Katrina forecasters were remarkably accurate

[RamboLiberal]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9369041/

For all the criticism of the Bush administration’s confused response to Hurricane Katrina, at least two federal agencies got it right: the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center.

They forecast the path of the storm and the potential for devastation with remarkable accuracy.

The performance by the two agencies calls into question claims by President Bush and others in his administration that Katrina was a catastrophe that no one envisioned.

For example, Bush told ABC on Sep. 1 that “I don’t think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees.” In its storm warnings, the hurricane center never used the word “breached.” But a day before Katrina came ashore Aug. 29, the agency warned in capital letters: “SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED.”

<snip>

A photo on the White House Web site shows Bush in Crawford, Texas, watching Mayfield give a briefing on Aug. 28, a day before Katrina smashed ashore with 145-mph winds.

[malaise]

1. But they ignored their own agencies

and are now attacking the people who took them seriously.

[RamboLiberal]

4. BTW, Senator Santorum of my State (Love to give him to VA)

is using this in his effort to try to privatize the weather forecasting to one of his campaign donors, Accuweather.

From the article posted:

AccuWeather Inc. senior meteorologist Michael Steinberg said emergency managers and the public could have been given an earlier warning of Katrina’s threat to New Orleans. He said the private company had issued forecasts nearly 12 hours earlier than the hurricane center warning that Katrina was aiming at the area.

He said that difference was significant because it would have given more daylight hours for evacuations.

[karlrschneider]

2. I and some other DUers said Saturday it would landfall around Biloxi

just skirting NOLA a little to the east. I can prolly dig up the thread if search is working, didn't check today...

edit: found one of the posts, it was sunday afternoon.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=4487871

[Hissyspit]

12. Sunday, I said to my family "We've lost New Orleans."

while we were playing cards.

[modrepub]

3. That's In Spite of

massive budget cuts by Reagan, bare-bone staffs (have to rely on volunteers, see storm spotters) and outdated equipment (the NHC fly vintage WWII aircraft vs modern jets like the DOE). Please forward to Santorum who seems to have a bug in the ass regarding the NWS needing to drop everything except severe weather forecasting; they have too much to do (true) and should concentrate on this so they can get it right (haha).

[RamboLiberal]

6. Note - Santorum is trying to give to Accuweather

who is a campaign donor. And note the sneaky plug Accuweather gives itself in the posted article to boost Santorum's effort. I bet Accuweather wouldn't have called everyone as the guy Mayfield did. I liken him to the intelligence people in the summer of 2001 who had as Richard Clarke put it "their hair on fire":

AccuWeather Inc. senior meteorologist Michael Steinberg said emergency managers and the public could have been given an earlier warning of Katrina’s threat to New Orleans. He said the private company had issued forecasts nearly 12 hours earlier than the hurricane center warning that Katrina was aiming at the area.

He said that difference was significant because it would have given more daylight hours for evacuations.

[modrepub]

9. Am aware of tricky Ricky

and his accuweather friends. Saw that quote from accuweather and had to laugh. Sure you'll hear about their good calls. The NHC has been doing this for decades and is very sensitive of false alarms. When Gloria went up the east coast in the 80s the NHC issued dire warnings that closed down NYC. When the storm rapidly weakend and the predictions didn't pan out everyone complained about how the NHC cost them billions of dollars. The director quietly resigned after the season. I would love to see a contract that would penalize a private company when their forecasts were wrong.

[Psephos]

11. The planes they fly are the best for the job

I know, because I rode one into a storm with them once. Their crews trust those planes, literally with their lives.

They're P3 Orion turboprops, and there ain't NOTHIN' that's going to knock one of those bad boys down. The P3 Orion is the military version of the Lockheed Electra, which first entered service in 1958. The airframe is very strong, and really built to take abuse.

Beyond a superb safety record, these planes' turboprop engines are superior to pure jets for the job because the engines are more resistant to stall and/or flameout in severe weather.

Peace.

[tanyev]

5. Good thing they were so accurate.

It gave our government plenty of time to prepare and probably saved a lot of lives. Oh, wait.

:grr:

[applegrove]

7. The Question still remains. WHY? Why did Bush stand down and

play monkey in the middle with the governor of Louisianne and "kiss my lists".

[lindisfarne]

8. What do scientists know? It's just a theory. Intelligent Design

predicted the Hurricane would skip across the US to Canada.

[Name removed]

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