggesting that the Fed may soon end its campaign of measured rate increases, and President Bush having released oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, it is clear that Katrina has already had a deep impact on the financial markets and policy decisions.

In short, from a macro perspective Katrina is not about the destruction of ‘real wealth’ and the ‘postponement of current consumption’ on a localized scale. Rather, Katrina is all about setting into motion a chain of events that will lead to gains or losses in ‘paper wealth’ and the threat that energy expenditures will cannibalize consumption on a global scale. Unfortunately, given that the effects of Katrina have the potential to initiate self-fulfilling prophesies (i.e. as businesses/consumers start to think that a slowdown is near this alone brings about a slowdown), no textbook can answer what total impact Katrina will have until after the fact.

more...

[UpInArms]

12. Morgan Stanley cuts US 2005 and 2006 GDP

8:50am 09/07/05 MORGAN STANLEY CUTS '06 U.S. GDP GROWTH FORECAST TO 3.3%

8:50am 09/07/05 MORGAN STANLEY CUTS '05 U.S. GDP GROWTH FORECAST TO 3.5%

adding blurb on edit:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38602.3774505093-841312254&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley (MWD) said that it has cut its global GDP growth forecast for 2006 to 3.7% from 4.1%, largely to reflect a 40% rise in its baseline crude-oil price trajectory for 2006, to $64 a barrel from $45 a barrel. The GDP cuts are heavily concentrated in the U.S., with 2005 U.S. GDP growth now forecast at 3.5%, from a previous estimate of 3.8%, and 2006 U.S. growth seen at 3.3% from 4%. "We have made a relatively minor cuts elsewhere in this U.S.-centric world," the bank noted.

[54anickel]

14. Vulture Vulnerability

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/wiegand/wiegand090605.html

The Ides of September is officially on the 13th. This year the date is moved to the15th when 16 of the world’s largest derivative-writing banks will be represented at a secret New York City locked-down meeting with Federal Reserve and Treasury Department officials. We think they had better have some paramedics on standby as the real meaning of naked fear hangs over that boardroom. The chickens are coming home to roost and there are some very big vultures sitting on the credenza. Financial trip wires cannot reproduce themselves, but when that meeting is over, their potential losses will be too high to imagine. On September 20, the Federal Reserve has a regular meeting. Both of these sessions will have very serious and ominous tones.

For those of us analysts who read market tracks, signs, and indicators, the red lights have been flashing for months. Meanwhile the investor-Sheeple blithely walk toward the cliff’s edge, conscious of nothing. Unconscious of anything might be more appropriate. Bertrand Russell said, “The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.” Financial shenanigans and tricks have reached new highs since the 2000 market bust. We wonder how many new ones are left and just how they will be applied. Does the head magician, the Greenman, have any more rabbits in his hat? What do you do in the face of cascading failing derivatives throughout the world while cascading waters shut down one of the largest and most critical shipping ports in the United States? These will be two topics at that September meeting.

snip>

Recovery Time Line for the Recovery of New Orleans

Even though the worst-case scenario storm track for Katrina was off by about 20 miles, New Orleans is basically dead for a very long time. The city has to be completely evacuated and order restored. Refugees are being taken away in buses to Baton Rouge and, most, to Houston, Texas. They have to fix the beaches and the levees first, and that may take days to weeks. Then the pumps have to be repaired to move water out of the city of New Orleans “bowl,” taking again more days and weeks. Once the pumps are fully operational they can only remove the water level one foot per day. It takes up to another 20 days for this removal process. Only at that point, can heavy equipment enter to repair the electrical grid, water, sewer, and gas networks, taking another three to four months. All of this initial stuff must be completed in sequence. It cannot be done simultaneously. Only then, can humans actually return to the city to begin the real cleanup and start the rebuilding process. My estimate, based upon optimistic news reports and forecasts, is that it will be at least one year before the city is fully habitable and functioning as an operating city. It may take New Orleans a decade before it can be rebuilt to anything near its former glory. This time line is possible only if no other natural disasters like hurricanes, tornadoes, windstorms, a tsunami, or some manmade-caused problem hits them during the recovery-rebuilding process. Fat chance of that, since O’Flanagan’s corollary to Murphy’s Law will most certainly apply. By comparison, Murphy was an optimist. The National Weather Service reported that a new hurricane, Lee, is forming as we speak, and the month of September is the worst of all for these storms.

Eisenhower was a great general but always knew plans can go awry with nasty, unforeseen surprises. This storm event has been feared for 40 years. Its aftermath was predicted. What was not predicted was the overwhelming severity of the flooding and the perfectly wrong timing as it hit just as global energy was going critical. Here is why we are in real trouble: This from Richard Berner of Morgan Stanley as reported in the WSJ: “This region accounts for 30% of America’s oil production and 20% of the natural gas production. Ten percent of all USA refineries are in the Gulf and of the 14 refineries nine are shut down. Without power they cannot run and some are flooded.” Trader Tracks says we now have permanently higher unleaded gas prices of $3.50 to $5.00 per gallon for the foreseeable future. Crude oil prices will be high but not critical. Gasoline, heating oil, aviation fuel, and diesel could go to rationing within a few weeks. It takes years to build a refinery, and we are short several right now. Exxon has eight new refineries planned and budgeted. When do they open and begin delivering fuel?

We say the earliest for the first one might be 2008. Trader Tracks’ forecast for April 2006 unleaded gasoline is $3.07 wholesale on the futures. Add on taxes and we are heading for $5.00 per gallon. On September 1, the October 2005 futures contract is $2.43, up 17 cents for this morning. Platt’s reported today that European traders are quickly taking advantage of the problem by buying as much refined product as possible in expectation that the USA will need to re-buy at higher prices. Trader Tracks reported some time ago that onethird of all refined unleaded gasoline is tankered into the USA, FULLY REFINED, due to a shortage of capacity in the states. In our view they will make a killing. The U.S. Government has offered to release crude from the Strategic Reserve and up to eight refiners are showing an interest. Who knows what they will have to pay, but it might be cheaper than the open market, considering all the problems.

more...

