STOCK MARKET WATCH, TUESDAY OCT 21...(#1)

[ozymandius]

Tuesday October 21, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 461
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 337
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 312 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 5 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 212
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 696
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 20, 2003

Dow... 9,777.94 +56.15 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq... 1,925.14 +12.78 (+0.67%)
S&P 500.... 1,044.68 +5.36 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.38% -0.01 (-0.18%)
Gold future... 374.40 +2.20 (+0.59%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. SPECIAL EDITION WRAPUP

"Where's the Beef?" by Jim Puplava & Eric King

Fundamental Review
by Jim Puplava

On Wall Street they are getting ready to pop the champagne bottles again as the Dow heads towards 10,000 and the NASDAQ is approaching 2,000. For Wall Street and investors it has been a pretty good year. The S&P 500 is up 18% and the NASDAQ has gained over 43%. We haven’t seen these kind of numbers since 1999. The consensus is that this year will end up being a blowout year for stocks and next year could be equally as rewarding. Behind the rise in stocks is a belief that the long-awaited recovery has finally arrived. Economic growth has been strong, earnings have improved, and as a consequence, stock prices are on the mend. Talk everywhere is that the fundamentals are improving, business conditions are getting stronger, and the American consumer continues to borrow and spend money. More importantly in Wall Street’s opinion is that Fed policy remains favorable and should remain so until the economy is on firm ground. The advice to investors is to be long stocks.

So, who's buying and why?

If insiders are selling, who is buying? The answer to that question is easy—everyone from institutional investors to the general public. Institutional investors are more fully invested than at any time in the past three years. The public is coming back into the market with margin debt now at its highest level in a year. Day trading is also making a comeback.

The two main reasons driving this market is the much touted second-half recovery. The economy is expected to boom along with it corporate profits. The company’s expected to be in the forefront of this recovery are technology and energy stocks. Energy companies from ExxonMobil to natural gas producers like Apache are reporting stellar profits. Energy has accounted for a good bulk of the profits this year within the S&P 500. Yet the stocks have virtually gone nowhere by comparison. The money is going mainly into technology. This is reflected in the fact that the bulk of this year’s gains has occurred in technology—a fact that is reflected by the gulf between the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. However, that isn’t where the money is going. The bulk of this year's gains have occurred in the technology sector. The NASDAQ is up over 43%; while specific tech sectors such as the SOX (The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) is up 62% this year. The Internet sector is up even more. Amazon.com is up 212%, Drugstore.com is up 221%, Homestore is up 295%, and Priceline.com is up 205%. Today’s manic rise in technology is almost reminiscent of the technology mania of 1999.

The Bubble is Back in the Internet Sector Too

[JNelson6563]

3. Interesting and alarming

Great Wrap-up Ozy, thanks for posting and have a great day!

Here was the line that caught my eye:

The public is coming back into the market with margin debt now at its highest level in a year.

Coupled with record debt levels in other categories (i.e. credit card and houses remortgaged to the hilt) this is a chilling revelation. I cringe whenever I hear "buying on margin", it just fits too nicely with that wrap-up from last week that listed those quotes from the crash/depression era.

From afar we have a pretty economic picture to behold but when you get up close you see it's actually the portrait Dorian keeps in the attic. ;-)

Julie

[ozymandius]

2. Have a great day Marketeers!

This is hello and goodbye.

If the folks at Financial Sense are correct about a popping bubble with no bottom to its underside, then I expect the positive net result will be a tattered Bush hung out to dry. My willingness to lose much of my puny portfolio's worth is a small price to pay to extricate a cancer from our government. BTW - did you read John Snow's comments about interest rates going up? That caught many analysts by surprise. Not surprising that rates are going up - just surprising that Snow said it. By that token and others uttered during Snow's tenure, looks like Bush picked the right buy to shoot a big ol' hole in this administration's foot.

Bravo George!

[Don_G]

You Don't Run Your Mouth

Unless you know what you're talking about. Could this explain the run of upper-level administration officals to the private sector akin to lemmings going over a cliff?

Sorry to lurk, post and run but you guys have an idea of what's happenning with the economy and I can't; it's psychology and not logic.

FYI, I never miss the Stock Market thread. It's entertaining, affects our purchasing power and---if I can ever get my cat to stop yowling at Dimbo---y'all and her probably offer more insight than the collective wisdom of the NYSE and NASDAQ combined.

[JNelson6563]

6. Funny you should mention that,

if I can ever get my cat to stop yowling at Dimbo---y'all and her probably offer more insight than the collective wisdom of the NYSE and NASDAQ combined.

Actually I get my financial guidance from my cats. Depending on how obnoxious they are in the morning I can tell how bearish/bullish things will be.

