STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 20 September

[ozymandius]

Tuesday September 20, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 123 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 274 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 338 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1395
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 19, 2005

Dow... 10,557.63 -84.31 (-0.79%)
Nasdaq... 2,145.26 -15.09 (-0.70%)
S&P 500... 1,231.02 -6.89 (-0.56%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.25% -0.02 (-0.35%)
Gold future... 470.40 +7.10 (+1.51%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

The Forgotten Golden Rules

Empirically, we are living in a period where all vestiges of sound money have been abandoned – globally. History has shown and is a constant reminder that such actions always produce, shall we say, less than desirable outcomes – like social upheaval or war. For the record, I’m no big fan of the former or the latter either!

I also find it noteworthy that the same pundit referenced above, while making disparaging remarks about gold bugs out of one side of his mouth, likes to revel in self adulation regarding his gold trading prowess – all the while being ‘loathsome’ of the resulting profits out of the other side of his mouth. Now that’s a perplexing yet profitable conundrum, no?

What strikes me as being odder yet, said profits would never have been possible without irresponsible profligacy on the part of government or monetary authorities. Does this mean that said pundit favors irresponsible spend thrift government or does it mean he only ascribes to such governance when financial benefits accrue to himself personally?

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Crude Stays Above $67 on Storm Worries

SINGAPORE - Crude oil prices dipped Tuesday but stayed above $67 a barrel while natural gas hit a new all-time amid concerns that Tropical Storm Rita could eventually strike Texas, the heart of U.S. oil production.

Oil prices jumped more than $4 a barrel Monday on fears that Rita would inflict further damage to an industry still reeling from Hurricane Katrina's onslaught three weeks ago.

Chevron Corp., Shell Oil and BP PLC began to evacuate workers on oil facilities in Gulf of Mexico as Rita blew through the Bahamas and advanced on the Florida Keys. Weather forecasters predicted it could become a hurricane within hours, and by the weekend be near Mexico or Texas — or even Louisiana, which was battered by Katrina.

"Everyone's just looking at Rita. It's more psychological right now," said Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo. "But if Rita comes to the Gulf of Mexico and disrupts supply, then we have a problem."

more

[UpInArms]

30. Rita reaches hurricane strength-NHC

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T132320Z_01_N20369816_RTRIDST_0_WEATHER-RITA-HURRICANE.XML

MIAMI, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Rita grew into a category one hurricane on Tuesday as it bore down on the vulnerable Florida Keys, three weeks after Hurricane Katrina killed hundreds on the U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Hurricane Katrina death toll rises to almost 1,000

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-19T222421Z_01_N19186813_RTRIDST_0_KATRINA-TOLL.XML

BATON ROUGE, Louisiana, Sept 19 (Reuters) - The death toll from Hurricane Katrina climbed to 973 on Monday after Louisiana officials raised the number of confirmed fatalities in that state to 736.

There were 218 dead in Mississippi and 19 deaths total confirmed in Florida, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee from the Aug. 29 storm.

The previous toll provided by Louisiana officials was 646 dead as of Sunday morning. The majority of the bodies are being handled at a morgue in the city of St. Gabriel.

Mississippi officials did not return calls for comment on the latest numbers in that state, which last updated its death toll late last week.

[UpInArms]

95. RITA UPGRADED TO CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE, WINDS AT 100 MPH

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={CCACB0C0-E8FB-4BD4-97D5-54DF7D55EB87}&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Upgraded from a tropical storm, Hurricane Rita was bearing down Tuesday on the Florida Keys, taking aim at the battered Gulf of Mexico while keeping pressure on energy prices.

Oil companies said they were evacuating offshore personnel from rigs and platforms in the storm's path as preliminary forecasts show Rita sweeping across much of the same water pounded just three weeks ago by Hurricane Katrina.

In its Tuesday morning update, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said Rita was now packing sustained winds of 74 miles per hour, making it a weak Category 1 hurricane. It's likely to gather strength as it moves into the warmer waters of the Gulf later this week.

The storm's center stood about 100 miles east-southeast of Key West, moving west-northwest at about 15 mph, a course it is expected to hold for the next 24 hours, the center said.

Some 80,000 residents of the Florida Keys were ordered evacuated ahead of the storm, their escape route along a single low causeway connecting the islands.

Rita is pushing before it a dangerous storm surge of up to 7 feet, which could spell more bad news for Gulf Coast communities still drying out from Katrina's floodwaters.

...more...

[54anickel]

99. Oh boy, and I saw in LBN that Jeb is telling those who didn't leave

earlier to "hunker down". Makes sense, too risky to be caught in a traffic jam now. Let's hope Rita isn't bad enough that people will regret not "gettin' while the gettin's good". Thoughts and prayers to all in Rita's path.

Will people be asking Jeb why didn't you use the school buses? Why not a mandatory evacuation? Why didn't you air-lift them out Tuesday morning while there was still time? Etc, etc, etc,...

[UpInArms]

101. I can hardly wait to see the new and improved pictures

of *Co and his brother handing out water to the good folks.

:puke:

[54anickel]

106. Water wasn't the only thing being handed out - that was the photo-op

Here's the behind the scenes take.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/florida/sfl-fema23mar23,0,5221240.story?page=1

State records show Bush re-election concerns played part in FEMA aid
Consultant predicted a `huge mess'


snip>

Two weeks later, a Florida official summarizing the hurricane response wrote that the Federal Emergency Management Agency was handing out housing assistance "to everyone who needs it without asking for much information of any kind."

The records are contained in hundreds of pages of Gov. Jeb Bush's storm-related e-mails initially requested by the South Florida Sun-Sentinel Oct. 13.

The governor's office finally released the documents Friday, after threat of a lawsuit by the newspaper.

snip>

FEMA officials, the governor and the White House have steadfastly denied suggestions that politics played a role in the distribution of hurricane aid in Florida.

"The men and women at FEMA don't give a patooey about who the president is or who the governor is," FEMA Director Michael D. Brown told the newspaper's editorial board in October. "Whenever people say stuff like that … we're just offended by that because that's just not how we operate."

But politics was foremost on the mind of FEMA consultant Glenn Garcelon, who wrote a three-page memo titled "Hurricane Frances -- Thoughts and Suggestions," on Sept. 2.

The Republican National Convention was winding down, and President Bush had only a slight lead in the polls against Democrat John Kerry. Winning Florida was key to the president's re-election. FEMA should pay careful attention to how it is portrayed by the public, Garcelon wrote in the memo, conveying "the team effort theme at every opportunity" alongside state and local officials, the insurance and construction industries, and relief agencies such as the Red Cross.

"What FEMA cannot afford to do is back itself into a corner by feeling it has to be the sole explainer and defender for everything that goes wrong," he wrote. "Further, this is not what the President would want. Plenty is going to go wrong, and his Department of Homeland Security does not want to assume responsibility for all of it."

Garcelon, a former FEMA employee, recommended that "top-level people from FEMA and the White House need to develop a communication strategy and an agreed-upon set of themes and communications objectives."

more...

[UpInArms]

43. Ex-head AEP gas trading desk charged with manipulation

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38615.4056944676-842941640&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Tuesday it charged the former head of the natural gas trading desk at AEP Energy Services, a subsidiary of American Electric Power Co. (AEP) , with attempted manipulation of natural gas prices and reporting false trading information. Joseph Foley allegedly directed other traders between November 2000 and September 2002 to submit false reports on the price and volume of natural gas trades to publications that compile energy price indexes. "Foley's conduct constitutes an attempted manipulation under the Commodity Exchange Act, which, if successful, could have affected prices of NYMEX natural gas futures and options contracts," the agency said.

[54anickel]

80. High oil price gives birth to tide of merger in oil industry

http://english.people.com.cn/200509/20/eng20050920_209682.html

On Sept 19, Norsk Hydro ASA, the 2nd largest petroleum company in Norway announced it will buy U.S.-based oil and gas company Spinnaker Exploration Co. for $2.45 billion. Hydro hopes to obtain the right to exploit oil in the Gulf of Mexico through the deal.

It is reported that Hydro will complete the acquisition with cash. In the meantime, Hydro agreed to assume Spinnaker's debt of $ 110 million. The buying price of $2.45 billion is 34 percent higher than Spinnaker's market value.

"We believe that the deepwater potential in the Gulf of Mexico is considerable," said Hydro President Eivind Reiten. He said the deal is a breakthrough in the company's global strategies.

An analyst in Oslo said, "It's a fairly high price, but due to the substantial upside potential, it may be worth it."

Over 30 years' exploitation has led to sharp decrease in the oil reserve at the North Sea. Hydro and its rival Statoil ASA have been looking for new oil sources. In this April, Statoil ASA acquired Encana Corp.'s $2 billion Gulf of Mexico assets.

more...

[UpInArms]

137. Natural gas, crude recover from lows

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB0C15312%2D98A1%2D4623%2D9E54%2D4B73927CC781%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Natural-gas and crude-oil futures closed above session lows Tuesday, as Hurricane Rita strengthened into a category 2 storm and barreled toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Rita, upgraded to a hurricane from tropical storm status earlier, was headed toward the Gulf of Mexico and the coast of Texas. Southern Louisiana, already flooded from Katrina, was likely to feel at least some of the storm's force.

The storm is tracking to the west at about 15 miles-per-hour and is expected to remain on this course for the next 24 hours, according to the latest update from the National Weather Service. It's carrying maximum sustained winds of 100 miles-per-hour.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for October delivery, in its last day as the frontmonth contract, shed 1.7%, or $1.16, to settle at $66.23 a barrel. The contract added 7% on Monday.

Meanwhile, November crude lost 1.9%, or $1.31, to close at $66.20 a barrel.

"Based on current projections, likely 100% of Gulf of Mexico production will be curtailed for at least a short period," said Kyle Cooper, an analyst at Citigroup.

...more...

[ozymandius]

3. It's all about the Fed and oil today.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Good morning all. I just scanned the news pages and there's very little news beyond those stories about waiting for the Fed to act on interest rates with cues from Rita. This is an odd time when the Fed's reaction appears tied to the weather. As gas and oil prices climb, with reverberations throughout the economy, the Fed's decision making process looks tied to Rita, our newest potential ogre.

A hike in interest rates, IMO, is symbolic of trust that the everything is okay in the Fed's distorted estimation but will harm business interests if a Katrina-sized disaster strikes. Unchanged interest rates evidence weakness. What's the Fed to do?

Talk about a one-two punch! If Rita reaches category 4 and continues to track toward the Texas coast, we will have seen the Gulf recovery and refinery operation shut down inside of a month.

My white knuckles await the news.

Ozy :hi:

[JNelson6563]

4. Agreed

You're so right Ozy, the Fed will raise rates so as not to set off alarms.

We can only hope Rita doesn't turn out to be like Katrina. I don't even want to think of what will happen if that occurs.

Julie

[UpInArms]

24. U.S. Fed starts policy meeting, rate hike on tap

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T130313Z_01_N20363203_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-MEETING.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve policy-makers began a meeting on Tuesday that economists expect will yield an 11th straight interest-rate hike to keep consumer prices tame despite Hurricane Katrina.