[UpInArms]

15. pre-opening blather

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. Futures trading has held steady since the release of Q2 productivity data, continuing to point towards a slightly lower start for the cash market... Likewise, the Treasury market has remained relatively still, with the 10-year note down five ticks and yielding 4.12%... Both markets will keep an eye on the Fed's Beige Book report, due out at 2:00 ET...

8:36AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. Q2 productivity was revised to +1.8% (consensus +2.1%) from a prior read of +2.2%; meanwhile, labor costs were revised up to +2.5% from +1.3%... While the latter revision could pique some inflation concerns, the Treasury market hasn't seemed too bothered by it as the 10-yr note (-3/32 at 4.11%) is little changed since the report was released... Futures took a modest dip following the data and now point to a modestly lower open for the cash market

8:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. As suggested by futures trading, the cash market is poised for a flat to modestly lower start... The lack of conviction at the moment isn't entirely surprising as the market is in a wait-and-see mode following yesterday's broad-based rally... The revision to Q2 productivity data is due to hit the wires at 8:30 ET. Economists expect the number to be revised to 2.1%, down slightly from the 2.2% initial read...

[UpInArms]

17. Spectrum (formerly Rayovac) cuts forecast on weak sales

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8E825043%2DD889%2D4F7A%2DBC3F%2D68664FCFDDA2%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares in Spectrum Brands Inc. fell sharply Wednesday after the consumer goods company slashed its fourth-quarter profit target, blaming slack demand for batteries, insect repellant and pet supplies, as well as rising oil and natural gas prices.

<snip>

Atlanta-based Spectrum, whose brands include Rayovac batteries, Tetra fish food and Cutter insect repellant, said battery sales came in below expectations in Europe, and will decline in North America, despite a slight boost in sales in areas hit by Hurricane Katrina. Late summer lawn and garden sales in North America were disappointing, especially for insect repellants, the company added, while global sales of pet supplies slowed versus prior periods.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. CBO's forecast regarding Katrina's Impact

9:42am 09/07/05 CBO: KATRINA'S IMPACT TO BE 'SIGNIFICANT, NOT OVERWHELMING'

9:41am 09/07/05 KATRINA TO CUT U.S. GDP BY 1/2% TO 1% IN SECOND HALF: CBO

9:42am 09/07/05 KATRINA TO REDUCE EMPLOYMENT BY 400,000 THIS YEAR: CBO

[Roland99]

20. But...but...but...

Baghdad Ben said it would be a hiccup.

[UpInArms]

22. Baghdad Ben lives in a cave - or is it a "spider hole"?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38602.4100105324-841316126&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The economic impact of Hurricane Katrina is likely to be "significant but not overwhelming," the Congressional Budget Office said. The storm could damp real gross domestic product by 0.5 to 1 percentage point in the second half and reduce employment by 400,000, the CBO said. September payrolls could decline by 500,000 to 1 million. Payments on federal flood insurance could exceed reserves. "Economic growth and employment are likely to rebound during the first half of 2006 as rebuilding accelerates," the nonpartisan agency said.

[UpInArms]

19. 9:47 numbers (lots of spiky movements)

Dow 10,592.03 +2.79 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,163.43 -3.43 (-0.16%)
S&P 500 1,232.65 -0.74 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.112 +0.27 (+0.66%)

NYSE Volume 172,805,000
Nasdaq Volume 125,008,000

adding blather on edit:

9:45AM: As futures trading had foreshadowed, the cash market opened modestly lower... Despite a strong list of analyst upgrades, which includes McDonald's (MCD 33.27 +0.61) to Outperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns, JP Morgan (JPM 34.79 +0.22) to Outperform from Market Perform at Piper Jaffray, and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 27.55 +0.30) to Buy from Neutral at UBS, along with an extension of crude's pullback (-$0.19 at 65.77/bbl), early trading reflects a relatively lackluster sentiment on the heels of yesterday's broad-based rally...

Separately, Altera's (ALTR 20.59 -1.21) 5.6% dive, a result of its slashed gross margin forecast is a negative focal point that has held back the SOX Index (-0.52%) in the early-going...

[UpInArms]

21. Gold futures climb over $1 in morning trade

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38602.4079663542-841315892&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold is up $1.10 at $449.70 an ounce in morning dealings after touching an intraday high of $450.10. Prices posted gains in the last four-straight sessions and they're trading at their highest levels in about three weeks. "It would seem like the gold market is attempting to regain the $450 level, but we are not sure that a slight tightening in supply and minimal increases in physical demand interest are significant enough to propel prices sharply higher," said Nell Sloane, an analyst at NSFutures.com in daily commentary.

[UpInArms]

23. National Weather Service outsources to Raytheon

10:06am 09/07/05 RAYTHEON GETS $300M, 5-YEAR NATL WEATHER SERVICE CONTRACT

adding blurb on edit:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38602.4351350579-841319246&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Raytheon Co. (RTN) said Wednesday it obtained a five-year contract from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service to provide operations and maintenance for the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System. The Waltham, Mass., company said it estaimtes the value of the contract at $300 million if all options are exercised. Shares of Ratheon last traded down 12 cents at $39.37.

[54anickel]

31. Is this where they start charging for NOAA data? I remember reading

a post about that recently. I'll see if I can find something again.

[54anickel]

37. Will bill darken weather sites?

Critics say the bill would force a government agency to disseminate much of its data only to private companies.

http://www.sptimes.com/2005/08/08/State/Will_bill_darken_weat.shtml

snip>

Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., the Senate's third-ranking Republican, introduced a bill in April titled the National Weather Services Duties Act of 2005. According to the bill's wording, it would "clarify the duties and responsibilities" of NOAA and the NWS, and "protect life and property."

