STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 9 September

[ozymandius]

Friday September 9, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 134 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 263 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 327 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1384
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 8, 2005

Dow... 10,595.93 -37.57 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq... 2,166.03 -6.00 (-0.28%)
S&P 500... 1,231.67 -4.69 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.14% +0.00 (+0.02%)
Gold future... 450.70 +1.70 (+0.38%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

On Public and Free Market Matters

Following the devastation and human tragedy and suffering brought on by Hurricane Katrina, the stock market rallied. Who knows why? There’s much speculation about various US companies that will benefit from the rescue, stabilization, and rebuilding of New Orleans. Of course, they all cannot benefit in the universal manner that the short term stock market is predicting. I’m speculating that the effects of Katrina will provide numerous companies with a new fix of “special” charges and one-time event excuses to propel their stock certificates for a few more quarters in an over-liquefied and speculative market. How else to explain the most recent rally in consumer stocks right after they took their first serious technical damage in over a year as gasoline surged well above $3.00 per gallon?

As I’ve said before, the key event for US consumer stocks is the shopping season for Christmas 2005, and you can bet that this fact is not lost on the Fed or the politicians in charge. If the Fed keeps raising short term interest rates, this is likely to invert the yield curve and this will not reflect well on the public’s perception of the US economy. The more likely scenario is that the Fed slows the “measured pace” short term interest rate hikes, thereby floating the US economy for another couple of quarters. However, one cannot yet ignore the possibility that armed with a good excuse – Katrina – the Fed may decide to burst the US debt bubble and consumer economy via continued and prolonged measured pace rate increases. Don’t listen to me or anyone else on this…keep your eyes on the charts and listen to the Fed governors to see which way the Fed wants to go. Remember the trend has been for the Fed to telegraph their moves via the press, and the trend deserves the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

-cut-

My point is that there are no simple absolutes in issues of public funding for public works. The correct approach is somewhere between the completely private free market and socialism. I’m hoping that a few short years from now, we can look back on a rebuilt and prosperous New Orleans as US citizens with a good perspective of who we are and for what we stand.

In the mean time, yours truly is perfectly willing to not shed even one tear worrying about our lack of oil refining capacity and piping infrastructure in the US. These are private sector issues and this is America. In this matter, why not just let the free market work? If it was profitable and a good business decision for oil companies to build US refineries, they would do so. If we are hitting peak oil, then what would motivate an oil company to build a refinery when they can alternatively raise prices on refined products from existing refineries? If we are near peak oil, then why invest the necessary capital to build a refinery with an economic life of over 30 years? While it takes a level of expertise most people do not have to evaluate the economics in detail, why bother as oil company managements have done the analysis already? Just rely on the free market. It’s a business decision!

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[cornermouse]

2. I'd like to ask a question.

To me, investing in the stock market appears to defy logic. One of the things they tell you is not to invest anything you can't afford to lose. Therefore, you can lose part or all of your money in the stock market. Then they tell you that you should invest in the stock market because you're going to get profits that should be plowed back into the stock market.

With baby boomers retirement coming up, isn't there a substantial amount of people who will be wanting to pull their money out to live on or to settle estates? Also, as I understand it, if you invest in the stock market and are lucky enough to have money coming in from investments, they plan to deduct that from your social security.

So how does anyone involved in the stock market come out ahead?

[trogdor]

3. You've hit the nail squarely on the head.

The "buy and hold" strategy where you put X dollars in a mutual fund every payday doesn't work anymore. If you look at a chart for the past five years, the market has been pretty much flat, and "buy and hold" only works in a bull market. Now you have to pay more attention, look for bargains, and bail when prices have peaked. The 90's are over.

You are also dead right about the baby boomers. They're holding a shitload of stocks, and they'll all want to retire in a few years. If they're smart, they'll switch to low-risk stuff PDQ, because one day the bottom will fall out, and lots of folks will be sucking.

[AnneD]

64. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: cornermouse, boomers will be required BY LAW to sell when they reach 70 and 1/2 years of age-that's when the fun will start (and why the push for private social security accounts). Welcome to the thread all you lurkers. Happy hunting and watch out for the bears....

[UpInArms]

4. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.09 Change +0.05 (+0.06%)

Dollar Traders Continue to Debate the Outcome of September Fed Rate Decision

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3359&Itemid=39

US Dollar
The dollar is firmer once again as the Katrina induced jitteriness in the markets continues to subside. Yesterday afternoon we posed the question of whether the Fed could deliver a mid-cycle pause. This morning, there was an article in the Wall Street Journal that examined the very same topic. There seems to be a lot of dissent within the Fed itself as some Fed officials believe that it would appear “unseemly” to raise rates so soon after a national tragedy while others believe that it would be a “mistake for the Fed to subordinate its goals of low inflation and maximum growth to political considerations.” They also fear that “pausing for noneconomic reasons could actually undermine confidence by suggesting that the Fed is more worried about the economy than it actually is.” Bottom-line, it appears that the smooth sailing to 4% rates is behind us and for now, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the September meeting and accompanying statement. According to the people who responded to a poll posted on the bottom of DailyFX.com, 40% of the 330 respondents expect rates to be increased to 4.00% by year end while another 30% expect only one more rate hike to 3.75%. Jobless claims fell 1k, but the improvement was largely ignored since most of Katrina victims have yet to get a chance last week to file for benefits. Consumer credit also fell far short of expectations, rising only $4.4 billion compared to the market’s forecast for an $11.2 billion increase. Since the decline came primarily from less credit card debt, consumers are either cutting back purchases or using lower interest rate debt such as home equity loans to pay off higher interest rate debt.

...more...

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: Will U.S. Imports Spark Further Rate Hikes?

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3358&Itemid=39

US Import Index (Aug) (12:30 GMT, 8:30EDT)
Consensus: 1.1%
Previous: 1.1%

Outlook: The U.S. import price index looks to repeat its performance of last month, rising 1.1 percent in the monthly comparison. Once again, based on higher valuations in crude oil, August saw future prices hit all time highs at multiple dates, ultimately settling on a $70.85 a barrel price on August 30th. As a result, with prices remaining lofty and consumption unabated, experts are looking for a definitive repeat if not a higher figure to be printed tomorrow morning. On an annual comparison, the figure looks to remain at a lofty 7.7 percent for the year, sparking further speculation of interest rate increases when the Federal Reserve meets later this month. Contributing to the notion were statements by Federal Reserve Bank President Moskow, warning that price increases required an “appropriate” Fed response.

