STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 16 September

[ozymandius]

Friday September 16, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 127 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 270 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 334 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1391
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 15, 2005

Dow... 10,558.75 +13.85 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq... 2,146.15 -3.18 (-0.15%)
S&P 500... 1,227.73 +0.57 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.21% +0.05 (+1.10%)
Gold future... 459.30 +5.60 (+1.22%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

The Sky May be Falling!

In spite of a decisive bond market rally, unlike the recent past, the US consumer stocks have (thus far) failed to rally. After the devastation around New Orleans, the stock market staged a broad rally, yet, for many of the leading consumer-based companies, the rally turned out to be just a mirage. As of Wednesday evening, many key consumer stocks have given back practically all of the illogical Katrina-based gains that occurred in the days following Katrina. Before that time, many of the key household-named consumer stocks suffered serious technical damage. It was the US consumer that led the bull market and now the consumer is running out of gas. He has run out of savings. He is running out of available credit. He is running out of confidence. In the aggregate, practically all he has left is his “home equity” which is probably at risk. You cannot rule out that for the US stock market, the sky may be falling.

Assuming that another hurricane doesn’t strike, it seems as if there is no more “good news” to propel the market higher. While stock market sentiment appears to be quite positive, I’ll submit that this optimism is without basis. Long term momentum is gone, and as I will show tonight, the consumer stock leadership is being punished while the market has thus far failed to break out to new highs.

-cut-

The 3-year weekly chart of the Dow Jones Restaurant and Bars index ($DJUSRU) suggests that the US consumer is running out of spending money and credit.* In late August, the index has crashed decisively below its 40-week moving average for the first time, only to be rescued by the post-Katrina rally. This week, the index turned back below its long and intermediate term moving averages. It appears that the Katrina rally was for suckers.

-cut-

In spite of this, it would be premature to suggest that the bull market is over until more serious technical damage is suffered by the major indices. Similarly, a comfortable break into new high ground would need to be respected.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

* Ozy's note: bars are characterized as recession-proof. If bars are in a slump, this is a serious indicator of an economic downtrend.

[KayLaw]

3. Could I jump on my soapbox for a moment?

I post and read at other boards and read various newspapers. A lot of people are cutting back on "trips to town" and restaurant meals. I guess some of the bigger chains can adapt but I worry about the small business owner who can't use profits from his other out-of-state or offshore stores.

As for our family, we'll be supporting local restaurants only. I hope others will give this some thought, though most people who post here probably have already.

:hi:

[radfringe]

8. we've cut waaaaaaaay back

visits to local restaurants are down to maybe once a month getting a take-out pizza

any extra money we have goes into an envelope to buy cord wood for supplemental heating this winter - we're getting a minimum of 6-8 cords

after that - "extra" money will go towards heating oil

We had planned on taking a trip over Christmas to my family in Minnesota - but that's up in the air, probably won't go because we won't be able to afford it

we were also planning on a trip to California next year to visit my partner's family and friends -- that too is also up in the air, going to depend on how well our budget survives the winter months


on edit: my boss is in the process of buying a bar/eatery, he hopes to be able to open up before Thanksgiving. If hours can be worked out - I'll be working the grill for him a few nights a week for some extra money...

[ozymandius]

10. Good for you.

We do the same in our house for the same reason. Local merchants, bar owners and restauranteurs are our friends who contribute more to the community than corporate chains. Corporations often negotiate with the local authority to pay either puny or zero tax rates. Living wages are uncommon with corporate chains.

[RawMaterials]

12. I also do this

I live in a part of town were i can and do walk to everything, local iga, library, and restaurants . the local restaurants are a bit more expensive but the food is sooo much better. my town actually refused to allow fast food into the area i am living in. I still don't know how we are going to deal with a 40-50% rise in heating cost. :grr:

[AnneD]

47. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: I was just commenting to my daughter on this same subject yesterday. We went to our local Chinese area shopping center for our fav Tapioca Tea and dumplings. Normally you cannot get a parking spot AT ALL. The first think I noticed was how many spaces there were. In the restaurant normally there are 5-7 tables of people dining at that time. We were the only ones for a while. As we were leaving another family came in. This is a very well like restaurant among Asians and Anglos. The food is great and inexpensive. I trust the parking lot indicators above anything Wall St has put out. They are the first to cheer when co cut workers to make their balance sheets look good but they fail to see that several thousand consumers have lost income. Penny wise and pound foolish if you ask me. Well...Happy Hunting and watch out for the bears.

[punpirate]

2. What a weird collection of charts this a.m. ...

... futures heading skyward, gold up overnight, but all currencies down against the dollar overnight.

Guess there's no such thing as conventional wisdom any more....

[WCGreen]

4. The sheep on wall street don;t know what to do...

After years of regurgitating the same crap, they now discover that holy crap, things have changed....

I remember back in the mid 90's when older stock traders were saying on CNBC that there were too many people trading who don't remember the 70's.....

Now it seems there are too many traders who are nostalgic for the 90's....

[ozymandius]

6. That mirrors the way I see today's markets.

I consider the huge psychological factor among brokers and their customers. I remember a conversation with my broker from a few years ago. (He just happened to be in the building where I worked at the time.) I was in the hallway as the elevator door opened and out he stepped, talking before he crossed the threshold. He was telling me that the stock market is poised to make a huge breakout in the coming months.

This was the Summer of 2000.

This is the psychology: what should be happening or what many want to happen. Whether it has any basis in fact is irrelevant to some who trade under this notion. It's nostalgia.

[WCGreen]

9. CNBC has popularized investing but also

hyperventilated the markets.....

[ozymandius]

5. Conventional wisdom gave Bush 49% of the vote in 2000.

Therefore, it's laughable if it ever existed.

[fasttense]

11. The Plunge Protection Team using the US Exchange Stabilization

Fund and the foreign custody accounts held at the NY Fed, have been busily buying up stock index futures contracts. They believe this will force the underlying index to rise. The Feds have the fix in.

[NeoConsSuck]

7. The market will be drooling today

over the upcoming govt. contracts that will be awarded to the private sector. Budget deficit? Phhhtttt.

Me? I'm keeping my investments in Latin America & Eastern Europe. (ILF & EUROX)

[UpInArms]

13. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.95 Change -0.18 (-0.20%)

Inflationary Concerns Spark Dollar Strength

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3512&Itemid=39

US Dollar

Certainly a busy day for the greenback as a mixed basket of data was released to the glee of dollar bulls. First and foremost, expansion continued according to the Empire manufacturing report for the month of September. Expected to print a reading of 15, the report was released higher at a figure of 17. Suggestive of expansion, the figure was still below the previous 23 reading in the prior month. Subsequently, core consumer prices were released in line with expectations, higher by 2.1 percent on an annualized comparison. Indicative of inflationary pressures, although still relatively weak against benchmark targets, the figure added to the continued manufacturing activity seen in the Empire survey, leading traders in expecting a 25 basis point hike at next week’s meeting. However, there does remain some questionability to the strength of U.S. manufacturing as the later released Philadelphia survey showed a plummeting figure of 2.2 according to the Federal Reserve. This is especially alarming as the recent release showed a reading of 17.5. Nonetheless, dollar favoritism did remain dominant as the drop was seen mainly attributed to thin demand and higher costs resultant of Hurricane Katrina devastation. Additionally, details of both the Federal Reserve’s regional survey cited overall rising prices, adding to the day’s consumer prices report.

...more...

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: First Glimpse of Post-Katrina UMich Consumer Confidence

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3511&Itemid=39

US Current Account Balance (2Q) (12:30 GMT, 8:30AM EDT)
Consensus: -$193.0B
Previous: -$195.1B

Outlook: For the second quarter, the balance on the US current account is expected to recede ever so slightly to -$193.0 billion from -$195.1 billion. Looking at the monthly trade balance data, we see that the deficit on goods and services had a small increase of $274 million from $173.1 billion in the first quarter to $173.3 in the second quarter. However, this is larger than the goods and services balance of $171.8 originally recorded in first quarter’s current account data. Hence, it does actually lend a bit of upside risk to second quarter’s deficit number. In terms of the income receipts component of the current account, the relatively congruent performance in world equity markets at the time should keep the performance of that section fairly steady. Given this information, a small retrace is certainly possible especially after two consecutive record-breaking quarters, however there is some slight upside risk.

Previous: The current account balanced ballooned to an all-time high of $195.1 billion in the first quarter, up from $188.4 billion in the fourth quarter. The median economists’ estimate was much lower at $190 billion. On the whole, despite the widening deficit, relative export growth actually beat import growth in the period with a 2.1 percent increase versus 1.9 percent in imports. In terms of goods, the growth rates were nearly identical, both being just under 2.3 percent. The US consumers’ unrelenting demand for foreign goods and the ability of the US to attract foreign investments is what has driven the deficit to 6.4 percent of the gross domestic product. Despite the low value of the dollar against other major currencies at the end of last year, a fairly sharp rally of the dollar in the beginning of this year may have spurred buying. Although current account growth leveled off between the fourth quarter and the first quarter, consider that just one year ago, this measure was $146.1 billion, which means over 33.5 percent growth in just one year. Creating even more concern is the fact that with the gains in oil prices and the loss of price competitiveness of US goods due to the dollar’s recent strength, this balance is not likely to improve by much in the near future and could worsen.


Net Foreign Security Purchases (JUL) (13:00 GMT, 9:00 EDT)
Consensus: $60.0B
Previous: $71.2B

Outlook: After reaching a four-month record in June, net foreign security purchases probably subsided to $60.0 billion in July. One obviously factor in this and future releases will be the Chinese yuan revaluation which took place on July 21st. Although the value of the change was fairly small, it does mean that the Chinese government will need to accumulate less dollar-denominated assets in order to prop up the value of the currency against the yuan. Countering this is the fact that foreign investment in the US bond market will continue to follow the trend of growth it has seen since its lows around this time last year. Strong growth and other factors in the US are continuingly positive for the foreign investor. The dollar has seen strength in the currency markets as the Federal Reserve pursues its plan of raising interest rates helping US dollar assets seem relatively attractive compared to rival countries in which growth is not expected to be nearly as strong.