The central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee began meeting at 9 a.m. (1300 GMT) as scheduled, a Fed official said. A decision on interest rates is expected around 2:15 p.m. (1815 GMT).

Earlier speculation that the damage the storm wrought on the Gulf Coast might prompt a hiatus in the Fed's rate-rise campaign has given way to broad expectations that the central bank would push ahead with its policy tightening.

As of Monday, according to a Reuters poll, 18 of 22 Wall Street firms that deal directly with the Fed saw another quarter-percentage point hike.

...more...

[54anickel]

34. Fed, After Katrina, Will Rely More on Anecdotes at Rate Meeting

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aEB97htEhWvc&refer=us

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- In Oklahoma City, Robert Funk hears businesses can't pass on higher energy costs to customers. At the Port of Seattle, Mic Dinsmore looks for ``an absolute boom'' in building materials. Rusty Cloutier reports the bars are reopening on Bourbon Street in New Orleans.

Funk, Dinsmore and Cloutier are regional Federal Reserve directors who have been trying to assess how the economy will withstand Hurricane Katrina. They are among 276 board members of regional Fed banks and branches who serve as the central bank's eyes and ears.

Their anecdotal reports will take on more significance at today's Fed meeting on interest rates because policy makers have little hard data on the impact of the country's worst natural disaster. Central bankers must weigh the risks of accelerating inflation against an economic slowdown in the storm's aftermath as they decide whether to raise rates for an 11th straight time.

Anecdotal reports from the Fed regions are ``doubly important'' since the hurricane, Harvey Rosenblum, research director at the Dallas Fed, said in a Sept. 12 interview.

snip>

``Real-time, on-the-ground anecdotes get to us faster than does the information that rolls up through the reporting process,'' Fed Governor Mark W. Olson, a member of the FOMC, said on Sept. 16 after a speech in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. ``Those anecdotes are enormously useful, and we pay a lot of attention to them.''

more...

[AnneD]

49. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: :donut: :donut: Well, at least the rates are tied to something besides Dubya er ah well. I think people all along the Gulf Coast are a bit paranoid about hurricanes after Katrina.....esp since we know the gubment won't do squat for us mere citizens. The gubment is about as impotent as Greenspan, (fixs like Viagra not withstanding). Those people in Galveston are having an espicially hard time. We have been trying to get it out to bypass Houston if you are evacuating. Having grown up with this, I have all my supplies ready, and won't worry until the direction is more certain. Oil rigs will be hammered again if it becomes a cat 4 or 5 hurricane. Oh well, watcha gonna do. Great great grandmother's antique hurricane lamp (a heavy sucker) has seen our family through many a crisis. Happy hunting, and watch out for the bears...

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.31 Change -0.13 (-0.15%)

Dollar Run Temporally Stalls

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3585&Itemid=39

Market Outlook:
Dollar stalls and that is healthy, there can never be substantial gains without consolidation of the previous ones. Canadian dollar continues to surprise as it broke below the multi year low above 1.1700, however given the current market conditions, recent price action in the Loonie, Aussie and Kiwi is most likely unsustainable in a medium term and the market should see the reversal of fortune for the Commodity Block majors.

<snipping charts>

EUR/USD – Euro bulls received temporary relief from the attacking dollar longs as the pair temporarily paused its descent above the 1.2100 figure. A next move by the dollar bulls will most likely see the pair head toward the psychologically important 1.2000 figure with greenback longs breaking below the 1.2041, a euro defensive position established by July 7 daily low. A sustained momentum on the part of the dollar bulls will most likely see the vanguard greenback forces attack the psychologically important 1.2000 handle, with a break below taking on the euro bids around 1.1982, a level marked by the July 26 daily low. Indicators are favoring the dollar bulls with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while oversold Stochastic gives the euro bulls a fighting chance.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen longs continued to hold the dollar advance as the pair failed to gain a foothold above the 111.50 level, currently defended by the 23.6 Fib of the 104.18-113.74 USD rally. As the price action remains subdued, a jump in volatility will most likely see the greenback longs spring into action and attack the Japanese yen positions in a bid to break above the 112.00 figure and with a break to the upside seeing the pair head toward the 112.62, a defensive position established by the August 8 daily spike high. A break above the 112.62 will most likely open the 112.98, a July 19 daily high as a potential target which currently acts as a gateway toward the 2005 high at 113.68. Indicators are beginning to diverge, with momentum indicator above the zero line and MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give greenback bulls enough room to maneuver.

...more...

Ozy's right, it's all about the Fed and oil - with Rita having a starring role.

[54anickel]

27. Gold at near-18-year high (more Fed watching)

http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=uri:2005-09-20T125308Z_01_FOR036923_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-PRECIOUS.xml&pageNumber=0&summit=

LONDON (Reuters) - Investors poured more money into gold in Europe on Tuesday, searching for a haven to protect against rising inflationary fears and uncertainty about the U.S. economy, traders and analysts said.

"It is not just fund buying from the U.S., which is usually the driver. Now we're getting a lot of investor interest in Europe," said Jeremy East, global head of precious metals at Commerzbank. That was also backed up by gold trading at record highs in euro terms at 387.

snip>

Some investors were more cautious ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later in the day, which could reduce the metal's safe-haven appeal if the central bank hinted it was worried about the threat of higher inflation or slower growth in Hurricane Katherine's wake.

snip>

Gold could be in big trouble if the Fed said overall it thought the U.S. economy would be fine despite the stress of high oil prices, Weeks added.

"But if they come out with something more contentious and start to give people the heebie-jeebies about it, then you might well see some more money coming in."

more...

[UpInArms]

32. also found this interesting

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T130221Z_01_L20545975_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-GLOBAL-WRAPUP-4.XML

excerpt:

"We're seeing clients here -- people who haven't been in the market for quite a while -- coming in with quite a large interest to buy gold," he said.

Demand was also strong for copper and for platinum, which rose to more than $930 -- its highest level in 17 months and just over 1 percent off a 24-year peak scaled last year.

[54anickel]

42. And this from the 1st article ties into that -

http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=uri:2005-09-20T125308Z_01_FOR036923_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-PRECIOUS.xml&pageNumber=0&summit=

"We're seeing clients here, people who haven't been in the market for quite a while, coming in with quite a large interest to buy gold," East said.

"These are the sort of clients who will stick it away for a few years."



Then there's this from your article -

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T130221Z_01_L20545975_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-GLOBAL-WRAPUP-4.XML

Gold prices burst above $470 a troy ounce to their highest level since January 1988 as speculative funds sought a tangible store of value, wary of the fuel-injected inflation threat, growing instability in Iraq and rising tensions with Iran and North Korea.

"It is not just fund buying from the U.S., which is usually the driver. Now we're getting a lot of investor interest in Europe," Jeremy East, global head of precious metals at Commerzbank said.

Here I thought they were making headway with Iran and NK, at least from watching the News Hour last night - you'd think NK was our latest pal.

[UpInArms]

6. GM hit with investor lawsuit

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-20T022700Z_01_FLE980855_RTRUKOC_0_US-AUTOS-GM-LAWSUIT.xml

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) was hit with a lawsuit on Monday claiming that it misled investors about its financial outlook before the dramatic earnings warning GM issued in March that battered its shares and debt.

New York-based law firm Milberg Weiss said it filed the suit, which seeks class action status, in federal district court in New York. The suit covers the period from February 25, 2002, to March 16, 2005, a period when the law firm said GM issued more than $18 billion in shares, bonds and other debt securities.

The suit alleges that "the company's debt ratings were materially inflated by defendants' materially false and misleading statements and omissions."

"When the true facts finally began to come out at the end of the Class Period, the price of GM stock, which had closed at $32.71 on March 15, 2005, declined by $4.57 per share, or 14 percent, to close at $28.14 per share on March 16, 2005. The prices of the company's debt securities also declined in the market," the law firm said.

On March 16, GM, the world's largest automaker, shocked markets by warning that its full-year 2005 earnings would be as much as 80 percent below its prior forecast.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. Automakers shift from bad to worse

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-19T190619Z_01_BAU967131_RTRUKOC_0_US-AUTOS-SUMMIT-PREVIEW.xml

DETROIT (Reuters) - A miserable year for U.S. automakers General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) looks set to turn even worse in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

Sales of Detroit's most profitable models, full-sized sport utility vehicles, were already falling earlier this year, before the impact of the hurricane on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

But a spike in gasoline prices to more than $3 per gallon after the storm threatens a sea change in the way American drivers make vehicle purchase decisions, ending a love affair with gas-guzzling SUVs that dates back to the late 1980s.

<snip>

"After gorging on faddish, oversized SUVs for years, while studiously avoiding more rational vehicle choices, drivers in this country have woken up with a relentless hangover from Katrina made up of the double-whammy of tight supplies and jaw-dropping prices," said industry observer Peter DeLorenzo, who runs a closely-watched Web site called Autoextremist.com.

"SUV sales aren't just slowing -- they're crashing to a halt," he told Reuters, referring to traditional truck-based SUVs, not the "crossover" car-based variety that deliver better highway performance and fuel economy.

<snip>

The most serious problems are foreseeable at GM and Ford. GM is due to launch a new lineup of full-sized SUVs in January, and Ford has just introduced its new Explorer, America's perennial best-selling SUV.

...more...

This article is worth reading just for the Iaccoca comments at the end.

[RawMaterials]

29. This is great

"They should get off their asses and build more hybrids," he told The Detroit News.

"Something's got to happen in this town to turn it around, or we're all going down the tubes," Iacocca said.

....


I just cant figure out why cant ford or gm just take apart a honda or Toyota and duplicate what they developed.

to give credit were its due the Japanese government spent most of the money developing the hybrids

[AnneD]

53. As an average consumer......

I have been mulling over getting a hybrid for the last 4 years. My car runs well but is long in the tooth. I had decided to get a hybrid next go round about 2 yrs ago. I am not a tree hugger or kook-I have been in the oil business and know that many product we use are petroleum derivitives and we have no good substitute. Gas is too valuable to waste getting from point A to point B.

[UpInArms]

72. Delphi touches record low on fresh bankruptcy fears

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38615.4935375116-842955548&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Delphi Corp. (DPH) shares fell 14.2% to $2.89 Tuesday, touching on a record low of $2.87 earlier amid ongoing negotiations with General Motors (GM) , its biggest customer, aimed at staving off bankruptcy. The struggling auto-parts maker is looking to strike a cost-cutting and restructuring deal with GM and its unions by Oct. 17 when new U.S. bankruptcy laws take effect.

[UpInArms]

8. Former Prudential broker pleads guilty to fraud

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=fundsNews2&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050919:MTFH15224_2005-09-19_21-52-40_N19323719:1

BOSTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - A former Prudential Securities broker pleaded guilty to charges he executed improper mutual fund trades on behalf of hedge fund clients, federal authorities said on Monday.

U.S. Attorney Michael Sullivan last month charged Martin Druffner with four counts of wire fraud and four counts of securities fraud for his involvement in a trading scheme of mutual fund shares between 1999 and 2003.

"He recognizes that he made some mistakes in his career at Prudential and hopes to start his life anew," Druffner's lawyer Michael Collora said in an interview.

Federal prosecutors said Druffner was one of several brokers and managers at Prudential who engaged in market timing, the rapid-fire trading of mutual fund shares to exploit pricing inefficiencies.