Thanks for letting us know you read the thread--glad you enjoy it. :hi:

Julie--who'd like to remind everybody that playing the markets is a Blood Sport and recommends something less brutal (like hockey) for the gentler souls

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JNelson6563]

5. Snow="moran"

He simply plays the role they cast him in. He does as he's told in spite of efforts to make him look the "maverick".

Julie

[Don_G]

7. I Must Have Missed The "Wisdom" #4 Had To Offer

Sad because it's an opinion and the stock market is based on little more than psychology and attitudes IMHO.

He/She/It could have provided a valuable insight into the psychology of the market if the post was allowed to stand and if the response wasn't obscene or terminally stupid.

[Maeve]

8. Good Tuesday morning, Marketeers!

I've got a lot going on and can't check in as often, but I did want to contribute something...stories some may have missed yesterday...

Leading Indicators Fall
Research group's September index of forward-looking economic indicators off, first time since March.
October 20, 2003: 10:39 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A group of leading U.S. economic indicators was lower in September, a research group said Monday, as the economy appeared to slow down from a late-summer surge.

The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of leading economic indicators (LEI) fell 0.2 percent to 113 after rising 0.4 percent in August. Economists, on average, expected the index to be unchanged, according to Briefing.com.

It was the first decline in the index since March, when the economy slowed down due to fears about the impending U.S. war with Iraq.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sentiment, schmentiment
Most sentiment indicators aren't worth the paper they're written on.
October 20, 2003: 11:11 AM EDT
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Traders spend a lot of time trying to get a handle on where investor sentiment is headed so they can bet the other way. A new study suggests they're wasting their time.
<snip>
Various polls of Wall Streeters, investors and the like have been devised to get a handle on where sentiment is, most prominently the American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Index Ratio, the Consensus Bullish Sentiment Index, the Investors Intelligence Survey and the Market Vane Bullish Consensus.
All four are touted as contrary indicators. And all four, according to a report published late Friday by Merrill Lynch chief U.S. equity strategist Rich Bernstein, are pretty much useless.
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In other words, :shrug:

[Maeve]

9. Opening is mixed at 9:33

Dow 9,768.68 -9.26 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,929.32 +4.18 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,044.27 -0.41 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.356% -0.024

[JNelson6563]

10. Mornin' Miss Maeve!

Things seem to be getting progressively worse. 9:51:

Dow 9,748.01 -29.93 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,925.86 +0.72 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,043.14 -1.55 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.349% -0.031

Wait and see I guess.

Julie

[UpInArms]

11. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 92.28 Change -0.15 (-0.16%)

and the market is mixed


Dow 9,744.24 -33.70 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 1,932.36 +7.22 (+0.38%)
S&P 500 1,043.77 -0.91 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.336% -0.044

and some commentary

http://money.cnn.com/2003/10/21/commentary/bidask/bidask/

Two million jobs
What would it take for Treasury Secretary Snow's jobs prediction to come true?

So it was a little weird to see a former CEO, Treasury Secretary John Snow, predict in an interview with London's Times that the U.S. economy would generate two million jobs from the third quarter of this year to the third quarter next year.

This exceeds even the most optimistic economists' predictions and it left Wall Streeters grumbling that Snow had oversold his case. To hit Snow's job target, they say, the economy would have to grow in excess of 4 percent over the next year.

And even if this growth goal gets hit (which is certainly a possibility given that the consensus is calling for GDP growth of 3.9 percent in 2004), productivity growth, which ran at a 7.2 percent clip in the second quarter would have to slow markedly -- 2.5 percent or less is what Goldman Sachs economists are guessing.

...more...

have a great day marketeers!

[trogdor]

12. Well shiat! I predict the Tigers will win the AL pennant next year.

While I'm at it, I also predict that the weather in Syracuse on Christmas Eve will be 85 degrees and sunny, Zaire will win the hockey gold medal in the 2006 winter Olympics, and Elvis will play at Caesar's Palace on New Year's Eve.

2 million jobs? Get real.

[UpInArms]

13. wish in one hand and

spit in the other :D)

[radfringe]

24. Whistleass said a million new jobs

Snow is saying 2-million.... sounds like someone is in a bidding war

do I hear 3 million new jobs to replace the 3 million we have already lost?

[JNelson6563]

14. 12:03 update

A little bumpy today....

Dow 9,768.01 -9.93 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,941.29 +16.15 (+0.84%)
S&P 500 1,046.92 +2.24 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.326% -0.054


Nice rally in Treasuries. :-)

Julie

[mrsteve]

15. 1:10 - Hello on a confusing day

Looks like the Dow keeps nosing around under water, while the Nasdaq is floating well above. Are techs looking that strong these days?

Dow 9,756.09 -21.85 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 1,940.00 +14.86 (+0.77%)
S&P 500 1,046.77 +2.09 (+0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.330% -0.050

[mrsteve]

16. A little bit of Yahoo Fi blather and CNN/Money opinion

Yahoo updates:

"12:55PM: This market just won't give in...after pushing higher around noon, it has held up against modest selling pressure...Amazon.com (AMZN 60.98 +1.37) is due to report after the close and apparently traders expect a good report...eBay sold off after an in line report, so Amazon may have to provide excellent guidance about the critical fourth quarter to hold the stock price...of course, the company has never lacked confidence..."

CNN Money is a little more confident:

"NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A bounce in technology shares, led by strong earnings by Texas Instruments, boosted the Nasdaq at midday Monday, while the broader market was fairly flat, recovering from earlier weakness."
(snip)
"But the Dow's telephone companies offered quarterly reports that were disappointing.

AT&T (T: down $1.29 to $19.78, Research, Estimates) reported earnings per share that grew from a year ago, on revenue that declined due to weaker customer demand and increased competition. The stock dropped 5 percent and was one of the NYSE's most-actively traded issues.

Similar problems plagued SBC Communications (SBC: down $0.43 to $21.97, Research, Estimates), which reported lower quarterly earnings per share and revenue from a year earlier that missed analysts' estimates, as it lost business to wireless competitors and others. SBC's shares shed nearly 4 percent."

So that's why the Nasdaq is floating and the Dow is torpedo'ed.

[mrsteve]

17. 2:05 - Slow upward moves

Dw 9,769.66 -8.28 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,941.28 +16.14 (+0.84%)
S&P 500 1,047.69 +3.01 (+0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.338% -0.042

Yahoo Fi is now guardedly postive:
"2:00PM: Market sentiment remains supportive as indices maintain slight upward bias...many stocks attracting attention are those pushing towards or breaking 52-week highs...Yahoo (42.91 +0.54) is on that list...Chinese Internet stocks, which have been a hot play, are down on a cautious intra-day note from Piper Jaffray...bond market also supporting stocks today as the 10-year is +14/32 to yield 4.32%.."

[JNelson6563]

18. A howdy to Steve and update

Well today seems the epitome of confusion. I for one am done with the large mailing that has consumed huge gobs of my time for over a week. Whew!! Let's all hope for great results!

Here's the update for 2:45:


Dow 9,772.82 -5.12 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,942.16 +17.02 (+0.88%)
S&P 500 1,047.96 +3.27 (+0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.358% -0.022

I've got in-laws arriving today and my daughter's first orchestra concert of the season. Big day here in Julie-world! :-)

Julie

[mrsteve]

20. Hello Julie - good to see someone having a big day of something...

...other than office work. Sounds like fun, too. And I mean that non-sarcastically! Finishing a large job is always a bit of a buzz, and friends and family would be a more entertaining to be with right now instead of marooned in an nondescript office tower in the suburbs.

Ahh, but now I mope. Guess the waste of simultaneous posting with you has bummed me out. :evilgrin:

Best of luck with your busy schedule.

[Maeve]

22. Glad to hear it, Julie!

Always a relief to get a project out the door. I've finally gotten around to writing up my notes from my trip this summer.
And my daughter has a choir concert tonight!

Flashing lights and sounds coming from the Casino, but little real action. Let's see how the last hour plays out.
Dow 9,772.53 -5.41 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,942.78 +17.64 (+0.92%)
S&P 500 1,048.13 +3.45 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.368% -0.012

[mrsteve]

19. 2:45 - not a lot of movement

Dow 9,770.90 -7.04 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 1,941.83 +16.69 (+0.87%)
S&P 500 1,047.77 +3.09 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.362% -0.018

[htuttle]

21. Wow, Gold is up $7.50 right now

I don't think I've ever seen gold rise over $7 in a single day.

[mrsteve]

23. 3:30 - and the casino will be closing in 30 minutes

Starting a bit of a downtick in the last half hour.

Dow 9,758.68 -19.26 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,939.34 +14.20 (+0.74%)
S&P 500 1,046.28 +1.60 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.366% -0.014

[mrsteve]

25. 4:00 - Close of a strange day

Normally, the indexes travel pretty well together. Today, however, the Nasdaq floated sideways all afternoon on a roughly 1% gain, while the Dow flopped about all day below the water line, and the 10 year took a bit of hit (although almost climbing out in the last hour):

Dow 9,747.64 -30.30 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,940.90 +15.76 (+0.82%)
S&P 500 1,046.03 +1.34 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.366% -0.014