Previous: Foreign investors increased holdings of US assets in June by $71.2 billion, the most in four months, continuing the upward trend seen this year. Record purchases were made of US corporate bonds, with the number of purchases rising 156 percent to $52.2 billion as exhibited by the falling yields on treasuries. Of the $4.1 trillion in marketable US treasuries, $2 trillion are held by foreign investors. Foreigners also increased net stock holdings by $107 million as the US equity markets dipped in July, providing a good buying opportunity as the US economy looked to continue growing at a strong pace. Manufacturing in New York expanded at a faster than expected pace, the housing market continued to boom, and the jobless rate was at a four year low. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.5 percent, the highest since 2001, to head off inflation in the rapidly growing US economy, attracting many foreign investors to dollar-denominated assets.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Little relief for dollar from reported deficit contraction

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38611.364470162-842609200&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Currency markets showed only minimal reaction to a report revealing the U.S. current account deficit narrowed by 1.5% to $195.7 billion in the second quarter. Economists expected the gap to narrow to $193 billion. The deficit in the first quarter was revised up to a record $198.7 billion. The dollar initially edged up on the euro but had since returned to pre-report levels at around $1.2239. The dollar is down 0.2% against Europe's shared currency from late Thursday. The dollar did improve to 110.92 yen in recent trading from 110.86 yen before the report. It's up 0.2% on the day.

Seems like those forex traders understand that it did not contract if the number from last month was revised upward so that this month's number could "appear" to "drop".

[UpInArms]

14. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Sep 16	8:30 AM	Current Account		Q2	-	-$191.0B	-$193.0B	-$195.1B	-	
Sep 16	9:00 AM	Net Foreign Purchases		-	-	-	-	-	-	
Sep 16	9:45 AM	Mich Sentiment-Prel.	Sep	-	84.0	85.0	89.1	-

[UpInArms]

15. U.S. Q2 current account deficit narrows to $195.7 bln

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={1DCF52BA-1696-490A-9EE9-735D2B3861B0}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. current account deficit narrowed by 1.5% to $195.7 billion in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The deficit amounted to 6.3% of gross domestic product. Economists expected the current account to narrow to $193.0 billion in the second quarter. The deficit in the first quarter was revised to a record $198.7 billion, compared with the initial estimate of $195.1 billion. The drop in the current account was largely due to less foreign aid. Foreign-owned assets in the United States increased $393.1 billion in the second quarter.

[UpInArms]

25. more info:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-09-16T125255Z_01_N16145163_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-WRAPUP-1.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. current account deficit narrowed in the second quarter to $195.7 billion as government transfers declined and the surplus on services grew, Commerce Department data showed on Friday, but the previous quarter's record deficit was revised even higher.

The dollar slipped slightly on the news while U.S. government bonds continued their softer tone ahead of the release of the University of Michigan's key survey of consumer confidence, due for release at 09:45 a.m. EDT (1345 GMT).

The quarterly shortfall, the second highest on record, compared with Wall Street forecasts for a deficit of $193.0 billion. The Commerce Department revised the first quarter gap to a record $198.7 billion versus a $195.1 billion deficit initially reported.

"Despite the fact that you had a narrowing on the quarter based on the first quarter being revised wider, the outlook really isn't that positive," Sophia Drossos, G10 currency strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

The current account, the broadest measure of U.S. trade with the rest of the world as it includes investment flows, ran at 6.3 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter compared with 6.5 percent in the previous three months, a Commerce Department official said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. U.S. capital inflows rise to $87.4 billion in July (Who's buying? Pirates?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38611.3750545139-842610559&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Capital inflows into the U.S. rose to $87.4 billion in July as private investors snapped up a record amount of securities including Treasury bonds and notes, government agency bonds and equities, the Treasury Department said Friday. But foreign central banks bought far fewer U.S. securities almost across the board in July, particularly Treasury bonds and notes.

8:59am 09/16/05 JULY FOREIGN PURCHASES OF AGENCY BONDS HIGHEST IN 9 MONTHS

8:59am 09/16/05 FOREIGNERS BUY RECORD $91 BLN OF U.S. SECURITIES IN JULY

8:59am 09/16/05 U.S. CAPITAL INFLOWS RISE TO $87.4 BILLION IN JULY

[UpInArms]

39. Consumer sentiment sinks in Sept., UMich says - to 76.9

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38611.4091593634-842616377&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer sentiment eroded in September in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, according to researchers at the University of Michigan. The consumer sentiment index fell to 76.9 from 89.1 in August. The number was below the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists who had expected sentiment to slip to 85.1.

9:46am 09/16/05 U.S. SEPT. UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT 76.9 VS 89.1 IN AUG.

[UpInArms]

16. Treasury's Snow-US deficit to rise for about a year

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-16T122128Z_01_N16606260_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW-DEFICIT-URGENT.XML

ATLANTA, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The United States can afford the costs of rebuilding after Hurricane Katrina, as well as the resulting rise in the federal budget deficit for about a year, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Friday.

"We can afford an increase in the deficit for a year or so," Snow said in an interview on Fox News.

Snow ruled out a tax increase to pay for the costs associated with Katrina recovery, which some estimate will surpass $100 billion.

...more...

[54anickel]

30. WTF is he smokin' again? 1 year? That's it? Or does he really mean

we'll only approve any extra spending for 1 year and after that "yer on yer own"?

"We can afford an increase in the deficit for a year or so," ---
Begs the question, suppose something ELSE comes up again that will cost big bucks within the next year or so? What then, Mr. Flake? Will we be forced into bankruptcy? Are you saying this nation is stretched to the limits - living hand to mouth? Cuz that's what it looks like from where I am sitting.

[UpInArms]

18. Energy costs are biggest US economy threat--survey

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-16T040019Z_01_N1545061_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BUSINESSES.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Lofty energy prices have supplanted terrorism in the eyes of economists as the biggest short-term threat facing the U.S. economy, a survey released on Friday showed.

The National Association for Business Economics said a survey of 202 of its members found that 30 percent now view energy prices as the biggest risk to growth, up from 11 percent in its last survey in March.

In contrast, only 20 percent of the economists surveyed said terrorism was their biggest concern, down from 24 percent in the March survey and well below the 40 percent who cited terrorism as their top worry in August 2004.

But over the long haul health care, federal budget deficits and education were seen as the biggest challenges, NABE said.

The group said 65 percent of the respondents believed the U.S. Federal Reserve had calibrated monetary policy appropriately, but 30 percent said policy was too easy.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. US junk bond funds report $119.6 mln outflow in wk

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-15T213558Z_01_N15598925_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-JUNK-AMG-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - U.S. junk bond funds reported $119.6 million of net outflows in the week ended Wednesday, following an $84.5 million inflow the prior week, AMG Data said on Thursday.

Year-to-date, junk bond funds have lost nearly $8 billion in net outflows, a trend that strategists have blamed on profit-taking after two years of strong gains for junk bonds.

[54anickel]

63. Whenever I see "profit-taking" I read "getting out before the dung hits

the fan".

[RawMaterials]

20. Katrina Doesn't Change Economists' View on Rates, Survey Shows

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Katrina has done little to change expectations among economists for further interest-rate increases, according to a survey that also identified energy costs as the biggest threat to the U.S. economy.

Ninety percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they expect the Federal Reserve to raise borrowing costs more. Among those surveyed after Katrina, 84 percent predicted increases, compared with 97 percent among those who responded before the storm.

The proportion of respondents citing energy costs as the biggest threat to the economy in the next two years rose to 30 percent from 11 percent in a March survey. Gasoline prices have risen to a record since Katrina crippled Gulf Coast refineries, leaving consumers less money to spend on other goods.

``Economists believe energy prices are becoming a more severe short-term risk,'' said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``Over time, you are crimping the discretionary spending of a lot of consumers.''

snip...

Long-Term Outlook

The number of economists concerned by energy prices has risen for each of the past five NABE surveys over two years.

For the longer term, only 4 percent of economists surveyed by NABE cited energy prices as the greatest problem. They were split almost evenly: 23 cited health-care costs, 22 percent the federal deficit and government spending, and 21 percent inadequate education and a shortage of skilled labor.

Most economists also expected continued gains in housing prices. Fourteen percent said there is a national housing ``bubble,'' and 79 percent said there are local ``bubbles.'' Fifty-five percent expect continued price gains nationally over the next five years, while 16 percent predicted declines.

Eighty-three percent said they would buy a primary residence today. Just 17 percent said they would also buy an investment property.

``The economics profession is telling you in their opinion there are a lot of markets out of line with fundamentals, but the national market doesn't appear that way,'' Silvia said.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a7nT.oqGJ0Sc&refer=us

[UpInArms]

21. Foreign cenbanks net sellers of US debt - Fed

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-15T203003Z_01_NYG000041_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-FOREIGNERS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Foreign central banks were
again sellers of U.S. government debt in the latest week, but
sold U.S. Treasuries while buying U.S. agency securities,
Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday.


The Fed said its overall holdings of Treasury and agency
debt kept for overseas central banks fell by $5.943 billion in
the week ended Sept. 14 to stand at $1.460 trillion.


The breakdown of custody holdings showed overseas central
banks sold $10.731 billion in Treasury debt but bought $4.789
billion in agency debt, in the latest addition of this class of
debt.


The full Fed report can be found on:


http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/

...more...

[RawMaterials]

22. Bridgestone to Raise U.S., Canada Tire Prices by 8% in November

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Bridgestone Corp., the world's second-largest tiremaker, said its U.S. and Canadian units will raise prices by as much as 8 percent from Nov. 1 because of rising costs for oil and other raw materials.

The higher prices will apply to Bridgestone, Firestone, Dayton and private-label tires for passenger cars, light trucks, truck and bus, the company's Nashville, Tennessee-based Bridgestone Firestone unit said in a statement. The prices of tires used in tractors and off-road vehicles will also be raised, Bridgestone said.

The increase would be Bridgestone's seventh in North America since the start of 2003. Tokyo-based Bridgestone and other tiremakers are passing on higher material costs as rubber prices reached the highest in at least 16 years on July 26.

Shares of Bridgestone fell 0.9 percent to 2,275 yen as of 12:46 p.m. in Tokyo

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=aVqSQVdVpXO8&refer=canada

[RawMaterials]

24. Gold stays close to 17-year high

Gold on Thursday moved to within striking distance of its highest level in more than 17 years as speculators continued to buy the precious metal as a hedge against further falls in the dollar due to the high US trade and budget deficits.

Bullion peaked at $455.10 a troy ounce in London trade, its highest level since last December’s peak of $456.75, which in turn was a level previously reached in December 1987.