<snip>

In a statement, Sullivan said Druffner pocketed $1 million in net commissions and that he now faces up to 20 years in prison on each of the eight counts as well as substantial fines.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. US fiscal fix needed for global adjustment--study

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-19T213718Z_01_N19314892_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-DOLLAR.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - A balanced U.S. budget, a 20 percent decline in the dollar and a sharp rise in Asian currencies are needed to cut the U.S. current account gap to a sustainable level, a study released on Monday said.

The study by William Cline of the Institute for International Economics said that without strong measures, the U.S. current account deficit would soar to $1.2 trillion by 2010, a hefty 7-1/2 percent of GDP, and push total U.S. indebtedness up to $8 trillion, half of the economy.

Cline said a further widening in the U.S. current account gap would not necessarily lead to a "hard landing" for the U.S. economy -- in which the dollar crashes, interest rates soar and a recession ensues -- but said the risk of such an outcome increases the longer a correction is put off.

"By delaying the adjustment, we make the inevitable correction much more wrenching," he told a luncheon co-sponsored by IIE and the Center for Global Development.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. S&P says to cut Neiman Marcus to junk after LBO

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-19T202038Z_01_WNA8435_RTRIDST_0_RETAIL-NEIMANMARCUS-S-P-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Monday said it plans to cut Neiman Marcus Group Inc. (NMGa.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to junk status once its $5.1 billion leveraged buyout is completed.

S&P said it will cut Neiman Marcus' corporate credit rating to "B-plus," which is five steps below the current investment-grade rating of "BBB."

Downgrades usually raise a company's borrowing costs, particularly cuts to junk.

...short blurb...

[UpInArms]

11. US homes not overvalued, bubble unlikely-economists

(and we should trust these "economists" that are always "surprised"?)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-19T213754Z_01_N19187250_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-HOUSING-BUBBLE.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Fears of a U.S. housing bubble are probably unfounded because the costs of homeownership are average by historical standards, a study by economists from two universities and the Federal Reserve system released on Monday says.

"We can say that most housing markets did not look much more expensive in 2004 than they looked over the last 10 years, and in most major cities our valuation measures were nowhere near their historic highs," said the authors of the study, "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions."

The study was conducted by Charles Himmelberg, a senior economist at the New York Fed and two professors of real estate, Christopher Mayer of Columbia University, and Todd Sinai of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.

The authors said low mortgage interest rates and unwavering demand for housing in established cities that will continue to attract new residents ensure that home values are likely to keep climbing over the long term.

"In high-appreciation markets like San Francisco, Boston and New York, current prices are not cheap, but our calculations do not reveal large price increases in excess of fundamentals," the authors said.

During the late 1980s -- a period followed by house price declines in many markets -- many cities were, in fact, overvalued, they said. Currently, only a few of the 46 markets they studied, such as Miami and Ft. Lauderdale, Florida, and Portland, Oregon, had valuations approaching those of the 1980s, the authors said.

...more...

[ramapo]

15. No bubble? How about just unaffordable?

These guys are delusional. Maybe if you average the price of homes across the country you can report there is no bubble.

If home prices aren't out of whack then how come many mortgages written are special deals? No principle and below-market rates (already absurdly low) are used to somehow get people to qualify for jumbo mortgages. Unless you have a few hundred thousand sitting around, every mortgage written in much of the Northeast must be a jumbo. A handyman special can go for $500K+. Million dollar knockdowns. Crazy stuff. I've been in my house 22 years. I know it has appreciated far more than my salary has increased.

[Zynx]

22. This looks eerily familiar to 1999.

I remember when analysts were bending over backwards to make those stock market valuations make sense. The fact of the matter is that national median real estate prices are advancing at 2.5x their normal rate and in many markets 3,4, and even 5x their normal rate. The fact is that real estate fundementals are not really any stronger now than they were seven years ago in terms of income growth and only slight demographic improvement vs. that time.

[UpInArms]

63. S&P sees gradual unwinding of housing bubble

(string "unwinds" - bubbles "pop")

So are the "economists" stringing us along?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B62236091%2D2F59%2D4B3C%2DB5F9%2D47EFACB0FA81%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- The popping of the red-hot U.S. housing market will likely play out as a steady deceleration of prices followed by stabilization, rather than a dramatic national downturn, Standard & Poor's said Monday.

"The bubble should end with a fizzle, not a bang," said S&P Chief Economist David Wyss in a conference call Monday, adding that it's difficult to nail down exactly when the market might weaken, and what the implications might be for the overall economy.

Still, Wyss indicated that rocketing home prices in several parts of the country are unsustainable and cannot go on forever. Looming interest-rate increases are another potential problem that may affect two sectors linked to the housing market: home-builder stocks and real-estate investment trusts.

Credit rating and investment-research agency S&P unveiled multiple reports on the global housing market Monday.

Currently, the average U.S. home price is roughly 3.1 times the average household income, the highest in history and up from an average of 2.6 times since 1960, according to S&P. Driven by low mortgage rates and looser lending standards, home-ownership levels of 69.4% are also at an all-time high.

Yet most of the price appreciation is concentrated in sizzling markets in California, Florida and the Northeast. For example, on both coasts, housing costs have risen at least 30% above the normal home price-to-income ratio, S&P calculated.

...more...

Shall we all sing Meanspin's themesong? "I'm forever blowing bubbles?" or is it "Tiny Bubbles" in the air?

[UpInArms]

12. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Sep 20	8:30 AM	Building Permits		Aug	-	2100K	2129K	2167K	-	
Sep 20	8:30 AM	Housing Starts			Aug	-	2050K	2025K	2042K	-	
Sep 20	2:15 PM	FOMC policy announcement	-	-	-	-	-	-

[UpInArms]

20. U.S. Aug. housing starts sink 1.3% to 2.01 million

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={DC6F7BCF-4558-4BCF-825E-0EEE00777E76}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - New construction on U.S. houses units slipped 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.009 million units in August, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The decline was slightly larger than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were calling for a decline to 2.03 million from 2.042 million in July. New construction of single-family homes rose 0.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.709 million. Meanwhile, 2.124 million building permits were authorized by local government jurisdictions, down 2.2% from July's 2.171 million pace.

8:30am 09/20/05 'MINIMAL' IMPACT FROM KATRINA ON AUG. HOUSING DATA

8:30am 09/20/05 U.S. AUG. BUILDING PERMITS FALL 2.2% TO 2.124 MILLION RATE

8:30am 09/20/05 U.S. AUG. HOUSING STARTS FALL 1.3% TO 2.009 MILLION RATE

[UpInArms]

104. Fed raises interest rates quarter point to 3.75%

2:17pm 09/20/05 FOMC: HIGHER ENERGY COSTS MAY ADD TO INFLATION THREAT

2:17pm 09/20/05 FOMC: KATRINA MAY ADD TO ENERGY PRICE VOLATILITY

2:17pm 09/20/05 FOMC VOTE NOT UNANIMOUS, GOV. OLSON DISSENTS

2:17pm 09/20/05 FOMC SAYS RATES STILL 'ACCOMMODATIVE'

2:17pm 09/20/05 FOMC: RATES CAN STILL BE RAISED AT 'MEASURED' PACE

2:17pm 09/20/05 FOMC: KATRINA WILL CAUSE SHORT-TERM, NOT LONG-TERM DISTRESS

2:17pm 09/20/05 FOMC HIKES RATES BY QUARTER POINT TO 3.75%

[UpInArms]

105. FED HIKES INTEREST RATES A QUARTER POINT, NOTES INFLATION CONCERN

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={749F0953-A49A-469E-B38F-3263587813F0}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Open Market Committee increased its target for overnight interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 3.75% Tuesday. This is the eleventh straight meeting with a quarter-point rate hike. The Fed funds rate is now at its highest level since June 2001. The increase in the federal funds rate was expected by traders and economists on Wall Street. There was one dissent. Fed governor Mark Olson preferred that the Fed stand pat. The committee once again concluded its monetary policy stance remains accommodative and that this "accommodation" can be removed "at a pace that is likely to be measured."

[UpInArms]

13. Katrina, gasoline cited in sharp retail sales slowdown

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38615.3262817245-842929691&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Fallout from Hurricane Katrina contributed to a sharp drop in U.S. retail chains' same-store sales for the week ended Sept. 17, the International Council of Shopping Centers said. The 2.1% decrease compared to the prior week was the largest seen since Dec. 6, 2003, when same-store sales as tracked by the industry group fell 2.5%. On a year-over-year basis, last week's overall sales also slowed dramatically, to growth at a 2.4% pace from 3.5% in the prior week. ICSC also cited high gasoline prices and consumers' concerns about the future of the U.S. economy as factors behind the sales slowdown. "As consumer confidence weakens, we have scaled back our monthly estimate for September's retail chain store sales to 3.0% on a year-over-year basis," said Mike Niemira, ICSC chief economist.

[UpInArms]

17. US chain store sales drop on economic worries

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-09-20T121614Z_01_N20361047_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-RETAIL-ICSC-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store retail sales dropped significantly in the latest week, as a result of high gasoline prices, ripple effects of Hurricane Katrina and increased consumer concern about the future of the economy, a retail report said on Tuesday.

Sales dropped 2.1 percent in the week ended Sept. 17, compared with 0.2 percent decline the previous week - the largest weekly dip since December 6, 2003 when the index fell 2.5 percent, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in a joint report.

This tumble in the index follows last weeks fall in the U.S. consumers' confidence as the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index fell to -12.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. AAA daily avg retail gasoline price up 50.5% vs yr ago

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38615.3057108449-842927021&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- AAA said Tuesday that the average U.S. retail price of regular unleaded gasoline stood at $2.788 a gallon, down from $2.805 a gallon on Monday but up 50.5% from a year ago. The automobile association said the average price of diesel fuel stood at $2.831 a gallon, down slightly from $2.846 a gallon on Monday. The average price of diesel fuel was $1.921 a gallon a year ago. October unleaded gasoline futures were last down 3.8% at $1.9650 a gallon, after gaining 11.2% on Monday on fears that Tropical Storm Rita may enter the Gulf of Mexico, already ravaged by Hurricane Katrina.

[UpInArms]

16. Little (GOP)piggies get pen

http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/348085p-297038c.html

Dennis Kozlowski and Mark Swartz treated Tyco International like their personal piggy bank - and yesterday, they got sent to the pen.

The former highflying execs were led out of a Manhattan courtroom in gray suits and handcuffs after being sentenced to 8-1/3 to 25 years in state prison for looting $600 million from Tyco in one of the biggest and most infamous ripoffs in U.S. corporate history.

Now Kozlowski, the corporate chieftain who was paid $267 million from 1999 to 2001 alone, will be earning $1.05 a day in prison for mundane tasks like making license plates.

<snip>

"The heart of this case is basic larceny," said Obus, who said it was hard to understand "how the defendants, with all they had going for them, managed to get themselves in this disastrous position."

Kozlowski asked for mercy as lawyers for the duo argued the ex-Tyco titans should get less than a year behind bars.

...more...

Here is the list of Kozlowski's political contributions:

http://www.newsmeat.com/ceo_political_donations/Dennis_Kozlowski.php

L Dennis Kozlowski , 58 (bio)
former Tyco chairman, ceo; convicted of corporate fraud
$37,200 Republican
$1,000 Democrat
$500 special interest
total: $38,700

and here's an interesting link:

http://transnationale.org/fiches/483439640.htm

It shows where all of Tyco's holdings are located and what they do.

[UpInArms]

18. Laff for the Day: US Treasury's Snow pledges fiscal responsibility

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T121238Z_01_WAT003944_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW-FISCAL-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Tuesday the United States would rebuild the Gulf Coast region devastated by Hurricane Katrina but would do so in a "fiscally responsible" way.

"Will the relief and reconstruction be costly? Of course it will," he said in remarks prepared for delivery to a financial literacy commission. "But I want to assure you that this administration is not, and will not, stray from our course of federal deficit reduction."

These jokers will say anything - using all buzzword hype - to obsfuscate and confuse their absolute lack of conviction (and I do wish there would be convictions).

[AnneD]

54. Sweet Jesus on a popsicle stick

:spray: :rofl: :rofl: Give us a warning...I have coffee everywhere. Oh surely he means physical responsibility...like he's going to be working out with Dubya on the mountain bikes..

[Doctor_J]

60. When did they start the "course of deficit reduction"?

Did I miss something?

[AnneD]

68. That's what you get for not

reading your GOP talking points (# 37).

[UpInArms]

79. Katrina may sideline some White House goals - Snow (sadly concedes)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T162426Z_01_N20386659_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW-KATRINA-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - The recovery from Hurricane Katrina will temporarily sideline some parts of U.S. President George W. Bush's domestic agenda, including efforts to make the administration's tax cuts permanent, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Tuesday.

"It's taken over the national agenda and I think it will for a while," Snow said of Katrina. "I think it will push to the back burner some issues that otherwise would have been on the agenda now -- the estate tax, tax (cut) permanency, GSEs and other things." Snow told the National Association of Federal Credit Unions.

He called Katrina "the most far-reaching and widespread devastation America has ever faced," and said the short-term economic consequences will be "devastating" for the Gulf Coast region.

But for the United States as a whole, Katrina will place "temporary" pressure on economic growth and job creation, Snow said.

"From the point of view of the national economy, while we'll suffer a temporary setback in (gross domestic product) growth rates and in job creation, and while we'll probably see the unemployment rate tick up and the growth rate tick down, I think it's temporary because there will be a major rebuilding effort here," he said.

...more...

Then he really becomes delusional about the "broken window" theory :eyes:

[54anickel]

88. Soon we'll be practicing Mugabenomics

This is from back in July, pre-Katrina. I remember posting it when it first came out, but it's got this eerie feel to it when you read it now.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/englund/englund27.html

We have all heard it before. There is nothing like a hurricane, earthquake, tsunami, or war to help spur economic growth. Politicians, reporters, Wall Street analysts, and economists (save for the Austrians) marvel at how natural and manmade disasters bring people together to rebuild homes, office buildings, factories, and infrastructure. Demand is kick-started for lumber, concrete, masonry block, electrical wiring, windows, asphalt, and the list goes on. Contractors, subcontractors, supply houses, and other businesses increase demand for labor; hence employment is stimulated as well. Heck, look how Japan and Germany emerged as economic powerhouses after World War II. By gosh, war, natural disasters, and general destruction do have a silver lining – it’s called economic stimulation. Of course, this is all bunk and amounts to nothing more than the broken-window fallacy. As Henry Hazlitt conveys in his masterful book Economics in One Lesson: "…the broken-window fallacy, under a hundred disguises, is the most persistent in the history of economics." And persist it does.

In Zimbabwe, this fallacy has taken on a novel disguise. Zimbabwe’s president, Robert Mugabe, has ordered the destruction of thousands of homes for the sake of cracking down on crime and spurring Zimbabwe’s economic regeneration. To economists, politicians, and Wall-Street types, President Mugabe must look like a genius – bring on the Nobel Prize for economics. In his prize lecture, Robert Mugabe can simply restate what he has already told his people: "We are constructing brand new houses, mending those which require to be mended, where it is necessary to destroy some. But the thrust is a reconstruction one, a positive thrust to rebuild things…" Additionally, there "…will be joy on the part of those who did not have homes, joy on the part of those who had homes which could not accommodate fully their families. Let’s bring about that joy and we shall erase this image of a Zimbabwe that is in ruins." Indeed, let us all embrace the joy of government-induced domestic destruction so that all may prosper. At this point, Nobel committee members leap to their feet and give Nobel laureate Robert Mugabe a standing ovation – as Paul Krugman watches with envy. The sheer genius of turning government forces against its own citizens, to destroy thousands of homes and leaving over 300,000 homeless surely will create the aggregate demand necessary – for housing, furniture, appliances, etc. – to put Zimbabwe back on the road to prosperity. Mugabenomics is legitimized by the Swedes.

So what if America’s housing bubble bursts, due to rising interest rates, and the economy starts slipping into an inflationary depression? Americans with interest-only mortgages, adjustable rate mortgages, and reverse amortization mortgages will be clamoring for relief. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will teeter on the precipice of insolvency. The banking system will find itself in a mortgage-default crisis which will make the S&L debacle look tame by comparison. Alan Greenspan will be tempted to flood the banking system with liquidity (in order to bring down short-term interest rates) but this may add fuel to the fire (i.e. driving up inflation) thus causing mortgage rates to rise even more rapidly. All the while, construction companies, supply houses, realtors, mortgage brokers, bankers, real estate developers, equipment dealers, etc. are all laying off employees…as it is a matter of business survival. Since letting the depression run its course and going back to the gold standard are not options any modern central banker or president will ever consider, perhaps the answer is Mugabenomics – Paul Krugman is writing scathing editorials imploring President Bush and Alan Greenspan to let the "productive destruction" begin immediately.

After consulting with Nobel laureate Robert Mugabe, President Bush declares a "War on Economic Depression." While addressing the nation, with Alan Greenspan and Donald Rumsfeld at his side, President Bush carefully lays out his plan to revitalize America’s economy. He has ordered the evacuation of San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa, Miami, New York, and Boston – much like a hurricane evacuation. Each city, consequently, will be carpet bombed until it is as flat as a pancake. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld chimes in and describes how every B-52, B-1, and B-2 bomber is at the President’s disposal. In turn, Alan Greenspan describes how the "creative destruction" of the free market will be supplanted by the "productive destruction" of government. President Bush takes another turn at the microphone and declares that the newly created Department of Homeland Reconstruction will oversee every aspect of the rebuilding effort – the head of this new department will be a cabinet-level appointee. George W. Bush closes his stirring speech with overpowering certainty that "…just as World War II pulled America out of the Great Depression, so will my newly declared War on Economic Depression!" Robert Mugabe, reportedly, was moved to tears by this speech.

more...

[RawMaterials]

90. Scary stuff

I hope that this neo-con Paradise never comes true.

[54anickel]

94. Bush committed to tax cuts: White House

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20050920/bs_nm/katrina_economy_bush_dc_1

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House on Tuesday played down suggestions from U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow that an effort to make President George W. Bush's tax cuts permanent would be sidelined by the Hurricane Katrina recovery.

"He's saying what we all are -- the Katrina recovery is the top priority, but we remain committed to President Bush's economic program, which has helped create millions of jobs," White House spokesman Trent Duffy said.

That's it - just enough to counter Snow's "off message" line.

[UpInArms]

92. Delusional: White House says Bush still committed to tax cuts

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T171008Z_01_WAT003948_RTRIDST_0_KATRINA-ECONOMY-BUSH-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - The White House on Tuesday played down suggestions from U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow that an effort to make President George W. Bush's tax cuts permanent would be sidelined by the Hurricane Katrina recovery.

"He's saying what we all are -- the Katrina recovery is the top priority, but we remain committed to President Bush's economic program, which has helped create millions of jobs," White House spokesman Trent Duffy said.

[54anickel]

96. Twins!

:toast:

[UpInArms]

98. HeHe - to my "twin"!

:toast:

[UpInArms]

19. (Entergy) New Orleans-based unit could face bankruptcy

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B73ED55FF%2D4226%2D48DF%2DAB2B%2D5ED325F07BB6%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Electric power distributor Entergy Corp., reeling from losses caused by Hurricane Katrina, said Tuesday that its New Orleans-based unit may have to file for bankruptcy.

Entergy (ETR: news, chart, profile) also said it sees between $750 million and $1.1 billion in restoration costs, including between $325 million and $475 million in New Orleans.



By Monday night, Entergy said it had restored power to approximately 874,000 of the 1.1 million customers who lost power at the peak of the storm.

Some customers in the most devastated areas of greater New Orleans and surrounding parishes, estimated to be in the range of 150,000 to 170,000, are unable to accept electric and gas service and therefore cannot be restored at the current time, it said.

Revenue at Entergy Louisiana Inc. and Entergy New Orleans Inc. is expected to be lower. Annual revenue for those combined units averaged between $210 million and $250 million.

Entergy said it's planning a broad range of initiatives to recover storm costs.

...more...

Hmmmmm.... I wonder what that "broad range of initiatives" will be :eyes:

[UpInArms]

23. the "broad range of initiatives"

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T124238Z_01_N20357423_RTRIDST_0_KATRINA-ENTERGY-UPDATE-2.XML

excerpt:

The company said it plans to pursue several methods to recover damages and costs caused by the hurricane, including assistance under federal legislation, reimbursement of some costs covered by insurance, and rate increases.

[UpInArms]

21. U.S. CEO confidence dips in September - survey

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T123048Z_01_N19308300_RTRIDST_0_CORPORATE-CONFIDENCE-CEO.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Rattled by the effects of Hurricane Katrina, U.S. chief executives are slightly less optimistic, but still confident, about hiring prospects and the strength of the U.S. stock market, according to a survey released on Tuesday.

Chief Executive Magazine, which surveyed 594 top executives, said its CEO confidence index slid 6.5 points in September to 164.6, from a year-high in August.

Executives said the recent surge in fuel prices as a result of Hurricane Katrina hurt their economic outlook, according to the survey.

CEOs said they were still optimistic about expanding their work forces but some complained about a lack of qualified job seekers.

The survey also showed that CEOs think the U.S. stock market will continue to strengthen over the next few years, and most said they preferred to invest in stocks than real estate or bonds.

...more...

[converted_democrat]

25. Morning UIA!! Wanna smile? Read this from WSJ.......

Good morning! Wanna smile??http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/bminiter/?id=110007283


Read down to the part where they suggest that since the pukes are such big spenders that perhaps we should replace them with Dem's. It slams both sides, but it's a good read.

[UpInArms]

28. Hiya c_d!

Glad to see you this a.m. :hi:

I like this paragraph:

This isn't all Katrina's fault. Republicans have been kidding themselves for years that they are still the stewards of fiscal conservatism and limited government. The Medicare prescription drug plan is just one example. Run down the list of the some 80 federal entitlements--including Medicare, Medicaid, farm subsidies, Pell Grants and so much more--and it becomes clear that little has been done to take these massive programs off of spending autopilot. Welfare reform and Freedom to Farm in the 1990s were nice, but what has the GOP done lately? In many cases Republicans have ramped up spending and then bragged about it.

