http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/refresh/KATRINA+shtml/Tuesday August 23, 2005
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
25.1N 77.7W 52 X X X 52 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 2 9 11
25.7N 78.5W 36 1 X X 37 SAVANNAH GA X X X 6 6
26.1N 79.5W 18 6 1 1 26 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3
MUCF 221N 805W X 1 X 3 4 KEY WEST FL 1 5 3 5 14
MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X 10 4 4 18
MUHA 230N 824W X 1 1 4 6 FT MYERS FL X 8 5 5 18
MYSM 241N 745W 47 X X X 47 VENICE FL X 4 7 6 17
MYEG 235N 758W 99 X X X 99 TAMPA FL X 2 7 7 16
MYAK 241N 776W 51 X X X 51 CEDAR KEY FL X X 5 9 14
MYNN 251N 775W 54 X X X 54 ST MARKS FL X X 1 8 9
MYGF 266N 787W 21 5 1 X 27 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 8 9
MARATHON FL 4 7 2 3 16 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 7 7
MIAMI FL 9 9 2 2 22 PENSACOLA FL X X X 4 4
W PALM BEACH FL 4 13 3 2 22 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2
FT PIERCE FL 1 11 5 3 20 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 9 10
COCOA BEACH FL X 7 6 6 19 GULF 29N 87W X X X 6 6
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 7 7 15 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/prb/al122005.prblty.002.shtml?AT 11 PM EDT... 0300Z... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.002.shtml?Wednesday August 24, 2005
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.0N 79.5W 55 X X X 55 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2
26.0N 80.5W 30 1 X 1 32 KEY WEST FL 4 9 2 2 17
26.3N 81.5W 14 9 1 1 25 MARCO ISLAND FL 11 10 1 2 24
MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 1 2 FT MYERS FL 8 11 3 1 23
MUSN 216N 826W X X 1 1 2 VENICE FL 1 12 5 3 21
MUHA 230N 824W X 3 2 2 7 TAMPA FL 1 8 6 4 19
MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 7 8 16
MYAK 241N 776W 1 X 1 2 4 ST MARKS FL X X 1 10 11
MYNN 251N 775W 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 10 11
MYGF 266N 787W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 9 9
MARATHON FL 11 6 1 1 19 PENSACOLA FL X X X 6 6
MIAMI FL 32 1 X X 33 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4
W PALM BEACH FL 40 X X X 40 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4
FT PIERCE FL 28 1 1 X 30 BURAS LA X X X 4 4
COCOA BEACH FL 15 6 1 2 24 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3
DAYTONA BEACH FL 2 8 5 4 19 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 11 13
JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 4 8 13 GULF 29N 87W X X X 9 9
SAVANNAH GA X X 1 6 7 GULF 28N 89W X X X 6 6
CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 91W X X X 3 3
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/prb/al122005.prblty.006.shtml?THE 2300Z RECONNAISSANCE FIX AND RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND THE
BAHAMAS INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FORCE KATRINA TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY FRIDAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS...BRINGS
THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD. BEYOND THREE DAYS...WHEN KATRINA IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...SUGGESTING TRACKS WHICH COVER THE COAST FROM
MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS KATRINA NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING
TROUGH...ON A TRACK WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST IS RATHER DIFFICULT SINCE ONE OF THE MORE
RELIABLE MODELS...THE GFS...SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE BARELY TOUCHES
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD....WHILE THE
OUTSTANDING GFDL MOVES KATRINA SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AS A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. THE GFDL
SCENARIO WOULD BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS APPEARS TO
BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME BUT BECAUSE OF THE GOOD PAST
PERFORMANCE OF THIS MODEL...WE MUST PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al122005.discus.006.shtml?...KATRINA HEADING WESTWARD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE WARNINGS
IN EFFECT...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.006.shtml?Thursday August 25, 2005
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
25.5N 83.0W 45 X X X 45 FT MYERS FL 56 X X X 56
26.0N 84.0W 31 X 1 X 32 VENICE FL 37 X X X 37
26.5N 84.5W 22 3 1 1 27 TAMPA FL 19 2 2 1 24
MUSN 216N 826W X 1 X 1 2 CEDAR KEY FL 5 8 4 3 20
MUHA 230N 824W 7 2 1 X 10 ST MARKS FL X 5 5 7 17
MUAN 219N 850W X 1 1 2 4 APALACHICOLA FL X 6 6 6 18
MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 3 4 PANAMA CITY FL X 3 5 8 16
MARATHON FL 53 X X X 53 PENSACOLA FL X X 2 11 13
MIAMI FL 99 X X X 99 MOBILE AL X X 1 9 10
W PALM BEACH FL 99 X X X 99 GULFPORT MS X X X 9 9
FT PIERCE FL 35 X X X 35 BURAS LA X X X 9 9
COCOA BEACH FL 4 3 3 4 14 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 7 7
DAYTONA BEACH FL 1 4 4 5 14 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 4 4
JACKSONVILLE FL X 2 5 6 13 GULF 29N 85W 2 8 5 5 20
SAVANNAH GA X X 1 7 8 GULF 29N 87W X 2 5 9 16
CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 89W X X 1 10 11
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W X X X 6 6
KEY WEST FL 40 1 X X 41 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2
MARCO ISLAND FL 99 X X X 99
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/prb/al122005.prblty.010.shtml?ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al122005.discus.010.shtml?A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.010.shtml?Friday August 26, 2005
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
25.0N 86.0W 46 X X X 46 BURAS LA X 2 11 6 19
26.0N 87.5W 20 10 X X 30 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 8 9 17
27.0N 89.0W 1 15 6 1 23 NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 12 14
MUAN 219N 850W 2 X X X 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 9 9
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X X 7 7
VENICE FL 1 1 X 1 3 FREEPORT TX X X X 5 5
TAMPA FL X 1 1 1 3 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3
CEDAR KEY FL X 1 1 3 5 GULF 29N 85W 1 9 3 2 15
ST MARKS FL X 1 4 4 9 GULF 29N 87W 1 13 5 2 21
APALACHICOLA FL X 5 5 3 13 GULF 28N 89W X 11 9 2 22
PANAMA CITY FL X 5 6 4 15 GULF 28N 91W X 1 11 5 17
PENSACOLA FL X 2 9 6 17 GULF 28N 93W X X 2 9 11
MOBILE AL X 1 8 8 17 GULF 28N 95W X X X 6 6
GULFPORT MS X 1 8 9 18 GULF 27N 96W X X X 3 3
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/prb/al122005.prblty.015.shtml?KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE STUBBORNLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
250 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF A VERY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER MEAN HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS. IN FACT...DATA FROM THE
NOAA JET JUST RELAYED BY THE METEOROLOGIST ONBOARD INDICATE THAT
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BE VERY STRONG. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND LEAVE A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. KATRINA WILL LIKELY TAKE THAT OPPORTUNITY AND
BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE INTENSE
HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS OR SO.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST
OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN
THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS
CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al122005.discus.015.shtml?...STUBBORN KATRINA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...EXPECTED
TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.015.shtml?Saturday August 27, 2005
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
27.0N 89.0W 40 X X X 40 BURAS LA 3 23 1 X 27
29.0N 89.8W 7 21 1 X 29 NEW ORLEANS LA X 23 3 X 26
31.0N 89.8W X 12 9 1 22 NEW IBERIA LA X 18 4 1 23
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 PORT ARTHUR TX X 7 6 1 14
SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 GALVESTON TX X 4 5 1 10
CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 FREEPORT TX X 2 3 2 7
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X 1 X 2 3
CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 29N 85W 1 4 3 1 9
ST MARKS FL X 1 3 3 7 GULF 29N 87W 6 12 1 X 19
APALACHICOLA FL X 3 5 1 9 GULF 28N 89W 25 6 X X 31
PANAMA CITY FL X 5 5 2 12 GULF 28N 91W 13 14 X X 27
PENSACOLA FL X 9 7 1 17 GULF 28N 93W 2 12 1 1 16
MOBILE AL X 12 7 1 20 GULF 28N 95W X 3 2 X 5
GULFPORT MS X 17 6 X 23
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/prb/al122005.prblty.019.shtml?IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AND LEAVES A WEAKNESS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...AND A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD RESULT IN A PATTERN THAT
FORCES KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY
CLOSELY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al122005.discus.019.shtml?...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA THREATENS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...A HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.019.shtml?Sunday August 28, 2005
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
31.8N 89.5W 43 2 X X 45 NANTUCKET MA X X X 2 2
34.8N 88.1W 3 30 1 X 34 HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2
37.7N 85.9W X 3 20 1 24 BOSTON MA X X X 2 2
CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 PORTLAND ME X X X 2 2
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 PANAMA CITY FL 1 1 X X 2
WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 PENSACOLA FL 18 3 1 X 22
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2 MOBILE AL 40 X X X 40
CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS 54 X X X 54
NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4 BURAS LA 77 X X X 77
OCEAN CITY MD X X X 5 5 NEW ORLEANS LA 59 X X X 59
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 5 5 NEW IBERIA LA 28 1 X X 29
NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 5 5 GULF 29N 87W 8 2 X X 10
MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W 99 X X X 99
PROVIDENCE RI X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 91W 47 X X X 47
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/prb/al122005.prblty.025.shtml?THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODEST CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF KATRINA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT AN OUTER
EYEWALL IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES...AND THE LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW
A LESS WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL WITH MORE EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING.
THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO REPORTED AN EROSION OF THE EYEWALL
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAKENING OF KATRINA PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALL THIS IS
RELATIVE...HOWEVER...AND KATRINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OF AT
LEAST CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST. AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ALL GOOD NEWS...AS THEY ARE
GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD...SO THAT
EVEN AS KATRINA WEAKENS THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE AREA THAT
EXPERIENCES MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al122005.discus.025.shtml?...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.025.shtml?