George Gero, a gold trader at Legg Mason in New York, said speculators were continuing to buy gold because they thought the dollar might have further to fall. The late rise came despite weakness in the euro. Gold normally moves in tandem with the single currency, but it has de-coupled on several occasions this year as investors have attempted to value the precious metal as a currency.

“There is a lot of interest in gold at the moment, I think we could be looking at new highs very soon,” said Mr Gero.

If gold does break last December’s high it will be the longest bull market run for bullion since it was freely floated in 1968. The metal’s fortunes turned around in the summer of 2001 when it hit a 22-year low of almost $250 a troy ounce. The rise is largely the result of a decline in the dollar.

Gold’s gain also pushed other precious metals prices higher. Silver reached an intra-day high of $7.07 a troy ounce, before settling at $6.97/$7.00. Platinum reached an intra-day high of $916 a troy ounce. Traders said if platinum continues its advance it could make an assault on its 24-year high of $942 touched in April 2004.

The gains in precious metals were not shared in base metals where nickel prices dropped below $13,000 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange, their lowest level since December 2004. Traders said the price fall reflected fading concerns about a workers strike at mines operated by Inco, the Canadian nickel producer.


http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f55d29b8-25d3-11da-a4a7-00000e2511c8.html


I know were I'm putting my money, I also know were its already at and no I'm not trading it for any of that paper no matter what country makes it.

[ozymandius]

35. From Kos diarist: Silver ETF Denied by the SEC - Shortage Confirmed

This is the second of what seems to have become a series of diaries chronicling the coming surge in precious metals prices. In June I pointed to the peak price of gold in eurodollars - check out that live chart - and I gave a basic description of the futures markets.

Today I'm going to talk about a little bit of news in the silver scene, an attempt to create a Silver Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). An ETF is the opposite of a futures market, it is a 1:1 purchase of physical metal. Therefore, every share of the ETF is backed up by bullion.

There are several Gold ETFs in other countries, and one was just added to the NYSE. Recently, an application for the first ever Silver ETF was submitted to the SEC by Barclays Bank, which apparently has been rejected.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has turned down Barclay's Global Investors application to establish a silver electronic trading fund platform, sources in the market told Platts Thursday. Barclays already have an ETF for gold.

Wow, you say. So what?

The current ETF application was for One hundred and thirty million ounces, which, if backed by physical silver, would amount to half of the naked COT short commitment, and according to Ted Butler, more than all the known physical reserves. So now starts the speculation - Did Barclays know where to get 130 MM ounces of Silver? Did recent COMEX delivery action reveal their pitiful attempts to do so? Ted Butler believes it could be one of two explanations:

In the first two days of the September contract delivery period, over four million ounces of silver were brought in to the COMEX warehouses ... to satisfy delivery demands..
The contract stopper for this physical delivery was the beleaguered AIG, who took 8.5 MM ounces in total. Basically, they emptied the vault. But some say that AIG wasn't a proxy for Barclays, they were in fact unwinding a rather large hedge, done in a private deal with China. Our asian friends are demanding their chair back as they see the musicians getting tired.

My other diary made the point that the price of gold was finally becoming unhinged from the value of the dollar. Today I have two charts which show that Silver is now being suppressed and is due to be "uncoiled":

more...

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/9/16/83732/1257

[54anickel]

41. I didn't realize they were that close to offering Silver EFTs. Learn

something new here everyday. ;-)

There are 2 camps out there on the Gold ETF - those who think they are the greatest thing since sliced bread (WGC) and those who don't trust it and wouldn't touch it "for all the tea in China". (GATA)

As for me, if I'm gonna own silver and gold, I'll take physical delivery please - then again, I'm hardly rich enough to be concerned with "storage issues". I'm not about to get my fingers caught in the window should someone decide it's time to slam it shut again. B-)

[AnneD]

48. Say...

did you just invest in a little gold the other day. I remember asking an accountant friend of mine what his thoughts were when he walked down the aisle. Without missing a beat he said "Every thing that was mine was now 1/2 mine".

[54anickel]

51. Heh-heh, your accountant friend took the old "romantic" view on the

institution on "marriage".

This was the 2nd walk down the aisle for both of us. A lot of people call us cold and callous - but for us, marriage was just another "legal contract".

Without getting on my soapbox about what I think of "marriage", I'll just say we both learned from past mistakes. There were legal and financial reasons why we chose to "live in sin" for over a decade and other legal and financial circumstances came into play when we decided to enter into a "marriage contract".

Legal contracts, living wills, trusts, pre-nuptials, etc. are all wonderful tools when you take the "emotion" out of the "institution of marriage". They've been used by the wealthy "not-so-religious" for decades.

All these tools are starting to be used by the more common folk, and I don't believe the PTB are happy with that idea. I really think that comes into play quite a bit with the Repug ties to the "KKKristian" right, the fight against "legal unions" for gays, etc, etc, etc. It always comes down back to the almighty buck in the end. Follow the money.....

Are we "in love" - of course we are. But, as Tina would say, "What's love got to do with it?" I'd add - Don't just follow your heart when your accounts can be broken. :evilgrin:

[AnneD]

59. I am an old fashion gal

Hubby is from India (citizen for almost 20 yrs) and ours was a second marriage and we had been friends for 13 years.
We went through months of on again off again pre marital negotiations. We called it off (I could tell he had cold feet). I moved to another state and went about the business of my life. Well he figured out what he needed to and we got married. Best thing we did....I toured with him on his concert tour through Europe. We had lots of uninterrupted time (4 weeks) to talk about everything under the sun. We are still trying to knit togather our finances (we were both single for so long). We both have debt issues and we try to resolve them with our own resources when we can and togather when we need to. As he is fond of saying money comes money goes...but we have a very stable base and love each other, so even if we were broke we would still be togather. We signed no prenups, we have the faith in our judgement and in each other...but I can understand why some people feel the need. I just think it starts the marriage out on the wrong tone, you value your assets more than your spouse. But just MHO. Congrats on the merger.

[54anickel]

61. That's what a lot of folks that don't know us well tend to say

"you value your assets more than your spouse". That's a fair call if you aren't familiar with our histories and how the past "marriages" ended.

We were best friends and independent long before we "fell in love", and that friendship, - no matter what the future holds for us - is our most valuable asset that we want to protect. The "law" says 50-50 - we don't agree. Rather than allow the "state" to dictate how our assets will be handled in the case of divorce or death, we laid it out ourselves prior to some life-changing event.

Might be that right brain/left brain thought pattern.
Thanks for the congrats.

[AnneD]

62. valid points

I wouldn't want his assets in a divorce nor he mine (Texas Law prevents that anyway-the common law thing). Guess your state law can have a bearing on that. I hope you are as happy in this one as we are with ours. Sometimes you can learn from your mistakes and do overs work.

[UpInArms]

26. US stock futures show higher open after upgrades

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-16T125840Z_01_N16144803_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures suggested the market would open higher on Friday, helped by brokerage upgrades of blue-chip shares including Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Intel Corp. (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research).

<snip>

S&P 500 futures were up 4.2 points, above fair value, a mathematical model that evaluates their pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.

Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 33 points. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 5.5 points.

"There are some high-profile upgrades this morning, and Exxon Mobil and Intel are certainly helping the market," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management. "Adobe earnings, the current account number coming almost in line, and the moderation in oil prices will be a positive on the market."

The government reported that the U.S. second-quarter current account deficit narrowed to $195.7 billion. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a deficit of $193 billion.

...more...

[Algorem]

27. "The minimum payment on credit cards is federally mandated to in-

crease in December to 3 and 1/2% of the balance of the debt.That means,no bankruptcy as we knew it,and the minimum payments are going up to 3 and 1/2% of the debt."-heard on radio this morning,said "call your credit card companies an verify this."


Credit card payments to rise
Move will reduce debt faster, but could pinch some

http://www.sltrib.com/business/ci_3030238

By Lesley Mitchell
The Salt Lake Tribune

Consumers who make only minimum payments on their credit cards are in for a shock.
Spurred by a new federal mandate, card companies over the next three months plan to raise - in some cases double - the amount card holders must pay each month.
A consumer carrying a $10,000 balance, for example, may see a minimum payment jump from $200 to $400.
The new minimums are designed to prevent consumers from being hobbled for decades by credit card debt. An estimated one-third to one-half of American families carry credit card debt, with many making only minimum payments...

(oops,this isn't where I meant to put this,but...whatever,at least I got it on Stock Market Watch,I had a window to a post in the lounge open too,could've clicked reply on that instead)

[54anickel]

37. I have been trying to spread this far and wide, most people are not

aware of the minimum payments going up, and they think they are doing OK. I think if more people understood this from the beginning, bankruptcy filings would be waaaaay up.

Folks I've talked to about this say, "I'm making more than the minimum payment". When I ask if they are making double the minimum, the answer is usual crickets or a loud "Hell no - I can't afford to do THAT".

Yet another, "it's for their own good" rational from our gubbermint. Meanwhile, the banks that lend are protected. :eyes: THAT is how out of touch with Main Street these people are - from BOTH parties.

[AnneD]

50. Actually,

54anickle, I think that was one of the better things written into the law (I don't think the ccc wanted that in the bill). Over time it will be to the credit card companies detriment to have consumers carry around less debt and have to credit more of the payment to the debt. My suggestion-cut up your cards, use cash or debit card and keep all that intrest money in your pocket. Yes, it can be done. Let the bloodsucker shrivel up and die.

[54anickel]

52. It was a "good intention". But it was too much too fast, and the timing

with the bankruptcy bill put the debtors at risk while protecting the lenders.

I agree, that the ccc's were preying on people and trapping them into years of "servitude" - guaranteeing the banks a long, steady stream of income and profits with virtually no effort on their part. Taking that away was a great idea - but the banking lobbyists made sure their masters were taken care of in the end. It was "bastardized" and "corporatized".

[AnneD]

65. Oh no doubt

the bill was bought and paid for by the ccc's. After all, they have lost so much profits to deadbeats and they are teteering on the brink of collapse :sarcasm:. I think is was totally wrong, a bad law and petitioned my Reps-to no availe. Most people file due to 1)medical, 2)divorce, 3)business failure..in that order I believe. Had that provision not been put in it would have been punitive only (shades of Dickinson and debtors prisons). I think the old law was just fine as it was. Yeh, you may have had a few rotten apples, but not many.
At least that provision will make people think and pay down the outstanding balance quicker. I am suprised that more people weren't protesting this when it was being decided. I even had conservative friends that were against this bill. I was really po'd that some DEM's voted for it. It really undermines our efforts to help the average joe.

