Home Prices Jump 17% in Southland (Los Angeles Metro)

[David Zephyr]

Home Prices Jump 17% in Southland: The median cost in the six-county region hits $476,000 in August as sales volume picks up.

By Annette Haddad, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

Southern California's hot housing market reheated in August as prices rose at a faster pace for the second month in a row after slowing earlier this year, according to data released Tuesday.

The median home price in the six-county region rose 17% to $476,000 last month compared with the year-earlier period, after year-over-year increases of 16.7% in July and 15% in June, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla-based real estate research firm. The volume of transactions also regained steam after tapering off in recent months.

Full Story: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes14sep14,1,4002227.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true

[cliss]

1. This is ----------insane.

(shakes head in disbelief).

The U.S. economy is a hollowed-out shell. Our manufacturing base is gone. Unemployment is headed up. Hurricane Katrina is going to set back our recovery Big Time.

The dollar is swirling in the toilet, as we speak.

WHAT the hell is accounting for this?

[The_Casual_Observer]

2. Pure speculation and easy money.

What else can you "invest" in and be "promised" a return of 17+%/yr?

This will continue until the "last guy" can't buy.

[David Zephyr]

4. The cause: Low inventory of homes, low apt. vacancies, foreign investment

Keep in mind that the U.S. dollar is at an all time low against most foreign currencies and so what looks high to us can be 20% to 30% lower for foreign investors (both individual and corporate) just by merit of currency exchange alone.

Real estate is "real estate" and is a commodity, just like oil, metal and foodstuffs.

I have consistently jumped into threads here at the DU as far as 18 months ago where doomsayers were advising potential homeowners to "wait" until the "bubble" bursts.

Well, another year and a half has gone by, homes are 20%-40% more expensive, mortgage rates which are still at historical lows are still higher than the rock bottom rates of 18 months ago...and worst of all, those that waited lost out on mortgage interest deductions, tax deductions and most of all appreciation.

Housing is really going to be the ultimate class divider in America now for generations to come. I still think that buying a little something is better (even now) than waiting for a fantasy bubble to burst.

A lot of the doomsayers who were screeching on DU forums and other internet forum about the impending housing crash were not so altruistic as one might think because they had shorted the REIT markets --- that is, they bet their money that the real estate market would crash and then that they would make a lot of money because of it --- and therefore were working the internet forums (including the DU) to help further generate a "panic" to help make their shorting investment pay off. They should be ashamed of themselves as they perhaps discouraged many to stay out of buying a home.

[ret5hd]

5. lemme guess...

you're from california and you've bet "long" on the market. Am i right?

[markam]

6. I bet

He is a real estate agent in California

[David Zephyr]

10. Hi Markam.

Welcome to the DU. I wouldn't want to take your money in the bet. I am not a real estate agent and there are plenty of folks here at the DU who know me.

See my post above. I really got pissed about 18 months ago when the doomsayers were scaring first time buyers into waiting...as if they weren't nervous enough already. I was when I first bought a home a million years ago.

[David Zephyr]

9. Half right.

I do live in L.A. County, I do own real estate, but I don't play the options "game" as it is a game. Never have. Never will. I don't even gamble or own a deck of cards.

I always encourage young people to buy a home as soon as they are able to. Time is on their side.

[BootinUp]

8. You only have to

look back one decade or so to see the risk of buying near the bursting point.

Say your company decides to relocate after the bubble busts and you can't sell your property for anything near what you paid and yet you have strong incentives to move with the job? It happens, happened. I would just advise caution.

[PurityOfEssence]

13. It's so very, very sad...

A good friend of mine sold his house in the Franklin Hills two years ago, blithely saying that he'd buy back in after the silliness stopped. I warned him, but he wouldn't listen. The ~2000 square foot house in a nice neighborhood with no lawn was bought in '99 for three something and sold in '02 for somewhere in the high fours. Today, it could be sold for somewhere around 800K.

Yes, it's ridiculous. Yes it's sad for those not in the market. No, any correction will not be severe.

People want to live here, and there's nowhere else to build.

A house down the street here in Silver Lake was put on the market 3 months ago. It has a great view of downtown, no front yard and a smallish yard below. Built in the '40s, it's in great shape, but is only a 2 bedroom house with one bath that comes in at a whopping 891 square feet. It was listed at $659K and sold promptly. Whether it sold for more than that I don't know.

I feel sorry for anyone who's not already in the market. Although corrections may happen--even large ones, given a terrorist act or earthquake--they won't be big enough to help most people.

[David Zephyr]

25. Hi PurityOfEssence

How are you doing? I see things exactly the same way. I guess you saw that I'm suspected of being a real estate agent when I was only trying to point things out and caution people not to always listen to doomsayers.

Great to hear from you. Hope we can all hook up again sometime in L.A.

