STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 14 September

[ozymandius]

Wednesday September 14, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 129 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 268 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 332 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1389
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 13, 2005

Dow... 10,597.44 -85.50 (-0.80%)
Nasdaq... 2,171.75 -11.08 (-0.51%)
S&P 500... 1,231.20 -9.36 (-0.75%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.13% -0.04 (-0.84%)
Gold future... 450.00 -3.70 (-0.82%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif - WEEKLY CHARTS

SUMMARY

Last week we said:

"The indices followed their historical pattern declining into Tuesday, and then rallying to end the week with gains, despite some minor losses on Friday. From a technical point of view, we got a total "mixed bag." Most indicators are either a handful of points below or above their respective zero lines implying that the odds favoring either higher or lower prices are almost even, and thus, we can't dismiss either outcome.

Based on the patterns exhibited by price and by the technical indicators, the two most probable scenarios are illustrated in the two graphs below. Keep in mind that the odds favoring either scenario are roughly even, therefore, we need to pay attention to daily resistance at 1230 and daily support at 1210. If the SP is below 1210 by mid-week, then more than likely scenario #1 will end up playing out. Conversely, if the SP is above 1230 by mid-week, then more than likely scenario #2 will end up playing out."

-cut-

Next week we have options expiration, and usually, options expiration weeks tend to have a positive bias. In addition, the price pattern associated with a positive options expiration week is characterized by weakness on Monday and Tuesday, followed by strength Wednesday thru Friday. Therefore, early on we will be looking for confirmation that the week will turn out to be a typical options expiration week. If we have weakness on Monday and Tuesday but price is contained above support, we will expect the rally to resume by Wednesday and last until Friday. On the other hand, if the indices rally on Monday and Tuesday, it would imply that we are dealing with an "atypical" options expiration week, and thus, we will re-evaluate as we go based on the technical readings that are associated with the rally.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil holds above $63, eyes on stock data

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher over $63 on Wednesday as traders expected U.S. stockpiles to fall in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, but they remained wary too of further signs of slowing global energy demand growth.

Weekly data from the world's top oil consumer is expected to show crude and gasoline inventories draining after Katrina, but distillate supplies for winter heating declining only modestly.

-cut-

Evidence of waning demand growth due to soaring prices has helped drag crude down about 11 percent from its $70.85 record a fortnight ago.

"The demand side of the oil equation is weakening, with the U.S. standing as the last bastion of growth," said a report by Credit Suisse First Boston.

more

[UpInArms]

23. Oil Rises Before Report Expected to Show Drop in U.S. Supplies

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=apQAS9RgEzPk&refer=germany

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for the first day in four in New York before a report expected to show U.S. fuel stockpiles fell last week as oil companies and refiners strained to restore output lost to Hurricane Katrina.

Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico was down 56 percent because of damage from last month's storm, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said yesterday. U.S. crude oil inventories probably fell 2 million barrels last week, according to the median forecast from a Bloomberg survey of 14 analysts. Gasoline supplies probably fell 2.2 million barrels.

``Maybe we'll have bullish statistics tonight and people will start buying again,'' said Naohiro Niimura, vice-president of derivative products at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Tokyo ``I'm looking for crude to rise back to $67.''

Crude oil for October rose as much as 26 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $63.37 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $63.36 a barrel at 2:45 p.m. Singapore time.

<snip>

U.S. gasoline supplies in the week ended Sept. 2 were 6.8 percent lower than a year earlier, having fallen for 10 straight weeks. Supplies of distillate, which include diesel and heating oil probably fell 150,000 barrels last week, according to the analyst survey. Supplies the week before were up 6 percent from a year earlier.

<snip>

Most Americans expect to suffer financially because of Katrina, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey released yesterday. Forty-three percent expect to be hurt ``a lot,'' with 37 percent saying ``a little,'' according to the poll of more than 1,000 people taken Sept. 8-11.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. DOE okays sale of 11 million barrels from reserve

9:08am 09/14/05 ENERGY DEPT. OKS SALE OF 11 MILLION BARRELS RESERVE OIL

I wonder who it is being sold to and at what price?

[UpInArms]

42. DOE Petroleum Inventory Report - Crude Stocks Down 6.6 Million bbls

10:31am 09/14/05 OCT CRUDE CLIMBS 89C TO $64/BRL ON SUPPLY FALL

10:31am 09/14/05 U.S. CRUDE STKS DOWN 6.6 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am 09/14/05 U.S. GASOLINE STKS UP 1.9 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am 09/14/05 U.S. DISTILLATE STKS DOWN 1.1 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

[UpInArms]

72. Crude Oil closes at $65.09 bbl

3:03pm 09/14/05 OCT CRUDE CLOSES AT A MORE THAN ONE-WEEK HIGH

3:03pm 09/14/05 OCT CRUDE UP $1.98 TO CLOSE AT $65.09/BRL IN NY

3:03pm 09/14/05 OCT UNLEADED GAS ADDS 2.4% TO CLOSE AT $1.9374/GAL

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-14T184505Z_01_N14667817_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-9.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell further on Wednesday after a jump of nearly $2 in the price of oil, which fueled worries about a slowdown in consumer spending and weaker corporate profit growth.

Tech stocks also extended losses, with an unfavorable report on Chinese Web search engine Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU.O: Quote, Profile, Research) weighing on shares of other Internet companies.

"We had the Nasdaq acting poorly all day, even when the Dow and the S&P were doing well all day," said Elliot Spar, market strategist with Ryan Beck & Co. "But breadth has gotten increasingly negative. We are just seeing technical action here and higher oil is just exacerbating the move."

Spar said investors were also nervous ahead of Thursday's data on consumer prices.

...more...

[ozymandius]

3. Gas Costs Spur Aug. Wholesale Inflation

WASHINGTON - Surging costs for gasoline and other energy products fueled inflation at the wholesale level in August, pressure that is expected to become even more intense once the full impact of Hurricane Katrina is felt.

The Labor Department said its Producer Price Index, which measures inflation before it reaches the consumer, jumped a sharp 0.6 percent in August following an even bigger 1 percent increase in July.

In other economic news, the Commerce Department reported that oil imports hit an all-time high in July and the trade gap with China also set a record. However, the overall trade deficit improved slightly to $57.9 billion as exports rose and imports outside of energy fell.

-cut-

Analysts are split on whether the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates at its meeting next week. Some suggest that the Fed may pause to give policymakers time to assess how much of a jolt the economy will receive from Katrina. Other economists believe the Fed will deliver an 11th quarter-point rate increase out of concern that the higher interest rates are needed to combat rising inflation pressures.

more...

[JNelson6563]

4. Inventory numbers today

I think things might go south today.

BTW, I nominated the STW thread today. You guys should be on the front page every day.

I love my fellow Marketeers! Thanks for posting all this great stuff every day.

:toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

15. G'mornin Julie!

Glad to see you here :hi:

We miss your daily additions - what do you think about the treasury markets these days? (insights always welcome!)

Hope all is well with you and yours

:grouphug:

[JNelson6563]

48. Hi UIA!

I think many are answering the siren song of Treasuries....it sounds like this "Secuuurrriiiiittttyyyyyyyyyy!!!!!" heh

All is going well with the overthrow efforts in the north. Harder to turn around a 14 county chunk than it was my home county though! Whew! Lots of work and lots of driving. Slowly we see progress. Our second county recently opened their year-round store front office, two down twelve to go. :toast:

Good to see you too UIA, thanks for the kind words and thanks for all the great stuff on the SWT!!

:toast: Julie

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.61 Change -0.14 (-0.16%)

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: Will Key Dollar Data Disappoint?