[54anickel]

69. As ususal ( especially with this mal-admin) - the devil is in the details.

And I don't believe those details were being widely reported (while this bill was being debated) in a way that the "average Joe" could easily connect the dots and see the adverse effects. It was cherry-picked for the "good" stuff regarding the reasons for upping the minimum payments, and stopping all those "dead-beats" from playing the system :eyes:

Guess it's all in the delivery...packaging is everything :-(

[AnneD]

81. Frankly,

all I heard was 'It'll stop those deadbeat' rah, rah. But thanks to DU, Move On, etc and this thread, I was able to mobilize friends on this issue. Oh, and about those 2K card for the victims......anything if at all that FEMA gives you, 2K will be taken off the top. I guess if you don't get anything they will bill you 2K later.....they have been known to do that.
I really feel sorry for the Katrina people. I have been telling them about the new backruptcy law. You have to file in your state and our lawschools here are trying to help as many as we can before the Oct deadline.

[54anickel]

83. That's great - it's important for the Katrina "victims" to understand that

all this "special dispensation" being offered to them by the lenders is NOT in their best interests. I've got a feeling October can't come fast enough for these lenders.

Sure, there's lots of talk about a 1 year reprive for the Gulf are (thanks Russ Feingold!) - but there's no assurance that will get passed.

[UpInArms]

28. Deep in debt . . . and deep in trouble

http://www.onalaskalife.com/articles/2005/09/16/opinion/00edit.txt

It's time for Wisconsin families to hear the alarm set off by Americans' unwise use of credit.

Our penchant for going deeper in debt is getting us deeper in trouble - not only as individuals but also as a nation.

Consider that Americans are now $2.1 trillion in debt - not counting home loans. That's up 26 percent in the past five years.

As we have spent ourselves into debt, we have less money to save. We now put away less than $1 of every $100 earned. By saving less we put ourselves at risk of not having enough money to cope with emergencies, to send our children to college or to retire in comfort.

Moreover, by saving less we reduce the money in the economy available for investment and loans to generate job growth, and we make our nation more dependent upon foreign investment.

To be sure, families coping with layoffs, medical bills and other unexpected expenses may have no choice but to take on more debt. But evidence from Wisconsin and around the country suggests that a large share of the recent increase in debt is due to something far less justifiable - profligacy.

...more...

[ozymandius]

29. pre-open blather

9:14AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Futures indications are trading at their best levels of the morning and remain comfortably above fair value, which should translate into a higher open for the indices. It is worth noting, however, that total volumes should be above average today amid quarterly options expiration (quadruple witching) and as the S&P 500 completes its transition to "free float" calculation.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. The cash market remains set for a higher start, as strength in European markets may be serving as a bullish cue for pre-market trading. The FTSE 100 (+0.6%) has pushed through the 5400 level for the first time in 4 years while the DAX and CAC have chalked respective gains of 1.5% and 0.8%... An improved sentiment may have also been aided by President Bush's delivery of Gulf Coast economic recovery details last night.

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Futures trading holds relatively steady after the latest report on the current account deficit, which checked in at -$195.7bln (consensus -$193.0 bln), still suggesting a higher open for the cash market...

[UpInArms]

31. IMF cuts U.S. growth outlook, boosts Japan-papers

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-16T065740Z_01_L16416994_RTRIDST_0_FUND-GROWTH-UPDATE-1.XML

FRANKFURT, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund expects the United States economy to grow less than previously expected this year and next, but will upgrade Japan's growth prospects on its upcoming world economic scorecard, German newspapers said on Friday.

According to business dailies Handelsblatt and Financial Times Deutschland, the IMF's World Economic Outlook will show the fund expects U.S. growth to reach 3.5 percent this year and dip to 3.3 percent in 2006. In April, the IMF forecast U.S. growth of 3.6 percent for both years.

However, the FTD said the IMF will raise its forecast for growth in Japan to 2.0 percent for this year and next when the report is officially released next week.

The IMF in April had forecast the world's second-largest economy to expand by just 0.8 percent this year, and 1.9 percent in 2006.

...more...

[54anickel]

32. IMF predicts positive outlook for US, Japan (Heh-heh - depends on

how you read the report, I guess)

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/04959cd0-2624-11da-a4a7-00000e2511c8.html

The International Monetary Fund has become increasingly pessimistic about the prospects of Europe's economies while raising sharply its forecast for Japan. In a draft of its twice-yearly forecasts, seen by Financial Times Deutschland, the fund highlights the vulnerability of European economies to oil price shocks.

The IMF has cut its forecast for the four large European economies: Germany, the UK, France and Italy. It still believes Germany will grow by a sluggish 0.8 per cent this year. However, in a move suggesting that the election of a new government on Sunday will not mark the end of years of sluggish growth, it has cut its forecast for 2006 to 1.2 per cent from 1.9 per cent.

snip>

In contrast, the IMF believes that Japan's economy will grow by 2 per cent this year and in 2006. If the forecasts are borne out, the period between 2003 and 2006 would prove to have been Japan's best period of growth since the economy entered its long stagnation in 1990.

The US economy also seems to have weathered rising commodity prices. Its growth forecast, almost certainly produced before Hurricane Katrina, is hardly changed from that in April, the IMF expecting growth of 3.5 per cent in 2005 and 3.3 per cent in 2006

more...

[UpInArms]

33. 9:35 EST markets open with a "Hurray for Empty Speeches!"

Dow 10,613.28 +54.53 (+0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,154.05 +7.90 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 1,233.47 +5.74 (+0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.239 +0.25 (+0.59%)

NYSE Volume 408,003,000
Nasdaq Volume 383,713,000

[UpInArms]

34. Treasuries mixed as market awaits sentiment data

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-16T133955Z_01_N16333986_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were mixed on Friday as the market awaited consumer sentiment data, brushing off a wider-than-expected second-quarter current account gap since the numbers predated Hurricane Katrina.

The market was bracing for the early September confidence data, due at 9:45 a.m. (1345 GMT), to see how energy prices are affecting inflation and get an indication of how consumers feel about spiking energy prices in the wake of the storm.

Bond traders largely ignored data that showed net capital inflows in July were strong enough to easily exceed the trade gap in that month. The numbers suggested appetite for U.S. assets like Treasuries was ample early in the summer.

The long end of the bond market, as on Thursday, was falling in a continued reflection of inflationary fears, while the short end was more stable, traders said.

...more...

[54anickel]

36. Higher energy bills ahead

Some states could see prices jump by 15%, while others might see their utilities go BUST.


snip>

Due largely to the skyrocketing price of natural gas, utilities are faced with rising costs for producing power that could result in 15 percent higher residential electric bills and even higher ones for businesses in some areas, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The impact will vary depending on whether a state has a deregulated power industry, the newspaper said.

States with deregulated industries, mostly in the Northeast, the Midwest and the mid-Atlantic, are more likely to see the price increases. Utility shares in those areas are also likely to rise on the increased revenue, the newspaper said.

But other states with more regulated industries are trying to cap electric prices. The Journal said that move could force some utilities into bankruptcy, as happened in California in 2000.

bit more "free markets, baby"...

[ozymandius]

38. Oil slips to $64 as prices start to hurt

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil drifted back toward $64 on Friday as OPEC geared up to pump more crude onto a world market that is just beginning to show signs of slowing demand.

Ministers from the oil cartel will meet in Vienna on Monday against a backdrop of crude and gasoline prices that are still near record highs. OPEC issued a fresh assurance on Friday that it was ready to increase its output.

"As always, OPEC stands ready to supply additional oil to the market when necessary," a statement said, restating OPEC's policy of "ensuring that supply is at or above demand."

more

[54anickel]

42. Heh, we're all addicts who consider their pusher their best friend.

Must be too much talk of alternative energy sources these days. :eyes:

Remember that article not long ago that pointed out the fact that most of the reserve stats of OPEC nations were bogus from the beginning? Their "cut" of OPEC business was going to be based upon their reserves, so suddenly everyone's reserve stats miraculously went up.

[54anickel]

57. Reality Bites! (Speaking of those miraculous reserve increases)

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/saxena/saxena091605.html

snip>

Over the past seven years, crude oil prices have risen almost seven-fold! In December 1998, crude traded at roughly $10.5 per barrel and recently it recorded an all-time high, over $70 per barrel.

What is amusing though is that during the entire course of this massive advance, the majority of analysts, politicians and OPEC officials have consistently called for a top in the oil price! So far, the experts have been proven wrong.

In the meantime however, oil has continued to surge. The problem for the establishment of course is that the price of oil is dictated not by officials but by supply and demand. It is this dynamic that is now pointing towards a significantly higher oil price.

Like it or not, the era of cheap oil is over and expensive oil is here to stay. My research has convinced me that the supply and demand of crude is seriously out of balance.

snip>

Up until 1979, the Saudi oil company “ARAMCO” was owned by major foreign oil companies. In 1979, just before Saudi Arabia removed the foreign interest and nationalised ARAMCO, a final audit of Saudi oil reserves was conducted. The study revealed that Saudi Arabia had 110 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. Then, in the mid-1980’s, soon after ARAMCO was nationalised, Saudi proven oil reserves miraculously jumped by 150% to 260 billion barrels! Nobody knew how this happened and it is highly questionable, considering that the last major Saudi oil-field was discovered in 1968! How the Saudis manage to boost their proven reserves by 150 billion barrels since taking over ARAMCO is still a mystery. To complicate matters further, for the past 25 years, Saudi proven reserves have remained constant at 260 billion barrels. How can Saudi reserves stay the same at 260 billion barrels when it has pumped almost 60 billion barrels of oil since 1980? This is one question, which begs an answer.

Next, let us closely examine Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity, which seems to have mystified the world. The majority of people believe that Saudi Arabia can keep supplying the world with endless quantities of crude oil. In fact, the reality may be very different. Not many people realise that over 90% of Saudi oil comes from only six oilfields, which were all discovered before the 1970’s. So, all these fields are now extremely old and experts argue that they are now well past their prime. Ghawar oilfield is the super -giant and has provided 55-60% of Saudi oil over the past five decades! According to experts like Matthew Simmons, Ghawar is past its peak already and likely to enter into a major decline. Take a look at Figure 1, which was presented in Matthew Simmons’ new book, “Twilight in the Desert”, which shows the major Saudi oilfields and the years in which they peaked.

more...