Previous: Prices of imported goods rose the most in four months as higher crude oil and energy prices paced increases on record climbs in commodity valuations in the month of July. The import index was expected to rise 0.6 percent after a 1 percent gain in June. Excluding petroleum prices, however, the import index fell for the third consecutive time, slipping 0.1 percent for the month after a decline of 0.2 percent in the previous month. As a result, with the U.S. economy importing 64 percent of overall crude consumption, costs look to rise once again at the producer level. Ultimately disseminating on the consumer picture, further evidence exists for rising consideration of another interest rate hike come September when policy makers next convene.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. a peek at the falling dollar

Last trade 86.77 Change -0.27 (-0.31%)

Settle 87.04 Settle Time 23:36

Open 86.92 Previous Close 87.04

High 87.20 Low 86.75

Last tick: 2005-09-09 08:58:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

47. still falling

Last trade 86.63 Change -0.41 (-0.47%)

Settle 87.04 Settle Time 23:36

Open 86.92 Previous Close 87.04

High 87.20 Low 86.58

Last tick: 2005-09-09 11:25:17 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

5. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Sep 9	8:30 AM	Export Prices ex-ag.	Aug	-	NA	NA	0.2%	-	
Sep 9	8:30 AM	Import Prices ex-oil	Aug	-	NA	NA	-0.1%	-

[UpInArms]

10. reports tumble in:

8:30am 09/09/05 U.S. AUG. IMPORT PRICES EX-FUELS FALL FOR 4TH STRAIGHT MONTH

8:30am 09/09/05 U.S. IMPORT PRICE INDEX UP 7.6% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:30am 09/09/05 U.S. AUG. IMPORTED PETROLEUM PRICES UP 7.1%

8:30am 09/09/05 U.S. AUG. EXPORT PRICES EX-AGRICULTURE FALL 0.1%

8:30am 09/09/05 U.S. AUG. EXPORT PRICES FALL 0.1%

8:30am 09/09/05 U.S. AUG. IMPORT PRICES EX-OIL UNCHANGED

8:30am 09/09/05 U.S. AUG. IMPORT PRICE INDEX UP 1.3% V. 1.2% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

11. Import prices up - export prices fall

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38604.3544059491-841640452&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Prices of goods imported into the United States increased 1.3% in August, the fastest increase since March, the Labor Department said. The price gains were almost exclusively in energy goods such as crude petroleum and natural gas. Excluding the 7.1% rise in petroleum prices, import prices were flat, the fourth month in a row with no increase. Meanwhile, prices of exports from the United States dropped 0.1% in August, with agriculture prices falling 0.6%.

[UpInArms]

20. Petroleum pushes US import prices up in August

(I guess by "excluding" the rise in petroleum prices, they think that those costs just "go away" :eyes: )

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-09-09T130509Z_01_N09333987_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-WRAPUP-1.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Soaring petroleum costs pushed U.S. import prices up sharply in August, government data showed on Friday, but other import prices remained very subdued in good news for the Federal Reserve as it monitors inflation.

Economists are also scrutinizing data for evidence of how Hurricane Katrina has hurt U.S. growth. But the Labor Department said the August survey was conducted before the storm struck and therefore was not affected.

The Labor Department said U.S. import prices rose by 1.3 percent last month, versus a Wall Street forecast for a 1.2 percent gain. July's import price numbers were revised down to show a 0.8 percent gain from 1.1 percent previously reported.

Export prices fell 0.1 percent, compared with forecasts for a 0.2 percent increase and a 0.1 percent rise in July.

The data serves as one of the early warning indicators of inflation and will worry the Federal Reserve if it thinks these cost pressures will subsequently show up in consumer prices.

<snip>

"So it doesn't look like we have a major inflation problem outside of oil, which is good for the Fed," he said.

Over the last 12 months, import prices have risen 7.6 percent, reflecting a 42.5 percent rise in the cost of petroleum, which has challenged consumer spending power and raised concern at the U.S. central bank about inflation.

...more nonsense at link...

[54anickel]

6. Fed to keep raising rates despite Katrina

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-09-08T223856Z_01_KWA881411_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-ECONOMY-FED-KATRINA-DC.XML

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A swelling chorus of Federal Reserve policy-makers say the best way to help the U.S. economy heal from Hurricane Katrina is to keep inflation in check -- a sign interest rates will keep rising as planned.

Less than two weeks before a September 20 scheduled meeting of the U.S. central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, chances the Fed might pause in its rate-rise cycle in recognition of the storm's impact were diminishing.

"The greatest contribution monetary policy can make is to keep the national economy on an even keel," San Francisco Fed Bank President Janet Yellen told community leaders in San Francisco on Thursday.

"Monetary policy, unfortunately, has little scope to cushion the immediate economic fallout from such a severe and sudden blow to a region," she said.

:wtf: What was all that lowering about after 9-11?

more...

[UpInArms]

7. GM to end employee pricing program

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-08T212814Z_01_KWA877141_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-AUTOS-GM-INCENTIVES-DC.XML

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Thursday said it will end a promotion under which it has been selling U.S. consumers new cars and trucks at the same low prices its employee pay on September 30.

GM spokeswoman Deborah Silverman said the world's largest automaker had notified dealers of the plan to drop its "Employee Discount for Everyone" program late on Wednesday.

The program gave GM, which is riding out a deepening financial crisis, a sorely needed surge in its U.S. vehicle sales in June and July.

But GM's sales fell nearly 17 percent in August from the same month a year ago, when adjusted for the number of selling days, after exceptional results earlier in the summer left its dealers short of new vehicles.

Consumer fatigue with employee pricing deals, which were matched by GM's crosstown rivals, also worked against extending the discounts.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. Oil climbs above $65 on output recovery

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-09T115412Z_01_ROB775473_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-MARKETS-OIL-DC.XML

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose above $65 a barrel on Friday, after steep losses earlier in the week, as oil rigs and refineries in the U.S. Gulf recovered less quickly than expected from Hurricane Katrina's rampage.

But slowing global oil demand growth may yet help offset the storm's devastating blow to America's energy hub and help the International Energy Agency (IEA) to fend off a petrol shortage.

U.S. light crude was up 62 cents at $65.11 a barrel by 1145 GMT, extending a gain of 12 cents on Thursday. Prices are still down 8 percent from a record-high of $70.85 last week. London Brent crude rose 84 cents to $63.92.

New data from the U.S. Minerals Management Service dashed hopes of a swift industry recovery, revealing about 900,000 bpd, or 60 percent of U.S. crude output was still shut by Thursday.

"It now appears that recovery of additional offshore production will be painstaking and we may be faced with prolonged outages of some rigs in addition to the refineries that were flooded," said brokers Refco in a report.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. Republicans eye expanding US offshore drilling

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-09-08T221551Z_01_KWA880043_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-ENERGY-CONGRESS-DC.XML

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Barely a month after President George W. Bush signed a $14.5 billion energy bill into law, Hurricane Katrina's destructive dance through the U.S. oilpatch is being seized on by Republicans as a reason to open more federal offshore waters to drilling.

The House of Representatives and Senate energy committees are also looking at measures to help the energy industry, such as incentives to build the first U.S. refinery since 1976 and cutting the array of fuel blends required by anti-pollution rules.

Before Katrina shut most of the Gulf of Mexico's oil and gas production and 10 percent of U.S. refining capacity, Republicans were gunning for a budgetary step to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to exploration.

Now they have widened their scope to include drilling in banned Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) waters off Florida and other states. Currently, federal offshore drilling is allowed only in Alaska, Alabama, Louisiana and Texas.