The story you tell about your friend in Franklin Hills probably has been duplicated too many sad times to tell. Thanks for weighing in.

By the way, and off the subject, John Edwards has really impressed me a lot of late.

[PurityOfEssence]

78. Hey, I miss you too

Check you P.M.

[JDPriestly]

70. Sorry, but it's a bubble.and I'm not into REITs

There is no relationship between the rise in home prices in the Southland and any rise in wages. The rise in housing prices is a bubble. Katrina may prevent it from bursting, however, because Katrina is likely to prevent Greenspan from raising the interest rates.

In addition, although the lost housing stock is in the Gulf area, there will be a slightly greater demand for housing everywhere due to the numbers of displaced people. That will hold housing prices up here also.

Then there is also the belief that has taken hold since the stock market crash in 2000-2001 that real estate is a better investment

But it is speculation for the most part that is driving the prices up in So. Cal. In my neighborhood, an architect bought a tiny very old uninteresting house, completely redid the interior and, small as it is, it looks fabulous. Now she is placing it on the market for some incredibly high price. She will probably get her price too because she did such a fabulous job on the redesign. Still, she is basically a speculator like several others who have bought properties and fixed the up in order to resell at a profit. They owe their continuing prosperity to Katrina I believe.

[trekbiker]

74. it is definately a speculative bubble in certain areas...

mostly on the coasts and select interior cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas. Here in Sacramento the bubble has topped out. Inventories of unsold homes are way higher than a year ago and new subdivisions are discounting $30K to $50K to move homes in just the last month. How this bubble pops (or deflates) will depend on location and the rate at which interest rates rise. Will is simply flatten or slightly decrease like the last one in 1990?? I doubt it. Percentage of home ownership is far higher this time and the number of very risky loans is huge. The rate of defaults will be much higher this time as those 100% L/V ARM's start kicking in during the next couple years as interest rates rise. All those homes will pile into the unsold inventory and crash prices in certain areas. Also, the interest rate picture 18 months ago was a lot different than it is now and the Fed will likely keep raising or foreign interests will increasingly decide they dont want dollars which will drive rates higher.

I can see California interior valley prices going down significantly as mortgage interest rates head past 7%. Interior city bubbles created by speculators may also see big declines. Coast area bubbles like Boston or the CA Bay Area and LA might be different though and may simply flatten out because their demand and supply situation is different. How this plays out depends on location, interest rates, what happens to long term bonds, what China and other foreign interests who've been financing our bubble do..., etc. It looks bad for the future. Not like 1990 at all.

[Name removed]

30. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DBoon]

3. economic musical chairs

and when the music stops, someone will be left with no place to sit

[BootinUp]

7. My decision to leave

SoCal in '87 still looks like a good one. Holy smokes, wait till the next crash out there.

[David Zephyr]

11. There never was a "crash" out here.

Prices stagnated between around 1991 through 1996 which was the only time in California history that real estate slowed.

A friend of mine bailed from California when our company moved to a lower wage state --- during the Bush, Sr. recession, and when Bush, Sr. closed so many military bases here --- and he sold his home in Corona for $200K which he'd bought for $155 the year before. He panicked, moved to South Carolina then on to North Carolina where he is now. He and his wife who also worked could have easily made their modest mortgage payment with her income alone.

I just spoke to him last month. He wound up unemployed there, but owns his home outright which he bought for $63K. He told me that his daughter who still lives here told him that she'd seen their old home in Corona for sale for $850K.

He said he made the biggest mistake in his life leaving. He's a great guy, but there you are.

Leona Helmsly, hardly a nice woman, but even a clock is correct twice a day once said, "The two words in real estate to remember: never sell."

There won't be crash out here in spite of many people overtly and not so overtly hoping there will be.

You can check back through the archives here and you will find that I have been consistent on this for a very, very long time.

[cliss]

12. Hmmm, you sound awfully confident.

(even though this country has been through crashes before....not just stock market crashes but bona fide real estate crashes).

OK: let's do this. I say the real estate market is going to crash. I'll even be bold enough to predict when: maybe January, maybe February of 2006.

You say there won't be a crash.

No money involved, just pride at stake. I'll bookmark this post (not sure how, but somebody will be able to help me) and then I'll revisit this thread sometime next year. We'll see who was right.
--------------------
***
By the way, big fish swim in deep waters. You know what happens in a real estate crash, when everybody and their uncle is forced to sell for pennies on the dollar? The barracudas who have sat on the sidelines, who knew it was coming. Investors with staying power, that's who.

[jaysunb]

17. Your post " sounds" reasonable

but in the 36 years I've lived here in Los Angeles metro, none of the 5 homes I've owned has ever failed to appreciate.

Somewhere upthread, someone, ( maybe David) mentioned the lack of space to build and the high demand. That demand comes from many areas, especially immigration. (legal) When they get here, they've already got the money, and they pay whatever asked.
Plus, there's an awful lot of money concentrated in this area,money being made elswhere and people are spending it.

I do feel sorry for the people who get their first home using "creative" financing. They will probably wind up big losers.


BTW, when you check back on your prediction date, please include me in your findings at that time.

[cliss]

20. I will do that, J.

While I'm happy for you that you have only seen price appreciation, I am not convinced it will go on indefinitely.

Real estate prices are caused by many things. Some good, but not all good. I've read that because our manufacturing base is really small now, capital is desperately looking around for something to invest in. There is nowhere for it to go, except in residential real estate. Greenspan is hugely responsible for this gigantic real estate bubble.

Also, I'm really worried about the 2 financing giants; FNMA and GNMA. These two entities are corrupt to the core. Think of a tree that looks OK, but when you get really close, you see holes drilled in the trunk from maggots and such. They're trying to keep a lid on this because this issue alone could create a real estate free-fall. We don't know.
----------------
I agree with you about the "fringe" investors, the ones who get in "on a hope and a prayer". It worries me because there are some real estate "biggies" who encourage these Two-bit investors to get in, even if they have to sell Grandma's teeth.

These people are leveraged to the hilt. I believe they are goaded on by these Real Estate Marketeers. You see their ads in the Sunday paper "make millions on real estate", "buy rental houses for $0 money down", or "buy investment real estate". THESE people sit on the sidelines and wait for these Small Time investors to fold. Then they move in like vultures and pick up the pieces.

Caveat Emptor. Buyer beware.

[David Zephyr]

51. Same experience, jaysunb

I have a dear friend in her 60's now with her Masters in Business and she has CFO'd and CEO'd for some very big non-profit and very progressive corporations, knows the stock and bond markets inside out and she told me: "David, I swear I could have made more money in my life with a junior high school education if I'd just invested every penny in Los Angeles real estate over the last thirty years."

[David Zephyr]

26. Bookmark away, but first define "crash".

The article that I posted suggests that there will be a correction which is typcial of all markets. I agree that there will be a slowing of the appreciation rates and perhaps a 10-15% correction. That would not be a "crash". What would you define as a "crash"?

[Zynx]

38. A crash in the stock market is synonymous with bear market, meaning 20%+

Over time, markets go through periods of over and under performance compared to their historical mean. Typically they do not correct by staying still for protracted periods of time once they far over-shoot, but rather correct and real estate markets do the same as equity markets, though at different rates due to the complex nature of real estate.

Now time for a little rant I have against real estate as an investment:

Over time, real estate is a 5% a year investment for the bulk of the country and carries enormous costs in the way of property taxes, utility bills, mortgage interest(and no you can't write it all off), and other maintenance expenses, plus a hefty real estate commission that eat away a significant portion of that 5% a year gain if not all of it depending on the situation. Sure, you can argue leverage all you want, but even with leverage, a $20,000 gain on $20,000 of equity is chopped significantly by the costs of holding real estate. Frankly, over the long term people are better off holding a diversified equity portfolio(with some protection in form of fixed income securities) in my opinion. You need a lot of money and a lot of skill to be successful in real estate. People always look at the appreciation without factoring in the massive carrying costs. My $3,000 in Procter and Gamble, which has appreciated 80% in five years, has no carrying costs.

[David Zephyr]

50. 20% would not be much.

I wouldn't call 20% a crash. That would be essentially back to last years home prices.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

14. "The two words in real estate to remember: never sell."

Then how do you make money?

[Zynx]

40. Unless you are in a hot market, you don't.

I explain the problems of real estate investing in an above post.

[JusticeForAll]

73. Borrowing on equity....

n/t

[BootinUp]

22. When I suggested caution

it was aimed at people getting into the market, with ARM or interest only loans especially. I agree with you that once you're in the market and have built equity it doesn't make a lot of sense to get out for fear of a crash, drop in value or whatever you want to call it. The only reason to sell your primary residence in my way of thinking is when you want to move somewhere else, or buy another property.

I didn't live there during the time, but IIRC there was a depreciation in value during the early ninties at least in some areas (orange county for instance).

[sweetheart]

15. leaving a shithole... not difficult

Like yourself, i count leaving LA as a blessing. What would the last
20 years have been like had i enjoyed them spending 4 hours per day
in heavy traffic between the sandiego, harbour and santamonica freeways.
.. a waste of good time indeed.

Why would someone born and raised in west LA utopia decide to leave...
it is, in a kernel, the story of the failure of american life, why i
left LA. Why leave LA, when everyone else is trying to get there...
and when every brittany spears has their own private mansion blocking
beach access in malibu, we can detonate the nuclear bombs we planted
25 years ago under their houses, and the nike missile sites will have
prophetically defended america.

Miltary spending is up, and of course, LA, the missile factory pretending
to be a movie studio, is back in the prime... so lets see how big
public pork to military spending brings back the old lies, the old
southern california deception that there is free markets and
entrepreneurialism behind the deception.

[David Zephyr]

48. I hope you feel better now.

:)

[ronnykmarshall]

80. Me too!

Damn! I haven't read a good LA bash in a long time. :eyes:

[livefrom]

16. How much is a 1,500 s.f. 3-bedroom house in LA now?

In a decent neighborhood. They were around $125,000 when I lived there in the '80s. Just curious.

[jaysunb]

18. multiply by 7

or more...no matter the neighborhood.

[livefrom]

19. NFW!!! Are you serious?

[goclark]

21. about $600 -700 Thousand

House up the street, 2 tiny bedrooms, no back yard to speak of,900 T/it is still sitting there for a month or more.

The owner bought it for 600 T last year and it is truly a piece of crap with some new paint and new lights and a few plants in the front.

[trackfan]

28. Mine is 1600 sq. ft. but is probably just below $500,000

[Zynx]

39. And a 4,000 sq. ft. house in SE Wisconsin is $350,000 or so.

That's with 2 acres of land. That's why I love Wisconsin. You can get so much more for your money. With the money you save here, you can take a vacation to a warm spot to avoid the winters and still have lots left over.

[melody]

55. if you mean "LA the region", $500K, if you want LA LA, 1 million

My piece of crap crackerbox two bedroom LA suburb home is worth 250,000. I bought if for a fifth of that 23 years ago. Who says real estate is a bad investment?

[tinrobot]

60. About $700k, actually.

I'm in Silverlake, that's the going rate in this neighborhood for a 1500sf three bedroom.

I know, because I have a 1400sf 3 bedroom and I'm shocked at how high prices have risen. I'm so glad I bought when I did.

[melody]

61. That's Silverlake, I'm talking the LA boonies...Southeast LA, et al

You can still nab one about that size for half a million in that region, but it'll be a "fixer upper" and then some. I live in the northern LA County region, so we're *really* a "subsuburb".

By LA LA, I meant Silverlake and anyone within reasonable distance of Crenshaw.

[ckramer]

23. Tulips! Tulips! Buy now!

Tomorrow it will worth a million!

What's a house?

It's just made of some paper and woods.

[NorthernSpy]

24. why do people live in Los Angeles?

It's blazing hot, it never rains, nothing is within walking distance of anything else, the buildings are not beautiful, and everything looks kind of dirty somehow. If it were really cheap to live there, I could understand, but it's expensive as hell. So why are people willing to pay so much to live in LA?

Especially when there are other towns like San Francisco, which is pretty and has nice weather.


:think:

[onager]

27. Why do people write stupid cliches about Los Angeles?

It's blazing hot...

It depends. The last few days have been like another spring. And I live in one of the hottest parts of the city.

...it never rains...

Last year the rain started the day after Xmas and continued for a solid month. (Actually we had heavy rains in October, which is unusual.) I believe it broke a 19th-century record, or at least didn't miss by much. In fact, the past few years have been unusually rainy.

...nothing is within walking distance of anything else...

It depends on where you live. I'm in walking distance of several nice public parks and a lot of stores etc.

...the buildings are not beautiful...

I guess that's subjective. But the Griffith Observatory is not beautiful? L.A. City Hall? The 19th-century Bradbury Building (most famous for its appearance in "Blade Runner?") The neighborhoods full of early "Craftsman" homes?

Oh, not to mention quite a few buildings designed by former L.A. resident and Lover Of Ugly Buildings, Frank Lloyd Wright.

Especially when there are other towns like San Francisco, which is pretty and has nice weather.

And which has all the problems you mentioned about L.A., along with those damn hills.

"The coldest winter I ever saw was a summer in San Francisco."--Mark Twain

[GRLMGC]

35. God, thank you

I'm sick of snobs who have to bash my hometown whenever they can.

[ronnykmarshall]

81. I love LA

I've lived here since 2005. I also lived in SF from 1986 to 1998 (spent one year in purgatory ... Hayward).

I as much as I miss SF, I love my new home town.

I love to defend LA against the bashers. They don't have a CLUE about Los Angeles.

[goclark]

46. I have lived in three cities and my favorite is Los Angeles

I have lived in the East, Mid West and Los Angeles.

You really nailed it about The City of the Angeles.

The other areas remind me of the phrase, "there is no THERE there."

Other than New York (too cold) and Chicago (too cold) no place can hold a candle to Los Angeles for me.
Well, let me think about that, Paris is spectacular but it is not where my family and friends will be so --nice to visit but not to live there.


I am thrilled to hear others say they don't like it because that makes more room for US!!!!

[shanti]

31. it's NOT blazing hot, and it DOES rain

:eyes: the weather is perfect, that's why, probably the number one reason.

sf is very very expensive, crowded and does not have "nice" weather. it does have a vibrant community and lots to do, see, eat, and buy, which is why people live there.

[NorthernSpy]

42. in LA, the sun is like an evil eye staring down at you all the time...

Rain, fog, and clouds are perfect weather. They are very comforting.

[melody]

57. i love rain, clouds and fog

So I'm retiring part-time to Washington, but I could never give up Southern California.

There are sun people and there are cloud people, I'm somewhere in the middle. If you're a cloud person, you wouldn't be happy in LA.

[ronnykmarshall]

82. Whatever floats your boat.

Like I said, I lived in San Francisco for 13 years and loved it. BUT I can tell you there were MONTHS when we never saw the sun and many a summer when I froze my ass off.

[Zynx]

41. I've been in LA and I wouldn't pay a premium over Wisc. to live there.

If anything, I would say that it should be less since I think the place is such a pisshole. The idea of paying 2,3, or even 4x the Wisconsin price to live in LA is patently offensive to me.

[NorthernSpy]

43. there are beautiful places in Southern California, undeniably...

... but Los Angeles? At these prices, smog included?

Nope. I still don't get it.

:think:

The closest I've ever been to Wisconsin was Southern Ontario -- very nice!

[melody]

56. it's very temperate, it rains quite a bit, and there's ease in the sprawl

AND we have wonderful arts community here, so :P

[NorthernSpy]

58. go ahead -- all you Angelenos can bash New England winters...

... and I won't make the faintest mew in protest.

Fair nuff?

;)

[melody]

59. I love New England winters, too - there's beauty in all things n/t

Was that Swamp Creaturish enough or what?

[ronnykmarshall]

83. Me thinks you just want to bash.

I love New England. I've never lived there, but I've visited (Cape Code) and I think it beautiful.

What's your deal about LA bashing?

[NorthernSpy]

86. Not at all. I just don't see the attraction of that particular town...

... and said so. I don't understand why people consider the expense of living there worth putting up with the year-round sunshine.

You know where it's really great? The Olympic Peninsula. Paradise on earth!

[tinrobot]

62. Obviously, you've never lived here.

Every city has it's advantages/disadvatages.

The weather here is great -- if you're in the city. (I don't consider San Bernardino or other tangetally connected cities to be "Los Angeles", BTW...)

Architecture is mixed, some absolutely terrific, some not so hot, but certainly not homogenous like San Francisco. I lived in San Francisco for years, and quite honestly, I was pretty sick of Victorians by the time I left. I personally own an art deco house here in LA, and live within a mile of two Frank Lloyd Wright houses. If you love old spanish houses or craftsman homes, it's also a great place.

Traffic does suck, but mostly on the west side. I honestly don't have to drive much. LA has lots of little "villages" where you can get just about anything. Here in Silverlake, I walk or ride my bike almost everywhere. I have grocery stores, restaurants, a gym, hardware store, art store, and tons of other things all within blocks of my house. Only when I have to cross town do I drive. But that was the same in San Francisco... I had to drive down the peninsula all the time and the traffic was just as bad.

There's also lots of opportunity here. My particular industry is centered here, so there's no way I could move my career. I'm here to stay, and I've managed to find tons of great things to like about LA.

[NorthernSpy]

69. and I probably won't be moving my complaining little soul next door...

... anytime soon, if those housing prices are to be believed.

:think:

I think that San Francisco is nice because the sun does not glare hatefully at you all day there. The sun and I are not friends. When I visited my aunt in New Orleans several years ago, all that intense sun made me break out in a rash. I spent the rest of the trip trying not to scratch my face off. It was terrible, and I've despised sunshine ever since.

I am happy though, that LA is to your liking.

:)

[ronnykmarshall]

WeHo is the same too.

We park our cars on the weekend and walk. We're right off Santa Monica Blvd and very close to Sunset. So if we want to go to the boy bars we can schlep down the street or if we got to The Strip, it right over the hill.

I love it here.

[ronnykmarshall]

84. WeHo is the same too.

We park our cars on the weekend and walk. We're right off Santa Monica Blvd and very close to Sunset. So if we want to go to the boy bars we can schlep down the street or if we got to The Strip, it right over the hill.

I love it here.

[fujiyama]

63. As much as I love CA

(I have several relatives and a good friend there), I just don't find much appealing about LA.

Everytime I think olf LA I think of traffic and being stuck on the Santa Monica Blvd or the 405. I think of long commutes in a smoggy sprawling city. It seems like you need a car to do anything there.

Several years ago I was in CA and drove down the hwy along the coast from San Francisco to LA. It was a very nice drive and I remember seeing some great places. Santa Barbara seemed nice but I only remember the beaches.

I didn't get to visit San Diego though. It sounds like a nice city, albeit, unfortunately more RW.