The GOPpiggies are anything but fiscally prudent.

[54anickel]

31. GACK!!! Condi for Prez?!?!!!...n/t

[ozymandius]

44. "She has the good fortune of being from the wrong place at what's now the"

She has the good fortune of being from the wrong place at what's now the right time--Alabama, a state hit hard by the hurricane."

And while Alabama was getting slammed with a hurricane, she was shopping for shoes.

[RawMaterials]

45. and Drinking her Bottled water n/m

[UpInArms]

47. Not just any shoes - but $1,000 pair Ferragamo shoes

http://www.phxnews.com/fullstory.php?article=24885

excerpt:

From Gawker, moments ago: According to Drudge, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has recently enjoyed a little Broadway entertainment. And Page Six reports that she’s also working on her backhand with Monica Seles. So the Gulf Coast has gone all Mad Max, women are being raped in the Superdome, and Rice is enjoying a brief vacation in New York. We wish we were surprised.

What does surprise us: Just moments ago at the Ferragamo on 5th Avenue, Condoleeza Rice was seen spending several thousands of dollars on some nice, new shoes (we’ve confirmed this, so her new heels will surely get coverage from the WaPo’s Robin Givhan). A fellow shopper, unable to fathom the absurdity of Rice’s timing, went up to the Secretary and reportedly shouted, “How dare you shop for shoes while thousands are dying and homeless!” Never one to have her fashion choices questioned, Rice had security PHYSICALLY REMOVE the woman.

<snip>

This is more than just a cheap shot at Condi. What in the blazes is this woman doing at a Broadway show in the middle of a national emergency? This is akin to going to a Broadway show in the middle of September 11. Don´t we expect the Secretary of State to work past 5pm on a day an entire American city is being wiped off the face of the planet? And shouldn´t she be doing something else today than shopping at filthy rich stores on 5th Avenue? Could she be - oh, I don´t know - working with foreign leaders, like the Mexicans, to see what immediate assistance they can offer to the neighbor?

New Orleans is ceasing to exist. What in God´s name is Bush doing letting his secretary of state go on vacation in the middle of this?

Message: "I don´t care."

...more...

[converted_democrat]

51. She wasn't shopping, she was stressed out.......

It was retail therapy. You really shouldn't talk about our future president like that. You keep it up, and I may have to question your patriotism. Why do you hate America? It's for our freedoms, isn't it?
:sarcasm:

[RawMaterials]

33. what a headline

Republicans have abandoned small government. Why shouldn't voters abandon them?

just like many other times in history the Dem's are going to have to fix/ clean up everything the other party destroyed/ruined/bankrupted.

[converted_democrat]

50. Yea, that struck me too!! I was just surprised to see it in the WSJ. n/t

[Roland99]

37. Miniter...isn't that the same last name as that American commando who...

was going after bin Laden in Afghanistan and got himself into trouble?

[UpInArms]

40. I think you're referring to Jack Idema

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0826/dailyUpdate.html?s=ent2

An unnamed Pentagon official tells the BBC that the US Department of Defense has admitted having contact with former US special forces soldier Jonathan "Jack" Idema.

Mr. Idema was arrested in July and is currently on trial with two other American co-defendants for torture, kidnapping, and running a private jail in Kabul, Afghanistan. They face up to 20 years in jail if found guilty.

Idema has repeatedly asserted that he was working for the US military, a charge the US has denied.

<snip>

As The Associated Press points out, the US military has acknowledged it accepted one detainee from Idema, but released the man after two months after it realized he was not the senior Taliban fighter Idema had claimed.

"Many observers have been troubled by the lack of clarity surrounding the military's acceptance of the suspect, and the fact it took two months for them to figure out the man was innocent and release him," AP reports.

...more...

[Roland99]

52. Ok...hmm...where do I know the name Miniter from then

:shrug:

[converted_democrat]

91. Could this be it???

He was an "investigative journalist" (using the term loosely) who claimed it's all Clinton's fault about Bin Laden. He even wrote a book about it.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0895260743/ref%3Dnosim/nationalreviewon/104-2883195-3714330

edit- to make clearer

[Roland99]

114. That's it! Wonder if this guy is related?

[converted_democrat]

132. They both write for the opinionjournal.............

They spew almost the exactly the same crap. I would bet they lived in the same home, because of the similar writing patterns. My bet father and son, or brothers.(my speculation) I'll see what I can do to confirm it. The link I am providing has either an issue or an archive of the opinion journal that contains both of their writings. I'm diving into the net now to see if I can back up my relation theory.
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_kmopi/is_200404

[converted_democrat]

133. Confirmation, they are brothers!

http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/bminiter/?id=110001791

snip-
In The New Republic, Richard Miniter (full disclosure: he's my brother) speculates that the CIA might have been behind the leaked memo that briefly put the president in the hot seat and that helped lead to this small reorganization of the FBI's war efforts. The agency had both the motive--to deflect attention away from its own mistakes--and the means to make the memo public.

[UpInArms]

135. Way to Go, c_d!

:applause:

Uncovering the ties that bind the spinners!

[Roland99]

136. Well now...isn't that something?!

[WhiteTara]

82. The article sees Condasleeze as in the right place

to be a state contender in Alabama politics?

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice may actually mark the storm as the turning point that gives her a shot at elective office. She has the good fortune of being from the wrong place at what's now the right time--Alabama, a state hit hard by the hurricane. Staring down critics who claim the president didn't rush to help Katrina victims because they were predominately poor and black has raised her national profile and fleshed out some of her views on race, poverty and education.

Ms. Rice has gone domestic and surely is now on the short list to be any credible Republican presidential candidate's running mate. But why not Condi for president? She hasn't held elective office before, but if the nation comes under attack again, it's clear she has the backbone to do something about it. And that's about the only argument Republicans will have for continuing to be trusted with the reins of power after they jettison the rest of their agenda and adopt programs reminiscent of the New Deal and Great Society. Bankruptcy reform and a failed effort at Social Security reform just aren't enough to take to the voters, especially once the two Supreme Court vacancies are filled.

Well, that depresses me. I see prison in her future!

[converted_democrat]

84. Condi will never be pres, so I don't worry about that........

I was pointing out the headline to my friend, that's all. It was nice to see a couple slams on the pukes in this paper, it does not happen often.

[WhiteTara]

85. Oh, I didn't think she would be prez

but maybe governor or senator from Alabama. Yikes I hate the thought!

[ozymandius]

26. pre-open blather (ready to drink the Fed Kool-Aid)

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Cash market remains poised for a higher open as futures trading hold comfortably above fair value... While the session's earnings calendar is a relatively quiet one, a pair of pre-market reporters - Goldman Sachs (GS) and Circuit City (CC) - have handily beaten analysts' expectations, adding to an already upbeat attitude fueled by a pullback in oil prices following yesterday's dismal day of declines...
Goldman shares have surged 1.9% after the broker delivered record Q3 profits $0.90 ahead of forecasts while Circuit City shares have soared 10.9% early on following strong Q2 earnings and heightened FY06 guidance...

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. Aug. housing starts fell 1.3% to 2009K units, below expectations of 2025K, but still exceed 2.0 mln for a fifth consecutive month, while Aug. building permits declined 2.2% to 2124K units (consensus 2129K)... The stock market's immediate response was a muted one, with the stage still set for a higher open as futures trading holds steady... The Treasury market has similarly stood still, braced for the 2:15 FOMC announcement, as the benchmark 10-year note (-03/32) currently yields 4.26%

[UpInArms]

36. 9:36 EST Kool-Aid Sippers abound in LaLa Land

Dow 10,582.79 +25.16 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,153.03 +7.77 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,233.86 +2.84 (+0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.266 +0.19 (+0.45%)

NYSE Volume 85,032,000
Nasdaq Volume 94,458,000

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures indications are off their best levels but continue to suggest the major indices will rebound from yesterday's broad-based downturn. While a 1.7% pullback in oil prices, amid reports that Tropical Storm Rita may now miss the refinery-rich Houston area, and strong earnings reports from GS and CC, have sparked a relief rally in stocks, all eyes will remain on Rita's status and whether or not the wording in this afternoon's policy statement will suggest an end to the Fed's current round of tightening.

[UpInArms]

35. Treasurys slip ahead of Fed result

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B77C443AE%2D54DC%2D46A4%2DA920%2DDE4E7F1AA939%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices drifted lower ahead of what's widely expected to be the Federal Reserve's 11th straight interest-rate increase when the central bank meets Tuesday.

Less certain is how the Fed might prepare markets for what's to come.

Fixed-income analysts at Ried Thunberg see "little doubt" that the central bank will take its target lending rate from 3.50% to 3.75%. Short-term interest-rate futures contracts show that traders have put 94% odds on a quarter-point move later Tuesday.

Such a move would be considered a strike against inflation, which erodes the value of fixed-income investments. In fact, bond losses have stabilized after a pounding last week, helped by some expectations that with its aggressiveness in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the Fed is a step ahead of inflation.

...more...

[UpInArms]

41. US Treasuries off as oil, Fed trump housing starts

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T134356Z_01_N20324162_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-REPEAT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices slipped on Tuesday in tandem with oil prices which leaped as a new hurricane entered the Gulf of Mexico, through trading was subdued hours before the Federal Reserve would announce its interest rate policy decision.

Traders said they looked past Tuesday morning's August U.S. housing starts data, which largely preceded Hurricane Katrina. The government reported a 1.3 percent decline in August to a 2.009 million unit annual rate, below economists' forecast of a 2.025 million pace.

Price movements in the bond market were muted, as traders, largely expecting the Fed to raise its key federal funds rate by one-quarter of a percentage point to 3.75 percent, braced for how the central bank describes the post-Katrina economic situation in the statement that accompaies its rate decision.

Traders said oil was the top factor pulling prices down, as the market continued to watch Hurricane Rita closely. Bond prices have moved up -- and down -- with oil in the the last several weeks, reflecting the bond market's ebbing and flowing concerns that high energy prices will hurt economic growth. Rita is forecast to head for Texas and possibly threaten oil infrastructure in the western Gulf of Mexico.

...more...

[UpInArms]

64. Treasuries investors more cautious before Fed-poll

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T133911Z_01_N20365969_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-TREASURIES-JPMORGAN.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Treasuries investors turned more cautious prior to Tuesday's meeting of Federal Reserve policymakers, who are widely expected to raise U.S. short-term interest rates, a survey released on Tuesday shows.

The number of investors polled on Monday who said they were neutral on Treasuries jumped to 54 percent from 34 percent a week earlier, J.P. Morgan Securities said.

The latest reading on neutral investors, meaning that they hold neither more nor fewer Treasuries than their portfolio benchmarks, climbed to its highest since July 2004.

Even the bank's active clients, who include market makers and hedge funds, turned more defensive than a week ago. Among these clients, 11 percent said they were neutral on Treasuries, up from 7 percent last week, J.P. Morgan said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

112. US rate futures down as Fed hikes, frets on prices

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T182920Z_01_CHB000088_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FEDFUNDS-FOMC-URGENT.XML

CHICAGO, Sept 20 (Reuters) - U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell heavily on Tuesday after the Federal Open Market Committee raised benchmark interest rates and pointed to more rate hikes ahead in a hawkishly-construed statement.

