STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 15 September

[ozymandius]

Thursday September 15, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 128 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 269 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 333 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1390
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 14, 2005

Dow... 10,544.90 -52.54 (-0.50%)
Nasdaq... 2,149.33 -22.42 (-1.03%)
S&P 500... 1,227.16 -4.04 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.17% +0.03 (+0.82%)
Gold future... 453.70 +3.70 (+0.82%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

MARKETS STRUGGLE FOR DIRECTION

Markets are showing very little volatility as traders grapple for direction. Stocks opened higher with good reports from the Wall Street brokers, then dipped the line and hovered near breakeven as we approached the lunch hour. Treasury bonds and notes are dead flat with a small bid in the 30-year bond and the dollar is modestly lower versus all major currencies except the Canadian dollar, which is higher by 7.5% against the dollar since late May. Overall the markets are still trying to sort-out the near-term impacts of the destruction on the Gulf Coast, with a keen focus on energy supply and the impact higher energy costs will have on Fed policy and interest rates.

-cut-

Market analysts on CNBC are busy finding all the “good stuff” in the retail sales figures as they split hairs on the headline number versus the core numbers ex-autos and gasoline. The hurricane was cause for some of the weakness at the end of the month, but let’s face it…how many more widgets and superfluous gadgets do we need from China? I expect retail sales to decline further. They will need to do something to make sure consumption remains strong through the Holiday Season. As Retail Sales wane in the U.S., let’s have a look at the developments in Japan and China. On Monday Bloomberg ran the headline, “Japan’s Economy Grew Three Times Faster Than Expected.” Following the unexpected growth report out of Japan we got August Retail Sales figures from China yesterday. Chinese Retail Sales rose 12.5% year over year in August versus growth of 12.7% the previous month as Chinese incomes rise. China also reported foreign direct investment fell 3% since the beginning of this year. I believe money is coming out of China and other nations as U.S. corporations take advantage of tax incentives to repatriate funds back to our shores. More on that as time permits.

Another headline came from the Federal Reserve as they reported August industrial output rose 0.1% after consensus expectations called for a gain of 0.3%. The final week of August was negatively affected by shutdowns of oil and gas production in the Gulf. Economists are expecting a much bigger drop in the September numbers with a rebound coming in October and November. All we can do for now is monitor the situation in the Gulf for energy imports/production and export shipments (especially the grain products at harvest) from the operations in the Port of New Orleans.

Today the Energy Department announced a much bigger than expected draw in crude inventories of 6.6 million barrels, while expectations called for a draw of only two million barrels. Analysts expected the lack of refining capacity to moderate the drop in crude inventory, but not so! Distillate inventories were expected to come in flat, but instead declined by 1.1 million barrels. As I write, crude is up $1.09 to $64.20, unleaded gas is slightly higher to 1.90 a barrel, heating oil for December is higher by 4.5 cents to $1.956, and natural gas for December is 14 cents higher to $12.01/Mbtu’s. At the beginning of 2002 natural gas cost just over $2.00 per million btu’s and crude oil cost $19.00 a barrel!!! Three years later we have natural gas FIVE TIMES more expensive with crude and distillate products more than THREE TIMES higher. Discretionary spending is on the ropes…the consumer is getting tapped-out!

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil Prices Hold Above $65 Per Barrel

BUDAPEST, Hungary - Crude-oil prices rose Thursday, holding above $65 a barrel after U.S. petroleum data showed a decline in crude stocks but a rise in gasoline inventories — suggesting that soaring prices are undercutting U.S. gasoline demand.

"The market is concentrating on the bigger picture, which shows that four major U.S. refineries are still out, the gasoline market is still pretty tight coupled with a further draw shown in yesterday's stock report," said Orrin Middleton, energy analyst with Barclays Capital in London.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery rose 31 cents to $65.40 a barrel in European electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

more

[ozymandius]

3. Stocks Set to Open Up on Economic Data

NEW YORK - U.S. stock futures are trading higher Thursday ahead of a session to be dominated by economic data, including jobless claims and the consumer price index reports.

Dow Jones futures were recently up 18 points, while Nasdaq futures were ahead 2 points and S&P futures were up 1.8 point.

-cut-

In corporate news, consumer-products maker Newell Rubbermaid will slash more than 5,000 jobs and close a third of its 80 manufacturing plants as part of a restructuring aimed at cutting $120 million a year in costs by 2008. The initiative will result in $295 million to $340 million in restructuring charges, beginning with about $185 million to $210 million in charges for 2006.

Blackstone Group is close to an agreement to acquire UICI, a nontraditional health-insurance company, in a deal that will involve about $1.2 billion in equity, one of the largest equity investments the firm has made, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday. Management of the insurer will contribute about $100 million to the buyout, people familiar with the matter said. Blackstone is expected to sell about $250 million of equity in the deal to two other investment firms, including DLJ Merchant Banking Partners, the private-equity arm of Credit Suisse Group's Credit Suisse First Boston.

more

[fasttense]

20. This is exactly what the GATA report said the Feds do when the market

drops. The Feds buy up index future contracts.

"NEW YORK - U.S. stock futures are trading higher Thursday....
Dow Jones futures were recently up 18 points, while Nasdaq futures were ahead 2 points and S&P futures were up 1.8 point."

According to the GATA report:

"the central bank....enpowered to stabilize plunging stock markets by purchasing stock index futures contracts. Such a move would force the underlying index to rise."

So if you know the market is rigged, what stocks should you buy? Or should you just stay out of the whole game?

[ozymandius]

30. I have one more question.

How much is your stock portfolio really worth if the Fed has been artificially inflating the value?

[fasttense]

32. Good point. Maybe I'll just wait awhile. n/t

[AnneD]

44. It is easy to figure that out....

It will be worth the equivalent of a 4 pack of toilet tissue. And it will work very much the same way.
:donut: Morning Marketeers...Hope you have a good day, happy honeymoon...what ever. Wall St and Bush popularity polls---finally in sync. Happy Hunting and ....watch out for the bears

[54anickel]

79. Trader Tracks Trading Alert (For what's it's worth)

Tomorrow is triple witching day (aka Freaky Friday). I Iossiff touched on that earlier this week. Perhaps this will be an atypcial week after all. :shrug:

From the Tues night wrap-up -
Next week we have options expiration, and usually, options expiration weeks tend to have a positive bias. In addition, the price pattern associated with a positive options expiration week is characterized by weakness on Monday and Tuesday, followed by strength Wednesday thru Friday. Therefore, early on we will be looking for confirmation that the week will turn out to be a typical options expiration week. If we have weakness on Monday and Tuesday but price is contained above support, we will expect the rally to resume by Wednesday and last until Friday. On the other hand, if the indices rally on Monday and Tuesday, it would imply that we are dealing with an "atypical" options expiration week, and thus, we will re-evaluate as we go based on the technical readings that are associated with the rally.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/wiegand/wiegand091505.html

We have previously alerted our readers to the potential of a large stock market selling event. It is our opinion the time is very close. We have worked extensively to re-check several indicators and most all of them are aligning for major stock market selling session(s).

As you know, we forecast a Dow low of 8450 by December 1, 2005. For this to occur from today's price this means a decline of nearly 2,000 points. We think most of our readers have protected themselves from this event using a variety of precautionary tools. However, this kind of selling is bound to take down some precious metals stocks temporarily with the mainstream investments. You all know the tools of prevention. Tighten stops, take profits if you have some strong positions and buy more gold and silver stock option calls if and when those PM stock prices sell off in a drop.

In our opinion, the Dow selling will be steady and orderly with smaller selling days at the beginning. We now believe the first substantial down day could be this Friday 9-16-05. If on this date we see a drop of at least 150 Dow points to the close, expect heavier selling on the following Monday and especially Tuesday, September 20. Previous Dow selling periods tended toward selling chunks of 400 points. There is no real rule of thumb on this that was just history. The Exchange has circuit breakers built in to prevent a major cascade and runaway market. They simply will not let this happen. However, when circuit breakers are lifted sellers can hit the market again until they are stopped again.

Here are the reasons for our sending this alert: Oil has bottomed and is rising again. Gold had mild selling and recovered. Today gold prices were rising in the after hours markets. The U.S. Dollar is weak and getting weaker. Next we see .8500 support for the dollar. The Transportation Index fell apart and is a major dow selling indicator when it sells. Retailing reports came in very weak. Some retail forecasters are already forecasting a weak Christmas sales event. Housing has a huge head and shoulders top and three major housing indicators all went negative. Bonds are looking weak and the very large health care sector sold off today. The pros are buying OEX PUTS with both hands.

[54anickel]

81. The Real Lesson From Katrina

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff091405.html

Apparently, New Orleans residents believed that their situation was the exception that proved Murphy's Law. Though the inability of New Orleans' levee system to withstand a category four hurricane was apparently widely known, rather then doing something preemptive to fortify it, the people and their government decided to do nothing and hope for the best. So each year, they played a version of Hurricane Russian Roulette, and until 2005, the cartridge was always empty. Over the years those expressing concern about the potential for just such a disaster were likely labeled as being ìfear mongers, "Chicken Littles," or "Gloom and Doomers," and their warnings likely dismissed, both due to the dire nature of their forecasts, and the number of years that had passed without consequence.

Unfortunately the situation in New Orleans is a microcosm of our nation as a whole. Although our reliance on foreign savings and production are widely known, and most economists accept the fact that a real economic disaster would ensue should foreigners discontinue such subsidies, dump their hoards of U.S. treasuries, and refuse to exchange real goods for paper dollars. However, rather than perusing policies to rebalance our economy, we simply do nothing, and hope that day of reckoning never arrives.

Politicians, of course, never think past the next election. Diverting resources to fortify levees in advance of a potential hurricane would not have garnered Louisiana bureaucrats many votes. Similarly, allowing a recession to run its course today to prevent a more severe one from developing in the future finds few supporters on Capitol Hill.