BTW, anyone know which region of CA has higher real estate growth? Is it Northern CA or Southern CA? I'm always amused by my cousin telling me the prices out thhere. Then the next day I'm talkin to my friend in Pasadena and he's bitching about it there as well.

I get the impression that N.CA is more expensive but I'm curious about the growth rate.

[NorthernSpy]

68. though I personally find sunshine disturbing, the problem is not...

... really the land itself, but rather all the depressing things that people have done to it.

Here in northern New England, the climate is generally considered harsh and uncooperative, the soil is mostly rocks, and we have rather few resources. To build anything here is real struggle, and has been for centuries. So it's downright baffling to me that people whose territory has so many natural advantages would choose to fill it with freeways and smog and commercial sprawl for as far as the eye can see. I mean, why did they do that?

[Milo_Bloom]

66. ?HUH?

Wow... I am not quite sure where to begin on this. First, I think you are confusing ALL of LA for certain parts of "The Valley"

"Blazing hot"

It rarely gets above 85 on the westside and there is usually a nice breeze.

" it never rains"

Well... I kinda wish it were true, but alas, it does rain and people drive like idiots when it does.

"nothing is within walking distance of anything else"

I almost NEVER use my car. It has a total of 6,000 miles on it for 2 YEARS. Market, walking distance, stores, walking distance, resteraunts, walking distance, fiance's job, walking distance. The only thing we need the car for is going to the movies (about 2 miles away) and over to friend's houses and whatnot. Everything else... walking


"like San Francisco, which is pretty and has nice weather."

:wtf:

There was a quote about this once....

"The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco"-- Mark Twain

[NorthernSpy]

67. where I'm from, 85 degrees is wicked hot...

... and a winter that doesn't go below -20F is mild.

I dunno. Maybe I'm the only person on earth who actually likes cold summers.

One thing that is good about Southern California's climate is the relative lack of thunderstorms. We have some awful ones in the East, although fewer up here.

[MalibuChloe]

75. LA has one of the best climates in the world

300+ beautiful sunny days a year. I wish I hated the sun-I'm sure housing in North Dakota is super cheap.

[NorthernSpy]

77. NoDak is actually pretty sunny because of its dryish climate...

... just wicked, wicked cold. Lowest recorded temperature there was 60 below, I believe.

[shanti]

88. hah!

you'd best stay far far away from the california central valley! it often gets to 100+ degrees in the summer. even i can't handle that kind of heat, but air conditioning is a wonderful invention!

[Starbucks Anarchist]

72. That's why I'm moving to NYC soon.

[mike923]

29. Is this any different than the price of oil or gas?

Think about it, people are paying these prices because they think they are getting a good value, and that the price is going to go up. Same thing with oil, people keep hearing that oil is going to hit $100 per barrel. So an investor keeps hearing this, and they say to themselves, "$65 per barrel is a bargin if it is going to go up 80% in the near future". So they keep driving up the price.

[Caesarmajestic]

32. Hi I live in a box

It's cheaper

[HoosierClarkie]

90. Thats amazing that you have internet access. n/t

[bemildred]

91. Libraries are very cool, it's true. nt

[Occulus]

33. Housing bubble? WHAT bubble? n/t

[mitchtv]

34. Hi david

I'm hoping things will calm down a Bit. Do you know what those condos in the Eastern Blgd will cost? That is my ideal. I am so sorry I left Sonoma Valley to live in Coachella Valley;as much the people as the weather. The house in sonoma was a 45y/o cottage we got almost 1/2 million for it . Traded cogressional reps Lynne Woolsey for Mary Bono, what a let down

[David Zephyr]

47. Hey! Good to hear from you again.

Wow! The L.A. bashing is something else!

I live 2,400 feet up on top of a mountain with the Angeles National Forest at my doorstep and the city lights below. We have deer, bears, mountain lions, rabbits and all the critters in my front yard. Fresh mountain air and can see the dynamic skylines of L.A. and Century City below and the great Pacific Ocean in the far distance.

I love Los Angeles and hope to live a long life still here and die here and be buried here. It is my adopted home and I can't imagine ever living anywhere else on earth.

The Eastern Building! Dude, it is totally tubular (I'm doing this jibe to drive LAPhobes crazy). Seriously, the remake of the old blue Eastern Building looks like a winner to me, mitchtv. The entire downtown of Los Angeles from the Staples Center & the Eastern Building to the new Disney Hall and the lofts and the Eli Broad and Frank Gehry plans for the whole civic center with condo, grocery stores really is mind-blowing. Downtown L.A. is truly becoming a great place to be.



I will see what I can find on the Eastern Building for you. I know how much you miss Sonoma and San Francisco...but I love the desert out there, too. I am a lizzard, I think.

I plan on being out in Palm Springs either this weekend or next. I would like to see you again. Hope you are doing well.

DZ

[ronnykmarshall]

85. Ohmawgawd!

I like sooooooo love that building. It is so bitchin'!

[SerutNorellet]

87. Eastern Columbia Building

The Eastern Columbia Building -- YES! One of my favorite buildings EVER! Turquoise terracotta art deco. I do love Downtown -- there are so many secret treasures there. If ever I move out of Hollywood, I'd love to move to Downtown.

[Zynx]

36. This is exactly like when the stock market outran earnings growth.

The run up in California over the past five years has defied every valuation metric out there just as the stock market defied every valuation metric. People who didn't buy a house two years ago regret it now just as people who didn't get into growth mutual funds in 1998 regretted it in March of 2000. Over time, the long term rate of appreciation in real estate is nothing close to this and the fact that median home prices have so far outstripped median incomes suggests that the housing market, while different from the stock market in a number of key ways, is overvalued. There is no denying that the economics of California do not support $450,000+ median home prices.

[noshenanigans]

37. I've given up buying a house.

I live in Studio City right now, and I love it there, but unless something major changes I can't see ever being able to buy (and I have a fairly decent amount of money for a 25 year old).

It makes me kind of sad, because my mom and dad tell me stories about when they first got married and bought their house and that seems like such a wonderful thing. Since I live where I do, though, I'm just going to have to realize that home ownership is for the "other" people and comfort myself with not having to fix any plumbing or mow a lawn.

[David Zephyr]

49. Studio City and NoHo are sweet.

I lived for years in Hollywood and West Hollywood before giving it up to buy a very small, humble hovel in the boonies. Now, of course I can live anywhere in SoCal I choose, but I had to give up the great apartments that I had (under rent control, too).

Downtown L.A. is about to explode with lots of affordable condos and high rise lofts including the Eastern Building that mitchtv mentioned here. Check out the Eli Broad & Frank Gehry plans.

Don't give up.

[tinrobot]

64. I lived in downtown 10 years ago

Before I bought my house, I had a loft in Japantown. I had 2500sf of clear space with 16 foot ceilings, brick walls, and a huge backyard for $1000/month. The downside was that I felt like I was like living on the edge of civilization, even though I was right in the middle of one of the largest cities in the country. I had to drive 5 miles just to get groceries, for example.

It's amazing what 10 years and a lack of affordable housing will do. I was down there a few weeks ago and hardly recognized my old neighborhood. It's so overbuilt... and of course, they've put in a Starbuck's.

[IndyJones]

44. It is insane. We purchased our home in San Diego three years ago

and no kidding, it has almost doubled in value. Not complaining, but I can't imagine trying to get into the market right now. In 2003 alone, our home increase in value by 35%.

[Neshanic]

45. HGTV "Dump Hunters". Can't believe the houses these

people buy. Yes, it's LA. Yes, it's great weather. But the house is a crap box. One show on "flipping" had a house overlooking a major freeway at 660 grand. Echo Park. Piece of garbage house.

[David Zephyr]

52. "And I'm here in Echo Park" sang the great Linda Rondstadt

Sorry, but I love Echo Park! This is my town. Don't run it down.



"Carmelita" written by Warren Zevon

I hear mariachi static on my radio
And the tubes they glow in the dark
And I'm there with you in Ensenada
And I'm here in Echo Park

Carmelita, hold me tighter
I think I'm sinking down
And I'm all strung out on heroin
On the outskirts of town

Well I pawned my Smith and Wesson
And I went to meet my man
He hangs out down on Alvarado Street
At the Pioneer Chicken stand

Carmelita, hold me tighter
I think I'm sinking down
And I'm all strung out on heroin
On the outskirts of town

Well I'm sittin' here playing solitaire
With my pearl handled deck
The county won't give me no more methadone
And they cut off your welfare check

Carmelita, hold me tighter
I think I'm sinking down
And I'm all strung out on heroin
On the outskirts of town

Carmelita, hold me tighter
I think I'm sinking down
And I'm all strung out on heroin
On the outskirts of town

[GRLMGC]

53. I love the hills

We went to shoot pictures around the hilly neighborhoods and it was really beautiful in an urban way.

[onager]

54. I hear you...

I'll admit I still get a little breathless when I'm coming "over the hill" from LAX at night, on the 405.

That stretch of freeway along the hills is so dark--you'd never know the city is right at your back.

Then you crest the hill and WHAM--the whole San Fernando Valley is lit up beneath you, looking like some incredilble alien mother-ship just landed from a distant galaxy.

The dig against L.A. that I love is that we have no history.

Pfft! How many cities can boast a citizen like the amazing Col. Griffith Jenkins Griffith?

Imagine a man who gives over 3,000 acres of land to his adopted hometown for a park, and then donates a fortune to build a popular observatory/planetarium/hall of science and a large open-air theater.