Santorum has said the bill's intention is to keep NOAA from competing with private companies. The main task of the weather service, he said, is to provide public alerts for emergency conditions such as tornadoes and severe weather, which the bill would require the agency to continue.

But critics say the bill would force NOAA to disseminate much of its data, which is collected at taxpayer expense, only to private companies. The result, they say, would be that the government's ad-free Web sites would go dark.

As proof, they point to a key sentence in the bill involving the cabinet post that oversees NOAA:

"The Secretary of Commerce shall not provide, or assist other entities in providing, a product or service that is or could be provided by the private sector."

more...

[AnneD]

72. What happened to the concept

of public trust?

[ozymandius]

24. vacillating at the waterline

10:07
Dow 10,584.06 -5.18 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,160.24 -6.62 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,231.97 -1.42 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 41.14 +0.29 (+0.71%)
NYSE Volume 308,085,000
Nasdaq Volume 226,350,000

10:00AM: A cautious start for the equity market, which appears to be cooling its jets for the time being after Tuesday's broad-based rally... Of the four economic sectors currently trading in positive territory, the Materials sector (+0.5%) is faring the best, although a lack of concerted leadership overall reflects the absence of real conviction in the early dealings ... Of the six sectors trending negative, the Telecommunications sector (-0.7%) is the worst performer followed by Technology (-0.4%)...

The combined weakness of those two sectors helps explain the Nasdaq's laggard status at this juncture..NYSE Adv/Dec 1029/1409, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 966/1397

[Tace]

25. MOGAMBO GURU: The Amount Of Corruption Is Off The Charts

World News Trust

This week I am beside myself with outrage at everything. Seeing me standing there beside myself like that, I am captivated by my own snarling, supercilious insolence, vaguely reminiscent of Marlon Brando in "The Wild One", with a cigarette hanging out of the corner of my mouth, looking so cool, and how I am the original Rebel Without a Cause and, I might add, an all-around seriously bad dude who drives the chicks wild. My reverie is abruptly broken when my wife yells out, "Are you smoking a cigarette out there, you idiot moron?" I quickly throw the butt down, stomp it out, and yell back "No! Now just shut up and leave me alone, ya old bag!"

But this is not about my awesome Mogambo powers of imagination (AMPOI), but about how I am outraged, mostly by how the damned Federal Reserve increased Total Fed Credit by $6.4 billion last week! Note the exclamation point, which I cleverly use to indicate emphasis for some reason, mostly because I am, as I said, outraged.

Today I will be taking us on a little field trip, away from the hallowed halls of Mogambo Extreme University (MEU). So follow along in your Mogambo Guidebook Of Monetary Insanity (MGOMI) as we take you to where credit is created in that wonderful, magical place in Central Bank Fairy Tale Land. This spooky place is where the little magic fairies at the Federal Reserve come out and dance by the light of the moon, sit on toadstools, and literally increase the amount of potential credit in the banking system by waving a magic wand, or sacrificing babies, or pressing a button, or something. And this sudden supply of fresh credit drives down the interest rate as it swamps instantaneous demand for credit. Then, the next thing you know, total debt is up as people rush to borrow this new, cheap credit. Not surprisingly, all this increased demand for credit did NOT increase the interest rate, which you would expect, as the supply of credit expanded beforehand! And even better, in doing so- like magic! -borrowers create money at the very instant- poof! -that they sign the loan papers!

Standing up, groaning and moaning, to take a look out of the window at the banks, we see that, sure enough, the banks suddenly had another $22 billion in new loans and leases on their books last week. Peeking around the corner at the money supply, we see that the money supply blipped- blip! -up, too. And lookie there! Total debt went- blip! -up, too!

(more)

http://worldnewstrust.org/modules/AMS/article.php?storyid=949

[UpInArms]

26. 10:09 EST numbers (all red) and blather (inane)

Dow 10,579.37 -9.87 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,159.86 -7.00 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,231.79 -1.60 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.115 +0.30 (+0.73%)

NYSE Volume 313,752,000
Nasdaq Volume 229,850,00

10:00AM: A cautious start for the equity market, which appears to be cooling its jets for the time being after Tuesday's broad-based rally... Of the four economic sectors currently trading in positive territory, the Materials sector (+0.5%) is faring the best, although a lack of concerted leadership overall reflects the absence of real conviction in the early dealings ... Of the six sectors trending negative, the Telecommunications sector (-0.7%) is the worst performer followed by Technology (-0.4%)...

The combined weakness of those two sectors helps explain the Nasdaq's laggard status at this juncture..NYSE Adv/Dec 1029/1409, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 966/1397

[UpInArms]

27. Check Kiting Continues: Fed adds $10.5 bln reserves via overnight repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-07T140728Z_01_N07163806_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 7 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it added $10.5 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements at a stop-out rate of 3.46 percent.

Tuesday's overnight repos cleared at a stop-out rate, the lowest rate accepted, of 3.50 percent.

The Fed accepted $9.944 billion in Treasuries as collateral and 556 million in agency debt as collateral for Wednesday's overnight repos, it said.

Fed funds last traded at 3.5 percent, the Fed's target for the rate on overnight loans between banks.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

:wtf:

[UpInArms]

29. Fed adds permanent bank reserves via coupon pass

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-07T144020Z_01_N07167886_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-COUPONPASS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 7 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it added permanent bank reserves by buying U.S. Treasury coupons maturing between Nov. 15, 2008 and May 15, 2009.

All Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are excluded, Details of the coupon pass are available on the New York Fed's Web site: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/permanent.html

Fed funds last traded at 3.50 percent, the Fed's target for the rate on overnight loans between banks.

from www.newyorkfed.org/markets/permanent.html

Permanent Open Market Operations

Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio.

Coupon Pass - 9/7/2005

Release: 10:30 am
Close: 11:00 am
Delivery: 9/08/05
Range: 11/15/08 - 5/15/09

Exclusions:

All TIIS

[54anickel]

52. Wonder if this somehow relates to the debit cards they're gonna be

handing out? Be interesting to know which banks got the contract as well.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1760601

[UpInArms]

69. Net $191 mln U.S. securities stripped in August

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-07T192708Z_01_WBT003782_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-TREASURY-STRIPS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday said a net $191 million of government securities were stripped in August, compared with $61 million stripped in July.