ANWR and offshore drilling may be included in an omnibus federal budget bill that lawmakers want to take up after they work on hurricane disaster aid. Such a bill cannot be filibustered, or talked to death under Senate rules and can be passed with a simple majority vote.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. Crude helps lift oil stocks ($65 bbl)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38604.402646331-841650072&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Oil stocks climbed broadly Friday morning with investors looking to constrained production in the Gulf of Mexico and higher crude prices. October-dated crude futures rose 51 cents to $65 a barrel. The Amex Oil Index and the Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX) each added 0.7% and the Amex Natural Gas Index ($XNG) gained 0.6%.

[ozymandius]

40. Oil edges higher on slow storm recovery

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Friday, after steep losses earlier in the week, as oil rigs and refineries in the U.S. Gulf recovered less quickly than expected from Hurricane Katrina's rampage.

But slowing global oil demand growth may yet help offset the storm's devastating blow to America's energy hub and help the International Energy Agency (IEA) to fend off a petrol shortage, the West's energy watchdog said on Friday.

-cut-

"The loss in potential gasoline output from these plants alone is expected to be of the order of 600,000 barrels a day," said Barclays Capital in a report.

more

[ozymandius]

41. Tumult in the Energy Markets

New Orleans residents who chose to ride out Hurricane Katrina were not the only ones caught unaware by the severity of the devastation that followed. Energy commodities traders were equally unprepared.

"Basically before the hurricane, they went home Friday thinking this thing is going to fizzle out, it's going to bark but it's not going to bite," said Fadel Gheit, a veteran energy analyst at Oppenheimer & Company.

Indeed, crude oil prices fell $1.36 a barrel, to $66.13, on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday, Aug. 26. Many traders sold crude oil futures short, betting prices would fall Monday morning after the storm cleared out, having caused little damage to rigs, refineries, ports and pipelines, Mr. Gheit and other analysts said.

And thus began a two-week roller coaster ride for the energy market, where supplies were already tight and demand unrelenting. Information was scarce at first, and rumors ran rampant, beginning the run-up in prices. Then, as the severity of the devastation became clear, prices soared, only to fall back as the government stepped in as the supplier of last resort. In the process, some traders made big profits and others suffered big losses.

more

[UpInArms]

54. The 'other' gas sets sights on $15 (winter fuel shocker coming)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAE1C3506%2D4B25%2D4B66%2DA0EE%2D29C249A7F94B%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Consumers are set for another price shocker in the coming months: $15 gas.

That's the price per million British thermal units some experts believe the natural-gas futures market may see by the end of the winter.

Just a month ago, when prices for the energy commodity were trading around $9 per million BTUs on the futures market, experts were weighing the likelihood of record prices. See archived Commodities Corner.

And it was just over a week ago that futures prices hit an all-time high of $12.25 as Hurricane Katrina's devastation in the Gulf Coast region began to become apparent. See related story.

"With current prices above $11 per million BTU ... the cost to consumers this winter is likely to be greater than any previous winter," said Jason Schenker, an economist at Wachovia Corp.

...more...

[54anickel]

12. Demand for Fuel Seems to Be Falling (But they question reports)

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-energy9sep09,1,248341.story?coll=la-headlines-business

snip>

The Energy Department issues weekly reports on gasoline demand and supplies, and many analysts expected its newest report Thursday to show a surge in demand during the four days after Katrina's devastation, reflecting the panic buying.

Yet the agency's statistics arm, the Energy Information Administration, reported Thursday that in the week ended Sept. 2, gasoline demand fell 4% from the previous week to 9.03 million barrels a day.

The Energy Information Administration also said that for the four weeks ended Sept. 2, demand inched up only 0.1% from a year earlier to 9.33 million barrels a day, an increase well below the 1.2% to 1.6% year-over-year gains reported in late August.

Analysts promptly labeled the data as suspect, contending that reliable numbers were hard to obtain in the days just after Katrina made landfall.

With about 20% of U.S. refining capacity either shut down or operating at reduced levels last week, compiling precise data was difficult, and "we question the accuracy of these numbers," analyst Jacques Rousseau of investment firm Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. said in a report to clients.

more...

Sounds like they're cryin' to me. Probably goes something like this:
This wasn't suppose to happen, all them SUVs and that urban sprawl - we had 'em over a barrel. How could demand fall this much?

[UpInArms]

13. NYMEX to halt trading for two minutes to mark Sept. 11

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38604.3593146181-841641594&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The New York Mercantile Exchange will observe the fourth anniversary of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 with one-minute trading halts at 8:46 a.m. Eastern Time and again at 9:03 a.m. Eastern Time. Open Outcry Trading for NYMEX Energy contracts will be delayed to 11:00 a.m.

[UpInArms]

14. US Treasury's Snow sees 1/2 pct Katrina hit to GDP

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-09T124000Z_01_NYG000036_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow told Bloomberg Television on Friday that U.S. economic growth would probably dip by closer to 1/2 percentage point in the second half of 2004 because of the Hurricane Katrina.

Responding to a question on the accuracy of the Congressional Budget Office's estimate that Katrina would cut near-term gross domestic product growth by 1 percentage point, Snow said he reckoned that estimate was too high.

"I think it's probably on the high side. I've seen other estimates more in line with a half-percent hurt to GDP growth in the third quarter and fourth quarter -- but with a pick-up of roughly that order for '06," Snow said.

...a bit more where he says that "no one really knows"...

[UpInArms]

15. SnowJob pushes for permanent tax cuts to top 1%

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-09T124946Z_01_WAT003852_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW-KATRINA-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Friday that while the Bush administration still wanted its tax cuts made permanent, the priority now was dealing with the devastation left by Hurricane Katrina.

"I think tax cuts being made permanent remains an important objective but the priority now is the rebuilding of the region and the rebuilding of people's lives. So I think the Katrina aftermath and its consequences will be the legislative priority for some time to come," Snow, in Houston ahead of a visit to the hurricane-hit region by the Bush administration's economic team, told CNBC television.

He reiterated his conviction that Katrina will prove a temporary economic hit.

...more...

[UpInArms]

51. Snow sees US cutting budget gap despite hurricane (more white shit

on his upper lip)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-09T154717Z_01_N09344354_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-KATRINA-SPENDING.XML

HOUSTON, Sept. 9 (Reuters) - The rising costs of rebuilding after Hurricane Katrina are not likely to stand in the way of the Bush administration's budget deficit-cutting goals, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Friday.

"While this will elevate spending levels for '06 -- primarily because that's when the major effects will hit -- we're going to stay on track with the president's deficit-reduction program," Snow told reporters after meeting with volunteers and evacuees in Houston's Reliant Center.

Snow and U.S. House of Representatives Majority Leader Tom DeLay said spending on Katrina relief, which some estimate will top $100 billion, should not prevent Congress from extending expiring tax cuts.

"You can't attack the economy by taxing the people that are in this tent providing jobs," DeLay, a Texas Republican, told reporters in a facility housing job recruiters.

"If you raise the taxes on these people, you might not have the jobs to provide, so the tax cuts are incredibly important," DeLay said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Katrina costs NASA at least $1.1 billion (and who funds NASA?)

Why, the taxpayers!

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N98297367.htm

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla., Sept 8 (Reuters) - Hurricane Katrina will cost NASA at least $1.1 billion, the space agency said on Thursday in its first assessment of the toll at its facilities along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

The storm was likely to set back NASA's plans for another shuttle launch next year.