[54anickel]

85. Oil's Quiet Head-and-Shoulders Top

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/050916/10242915.html

We certainly have a theme going in the market: the slowdown theme.
There are plenty of folks out there who think the economy is doing just fine but when you pin them down, there is quite a consensus view that Katrina will take approximately 1% off of GDP in the quarter.

Now, the bulls expect it will not upset the growth in the economy; they believe it will be a one-off event in the quarter and then we're back on track.

The bears have a different view in that they believe we are just going to fall off a cliff.

I thought of this as I looked at the chart of crude oil Thursday. You see, we are beginning to hear folks use the word stagflation when it comes to the economy. The gist I get from all this economic chatter is that they think prices, crude included, are moving higher while growth is slowing.

more...

[UpInArms]

40. 10:16 EST Markets say "Who Cares What You Think!"

Dow 10,612.17 +53.42 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,153.83 +7.68 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,234.53 +6.80 (+0.55%)
10-Yr Bond 4.267 +0.53 (+1.26%)

NYSE Volume 720,384,000
Nasdaq Volume 645,297,000

10:00: The major averages pull back from opening levels, but continue to sport solid gains despite a weaker than expected preliminary read on consumer sentiment... September consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan index, has fallen to 76.9, below expectations of 85.0 and an August reading of 89.1... The market shows initial resilience, though, as the read was expected to reflect a significant decline in Katrina's wake... Further, the data don't correlate well with consumer spending trends and leaves traders' focus on early bargain-hunting efforts...

The Treasury market, meanwhile, has extended yesterday's languish, reflected in the 10-year note's (-14/32) 4.27% yield...NYSE Adv/Dec 1718/596, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1598/803

9:40AM: As futures trade had foreshadowed, the stock market opened on the upside. Despite a dearth of corporate news and market-moving economic data, traders have started the session with a bullish stance, eyeing bargains as losses of 1.1% on the Dow and S&P and a 1.4% decline on the Nasdaq have positioned the major averages for their first down week in three... Declining crude prices and upgrades on bellwethers like INTC and XOM may be aiding sentiment...

Separately, investors will get a preliminary read on Sep. consumer sentiment (consensus 85.0) within the next few minutes, which is likely to show a significant Katrina-related decline...

[54anickel]

43. Mississippi sues 5 insurance firms over flood forms

Adjusters trying to trick victims, state official says

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3355955

BILOXI, MISS. - Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood sued five U.S. insurance companies Thursday, saying adjusters have tried to trick Hurricane Katrina survivors out of millions of dollars in homeowner claims.

Adjusters for Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co. and other insurers asked policyholders to sign forms that acknowledged they sustained flood damage, which is not covered by homeowners' insurance, according to Hood.

Adjusters have cajoled victims to sign the forms, saying they are necessary to immediately receive checks for living expenses. The companies can use the sentence regarding flood damage against policyholders later, Hood said.

snip>

The difference is important. Damaged caused by wind or water falling into a structure, like through a hole, typically is covered. Damage from rising water, however, usually would be covered only by the National Flood Insurance Program, which is run by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA.

more...

[54anickel]

44. Accountants Say Katrina Is 'Ordinary'

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-account16sep16,1,3983923.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Hurricane Katrina, though catastrophic and unforgettable, was not an "extraordinary" event for financial reporting purposes, according to the accounting industry's standards board and the nation's largest accountants group.

The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants advised its members this week that because a hurricane is a natural disaster "that is reasonably expected to reoccur," the losses it causes shouldn't be considered extraordinary in bookkeeping. The costs of an extraordinary event are segregated in a financial report, so many analysts and investors exclude them in assessing a company.

snip>

An example of a natural disaster that might be considered extraordinary, Noll said, would be an earthquake that strikes where there is no known fault line or documented history of quake activity.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board also considers Katrina "ordinary" for accounting purposes.

The chairman of the board's Emerging Issues Task Force, Larry Smith, said Wednesday that there were no plans to have the task force consider whether to label Katrina an extraordinary event, board spokesman Gerard Carney said.

more....

Hmmmm, is this what the Idiot 'n Thief was alluding to last night when he called Katrina a "regular" hurricane (or whatever the hell term he used)?

[54anickel]

58. Time for the Great Debate on Katrina Bond Bailout (Ugh!)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_mysak&sid=aNcsdKcX_JTc

snip>

Issuers, Investors

Some of these issuers are going to have difficulty making their debt service payments. Let's say some bonds are backed by a hotel tax. If the hotels aren't open, then the hotel tax paying those bonds isn't collected. Or let's say some bonds are to be repaid by a special sales tax. If nobody's making purchases, then there are no special sales taxes collected.

Which brings us to the crux of the big question: Is it appropriate for the state or federal government to ensure that municipal debt in this catastrophic, once-in-a-century instance, doesn't default?

Yes. If dozens of municipal bond issuers in Louisiana and Mississippi default on their loans, it will make it that much harder to attract investors to municipal bonds as an asset class. This will drive borrowing costs up at a time these issuers will need the municipal market to borrow money to rebuild, and make it more costly for issuers everywhere to borrow.

No. It's the bondholders who would be bailed out, not the issuers, and investors in bonds, just like investors in other securities, know there is risk to everything.

Bond Insurers

more...

[54anickel]

45. Fannie Mae Dissolving Grass-Roots Lobbying Network

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/15/AR2005091502341.html

Mortgage finance giant Fannie Mae has quietly dismissed several senior employees and is dismantling its vaunted grass-roots lobbying corps, a network that has reached deeply into the halls of Congress for more than a decade.

As it wrestles with a multibillion-dollar financial restatement and an overhaul of its business, the District-based firm laid off 20 grass-roots lobbyists and publicists in its five regional offices, company officials said. The Monday morning conference call that announced the job cuts effectively ends Fannie's long reign as the king of ribbon-cutting politics -- its controversial use of favors to and friends of members of Congress to get what it wants on Capitol Hill.

The workers laid off Monday helped direct a grass-roots network considered among the most sophisticated and extensive political-influence machines in corporate America, exceeding even the much-storied programs of AT&T Corp. and a range of military contractors.

The changes are part of an effort by Fannie's new chief executive, Daniel H. Mudd, to de-emphasize political maneuvering and refocus on the company's core mission of keeping the home mortgage markets well funded. The company's credibility was badly tarnished last year by a $10.8 billion accounting scandal that led to the ouster of Franklin D. Raines as chief executive and from which it is still struggling to recover.

snip>

Fannie is pressing to pass the bill that would create a new regulator for its industry. It is so eager to enact the legislation that it has instructed its outside lobbyists to approach lawmakers only sparingly, allowing Congress to work unfettered to approve a measure that the company once fought against.

While the company has not been able to release financial statements because of its accounting problems, Fannie's earnings have almost certainly come under pressure lately. The company has had to shrink the size of its investment holdings, which have been its main source of profit. As of July, the latest figure available, the company's investment portfolio was declining at an annualized rate of about 20 percent, to $788.8 million.

[ozymandius]

46. still living up to its moniker "LaLa Land"

10:49
Dow 10,605.56 +46.81 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,151.99 +5.84 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,233.80 +6.07 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 42.54 +0.40 (+0.95%)
NYSE Volume 906,302,000
Nasdaq Volume 793,302,000

[54anickel]

49. Pension Deficit Is Expected to Surge (quadruple in 10 years)

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pension16sep16,1,4564560.story?coll=la-headlines-business

WASHINGTON — The government agency that guarantees worker pensions could see its deficit quadruple over the next decade, jeopardizing the benefits of millions of retirees, a new report says.

In a report made public Thursday, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.'s shortfalls would reach nearly $87 billion over the next decade, up from about $23 billion in 2004.

The report also predicted that the pension insurer's deficit could rise to $119 billion in 15 years and $142 billion over 20 years as it is forced to take over pension plans in the airline, steel and other troubled industries.

"Based on this report, the choice is either for pensioners to lose over $100 billion in promised retirement benefits or for taxpayers to get slapped with a $100-billion bill for failed private pension plans. Neither is acceptable," said House Budget Committee Chairman Jim Nussle (R-Iowa).

snip>

The new Congressional Budget Office estimate "would be bad news for taxpayers under any circumstances," said the Budget Committee's top Democrat, John Spratt of South Carolina. "But the news is even worse because of record federal budget deficits that are growing larger with the costs of Katrina relief and the war in Iraq."

What did Snowball just say earlier again? :eyes:
Yet another Raygun legacy

more...

[ozymandius]

53. 11:45 update and blather

Dow 10,607.30 +48.55 (+0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,149.87 +3.72 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,232.68 +4.95 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 42.69 +0.55 (+1.31%)
NYSE Volume 1,178,791,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,016,026,000

11:30AM: The stock market holds steady as upward efforts are at a current standstill... The Treasury market, meanwhile, remains underwater, shoving the benchmark 10-year note (-14/32) to its biggest weekly drop in over two months. The morning's consumer confidence read effectively exacerbated the inflation concerns that yesterday's economic calendar - specifically the prices paid portions of two regional manufacturing reports - piqued. As a result, the 10-year's yield has reached its highest level in four weeks, presently offering investors 4.27%...

11:00AM: Range-bound trading persists as each sector remains steadily above the unchanged mark. Technology, which accounts for over 15% of the S&P's weighting, currently places fourth with its 0.5% gain. Despite an upgrade of Intel (INTC 24.80 +0.25), and the stock's subsequent 1.1% rise, chip stocks as a whole remain weak, as evidenced in just 4 of the PHLX Semi Index's 19 components trading above water - action that is challenging a broader upside move in tech...SOX -0.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 1712/1238, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1479/1189

[54anickel]

54. Gold hits $461 as mining stocks rally

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=moreover&guid={A75519CE-ED61-49D9-ADBD-033F1750C6F4}

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures and mining stocks resumed their rally Friday, as safe-haven buying pushed the price of the precious metal to fresh highs for 2005.

A turn higher in the U.S. dollar served to blunt gold's advance, but only marginally. The greenback's gains stemmed from U.S. data that showed foreign capital inflows rising in July. See Currencies.

snip>

"Having broken last year's high at $457, the way is now clear for fresh highs," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. He pegged the new major upside target for gold at $475 to $480 an ounce.