Strips, or Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities, are created by separating the interest coupon from the principal payment. The coupon and principal can also be rejoined, or reconstituted.

The Treasury said $3.097 trillion in securities were eligible for stripping in August. Of the total, $177.06 billion were held in stripped form on Aug. 31, compared with $176.87 billion on July 31.

[54anickel]

75. I don't understand what's going on here with Treasuries, but I'm not

liking the sounds of it all. :wtf: is up?

[UpInArms]

30. Commentary: As country matures, so do its problems

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7E6E6EAB%2DA220%2D4256%2DB838%2D4D81C6B47EEF%7D&siteid=mktw

SANTA MONICA, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- High gas prices, expensive housing, soldiers bearing arms on street corners.

These things are commonplace in Europe, in countries that have long-tenured populations. These things are shocking when associated with the US, the heretofore young pup of nation-states. Alas, the U.S is beginning to mature, and the social as well as economic ills found elsewhere are now here.

Gas is topping $3 per gallon, putting us nearer what Europeans are used to paying: between $4 and $7 per gallon. (Gas prices have always been higher overseas because of higher taxes on fuel.)

Housing too is being priced out of proportion to income, as is curiously common abroad; a two- bedroom apartment rental in New York City (about $3,500) now exceeds the cost of a similar rental in London (about $3,000), according to Mercer Human Resource Consulting's global cost of living index.

<snip>

But we're showing signs of aging, and of slowing down. Record U.S. levels of debt are a drag on our performance in the world markets. We're waging wars on foreign soil and battling domestic disasters. The large band of baby boomers that marched us into the technology and information age is nearing retirement age.

<snip>

We must change the way we deal and are dealt with, otherwise one of these days a hard knock is going to send us down for the count.

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. United Airlines files reorganization plan - stockholders lose all value

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-07T140935Z_01_N07155751_RTRIDST_0_AIRLINES-UNITED-UPDATE-1.XML

CHICAGO, Sept 7 (Reuters) - UAL Corp.'s (UALAQ.OB: Quote, Profile, Research) United Airlines on Wednesday filed a reorganization plan with the federal bankruptcy court, a move that initiates the emergence of the No. 2 U.S. carrier from Chapter 11 protection after more than 2-1/2 years.

United has said it aims to exit bankruptcy late this year or early next.

The Elk Grove Village, Illinois-based carrier has said it has received proposals for up to $3 billion dollars in exit financing, above the $2.5 billion the carrier had requested.

The airline industry has been battered by soaring fuel costs, weak revenue and competition from low-cost carriers. The price of oil futures notched a record high of $70.65 last week.

10:49am 09/07/05 UAL CORP. CONSIDERS $500 MLN RIGHTS OFFERING IN NEW STOCK

10:48am 09/07/05 UAL CORP. EXPECTS $2.5 BLN IN DEBT FOR EXIT FINANCING

10:48am 09/07/05 UAL CORP. COMMON STOCK TO BE CANCELLED AFTER BANKRUPTCY EXIT

10:46am 09/07/05 UAL CORP. FILES REORGANIZATION PLAN WITH BANKRUPTCY COURT

10:47am 09/07/05 UAL CORP. AIMS TO EXIT BANKRUPTCY 'EARLY NEXT YEAR'

[UpInArms]

33. Crude lifts oil and gas stocks (crude now at $66.25)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38602.4540537731-841321702&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Oil and gas stocks rallied Wednesday on the back of a climb in energy futures, as traders eyed the approach of Tropical Storm Ophelia. October crude rose 29 cents to $66.25 a barrel. The Amex Oil Index ($XOI) added 0.8% and the Amex Natural Gas Index ($XNG) and the Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX) each rose 0.6%.

[UpInArms]

44. Refiners' Merger Good for Business, Not Consumers

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/06/AR2005090601818.html

Last week, as supply shortages sent the price of a gallon of gasoline as high as $6 in some markets, federal officials charged with protecting consumers quietly approved yet another oil industry merger, this one creating the nation's largest oil refiner.

Because of the rush of Katrina news, the merger earned hardly a mention in the general press. And yet by giving its blessing to Valero's $8 billion purchase of Premcor, the Federal Trade Commission not only reinforced its reputation as a patsy for the energy industry but demonstrated a stunning lack of political sensitivity.

Although the FTC and its staff never seem to make the link between industry consolidation, rising energy prices and record profits, Wall Street investors surely can. Over the past year, shares in Valero are up 226 percent, which, as the Financial Times pointed out last week, makes Google (only 186 percent) look like a laggard.

Listen to what Valero's chief executive, Bill Greehey, had to say Thursday in announcing that the deal had closed: "We are in a new era for refining where I believe you will continue to see higher highs and higher lows for both product margins and sour crude discounts. And now, with 18 refineries, no one is better positioned to benefit from this than Valero."

<snip>

Here's the situation, as far as I can make it out. Refineries in the United States produce about 18 million barrels of refined product a day for an economy that consumes about 21 million. A completely new refinery hasn't been built in this country in nearly 40 years. And although Valero and others have spent $47 billion over the past decade to expand existing capacity by 13 percent, demand has grown even faster.

The reason that supply has not kept up in this industry, as in others, is simple: The industry makes more money that way. And one way the industry is better able to enforce this gentleman's agreement against investing too heavily in new capacity is by reducing the number of players and making entry into the industry even more difficult than it is already.

...more...

[54anickel]

54. Good to see this finally getting some attention, though I think it's a

bit late. It's been going on for decades, just more brazenly and easily under the Big Oil Adminstration.