The hurricane hit the Michoud Assembly Facility in New Orleans, which assembles shuttle fuel tanks, and the Stennis Space Center in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, which tests shuttle rocket motors.

"You can't just watch it on TV and get a feel for the devastation that I have seen down here on the Gulf Coast," Bill Parsons, who is overseeing NASA's hurricane recovery efforts, said during a teleconference with reporters from his base at Stennis. "It's just unbelievable."

Bill Gerstenmaier, NASA's newly named associate administrator for space operations, put the preliminary damage estimate at $1.1 billion, but it was unclear whether that figure included the cost of lost production as well as damage to facilities and equipment.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Katrina may hurt job market

http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzjobs0909,0,4043455.story?coll=ny-business-leadheadlines

With an already precarious employment picture and the threat of increasing oil prices nipping at corporate budgets, Hurricane Katrina may hit the U.S. job market hard.

The nation could lose as many as 400,000 jobs through the end of this year because of the destructive storm, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. U.S. Labor Department statistics released yesterday showed that already, 10,000 people in the region filed unemployment claims last week.

Experts said that's just the beginning, since most people had been unable to file such claims. In total, weekly jobless claims fell by 1,000, to 319,000 newly laid-off workers.

"Clearly, Katrina hasn't shown up in the jobless claims yet, but it will," said Jared Bernstein, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute, a think tank in Washington D.C. "Next month, we're going to be looking at one of the largest one month negative spikes in the history of this series, going back to the '30s."

Bernstein said workers unable to qualify for unemployment insurance in the Louisiana and Mississippi areas might be able to receive separate disaster assistance, also offered by the Labor Department.

<snip>

"It'll end up being a pretty significant hit," said James Glassman, senior economist at JP Morgan Chase. "It's easy to forget that these natural disasters destroy wealth. ... You can't make that up."

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. Mismanaging Your Money: Montana cos. awarded $13.3M in 9/11 loans

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8CG9N3O0.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down&chan=db

SEP. 8 4:13 P.M. ET Forty-three Montana companies, including a Great Falls jewelry store, a Kalispell engine rebuilder and an aerial crop sprayer in Lewistown, were approved for $13.3 million in federal disaster recovery loans stemming from the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, an Associated Press review of U.S. Small Business Administration figures show.

But some business owners listed by the SBA told The Associated Press their operations had not been affected by the attacks or that they were unaware the aid they sought had anything to do with terrorism fallout. Several others said they were unaware they'd even been approved for loans.

"There wasn't any connection with the terrorist attacks," said Steve Morris, president of Planet X Corp., a Helena-based restaurant and bar company that received an $867,000 loan. "We were never aware of any loan program related to terrorist activity."

The AP review found that nationally, the government's $5 billion effort to help small businesses recover from the terrorist attacks was often so loosely managed that loans were given to companies that didn't even know they were getting terrorism assistance. Officials conceded the SBA allocated few resources to oversee the congressionally approved loan programs, leaving banks on an honor system.

Many of the loans in Montana did go to businesses that told the AP they were affected financially by the attacks in New York and Washington, D.C, and applied for the assistance offered through two special SBA loan programs.

...more...

[54anickel]

29. Too funny. And I read last night that some guy was calling for Shrub

to name a person to handle the dolling of dollars for Katrina. Another crony? I gotta find that article.....

On edit:

Here it is. The thread didn't get much discussion.

Cost of Recovery Surges, as Do Bids to Join in Effort

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1765543&mesg_id=1765543

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/09/national/nationalspecial/09costs.html?hp&ex=1126238400&en=189484d8d39d148b&ei=5094&partner=homepage

snip>

Communities will want compensation for taking in evacuees. And there will be future costs of health care, debris removal, temporary housing, clothing, vehicle replacement. Farmers from the Midwest, meanwhile, are beginning to press for emergency relief as a result of their difficulties in shipping grain through the Port of New Orleans.

Other ideas circulating through Congress that could entail significant costs include these notions:

Turning New Orleans and other cities affected by the storm into big new tax-free zones.

snip>

"We are reaching a perfect political storm," said Senator Jeff Sessions, Republican of Alabama. "We have all the earmarks of a rush to spend money that is very dangerous."

Mr. Sessions called on President Bush to appoint a person with significant business experience to oversee the spending. Contained within the spending measure approved Thursday is a provision that directs an extra $15 million to the inspector general's office in the Department of Homeland Security. The agency is also ordered to provide at least weekly reports to Congress on the use of the money.

Those safeguards, along with a decision by the administration to waive the federal law requiring that prevailing wages be paid on construction projects underwritten by federal dollars, were critical to persuading Congressional conservatives to vote for the money. It passed the House on 410-to-11 vote, with the only opposition coming from Republicans. The Senate vote was 97 to 0.

more...

[UpInArms]

30. here are some suggestions for the role:

Mr. Sessions called on President Bush to appoint a person with significant business experience to oversee the spending. Contained within the spending measure approved Thursday is a provision that directs an extra $15 million to the inspector general's office in the Department of Homeland Security. The agency is also ordered to provide at least weekly reports to Congress on the use of the money.

Bernie Ebbers
Ken Lay
Dennis Koslowski
Hank Greenberg
John Legere
Rick Wagoner
Dick Grasso

[54anickel]

33. And looking to future mismanagement....

Fannie, Freddie Give Breaks on Payments

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/08/AR2005090802016.html

snip>

Meanwhile, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Michael G. Oxley (R-Ohio) and Rep. Richard H. Baker (R-La.) are in talks with House colleagues about amending a bill regulating the companies so that areas affected by the hurricane, including those that are absorbing displaced victims, would be first to receive money from a fund for low-cost housing, committee spokeswoman Peggy Peterson said.

Katrina has created a "long-term need for affordable housing," Peterson said. "It makes sense to give greater priority to areas that need help the most."

The proposal that Baker and Oxley want to change would require that Fannie and Freddie put aside 5 percent of their after-tax profit to fund the construction or rehabilitation of housing for low-income renters and home buyers. The set-aside is part a larger bill that would tighten regulation of Fannie and Freddie following their multibillion-dollar accounting scandals.

The bill's progress to the House floor stalled this summer after a group of conservative lawmakers raised concerns about the proposed set-aside. Some worried that the two companies would use the fund to give money to political allies. Others cringed at the idea of the federal government seizing profit from private businesses.

Republican members of the Senate Banking Committee rejected the proposed fund, leaving it out of legislation the committee approved in July.

The hurricane "reinforces the reason to have such a fund," said Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), a member of the House Financial Services Committee. "Some people said, 'Well, it's going to be abused.' Well, let's see how it works in Louisiana."

more...

[donkeyotay]

44. That sounds about right

Why, they could incorporate as various entities, say GOP Crooks, GOP Crooks Offshore, Friends of George, Really Good Friends of George... set up a shell game of accounts...Reminds me of the joke about the stone-age plumber looking into a hole in the ground and saying, "Ooh, this not be cheap!"

[ozymandius]

19. pre-open blather

8:58AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Futures indications still hovering right around fair value, suggesting a flat to to slightly higher open for the cash market... Perhaps limiting some of the early upside in stocks and offsetting momentum in the Treasury market, as the 10-year note is up 8 ticks to yield 4.11%, has been a 1.2% uptick in oil prices (+0.76 at $65.25/bbl), due to ongoing worries about production in the Gulf... Bonds have actually shadowed the climb in crude, as rising oil prices may hinder economic growth

8:27AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures trading has held steady, still suggesting a slightly higher start for the cash market... A lack of market-moving data on the economic and earnings dockets may have sharpened the market's early focus on the upbeat mid-quarter report from Texas Instruments' (TXN), whose shares have reached a three-year high... Separately, McDonald's (MCD) just announced that its same-store sales rose 3.4% in August; U.S. comparable store sales grew 3.2%, while comps in Europe grew 3.6%

[UpInArms]

22. LaLa opens for the bizness with a "What? Me? Worry?"

Dow 10,619.57 +23.64 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,169.03 +3.00 (+0.14%)
S&P 500 1,233.87 +2.20 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.118 -0.21 (-0.51%)

NYSE Volume 38,204,000
Nasdaq Volume 47,306,000

[UpInArms]

23. APEC backs currency moves

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/BUSINESS/09/09/apec.meeting.reut/

SOGWIPO, South Korea (Reuters) -- Asia-Pacific nations should move towards more flexible currency regimes to help correct global imbalances and cut costly oil subsidies to nurture growth, APEC finance ministers and officials said on Friday.

Despite soaring energy costs, Asia-Pacific economic growth is expected to outpace global growth, a statement from a finance meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in South Korea said.

But further trade liberalisation and financial sector reform was needed to make the growth sustainable.

They applauded moves by China and Malaysia on July 21 to free up their exchange rates, but pushed for "greater exchange rate flexibility for some economies as appropriate."

Both countries dropped a currency peg against the dollar in favour of a managed float.

Asian countries, particularly China, have been under pressure from Western policy makers to allow their currencies to rise. Several Asian countries curb the strength of their currencies to support export-led industries.

...more...

[ozymandius]

25. Mr. Dollar, Mr. "Petro" Dollar, your days are numbered.

It has become increasingly obvious that the U.S. cannot manage its day-to-day affairs. So what incentive do other countries have to do it for us? This distancing from an America-centric economic structure speaks loudly of what significant economic areas of the world have in mind for future global economic structures.

EDIT: Did I use the word 'economic' enough?

[54anickel]

35. China's Rise. Blessing or Curse for Russia?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=apsAT7Pp3Gik

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- For most countries, China's boom raises frightening questions. Will it cost us jobs? Might it hurt our living standards? What if things go terribly wrong?

Not so in Russia. Few economies appear to have more to gain from China's rise than the country with Europe's eighth-biggest economy. Consider how Chinese demand for Russian oil is filling government coffers. It's helping Moscow maintain a budget surplus, pay down foreign debt and set the stage for more foreign direct investment.

It's also worth noting that the Russian and Chinese economies are quite complimentary. Many of the products they generate don't compete directly. That explains why officials in Moscow are less concerned about China's currency than their U.S., European and Japanese counterparts.

Yet the effects of surging oil prices, much of it owing to Chinese demand, are unmistakable in this nation of 144 million.

Petrodollars are transforming cities like Moscow, for starters. The area surrounding the Kremlin is abuzz with construction projects readying the next five-star hotel or glitzy office building that will dot the skyline. Property values are surging thanks to demand from investors in oil-rich provinces.

Booming Moscow

more...

[ozymandius]

26. LaLa land cranks up its acid trip.

10:28
Dow 10,639.48 +43.55 (+0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,169.92 +3.89 (+0.18%)
S&P 500 1,236.72 +5.05 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 41.15 -0.24 (-0.58%)
NYSE Volume 374,739,000
Nasdaq Volume 376,666,000

10:00AM: The indices hold their stance and nine of ten sectors currenly trade above the flat line... Energy (+1.0%) is the early leader, supported by crude's rise (+$0.51 at 65.00/bbl), an analyst upgrade on Devon Energy (DVN 64.59 +1.58) and an article in the Wall Street Journal that highlights refiners' extended potential profitability... Despite a 9% decline in shares of Yellow Roadway (YELL 41.92 -4.09), which warned Q3 earnings will miss forecasts due to the Katrina-effect, and a subsequent 1.4% drop in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, the Industrials sector (0.2%) hold its own...

Technology (-0.2%), meanwhile, has recently dipped into the red as Intel (INTC 25.55 -0.54) experiences some pressure on the heels of its mid-quarter update...DJTA -1.4, SOX -0.1, NYSE Adv/Dec 1790/845, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1372/972

[UpInArms]

27. Treasurys facing first weekly loss in over a month

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEE561EE4%2DD736%2D4C0E%2D997A%2DE86C09DFF3BA%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices were higher Friday after a whipsaw week set to wrap with benchmark yields higher for the first time since Aug. 5.

Treasurys gained despite more evidence the Federal Reserve was likely to raise interest rates again. Higher rates, and what are yet unknown economic imlications from Hurricane Katrina, could slow economic growth in coming quarters, boosting the appeal of longer-term bond investments.

Headlines showing a steep rise in the price of imported goods briefly sapped some Treasury market gains, but the bond market quickly assessed what was little surprise in the latest government data on import prices -- high crude-oil prices were behind the increase.

Outside of energy, imported inflation was virtually nonexistent in August, according to this report, a boon for bond investments.

The closely tracked 10-year note was last trading 1/4 higher, or $2.50 per each $1,000 in securities, at 101 3/32, yielding 4.11% vs. 4.14%.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen said late Thursday that further steps to tighten what have been historically low interest rates remain the U.S. central bank's "probable scenario," even with the many economic uncertaintites brought by Hurricane Katrina.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. Gold futures heads higher for a seventh session

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38604.4184461574-841653219&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold climbed to a high of $452.80 an ounce in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It last traded at $452.20, up $1.70. The contract has already gained over $15 since Aug. 31 and "gold is primed for new highs thanks to a weakening U.S. dollar, continuing strong physical demand and simply because relative to most other investments, it remains 'dirt' cheap," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

[54anickel]

31. Flood or wind damage? Insurers prepare to wrangle

http://www.nytimes.com/financialtimes/business/FT20050908_21670_352395.html

snip>

Much of the destruction along the Mississippi coast was wrought not by the 145mph winds but instead by the 25ft storm surge.

Mr Jarrard believes that only about 20 per cent of those homes damaged by the storm surge were insured against flooding. That means that many of Katrina's victims may not receive anything from their insurer.

"It will all come down to the question of whether the house was blown away or washed away," says Mr Jarrard. "There are going to be lots of arguments."

One of those that could lose out is Pam McNair, who lived about a quarter of a mile from the sea in Ocean Springs, near Gulfport. She was not insured against water damage because the location had never flooded in living memory. But that changed last week, when Katrina left her home waist-deep in ocean.

Next door, Bill and Kim Palumbo, did pay the additional $296 a year for flood coverage and protected their house with storm shutters. But the couple were disappointed by their insurance company's initial response following Katrina.

"They were asking if we'd taken adequate steps to protect our property, as if they were looking for excuses not to pay," says Mr Palumbo. "They refused to give us a discount when we put the shutters in yet now they are making them a condition of the policy."

more...

[UpInArms]

42. how is this supposed to work?

If the people of NO are forced away from their properties, cannot access their properties, have their properties seized (for whatever reason) - have no documentation and cannot prove what damaged their property, how will this be handled?

[ozymandius]

45. Great questions.

I wonder if we have an insurance agent lurking here who might shed some light on how the damage is assessed.

Anyone? :hi:

[UpInArms]

52. RMS to insurance corps rescue!

12:08pm 09/09/05 RMS: AT LEAST 50% OF TOTAL ECONOMIC LOSS DUE TO FLOOD

12:07pm 09/09/05 RMS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS FROM KATRINA AT $100B

12:06pm 09/09/05 RMS RAISES TOTAL ECONOMIC LOSS EST FROM KATRINA TO $125B

12:05pm 09/09/05 RMS ESTIMATES INSURED LOSSES FROM FLOOD AT $15B-$25B

12:04pm 09/09/05 RMS ESTIMATES INSURED LOSSES FROM KATRINA AT $40B-$60B

[UpInArms]

32. CEO of Berkshire's General Re may face SEC charges

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38604.4494791667-841659513&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) said Friday that the CEO of its General Re unit received a Wells Notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission. According to a press release from Berkshire, headed by famous investor Warren Buffett, "the Wells notice states that the (SEC) staff is considering recommending that the Commission bring a civil injunctive action alleging that Mr. Brandon violated or aided and abetted violations of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934." Government authorities are investigating some of Berkshire's insurance subsidiaries to see whether they helped American International Group (AIG) and other companies misstate results through the use of so-called finite reinsurance. Regulators are also probing how some Berkshire subsidiaries accounted for finite contracts themselves.

[UpInArms]

34. FOMC juggles schedule to accommodate Greenspan retirement

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38604.4584657639-841660443&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Open Market Committee has juggled its meeting schedule early next year to accommodate the expected retirement of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, the committee said Friday. Instead of its usual two-day meeting at the beginning of the year, the policy committee will meet for just one day on Jan. 31. Greenspan plans to attend the meeting. Greenspan's term on the Fed expires on Jan. 31. He cannot be reappointed, but could stay on temporarily until a successor is confirmed. The earlier schedule had the meeting on Jan. 31 and Feb. 1. "This schedule change avoids a meeting that spans the terms of two chairman," the FOMC said.

11:00am 09/09/05 GREENSPAN EXPECTS TO ATTEND JAN. 31, 2006, FOMC MEETING

11:00am 09/09/05 FOMC TO MEET JUST 1 DAY, INSTEAD OF 2, IN JANUARY 2006

11:00am 09/09/05 FOMC JUGGLES SCHEDULE TO ACCOMMODATE GREENSPAN RETIREMENT

[ozymandius]

36. Intel loses 3% of value, but "fake" food is up 2.7%.

11:14
Dow 10,631.35 +35.42 (+0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,167.82 +1.79 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,236.01 +4.34 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 41.08 -0.31 (-0.75%)
NYSE Volume 612,232,000
Nasdaq Volume 578,742,000

11:00AM: Even though shares of Intel (INTC 25.28 -0.81) continue to deteriorate and are now down about 3.0%, the Dow has held up nicely, thanks in large part to a 2.7% surge in McDonald's (MCD 34.27 +0.90), which posted solid Aug. same-store sales growth of 3.4%...

American Express (AXP) flirting with a new 52-week high, ExxonMobil (XOM 62.31 +1.01) extending its lead over GE as the largest company in the world (by market cap) and Boeing (BA 65.36 +0.77) surging 1.2%, amid reports it could avoid prosecution by reaching a $500 mln settlement with the DOJ, have also provided some early support for blue chips...NYSE Adv/Dec 1876/1009, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1451/1190

[ozymandius]

39. Woah! Hold the phone!

How does this story square with the blather?

Stocks Surge on Intel, Texas Instruments

NEW YORK - Stocks climbed higher Friday as revised forecasts from Texas Instruments Inc. and Intel Corp. overshadowed a rise in oil prices spurred by reports that Gulf coast energy production is still struggling following Hurricane Katrina.

The market reacted positively to increased third-quarter estimates at Texas Instruments and a tightened guidance range at Intel, which fueled hopes of an upswing in demand for consumer electronics and eased fears of an impending slowdown in retail spending.

Meanwhile, crude oil rose for a second day after the Energy Department said domestic energy costs this winter would be the highest in 10 years, and that at least four refineries in the Gulf of Mexico would remain closed for months. A barrel of light crude rose 36 cents to $64.85 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

more

[54anickel]

37. Heh-heh! I see my old "buddy" Mahathir is at it again....

Former Malaysian PM calls Britain 'state terrorist'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1566648,00.html?gusrc=ticker-103704

Britain's chief diplomat in Malaysia stormed out of a human rights' conference today after the UK and US were condemned as "state terrorists" by the country's retired prime minister.

Malaysia's former leader, Mahathir Mohamad, launched the scathing attack on both countries for invading Iraq, blaming them for thousands of Iraqi civilian deaths.

The British high commissioner, Bruce Cleghorn, and several British and European diplomats walked out in protest of Mr Mahathir's speech. The US embassy had not sent officers to the event.

"The British and American bomber pilots came, unopposed, safe and cosy in their state-of-the-art aircraft, pressing buttons to drop bombs, to kill and maim," Mr Mahathir said. "And these murderers, for that is what they are, would go back to celebrate 'Mission Accomplished'.

"Who are the terrorists? The people below who were bombed, or the bombers? Whose rights have been snatched away?"

more...

[KoKo]

48. Hey "54" I saw that this a.m....

thought immediately of you and was going to PM you with it. Glad you saw it. :hi:
:clapping: Mahathir! (I hope "Agent Mike" is off duty today, though) :D

[ozymandius]

38. Consumer Confidence Sinks in September

WASHINGTON - Consumer confidence tumbled in early September as Hurricane Katrina made people feel increasingly anxious about the economy's prospects and their own in the months ahead, according to figures released Friday.

The RBC CASH Index, based on polling by Ipsos, showed that consumer confidence sank to 61.5 in September, the lowest since early March 2003, when confidence dropped to 61.4 as a nervous country hunkered down for the start of the Iraq war.

September's decline — the third straight month that confidence fell — followed a reading of 72.6 in August. The showing also underscores just how much consumers' confidence has deteriorated compared with a year ago. In September 2004, consumer confidence was a robust 103.4.

-cut-

Taking the biggest hit were consumers' feelings about economic expectations over the next six months, including conditions in areas where they live or work and their own financial positions.

more

[ozymandius]

43. acid trip continues (running out of sugar cubes)

11:45
Dow 10,669.09 +73.16 (+0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,173.98 +7.95 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 1,239.67 +8.00 (+0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 41.09 -0.30 (-0.72%)
NYSE Volume 755,981,000
Nasdaq Volume 705,825,000

11:30AM: Major averages now trading near their best levels of the session, getting a lift as oil prices ($64.70/bbl +$0.21) hit session lows and unleaded gas futures ($1.99/gal -$0.04) turn negative, perhaps on further analysis of the IEA cutting its oil demand forecast for 2005 by 250K bpd... Bonds, meanwhile, which have actually shadowed the climb in crude oil, have maintained most of their gains despite the modest pullback in oil, catching a flight-to-safety bid ahead of the weekend and amid some rotation out of muni bonds due to potential defaults and credit downgrades...

The 10-year note is currently up 9 ticks to yield 4.11%, providing some support for the rate-sensitive, and more importantly, influential Financial sector...NYSE Adv/Dec 1897/1111, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1469/1250

[UpInArms]

49. Spin Report: U.S. stocks extend gains on interest-rate hopes

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC5DCC7ED%2DEDD0%2D4349%2D9047%2D89C5737BE2F2%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock gains accelerated Friday on hopes of a pause in the Federal Reserve's cycle of interest-rate increases, but shares of Intel fell amid some disappointment over its mid-quarter update.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) rose 74 points to 10,670.

The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPQ: news, chart, profile) was up 8 points at 2,174 while the S&P 500 Index ($SPX: news, chart, profile) climbed 8.5 points to 1,240.

"The near-term direction of the market is up based on the outlook for interest rates," said Michael Malone, trading analyst at SG Cowen. "The belief has grown in the market place that the Fed may take a pause here in terms of their interest-rate raising campaign."

The Federal Reserve is due to meet on September 20 to discuss whether to raise its key short-term interest rate, which currently stands at 3.5%.

Some investors think the Fed will hold back on lifting rates to keep lending cheap for companies and individuals as reconstruction efforts get underway in the Gulf region after Hurricane Katrina.

...more...

[UpInArms]

46. 11:50 EST what are they smokin'?

Dow 10,666.08 +70.15 (+0.66%)
Nasdaq 2,173.43 +7.40 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 1,239.83 +8.16 (+0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.111 -0.28 (-0.68%)

NYSE Volume 786,623,000
Nasdaq Volume 732,954,000

11:30AM: Major averages now trading near their best levels of the session, getting a lift as oil prices ($64.70/bbl +$0.21) hit session lows and unleaded gas futures ($1.99/gal -$0.04) turn negative, perhaps on further analysis of the IEA cutting its oil demand forecast for 2005 by 250K bpd... Bonds, meanwhile, which have actually shadowed the climb in crude oil, have maintained most of their gains despite the modest pullback in oil, catching a flight-to-safety bid ahead of the weekend and amid some rotation out of muni bonds due to potential defaults and credit downgrades...

The 10-year note is currently up 9 ticks to yield 4.11%, providing some support for the rate-sensitive, and more importantly, influential Financial sector...NYSE Adv/Dec 1897/1111, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1469/1250

[ozymandius]

53. Whatever it is - it's probably illegal in this country.

12:23
Dow 10,673.14 +77.21 (+0.73%)
Nasdaq 2,175.04 +9.01 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 1,240.46 +8.79 (+0.71%)
10-Yr Bond 41.16 -0.23 (-0.56%)
NYSE Volume 918,032,000
Nasdaq Volume 833,647,000

12:05PM: Heading into the noon hour, the indices continue to trade near session highs, getting a boost from a pullback in oil prices and strong sector leadership, as all ten economic sectors trend positive... Initially helping investors take some of their attention off of Hurricane Katrina and its unknown impact on the U.S. economy have been mid-quarter updates from Texas Instruments (TXN 34.00 +0.25) and Intel (INTC 25.34 -0.75)...

Although many have tagged Intel's update as a "non-event," after it merely narrowed its Q3 revenue range (to $9.8-10 bln from $9.6-10.2 bln) and gross margin guidance, participants appear to focusing more on Texas Instruments, which has hit a three-year high after raising its Q3 EPS and revenue outlooks and found additional support after several analysts hiked their price targets on the stock... However, due to Intel's 2.8% sell-off, the Tech sector has struggled to match yesterday's modest 0.2% performance as the day's worst performing sector... Meanwhile, Energy spends yet another session in the driver's seat, soaring close to 2% alongside upbeat analyst comments on DVN (+2.4%), VLO (+2.1%) and EP (+5.1%)...

While crude oil prices ($64.80/bbl +$0.31) have added some support, it is worth noting that the commodity is off session highs and that unleaded gas futures ($1.99/gal -$0.04) remains negative... Following suit, the Consumer Discretionary sector has been a winner today, up 0.7% and sporting several pockets of relative strength. Homebuilders are up 1.8% on the day, extending its 32.1% year-to-date surge. Restaurants are holding strong after McDonald's (MCD 34.35 +0.98) reported solid same-store sales results for August (+3.4%)...

[UpInArms]

50. Freddie Mac plans $11 bln-$20 bln in Q4 note sales

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-09T160602Z_01_N09172464_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FREDDIEMAC-NOTES-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the No. 2 U.S. home funding company, on Friday said it expects to issue $11 billion to $20 billion in U.S. reference notes in the fourth quarter of 2005.

Freddie Mac said $5 billion of reference notes mature in the fourth quarter.

With the amount of reference debt it expects to issue during the fourth quarter, the outstanding amount of debt will grow by $6 billion to $15 billion, excluding any debt repurchases, Freddie Mac added in a statement.

Separately, Freddie Mac announced it would sell $4 billion of new five-year reference notes and a $2 billion reopening of an existing 4 percent two-year reference note issue on Wednesday.

In October, Freddie Mac plans to tap the two- or three-year and the 10-year sectors. In November it aims to issue a two- or three-year note and in December it targets the five-year sector as well as a possible two-or three-year offering.

"The long end should be manageable without a significant change in spreads, but the short end could get congested if that market remains volatile due to Fed policy uncertainty and Home Loan returns to the global market," FTN Financial analyst Jim Vogel wrote in a client note.

...more...

[UpInArms]

55. Katrina Fed Funding - another disaster in the making?

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-09T164621Z_01_N09342048_RTRIDST_0_KATRINA-GOVERNMENT-FACTBOX.XML

excerpt:

The Federal Emergency Management Agency will receive nearly all of the funds, $50 billion; the Defense Department $1.4 billion for rescue efforts; the Army Corps of Engineers $400 million to dredge navigation channels, repair pump stations and levees in New Orleans and repairs in other Gulf states.

The legislation would allow federal workers with government-issued credit cards to buy up to $250,000 in goods or services in a single purchase, up from a $15,000 limit.

* FEMA is distributing $2,000 per household but has scrapped a plan to issue debit cards except at the Astrodome in Houston. Bush directed hurricane survivors to register for aid on a government Web site, www.fema.gov, or by phone.

* Bush has issued an executive order allowing federal contractors rebuilding in the aftermath of Katrina to pay below the prevailing wage. In a notice to Congress, Bush said the hurricane had caused "a national emergency" that permits him to act under the 1931 Davis-Bacon Act.

...more...

[UpInArms]

56. 1:01 EST numbers, blather and bye!

Dow 10,671.88 +75.95 (+0.72%)
Nasdaq 2,174.88 +8.85 (+0.41%)
S&P 500 1,240.50 +8.83 (+0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 4.112 -0.27 (-0.65%)

NYSE Volume 1,044,722,000
Nasdaq Volume 934,191,000

12:30PM: The indices inch higher still, pushed by vast leadership amongst the Dow components. Only four of the blue chip average's components are trending negative, leaving the remaining 26 on positive turf. Of them, Exxon Mobil (XOM 62.55 +1.25), American Express (AXP 58.62 +1.26), Boeing (BA 65.43 +0.84), and Proctor & Gamble (PG 56.89 +0.74) sport the strongest gains... As for the losers, Intel (INTC 25.33 -0.76) still lags and holds the Tech sector (+0.4%) in its last-place position...NYSE Adv/Dec 2145/937, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1665/1167

Gotta run - will be seeing what the average midwesterner thinks about the world over the weekend. I'll tell you about it on Monday.

:hi:

[ozymandius]

57. Bye UIA!

Have a wonderful weekend! Good luck!

Ozy :hi:

[ozymandius]

58. This is just making my pointy head spin.

1:42
Dow 10,684.06 +88.13 (+0.83%)
Nasdaq 2,175.34 +9.31 (+0.43%)
S&P 500 1,242.00 +10.33 (+0.84%)
10-Yr Bond 41.15 -0.24 (-0.58%)
NYSE Volume 1,194,475,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,038,711,000

1:30PM: The major averages march higher as crude turns negative. Off $0.39 on the day, the commodity currently sports a $64.10/bbl price tag and has catalyzed further gains across the board. Despite the reversal in oil, even the Energy sector has extended its advance, as gains in excess of 2.0% from eight of the sector's top ten components have provided leadership for the broader market... NYSE Adv/Dec 2111/1014, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1686/1186

[Roland99]

59. We should have Cat 5 hurricanes more often! BUY! BUY! BUY!

[spotbird]

60. This seems like a set up

It is impossible that things, even for corporations, are going to improve. Who thinks so?

[ozymandius]

62. Again you are spot-on spotbird with a long term approach.

I really doubt that these numbers are being driven with long-term notions. Major indicators like the CPI, PPI, consumer confidence are negative. Discretionary consumer spending is down among the middle and lower classes. Overall, this does not bode well for corporate profits that draw growth from middle America.

[ozymandius]

61. coming up on the witching hour

2:51
Dow 10,680.08 +84.15 (+0.79%)
Nasdaq 2,174.18 +8.15 (+0.38%)
S&P 500 1,242.05 +10.38 (+0.84%)
10-Yr Bond 41.23 -0.16 (-0.39%)
NYSE Volume 1,470,013,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,247,146,000

2:00PM: The Healthcare sector has turned in a respectable performance thus far(*), notching a 0.5% gain through nearly each of its groups' positive participation... To that end, biotechs have been a bright spot of the session, up 2% largely on the back of Amgen's (AMGN 84.73 +2.44) 3% jump... For its part, the stock extends the momentum demonstrated yesterday as it neared August highs...

Gilead Sciences (GILD 44.17 +1.04) has also been a strong component within the segment, rising over 1% today, helping to offset a 1.5% decline in Biogen Idec (BIIB 41.80 -0.64), which was downgraded by several brokerage firms amid restructuring-related uncertainty and limited prospects for Tysabri... On a year-to-date basis, biotechs represent one of the S&P's strongest spots, up 18.8%...NYSE Adv/Dec 2162/982, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1702/1202

*This seems to say that our healthcare costs are going up.

[ozymandius]

63. Oil Prices Sag As Traders' Worries Calm

NEW YORK - Crude-oil and gasoline prices dropped Friday as traders' worries over crude shortages, high oil demand and Tropical Storm Ophelia calmed down.

Light sweet crude for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.04 to $63.45 in afternoon trading. Nymex crude is more than $7 off its peak of $70.85 a barrel briefly reached during the day on Aug. 30, but is still almost 50 percent higher than a year ago.

On London's International Petroleum Exchange, October Brent futures fell 57 cents to $62.51 a barrel.

-cut-

"There's a little more optimism that things are getting better," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. He added that traders are reassured about oil supply as crude imports stream in, and are betting that Tropical Storm Ophelia off Florida's coast won't disrupt production.

more

[ozymandius]

65. nothing "witchy" about this hour today

All the witchiness occurred much earlier and it seems to have stuck.

3:37
Dow 10,680.87 +84.94 (+0.80%)
Nasdaq 2,175.08 +9.05 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 1,241.63 +9.96 (+0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 41.23 -0.16 (-0.39%)
NYSE Volume 1,686,524,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,422,282,000

[ozymandius]

66. closing numbers

Dow 10,678.56 +82.63 (+0.78%)
Nasdaq 2,175.51 +9.48 (+0.44%)
S&P 500 1,241.48 +9.81 (+0.80%)
10-Yr Bond 41.23 -0.16 (-0.39%)
NYSE Volume 1,972,695,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,617,559,000

blather on the way

[ozymandius]

67. blather at last. Have a great weekend!

lose: After opening on modestly higher footing, the market closed out the week with solid gains across all fronts, reemphasizing its strength and resilience in the wake of Hurricane Katrina... The S&P flirted with a four-year high, up 3.0% in the two-week period while the Dow and Nasdaq posted respective gains of 2.7% and 2.5%...

The drivers of today's session were mid-quarter updates from Texas Instruments (TXN) and Intel (INTC), delivered during Thursday's after hours session, which shifted the market's focus temporarily off of Katrina's destruction. And the absence of market-moving economic data placed even more emphasis on their updated outlooks...

Texas Instruments hit a three-year high today after it raised its Q3 EPS outlook to $0.36-0.38 (from $0.31-0.35) and revenue forecast to $3.48-3.62 bln (consensus $3.45 bln). As for Intel, although the chip titan simply trimmed its Q3 revenue range (to $9.8-10 bln from $9.6-10.2 bln) and gross margin guidance, labeled a "non-event" by many analysts, traders sent shares lower by over 3%, as raised concerns about Intel's ability to meet burgeoning chip demand overshadowed the fact that Q3 profits still remain on track with July forecasts... Despite Intel's drag-effect, the semi group held its own. Within the Tech sector, though, networking and hardware were the real standouts... The former got a lift from gains in CSCO (18.56 +0.19) and strong follow-through buying in Comverse Technology (CMVT 27.35 +0.69), which beat analysts' Q2 forecasts two days ago...

[dweller]

68. now, this is interesting ... no?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4719415

http://www.freemarketnews.com/nview.php?nseq=787

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=31493896&brk=1


PPT expose

dp

[54anickel]

69. Came up here on Wed. As Ozy said, the stories of intervention and

the PPT have been covered many times over.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1759901#1760965

John Embry is one of the best minds when it comes to PM and commodity markets. He's usually not as "conspiracy" minded as GATA can sometimes seem to be.

Raygun created the President's Working Group (PPT) after the 87 crash. Let's face it, once a gov't is given a method to intervene they can't help themselves. So, what may have started as a good idea to stabilize the markets has been over used and abused by the gov't. It's inevitable, it's the nature of gov't.

The full report would make an interesting read. Wonder if it touches on the "Stabilization Funds" and some of the central bank hanky-panky that was going on during the Asia crisis?