"The overall picture for gold hasn't been this good in years," said Peter Gramlich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

He repeated his forecast that gold's headed toward the $500-an-ounce mark, citing "strong physical buying, dwindling affects from central-bank sales and continuing deficits in mine supply."

more...

CBs losing control? Juggling too many balls?

[54anickel]

55. Gold miners stand out as price surges

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=moreover&guid={4F2914EB-B970-4867-921C-76B752C0F874}

"While inflation fears look like the major driver for this latest move in gold prices, it is the underlying physical supply/demand deficit that may maintain higher price levels through the longer term," noted analysts at Numis Securities.

Spot gold traded as high as $457 an ounce.

Overall, the FTSE 100 index (UK:UKX: news, chart, profile) gained 0.52% at 5,411.

Numis said its top picks in the listed gold-mining sector are Peter Hambro Mining (UK:POG: news, chart, profile) , which was up 1.9% in London trading, Ballarat Goldfields (UK:BGF: news, chart, profile) , up 4.6%, Bema Gold (UK:BAU: news, chart, profile) , up 4.4%, and Frontier Mining (UK:FML: news, chart, profile) , which was recently down 1.7%.

As well, mining majors Rio Tinto (RTP: news, chart, profile) (UK:RIO: news, chart, profile) and Anglo American (AAUK: news, chart, profile) (UK:AAL: news, chart, profile) showed strong gains for a second day. The mining sector rose Thursday on upbeat comments relating to Chinese demand and positive broker comment.

more...

Wasn't it just a couple of week ago that they were saying rising energy costs were going to cut into miner's profits?

[54anickel]

56. Pendulum Swings To Gold Over Oil (Wille)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie091605.html

LAST JANUARY: SIGNAL TO BUY ENERGY STOCKS
Back in Jan2005 a chart screamed out "move to energy stocks from gold miner stocks!!!" which turned out to be very sage advice. Here is the chart which was laid out in "Oil to Prevail over Gold" back at the time eight months ago. Technicals rarely are cited for ratio charts with any degree of assuredness that markets will respond in a timely fashion. The right side breakout on the shoulder had not occurred at the time. A classic bullish inverted "Head & Shoulders" pattern was clearly evident within the weekly chart, whose time stamp was 30-Dec-2004. This analyst pounded the table to buy energy stocks. They ran up for the next three months.

ENERGY STOCKS KICKED BUTT & TOOK NAMES
The XOI index for energy producers & explorers has risen from 720 to 1070 since January, a 50% move. The OSX index for energy services has risen from 125 to 170 since January, a 35% move, not without a spring selloff. The signal was true to form, profitable for those who heeded it. Gold and its miners struggled during the entire spring, as the Hat Trick Letter forecasted.

ENERGY/ MINER RATIO HAS REACHED ITS TARGET
A most remarkable completed chart can be presented, the rest of the first chart after time has passed, and the markets played out. The Jan2005 chart has reached its conclusion, with target reached. The XOI/HUI ratio of energy stocks to mining stocks hit a low back in Nov2003 with a 2.0 ratio. That is the head. The neckline was clearly at the 3.5 level, which previewed a rise on the breakout to 5.0 eventually. The actual breakout occurred shortly after the original article was published. Notice the rebuff at the target 5.0 ratio, which failed at retest, and now sits at the 4.77 level as of this Tuesday close. Energy stocks are pulling back in recent days. It is early, but Valero has come off highs, Exxon Mobil has come down, as have many other energy stocks and their indexes themselves. The same classic bullish inverted "Head & Shoulders" pattern has clearly reached its target within the weekly chart, whose time stamp was 9-Sept-2005.

NEXT, MINERS WILL TAKE LEADERSHIP
The goldbug precious metal miner stock index is poised for a very hefty move up. It is early, but the chart in 2005 months appears to exhibit a similarly bullish "Cup & Handle" pattern. A base at 170, a top at 220, and a target of 270 are in store. Note that the gold price (over 450) is near multi-year highs, but the HUI index is nowhere yet near its 240-250 highs registered in late 2003 and late 2004. Just as energy stocks caught up to the higher energy physical prices, the mining stocks are certain to catch up to the higher gold price.

[54anickel]

79. Gold or the Government, which do you believe?

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=46664

Earlier this week, Wall Street Pollyannas reacted with glee to the release of seemingly mild producer and consumer prices data. While August PPI and CPI rose .6% and .5%, annualizing to 7.5% and 6% respectively, the completely meaningless, highly manipulated, “core” numbers, which have conveniently become the only figures making headlines, were far less alarming. According to the government, August “core” PPI was unchanged, while “core” CPI rose a scant .1%.



However, not to be fooled, the price of gold, considered by many to be the ultimate inflation indicator, rose to a new seventeen year high, gaining about ten dollars this week, and over twenty dollars in the last three. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained about 7% on the week, bringing its three-week gain to 17%. Gold’s recent surge confirms the break-out that I first wrote about on June 6th “Gold & Oil Could Force Surprise ECB Rate Hike” and again on June 17th “Gold’s Trifecta Reveals Dollar’s Diminished Status” available on my web site at <http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2005&qtr=2>



As the price of Gold tends to rise in inflationary periods, economists should ask themselves if they believe the government or gold. History and recent anecdotal evidence certainly favor gold. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturers report for September revealed that despite a sharp slowdown, its prices paid index surged 257 points to its highest reading since January. In addition, this week the national average price of unleaded gasoline breached the three dollar per gallon level for the first time ever, exceeding the inflation adjusted peak of $2.94 set back in 1981. Actually, today’s average would be even higher if it reflected the same percentage of gas sold at full service prices as was the case 1981.



Also the week saw fresh releases of trade and current account deficit data. As an example of the power of diminished expectations, July’s horrific $57.9 Billion trade deficit was greeted as good news, as it was less than the slightly more horrifying $60 billion that had been feared. The second quarter current account deficit, which came in at a higher than expected $195.7 billion, would have been a new all-time record, had it not been for the upward revision of the first quarter current account deficit to $198.7 billion. The $3 billion narrowing in the quarterly current account deficit (the first time since 2003) can hardly be seen as progress, as it resulted entirely from a $4.4 billion reduction in foreign aid. Widening trade and current account deficits will exert additional downward pressure on the dollar and upward pressure on consumer prices. Finally, President Bush’s “Marshall Plan” for the Gulf Coast will only fuel inflation’s fire, as the money needed to fund it will either be created by the Fed, or borrowed from abroad.

more...

[54anickel]

60. Detroit's in the Rearview

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/natworden/10242877.html

Bankruptcy roiled the airline industry this week, as spiking fuel costs dealt Delta (DAL:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) and Northwest (NWAC:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take) a losing hand. Will Detroit be the next to fold?

On top of untenable health care costs, exhausted promotions and dwindling market share, the gasoline price shock that followed Hurricane Katrina has made the product missteps of General Motors (GM:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take), Daimler-Chrysler (DCX:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) and Ford (F:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) seem all the more threatening. No more are gas-guzzling trucks and sport utility vehicles flying off the lots. With consumers getting stingy, Detroit's Big Three might not face imminent insolvency, but they're acting like roadkill all the same.

Meanwhile, the cheaper, fuel-efficient alternatives offered by Japanese manufacturers have given shareholders of Toyota (TM:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) and Honda (HMC:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) a sweet ride as of late.

As crude oil futures trading on the Nymex crossed the $60 mark in late June, shares of these two stocks caught fire. Since the beginning of July, Toyota shares have gained more than 20% while Honda has added almost 11%.

On one level, Honda and Toyota have benefited from the aggressive summer promotional campaigns adopted by the Big Three after GM posted a 46% jump in unit sales in June on its "employee discount" program. Sales at GM, Ford and Daimler-Chrysler all benefited from the ensuing price war, but their Japanese counterparts held their ground as well. Since Toyota and Honda didn't have to sacrifice profit margins to compete, investors smelled opportunity and jumped onboard.

more...

[54anickel]

64. 1:13 numbers and drivel

Dow 10,601.19 +42.44 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq 2,149.01 +2.86 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,232.25 +4.52 (+0.37%)
10-yr Bond 4.266% +0.05
30-yr Bond 4.569% +0.06
NYSE Volume 1,515,416,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,281,094,000

1:00PM : Little has changed for the equity market as buyers remain in control of the action... Consumer Discretionary has inched back from the red, as strength in McDonald's (MCD 34.42 +0.97) and solid follow-through in Time Warner (TWX 18.92 +0.42) offset consolidation Home Depot (HD 39.92 -0.42) and Lowe's (LOW 65.32 -0.76) shares. Further digestion of a disappointing consumer confidence report that reflected the lowest read since 1992, amid a day that offers little news to share the spotlight, continues to weigh on Retail (-0.5%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1647/1519, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1498/1380
12:30PM : Over the past half hour, the Consumer Discretionary sector has relinquished its morning gain, as rising bond yields weigh on the rate-sensitive S&P Homebuilding group (-3.3%), joining Industrials in negative territory... Meanwhile, Healthcare (+0.08%) struggles to maintain its positive footing...

Weighing on the latter has been weakness in Biotech (BTK -0.3%), modest declines in healthcare facilities and equipment and a lack of participation amongst heavily-weighted large drug stocks (+0.04%). Over the course of the week, healthcare distributors, however, have been one of the best performing industry groups, adding a 4% gain to a 20.5% year-to-date return...NYSE Adv/Dec 1606/1534, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1472/1367

12:00PM : The indices head into the lunch hour within the tight trading range of the morning, with nine economic sectors posting gains despite a dearth of news on both the corporate and economic fronts...

However, total volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq - having already surpassed 1.0 bln shares due to quadruple witching and completion of S&P rebalancing - has provided some encouraging conviction behind the market's broad-based advance on the heels of yesterday's gridlocked session and three prior declining days during which all three major averages lost more than 1.0%. With respect to sector performances, Energy (+0.9%) has put in the first-place gain as an analyst upgrade of Exxon-Mobil (XOM 63.43 +0.97) has overshadowed the effects of easing prices across the energy complex, with crude sporting a $63.75/bbl price tag... Despite the surge in bond yields, the influential Financial (+0.7%) sector, getting a boost from renewed buying efforts in large-cap banks (i.e. BAC, JPM and WFC) and select insurance stocks (i.e. ALL, STA and HIG), has turned in the second best performance, further supporting the market's recovery efforts... Huh?