The Fed, the U.S. central bank, said higher energy prices and other rising costs had the potential to add to inflation pressures, a comment that made dealers more confident that the Fed will continue tightening monetary policy.

The projected year-end federal funds rate rose to 4.065 percent from 4.015 percent just before the FOMC's release as dealers started to price in two more rate hikes for 2005 rather than just one.

[UpInArms]

122. Bond market starts to grapple with Katrina funding

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-09-20T184018Z_01_MOR067132_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-MARKETS-BONDS-KATRINA-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bond investors are wondering how the government will borrow money to pay for rebuilding after Hurricane Katrina and anticipating what a substantial influx of debt would mean for the U.S. Treasuries market.

President George Bush made it clear in his televised address that he does not want to raise taxes to pay the bill. So bond traders, strategists and economists realize this means the bond market will have to raise the $150 billion to $200 billion estimated necessary to rebuild New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.

<snip>

"Why put the debt way out the curve if the spending is only going to last two or three years?" asked Gerald Zukowski, deputy chief economist at Nomura Securities International in New York. "That argues for keeping it in bills or somewhere else on the short end of the curve."

In a research note issued on Monday, Merrill Lynch researchers reached the same conclusion, arguing that the costs are one-time outlays and would therefore be more appropriately covered by shorter-dated debt. Merrill predicted a rise in debt issuance of bills and debt with maturities ranging up to five years.

But some, like Andrew Brenner, head of fixed income at Investec US, note that short-term yields are only slightly lower than long-term yields. That makes reliance on shorter-dated Treasury bills and notes short-sighted.

"Listen, we haven't even started rebuilding the World Trade Center towers, and that was four years ago. They're going to be just cleaning up New Orleans for the next year.

...more...

[54anickel]

38. Platform for dollar swaps unveiled

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f0d12b36-293b-11da-8a5e-00000e2511c8.html

Thomson TradeWeb has become the first multi-dealer platform to offer dollar-denominated interest rate swaps, weeks ahead of a similar offering by rival Bloomberg’s SwapTrader.

Interest rate swaps, which enable users to remove the interest rate risk from a transaction, make up the biggest segment of the global derivatives market.

The notional amount outstanding for interest rate derivatives stood at $184 trillion at the end of 2004, up 29 per cent from the previous year, according to data from the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.

The bespoke nature of many swaps has made it difficult to automate the trading process, but the vast and growing market has led to fierce competition in bringing at least a portion online.

Both TradeWeb and SwapTrader launched multi-dealer trading in euro-denominated swaps earlier this year. SwapTrader has single-dealer trading in dollar-denominated swaps.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Derivatives plan ticks to deadline

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e0d5bdbc-2942-11da-8a5e-00000e2511c8.html

Credit derivative dealers face a tough fortnight as they race to agree a plan of action to present to the Federal Reserve in order to resolve a mounting backlog of unconfirmed trades that has regulators concerned.

Leading dealers and regulators covering the US and Europe met last week at the invitation of the New York Federal Reserve. The meeting concluded that the bankers would draw up an action plan and a timetable to deal with the problems and to agree a series of measurements that may become a standard to enable regulators to keep track of the fast-growing industry.

“We’re going to get together starting next week and report back towards the end of this month, or early next,” said one person who was at the exclusive meeting.

If successful, the measures could be adopted in Europe and the US, offering an example of the sort of cross-border regulatory co-operation global banks and investors have long called for.

Credit derivatives are a relatively young market, but their use has grown rapidly in recent years and the back-office settlement processes have struggled to keep pace, leaving trades unconfirmed. Regulators fear that may lead to lengthy and awkward untanglings of who owns what. There are also difficulties for overseers attempting to know where the risks lie. Hedge funds and other fast-moving traders have complicated matters. They can agree a trade one day and “assign”, or sell, their interest to a third party the next, leaving the original counterparty a tangled trail before the deal can be settled. But the pace at which the issues could be dealt with would vary, risk-managers warned.

more...

[ozymandius]

46. 10am bounce

10:01
Dow 10,589.88 +32.25 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,154.62 +9.36 (+0.44%)
S&P 500 1,233.95 +2.93 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 42.54 +0.07 (+0.16%)
NYSE Volume 256,474,000
Nasdaq Volume 241,005,000

9:40AM: As futures trade had foreshadowed, the cash market opens higher amid traders' relief in crude oil's pullback to $66.63/bbl (-$0.76) from yesterday's largest one-day price jump (+$4.39/bbl) in 15 years... With Hurricane Rita, which was just upgraded from a Tropical Storm, on the market's mind and the latest FOMC policy announcement due out after lunch (2:15 ET), an air of caution may cap the early upside as sector gains remains modest at best in the early going...

[54anickel]

48. Narrow Interest Rate Gap Is Squeezing Retail Banks

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/20/business/20place.html

snip>

Investors are keeping a close eye on the yield curve because banks make a big chunk of their revenues and profits from borrowing money at low short-term rates and lending it to individuals and corporations at higher rates.

Analysts say more banks are likely to miss earnings estimates if the yield curve continues to flatten. In the last year - shortly after the Federal Reserve began raising short-term interest rates - the difference in yield between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes (a typical measure of the yield curve on Wall Street) has narrowed to 0.26 percentage points, from 1.68 percentage points.

snip>

Banks find themselves with little wiggle room, because they are under pressure to attract new customers by offering higher yields on deposits (or, in the case of J. P. Morgan Chase, free iPod Shuffles). But they are also struggling to charge higher rates for home mortgages or home equity loans in those intensely competitive markets.

As if that were not enough, another risk on the horizon for banks is the potential for a worsening of credit quality, which could further depress earnings next year, said Denis Laplante, an analyst at Keefe Bruyette & Woods. "When it comes to credit quality and provision for losses at the banks, if we're not at historic lows, we're certainly close to cycle lows," Mr. Laplante said. "It's likely credit costs are going to be going up next year."

more...

[54anickel]

55. The economy is booming, I tell you!

Airline bankruptcies are boon for law firms
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0920airlines20.html

Delta and Northwest have hired law firms to lead their bankruptcy cases. They've tapped legal consultants to handle corporate tax and immigration issues. And they've put on the payroll financial and aviation experts to advise them on government procurement matters.

It's the business of bankruptcy, and these days, with four major airlines in Chapter 11, it's big business.

The litany of firms that will provide professional services to Delta and Northwest as they wade through bankruptcy court will rack up fees of tens, perhaps hundreds of millions of dollars over the next few years. A partner at one of the firms helping Delta charges $795 an hour.

Unlike most creditors, however, those firms in general won't have to worry about getting their money, because they are given priority by the court.

"Is there a price that is too expensive for open-heart surgery, because that is what we've got here?" said New York bankruptcy lawyer William Rochelle. "We've got a terminally ill patient presented in the emergency room with life-threatening injuries."

more...


Goldman Third-Quarter Profit Rises 84 Percent to $1.6 Billion
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a5zhRz.FUpX8&refer=us

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the second-biggest securities firm by market value, said third- quarter earnings rose 84 percent to a record as the firm profited from oil trading and mergers advice.

Net income climbed $1.62 billion, or $3.25 a share, in the three months ended Aug. 26 from $879 million, or $1.74, a year earlier, the New York-based firm said in a statement. Analysts expected Goldman to earn $2.38 a share, according to a survey by Thomson Financial.

Goldman follows Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos., which both reported record results last week. Those firms, which rely more than Goldman on fixed-income trading, posted their biggest gains in investment banking and equities trading, which account for about 40 percent of Goldman's revenue. Goldman also has an oil trading business, unlike its smaller rivals.

``The most important thing that benefited Goldman was highly volatile oil prices and the mergers and acquisitions boom,'' said Kunal Shah, an analyst at London-based First Global (U.K.) Ltd, before the earnings were released. ``Everyone thought it's seasonally slow and investment banks don't make much of a profit, but this third quarter was really big.''

Goldman's profit gain compared with Lehman's 74 percent and Bear Stearns's 34 percent. Morgan Stanley, the largest securities firm, may post a 34 percent increase in third-quarter earnings tomorrow, analysts said.

more...


Boeing sees China buying 2,600 jets
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-20T065142Z_01_SCH024646_RTRUKOC_0_US-TRANSPORT-BOEING-CHINA.xml&archived=False

BEIJING (Reuters) - Aersopace giant Boeing Co. expects China will buy 2,600 commercial jet aircraft over the next two decades, underpinned by strong growth in domestic flights, company executives said on Tuesday.

That would quadruple China's fleet to more than 3,200 jets at an estimated cost of $213 billion at 2004 prices, Randy Baseler, Boeing's vice president of marketing for commercial aircraft, told reporters.

The Chicago-based company is betting that airlines, freed from regulations that encouraged the traditional hub-and-spoke system, are going to be buying smaller jets to provide direct flights between smaller cities.

It thinks China will buy nearly 1,700 narrowbody planes, such as its 737 models or the A320 family made by European rival Airbus SAS. Airbus is controlled by European Aeronautic Defense & Space Co. N.V., based in Germany and France.

more...


Who's making what in New York City

http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/19/pf/salaries/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - From a hedge-fund manager who pulled in more than a billion last year to the cabby making $37,000, anything goes in NYC.

Using corporate proxy statements, news reports, city payrolls, tax-return filings and educated guesses, "New York" magazine has published the salaries you always wondered about.

The categories included Real Estate, Business, Sports, Transportation, Personal Services, Art, Fashion, Books, Music, Broadway, Dance, Food, Police and Fire, Education, Health, Religion, Nonprofit, Government, Law, Television, Movies and Media.

According to the report, Judge Judy made more than the chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs last year.

And here are a few more tidbits that may interest you:

more...

Tokyo Land Prices Have First Gain in 15-Years (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aeDs9NqXHipw&refer=japan

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Land prices rose in central Tokyo for the first time since 1990 and spread to outlying districts of the city as Japan's economic recovery and demand from property trusts and funds helped boost values.

Commercial and residential real estate in the capital's 23 wards gained for the first time since 1990 in the 12 months ended July 1, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said in a report, supporting an Aug. 1 assessment by the National Tax Agency. Land zoned for commercial use rose 0.6 percent and residential areas were up 0.5 percent, while the decline in nationwide values slowed.

Tokyo acquisitions by domestic real estate investment funds and foreign investors that include Morgan Stanley and Lone Star Funds are boosting values in Tokyo's 23 wards, where land prices rose 0.9 percent in 2004, according to the National Tax Agency. The rise is supporting gains elsewhere in the capital and in other Japanese cities.

``The turnaround in real estate prices is broadening out from a few places in a few major cities to a more general stabilization,'' said Richard Jerram, chief economist for Japan at Macquarie Securities Ltd., before the report was released. ``The positive macroeconomic effect is becoming more significant.''

more...

[Doctor_J]

61. We've turned the corner!

[UpInArms]

70. Pumping the market: Goldman $7.1 bln buyback would be industry's largest-T

Goldman $7.1 bln buyback would be industry's largest-Thomson

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38615.4910690046-842955188&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs' announced 60 million share buyback, worth about $7.1 billion at today's share price, would rank as the largest ever in the securities brokerage/investment banking sector, Thomson Financial Senior Researcher Richard Peterson said Tuesday. Peterson said the previous largest buyback in the sector was a $4 billion buyback by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, announced in February 1998. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs' shares rose 1.5%, or $1.78, to $120.06 after the company announced the buyback and also posted record third quarter earnings.

[54anickel]

56. Worry about retiring now

http://www.freep.com/money/business/tompor20e_20050920.htm

President George W. Bush supports Pozen's strategy and included it as a part of his proposal for fixing Social Security.

Pozen, 59, spoke Monday at a luncheon meeting of the Detroit Economic Club at the Dearborn Hyatt. The turnout was modest and perhaps a sign of how dead the Social Security debate has become.

Pozen, chairman of MFS Investment Management, admits that Social Security isn't on Washington's front burner, given Hurricane Katrina and the confirmation hearings for U.S. Supreme Court nominee John Roberts.

I'll add my two cents and note that Bush had a hard time pushing his Social Security agenda before Katrina. It's not going to be any easier, given his credibility problems immediately after Katrina.

Congress had been expected to hold hearings on Social Security's financial problems this fall. But now Pozen doesn't expect them to begin until next year.

snip>

People who:

•Earn an average of $25,000 or less during their working years would not face any cuts in benefits. Pozen said this would cover 30% of workers.
:wow: 30% of US workers are at 25K or less? I had no idea the percentage was that high.... and that was the range for lot of the jobs when I was looking and saying "no thanks". Perhaps that percentage is going to get larger?

more...

[RawMaterials]

124. That 30% probably doesn't include

any immigrants working under the table.

[54anickel]

57. No slack left

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=46665

Energy prices gyrate, up goes the trend. Infrastructure rots, down go the levies and the responses are neither adequately fast nor appropriately full. Gulf Coast flood waters and GDP forecasts recede, up go the equity markets. This is the celebration of the positive, the hoped for, the best case scenario in an economy that has forgotten how to do anything else. Wishful thinking has replaced prudent assessment in situations with no systemic slack to call upon.

We are stretched tight, beyond tight. There are no savings, credit card required minimum monthly payments are doubling, from 2% to 4% of balance. Payment percentages are doubling as adjustable rate interest payments are, and will, continue to be on the rise. Median weekly incomes in the US did not rise in 2003 or 2004. Not to worry, we will borrow the difference, continue spending and cash out bubble gains in frothy real estate.

The slackless economy is defined by a total absence of reserve for the forecast rain. As climatologists and meteorologist forewarned authorities in Washington DC, Baton Rouge and beyond, so economic theory and history scream out to us. The message is simple, things that can not go on forever don’t. But we believe they do because we have to. Nothing else is so reassuring. There is no place for full spectrum risk consideration, no time for downside planning and no cushion to fall on.

The last two years have hosted a consistent demand driven increase in energy prices and profits. The response is to forecast falling prices and discuss supply constraints despite 1.3 million barrels per day added since 2004. Industry consolidation has removed redundancy in search of cost reduction and to avoided expensive and risky capacity expansion. Slack is gone from refining, pipelines, production and storage. Auto makers stayed reliant on huge, gas inefficient vehicles to retain profitability. In 2003 these vehicles passed the 50% threshold and now account for well over half of all vehicles on US roads. Light trucks, SUVs and minivans are financed with debt and slurp gas. One might see them as microcosms of the slackless economy. They were bought with borrowed money, cost a lot to own, are easy to roll-over, a poor investment and more dangerous than we like to think. These vehicles are piloted longer and longer distances to larger and larger homes packed with energy hungry appliances.

There is no slack in household budgets. Our public has a negative savings rate, a taste for luxury goods, mounting liabilities, stagnant earnings and rising global labor market competition. Personal spending rises- for years based more on debt growth than income growth. We have bought more than we could afford for so long that a work out would rattle the globe and plunge the domestic economy into a prolonged recession of historic proportion. According to data provided by the Board of Governors of The Federal Reserve System, total households assets rose 103% 1994-2004. Across the same years household liabilities rose 134%.

more...

[54anickel]

58. Neither compassionate, nor conservative

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

“Couple a multi-state disaster of Katrina's magnitude, (including some of the poorer and less well-governed states in the union), add on a dysfunctional federal bureaucracy that had deteriorated in recent years, and a chief executive whose motto seemed to be, until yesterday, the buck stops there, and we get a helluva mess."
– Richard Murray, Houston-based public policy expert quoted in the Washington Post

“The worst storm in our history proved perfect for exposing this president because in one big blast it illuminated all his failings: the rampant cronyism, the empty sloganeering of ‘compassionate conservatism,’ the lack of concern for the ‘underprivileged’ his mother condescended to at the Astrodome, the reckless lack of planning for all government operations except tax cuts, the use of spin and photo-ops to camouflage failure and to substitute for action.”
– Frank Rich, NY Times

Describing the President’s panicked political response to his falling poll numbers as “compassionate conservatism”, (as New York Times columnist David Brooks did last Sunday, “A Bushian Laboratory”, September 18, 2005), borders on the ludicrous. Mr Bush has now overseen the fastest increase in domestic spending of any president in recent history. Furthermore, he has never resolved the inherent contradiction between his so-called “compassionate” spending policy and his small-government tax policy (which was ostensibly designed to “kill the beast” of Big Government once and for all, according to the President’s conservative apologists). And his casual dismissal of the remnants of civilian authority in the Gulf basin – “It is now clear that a challenge on this scale requires greater federal authority and a broader role for the armed forces -- the institution of our government most capable of massive logistical operations on a moment's notice” – evokes something more along the lines of Mussolini-style fascism than any coherent, mainstream conservative, philosophy.

Hurricane Katrina is only the latest example of the President’s extraordinary fiscal largesse – this time, borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars under the guise of “clear away the legacy of inequality.” Sixty-two billion dollars has already been appropriated in the storm’s aftermath, but total spending on hurricane relief could hit $200bn before all is said and done. This for an area in which a substantial proportion of people are unlikely to return. Occurring so late in the fiscal year, the hurricane will have little effect on federal spending in 2005, when the deficit is forecast to come in around $330bn, but the 2006 deficit is looking likely to hit the $450bn mark. No wonder the gold price hit a fresh 17-year high last week.

Not even the most liberal social engineers would dare to have been as bold as the Bush administration. The President gives no accounting of how the money will be found. His governing philosophy appears to be: “It's going to cost whatever it's going to cost” in contrast to the vision of “focused and effective and energetic government”, David Brooks imputes to him. Mr Bush has left the oversight in the hands of his political operative, Karl Rove, suggesting that this a major PR exercise, rather than (per Brooks) “a positive use of government that is neither big government liberalism nor antigovernment libertarianism”. (As an aside, maybe Mr Rove should have been placed in charge of the initial rescue effort. Without a single mishap, the Bush “rescue team” delivered to central New Orleans its own generators, lights, the camouflage netting designed to conceal the surrounding devastation, and its own communications equipment; the city almost looked whole again. The Federal government, it appears, cannot run an evacuation and relief effort properly, but it does a magnificent job of televised stage-setting in a disaster area.)

more...

[54anickel]

59. Timing the Rebalancing Call (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050919-mon.html#anchor0

It never fails. Every presentation or speech I have made on global rebalancing over the past three and a half years always ends with the same question: When will these global adjustments ever occur? This, of course, is a polite way of re-phrasing the toughest critique of the rebalancing call: The history of the last couple of years is littered with false alarms over the coming US current account adjustment. Call it the “boy-cries-wolf syndrome.” The longer the world endures mounting imbalances without suffering any serious consequences, the more the financial-market consensus believes this disequilibrium is sustainable.

I can certainly understand the frustration. After all, in investor circles, being early is the same as being wrong. In my view, the outcome underscores one of macro’s greatest shortcomings -- the ability to identify the tensions of disequilibria but the failure to depict the conditions that lead to the restoration of a new equilibrium. Of course, there is always the possibility that I’ve got the framework wrong. That’s certainly the implication of the new paradigms of international finance that have sprung up in recent years to explain why the once-unsustainable is now sustainable. That’s precisely the inference that can be taken from the leading new theory -- the so-called Bretton Woods II regime that depicts a newly symbiotic relationship between the US and a China-centric Asia. But even if the new paradigms are classic top-of-market rationalizations, there are no guarantees on the timing aspect of the macro adjustment framework that I endorse. In my view, that’s largely a call on event-risk -- in this instance, predicting the exogenous shock that then triggers a loss of confidence in dollar-denominated assets and the long-awaited US current account adjustment.

That’s not to say that we macro practitioners should duck the issue. In the back of my mind, I always keep a running list of possible event risks, or shocks, that I believe would be capable of triggering the rebalancing of an unbalanced world. My risk assessment has long been skewed toward US-centric concerns -- consistent with my belief that just as the US accounts for a disproportionate share of the world’s imbalances, it could well be the greatest source for an unwinding of those imbalances. That underscores the asymmetric risks of global rebalancing -- driven by a US that accounts for 70% of all the current account deficits in the world, while at the same time the incidence of current account surpluses is more widely diffused in a much broader number of economies (see my 16 September dispatch, Asymmetrical Risks of Global Rebalancing).

My top candidates for event risk include the following: an outbreak of US protectionism, the bursting of the US housing bubble, a US inflation problem, the end of fiscal discipline, or a financial accident in the US. All of these potential events have one thing in common -- they would shake the confidence factor that underpins official and private investor appetite for dollar-denominated assets. A weaker dollar and sharply higher US real interest rates are the classic characteristics of a US current account adjustment, which remains central to the rebalancing endgame. In my view, the confidence factor has been the key reason these adjustments have not yet occurred.

more...

[54anickel]

62. Contrition is for Wimps

http://www.sandersresearch.com/Sanders/Newsmanager/ShowNewsGen.aspx?NewsID=1055

As gold prices punched through the $450 barrier last week, President Bush gave a speech expressing, as the Financial Times put it, “a rare act of contrition.” We read the speech, and contrition is hard to find. This was no Trumanesque “The buck stops here” oratory; it was rather a promise to rebuild New Orleans with other people’s money, saying that his people (not him, mind) had made mistakes and they would fix them.



This was quite fitting in a week which also saw the release of second quarter current account statistics for the US, and they were not a pretty sight. Q2 saw the annual rate of growth in the deficit hit nearly $750 billion, more than 6% of GDP. The deficit with Latin America alone for the quarter was over $32 billion. Coming along with the news that the US taxpayer is going to be called upon to underwrite the euphemistically labelled “cleanup” to the tune of more than $200 billion without a tax hike, this puts the rest of the world on notice that it is going to have to stump up the credit. Even the Financial Times, supporter of most things associated with the New World Order, is having a hard time coming to terms with this. The American public has no such problems. The University of Michigan’s widely followed consumer survey’s preliminary read for September plunged to lows not seen since the recession in the early 90s, and the results only confirm what we are seeing in survey after survey.