However, just as that strategy backfired in New Orleans, so too will it for America as a whole. The financial equivalent of Hurricane Katrina is currently forming in the East, and our economic levees are just as vulnerable as were their real counterparts in New Orleans. As Katrina takes its toll on the U.S. economy, potentially prompting the Fed to ease off on much-needed, and long overdue, interest rate hikes, another "conundrum" is likely to develop. Just as a series of quarter point rate hikes did not produce a much anticipated corresponding rise in long-term yields (the conundrum,) the cessation of such increases ironically might. Just when the Fed wants to help the economy by not raising short-term rates, the market may finally do the opposite, by moving long-term rates much higher. It has been the anticipation of future rate hikes that has been propping up the dollar. Remove that prop, and the Fed's rate-cutting levee will fail, as it will be overwhelmed by a storm surge of foreign selling.

[WhiteTara]

66. MHO....stay out. Invest in yourself

Save your money. Don't play with the crooks.

[UpInArms]

4. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.99 Change +0.32 (+0.37%)

For Euro and Dollar – Its Show-Me Time

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3471&Itemid=39

Its déjà vu all over again in the FX market as EUR/USD makes is its listless journey between 1.2250-1.2300 once again. The pair has spent the last 48 hours in this mind numbingly boring range as the market appears torn between dollar bulls who are betting that yield differentials and sustained US growth will carry the day and euro longs who fear that structural problems will catch up with the US economy sooner rather than later.

Yesterday’s US Trade Balance shed little light on the debate, as the headline number printed below expectations but in non-seasonally adjusted terms was actually the biggest deficit ever. Traders will look forward to Friday’s TICS report to get a better sense of the US Balance Sheet position. Last month TICS showed a $71 Billion surplus, more than offsetting the Trade Balance deficit.

In the meantime, today’s calendar brings Advanced Retail Sales which are expected to decline by –1.4% on a month over month basis, though ex-autos the number is projected to rise 0.5% vs. 0.3% the period prior. We have been quite concerned about the global slowdown in consumption, with tonight’s Tokyo Department Store Sales (-6.1% y/y – biggest decline in 14 months) only the latest example of this unwelcome trend. If G-3 consumers, pinched by higher oil prices, begin retrenching as we approach the Christmas season, the risks of global economic contraction will increase markedly. Just like an unemployed worker with the largest credit card debts to his name, it will be the US economy with its negative savings rate that will suffer the most should this bleak scenario pan out. On the other hand if oil retreats from its highs, the boost to consumption via lower energy costs may spur growth once more and may well vindicate the dollar bulls. For now with uncertainly in Europe over the German elections offset by the uncertainly over the post-Katrina health of the US consumer, the market appears be in a “Show-Me” mode as it goes nowhere.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Dollar on split path as mixed bag of U.S. data scrutinized

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38610.3730368634-842472384&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar was left to trade mixed against its major counterparts following a barrage of U.S. economic statistics Thursday morning. The dollar was last trading at 110.18 yen compared to 110.30 yen before reports that showed a spike in jobless benefits claims and tame core consumer inflation. The two reports argue for caution on the part of the Federal Reserve, which is meeting next week to debate interest-rate policy. Other reports, including a reduction in business inventories and a respectable reading for a measure of New York-area manufacturing were being used to argue in favor of another modest Fed rate hike. The dollar remained firmer, if off its earlier highs, against the euro and the pound. The euro was changing hands at $1.2214 compared to $1.2226 ahead of the reports. It's down 0.5% from late Wednesday. The pound was at $1.8073, down 0.8% on the day.

Last trade 87.93 Change +0.26 (+0.30%)

Settle 87.67 Settle Time 23:36

Open 87.96 Previous Close 87.67

High 88.15 Low 87.62

Last tick: 2005-09-15 08:31:12 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

95. Dollar lifted by rate-hike implication seen in Fed report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38610.517800706-842497335&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar got an additional boost against the euro and turned positive against the Japanese yen following a regional manufacturing report from Philadelphia that contained enough of a whiff of inflation to support bets for higher Federal Reserve interest rates. The dollar stood at 110.54 yen in recent trading, compared to 110.44 yen just ahead of the noon, Eastern time, report. The dollar is up 0.2% against the yen compared to where it stood late Wednesday. The euro fell to $1.2209 vs. $1.2221. It's down 0.6% on the day against the dollar.

[54anickel]

102. Germany: Where “Grand” is not Good

http://www.forexnews.com/AI/default.asp

On May 22, 2005, Chancellor Schroeder’s SPD party suffered a crushing defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia at the hands of Angela Merkel’s opposition CDU party, ending the SPD’s 39-year reign in Germany’s most populous state and prompting Schroeder to call for early elections. After Schroeder intentionally lost a vote of confidence in the lower house of parliament on July 1, 2005, President Koehler dissolved the Bundestag and new elections were scheduled for September 18, 2005.

Given the fact that the CDU enjoyed more public support than the SPD, Schroeder’s decision to force early elections was seen as a bold political move, designed to catch his opponents off-guard. Until recently, however, this plan seemed to have backfired on the chancellor. Indeed, many small business owners, whose companies account for 50% of Germany’s GDP and 70% of its jobs, were elated at the prospect of a coalition between the CDU and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) as evidenced by the increased optimism found within the Ifo’s expectations index, which posted its third monthly increase to reach a 6-month high in August.

The Mittelstand, as these small enterprises are known, has been the hardest hit by the economic malaise that has gripped Germany (and much of Europe, for that matter) and has been clamoring for the government to implement much-needed economic reforms. However, these reforms have failed to materialize under the stewardship of Chancellor Schroeder and his Red-Green coalition (referring to the respective colors of the SPD and the Green party). With unemployment still near historically high levels at 11.6% and the country mired in economic stagnation, it is not only small business owners that are demanding change.

Apart from his Agenda 2010 – a package of labor reforms and social security changes – Chancellor Schroeder has been unable (or, perhaps, unwilling) to further reform the German social market economy. With its solid grip on the Bundesrat, Germany’s upper house of parliament, a CDU victory on Sunday in the lower house, it is widely believed, would place them in a better position to implement the many reforms they have discussed, which is seen as very positive, not only for Germany, but Europe and its common currency as well.

To reinstate or not to reinstate, that is the question

more...

[UpInArms]

5. Today's Reports: (It's MaeveDay!)

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Sep 15	8:30 AM		Business Inventories	Jul	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	-	
Sep 15	8:30 AM		Core CPI		Aug	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	
Sep 15	8:30 AM		CPI			Aug	-	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	-	
Sep 15	8:30 AM		Initial Claims		09/10	-	350K	350K	319K	-	
Sep 15	8:30 AM		NY Empire State Index	Sep	-	15.0	15.5	23.0	-	
Sep 15	12:00 PM	Philadelphia Fed	Sep	-	10.0	13.3	17.5	-

[UpInArms]

11. Reports pouring in: Weekly Claims at 398,000 (not all Katrina have filed)

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. SEPT. EMPIRE STATE PRICE PAID INDEX HIGHEST SINCE MARCH

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. SEPT. EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX 53.4 VS 29.0 AUG.

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. SEPT. EMPIRE STATE JOB INDEX 12.9 VS 10.2 IN AUG.

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. SEPT. NEW ORDERS INDEX 13.1 VS 33.8 IN AUG.

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. SEPT. EMPIRE STATE INDEX ABOVE CONSENSUS 16.6

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. SEPT. EMPIRE STATE INDEX 17.0 VS 23.0 IN AUG.

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. JULY BUSINESS INVENTORIES FALL 0.5% ON AUTOS

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. AUG. MEDICAL PRICES UNCHANGED

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. REAL EARNINGS FALL 1.1% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. AUG. CPI SHELTER PRICES FLAT

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. AUG. CPI ENERGY PRICES RISE 5%

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. CORE CPI UP 2.1% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. CPI UP 3.6% YEAR-OVER-YEAR, MOST IN 4 YEARS

8:30am 09/15/05 LARGE UPWARD REVISION TO CLAIMS LIKELY: DOL

8:30am 09/15/05 WEEKLY CLAIMS DON'T REFLECT ALL KATRINA FILINGS: DOL

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 71,000 TO 398,000

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. AUG. CORE CPI UP 0.1% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

8:30am 09/15/05 U.S. AUG. CPI UP 0.5% AS EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

13. U.S. Sept. Empire State index 17.0 vs 23.0 in Aug.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38610.3542072801-842468750&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area slipped in September, but remained positive in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index fell to 17.0 in September from 23.0 in August. Readings over zero indicate expansion. The decline was roughly in line with expectations. Economists were expecting the index to slip to 16.6. The biggest impact of Katrina came in the form of higher prices. The price index jumped more than 20 points to 53.4 in September, its highest level since March. Expectations of price increases over the next six months jumped to record highs.

[UpInArms]

69. New York State manufacturing growth slows in Sept.

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-09-15T141535Z_01_N15718495_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-NYFED-EMPIRE-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Growth at New York State factories slowed in September for a second straight month, bogged down by fewer orders and higher costs, the New York Federal Reserve said on Thursday.

The New York Fed's 'Empire State' index of overall conditions for manufacturers fell to 16.97 from August's 23.04, pretty much in line with market expectations.

The median forecast in a Reuters survey of economists last week had pegged the number at 16.90.

A reading above zero denotes growth.

The New York Fed conducted the survey from Sept. 1 to 14, after Hurricane Katrina slammed parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. U.S. weekly jobless claims up 71,000 to 398,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BBCB36363-B3F2-41EE-9C28-4601B55223D1%7D&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time filings for state unemployment benefits jumped by 71,000 to 398,000 last week, but the figure does not reflect all hurricane-related jobless claims, the Labor Department said Thursday. About 68,000 claims related to Hurricane Katrina were reported by the states to the Labor Department, but state officials say they have many more claims in the works, a spokesman said. The reported increase matched the average forecast of Wall Street economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The four-week average of new claims rose to 340,750, the highest in nearly a year. Meanwhile, the number of Americans continuing to collect benefits increased by 20,000 to 2.59 million.