Technology (+0.2%) has also provided leadership, but the sector's advance has been stunted by weakness in semiconductors (off 1.4%) that effectively offsets Intel's (INTC 24.80 +0.25) upgrade-related jump... The Materials sector has also been an area of strength today, largely on the back of Louisiana Pacific (LPX 26.89 +0.77) and Lyondell Chemical (LYO 27.51 +0.30), both enjoying analyst upgrades, as well as a 2% surge in Phelps Dodge (PD 112.75 +2.25)...

Separately, strength in overseas markets, as the FTSE 100 rose 0.6%, the CAC 40 gained 0.8%, and the DAX surged 1.7%, coupled with President Bush's delivery last night of Gulf Coast economic recovery details, may have helped trigger the early bias and buying efforts responsible for the indices current gains...

It may be worth noting, however, that early bargain-hunting efforts, as evidenced in upbeat futures trading and a strong open, have somewhat stalled, perhaps in part to a wider than expected account deficit in Q2 ($195.7 bln versus consensus of $193.0 bln) and weak consumer confidence report. The disappointing read on Sept. sentiment (76.9 versus the 85.0 consensus and 89.1 Aug. figure), though, has been minimized by the fact that the market foresaw a considerable Katrina-induced decline, as well as an understanding that the data don't correlate well with consumer spending trends. While the stock market has demonstrated resilience, the Treasury market has conversely headed lower amid elevated inflation worries and pushed the benchmark 10-year note (-13/32) to its biggest weekly drop in over two months...NYSE Adv/Dec 1667/1442, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1445/1384

[54anickel]

66. US Airways Gets OK to Emerge From Ch. 11

Judge Approves US Airways Plan to Emerge From Chapter 11, Clears Way for America West Merger

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050916/us_airways_bankruptcy.html?.v=10

ALEXANDRIA, Va. (AP) -- US Airways received approval Friday to emerge from Chapter 11 protection, clearing the way for the nation's seventh-largest airline to merge with America West Holdings Corp.

US Airways Group Inc. must wait at least 10 days before formally emerging from bankruptcy. It expects to emerge and formally close on its merger with America West, the nation's eighth largest airline, late this month or in early October.

After Friday's hearing, Bruce Lakefield, chief executive of US Airways, said he is confident that the merger will succeed despite record fuel prices and tough competition in the industry.

"Ticket prices are going up," he said. "You've got to face the fact that customers will have to pay for the product."

snip>

The judge's approval came after he ruled on the last remaining objections to the airline's plan of reorganization. Most significantly, the airline's unions had objected to an executive severance package that would provide $12 million in pay to 11 top executives who will not be given jobs with the merged airline.

Mitchell approved the severance package, saying it was in line with executive contracts in the airline industry.

:argh:

more...

[54anickel]

67. Merck Lawyer Tries to Block Medical Expert

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050916/vioxx_litigation.html?.v=2

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. (AP) -- Merck & Co. attorneys unsuccessfully tried to block a plaintiff's medical expert from testifying Friday in the second product liability suit over Merck's withdrawn painkiller Vioxx.

The renowned cardiologist, Dr. Benedict Lucchesi, was part of the team that originally developed the pacemaker. Lucchesi, a professor of pharmacology at the University of Michigan Medical School, is expected to testify on the impact of medications on the heart.

Merck contended there is no firm scientific evidence to support Lucchesi's conclusion that brief use of Vioxx caused a heart attack in the plaintiff, 60-year-old postal worker Frederick "Mike" Humeston of Boise, Idaho.

Humeston, whose doctor prescribed Vioxx for lingering pain from a Vietnam War knee wound, had been taking Vioxx for barely two months when he had a heart attack on Sept. 18, 2001.

lots more....

[ozymandius]

68. Hanging in mid-air, these numbers (updated blather)

1:31
Dow 10,602.14 +43.39 (+0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,148.72 +2.57 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,232.29 +4.56 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 42.69 +0.55 (+1.31%)
NYSE Volume 1,579,014,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,328,477,000

1:30PM: The market's majors contiue to vacillate within the session's tight trading range... Airlines have ascended to the number one seat within the S&P, posting a 3.8% gain and reiterating the third-ranked month-to-date-performance (+7.5%) that helps erase some of its 17.3% year-to-date decline...
On the other side of the aisle today are the homebuilders (-3.5%), stuck in the S&P's last place position, led by a 4.0% plunge in Pulte Homes (PHM 44.16 -1.84) and respective losses of 2.7% in Centex (CTX 64.94 -1.79) and KB Homes (KBH 75.00 -2.05). On a year-to-date basis, however, the group's 27.5% gain leads the Consumer Discretionary sector and sits amongst the highest flying of the S&P's 139 groups...NYSE Adv/Dec 1697/1475, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1531/1354

[54anickel]

70. When do they decide it's not a good week-end to be holding stocks

after-all. :eyes:

Any bets on a 2:00 wake-up call?

[ozymandius]

71. If I were a betting man, I'd play the stock market.

But numbers are heading up again at 1:58. Meanwhile, bonds get hammered.

Dow 10,610.34 +51.59 (+0.49%)
Nasdaq 2,150.88 +4.73 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,233.05 +5.32 (+0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 42.74 +0.60 (+1.42%)
NYSE Volume 1,690,925,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,417,952,000

[54anickel]

72. Heh, wow - staight up spike in Dow and NAS right at 2:00

[ozymandius]

74. Seems that people are betting that it's hit its low for the day. (edited)

It will be interesting to see if range-bound action occurs again. There look to be tests right now to push this morning's early averages.

[54anickel]

78. Financial and Energy are the leading sectors for the day? Wierd...n/t

[54anickel]

73. What's this "S&P's implementation to a float-adjusted methodology"

From the 2:00 blather -

2:00PM: Major averages trade near their best levels of the afternoon, as the bulk of sector leadership remains positive...
Aside from gains in Financial, Energy, Tech and Health Care, Consumer Staples has also showed relative strength, even as Wal-Mart (WMT 44.06 -0.26) hits its worst levels in more than three years. Wal-Mart, the most penalized of the 500 S&P constituents, as the index completes its re-weighting by the close of the trading today, remains the second most influential (13.2%) component within Consumer Staples. WMT's weighting in the S&P, which was more than 2.0% on March 18 - the year's busiest trading day on the NYSE (2.34 bln shares) - dropped to around 1.5% by the end of June and will stand at 1.2% by the end of the day... However, strength among drug retailers (i.e. WAG, CVS), grocers (i.e. KR, SWY, ABS) and food wholesalers (i.e. SYY, SVU) has so far offset weakness from WMT and other consumer staples components like CPB (-0.4%), K (-0.4%), PBG (-1.7%), WWY (-0.2%) and KO (-0.6%) that are feeling the pinch from the S&P's implementation to a float-adjusted methodology...NYSE Adv/Dec 1697/1457, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1534/1372

[ozymandius]

75. I've yet to figure that one out.

Any guess if this has entered a market glossary yet? :shrug:

[54anickel]

77. Did a quick Google - interesting stuff

Google may join S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 indexes by year-end

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=31067467&brk=1

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Many investors who shunned Google's controversial open-auction IPO last year as too risky are kicking themselves after the stock's meteoric rise.

Now, whether they love the company's growth prospects or see the stock as overpriced as it trades in the $300 range, shares of the online search engine are poised to enter millions of investors' portfolios.

The reason? Market experts think Google Inc. (GOOG) may join widely-tracked benchmarks as soon as the end of the year, forcing index-funds and their legions of shareholders to snap up the stock.

snip>

Further complicating matters is that S&P is in the midst of some big methodology revisions to its stock indexes, which could make adding Google particularly messy.

S&P is halfway through a move to "free-float" weighting that is set to wrap up in September. In float-adjusted indexes, a company's individual weight is determined by only shares available for purchase on public markets, excluding shares held by company insiders, for example.

Furthermore, S&P is scheduled in mid-December to completely overhaul its "style" indexes tracking the growth and value components of the market.

"That might be a good time for Google to go into the S&P 500," said Schoenfeld at Northern Trust. "The committee has to ask itself if the S&P 500 truly represents the large-cap market without Google."

more...



http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/pdf/S&PFloatImpactonEarnings230205.pdf


There were a lot more hits, but I'm pressed for time right now to read through them all. Looks like Squalmart took a hit on the first 1/2 of the implementation as well. From Oct 2004 -

http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:RodXa-pkD94J:www.gbop.com/invest/pdf/fundrep/dsf_mr.pdf+S%26P+float-adjusted+methodology&hl=en

snip>

Changes to the S&P 500 as a result of the implementation ofthe new float methodology were largely in line with expectations. The cumulative change, which will be implemented during two stages, is expected to create 3.3% ofturnover and track to the current index within 25 basis points on an annualized basis. The largest decrease is Wal-Mart Inc which is expected to see an industry wide sell of slightly more than $9 billion dollars. It should be noted, following S&P’sannouncement, Wal-Mart made public plans to buy back up to $10 billion dollars to help offset the expected sell pressure.Figure 3 shows the change in sector weights that will be realized as a result from the migration to the new index. S&Pwill be publishing a provisional index starting on the 15th of October

[ozymandius]

76. Stocks rise after Exxon, Intel upgrades

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Friday after brokerage upgrades of Dow components Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM - news) and Intel Corp. (Nasdaq:INTC - news) boosted blue chips and helped end a three-day losing streak on the Nasdaq.

Deutsche Bank raised its rating on Exxon Mobil to "buy" from "hold," saying oil supplies are likely to remain tight over the coming year. Exxon Mobil shares climbed 2 percent to $63.73.

-cut-

The Exxon upgrade helped outweigh a $1.10 decline in crude oil futures to $63.70 per barrel. Crude fell after the government said Hurricane Katrina did not cause major damage to underwater pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico. October gasoline hit its lowest level since the storm and was down 8.12 cents at $1.813 a gallon.

Market sentiment was also buoyed by the prospect of business opportunities following President George W. Bush's pledge of extensive federal aid to help rebuild areas along the U.S. Gulf Coast that were damaged by Katrina.

more

[54anickel]

80. Hmmm, just coincidence that the S&P float thingie comes on the same

day as the quadruple-witching thingie?