[UpInArms]

63. Energy Dept: 6 refineries out, 4 likely down for "months"

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38602.5979334606-841341489&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Six U.S. refineries ravaged by Hurricane Katrina remain down on Wednesday and at least four of these facilities could be out of operation "for months," Energy Information Administration chief Guy Caruso told a House panel on Wednesday. EIA is the statistical arm of the Energy Department. Those refinieres still out "will probably take longer" to restore, Energy Undersecretary David Garman told the House Energy and Commerce Committee. The Energy Department expects one of the six refineries to be fully operational by the end of Wednesday and another to take up to two weeks, according to an assesment released Wednesday.

[54anickel]

34. U.S. Lawmakers Urge Fed to Hold Interest Rates Steady Sept. 20

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aYmg9VZrwmZw&refer=us

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. lawmakers from both parties are urging the Federal Reserve to forgo raising interest rates at its Sept. 20 meeting to help consumers and businesses recover from the destruction of Hurricane Katrina.

``The economy's doing well,'' said Senator Orrin Hatch, a Utah Republican. ``There's no reason to raise interest rates at this point.''

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley, an Iowa Republican, said in an interview yesterday that a pause in the Fed's cycle of rate increases ``would probably bring some confidence to people that are concerned about the overall economy'' following Hurricane Katrina.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has faced political pressure over rates before; in 1992, then-Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady criticized the Fed for not lowering interest rates fast enough. Gregory Valliere, chief political strategist at Stanford Washington Research Group in Washington, said such complaints usually have ``absolutely no impact on the Fed.''

That view may not hold this time, he said in an interview. ``You have to concede that the sheer magnitude of the human misery in the Gulf may make them reluctant to hike rates, because it would appear almost mean-spirited,'' he said.

Economists believe the Fed will probably raise rates again this month. ``There's no doubt there's political pressure on the Fed to do nothing on September 20th,'' said John Ryding, chief U.S. economist for Bear Stearns & Co. in New York, in an interview yesterday. The central bank will not be swayed, he said. ``The Fed will allow economics to overrule the politics of the situation.'' :spray:

more...

[UpInArms]

36. isn't it interesting that everyone (even the myopic of the congress)

knows that Meanspin has no connection with the realities on the ground in this country?

"Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead!" shouts the Has-Been Partisan Hack.

[54anickel]

39. Idiot 'n Thief is in trouble in the polls, they may play this out for all

it's worth. He ain't called a partisan hack for nothin'.

[UpInArms]

35. 11:02 EST numbers (all better) and blather

Dow 10,602.21 +12.97 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,167.10 +0.24 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,234.10 +0.71 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.125 +0.40 (+0.98%)

NYSE Volume 613,273,000
Nasdaq Volume 439,679,000

11:00 The major averages continue to vascillate around the unchanged mark... The Healthcare sector (+0.43%) is a pocket of relative strength due largely to select gains in the healthcare services (+1.74%) and pharmaceutical (+0.74%) groups... The former industry has outperformed throughout the year, up 21.4%, and lags behind only managed healthcare (+29.5%) and healthcare suppliers (+24.4%) as the best-performing area in the Healthcare sector... Today, MedCo Health Solutions (MHS 52.75 +2.57), which saw Lehman Bros. reiterate its Overweight rating, is faring particularly well and extending support to the S&P... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1305/1616. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1126/1577.

10:30 The stock market holds its place just under the flat line.. Helping to drive the Materials sector's early rise, the steel group (+2.6%) has emerged an area of relative strength... An article in the Wall Street Journal suggested that steel prices may rise up to 20% in the coming months due to higher demand as Katrina-induced flooding has limited the supply and distribution of raw materials... United States Steel (X 45.13 +1.36) and Nucor (NUE 59.01 +1.36) were specifically highlighted; effective September 1, the steel giants hiked prices approximately 20% and are poised for additional profit in the hurricane's wake... The Energy sector (+0.82%), meanwhile, has reassumed the leadership role it had relinquished on account of crude's pullback over the last few sessions. The commodity is back on the uptick now, currently +$0.29 at $66.25/bbl. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1029/1409. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 966/1397.

[ozymandius]

38. Productivity Growth Slows, Labor Costs Up

WASHINGTON - Growth in Americans' productivity slowed in the spring while labor costs edged up, developments that raise concerns about inflation pressures down the road.

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that productivity — the amount of output per hour of work — increased at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the April -June quarter, down from a 3.2 percent increase in the first three months of the year and the slowest increase since the summer of 2004.

Labor costs, meanwhile, rose at 2.5 percent rate in the spring, slightly higher than the 2.2 percent rate of increase in the first three months of the year. The Federal Reserve is closely watching the performance of labor costs for any hints that higher wages are making inflation pressures worse.

more

[UpInArms]

42. Enron Defendants (Lay and Skilling) Cry Foul

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/06/AR2005090601856.html

Defense lawyers for former Enron Corp. executives Kenneth L. Lay and Jeffrey K. Skilling have complained for years about the government's hard-nosed tactics in pursuit of their clients.

Now they are hoping for support from an unlikely source: the federal judge overseeing next year's fraud trial against the two.

<snip>

A grand jury continues to investigate misconduct at Enron, and prosecutors have said in court papers that they consider 114 people "unindicted co-conspirators."

Lake has not ruled that prosecutors at the Justice Department's Enron Task Force acted improperly. Even so, the judge said last week, Lay and Skilling had identified "a problem I am persuaded exists" in advance of a trial only four months away.

<snip>

Nearly three dozen former employees and those who did business with them have been charged with crimes in the Enron investigation. Several key figures, including finance chief Andrew S. Fastow and investor relations director Mark E. Koenig, pleaded guilty and agreed to testify against their former superiors.

...more...

[UpInArms]

43. Surviving Katrina's Huge Damage Claims (Taxpayers to Foot the Bill)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/06/AR2005090601821.html

Hurricane Katrina seems likely to become the most expensive natural catastrophe in U.S. history, but unless insured damages go far higher than the current high-endestimate of $35 billion, the insurance industry should be able to pay the claims without threat to its own solvency, industry experts said yesterday.