[UpInArms]

21. Hurricane Katrina swells ranks of U.S. unemployed

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-09-15T123016Z_01_N14728361_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-JOBLESS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 15 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless aid shot up by 71,000 last week, the biggest jump in nearly 10 years, as workers displaced by Hurricane Katrina sought to join the benefit rolls, the government said on Thursday.

The rise in first-time claims for state unemployment aid, among the first economic data to capture the human toll of the devastating storm, brought initial filings in the week ended Sept. 10 to 398,000, the highest level in two years.

The Labor Department estimated that 68,000 of those claims were related to Katrina, which slammed into the U.S. Gulf Coast on Aug. 29. However, it cautioned that it was unable to process the huge surge in claims that were filed as state workers waded into evacuee shelters to log applications.

"Due to the unprecedented volume of claims filed in the affected areas and due to the unconventional methods used in filing, the numbers that are reported do not truly reflect the number of claims filed," a department analyst said.

He said the department could not offer a "ballpark" figure on how many claims had been collected but not yet captured in the department's report. "We are expecting an upward revision in the following week," he said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. U.S. Aug. CPI up 0.5%, core up 0.1%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BC524C001-1308-487B-87EA-7FB82EDAE4A9%7D&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Core inflation remained contained in August, with the core consumer price index rising 0.1% for the fourth straight month, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Soaring energy prices pushed the overall CPI to a second-straight 0.5% increase, the department said. Core inflation data were slightly better than the 0.2% expected. The 0.5% rise in the overall CPI was as expected. Energy prices increased 5%, the biggest increase in more than two years. In the past year, the CPI is up 3.6%, the biggest year-over-year increase since early 2001. The core rate, however, is up a more 2.1% in the past year, the same as in July.

[ozymandius]

16. UIA, do you remember many months ago when Bush stood before a

crowd of (screened) factory workers and patted himself on the back about creating 21,000 jobs in one month? I am trying to remember when that was. For whatever reason - that news clip just started playing in my head when I read these job numbers.

[UpInArms]

19. was that during the 2004 campaign when he did that staged

"Ask President Bush" crappola?

[ozymandius]

26. could be

It could have been earlier though. Seems like it was after he received all that bad press about losing over 2 million jobs on his watch. The first month the numbers went positive, he staged his "big time announcement". An odd thing happened at the location where the announcement was made. A month after Bush announced his triumphant 21k jobs increase - that factory announced layoffs of several hundred people.

It's not really important in the grand scheme of things - just some trivia that popped into my head that was somehow spurred by today's unemployment numbers.

[54anickel]

29. I remember that - the picture was on the cover of an IAM magazine

The boxes in the background had tape covering the "made in China" label (seriously!). It was in Ohio, at a factory that suffered large lay-off about a year after that photo-op. I'll see if I can find it.

[UpInArms]

33. oh, that was the Timken plant in Ohio

http://www.timken.com/media/speeches/bush.asp

date: April 24, 2003
audience: Timken associates and government officials

9:56 A.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT: Thank you all, very much. (Applause.) Thanks a lot. (Applause.) Thanks for the warm welcome. I appreciate you letting me come by to say hello. (Laughter.) I'm honored to be in Canton, and I'm honored to be here at the Timken Company.

Tim was telling me that you all have been in business since 1899 – turns out that's when William McKinley, of Canton, slept in the same room I'm sleeping in. (Laughter.) Tim told me that this is a company - we are a "roll up your sleeves" company, a can – it is a can-do environment. Which is one of the reasons I've got so much optimism about the future of our economy – because of the "roll up your sleeves" attitude by thousands of our fellow Americans, because of the business sense of "we can do whatever it takes to overcome the obstacles in our way". I know you're optimistic about the future of this company. I'm optimistic about the future of our country. It's important that Washington, however, respond to some of the problems we face.

One of the problems we face is not enough of our fellow Americans can find work. There's too much economic uncertainty today. And so three months ago, I sent Congress a package that would promote job growth and economic vitality. For the sake of our country, for the sake of the workers of America, Congress needs to pass this jobs growth package soon. (Applause.)



...more...

and then ...

http://www.opensecrets.org/bush/ambassadors/timken.asp

President Bush nominated Ohio industrialist and major GOP contributor William Timken, Jr. in July 2005 to serve as ambassador to Germany. The post had previously been held by former Republican Sen. Daniel Coats.

The long-time head of the Timken Company, an automotive and industrial parts manufacturer, Timken was previously nominated by President Bush to serve as chairman of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation. Timken’s decision to shutter three Canton-area factories and cut nearly 1,300 jobs became fodder for Democrats during the 2004 campaign. One year before the layoffs, Bush visited a Timken plant to tout his job creation plan. Although Timken is of German descent, he has no diplomatic experience and does not speak German. According to a White House spokesperson, the president chose Timken because of his reputation as an “experienced executive.”

Timken and his immediate family made $568,239 in federal political contributions during the 2000, 2002 and 2004 election cycles. Of that total, $12,000 went directly to the Bush campaigns and another $100,000 went to the first Bush inaugural committee. Separately, Timken’s company directed $250,000 to the president’s second inaugural committee. None of the family's contributions went to Democrats. Timken also served as finance co-chair of the president’s re-election effort in Ohio and was listed as a Bush Ranger for the 2004 campaign, a title given to those who raised more than $200,000 for the president.

...more...

[54anickel]

35. Are you thinking of this one? Not the one I was thinking of from Ohio

but looks more like you described.

[ozymandius]

39. I remember that one - another controversy.

Violating federal law, Bush's minions covered up the "Made in China" labels on the boxes. As for the sham job creation pep talk - I can't be sure.

[AnneD]

46. Ozy..UIA

Was this Canton Ohio or Canton China? A coinkidink...hmmm. It may have been staged in a hanger in China and those new jobs were what he had created during the week---IN CHINA. I smell a coverup. Were the photos adobe photo shopped to cover the crowd.
edited as usual for my awful spelling..

[UpInArms]

17. U.S. July business inventories fall 0.5% on autos

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B63764323-95CF-459F-8CA3-2D9E492B2C69%7D&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Inventories at U.S. businesses unexpectedly fell by 0.5% in July, while sales rose 1.1%, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Automobile and auto parts inventories declined by 5.4%. Economists polled by MarketWatch had been looking for a rise of 0.1% in inventories. Retail inventories decreased by 1.8%, while retail inventories excluding motor vehicles were flat.

[sando]

64. That certainly couldn't have anything to do with

The cost of gasoline??!! My one prediction is get ready to have bail out the auto industry again as once more the supply of oil is supposedly gone and the price of gas has just about doubled as it did in the early 70's. And once again Americans are driving huge monster cars and trucks. It's all too familiar.

[ozymandius]

18. I wish Maeve were here to explain some fundamentals.

Maeve keeps in her head vital stats concerning how much job growth we need to keep pace with the number of people entering the work force and historical data. It seems that we need tens of thousands of jobs created each month just to keep pace with the number of sixteen-year-olds entering the work force. Anyone have the exact fugure?

[Maeve]

31. The figure you want is @150,000 per month

Just to keep up with the population growth. We also still have a bit of back-log from all the job loss we had in Dubya's first term to deal with.

[ozymandius]

36. Thanks Maeve.

The number makes me shudder to think that we had widespread job losses in Bush's first term that have not been recouped. Plus we've been falling behind in supplying jobs to a growing population.

Absolutely stupefying!

[punpirate]

49. The key to understanding that is to look at total employment...

... rather than the advertised unemployment rate. It's a better indicator. As I recall, right around the time of Bush's second fraudulent inauguration, the total employment was 2-300,000 shy of total employment at time of his first fraudulent inauguration. Taking Jan., 2001, total employment, then adding (48 x 150,000) would give the figure required in Jan., 2005, just to stay even. So, in actuality, Bush is down about 7.5 million jobs. The ones he picked up over the big losses in 2001 and 2002 are mostly in chicken-plucking and burger-flippin'.

Cheers, Ozy. (Great cartoon pick, especially for today. Hoping for the best for all you Delta rank-and-file.)

[ozymandius]

55. stunning numbers to say the least

and yes... the meat packing plant is always hiring.

About Delta:

Insider friends of mine at Delta have told me that the company was considering Chapter 11 even when it was not necessary. There are great financial incentives to this: First, landing/gate fees are halved. Second, fuel taxes are sharply reduced. Third, It also loosens the company's holding of pension obligations.

This was being considered more than a year ago. I suppose they needed to build up some cash reserve to weather the obvious drawback to bankruptcy: creditors call in the debts.

I wish all the rank-and-file nothing but sterling luck.

[punpirate]

58. The debt is an issue...

... that could upset the other applecart--an article yesterday put Delta's outstanding debt at something like $20 billion....

[RawMaterials]

42. I bet that number does not include all the immigrants

or does it? Illegal or Legal.

[AnneD]

48. Thanks Maeve..

How do you come to that number (not that I doubt it for one minute). I have more faith with info I get here than MSM. Are these derived from census stats. 150K seems like an awful lot. Sorry if you have answered this before. You're a marv Maeve...

[Maeve]

61. Nah, I'm just a researcher with a good memory

I did a quick search for "job creation needed" and found this article from 2004 that says 103K is too few, enough to confirm my memory of the 150K figure. Can't search the DU archives right now for better sources :eyes:

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/buzz/archive/buzz041008.htm

[AnneD]

93. Ain't it the truth...

:beer: a toast to those brain cell of yours Maeve. I toasted my cell with Guinness along time ago. Thank God for redundancy-the data is there, it just takes me longer to access.

[UpInArms]

82. Holy Shit! Philly Fed down to 2.2

12:01pm 09/15/05 U.S. SEPT. PHILLY FED PRICES PAID 52.7 VS. 25.9 IN AUG.

12:00pm 09/15/05 U.S. SEPT. PHILLY FED INDEX BELOW 12.3 CONSENSUS

12:00pm 09/15/05 U.S. SEPT. PHILLY FED 2.2 VS.17.6 IN AUG.

12:01pm 09/15/05 U.S. SEPT. PHILLY FED NEW ORDERS -0.5 VS. 19.8 IN AUG.

(updated line items)

(updating again to add employment line item)

12:02pm 09/15/05 U.S. SEPT. PHILLY FED JOB INDEX 2.7 VS. 6.3 IN AUG.

[UpInArms]

84. Philly Fed Activity comes to screeching halt

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38610.5033619444-842495004&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region slowed significantly in September, but remained barely above negative territory, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday. The Philly Fed's activity index fell to 2.2 in September from 17.5 in August. The decline was much larger than expected. Economists were expecting the index to slip to 12.3, according to a MarketWatch survey.

[54anickel]

85. Uh-oh! How they gonna "splain" all that? Bit tough to blame Katrina

of ALL of those "surprises".

[UpInArms]

88. Spin Ahoy!

Philly Fed index slow sharply in Sept

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0C6524B4%2D94C3%2D470C%2D8193%2D7B1FBC6402E7%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region slowed significantly in September in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, but remained barely above negative territory, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday.

The Philly Fed's activity index fell to 2.2 in September from 17.5 in August. Read full survey. It's the lowest level of the index in three months.

The decline was much larger than expected. Economists were expecting a modest slide in the Philly index to 12.3 in September, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

Earlier today, a separate guage of the New York region did not see such a sharp contraction. The New York Fed said its Empire State index only fell to 17.0 from 23.0 in August. See full story.

The Philly Fed and Empire state indexes are seen as providing good clues about the national manufacturing index to be released in early October by the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM, in turn, is considered the best real-time guage of the health of the economy.

Readings above zero in the Philly Fed diffusion index indicate expansion in activity. The index measures the breadth of economic activity across firms.

...more...

It's still above ZERO! :eyes:

[UpInArms]

6. Delta's debts to cause widespread pain

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-14T232444Z_01_BAU478713_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-AIRLINES-DELTA-DEBT-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Creditors ranging from small vendors to Walt Disney will be lining up to recover debts from Delta Air Lines (DAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Northwest Airlines Corp. (NWAC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) after the carriers on Wednesday filed two of largest airline bankruptcies in U.S. history.

According to court documents, Delta owes about $28 billion and Northwest nearly $18 billion to bondholders, trade creditors and other lenders, many of which are facing massive losses.

The bankruptcies will likely wipe out the carriers' equity investors and leave unsecured bondholders recovering less than 20 cents on the dollar, analysts said.

Some secured creditors will likely recover most of their investments, but others could lose up to 80 percent, according to analysts. As the airlines try to reduce costs and downsize their fleets, they may simply return many of the aircraft backing its debt to creditors, analysts said.

Walt Disney Co. (DIS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday said it may have to write down $100 million of Delta aircraft leases it holds, possibly hurting 2005 earnings. Similar disclosures are expected from other debtholders.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Delta CEO: Expect More Layoffs

http://www.11alive.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=69264

On the day the carrier filed Chapter 11, Delta Air Lines' CEO said expect more layoffs, fleet restructuring and pensions will be affected.

CEO Gerald Grinstein walked through Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport Wednesday night after Delta filed for bankruptcy. He assured employees and passengers that it will be 'business as usual' for Delta.

Grinstein spoke to 11Alive about filing for Chapter 11.

“It’s never an easy decision,” said CEO Gerald Grinstein. “I mean, we fought very hard for a long, long time, everyone in Delta did, to stay out of Chapter 11.”

Grinstein pointed to gas prices as the reason for the company's trouble and said restructuring would be felt throughout the company.

"It's going to be painful at every level... for management as well... it's a tough environment," said Grinstein.

...more...

[UpInArms]

62. Airports' risks may rise due Delta bankruptcy-Fitch

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-15T144453Z_01_WNA8206_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-AIRPORTS-DELTA-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Airports could face rising risks in the future from Delta Air Lines' (DAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) decision to file for bankruptcy, Fitch Ratings warned on Thursday, as it put the airline's hubs on negative outlook.

The bankruptcy could cause Delta to modify its current schedules at the hub airports, Fitch said.

"Particularly vulnerable are Delta's hub airports that rely on the scheduling decisions of the airline to generate significant levels of transfer traffic to complement local origin and destination traffic," the rating agency said.

[UpInArms]

63. Fitch: Northwest Airlines' connecting hubs face risks

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-15T145710Z_01_WNA8211_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-AIRPORTS-NORTHWEST-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings on Thursday
said Northwest Airlines Inc.'s (NWAC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) bankruptcy raises the
risk that the airline will cut flights at its "major connecting
hubs".

Those hubs include Minneapolis-St. Paul International
Airport, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, and Memphis
International Airport, Fitch said, adding they now all share a
negative outlook.

[UpInArms]

87. Delta, Northwest debt ratings cut to default

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-15T155008Z_01_N15732858_RTRIDST_0_AIRLINES-RATINGS.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - The corporate debt ratings of Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines were cut to default on Thursday, a day after the third- and fourth-largest U.S. air carriers filed for bankruptcy protection.

Struggling with soaring fuel prices, high labor costs and competition from low-cost carriers, Delta (DAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Northwest (NWAC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) sought bankruptcy protection. They had about $28 billion and $18 billion of total debt, respectively, when they filed, according to court documents.

Both airlines should be able to reorganize successfully, although they will have to reduce costs substantially, Standard & Poor's said in a statement.

Northwest's revenue and management of the costs under its control have been fairly good, so it has fewer problems to fix than Delta, the rating agency said.

S&P cut the corporate credit ratings, unsecured debt and airport revenue bonds of Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines to "D," or default. Ratings on enhanced equipment trust certificates were not lowered but remain on review for a downgrade, S&P said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

90. Airline pensions underfunded by $16.3B - taxpayers on the hook for $11.2b

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9F825B7F%2D566B%2D4C78%2D80AA%2DBD92F312BEBB%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The employee pension plans of two major airlines that declared bankruptcy Wednesday are underfunded by a total of $16.3 billion, the federal Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. said Thursday.

The federal agency, which serves as a safety net for defined pension plans, could be on the hook for $11.2 billion, while employees stand to lose a total of $5.1 billion, the agency estimated Thursday.

Delta Airlines' (DAL: news, chart, profile) pensions are currently underfunded by $10.6 billion, the PBGC said. Employees could lose $2.2 billion, while the PBGC could pick up $8.4 billion, the largest single claim in the 31-year history of the pension agency.

Northwest Airlines' (NWAC: news, chart, profile) pensions are underfunded by an estimated $5.7 billion, with employees standing to lose $2.9 billion and the PBGC losing $2.8 billion.

The PBGC pays pension benefits up to a certain level when it takes over a plan, which could leave some employees losing promised benefits.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. Bush popularity slips: poll

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B83AD3589%2D943A%2D4003%2D8A3A%2DC3598A203018%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- President Bush's overall approval rating has slipped to a record-low 40%, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released Thursday.

Hurricane Katrina has accelerated the erosion in public support for the Iraq war as Bush's core of supporters dwindles and economic pessimism turns Americans' attention inward, The Journal reported in a story in its online edition. See Wall Street Journal story (subscription).

Of particular concern to lawmakers facing voters next year, The Journal said, is that Americans have turned pessimistic on the outlook for the economy.

Some 49% expect the economy to get worse over the next 12 months, triple the 16% who expect it to improve, the poll showed. In January, those numbers were essentially reversed, the Journal reported.

Shaken by high gas prices and bracing for further jolts, Americans have turned negative about Mr. Bush across the board -- on handling the economy, foreign policy, and even the war on terrorism, The Journal said..

...more...

[ozymandius]

10. But his stage managers receive high marks.

:eyes: :hide:

[ozymandius]

8. Congratulations to the newlywed 54anickel!

:toast: :bounce: :woohoo: :applause: :yourock: :hi:

And to her lucky husband!!!

[Maeve]

24. Let's give her a little party, shall we?

All the best!
:toast::loveya::toast:

[UpInArms]

27. Oh Goodie! I love parties! I'll bring the cake!

and the drinks!

[Maeve]

34. And for the proper toast, a bit of champagne!

[ozymandius]

38. and presents

[ozymandius]

41. I wish I could offer the actual universal gift:

[RawMaterials]

45. Congrats 54 but I bet you would proubly want some of this

:hi:

:toast:

[54anickel]

54. The gift that keeps on giving! Thank you RM.

[54anickel]

53. Ahhhh, toilet tissue! And bird cage liner too. Thank you Ozy

[ozymandius]

56. and a jumbo size roll of Delta stock

[54anickel]

52. Heh-heh!!! You have no idea how perfectly appropriate that cake

topper is!

[AnneD]

50. I can't decide practicle or frivolous..

copper plated double boiler or condoms....nah we need more liberals:go forth and procreate.:woohoo:

[54anickel]

51. Thank you all! Such great gifts too!

[punpirate]

72. I've always tended to the practical...

... you'll probably need some of this:

[54anickel]

75. *SNARF*!!!! That's one of the greatest gas pics I've seen!

[UpInArms]

9. Newell Rubbermaid sets big job cuts (5,000 jobs)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD2B07A29%2D11E3%2D4F51%2DBBAF%2D80AF10ACA3B9%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Newell Rubbermaid Inc., whose brands range from Sharpie markers to Calphalon cookware, said Thursday it plans to cut more than 5,000 jobs as part of a restructuring aimed at cost savings and greater spending on new products, marketing and acquisitions.

Newell Rubbermaid (NWL: news, chart, profile) , based in Atlanta, will close about a third of its 80 factories worldwide, saving more than $120 million a year by 2008. The three-year program is expected to result in after-tax charges accruing to $295 million to $340 million, about 60% of which will be in cash. After-tax charges taken in fiscal 2006 will total approximately $185 million to $210 million.

The company said it sees earnings from continuing operations of between $1.30 and $1.35 a share in 2005, falling to a range of 77 cents to 87 cents a share in 2006. Excluding charges, the profit projections are $1.43 to $1.48 a share for 2005 and $1.50 to $1.60 a share for 2006.

<snip>

Newell Rubbermaid intends to concentrate in areas where it can generate long-term, sustainable sales growth of 3% to 5%. These include office products, tools and hardware, Rubbermaid commercial and food-service products, premium kitchen products, personal-care products and juvenile products, the company said.

...more...

[ozymandius]

12. Time Warner, Microsoft in talks: NY Post

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Time Warner Inc. (TWX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) are in advanced talks over Microsoft buying a stake in Time Warner's America Online unit, the New York Post reported on Thursday.

Citing two unnamed sources familiar with the matter, the Post said the talks concern Microsoft acquiring an AOL stake and then combining it with Microsoft's Web unit MSN.

short story

[UpInArms]

25. Treasurys vascillate in wake of mixed economic data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B863F27B9-0F85-4BAE-B684-DEBBF5AA249B%7D&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The benchmark Treasury note price spiked higher initially as the market digested a sharp rise in jobless benefits claims, just one report in a bombardment of economic headlines Thursday morning. Government data also showed a bond-negative drawdown in business inventories and a better-than-expected measure of New York-area factories taken after Hurricane Katrina. Positive for Treasurys was a mild reading for core consumer inflation. The closely tracked 10-year note pared its initial sharp gain and was last trading unchanged at 100 22/32. Its yield ($TNX) stood at 4.16%.

[UpInArms]

67. Extreme Check-Kiting: U.S. Treasury Dept to sell $32 bln bills on Monday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-15T150329Z_01_WAT003903_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BILLS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday it will sell $17 billion of three-month bills and $15 billion of six-month bills on Monday, Sept. 19.

The bills will be issued on Thursday, Sept. 22.

Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund an estimated $34.01 billion of publicly held bills maturing Sept. 22 and to pay down approximately $2.01 billion.

The three-month bills mature on Dec. 22, while the six-month bills mature on March 23.

Treasury said $4.90 billion of the three-month bills can be excluded when bidders calculate their net long positions. The net long reporting threshold for the three-month bills is $5.95 billion and for the six-month bills it is $5.25 billion.

...more...

[UpInArms]

74. Treasuries mixed, yield curve steepens after data

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-15T152648Z_01_N15386172_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were mixed on Thursday, with subdued data on inflation being offset by regional U.S. manufacturing data suggesting the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates next week.

But traders and strategists cautioned against reading too much into the morning's data. They noted that more data is coming out later on Thursday, and also that uncertainty abounds regarding next week's Fed meeting, which will be the first one following Hurricane Katrina.

Most expect the Fed to raise rates on Sept. 20, but with short-dated notes holding their gains, analysts said the market was still reflecting doubt about a potential rate hike, which emerged in the days after the hurricane hit.

The longer-dated end of the market was meanwhile lower after rising early on the tame inflation data, helping to widen the spread between two- and 10-year notes.

"I think it's a pre-Fed thing. and don't forget we've got the Philly Fed too," John Canavan, an analyst at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey, said of the market's slight and choppy movement.

...more...

[UpInArms]

91. Benchmark Treasury stung by Philly index price component

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38610.5121323032-842496495&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The 10-year Treasury note extended its price decline after a report on Philadelphia-area manufacturing, while weaker overall than expected, showed a steep jump in prices. The report, coupled with an earlier report from the New York Fed on that region's factory sector, raised inflation worries among the bond market and was largely seen keeping a Fed interest-rate hike on the table for Tuesday. The 10-year note was down 5/16, or more than $2.50 per each $1,000, at 100 12/32. It was yielding ($TNX) 4.21% vs. 4.17%.

[UpInArms]

92. Treasuries slide as Philly Fed prices gauge soars

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-15T161837Z_01_N15570984_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-PHILLY-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Treasury debt prices retreated on Thursday despite a plunge in Mid-Atlantic factory activity as a huge jump in prices paid by manufacturers stoked fears of rising inflation.

It was one of the first reports to offer a peek into economic conditions after Hurricane Katrina, and the news was not good.

The regional index, published by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, plummeted to 2.2 in September from 17.5 in August, well beneath forecasts for a drop to 14.0.

But the prices paid component of the survey surged to 52.7 from 25.9, more than offsetting the sharp slowdown in growth that might have ordinarily helped safe-haven government debt.

...a bit more...

[ozymandius]

28. pre-open blather

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Futures indications continue to hover near their best levels of the morning, pointing to a higher open for the indices. While post-Katrina data remains on the minds of many, investors are currently using today's encouraging pre-Katrina inflation read as a catalyst to look for bargains following respective losses of 1.3%, 1.1% and 1.6% on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq over the last two days.

8:38AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Futures indications get a slight boost following a much anticipated batch of economic data, suggesting the cash market will open on an upbeat note. Total CPI for Aug. came in up 0.5%, matching the expected rise, while core CPI rose just 0.1%, below an expected 0.2% rise, suggesting tame pre-Katrina inflation. Claims rose 71K to 398K (consensus 350K), the NY Empire State Index checked in at 17.0 while Aug. business inventories fell 0.5% (consensus -0.1%)...

[UpInArms]

37. Katrina shows US reinsurance rule is "unfair" -MEP

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-15T125435Z_01_N15665429_RTRIDST_0_BIZFEATURE-WALMART-PR.XML

BRUSSELS, Sept 15 (Reuters) - U.S. insistence on European reinsurers tying up cash to do business in the United States will end up hurting Americans by bumping up premiums following Hurricane Katrina, a senior EU lawmaker said on Thursday.

The U.S. rule on mandatory collateral for foreign reinsurers gives domestic reinsurers an advantage, and will begin to erode goodwill in the European Union towards third countries in future financial rulemaking, European Parliament member Peter Skinner added.

"Time is running out and there will be less sympathy for third countries when it comes to issues such as Solvency II," the socialist party member told Reuters.

Solvency II is being drawn up by the EU and will be a set of rules insurers will have to meet to prove their financial stability to operate in the 25-nation bloc.

Efforts to persuade the U.S. to drop the collateral rule have fallen on stony ground.

...more...

[54anickel]

98. Your link points to a Squal-mart article now. On this reinsurance issue,

I wonder if part of the issue, beyond given domestic reinsurers an advantage, has something to do with the US tendency to bail-out large corporations with tax-dollars. Any domestic insolvency remains "controlable" by our gubbermint. Not so if a foreign reinsurer goes belly-up. Just a guess...:shrug:

[UpInArms]

103. hmmmm.... article now missing

:shrug:

wonder why :eyes:

[ozymandius]

40. markets are open for bidness

9:36
Dow 10,572.86 +27.96 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,155.43 +6.10 (+0.28%)
S&P 500 1,231.54 +4.38 (+0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.172% 0.00
NYSE Volume 77,680,000
Nasdaq Volume 106,229,000

[ozymandius]

43. 10am update and blather

10:02
Dow 10,562.09 +17.19 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,150.36 +1.03 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,229.66 +2.50 (+0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 41.77 +0.09 (+0.22%)
NYSE Volume 272,580,000
Nasdaq Volume 286,075,000

9:40AM: Market rebounds nicely following two down days for the market, as investors embrace a benign, pre-Katrina read on core inflation. Providing the bulk of support behind an improved market tone has been Aug. CPI, which was up 0.5%, in line with expectations, and, more notably, core CPI, which checked in up just 0.1% - the fourth straight month of a modest 0.1% gain, proving just how resistant the economy is to price increases right now and implying any post-Katrina pressures will be less significant.

[JNelson6563]

47. Mornin' Marketeers!

10:21 and so much for rebounding nicely:

Dow 10,552.63 +7.73 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,147.75 -1.58 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,228.90 +1.74 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.181% +0.01

Could be an interesting day.

Julie

[ozymandius]

57. Good morning Julie!

Good to see you around today.

:hi:

[UpInArms]

59. 10:49 and a touch of "flew"

(as in the buyers "flew the coop")

Dow 10,538.92 -5.98 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,142.93 -6.40 (-0.30%)
S&P 500 1,226.73 -0.43 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.173 +0.05 (+0.12%)

NYSE Volume 546,093,000
Nasdaq Volume 535,836,000

10:30AM: The Dow and S&P pullback to single-digit gains, while the Nasdaq dips into the red... At the same time, each sector maintains positive footing... After languishing again yesterday, the Consumer Discretionary sector (+0.4%) has gotten off to a respectable start... Along with a better-thank-expected core CPI read, the sector is on the upswing due in part to Time Warner (TWX 18.37 +0.45), which has surged 2.2% on news it may sell a stake of America Online to Microsoft (MSFT 26.28 -0.03)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1500/1343, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1171/1383

[ozymandius]

60. stocks and bonds all red

10:50
Dow 10,539.48 -5.42 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,143.05 -6.28 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,226.83 -0.33 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 41.73 +0.05 (+0.12%)
NYSE Volume 551,141,000
Nasdaq Volume 540,360,000

10:30AM: The Dow and S&P pullback to single-digit gains, while the Nasdaq dips into the red... At the same time, each sector maintains positive footing... After languishing again yesterday, the Consumer Discretionary sector (+0.4%) has gotten off to a respectable start... Along with a better-thank-expected core CPI read, the sector is on the upswing due in part to Time Warner (TWX 18.37 +0.45), which has surged 2.2% on news it may sell a stake of America Online to Microsoft (MSFT 26.28 -0.03)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1500/1343, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1171/1383

[UpInArms]

65. FRAUD ALERT: Marsh & McLennan

10:59am 09/15/05 8 CHARGED WITH SCHEME TO DEFRAUD IN 1ST DEGREE

10:58am 09/15/05 NY GRAND JURY INDICTS 8 FORMER MARSH & MCLENNAN BROKERS

10:59am 09/15/05 NY GRAND JURY CHARGES STEM FROM SPITZER INSURANCE PROBE

(edited to add link and blurb)

Eight former Marsh managers indicted in New York

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38610.4643699421-842488223&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - A New York grand jury on Thursday indicted former mangers of Marsh Inc., a subsidiary of Marsh and McLellan (MMC) for bid-rigging and fraud. The 37-count indictment names eight former managers. A statement from Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's office said the charges stem from their roles in a "massive bid rigging scheme that defrauded clients of millions of dollars."

[UpInArms]

96. Spitzer Indicts 8 Former Marsh Executives in Bid-Rigging Probe

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=akEdXX2Yhp.c&refer=us

excerpt:

The executives, who include former managing directors William Gilman and Joseph Peiser, were charged with a total of 37 counts, including scheming to defraud, grand larceny, and restraining trade and competition, Spitzer said in a statement today. The attorney general sued Marsh & McLennan in October, accusing the brokerage of fixing prices and steering business to insurers that paid hidden fees.

Spitzer probably built his cases on evidence supplied by 16 former employees of Marsh & McLennan and four insurers who have pleaded guilty in the past 11 months, said Jacob Frenkel, a former federal prosecutor. Spitzer's allegations against the company wiped out 37 percent of its market value and triggered the ouster of Jeffrey Greenberg as chief executive last year.

<snip>

Greg Doherty, Kathleen Drake, Thomas Green, Edward Keane, William McBurnie, and Edward McNenney were also indicted, the statement said. Marsh & McLennan spokesman Jim Fingeroth had no immediate comment.

<snip>

``As he put it: Marsh `protected AIG's ass' when it was the incumbent carrier, and it expected AIG to help Marsh `protect' other incumbents,'' Spitzer said in the suit. One handwritten memo included as an exhibit to the suit says ``Per W. Gilman, Get to right number or `we'll kill you.'''

Spitzer has wrested guilty pleas from seven former Marsh & McLennan executives and nine former employees at insurers AIG, Ace Ltd., Zurich Financial Services AG, and Liberty Mutual Group in connection with the bid-rigging probe. Greenberg's father, Maurice ``Hank'' Greenberg, ran AIG, the world's largest insurer, for almost 40 years before he was removed in March amid a separate Spitzer investigation of accounting practices.

...more...

we'll kill you????

These freaks of nature are what are commonly known as "mobsters"!

[54anickel]

68. ‘ARMs’ Against a Sea of Troubles

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=46576

Hamlet – a tragedy of inaction. How appropriate. In this second line of this play’s most memorable monologue, which begins, “To be or not to be,” we see Hamlet questioning whether or not to take action. Should he suffer in solitude from the hidden truth that he is privy to, or should he confront the situation, deal with the consequences, and bring true resolution to Denmark, his country?

Perhaps, Greenspan and other government officials thought it nobler that our country should take no radical action and suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. Yet what we need is what we’ve needed all along. We need the resolve to take the necessary actions to set our economy on a sustainable path. That was always going to be difficult; now, it looks as though it will be so even more.

If I started at the beginning, I’d end up with a novel the size of War and Peace, which neither of us would read. So, I’ll start somewhere in the middle, though I’m quite sure where we’ll end.

After coming off the final remnant of the gold standard in 1971, with the whole world now on fiat currencies, we were free to inflate. And so, we did. Our reasons were, and are, complex, some good, and some bad. But that is another article for another day. We began inflating and we began our journey to becoming the world’s greatest debtor nation.

Thus began the great bull market in credit. From 1982 to 2000, the Dow went from 875 to 11,722, our trade deficit expanded from $24 billion to $378 billion1, our nation’s total non-financial debt growth rate went from $439 billion to $836 billion, and the household mortgage borrowing rate increased from $47.6 billion to $368 billion. 2 & 3

more...

[UpInArms]

70. U.S. names Banco Delta Asia money laundering concern

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38610.4635600579-842488096&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Treasury Department named Macau-based Banco Delta Asia a "primary money laundering concern" Thursday, with a senior department official calling it a "willing pawn for the North Korean government" to engage in corrupt financial activities. At the same time, the Treasury proposed a rule that would prohibit U.S. banks and other financial institutions from doing business with Banco Delta Asia. Treasury said the bank maintains accounts in the U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia and Australia.

[54anickel]

71. Average family health policy nears $11,000

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/health/2005-09-14-family-health-policy_x.htm

The average cost for a family health insurance policy topped $10,000 for the first time this year, although premium costs rose at their slowest rate since 2000, a closely watched survey of employers released Wednesday shows.

snip>

The Kaiser survey found three out of five employers (60%) offered coverage, down from 69% five years earlier, with most losses in small companies. Among employers with 200 or more workers, 98% offer health coverage.

Growth in health insurance costs outpaced inflation and wage growth.

snip>

Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz, speaking at a health costs roundtable sponsored by cable channel CNBC, called on companies to offer health insurance, saying it's a "moral obligation."

Earlier, he told Washington state congressional representatives Starbucks will spend more on health insurance for employees this year than on coffee, according to the Associated Press.

more...

[UpInArms]

73. Fuel pushes up US inflation, jobless ranks swell

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-09-15T132120Z_01_N15184956_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-WRAPUP-1.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 15 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices jumped 0.5 percent last month as gasoline prices soared, but costs outside of energy barely budged, the government said on Thursday in a report largely unaffected by Hurricane Katrina.

A separate report, however, offered a hint of the devastating storm's human toll as the the number of Americans filing initial claims for jobless aid shot up by 71,000 last week, the biggest jump in nearly 10 years.

A third report, offering an early view of the post-Katrina economy, showed factory activity in New York state slowed this month, but not as much as some economists had feared.

Prices for U.S. government bonds rose as traders bet the benign non-energy price data meant the Federal Reserve, which meets on Tuesday to set interest rates, could soon end its more than year-long campaign to push rates up. The dollar initially slipped against the euro, but quickly regained its footing.

The so-called core Consumer Price Index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, moved up just 0.1 percent in August, the Labor Department said. Wall Street economists had expected overall consumer prices to climb 0.6 percent, with the core index up 0.2 percent.

...more...

Wow! Now even the economic reporters are laughing at the CPI cooked books!

[54anickel]

76. Will Iran’s oil kill the U.S. dollar?

http://www.aljazeera.com/cgi-bin/review/article_full_story.asp?service_ID=9752

Speculations have begun regarding whether the proposed March 2006 launch of the Iranian oil bourse (IOB), will become the catalyst for a significant blow to the position of the U.S. dollar?

Iran is about to begin pricing its oil in euros. Unfortunately, just about everyone would benefit--except the United States- Without some form of U.S. intervention, the euro is going to establish a firm foothold in the international oil trade.

The U.S. dollar has been the strongest currency of the world for more than half a century, with about 70% of percent of all currency reserves in American dollars.

This could be a logical explanation for why the Islamic republic would be the U.S.’s next target.

more...

[RawMaterials]

101. More frome this interesting article

"The IOB will accelerate the already-existent global trend of shifting foreign currency reserves from dollars to euros would. Thus, “countries switching to euro reserves from dollar reserves would bring down the value of the U.S. currency. Imports would start to cost Americans a lot more …. As countries and businesses converted their dollar assets into euro assets, the U.S. property and stock market bubbles would, without doubt, burst” (The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability, Nov. 15, 2004).

The impact of a reserve currency switch would be catastrophic for the U.S., according to the Global Politician. The U.S. “would simply have to stop importing” (op. cit.).

If Iran launched its IOB, the U.S. dollar will weaken and the euro strengthen—helping speed up the economic decline of the U.S.

Numerous economists have expressed optimism about Iran’s ambitions, saying that the impact of the Iran oil bourse on the American dollar—and U.S. economy could be worse than Iran launching a “direct nuclear attack.” "

Looks like the world is about to cut up our Credit Card.

[54anickel]

110. Here's another, "Iran ready to transfer nuclear technology to Islamic stat

Iran ready to transfer nuclear technology to Islamic states

http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-236/0509155684135013.htm

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad here Wednesday voiced Iran's readiness to transfer peaceful nuclear technology to Islamic states.

The president made the remark in a meeting with Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the UN world summit.

Referring to the decrease of fossil fuel reserves and the country's need to use at least 20,000 MW of electricity, he said, "The Islamic Republic never seeks weapons of mass destruction and with respect to the needs of Islamic countries, we are ready to transfer nuclear know-how to these countries."

The president touched on numerous grounds existing for promotion of Tehran-Ankara ties and said, "Tehran faces many options for gas export to Europe but the Iranian government prefers to establish this trade contact through Turkey."
He praised the stance adopted by the Turkish government on Iran's nuclear case and said, "Iranian scientists have acquired nuclear fuel cycle.

more...

[UpInArms]

77. 11:42 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,567.58 +22.68 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,149.49 +0.16 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,229.39 +2.23 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.182 +0.14 (+0.34%)

NYSE Volume 808,471,000
Nasdaq Volume 740,885,000

11:30AM: The major averages tread in place while the sectors' standings remain relatively steady. Investors, meanwhile, will get another read on regional manufacturing when the Philly Fed (consensus 13.3) is released at 12:00 ET. Earlier, the NY Empire State index for September dipped to 17.0, from a prior read of 23.0. But since the decline was expected, as manufacturing growth has slowed slightly across the country and any reading above zero still reflects growth, the report has been largely overshadowed by CPI data...

To that end, bonds have been pressed to retain an early bid ahead of the Philly Fed, as the 10-yr note is currently off 3 ticks, yielding 4.18%.NYSE Adv/Dec 1495/1503, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1088/1648

11:00AM: Little changed since the last update, as the indices continue to vacillate around the unchanged mark...