Analysts expect volatile trading as four types of September futures and options contracts expire on Friday. That event, known as "quadruple witching," could have many investors sprucing up portfolios or exercising derivative positions.

[54anickel]

82. 3:01 and shooting for the moon!

Dow 10,630.48 +71.73 (+0.68%)
Nasdaq 2,155.95 +9.80 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 1,235.57 +7.84 (+0.64%)
10-yr Bond 4.261% +0.05
30-yr Bond 4.555% +0.04
NYSE Volume 1,998,033,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,644,125,000

[54anickel]

84. Splash o' blather

3:00PM: The market's trek north continues, momentum for which the Financial sector (+1.0%) - which accounts for over 20% of the overall S&P 500 - is largely responsible. Despite sustained weakness in the bond market, the interest rate sensitive sectors' bellwethers have surged this afternoon. To that end, American Express (AXP 58.77 +1.21) and JP Morgan (JPM 34.93 +0.80) have fueled the Dow while simultaneously fostering respective 1.6% gains in the S&P's consumer finance and diversified banks groups. Leadership across the sector is broad-based, though, with Bank of America (BAC 43.56 +0.83), Wells Fargo (WFC 59.84 +1.23), Wachovia (WB 49.36 +0.45) and US Bancorp (USB 29.91 +0.30) - four S&P components whose weightings are being increased today - also lending much of the support and helping shave a third of the sector's year-to-date loss...NYSE Adv/Dec 1751/1468, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1621/1329

2:30PM: Nearing the close of commodity trading for the week, the market has found additional strength as crude oil stumbles to fresh session lows and below $63/bbl... Energy, however, has held on to its 1% gain, accompanying Financial as the day's two best performing sectors. Integrated oil and gas is the sector's particular bright spot, up 1.6% on the session and offsetting profit-taking within the refiners group today... With its sizeable 30% gain, the integrated oil segment remains Energy's laggard, further evidencing the sector's very strong year-to-date advance...NYSE Adv/Dec 1786/1421, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1639/1311

[spotbird]

86. What is really going on?

The worse the news the better the rally, what's up with that?

[AnneD]

89. trying to get the suckers

into the side show tent.

[ozymandius]

87. Rounding the corner - LaLa Land sees pie in that sky

Even bonds are retracing lost ground
3:38
Dow 10,640.67 +81.92 (+0.78%)
Nasdaq 2,158.79 +12.64 (+0.59%)
S&P 500 1,237.04 +9.31 (+0.76%)
10-Yr Bond 42.62 +0.48 (+1.14%)
NYSE Volume 2,256,025,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,827,559,000

3:30PM: Market extends its reach and again establishes another new high for the day. While the influential Financial sector's (+1.2%) continued rise still leads the rally, leadership across the board has strengthened while huge volumes have provided even further conviction behind the market's upside momentum... Consumer Staples heads into the close with a 0.7% gain, surpassing its year-to-date rise, while Tech (+0.6%) has picked up steam and boosted the Nasdaq as the semiconductor group (-0.1%) pares some of its day-long loss...
Telecom's performance, which has recently reached a session high (+1.2%), is even more significant when its -7.6% year-to-date return and last-place status are considered...NYSE Adv/Dec 1877/1383, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1833/1151

[54anickel]

88. Hedge funds take a lashing

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0509160211sep16,1,6817738.story?coll=chi-business-hed

A tough market made worse by Hurricane Katrina is roiling the energy desks of two big Chicago-area hedge funds, causing heavy losses and costing several traders their jobs.

Both Chicago-based Citadel Investment Group LLC and Ritchie Capital Management LLC in suburban Geneva have found themselves on the losing side of big trades involving natural gas and electricity, market sources say.

Neither firm would comment, but Platts Commodity News, an industry trade publication, estimated the total losses at more than $250 million. Citadel, which has $12.5 billion in assets under management, lost at least $150 million, the report said. Ritchie, with $3 billion in assets, reportedly lost more than $100 million.

The exact time frame of the losses wasn't clear. But sources said bad positions soured further when Katrina hit the energy infrastructure near New Orleans and heavily disrupted the markets for oil and natural gas.

snip>

"What underpins this is Katrina," Griffin told Platts. "The market really thought there was a probability that we would be oversupplied in winter, and a lot of people went short."

more...

edit to add...Weren't we reading about higher natural gas even before Katrina hit?

[ozymandius]

90. at the close

Jeebus - look at the volume!

Dow 10,641.94 +83.19 (+0.79%)
Nasdaq 2,160.35 +14.20 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,237.91 +10.18 (+0.83%)
10-Yr Bond 42.62 +0.48 (+1.14%)
NYSE Volume 3,096,249,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,269,916,000

Close: The market's majors closed the session at week-highs, breaking out of a tight trading range during the final two hours amid broad-based leadership and huge volume. Despite a dearth of news on both the corporate and economic fronts today, buyers started off bullish, eyeing bargains in the wake of yesterday's stalemate session and three previous days of declines during which the major indices each lost at least 1.0%...

Pullbacks in prices across the energy complex aided the upbeat sentiment and underpinned buying interest that closed each economic sector solidly above the flat line. Total volume on the Nasdaq surpassed 2 bln shares and volume on the Big Board came close (1.8 bln), doubling from lunch to the close on account of quadruple witching options expiration and completion of the S&P's rebalancing initiative, providing even further conviction behind the market's broad-based rally... The influential Financial sector's performance fueled the market's momentum, as the sector comprises over a fifth of the weighting on the S&P and posted the best gain of the day...

Despite sustained weakness in the Treasury market that wielded surging yields, the interest-rate sensitive sector rose 1.4%, as participation from each of its mainstays spearheaded the way. American Express (AXP 59.46 +1.90) and JP Morgan (JPM 34.99 +0.86) took the Dow north, while Bank of America (BAC 43.68 +0.95), Wells Fargo (WFC 59.97 +1.36), Wachovia (WB 49.71 +0.80) and US Bancorp (USB 29.95 +0.34) - four S&P components whose weightings were increased today - also extended strong support and helped shave more than one third of the sector's year-to-date loss...

Have a great weekend everyone!

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

95. Oops, afraid I duped ya. Refresh didn't pick your close up before I

posted.

Big volume, big bargains, big expirations. And that new floating thingie on the S&P had something to do with P/E ratios from what I scanned - something to study over the weekend. :hi:

[Lori Price CLG]

91. Thanks for these Stock Market Watches, ozymandius!!

They are appreciated.

Lori Price

[ozymandius]

93. You're welcome Lori!

And thanks for saying...

:hi:

[Lori Price CLG]

97. I do notice a stock market trend over the past five years, though.

Whenever Bush speaks, the stock market always *DROPS.*

One action that could help the economy would be for Bush to shut his mouth, <g>.

:hi: Lori

[ozymandius]

99. Ahhh... the now-famous *piehole* effect.

Bush's piehole is a dangerous apparatus. It is much better suited for chewing pie than presidential decision making.

[54anickel]

92. Closin' time

Dow 10,641.94 +83.19 (+0.79%)
Nasdaq 2,160.35 +14.20 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,237.91 +10.18 (+0.83%)
10-yr Bond 4.262% +0.05
30-yr Bond 4.555% +0.04
NYSE Volume 3,097,119,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,269,039,000

The market's majors closed the session at week-highs, breaking out of a tight trading range during the final two hours amid broad-based leadership and huge volume. Despite a dearth of news on both the corporate and economic fronts today, buyers started off bullish, eyeing bargains in the wake of yesterday's stalemate session and three previous days of declines during which the major indices each lost at least 1.0%...

Pullbacks in prices across the energy complex aided the upbeat sentiment and underpinned buying interest that closed each economic sector solidly above the flat line. Total volume on the Nasdaq surpassed 2 bln shares and volume on the Big Board came close (1.8 bln), doubling from lunch to the close on account of quadruple witching options expiration and completion of the S&P's rebalancing initiative, providing even further conviction behind the market's broad-based rally... The influential Financial sector's performance fueled the market's momentum, as the sector comprises over a fifth of the weighting on the S&P and posted the best gain of the day...

Despite sustained weakness in the Treasury market that wielded surging yields, the interest-rate sensitive sector rose 1.4%, as participation from each of its mainstays spearheaded the way. American Express (AXP 59.46 +1.90) and JP Morgan (JPM 34.99 +0.86) took the Dow north, while Bank of America (BAC 43.68 +0.95), Wells Fargo (WFC 59.97 +1.36), Wachovia (WB 49.71 +0.80) and US Bancorp (USB 29.95 +0.34) - four S&P components whose weightings were increased today - also extended strong support and helped shave more than one third of the sector's year-to-date loss...

Running close behind was Energy (+1.1%), bolstered by an analyst upgrade on Exxon-Mobil (XOM 63.70 +1.24) that overshadowed the falling crude factor...

The Consumer Staples fared well, ending 0.4% higher even as Wal-Mart (WMT 43.87 -0.45) - the sector's heaviest member and the most penalized of the 500 S&P constituents with respect to the index re-weighting - hit its worst levels over three years. Strength among drug retailers like Walgreens (WAG 45.17 +0.72) and CVS (CVS 29.85 +0.76), as well as grocers - Kroger (KR 20.55 +0.10), Safeway (SWY 25.05 +0.43) and Albertson's (ABS 26.00 +0.16) - far offset the weakness Wal-Mart shared with Pepsi Bottling (PBG 28.13 -0.27) and Coca-Cola (KO 43.40 -0.23), which were also among those adversely impacted by the S&P's weight adjustment... Even Telecom (1.2%), off 7.6% this year, found renewed buying interest... Separately, a disappointing read on Katrina-roiled consumer sentiment did not ultimately phase the stock market, but did exacerbate inflation concerns for Treasury investors, who pushed the 10-year note to a 4.27% yield...DJTA +1.02, DJUA +1.14, DOT +1.01, Nasdaq 100 +0.69, Russell 2000 +0.98, SOX +0.32, S&P Midcap 400 +0.48, XOI +0.42, NYSE Adv/Dec 1945/1333, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1907/1135

Have a great weekend :hi:

[ozymandius]

98. Yikes - look at the difference in yield between 10 and 30 yrs!

Do you think we'd see a panic if the yields were the same or reversed?

[jdog]

94. Yes, thank you!

I almost never post, but I read this thread every day. YOU ARE THE BEST!!!

[ozymandius]

96. Thank you too.

Your sharing is greatly appreciated.

:hi: