Dean Leads Kerry by 14 in N.H. Poll

[sleipnir]

"WASHINGTON - Howard Dean holds a double-digit lead over rival John Kerry in a New Hampshire poll of likely voters in the state's Democratic presidential primary."

"Dean had the support of 33 percent to Kerry's 19 percent in the Franklin Pierce College poll conducted Oct. 13-15."

"Wesley Clark at 7 percent, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt 4 percent, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards 4 percent and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman 3 percent."

"Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich had the support of 1 percent, and Carol Moseley Braun and Al Sharpton were at 0 percent."

"The poll of 600 Democrats and independents had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20031021/ap_on_el_pr/new_hampshire_poll_5



I don't really trust polls from Fisher Price University, but this is amazing news. I can't believe it, but it seems to be the trend Dean is stomping up a storm in NH.

Clark at 7%? Lieberman at 3%, both skipping Iowa? Could this be trouble? Or will a change in numbers happen now they can focus more on NH? I feel if you can't finish in the top two in Iowa and NH, you don't deserve to be President.

[LizW]

1. Clark and Lieberman ar skipping NH too

aren't they?

[sleipnir]

3. No, the reverse

"Lieberman, Clark Ditch Iowa To Focus On New Hampshire"

http://www.thechamplainchannel.com/wnne/2567611/detail.html

"If you don't do well in New Hampshire -- that means the intense media blitz that occurs around Iowa and New Hampshire -- basically you're out of the story," Scala said"

"Opting out of Iowa, the candidates are increasing the pressure to do well in New Hampshire, Scala said. It's a strategy that has paid off for some candidates in the past"

"Democrat Bill Clinton conceded Iowa in 1992 to Iowa's Tom Harkin, and skipping Iowa helped John McCain stun George Bush in New Hampshire in 2000."

Who knows, but if the poll trends don't change, I think it spells D O O M for Clark/Lieberman...It's a gamble, I think it's identical to going "all in" in poker, they've got to get more chips, but if the NH gamble fails, they're both out.

[Julien Sorel]

4. It's not a trend.

The NH nmbers haven't moved outside the MOE since about a week after Clark declared. A trend would involve the numbers actually moving in one direction or another.

[sleipnir]

5. Not true

The polls are moving in favor of Dean. It's a markable trend. The article even states that the last poll in July had Dean/Kerry in a dead-heat. Polls are showing that Dean is moving ahead of the other candidates each month (with the exception of UnivHN), with the rest of the pack treading water in MOE.

[Voltaire99]

2. Three ways to destroy Dean

It's far too early to say all bets are off, but it's also apparent that the Dean phenomenon is far from assured victory. I see three main ways to thwart his nomination, all retributive.

Worst of all for Dean, the Democratic leadership hates him for challenging their turgid reign of accomodation and appeasement. He could be derailed from above. Every closet has a skeleton, remember.

And from sideways: Lieberman has already paved the way for a treasonous revolt (his infamous threat that Democrats "don't deserve to win" if they go liberal), and Kerry and Gephardt are doing their best to dish the dirt. They may hang around longer than usual to see if Dean is crushed for disobedience, which they'll assist with barely concealed relish.

There's a third way Dean could be destroyed. He's committing the cardinal sin of Al Gore: not sucking up to the US media. Gore's villification was, among other things, an assertion of the jackal press's primacy. For a rather incisive view of this process, see Gene Lyons' piece in the October issue of Harper's ("Notes on Our Decadent Press").

All of these methods will produce a sizable backlash against Democrats if they go into 2004 having destroyed their reform candidate and offering a rehash of their present middling leadership's positions. It's our election to lose.

[Guaranteed]

6. All true, but he's just gotta come out swinging.

The more aggressive he is, the better. He can absolutely destroy Bush if he has the cajones to do it- Bush has set himself up for a huge fall. If Dean takes the initiative and keeps it, I think he'll be fine. It could even be a landslide.