Because of the nature of the storm and the type of damage inflicted, private insurers will probably bear only a fraction of the total losses suffered in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama -- estimated at more than $100 billion by Risk Management Solutions Inc., a California firm that does computer modeling of damages from catastrophes.

But taxpayers, insurance ratepayers and others are likely to be feeling the economic effect of the giant storm for years to come, they acknowledged.

<snip>

But ultimately the numbers suggest that $60 billion to $70 billion in property losses from Katrina will have to be absorbed by taxpayers, through government programs and repairs, and by owners of homes and businesses.

The storm will push insurance rates up for some consumers. "It always does, because in the end, who else is there to pay the bill except ultimately the consumer?" said Tom Upton, a financial services analyst with Standard & Poor's in New York. But the Insurance Information Institute's Hartwig said the impact should be confined to hurricane-prone areas. "It does put upward pressure on rates as to higher risk areas," he said. "That's been the case in Florida. But those effects are isolated to the states likely to be impacted."

...more...

[54anickel]

50. And we all know who pays the brunt of taxes since Shrub came to town

with his tax-cuts.

This part was interesting - I just don't see a lot of low-income, downtown, housing fitting into the formula here.

snip>

"Challenge number one is the decision, not 'do we repair the levees to the preexisting level' but 'what is the design scenario we want them built to,' " Johnson said. Noting that there are 350 miles of levees around Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans, she said "the cost of bringing that up to a design" that could protect the city from a Category 4 or 5 storm "has to be explored, and a benefit-cost analysis has to be done."

"That will really define the rest of the reconstruction project," Johnson said. "The second major decision that follows," she said, is whether there are "certain parts of the city we are not going to rebuild," where it may make sense to buy out those properties and relocate the people.

snip>

But in coastal resort areas, the years following severe hurricanes have also brought into sharp relief the continuing conflict that pits developers and their customers who want to live close to the shore against insurers who don't want to underwrite such risks, at least not at a price the developers and homebuyers find acceptable.

[Roland99]

55. Shouldn't that be: "Taxpayers' Grandchildren to Foot the Bill"?

[54anickel]

74. Generation, after generation, after generation, after generation.....

[UpInArms]

46. SEC's chief accountant to leave in October (leaving a sinking ship)

How many have left since the Cox appointment?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38602.5103318171-841329601&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Securities and Exchange Commission Chief Accountant Donald Nicolaisen is departing the agency in October to return to work in the private sector, the SEC announced Wednesday. Nicolaisen, 61, worked closely on implementing the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, and joined the SEC in September 2003. He is the latest official to leave the SEC since Chairman Christopher Cox took office Aug. 4.

[UpInArms]

48. 12:22 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,602.06 +12.82 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,166.16 -0.70 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,233.96 +0.57 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.132 +0.47 (+1.15%)

NYSE Volume 948,561,000
Nasdaq Volume 683,896,000

12:05PM: Futures trading foreshadowed a lower start, and the 8:30 ET release of the Q2 productivity revision (to +1.8% versus +2.1% consensus and a +2.2% prior read) did not counter the tone. While the report is essentially "old news" that does not typically garner much attention, the upward revision in labor costs (to +2.5% from +1.3%) piqued some inflation concerns that have weighed on the Treasury market... The 10-year note is currently down 10 ticks and yielding 4.136%...

By and large, though, there hasn't been much conviction on the part of either buyers or sellers in the equity market, which looks to be catching its breath after Tuesday's broad-based rally... Additionally, there hasn't been any specific news catalyst to force any hard-charging trading action... Accordingly, there has been a lack of concerted leadership in the broader market that has kept a number of participants on the sidelines... The materials (+0.62%), healthcare (+0.52%), and energy (+0.42%) sectors are today's top performers to this point, with steel (+2.52%), healthcare services (+1.40%), and oil refining (+1.15%) stocks acting as pacesetters for those respective sectors...

For the most part, trading in crude futures has been choppy as oil prices have vacillated around the unchanged mark; currently, crude is is down $0.61 at $65.35/bbl... With respect to individual equities, there were notable upgrades today for three Dow components that have lent a measure of support to the broader market... To that end, McDonald's (MCD 33.27 +0.61) went to Outperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns, while Piper Jaffray upped JP Morgan (JPM 34.79 +0.22) to Outperform from Market Perform and UBS upgraded Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 27.55 +0.30) to Buy from Neutral...

[ozymandius]

51. 12:42

Dow 10,602.29 +13.05 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,166.70 -0.16 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,234.21 +0.82 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 41.33 +0.48 (+1.18%)
NYSE Volume 1,015,723,000
Nasdaq Volume 737,008,000

12:25PM: The major indices continue to trade in narrow ranges, with the Dow and S&P holding their heads just above the unchanged mark... The current standing of the Dow reflects the equity market's mixed tone. Of the 30 Dow comoponents, 13 are trending positive while the balance are in the red...McDonald's (MCD 33.81 +1.15) still sports the heftiest gain (3.5%), but support from 3M (MMM 73.85 +1.15) and Pfizer (PFE 26.32 0.45) has helped the average retain its modest gain... For its part, Pfizer is on the upswing after Bear Stears initiated the stock with an Outperform label...

Of the losers, Boeing (BA 64.21 -0.82), bogged down by its mechanists' strike, tops the list...

[54anickel]

53. Baton Rouge a Booming Haven for the Displaced

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-boomtown7sep07,0,2086844.story?coll=la-home-business

snip>

Amid an inflow of hurricane evacuees that has doubled the capital city's population overnight, hotels are full, apartments are hard to come by and houses that had languished on the market for months are getting all-cash offers at the asking price, or higher.

snip>

The effects of the migration are hard to escape in this town of around 228,000, a little more than 75 miles northwest of New Orleans. Traffic has slowed to a crawl as the flood of cars overwhelms the local road system. Demand for consumer products is surging, with shortages of items such as fast food and gasoline, street maps and ice.

But it's an odd sort of boom. In many cases, people have arrived with no jobs in the offing, causing what Baton Rouge Chamber of Commerce President Stephen Moret described as "an absorption problem."

Although Moret doesn't doubt that the city will see permanent growth in jobs and businesses, the influx is straining Baton Rouge's law enforcement, transportation and educational resources.

snip>

Since the hurricane, evacuees have radically changed Baton Rouge's real estate market. Judy Burkett, president of the Greater Baton Rouge Assn. of Realtors, said that before the storm, the area had 3,626 homes listed. Today it has about 2,500 officially for sale, but Burkett estimated that 75% of those homes have been sold already. The sales have not been recorded because of poor phone communications in the wake of the hurricane, which grazed Baton Rouge on its way up the Mississippi Valley.

Home prices have risen 20% since the storm, she said.

more...

[specimenfred1984]

56. 'Government Intervention in Stock Market'

Probably a dupe but here it is anyway:

--- Government Intervention in Stock Market is Detailed by New Report, GATA Says

MANCHESTER, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 6, 2005--A major Canadian financial management firm that a year ago published a compilation of evidence of central bank manipulation of the gold price has just done the same in regard to the U.S. stock market and has reached a similar conclusion.

The new report is titled "Move Over, Adam Smith: The Visible Hand of Uncle Sam," and has been published by Sprott Asset Management of Toronto. It was written by the firm's president, John P. Embry, and his assistant, Andrew Hepburn, and concludes that the U.S. government has intervened to support the stock market so many times that "what apparently started as a stopgap measure may have morphed into a serious moral hazard situation, with market manipulation an endemic feature of the U.S. stock market." ---

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050906/65371.html?.v=1

[ozymandius]

59. duped many times, I'd say...

But then I might be mixing metaphor.

I wonder who took over when "Fischer the Fixer" left the White House. But then - I wonder if ol' Fischer ever gave up gaming the equities.

[ozymandius]

57. 2:05

Dow 10,611.93 +22.69 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,168.21 +1.35 (+0.06%)
S&P 500 1,234.62 +1.23 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 41.39 +0.54 (+1.32%)
NYSE Volume 1,318,536,000
Nasdaq Volume 966,545,000

2:00PM: The indices continue to trade near their best levels of the day which, as one can see, aren't all that high... Be that as it may, bulls will find reason to be encouraged by the market's current disposition as it has remained resilient to selling activity following Tuesday's broad-based rally... The casinos and gaming group has risen to a second-place standing among S&P groups, with it 2.5% gain trailing steel's 2.6% increase...

After languishing in Katrina's wake, a number of the gaming segment's members are on the rise today. Harrah's (HET 71.43 +2.93) 4.3% jump has contributed to the Consumer Discretionary segment's (+0.5%) relatively strong performance today, while surges in the share of peers MGM Mirage (MGM 45.27 +2.55) and Boyd Gaming (BYD 48.55 +2.17) further reflect the buying interest the industry is attracting...NYSE Adv/Dec 1555/1628, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1400/1520

[UpInArms]

58. Ford recall 3.8 million trucks/suvs - Toyota recalls 978,000 trucks/suvs

Ford recalls 3.8 mln pickups, SUVs

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE99724E8%2D4450%2D4E31%2D9625%2DCA9AFCC5FBF8%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co., in one of the biggest recalls ever, called back about 3.8 million pickups and SUVs due to a faulty speed-control switch that could cause fires.

The recall covers the 1994-2002 model years' Ford F-150, Expedition, Bronco and Lincoln Navigator vehicles.

The Ford F-150 pickup truck is the best-selling vehicle in the U.S., with consumers buying 90,388 in August -- a 6.3% increase from a year ago despite surging gas prices.

During its investigation with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Ford (F: news, chart, profile) said it found that brake fluid could leak through the speed-control deactivation switch and potentially corrode electrical components, which could eventually cause overheating and a fire at the switch.

The auto manufacturer will install a fused wiring harness to act as a circuit breaker to remedy the potential problem, it said.

...more...

Toyota recalls 978,000 pickups, SUVs

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38602.5793481713-841338836&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Toyota Motor (TM) said Wednesday it is recalling 978,000 pickups and SUVs because the steering relay rod might crack under certain conditions, which could lead to a loss of steering. The recall covers power-steering equipped 1989-1996 model year 4Runner SUVs, compact pickups and T-100 pickups. Toyota said there have been no reported injuries or accidents relating to the potential problem. Toyota said it will notify owners of these vehicles by mail beginning in mid-September.

[ozymandius]

60. Ooh - that's me.

My 1993 Toyota PU has been fine so far through the six years I've owned it. This still makes me nervous.

[UpInArms]

65. gack!

Hope that nothing happens between the knowing and the fixing!

[UpInArms]

62. Treasury declines deepen on hawkish Moskow speech

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38602.5865951273-841339900&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.15%, as prices fell, following a mostly hawkish speech from interest-rate voter and Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow. Moskow repeated his concern that inflation risks creeping into consumer prices because the economy is running closer to capacity. While Moskow did say that the effects of Hurricane Katrina will have to be further evaluated, his inflation comments left the bond market believing the Fed won't pause its rate-tightening campaign this month.

Guess the Has-Been Partisan Hack has been twisting arms again.

[UpInArms]

66. 2:58 EST happy dance time (beige book has no effect) blather

Dow 10,619.18 +29.94 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,169.38 +2.52 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,234.66 +1.27 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.165 +0.80 (+1.96%)

NYSE Volume 1,546,528,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,143,919,000

2:35PM: The Beige Book came and went with little impact on the market... As expected , it didn't contain any salient hints on Katrina's influence on Fed thinking since the report was essentially complete before the hurricane hit... In any event, there were acknowledgments of modest price pressures, some softening in housing in some districts, and that retail sales gained in most places... The Treasury market has faded further in its wake, as the 10-yr is now down 16 ticks with its yield at 4.16%...

The equity market, meanwhile, has stalled in its bid to move higher, but selling activity has been mitigated by the encouraging drop in crude prices (-$1.61 at $65.10/bbl).... NYSE Adv/Dec 1604/1590, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1476/1462

2:00PM: The indices continue to trade near their best levels of the day which, as one can see, aren't all that high... Be that as it may, bulls will find reason to be encouraged by the market's current disposition as it has remained resilient to selling activity following Tuesday's broad-based rally... The casinos and gaming group has risen to a second-place standing among S&P groups, with it 2.5% gain trailing steel's 2.6% increase...

After languishing in Katrina's wake, a number of the gaming segment's members are on the rise today. Harrah's (HET 71.43 +2.93) 4.3% jump has contributed to the Consumer Discretionary segment's (+0.5%) relatively strong performance today, while surges in the share of peers MGM Mirage (MGM 45.27 +2.55) and Boyd Gaming (BYD 48.55 +2.17) further reflect the buying interest the industry is attracting...NYSE Adv/Dec 1555/1628, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1400/1520

[UpInArms]

68. 3:17 EST Markets have ecstacy attack

Dow 10,634.54 +45.30 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,171.55 +4.69 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,236.40 +3.01 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.145 +0.60 (+1.47%)

NYSE Volume 1,645,106,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,213,453,000

3:00 Trading within the session's tight range persists, as there hasn't been much notable movement over the past half hour... In addition to the mixed sector status -- five are in negative territory and five are on positive ground -- the current ratio of advancers to decliners further evidences the mixed sentiment that has characterized the session. On the Big Board, there are 15 advancers to 17 decliners; at the Nasdaq, the ratio is 14 to 15... Separately, crude futures contracts for October delivery closed at $65.15/bbl. Though the decline in crude prices today (-2.3%) was noteworthy, the Energy sector has held its own and is currently down 0.1%... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1480/1748. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1423/1540.

[UpInArms]

70. 3:30's rah-rah blather from LaLa

3:30PM: Heading towards the closing bell, the market has gained some steam as the indices pushed to new session highs in the past half hour. All but two sectors now - Telecom is down 0.6% and Utilities is off 0.2% - are trending positive... McDonald's (MCD 33.75 +1.09) hasn't relinquished its first-place position within the blue chip average, but a handful of fellow components are helping to drive the Dow higher. The top five perfomers include the fast-food giant, followed by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 64.78 +0.99), 3M (MMM 73.89 +1.21), Pfizer (PFE 26.21 +0.34), and Caterpillar (CAT 59.06 +0.55)...

As for the laggards, Alcoa (AA 26.53 -0.43), Boeing (BA 64.50 -0.53) Verizon (VZ 32.67 -0.23), General Motors (GM 32.88 -0.22), and SBC (SBC 24.06 -0.18) are the Dow's bottom five...NYSE Adv/Dec 1640/1584, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1539/1433

[ozymandius]

71. closing numbers

Dow 10,633.50 +44.26 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,172.03 +5.17 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,236.36 +2.97 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 41.38 +0.53 (+1.30%)
NYSE Volume 2,036,424,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,480,759,000

blather ahead

[ozymandius]

73. blather at last

Close: As futures trading had suggested, stocks opened slightly lower, and the 8:30 release of the Q2 productivity revision (to +1.8% versus the +2.1% consensus and the +2.2% prior read) did not challenge the prevailing sentiment. Although the data is essentially "old news" that does not typically warrant much interest, the upward revision in labor costs (to +2.5% from +1.3%), combined with some hawkish-sounding comments in an afternoon speech from Chicago Fed President Moskow, piqued some inflation worries that roiled the Treasury market. At its close, the 10-year benchmark note was down 11 ticks, yielding 4.138%. The stock market, for its part, didn't waver much in the face of those concerns; in fact, it added to Tuesday's sizable gains, finishing the session on an upbeat note that left the indices near their highs for the day. A key source of support came from the decline in crude prices (-$1.68 to $65.03/bbl) that accelerated in the afternoon trade as speculative positions continued to be unwound. Combined with the pullback in gas prices, the drop in crude prices fed continued buying interest in the Consumer Discretionary sector (+0.85%), which was the best-performing economic sector on Wednesday. A host of analyst upgrades had provided some early support to the market at large, but restaurants received a special pop with the likes of McDonald's (MCD 33.70 +1.04), Yum Brands (YUM 50.65 +2.90), Brinker (EAT 38.39 +1.39), and Ruby Tuesday (RI 23.56 +1.39) each being upgraded (Bear Stearns upgraded the restaurant group as a whole to Market Overweight from Market Weight). Aside from the MCD upgrade, the broader market drew added support from brokerage upgrades of JP Morgan Chase (JPM 34.89 0.32) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 27.47 +0.22 ). Outside of Consumer Discretionary, the Health Care (+0.70%) and Materials (+0.68%) sectors comprised pockets of relative strength, with the healthcare services (+1.62%), pharmaceutical (+1.26%), and steel (+1.82%) groups underpinning gains in those respective areas... Telecom Services (-0.5%) spent the day in the loser's seat, with bellwethers SBC (SBC 24.08 -0.16) and Verizon (VZ 32.71 -0.19) failing to participate. The Utilities (-0.09%), Consumer Staples (-0.03%), and Information Technology (-0.02%) sectors were the other losers on Wednesday, but their losses were negligible...

As such, the market forged another winning session that can be held out as a moral victory for the bulls given the follow through interest after Tuesday's rally... On Thursday, look for weekly inventory data from the Dept. of Energy to help dictate trading action; meanwhile, Intel (INTC) and Texas Instruments (TXN) will both be holding mid-quarter updates after the close.NYSE Adv/Dec 1703/1550, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1638/1371

[54anickel]

76. Not much in the way of blather regarding the blood on the Treasury floor.

Gotta wonder what's up with that?