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3449&Itemid=39

US Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG) (12:30GMT, 8:30EDT)
Consensus: -1.4%
Previous: 1.8%

Outlook: After two months of stellar performance, the headline figure of the advanced retail sales report is expected to flip to a figure of -1.4%, which would be the biggest fall in 29 months. After auto discounts opened the floodgates on sales in July, it is expected that people bought a lower amount of cars in August, though the discounts will not end until October 3rd. As for gasoline sales, prices rose exorbitantly in August and the average had hit a high of $3.07 a gallon by the first week of September due to Hurricane Katrina, possibly created a positive offsetting effect in tomorrow’s report. Previously released vehicle sales and individual retailers’ sales have already shown that August results were lower than expected. Conversely, August’s SpendingPulse report, a service provided by MasterCard Advisors, showed that national retail sales had actually grown by 1.0% while 0.4% of this was due to the shock in gasoline prices in the days following Katrina. Although data provided by private industry is often different from government data, this number certainly spurs uncertainty going into the Census Bureau’s report.

Previous: Retail sales surged 1.8% from June on increased purchases of autos and gasoline while the core measure, excluding autos, rose by a modest 0.3%. This follows a 1.7% total increase in June and the corresponding core growth of 0.9%. Sales at motor vehicle dealerships rose by over $3 billion or 7.3% in the month as the Big 3 North American car manufacturers offered their employee discount prices to all customers. With the average retail regular gas price rising to what was, at the time, an all-time high of $2.32 a gallon by mid-July, gasoline station sales accelerated to a 2.4% monthly gain compared to June’s 2.0%. Further refining the data, if gasoline is excluded from the figures, there is no change registered between June and July while this measure had achieved 0.8% growth between the prior two months. The headline figure is good news for third-quarter personal consumption and GDP since retail sales make up nearly half of all consumer spending. However, the underlying details prove worrisome for months to come as the effect of the auto discounts will disappear with the promotions ending by early October.


US Industrial Production (AUG) (13:15GMT, 9:15EDT)
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: 0.1%

Outlook: Industrial production is expected to have accelerated to a 0.3% gain in August after a smaller 0.1% increase in July. Auto production probably increased this month after falling 2.9% in July while sales rose 7.3%. With inventories pared down further than intended by the Big 3 manufacturers’ employee discount programs, production growth will have to resume this month to make up for the greater-than-forecast demand. Mining output probably increased after June’s hurricane disruption, according to the Department of Energy, coal production surged 6.5% in the month after falling by a smaller amount in June, petroleum production increased and natural gas output also rose marginally. Distortions from shutdowns related to Hurricane Katrina will mostly be seen in September’s data as August’s survey period only contained 3 days of the disruption. On the whole, production is still growing, but the trend is flattening out now and we may not see the same performance from earlier this year going forward, especially as energy prices continue to restrict output.

Previous: In July, both manufacturing and industrial production only rose by 0.1% after climbing by 0.8% in June. Auto production was cut by nearly 3% as manufacturers tried to sell off the previous months’ accumulation of inventory. Durable goods output fell by 1.6% while orders had unexpectedly increased in the month while stockpiles of these consumer goods were also pared down. With total production of consumer goods falling by half a percent in the month, what little amount of production growth that occurred was heavily supported by business equipment output, which grew 1.3% in the month. Meanwhile, being in the hurricane season now also means that Gulf of Mexico oil and gas platforms experienced shutdowns, which contributed to the 1.3% drop in mining output, the largest decline since last September. Despite the overall disappointment in the figure, both national and regional ISMs for July point to resumed growth as both indices for production and new orders continue to grow.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. a peek at the tumbling buck

Last trade 87.38 Change -0.37 (-0.42%)

Settle 87.75 Settle Time 23:36

Open 87.61 Previous Close 87.75

High 87.76 Low 87.38

Last tick: 2005-09-14 08:13:37 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[ret5hd]

37. A Question for "Dollar Watchers"...

maybe NOBODY knows, but...

in a "realistic" scenario of the world losing confidence in the dollar and all our "friends" start dumping the dollar (saudis, china, etc)...what is the expected worth of the dollar? In relation to what? Gold? Euro?

Or is this a case of a person ignorantly (admittedly) asking a meaningless question? If so, what is the proper question?

[UpInArms]

38. lots of unknowns in all of it

but there are a couple of "likely" scenarios:

1) Oil can be priced in any currency, but most likely to be valued by a "basket" - (but purchased in euros?) ergo, the dominance of the dollar will wane and we (the US will have to exchange our dollars for another currency in order to purchase petroleum.

2) If countries do not continue to buy our treasury notes (now needing in excess of $2 billion per day, the interest rates will have to skyrocket in order to attract buyers - we, here in the US will possibly end up with hyperinflation.

Those are probably worst case scenarios - and obviously I am not wishing for such things to occur.

[UpInArms]

6. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Sep 14	8:30 AM	Retail Sales		Aug	-	-1.5%	-1.4%	1.8%	-	
Sep 14	8:30 AM	Retail Sales ex-auto	Aug	-	0.8%	0.5%	0.3%	-	
Sep 14	9:15 AM	Capacity Utilization	Aug	-	80.0%	79.9%	79.7%	-	
Sep 14	9:15 AM	Industrial Production	Aug	-	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	-

[UpInArms]

14. OUCH! U.S. retail sales plunge 2.1% in Aug.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38609.3541942708-842285336&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales fell 2.1% in August, the biggest decline in nearly four years as auto sales fell a record 12%, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 1%, with half of the increase due to higher sales of gasoline, reflecting higher prices. Excluding both autos and gas, retail sales increased 0.5%, with gains across most store types. Economists were expecting a 1.2% decline. Excluding autos, sales were expected to rise 0.6%.

8:30am 09/14/05 BIGGEST DECLINE IN RETAIL SALES SINCE NOV. 2001

8:30am 09/14/05 U.S. RETAIL SALES UP 7.9% YEAR-ON-YEAR

8:30am 09/14/05 U.S. AUG. GASOLINE SALES RISE 4.4%

8:30am 09/14/05 U.S. AUG. AUTO SALES FALL RECORD 12%

8:30am 09/14/05 U.S. AUG. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS, EX-GAS UP 0.5%

8:30am 09/14/05 U.S. AUG. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 1% VS. 0.6% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

16. US retail sales drop sharply in August

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-09-14T122953Z_01_N13591799_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-RETAIL-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales dropped by a larger-than-expected 2.1 percent in August, the sharpest drop in almost four years, after car purchases collapsed from July's near-record level, government data showed on Wednesday.

Sales excluding autos were buoyed by high gasoline prices, however, climbing a stronger-than-expected 1.0 percent.

The Commerce Department said it could not quantify the impact of Hurricane Katrina but said it would have been small because the storm-affected region accounted for little more than 1 percent of total national sales.

"Moreover, the effect of the hurricane on the national retail sales estimates in August would be much less, since the hurricane only impacted the last few days of August," the department said in a statement, noting that it had to estimate some of the results for August because some firms had problems in reporting.

<snip>

But much of the rise was a pure price effect after gasoline spiked higher, a gain that continued into September after the hurricane drove gasoline prices well above $3 a gallon in many places.

...more...

[54anickel]

20. HA! That's because all the kiddies were waiting to see what Buffy and

Billie would be wearing to school this year. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

28. U.S. industrial production up 0.1 pct in August

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-09-14T131504Z_01_N14637320_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-PRODUCTION-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Output from U.S. factories, mines and utilities rose a smaller-than-expected 0.1 percent in August as Hurricane Katrina severely curtailed production at the end of the month, a Federal Reserve report showed on Wednesday.

Businesses ran at an operating rate of 79.8 percent, in line with expectations, the Fed report indicated.

The hurricane caused mining output to fall 0.6 percent and utilities output to slide by 0.5 percent.

Meanwhile, manufacturing production rose 0.3 percent after a 0.1 percent gain the month before. Manufacturing capacity utilization was its highest level since November 2000.

The rate of change in total industrial production in August was reduced by an estimated 0.3 percentage point because of disruptions related to the storm, the Fed said. Production declines were most evident in oil and gas extraction, industrial chemicals manufacturing, and petroleum refining.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. Katrina hits industrial output in August

(Huh? How did Katrina, which hit 8/30, impair this number when all other numbers exclude Katrina?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BFDC0FF35%2DDAB9%2D487A%2D810F%2D7B5D61EA0F8A%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Hurricane Katrina curtailed U.S. industrial output in August, the Federal Reserve said.

U.S. industrial production rose 0.1% in August, the Fed reported Wednesday.

The gain in industrial output in August was below Wall Street forecasts. Economists had expected production to rise 0.2% in the month. See Economic Calendar.

Overall, the hurricane reduced the rate of change in total industrial production by an estimated 0.3 percentage points, the Fed said.


<snipping to report details>

Overall, production was down 0.1% excluding motor vehicles and parts.

Motor vehicle production rose 3.7% in August after falling 1.9 in July.

Output of utilities fell 0.5%. in August. Output of mining fell 0.6%.

High-tech industry output rose 1.5% following a 2.3% rise in July.

The output of consumer goods rose 0.3% in August after falling 0.5% in July. Output of consumer durable goods rose a sharp 2.8%.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. Capacity Utilization at 79.8% (no change)

9:15am 09/14/05 U.S. AUG. CAPACITY UTILIZATION 79.8% VS REV 79.8% IN JULY

[UpInArms]

7. US home mortgages fell last week as rates rose

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050914:MTFH04509_2005-09-14_11-14-23_N14604884:1

NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Applications for U.S. residential mortgages fell last week as higher interest rates deterred borrowers from refinancing their existing home loans, an industry trade group's figures showed on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of total mortgage applications for home purchase and refinancing loans fell 1.4 percent to 760.6 in the week ended Sept. 9. The index rose 6.8 percent in the previous week.

The MBA's purchase index rose 2.9 percent to 513.4, adding to the previous week's 6.1 percent gain -- the highest level of activity since the week ended July 1 when it hit 520.8.

The refinancing index fell 6.7 percent to 2,198.7, nearly erasing the previous week's 7.7 percent gain.

The indexes were all seasonally adjusted, the MBA said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

74. San Francisco-area home prices rise to new high

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-14T190854Z_01_N14429873_RTRIDST_0_PROPERTY-SANFRANCISCO-UPDATE-1.XML

SAN FRANCISCO, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Spurred by strong demand and continued low mortgage interest rates, prices paid for homes in the San Francisco Bay area rose to a new high in August and home sales in the region remained at near-record levels, according to a report released on Wednesday.

The median price paid for a home in the nine-county region, which includes San Francisco and the Silicon Valley high-technology hub, rose to $619,000 in August, an increase of 2.1 percent from July and a 19-percent jump from a year earlier, according to the report by DataQuick Information Systems.

Home prices in the San Francisco Bay area, which boasts one of the strongest housing markets in the United States despite the economic shock to the region from a prolonged high-tech slump, have posted double-digit percentage increases each month for 21 consecutive months, the La Jolla, California-based real estate information service noted.

According to DataQuick, 12,154 new and resale houses and condominiums sold in the San Francisco Bay area last month, marking an increase of 6.0 percent from the prior month and a decrease of 4.1 percent from a year earlier.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. Wal-Mart hit by 'sweatshop' claim

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4243676.stm

US retail giant Wal-Mart has been hit with a lawsuit that claims it ignores sweatshop conditions at many of its suppliers' factories around the world.

The class-action suit has been filed in Los Angeles on behalf of 15 workers in Bangladesh, Swaziland, Indonesia, China and Nicaragua.

Each claims they were paid less than the minimum wage and not given overtime payments. Some say they were beaten.

Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, said it was looking into the matter.

...more...

and here's the USAToday's sanitized version:

Wal-Mart faces a new class action lawsuit

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/retail/2005-09-13-walmart-lawsuit_x.htm

Wal-Mart (WMT) became the target of another class-action lawsuit Tuesday, filed by advocates for workers in six countries who charged the world's largest retailer overlooks labor abuse at factories run by its suppliers.

The lawsuit, filed in California Superior Court in Los Angeles, lists as plaintiffs 15 workers in Bangladesh, Swaziland, Indonesia, China and Nicaragua.

The lawsuit claims they were paid below minimum wage in their country, forced to work unpaid overtime and in some cases even endured beatings by supervisors. It asserts that Wal-Mart failed to enforce worker treatment provisions of its contracts with suppliers.

The lawsuit also lists four California plaintiffs, including two unionized workers at Kroger unit Ralphs and at Safeway grocery stores, who claim Wal-Mart's entry into Southern California forced their employers to reduce pay and benefits.

The lawsuit could cover a class of anywhere from 100,000 to 500,000 workers, according to attorney Terry Collingsworth of the International Labor Rights Fund, which represents the plaintiffs.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. Canada may pass on fuel tax windfall to provinces

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-09-13T210925Z_01_N13583866_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CANADA-TAXES.XML

MONTREAL, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Canada's finance minister said on Tuesday the federal government could return its tax windfall from surging fuel prices to the country's provinces.

"We are looking at what our options might be to be of assistance to consumers," Ralph Goodale told reporters after a luncheon speech.

One option already tried would be to redirect any incremental federal sales taxes garnered from the surge in gasoline prices back to the provinces.

Last year, Ottawa redirected some C$150 million ($127 million) of extra sales tax revenue from a spike in gasoline prices to the provincial governments, to be used for purchases of medical equipment, Goodale said.

...more...

See how responsible governments behave?

[54anickel]

10. Morning Ozy, UIA and All. Great toon - too true!!! My time is short

today. This is the big day - gotta get ready for the wedding! Sheesh, I'm actually getting nervous now.

[UpInArms]

12. Hi 54anickel!

Wedding butterflies are inevitable :scared: :D

Hope all goes well :) (now and in the future for the "lucky" couple)

I will be gone Friday - another venture into the land of the un-confident consumer - hopefully someone (or many someones) will find some need for what we do.

Have a great day :hi:

[54anickel]

18. Heh-heh, thanks and good luck on your adventure as well. (The

"lucky" couple) *snarf* Guess you could say that. If it weren't for the rather bad luck of unemployment/underemployment & lack of health benefits thanks to this wonderful economy, I don't believe we'd be going thru the bureaucratic red tape. Not that we aren't deeply in love and committed for life to each other (just had our 15th anniverary). We are thankful we have the option - nothing like it available for our gay friends (who are now buried in one partner's medical bills)

[ozymandius]

34. Congratulations 54anickel!

:hug:

You'll be fine. What time is the wedding?

Ozy

[54anickel]

36. Not until 4:30 this afternoon. Just got those little things to do to get

ready, check DU, read through the service to refresh my memory from the rehearsal last week, just about to do my nails.....you know the usual "stuff".

[UpInArms]

11. (LSI) Chip maker announces layoffs, outsourcing (to Asia) plans

http://www.kgw.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D8CJSMM80.html

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

Oregon's high-tech manufacturing sector took another blow this week when LSI Logic Corp. announced its plans to move all the chip production now done in its Gresham plant to Asia.

The decision means an immediate layoff for 90 of the company's 630 Oregon employees by Halloween, according to a report in The Oregonian. And it puts the remaining LSI Oregon jobs at risk as the Silicon Valley-based company tries to sell the plant.

Other Oregon chip makers, industry watchers say, could follow suit as the state's tech sector reaches further into middle age. Lured by tax breaks in the boom years of the 1990s, those companies now are running manufacturing technologies that are approaching obsolescence, and would cost billions of dollars to upgrade.

LSI is Gresham's second-largest manufacturing employer. On Tuesday, LSI said it would keep the Gresham plant open at least until early next year. By then, the company said it hopes to find a buyer that would continue making some LSI chips on a contract basis and retain many of the Gresham employees now working for LSI.

But industry analysts warned that it could prove difficult to find a buyer for the Gresham factory at a time when chip companies generally prefer to outsource production to specialists overseas.

...more...

[54anickel]

13. Cost of Katrina to hit budget hard

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0914/p01s01-usec.html

snip>

Spending tied to hurricane Katrina has hit as much as $2 billion per day, or about 10 times the amount the United States is spending on military operations in Iraq. The pace will slow, but the recovery effort could easily cost the federal government $150 billion, experts say. Spread over a couple of years, that would roughly match the $6 billion a month being spent in Iraq.

As staggering as these numbers are, the question is not whether America can absorb this shock but whether it will alter the mind-sets of policymakers and financiers on other budget matters.

Already, for example, some US law- makers cite the storm as a reason to reconsider plans to cut entitlement programs, which would shrink government assistance to the poor by $35 billion over five years. At the least, the looming tab for everything from road repairs to business loans is a reminder that America's current budgetary path is not sustainable.

"It just compounds the problems we're already in," says Linda Bilmes, a Harvard University economist. "Any money that we spend on Katrina is more money that we have to borrow and pay interest on. There's less money ... for doing all the other things we want to do."

The magnitude of Katrina's devastation and the government's slow initial response argue in favor of generous spending to help the Gulf region recover. The danger is if investors who finance America's debts begin to worry about a profligate Congress.

more...

[WCGreen]

17. I always check in, hardly ever post....

But the Shit is about to hit the fan......

This page should be nominated every day for the front page...

nominated!

[UpInArms]

21. Hi WCGreen!

Glad to have you drop in to the SMW!

Join in any time - tell us what you see and think - additions are always welcome!

:hi:

[Coexist]

31. I'll give it a recommendation, too

also a lurker/fan of the daily thread.

[Kukesa]

70. Me, too. It gets my vote, also. n/t

[54anickel]

22. Wave of mortgage defaults expected in southern US

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/55a18f84-2477-11da-a5d0-00000e2511c8.html

Louisiana officials are braced for a wave of personal bankruptcies, creating a lasting financial hangover for the citizens of one of America’s poorest states.


While many houses and jobs have been destroyed, mortgages remain, state officials warned. With many in the city lacking flood insurance, personal bankruptcies are expected to soar.

“We are going to see a lot of insolvency in the state,” said Michael Olivier, the state’s economic secretary. “The US economy is often powered by credit and there is a risk that we will have a lot of people with damaged credit ratings for a long time. Each day we learn about the next fire we have to put out.”

One-fifth of Louisianans already lived below the poverty line before Hurricane Katrina. The state’s bankers’ association has stopped sending out mortgage bills, but only temporarily.

Mr Olivier said banks were likely to lose a lot of money since their security – the houses – were now worthless in many cases. But new federal laws may make it even more difficult for hard-pressed individuals to seek protection from creditors.

more...

[54anickel]

47. Bankruptcy law delay proposed

Democrats say victims will need additional time

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3352921

WASHINGTON - Some Democratic lawmakers and consumer advocates are seeking relief for Hurricane Katrina victims from a new, more stringent bankruptcy law that takes effect next month.

Republicans, who dominate both the House and Senate, are frostier to the plan, while White House officials have indicated the administration is considering the idea.

The changes in the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, which make it harder to erase credit card and other debt through bankruptcy, affect an estimated 30,000 to 210,000 people nationwide. Passed by Congress and signed by President Bush in April, the law making the changes already has spurred a rush to the courthouse. New personal bankruptcy filings under the more lenient current law surged to an all-time high of 458,597 in the second quarter.

snip>

Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Wis., one of 25 senators who voted against the bankruptcy bill last spring, is proposing legislation that would provide a one-year grace period after Oct. 17 for people affected by the hurricane to file under current bankruptcy law.

more...

[UpInArms]

24. Employers cautious about hiring

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={47B7E3DD-3FA1-4909-A5EE-A468722C4509}&siteid=google

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- U.S. employers' hiring plans for the fourth quarter remain cautious, and unwaveringly consistent from the previous six quarters, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, conducted before Hurricane Katrina wreaked its havoc.

Twenty percent of firms said they plan to hire in the fourth quarter, about flat from the 21% who planned to hire in the third quarter this year, and the 20% who said they'd hire in the fourth quarter a year ago.

But the unanswered question is how Hurricane Katrina will affect the data: Manpower conducted the survey before the disastrous storm and resulting floods eliminated untold numbers of jobs, and whether that is permanent or temporary is unclear.

Manpower's seasonally adjusted net employment numbers measure the percentage of firms planning to hire minus those intending layoffs. It does not measure the number of jobs. Manpower surveys about 16,000 U.S. companies on their hiring plans each quarter.

"Business leaders continue to be cautious," said Barbara Beck, Manpower's executive vice president for the North America region.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Treasurys trim gains on retail report details

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38609.3772229861-842290548&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Benchmark Treasurys remained firmer but had pared early gains. The bond market looked past the retail-sales report headlines to focus on a gain in sales outside of the volatile auto category and a gain, if modest, when both cars and gasoline are excluded. The 10-year note was last 2/32 higher at 101 even, yielding ($TNX) 4.13% vs. 4.14% Tuesday.

[UpInArms]

40. Check-Kiting Continues: Fed adds temporary reserves VIA overnight repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-14T133137Z_01_N14342523_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that it was adding temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight system repurchases.

The benchmark federal funds rate was 3.50 percent, the Fed's target for the rate, at the time of the operation.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[54anickel]

45. Check the clock

The Outstanding Public Debt as of 14 Sep 2005 at 02:47:09 PM GMT is:

[Gregorian]

53. Who do we owe it to? When do they want it back?

I'm pretty familiar with debt. I've bought and sold a few bits of real estate in my life. Just looking at that number, I have a few thoughts. Who do we owe? What are the terms? I would guess that it's even more diverse and complex than any typical loan. One thing scares me as I sit here- I am thinking about the saying "He who has the gold, rules". What comes to mind when I think that is how those with power can play without abiding by the rules. So maybe it's really "He who has the bombs, rules". But nevertheless, I am wondering who is going to ask for their money back, and when. Maybe that's the wrong question. But I ask it because I can see that the number represents around thirty grand for each american. And, if I'm right, the money situation in our country isn't very good. That might be why we have a loan in the first place. Judging from the size of that number, I would guess that our payments only cover interest. Not principal. That would mean that when payback time comes, it would have to be in the form of total principal. I would guess this is a multiplicity of loans. It might soften the blow. We are not a productive country. That might sound incorrect and harsh. But not productive enough to have every man, woman, and child fork out $30,000. And it isn't going to happen. For every new technology we have, the Chinese have their brand new infrastructure, as well as 8 times the number of bodies. That's just China. For every idea and invention we have, they have a way of taking it away and making it happen.

Whatever. I think I'll go have a cup of coffee. I don't think Americans have the slightest about the ride they might be about to take. I don't think even I know. Maybe it'll never happen. 8 trillion is a big number. People should wonder what is going to happen with it.

[UpInArms]

61. US Treasury calls for reports on 10-year note (???)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-14T164650Z_01_N14656206_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-TREASURY-REPORTS-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday called for large position reports from entities with large positions in 10-year Treasury notes sold in August 2002 and maturing Aug. 15, 2012.

The Treasury Department has concerns with the way the securities are trading in the market, an official said.

The security is a 4-3/8 pct note with CUSIP number 912828 AJ 9.

The large position reporting threshold is $2 billion as of close of business Sept. 12.

The report is due Sept. 20 before noon EDT (1600 GMT).

Treasury has asked for such reports before to test compliance capability, but in this instance the call comes not as a test but out of concern for the way the security is trading, the official told reporters at the Treasury.

...more...

[UpInArms]

69. Treasuries fall on retail sales, monitoring move

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-14T183918Z_01_N14344410_RTRIDST_0_KATRINA-CORRUPTION.XML

CHICAGO, Sept 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices fell on Wednesday, hurt by a strong report on August retail sales that suggested the Federal Reserve will most likely press on with its program of interest rate increases.

Selling spilled over from Chicago Board of Trade futures, which eroded after the Treasury Department said it would step up monitoring of the cash security that is cheapest to deliver against the expiring September 10-year note <TYU5> contract.

The announcement suggested regulators are watching the cash and futures markets more closely this time around to prevent a repeat of the so-called squeeze in the June 10-year contract, which drove futures prices up sharply at the time.

The Treasury called for a report on entities that hold large positions -- $2 billion or more as of close of business on Sept. 12 -- to reveal themselves.

...more...

[UpInArms]

76. more info

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-14T193450Z_01_N14552182_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-SWAPS.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - U.S. swap spreads ended
broadly narrower on Wednesday, compressing further this week on
hedge demand tied to several large U.S. debt offerings, market
sources said.

Among Wednesday's key deals included $6 billion worth of
reference five-year and two-year notes from Freddie Mac
(FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research); a $2 billion-plus commercial mortgage-backed
securities offering from Bear Stearns (BSC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and a $1.75
billion global 10-year debt transaction from Singapore's
state-owned investment agency, Temasek Holdings .

Swap spreads finished 0.25 basis point to 0.50 basis point
tighter with 10-years narrowing to 42.25 basis points, near a
two-month tight.

Swap yields rose in step with Treasuries after a mixed bag
of U.S. economic data, which depicted a solid U.S. economy
muddled by the massive damages caused by Hurricane Katrina.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. pre-opening blather

9:00 S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Futures trade continues to suggest a flattish open for the equity market... As traders digest the mixed retail sales report, the fact that the data is pre-Katrina weighs upon sentiment and may underpin the market's stand-offish stance ahead of tomorrow's CPI report and the Sept. 20 FOMC meeting... Aside from better than expected Q3 (Aug) earnings from Lehman Brothers (LEH), the absence of an additional early catalyst has kept buyers and sellers alike in check.

8:35 S&P futures vs fair value: +1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. The Aug. Retail Sales report is just crossing the wires... Total sales fell 2.1%, higher than the expected 1.4% decline. Excluding autos, sales have checked in at +1.0%, better than the expected 0.5% rise, due in large part to a strong 4.4% rise at gas stations... While futures market got an initial boost from the better-than-expected ex-auto read, indications continue to point to a mixed start for stocks... Bonds, meanwhile, have basically held steady, as the 10-yr note is up 5 ticks to yield 4.10%

7:59 S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Cash market is poised for a flat to slightly lower start as traders stick near the sidelines ahead of the morning's economic data. At 8:30 ET, Aug. Retail Sales report will hit the wires, for which economists expect a read of -1.4%, while excluding autos, the consensus is pegged at 0.5%. At 9:15 ET, Industrial Production (consensus 0.3%) and Capacity Utilization (consensus 79.9%) reports for August will be released. These early reads will likely set the early trading tone

[ozymandius]

32. markets are open for bidness

9:33
Dow 10,617.70 +20.26 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,169.47 -2.28 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,233.63 +2.43 (+0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 41.29 -0.05 (-0.12%)
NYSE Volume 32,803,000
Nasdaq Volume 48,911,000

[UpInArms]

35. seems we were reaching for the same coin again

:D

[UpInArms]

33. 9:33 casinos open with plenty of gamblers

Dow 10,623.15 +25.71 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,170.00 -1.75 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,233.85 +2.65 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.129 -0.05 (-0.12%)

NYSE Volume 40,825,000
Nasdaq Volume 56,443,000

9:18AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Following more economic data, futures trade holds relatively steady and still indicates a flat open for the indices... Aug. industrial production rose 0.1%, below an expected 0.3% rise. Capacity utilization, meanwhile, rose to 79.8%, basically matching expectations of 79.9%... Bonds, meanwhile have remained unchanged as the 10-yr note currently yields 4.13%

[UpInArms]

39. WEIRD PIEHOLE ALERT

10:12am 09/14/05 BUSH: U.S. TO END ALL TRADE BARRIERS IF OTHER NATIONS AGREE

(adding the following on edit)

Bush urges renewed push for Doha trade pact deal

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38609.4350431019-842303383&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Bush urged world trade negotiators on Wednesday to complete the World Trade Organization's Doha Round to free up global trade. "Under Doha, every nation will gain and the developing world stands to gain the most," Bush said in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly. The Doha round would eliminate trade barriers in agricultural products and services. Bush said the U.S. would agree to end all tariffs, subsidies, and other barriers to trade, "if other nations do the same." Separately, E.U. Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson and U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman are meeting in Washington this morning in an effort to give new momentum to the talks.

[54anickel]

41. Huh? Plutocracy getting ready to cash in big? Sounds like they're

setting up a free-for-all. :scared:

[UpInArms]

43. 10:37 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,605.32 +7.88 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,168.40 -3.35 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,231.54 +0.34 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.135 +0.01 (+0.02%)

NYSE Volume 420,070,000
Nasdaq Volume 428,659,000

10:30AM: The stock market has moved lower, with each of the major averages falling into negative territory... Investors continue to absorb the morning's economic data, noting that Aug. industrial production rose just 0.1% as the Fed notes that Katrina reduced industrial output by 0.3%. Overall capacity utilization rate held at 79.8%, below the presumed 80% inflation pressure point, suggesting some slowing but good underlying trend in output. The market remains apprehensive ahead of tomorrow's CPI, Sept. 20's FOMC meeting, and next month's data that reflect Katrina's effects...NYSE Adv/Dec 1442/1328, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1239/1279

10:00AM: The indices continue to trade in mixed fashion in proximity of the flat line... The Energy sector has begun the day in the driver's seat, ticking upward as the price of oil heads north and approaches $64.00/bbl (+$0.74) ahead of the EIA's weekly inventory report at 10:30 ET... The Consumer Discretionary sector, meanwhile, remains the laggard, extending yesterday's decline on the heels of the Aug. retail sales headline that showed sales declined 2.1%, comapared to the expected 1.4% decline. To that end, retailers and homebuilders have lost 0.4% and 0.6% in the early going...NYSE Adv/Dec 1589/979, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1261/1090

[54anickel]

44. Sheesh, have CSPAN on in the background this AM. Listening to

the House members whoring for their lobbyists and what great things they are doing for the Katrina victims. The one was going on and on and on about the gaming & entertainment industries (naming specific corporations). All I could think of was, Oh yeah, NOLA is going to become another Vegas/Disney playground for the well-off.

Another was for the nation fo Qatar, how great the royal family is and how generous they've been, freedom of religion, womens rights, blah, blah, blah.

Another was ripping on the poor response and ignoring the threat, spending money for HS rather than the levees and ignoring the earthquake threat to CA. His ass was cut short.

It's a wonder these elected officials get ANYTHING done. They just seem so freakin' outta touch with reality.

[ramapo]

49. They get a lot done

For the people and companies that bankroll their campaigns and lifestyles. That's about the extent of our government. The rest is all for show.

[54anickel]

46. Saudi Arabia Swaps Oil For Gold

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=7&id=2653

A senior analyst with gold research house GFMS has recently visited the kingdom of Saudi Arabia to confirm mounting evidence that the local gold market is "hot". Having met with key players involved in bullion distribution, manufacturing, wholesaling and retailing of gold and gold jewellery, the analyst noted all, without exception, confirmed the market was on the up this year, with comments about the degree of growth varying between "good" to "excellent".

The views of the trade are amply supported by fundamental trade-flow evidence, GFMS suggests. Bullion imports have soared, exported scrap has dried up and jewellery shipments from Dubai have increased notably.

GFMS notes some of the macro data for Saudi Arabia provides ample reason for the buoyant state of gold demand. Nominal GDP growth this year is expected to reach over 25% whilst inflation is running at under 1%. The surging oil price is clearly one reason for such pectacular numbers, but GFMS notes around 45% of domestic liquidity growth in 2005 is being driven by the rapid expansion of both consumer and corporate credit, with the remainder coming from oil revenues, repatriated wealth and realised asset gains from the stock and property markets.

bit more...

[54anickel]

50. GE may no longer see the light

http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/14/news/fortune500/ge_restructuring/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - General Electric Co. is preparing to restructure or shed parts of its industrial businesses and could get out of some long-held high profiles businesses such as appliances and light bulbs, according to a published report Wednesday.

The Financial Times reported quotes John Rice, a GE vice chairman, as saying the company needs to look at ways to reinvigorate the industrial and consumer business unit that employs 100,000 people and makes some of its best-known products, includes household appliances, lighting, plastics, security scanners and equipment leasing.

Rice told the paper that some of the businesses might be more valuable to another company.

"There are a few that we have identified already and others are at various stages," he told the paper. "Some we are pretty sure do not fit; some we hope to be able to reconcile and some we are not sure about."

more...

Military Industrial Complex or bust :eyes:

[mrdmk]

59. Would it be nice for General Electric to get out of the Media Business

Just a thought!:yoiks:

[54anickel]

51. Northwest Bonds May Drop on Bankruptcy Filing, Moody's Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=agSjvGu7hGJg&refer=us

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Investors holding unsecured bonds sold by Northwest Airlines Corp., the fourth-biggest U.S. carrier, may lose as much as 90 percent of the value of their securities if the company files for bankruptcy protection.

Based on past airline bankruptcies, investors in St. Paul, Minnesota-based Northwest, which yesterday said it wasn't paying $42 million of its debts, may only get back 10 cents on the dollar, said Richard Bittenbender, a senior vice president at Moody's Investors Service in New York. ``Ten cents on the dollar is still a pretty horrific loss,'' he said.

Possible Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings by Northwest and Atlanta-based Delta Air Lines Inc., the No. U.S. 3 carrier, would mean four of the seven biggest U.S. airlines will be operating under court protection, a situation not seen since 1991, when Eastern Air Lines Inc., Braniff Inc., Continental Airlines Inc. and Pan Am Corp. filed. This time, carriers are saddled with high costs, soaring fuel prices and competition from low-fare rivals.

``The nimbler are those that can change,'' said former Continental chairman Gordon Bethune, who ran the company from 1994, a year after it emerged from its second bankruptcy, until December. ``The nimble will do well and the ones that can't change will go by the by.''

more...

[54anickel]

52. Delta Bankruptcy Looms, Northwest Air May Follow After Default

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aPOlybaNtQDA&refer=us

Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Delta Air Lines Inc., the third- largest U.S. carrier, may file for bankruptcy tomorrow as rising fuel costs and pressure to discount fares reduce its cash, a person familiar with the company said.

Northwest Airlines Corp., the No. 4 U.S. airline, defaulted on a payment to a commuter carrier, Mesaba Aviation, according to a regulatory filing today by Mesaba's parent, MAIR Holdings Inc. Earlier today the New York Times online edition said the carrier may file for bankruptcy as early as tomorrow.

The biggest U.S. airlines have posted losses of $38.2 billion since 2000 amid competition from discount carriers such as Southwest Airlines Co. and soaring costs. A 58 percent rise in jet-fuel prices this year, boosted in part by Hurricane Katrina, made it even harder to match discount fares.

``The company has made no decision regarding a Chapter 11 filing,'' Northwest spokesman Kurt Ebenhoch said in an e-mail. Delta spokesman Anthony Black didn't immediately return a call seeking comment.

Delta has been seeking to avoid bankruptcy for more than a year and averted a filing in October 2004 mainly by winning pay and benefit concessions from pilots that provided $5 billion in savings over as many years. The Atlanta-based airline revived the bankruptcy warning this year amid more losses, higher fuel prices and declining cash reserves.

more...

[ozymandius]

54. lunchtime check-in

12:19
Dow 10,609.86 +12.42 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,170.25 -1.50 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,233.35 +2.15 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 41.32 -0.02 (-0.05%)
NYSE Volume 863,642,000
Nasdaq Volume 787,647,000

12:05PM: Market continues to trade in much the same fashion as it opened - mixed - as tepid reactions to the morning's varied economic data provide little conviction on either side of the aisle...

Retail Sales for Aug. hit the wires as the opening bell tolled, registering the largest decline in nearly four years for the total rate, which fell 2.1% (consensus -1.4%). The market focused on that headline read, which overshadowed stronger-than-expected sales that exclude autos (+1.0% vs. 0.5% consensus) and that followed huge gains in July (1.8%) and June (1.7%). All in all, though, the market's response was a relatively muted one. While the latter read suggests underlying demand remains strong, the fact that Katrina-related effects were not included has traders awaiting September reports...

The second dose of data noted that Aug. industrial production rose just 0.1%, as the Fed cited that Katrina took industrial output down 0.3%. While Overall capacity utilization held at 79.8%, which is below the presumed 80% inflation pressure point and reflects a good underlying trend in output, the figure suggests some deceleration and contributes to the market's apprehension ahead of tomorrow's CPI data, the Sept. 20 FOMC meeting that will settle bets regarding rate-hike action, and potential profit warnings on the pre-earnings season horizon...

[ozymandius]

55. Stocks Barely Move on Falling Energy Demand

NEW YORK - Stocks barely budged Wednesday as weaker-than-expected economic data and rising oil prices competed with news that the nation's demand for oil and gasoline fell in July.

Investors curbed talk of a 1970s-style energy crunch caused by Hurricane Katrina after the Department of Energy's data arm said U.S. demand for oil and gas fell in July due to higher prices. Still, crude oil futures were higher. A barrel of light crude was quoted at $63.95, up 84 cents on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Wall Street was concerned with nearly flat industrial output figures from the Federal Reserve — due to Katrina — and a 2.1 percent drop in retail sales. However, the Commerce Department noted that with auto sales removed, other retail sales rose 1 percent, though much of that was due to a rise in gasoline prices.

more...

[54anickel]

56. Global imbalances more complex: IMF

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B9EAE7DC7%2D5B5B%2D478E%2D8700%2DF825B1EE3D20%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Global economic imbalances are quickly turning into a Gordian knot that will take concerted international cooperation to untangle, according to a new report released Wednesday by the International Monetary Fund.

The study raises a yellow flag of caution about the outlook for the central bankers and finance ministers who will gather in Washington over the weekend of Sept. 24 to discuss the global economic outlook.

At its core, the problem remains the U.S. current account deficit, the IMF said.

The deficit in the current account, the widest measure of the U.S. trade imbalance, set a record of $195.1 billion in the first quarter. This is equivalent to 6.4% of U.S. gross domestic product. Second-quarter data will be released on Friday.

snip>

Some observers, including White House economic advisor Ben Bernanke, have argued that the U.S. current account deficit really represents a global savings glut, where the rest of the world has started saving too much and this has to be absorbed by the United States.

snip...here it comes>

Emerging market countries, particularly China, need to start allowing quality private-sector investments, the IMF said.

more...

[54anickel]

57. I don’t make enough money to pay the bills any more (Mogambo)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/sept142005.html

snip>

Anyway, we were talking about the Treasury, which spent the entire week printing up, literally, $6.1 billion in actual cash. Perhaps this has something to do with the fact that they have ballooned the national debt to $7,949 billion, which is up $20 billion in just the last week alone. In the last WEEK! WEEK!

And when you add in the $62 billion in hastily-passed New Orleans-related federal authorizations, suddenly you have a big freaking pot load of money pouring into the USA, because the banks will eagerly lend money now against a guaranteed flood of money in the near future.

How much money is this compared to Louisiana? Well, $62 billion is more-- more! --than the entire total of ALL the retail sales, in the whole state of Louisiana, for the whole of last year. THAT'S how much money that is! The damned place is going to be deluged with money!

And to show you the really weird part, the dollar did not fall precipitously like, utilizing the Mogambo use of an ugly metaphor as a literary device (MUOAUMAALD), a big piece of dog crap that fell off the curb into the gutter.

The fact that the dollar did NOT collapse to utter worthless in the face of this rampant monetary and fiscal insanity only proves that Americans are not the only people in the world who are complete idiots. Whew!

more...

[54anickel]

58. Gold, dollar link a myth?

http://www.miningmx.com/gold_silver/486288.htm

SOUTH African economists have joined the debate regarding a breakdown in relations between the dollar and the gold price claiming that the relationship was never a firm one. The general rule of thumb is that when the US dollar weakens, the dollar gold price moves upward. However, analysts have recently postulated that a breakdown in this inverse relationship may be occurring. Not all agree.

“To suggest a decoupling implies that there was a robust correlation between the US dollar and the dollar gold price to begin with,” said Standard Bank chief economist, Goolam Ballim.

“Over the past ten years, the link between the gold price and the dollar has not been particularly strong despite assumptions to the contrary. In the last five years the correlation has broken down on numerous occasions so the bottom line is that the correlation is far from faultless,” Ballim said.

Citing an example, Ballim said that in the first half of 2005, there was a more than 70% correlation between the values of the US dollar and the dollar gold price. However since June the correlation has lost strength. The assumption that the gold price invariably responds to the US dollar does not always work.

snip>

JPMorgan also speculated that gold might be decoupling from the US dollar in a recent research report titled, The Golden Goose.

more...

[ret5hd]

60. i thought i read here (somewhere?) that there was evidence...

of gold price manipulation by the u.s. gov and associated entities (big business)

in other words, that the essence of the above article (that gold and dollar are NO LONGER inversely tied) is wrong...but the manipulations by the u.s. gov may make it appear that way...for a short while.

the essence of the article i read was the us gov was trying to keep the price of gold down because if it went up too much, it made the dollar look weak, which in turn could lead to others dumping the dollar...which was the point of my question in post #37 above.

[ozymandius]

64. published 9/6

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050906/65371.html?printer=1

Government Intervention in Stock Market is Detailed by New Report, GATA Says
Tuesday September 6, 8:30 am ET

MANCHESTER, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 6, 2005--A major Canadian financial management firm that a year ago published a compilation of evidence of central bank manipulation of the gold price has just done the same in regard to the U.S. stock market and has reached a similar conclusion.

The new report is titled "Move Over, Adam Smith: The Visible Hand of Uncle Sam," and has been published by Sprott Asset Management of Toronto. It was written by the firm's president, John P. Embry, and his assistant, Andrew Hepburn, and concludes that the U.S. government has intervened to support the stock market so many times that "what apparently started as a stopgap measure may have morphed into a serious moral hazard situation, with market manipulation an endemic feature of the U.S. stock market."

The new report relies largely on reports of news organizations and the essays and research papers of economics academics that, as might be expected, have not been well-publicized in the United States. But some of these reports have been circulated by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee over the years.

-cut-

"In addition to creating a privileged class, the manipulation also has little democratic legitimacy in the sense that the citizenry has not given its consent. This has tangible ramifications. By not informing the public, successive U.S. administrations have employed a dangerous policy response that is subject to the worst possible abuse. In this regard, the line between national necessity and political expediency has no doubt been perilously blurred.

more...

[ozymandius]

62. Bargain hunters stayed home today.

S&P barely hanging on the plus side by a tattered thread...

2:05
Dow 10,592.34 -5.10 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,162.90 -8.85 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 1,231.79 +0.59 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 41.54 +0.20 (+0.48%)
NYSE Volume 1,209,890,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,079,641,000

1:30PM: Despite modest weakness in the bond market, which has lifted yields on the 10-year note (-3/32) to 4.14%, Utilities (+0.8%) have continued to climb, extending the index's 18.0% year-to-date gain... TXU Corp.(TXU 104.44 +3.33) spearheads the advance, surging 3.3% and nearing a 52-week high, while a 2.1% jump in Sempra Energy (SRE 45.76 +0.93), which was started with a Top Pick rating at RBC Capital, has also lent support...

The Materials sector (+0.7%) has also charged ahead, benefiting from dollar weakness and a 3.9% rise in Newmont Mining (NEM 43.38 +1.64), which has also kept gold (+3.4%) at the top of the charts today... Although these sectors offer respectable gains, their combined 6.4% weighting within the S&P 500 does little to counter declines in the more influential Consumer Discretionary and Industrials sectors, which respectively account for 11.4% and 11.2% of the index...NYSE Adv/Dec 1495/1634, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1223/1635

[UpInArms]

63. upcoming changes in the DOW next week

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-14T172520Z_01_N14469152_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-CREDIT.XML

excerpt:


Dow Jones said it will replace nine names in its high-grade CDS index. Dealers had previously predicted at least eight names would change among the 125 in the index.

The nine new names in the high-grade index include The Gap Inc. (GPS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), IAC InterActive Corp. (IACI.O: Quote, Profile, Research), Knight Ridder Inc. (KRI.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Limited Brands Inc. (LTD.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Marsh & McLennan Cos. Inc. (MMC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Radio Shack Corp., Sara Lee Corp. (SLE.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Toll Bros. Inc. (TOL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Sabre Holdings Corp. (TSG.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

The nine dropping out of the index are Eastman Kodak Co. (EK.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Ford Motor Credit Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research), General Motors Acceptance Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Kerr-McGee Corp. (KMG.N: Quote, Profile, Research), MBNA Corp. (KRB.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Liberty Media Corp. (L.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Lear Corp. (LEA.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Maytag Corp. (MYG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Sears Roebuck Acceptance Corp. (S.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

Names are dropped if their ratings fell into junk status based on ratings by either Moody's Investors Service or Standard & Poor's. Sixteen participating dealers, that make markets for the indexes, also vote on which names to include based on which names are most actively traded.

Dow also said it will replace 15 names, or half of its 30-name high-volatility investment-grade CDS index. This is the most replacements ever for this index, said Kevin Pilarski, director of alternative strategies and derivatives at Dow Jones.

...more...

How much do you think this will affect the numbers?

[ozymandius]

66. getting rid of old junk

This will buoy the index. Interesting that there have never been this many listings tossed overboard at once. The numbers are vitally important as one must keep up appearances. I am not knowedgeable about the quality of this index.

However, if recent Dow history is any indication, Eastman Kodak's de-listing from the Dow 30 was a serious blow to the company's standing in the industrial community. The de-listing was a defensive maneuver to protect the Dow's daily average.

[UpInArms]

67. 2:21 EST just took a turn for the worse

Dow 10,568.79 -28.65 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,157.67 -14.08 (-0.65%)
S&P 500 1,229.06 -2.14 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.156 +0.22 (+0.53%)

NYSE Volume 1,289,563,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,156,920,000

[ozymandius]

65. updaed blather

2:05PM: The Tech sector spends another session as the best of the losers, down 0.1% today, matching yesterday's loss and paring its 0.5% year-to-date gain... A lack of bellwether participation has impeded the sector's rise, as stocks like Microsoft (MSFT 26.49 +0.01), Verizon (VZ 32.55 +0.05) and Dell (DELL 34.92 +0.01) -- issues that hold some of the weightiest influence -- hover around the flat line...

To that end, IBM (IBM 80.79 +0.04), Motorola (MOT 23.79 +0.34), and Texas Instruments (TXN 34.07 +0.11) currently offer the best performances, but their gains are modest in scope and lack conviction; each is up on less-than-average trading volume... Chip titan Intel (INTC 24.85 -0.05) and networker Cisco (CSCO 18.18 -0.07) meanwhile, have entered the red... NYSE Adv/Dec 1368/1801, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1141/1767

[UpInArms]

68. Nearly 2.7 mln worked in areas Katrina hit hardest

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-14T170136Z_01_N14652464_RTRIDST_0_KATRINA-EMPLOYMENT-REPEAT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Before Hurricane Katrina hit, nearly 2.7 million people were employed in the area of the U.S. Gulf Coast most affected by the storm, the Department of Labor said on Wednesday.

While the department's Bureau of Labor Statistics has not yet said how many jobs have been lost due to the storm, a count of the region's labor force should help economists estimate how employment will be hurt by the storm's devastation.

As of July 2005, the areas most affected by Katrina -- including certain counties in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama -- had a labor force of about 2.8 million workers, including 2.7 million who held jobs and some 165,000 who were unemployed and looking for work.

That represents about 20 percent of the 14.4 million labor force of the three states plus Florida, which had less damage from the storm, and less than two percent of America's 151 million-strong labor force.

...more...

I wonder when these "newly unemployed" will show up in the reports? Tomorrow, maybe?

[UpInArms]

71. Short sellers deliver for hedge fund investors

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-14T185229Z_01_N14656725_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FUND-HEDGES.XML

BOSTON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - A feeling of doom and gloom is paying large dividends this year to investors who have put money into hedge funds that peddle in pessimism and bet stocks have only one way to go -- down.

Short sellers ranked as the best performers among all funds in the $1 trillion hedge fund industry last month, reports released on Wednesday show.

According to Hedge Fund Research, a Chicago-based firm that tracks industry performance and flows, the average short seller returned 2.78 percent last month and was up 7.07 percent for the first eight months of the year. The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index, which tracks all hedge fund strategies, returned 0.86 percent in August and was up 5.08 percent through August.

"Short sellers generally perform in inverse proportion to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, and in August these short sellers were on the better side of the trade," said Joshua Rosenberg, president of Hedge Fund Research. Most major stock indices posted losses in August.

...more...

[UpInArms]

73. 3:11 EST numbers (redder) and blather

Dow 10,547.28 -50.16 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,151.97 -19.78 (-0.91%)
S&P 500 1,227.18 -4.02 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.166 +0.32 (+0.77%)

NYSE Volume 1,524,514,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,363,503,000

3:00PM: The indices edge lower, but the fact that futures trading for crude has finished for the day may help cap further selling efforts... Although the Consumer Staples sector (-0.3%) has been red throughout the session, it's at the same time home to one of the day's brightest spots... Surging shares of grocers Albertson's (ABS 24.62 +0.26), Kroger (KR 20.44 0.47), and Safeway (SWY 24.68 +0.42) have placed food retailers behind gold on today's top ten list. Up 3.3% this week, the group places fifth; on a month-to-date basis, grocers currently hold the bronze with its 6.1% gain...

For its part, Kroger advances after an analyst upgrade to Aggressive Buy; Albertson's continues to attract buyers after putting itself up for sale last Friday, and Safeway trades in sympathy with its peers...NYSE Adv/Dec 1286/1921, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1030/1920

2:30PM: The Dow and S&P have both given up the modest gains to which they've clung to today, joining the Nasdaq on negative turf... Crude oil has broken above its mid-day range to a new session high, now $64.90/bbl (+$1.79), and simultaneously drags the market lower, leaving Materials and Utilities alongside Energy as the only sectors above the flat line, as traders use oil's surge into the close of commodities trading as a reason to lock in more profits...

The downside action across the equity board has perhaps also been exacerbated by the session's light trading volume, as that on the NYSE has only just now passed 1.0 bln shares...NYSE Adv/Dec 1372/1824, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1075/1821

[UpInArms]

75. Delta to file for bankruptcy, Northwest on brink

(I guess that makes all of Delta's current stock a rather interesting wallpaper pattern :eyes: )

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-14T191758Z_01_N14242842_RTRIDST_0_AIRLINES-BANKRUPTCIES-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is expected to seek bankruptcy protection later on Wednesday, a source familiar with the situation said, as rival Northwest Airlines Corp. (NWAC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) considers doing the same.

Delta would become the third major U.S. airline operating under court protection, dramatizing the industry's struggle with soaring oil and competition from low-cost carriers.

The sector's woes went from bad to worse this month as refinery outages caused by Hurricane Katrina sent jet fuel prices spiking. U.S. airlines are expected to post some $10 billion in losses this year.

Atlanta-based Delta's woes have been compounded by a crushing debt load of more than $20 billion and one of the industry's biggest underfunded pension burdens.

Founded in 1928, Delta became a top international international player by taking over many routes from defunct Pan Am in 1991. It has faced an uphill battle to recovery after getting hammered by the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and the slowdown in flying that followed.

...more...

And there go the pension plans, etc.

[UpInArms]

77. closing numbers

Dow 10,544.90 -52.54 (-0.50%)
Nasdaq 2,149.33 -22.42 (-1.03%)
S&P 500 1,227.16 -4.04 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.168 +0.34 (+0.82%)

NYSE Volume 1,919,350,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,690,140,000

blather to come - but I have to run :hi:

[ozymandius]

78. blather

Close: The market closed near session lows as renewed concerns about rising oil prices underpinned a sense of nervousness, igniting another round of profit-taking that closed seven out of ten economic sectors to the downside... The trading day began on shaky ground, with the major indices split and vacillating around the flat line, as tepid, nonchalant reactions to the morning's varied economic data provided little conviction on either side of the aisle...

Retail Sales for Aug. (declining 2.1% vs. an expected 1.4% slide), marking the largest decline in nearly four years, accompanied the opening bell. That headline snatched the market's attention and overshadowed a stronger-than-expected read on sales excluding autos (+1.0% vs. 0.5% consensus) that suggested underlying demand remains strong. Overall, however, the market's response was a relatively muted one, waiting for September reports to include the Katrina effect...