Imagine a man who enrages many of his peers with long years of insufferable pomposity and then shoots his well-regarded high-society wife in a paranoid delusion that she is in league with the Pope to poison him and steal his money.

Imagine if they were the same man.

You've just imagined one of the most unimaginable characters in the history of Los Angeles, Col. Griffith J. Griffith...

http://english.glendale.cc.ca.us/colonel.html

(BTW, stop by and say "Howdy!" to Col. Griffith if you visit L.A. He's buried in Hollywood Memorial Cemetery, and you can't miss his monument...)

[Milo_Bloom]

65. Don't believe the HYPE!

I live in LA... My fiance and I are actually looking to buy a condo in Brentwood and we have been watching prices steadily slip over the past few months. I have watched some condos drop as much as 100,000. Granted the price is still high ($675,000) after the drop, but prices here were ABSOLUTELY higher 3 months ago when we started searching.

You can keep an eye on real estate prices in LA at this link
http://guests.themls.com/

3 months ago you couldn't get a HOUSE in Brentwood for under 1.5 million, now there are 7 listings and most of them are because they had to drop price since they have been on the market for months.

3 Months ago, the concept of getting a 2 bed room condo for under 600,000 was a pipe dream... Now there is even one under 500,000 and 6 total under 600,000 and again, because they have been on the market for several months now.

Now granted this is the super high end market in Los Angeles, but it does show that things aren't quite SURGING the way they want you to keep believing. I see these articles and then I see the listings and more and more I believe the articles are just plain old HYPE meant to get people thinking they HAVE to buy now.

I have had so many mortgage brokers try and tell me that I HAVE TO buy now or I will be priced out because real estate NEVER goes down. I ask them if they remember the late 80's and early 90's when the CA market fell apart for a time and people abandonded their houses because it was economically viable to do so (their mortage was higher than the estimated value of their house).

If you live in and around LA... take a drive through the westside... Check out how many buildings are doing conversions from Apartments to condos (at least 4 within 2 blocks of me right now). One was done 2 months ago and the same units have been on the market for those 2 months, dropped about 20,000 per week, each week.

This condo (http://guests.themls.com/profile_page.cfm?mls=05-023819) it was $879 when it came on the market. This one (http://guests.themls.com/profile_page.cfm?mls=05-051281) It was $879 as well, but they took it off and then relisted it last week at over $100,000 off. This one started at 899,000 (http://guests.themls.com/profile_page.cfm?mls=05-042385) This one was $549 just two weeks ago (http://guests.themls.com/profile_page.cfm?mls=05-050319 the broker who is selling his one has called me 3 times b/c I went to look at it).

Hype Hype Hype and little more!

[Zorro]

89. I'm with you

We actually sold our condo in Brentwood in February, because we didn't see how prices could be sustained. Perhaps we were too hasty in our decision, but I don't think so.

We're sitting on the sidelines for another 6 months at least until we get more comfortable with the direction of the market. The market in our San Diego neighborhood seems to be stagnant, and there seems to be a lot more MLS listings and FSBO signs around.

[madmark]

71. Phx home prices went up approx 25% the past year, a lot of it

is Ca equity cashing out and coming hear, along with equity investors across the country, and around the world, buying phx residential real estate instead of market securities as investments. Prices are disconnecting from the local incomes of the end users. And a disproportionate share of the income of the end users is now going to housing in costs instead of other things. Short term equity windfalls for sellers who do not roll all their proceeds in a new home are being quickly dissipated in six months to a year of easy living and spending. What's unique now is that for the time being local conditions are not controlling the housing prices. The out of state investors are controlling them. And I think at some point these investors will be unwilling or unable to finance the growing gap between what the end users can pay for housing and cost of carrying the financing on the real property investment and we will see an unusually sharp correction. That said I do not see the pull back going below levels we had ten years ago and permanent higher housing costs are here to stay.

[symbolman]

76. We left Carpinteria, CA

and moved to Hawaii because housing over a year ago was cheaper HERE than LA, and since we do all of our work on the web we figured we could live anywhere..

So we picked a place (they have "ohanas" here) with a 2 bedroom/kitchen cabin in the back and both a downstairs 3 bedroom section (full kitchen, etc, two bathrooms)and a Studio as well which pays our mortgage while we live in the upstairs part..

Ohanas are the big scene here, everyone pretends not to have these rentals in their homes, when inspectors come in you just unhook the fridge and stove and pull them away from the way and say it's a Rec room - then when they leave you rent the room/studio/house out..

All we have to do is earn money for our future, food, living costs, savings, etc - and then go to the beach whenever..

It's paradise, and while we were waiting for the deal to close the house actually went up over a 100K..

NO traffic, 8 miles to the airport, friendly locals, beautiful every where you look..

YOu can keep LA :)

[ronnykmarshall]

79. Bought our place in 1999 for $198K

we can sell it now for close to $700K