Meanwhile, Technology continues to cling to a 0.3% gain, despite ongoing deterioration in several of its sub-sectors that have kept the Nasdaq underwater. Texas Instruments' (TXN 33.20 -0.75) decline, which is likely due to profit-taking after several sessions of gains, is currently the strongest impediment to the sector's advance. However, although Semiconductor and Hardware have posted losses of 1.0%, a respectable rebound in bellwethers like Cisco Systems (CSCO 18.00 +0.16) and Qualcomm (QCOM 42.40 +0.33) - both of which were off at least 1.9% yesterday - has provided the bulk of support behind Tech's ability to stay positive...NYSE Adv/Dec 1504/1441, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1053/1619

[ozymandius]

78. 11:46 and stocks all happy again

DJIA 10,568.54 +23.64 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,149.96 +0.63 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,229.57 +2.41 (+0.20%)
Gold future 457.90 +4.20 (+0.93%)
30-Year Bond 4.50% +0.04 (+0.97%)
10-Year Bond 4.20% +0.03 (+0.67%)

[UpInArms]

83. 12:04 good times fleeing

Dow 10,543.06 -1.84 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,145.55 -3.78 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,227.00 -0.16 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.195 +0.27 (+0.65%)

NYSE Volume 905,886,000
Nasdaq Volume 830,200,000

12:00PM: Not much to get excited about midday as the major indices continue to find little traction on the heels of mixed economic data. Before the bell, traders received a four-fold dose of economic data that triggered an initial uptick; but, upon digestion, has set the early stand-offish tone. For Aug., total CPI rose 0.5%, in-line with expectations. The more closely-watched core rate, meanwhile, rose just 0.1%, below an expected 0.2% rise and suggesting that pre-Katrina inflation remains in check. While the CPI read occupied the morning's spotlight, traders have somewhat discounted the data due to the fact that it, unlike today's jobless report, does not reflect Katrina's impact. With respect to the aforementioned jobless report, initial claims rose 71K to 398K (consensus 350K) last week and served as the first glimpse of the hurricane's economic effect. However, the market remains somewhat apprehensive today, ahead of anticipated September data, the impending Sept. 20 FOMC meeting, and looming profit warnings as Q3 earnings season approaches. The economic calendar has perhaps received exacerbated attention today, on account of a relatively quiet corporate front. Bear Stearns (BSC 102.25 -3.25) has been the session's only notable earnings reporter, and, although the broker delivered a better than expected Q3 earnings report, it appears Wall Street may have had even higher expectations, as shares have sunk 3.1% and impeded the Financial sector's momentum. Although each of the ten economic sectors have spent the session in positive territory, gains are relatively slim and have been thus far static. Energy leads with its 0.9% rise, bolstered by morning price surges across the energy complex in spite of a pull back in crude oil prices ($64.70/bbl -$0.39) - a downturn that has had little impact on stocks...

The Consumer Discretionary sector has pared recent losses, posting a 0.4% midday gain largely on the back of Time Warner (TWX), which announced that Microsoft (MSFT) may buy a stake of AOL. Tech is an additional point of interest today. Despite negative standings of several groups, the sector has managed to sustain its 0.3% gain. Texas Instruments' (TXN 33.20 -0.75) is behind the downward pressure, off __% as after several sessions of gains have prompted profit-taking. Respectable rebounds in bellwethers like Cisco Systems (CSCO 18.00 +0.16) and Qualcomm (QCOM 42.40 +0.33), as well as Intel's (INTC) and Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) performances, have provided the bulk of support behind Tech's ability to stay afloat...NYSE Adv/Dec 1509/1542, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1148/1646 ...

[UpInArms]

94. U.S. stocks dip after manufacturing report

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-15T162353Z_01_N15440_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-7.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks turned lower on Thursday after a regional manufacturing report showed signs of slower growth, triggering declines in economically sensitive stocks like Caterpillar Inc. (CAT.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

<snip>

The report "indicates the economy is slowing," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist at Ehrenkrantz, King, Nussbaum, adding that it may prompt the Federal Reserve to pause in its campaign of interest rate hikes this year.

<snip>

Earlier, a report from the Labor Department showed the consumer price index rose 0.5 percent last month, less than the 0.6 percent increase expected by economists polled by Reuters. Factoring out record high energy prices and food prices, CPI was up 0.1 percent compared with an expected 0.2 percent rise.

<snip>

The U.S. government in another report said new jobless claims rose at a faster than expected rate last week, reflecting some post-Katrina losses.

...more...

[UpInArms]

80. Greenspan warns about Fannie, Freddie

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B256435D4%2DE78C%2D4938%2DA3F6%2D414DC5A131E4%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan sounded a strong note of caution about the amount of mortgage portfolios held by housing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a recent letter to a U.S. senator.

Greenspan has repeatedly called for limiting the portfolios of the two giant companies, which have received heightened scrutiny by the Bush administration and Congress after accounting scandals, and again urged action to cap their holdings.

"In the case of the ," Greenspan wrote to Utah Republican Robert Bennett, "excessive caution in reducing their portfolios could prove to be destabilizing to our financial system as a whole and in the end could seriously diminish the availability of home mortgage funds."

Also in the Sept. 2 letter, Greenspan said the concentrations of mortgage-backed securities at Fannie (FNM: news, chart, profile) and Freddie (FRE: news, chart, profile) are "well beyond what market forces would normally allow" because there are no limits to the portfolios' expansion.

House and Senate legislation tightening regulation over both companies has been stalled over the issue of portfolio limits, with critics claiming proposals don't go far enough in halting portfolio growth.

...more...

[54anickel]

89. Devil Take the Hindmost

http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2005/09/devil-take-hindmost.html

In re-reading much of Edward Chancellor's excellent "Devil Take the Hindmost - A History of Financial Speculation" over the holiday weekend, a few passages took on added significance this time through - they are related here today.

First, an intriguing crossing of paths of Charles Keating and Alan Greenspan in the mid-1980s. Recall that the last national real estate boom/bust occurred in the late 1980s, culminating in the Savings and Loan Crisis a decade and a half ago. When re-reading some of the history of this period, it almost seems quaint. The estimated cost of the S&L crisis of $150 billion seems pretty tame compared to today's Fannie and Freddie liabilities alone.
Although reckless in his speculations, Keating displayed great care in cultivating politicians and regulators. He provided campaign funds to nine senators and several congressmen, and offered lucrative jobs to several of Lincoln's bank regulators and auditors. At one point, he even succeeded in getting a man heavily in debt to Lincoln appointed as commissioner to the Bank Board, the body ultimately responsible for regulating Lincoln's affairs. If he couldn’t bribe bank regulators with employment, Keating threatened them personally with lawsuits.

He hired the economist Alan Greenspan, later Chairman of the Federal Reserve, to support Lincoln's application to increase its "direct investments" to more than 10 percent of assets. (In a letter he must have come to regret deeply, Greenspan wrote to the California bank regulator that the management of Lincoln and American Continental was "seasoned and expert ... with a long and continuous track record of outstanding success in making sound and profitable direct investments.")

In another letter dated 13 February 1985, Greenspan claimed that Keating's management had turned Lincoln into "a financially strong institution" which would not pose any risk of loss to the federal insurer "for the foreseeable future." Greenspan was paid $40,000 for writing the two letters and testifying on Keating's behalf.

When regulators discovered that Keating was concealing losses and had exceeded the regulations on direct investments, he used his friendly senators, later dubbed the "Keating Five," to browbeat the head of the Bank Board.

more...

[54anickel]

86. The Time Is Surely Not Far Off

http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2005/09/time-is-surely-not-far-off.html

snip>

It used to be that there were only two sides to the gold story - the story told by economists and the story told by gold bugs.

The economists would say that gold is a "barbarous relic" that pays no interest and has been relegated to its proper place as but a footnote in history - that today's financial wizards are wholly capable of managing fiat money and that the world is a better place without the restrictions on money creation that were in place when money was linked to gold.

The gold bugs would respond by pointing out that today's fiat money has no intrinsic value because it is backed by nothing other than confidence in the government and the central bank which issues it - that ultimately, it will revert to its intrinsic value because of promises politicians can not keep and the hubris of central bankers.

Today there seems to be a growing middle ground when it comes to gold. Some question the current relationship between the oil price and the gold price and note that it is far from historical norms. Others wonder why gold has nearly doubled in value since the technology boom went bust and real estate became the world's primary driver of wealth creation.

An excellent example of this new middle ground is this Buttonwood column that appeared in The Economist the other day. This excerpt makes clear that at least one economist at The Economist is a bit perplexed with his current understanding of gold's place in the world. The writer seems less perplexed about gold's future.

more...

[UpInArms]

97. 1:14 EST collective amnesia sets in - markets perk up

Dow 10,553.89 +8.99 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,148.14 -1.19 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,227.90 +0.74 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.218 +0.50 (+1.20%)

NYSE Volume 1,165,743,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,035,744,000

1:00PM: Not much changed in the last half hour as the indices remain underwater...

Tobacco (+1.6%), however, stands as one of the S&P's brightest spots and Consumer Staples' best segment during this downbeat session. Responsible for the rise has been Altria (MO 72.15 +0.52), which has jumped 0.7% today as traders eye defensive plays and trails only McDonald's (MCD 33.23 +0.87) in terms of the day's best performing Dow components. Restaurants, such as MCD, have received a boost from falling energy prices and optimism over the core CPI read. To that end, the group, down 3.8% on the year, has risen 0.5% today and contributes to Consumer Discretionary's steady 0.4% gain... NYSE Adv/Dec 1443/1691, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1120/1753

12:30PM: Market has hit new session lows, taking a bearish cue from continued weakness in bonds following the release of the Philadelphia Fed Index... At the top of the hour, the region's Federal Reserve Bank stated that "indicators for general activity and new orders fell substantially from their readings in August and suggest little to no growth this month," The data, reflecting 2.2% growth and falling far short of the expected 13.3% rise and a 17.5% prior read, adds to the disappointing New York Empire State Index released before the bell and further stirs economic deceleration concerns. NYSE Adv/Dec 1303/1783, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1038/1798

[UpInArms]

99. WH's new Trick Dog - Chopper Ben - does spin and dance routine

Bernanke sees 'palpable', short Katrina hit on US

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-15T173223Z_01_N155809_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BERNANKE-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Hurricane Katrina will hurt the U.S. economy in the short run but bright long-term prospects mean the Bush administration can push ahead with its reform agenda, a top White House economic adviser said on Thursday.

"In the shorter term, the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina will have a palpable effect on the national economy," White House economic adviser Ben Bernanke said in prepared remarks for delivery at the National Press Club. But he said private-sector forecasts were for healthy long-run growth.

Bernanke, a former Federal Reserve governor who is regularly mentioned as a potential successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, offered no estimate of how much growth he thought might be erased by the storm that wreaked havoc in the New Orleans area of Louisiana and parts of Mississippi.

"In particular, the virtual shutting down of the Gulf Coast economy will leave its imprint on the national rates of job creation and output growth, especially in the third quarter," he said. But rebuilding of the area should add to growth "perhaps by the fourth quarter and certainly in the first half of next year."

He said that while energy refining and distribution facilities were hard-hit, there was progress on repairing them and supplies from the government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve were easing the pinch.

...more...

[54anickel]

107. He's a one trick dog - All he knows is dropping money from the sky

[54anickel]

100. Hurricane victims piling up credit card debt

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9340601/

snip>

Still, financial experts say the couple is right to be worried. The Alciatores and other Katrina victims who thought they were financially secure must keep their debt in check while facing huge relocation costs and uncertainty about their income. It’s not easy.

“People in a crisis are not thinking clearly. Their emotions take over, and that’s not a good place to be when it comes to your finances,” said Deb Outlaw, a CPA and financial planner in Dallas. “Sometimes they feel like they have to get back to what they had before the disaster, but they need to be patient.”

Like much else surrounding Katrina, the financial aftermath is a story of haves and have-nots.

Helen Salazar-Realini, a financial planner in Miami, said most of those who left the Gulf Coast early will be fine. Insurance, after a deductible that can run several thousand dollars, will cover their homes and cars and living expenses while they are uprooted.

Renters will be in far worse shape, she said. They may have lacked insurance to cover their belongings and have difficulty recovering security deposits.

more...

[UpInArms]

104. ALERT: Regulators propose rule to repeal utility merger restriction

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38610.5735535648-842505356&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Thursday proposed new rules to repeal a Depression-era law restricting utility mergers. The commission's move to eliminate the Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935 was mandated by Congress in the recently enacted energy bill. The regulators are working with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which was charged with enforcing the 70-year old holding company act, to "assure a smooth transition" to new merger rules, FERC Chairman Jospeh Kelliher said in a statement. The energy bill granted the commission new authority to review holding company books and records.

Well, lookie there! Rolling back and destroying more safeguards in their massive unread corporate lobbyist written giveaways.

:argh:

[54anickel]

106. Oh man, I feel a set-up coming on here these days. We are about to

complete the time travel back to the robber baron days. We're already more than 1/2 way there. :scared:

[UpInArms]

105. Gold futures close above $459 an ounce

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38610.5811466435-842506487&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold rose $5.60 to close at $459.30 an ounce in New York, the contract's highest closing level since December 7, when it closed above $465. "Gold is strong despite a recent slightly firmer paper 'dollar'," said John Stafford, editor of Stafford's Investment Strategy Letter, adding that prices are "headed to $500 and then well beyond that into the several thousands of paper 'dollars' per ounce in coming decades."

[ozymandius]

108. 3:10 numbers and blather

Dow 10,551.34 +6.44 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,145.77 -3.56 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,227.01 -0.15 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.214% +0.05
NYSE Volume 1,614,564,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,378,958,000

3:00PM: Blue chip averages continue to hold modest gains, even as market internals suggest a more negative tone to trading... The Dow currently sports a 2-to-3 ratio of winners to losers, in which McDonald's (MCD 33.31 +0.95) tops the list as Caterpillar (CAT 57.90 -0.40) continues to consolidate. The slightly bearish bias is further reflected in the A/D line, as advancers on the Big Board trail 17 to 15 while decliners on the Nasdaq maintain a 17 to 12 edge over advancing counterparts...NYSE Adv/Dec 1482/1715, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1204/1746

[54anickel]

109. Still no mention of the "triple witchie" thing tomorrow?

[ozymandius]

112. Ahhh... now I get it.

post #79

That went past me. Nothing has come acorss the news wires about this.

[54anickel]

113. The big options expirations that come around every so often. Iossif

mentioned Friday being an options day, so I looked up that "witchie" thing UIA and I were trying to figure out when it first showed up in the blather. Sorry about that, should have made myself more clear.


http://daytrading.about.com/library/jargon/bl_3witch.htm

Fancy Way to Say: Mass Derivative (i.e. options, futures) Expiration

Explanation

Four times a year, on the third Friday of the quarter ending month (March, June, September, December) three different types of derivatives related to stocks expire:

Options on Individual Stocks
Options on Stock Index Futures
Stock Index Futures
The 'mass' expiration can cause wild gyrations and false moves in prices as contracts are covered, rolled over, etc.

[ozymandius]

111. closing numbers

Dow 10,558.75 +13.85 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,146.15 -3.18 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,227.73 +0.57 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.214% +0.05
NYSE Volume 2,063,177,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,705,102,000

blather to come

[54anickel]

114. Blather (ewww quadruple-witching at that)

Even though the blue chip averages closed just above the flat line and eight of ten economic sectors finished positive, the market spent the session on mixed but bearishly biased footing that lacked much conviction. The opening bell brought a hefty dose of economic data for traders to digest - an overall mixed bag that turned the futures market's modestly upbeat tone into one of apprehension. Aug. CPI sat center stage, but the fact that the benign inflation gauge did not reflect the Katrina Effect somewhat overshadowed the smaller-than-expected rise of 0.1% for the core rate (consensus +0.2%) and an in-line read for total CPI (+0.5%). While the data suggested tame pre-Katrina inflation, the market remained cautious ahead of September data that will account for the hurricane's impact, the impending Sept. 20 FOMC meeting and the emergence of potential Q3 profit warnings. Disappointing reads on regional manufacturing activity further weighed on the market's attitude. At 2.2, the Sept. Philadelphia Fed Index plunged well below the 17.5 in Aug. and widely missed an expected read of 13.0. The New York Empire index, meanwhile, checked in at 17.0 (vs. 23.0 in Aug.). Specifically, the prices paid components of those reports fanned inflation fears should producers try to pass higher fuel costs on to consumers, providing the Fed with incentive to keep raising rates. To that end, the Treasury market languishing throughout the session, as the benchmark 10-year note closed down 12 ticks at 4.21%, and merely added to the overall sense of nervousness that stalled more aggressive recovery efforts early on...

Despite surging bond yields, which typically diminish the appeal of dividend-paying stocks, the rate-sensitive Utilities sector (0.8%) turned in the day's best performance, as investors sought a safe haven within a downbeat market. Rising yields did, however, take a toll on the influential Financial sector (+0.03%), which slipped into negative territory midday and stunted overall market momentum before limping over the flat line into the close. The biggest area of weakness was in brokerage; while the day's earnings calendar was a relatively blank one, Bear Stearns (BSC 102.90 -2.60) delivered a better than expected Q3 earnings report - upon which its shares lost 2.5% after running yesterday and a likely result of even higher street expectations. Consumer Staples (+0.3%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.2%) posted modest gains, with the latter getting a lift from Time Warner (TWX 18.50 +0.58), a heavily-weighted component that surged 3.2% after divulging that Microsoft (MSFT 26.27 -0.04) may purchase a portion of America Online. McDonald's (MCD 33.45 +1.09), which drove the Dow and takes much of the credit for the blue chip average's positive close, rose 3.4% today and further bolstered the sector...

Technology, however, erased its early gains midday, as solid performances from bellwethers like Cisco (CSCO 18.03 +0.19) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 27.87 +0.37) could not ultimately offset across the board weakness and significant pressure from Texas Instruments (TXN 33.06 -0.89), which lost 2.6% as several sessions of gains prompted profit-taking... Separately, investors also sifted through last week's jobless report, for which the market expected a considerable increase in Katrina's wake... Initial claims rose 71K to 398K (consensus 350K), serving as the first glimpse of the hurricane's economic effect and preceding what is expected to be a similarly larger read next week...DJTA +0.36, DJUA +1.01, DOT -0.60, Nasdaq 100 -0.07, Russell 2000 -0.22, SOX -1.01, S&P Midcap 400 -0.45, XOI +0.93, NYSE Adv/Dec 1491/1761, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1195/1823

3:30PM : Going into the close, the Dow hangs on to a single-digit gain while its counterparts still trend negative... Sector leadership remains split, with Utilities still in the driver's seat, Tech in last place, and Healthcare at its lowest level of the day... Tomorrow, the economic calendar features a preliminary read of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment report, for which economists expect a read of 85.0, down from the 89.1 chalked in August... While the earnings front will be a quiet one, tomorrow's quadruple-witching options expiration may make for some added volatility...NYSE Adv/Dec 1491/1723, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1196/1774

[ozymandius]

115. Will the bell toll tomorrow?

This sounds very ominous. I'm sure the Fed will do what it can to plug the leaks with aggressive buy options in the S&P. But with a mountain of ugly data - will there be enough fiat money?

My gut tells me that I might want to post the thread tomorrow and run away from my computer. Either the markets follow their intended course or the Fed mortgages even bigger chunks of our future to delay the reckoning.

Ugh.

[54anickel]

116. 15 biggies in repos issued today, I suppose they can always do another

one of those coupon reversal thingies on Treasuries again. Or, Chopper Ben will fire up the printing press full-bore. Could be interesting, lots of extra volatility...could go up, could go down.
There's that 50/50 chance.