Former president Bill Clinton held a conference in New York modestly called the Clinton Global Initiative. Talk is what Clinton is good at, as he demonstrated in his first administration. He talked Bush senior’s NAFTA bill through Congress in one of the most breathtaking betrayals by a politician of the constituency that elected him in American history. In another fitting juxtaposition last week, Bush fils announced that illegal immigrants in the US could stay. Coming on the heels of his waiver of the minimum wage for those workers doing the rebuilding after Katrina, even the dimmest of the workforce cannot fail to get the message. No wonder support for the government is crashing.

This ought to give pause to the political and corporate leaders gathered in New York, but their response is a pretty uncompromising one. Rupert Murdoch and Tony Blair say it all. Blair, according to the publisher, told him that he was shocked, just shocked, by the BBC’s coverage of Katrina and its aftermath, and the “hatred” for America that it represented. Murdoch smugly opined that people are just jealous of America. We wonder what he has in mind. Are they jealous of the loss of America’s industrial sector? Are they jealous of the intrusion of the military and intelligence services into public and private life and the effective loss of the Bill of Rights? Are they jealous of the highly regressive tax structure and widening income and wealth gaps? Are they jealous of the government’s ability to “waive” the minimum wage?

more...

[TrogL]

65. Loonie Watch

http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Up-to-the-minute graph (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDY&v=i)

Current TSE:




2005-08-19 Friday, August 19 0.82291 USD
2005-08-22 Monday, August 22 0.830565 USD
2005-08-23 Tuesday, August 23 0.834655 USD
2005-08-24 Wednesday, August 24 0.8364 USD
2005-08-25 Thursday, August 25 0.841184 USD
2005-08-26 Friday, August 26 0.83689 USD
2005-08-29 Monday, August 29 0.835771 USD
2005-08-30 Tuesday, August 30 0.838997 USD
2005-08-31 Wednesday, August 31 0.840831 USD
2005-09-01 Thursday, September 1 0.843526 USD
2005-09-02 Friday, September 2 0.841751 USD
2005-09-05 Monday, September 5 0.841751 USD
2005-09-06 Tuesday, September 6 0.842673 USD
2005-09-07 Wednesday, September 7 0.843526 USD
2005-09-08 Thursday, September 8 0.845881 USD
2005-09-09 Friday, September 9 0.851136 USD
2005-09-12 Monday, September 12 0.843597 USD
2005-09-13 Tuesday, September 13 0.847458 USD
2005-09-14 Wednesday, September 14 0.845809 USD
2005-09-15 Thursday, September 15 0.842957 USD
2005-09-16 Friday, September 16 0.845594 USD
2005-09-19 Monday, September 19 0.855359 USD






These are yesterday's numbers. I'll update during the day 'cause I'm expecting a roller coaster.

The loonie gained against all major currencies yesterday. I have no idea why 'cause there's nothing particularly spectacular going on within Canada's economy except high oil prices (meaning Alberta and several other provinces are rolling in loonies (OK, bad pun, I'm sorry)). In Edmonton there's so much construction going on the equipment rental yards are empty and growing weeds. Help wanted signs are turning yellow with age. Dell (who recently opened a job centre in Edmonton) has taken out ads on the buses and LRT looking for people - that can't be cheap.

I'm suspecting the real story is the greenback and people are using the loonie as a safe haven. Given that the price of oil is in greenbacks, but Canadian development costs are in loonies, this makes for an equation that's giving me a headache.

[54anickel]

66. Is that a wiff of inflation in the air?

Rates for Time Warner cable going up
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3360874

Time Warner said Monday it will raise its cable TV rates for existing customers beginning Oct. 1 by $1.90 to $3 a month depending on the level of service. The rate hike will appear in bills sent out in November to cover the previous month's service.

New customers have been paying the increased rate since Sept. 1.

Time Warner said the increase is needed to defray higher costs of electricity to power its facilities and for gasoline needed for its fleet of 1,100 vehicles that cover an area from The Woodlands to Galveston.

"The reality is most businesses are feeling the pressure of increased costs of power and fuel," said Michael Bybee, a Time Warner spokesman in Houston. "Along with that, we continue to face significant increases in programming costs. We're being forced to adjust the rates to offset these increases."

more...


Shanghai Copper Rises as Oil Price Surge Spurs Commodity Buying
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aRHkuhX4rZrI&refer=latin_america

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Copper futures in Shanghai rose for the first day in five as surging oil prices prompted hedge funds to buy commodities and as copper users build inventories before the week-long National Day break.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities yesterday rose 3.8 percent, the biggest percentage gain since the index debuted in September 1956. Crude oil and other energy prices soared on concern Tropical Storm Rita may disrupt fuel output in the Gulf of Mexico.

``Copper rose as the storm triggered fund buying,'' said Cai Luoyi, head of research at China International Futures (Shanghai) Co.

Copper for December delivery, the most actively traded contract, rose as much as 920 yuan, or 2.7 percent, to 34,510 yuan ($4,265) a metric ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The contract traded at 34,370 yuan at 11:30 a.m. break local time. Shanghai copper futures have fallen 2.2 percent from a closing high of 35,130 yuan on Sept. 5.

more...

Cabbies seek help as gas prices soar
Taxi drivers across country ask regulators to authorize fare increases
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9401111/

snip>

Cabbies squeezed by high fuel costs have been asking regulators around the country to authorize fare increases or temporary surcharges to help them restore profits lost at the pumps.

Their appeals began months ago, but have intensified since Hurricane Katrina crippled refining capacity in the United States, driving prices above $3 a gallon.

A handful of cities have already granted some relief.

Washington, D.C.'s taxi commission voted this month to allow drivers to charge an extra $1.50 per trip for at least the next four months. The surcharge replaced an earlier $1 fee put in place in May.

Philadelphia officials approved a 30-cent-per-mile hike in July, and are now contemplating an additional surcharge because gas prices have increased so much, so fast. Baltimore raised fares in late June. Los Angeles officials are close to approving a 10 percent hike, plus surcharges of 50 cents to $1, depending on the price of fuel.

more...


Rohm & Haas Raising Prices
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/10243412.html

Specialty materials maker Rohm & Haas (ROH:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) says it must raise prices again due to higher raw materials and fuel costs created by Hurricane Katrina.

"While Rohm & Haas does not have any operating facilities in the Gulf Coast area impacted by Hurricane Katrina, and we expect minimal supply disruptions as a result of the storm, the disaster is exacerbating the situation with regard to raw material and energy-related costs," the company said in a release.

The company also updated its outlook, saying it expects to earn 67 cents to 70 cents a share in the third quarter on sales of about $1.9 billion. Analysts were expecting earnings of 68 cents a share on sales of $1.98 billion.

The company called previous price hikes "very effective," but said recent increases in raw material and energy-related costs require an immediate response.

"The outlook for raw material and energy-related costs remains challenging, and we expect costs to remain at extraordinarily high levels well into 2006," Rohm & Haas said. "This will require a continued focus on pricing, as well as operating efficiencies, to maintain acceptable margins."

more...

Winter heating costs to rocket
5 to 10 distributors face gas-price probe

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2005/09/20/winter_heating_costto_rocket/

snip>

The nearly 1 million homeowners who use heating oil can expect to pay 31 percent more for fuel than they did last year, translating to an average $500 total increase. Natural gas utilities are seeking average rate hikes of 26 percent over last year. Electric utilities are likely to soon follow with requests for 20 percent and higher rate increases.

The predictions for winter price hikes came at a daylong State House hearing where state prosecutors revealed they have issued subpoenas to between five and 10 gasoline distributors under scrutiny for possible price gouging as pump prices soared following Katrina's rampage through the Gulf Coast oil patch.

snip>

But Governor Mitt Romney's top energy adviser warned that there's no sign gasoline will soon return to its $2-a-gallon prices of a few years ago, and the coming spate of energy price jolts is a sign of a ''a new era" for energy.

''We're going to have high petroleum prices for years to come," David L. O'Connor, state commissioner of energy resources, told members of the Legislature's Joint Committee on Telecommunications, Utilities, and Energy as they grilled more than three dozen energy industry officials and regulators.

National Grid USA, formerly Massachusetts Electric Co., the state's largest electric utility, will later this week propose new rates to take effect Oct. 1. NStar, which serves Boston and 80 suburbs, is not due to seek a new rate until Jan. 1. KeySpan Energy Delivery, NStar, and other natural gas utilities filed their proposed rate increases with state regulators last week.

more...

[UpInArms]

69. A "whiff"?

:spray:

My Gawd! It's that lump that they keep attempting to shove back under the carpet at the FOMC!

Pretty soon all the table tops will be shaped like turtle backs and nothing will lay flat anywhere in this country.

[54anickel]

71. Heh, for some reason I don't think this is the type of inflation that

raising interest rates a hair is going to help. This isn't because the US economy is too hot (China, maybe; The US - phfft!). Greenspin is now completely outta his element. He's always been a one trick pony, and I don't think it's gonna work this time around.

[ozymandius]

76. My imagination conjured something too large and stinky for a carpet. n/t

[54anickel]

67. Mortgage REITs cut dividends

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/09/20/BUGA7EQCO61.DTL

Few investors have more riding on the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision today -- and the next few to follow -- than shareholders of real estate investment trusts that borrow to buy securities backed by residential mortgages.

Many of these so-called mortgage REITs have been clobbered by the triple whammy of higher short-term rates, falling long-term rates and a continuing wave of mortgage prepayments.

Last Thursday, industry leader Annaly Mortgage Management shocked investors when it slashed its quarterly cash dividend to 13 cents from 36 cents. It was the third and biggest cut this year. In the fourth quarter of last year, the dividend was 50 cents.

Its stock has fallen 13.5 percent since Thursday and 34 percent this year.

Companies like Annaly live and die by the yield curve, or the relationship between short- and long-term interest rates. Normally, the curve slopes upward, meaning short-term rates are lower than long-term rates.

That's a money-making environment for Annaly, which borrows money at short-term rates and invests in securities backed by residential mortgages insured by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

more...

How can Greenspin continue to say "things are different this time, a falling yield curve is not necessarily harmful to the economy, blah, blah, blah."?

[UpInArms]

73. Federated outlines post-May Department merger plans (1,700 jobs cut)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38615.4873076273-842954508&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Federated Department Stores Inc. (FD) on Tuesday outlined a series of moves aimed at reducing costs and building the Macy's and Bloomingdale's brands. The retailer said it will begin phasing out May Co. and May Merchandising Corp. operations on March 1, 2006, affecting 1,7000 employees. It also said three stores it acquired from May Co. will be closed in 2006 and reopened as Bloomingdale's after remodeling; as well, a new Hecht's store under construction in Chevy Chase, Md. will be opened as a Bloomingdale's, bringing the number of Bloomingdale's stores to 40. Also, all Marshall Field's stores will be converted to the Macy's name in fall 2006. Federated said the results of the moves are in line with its previously announced cost-savings estimates.

[ozymandius]

100. UPDATE - Federated Plans to Cut Up to 6,200 Jobs

CINCINNATI - Federated Department Stores Inc. said on Tuesday it is planning to cut up to 6,200 jobs beginning in 2006, including 1,700 in St. Louis at the corporate offices of May Department Stores Co. that Federated bought this year.

Federated also said it will change all 62 Marshall Field's stores to the Macy's nameplate next fall, sell the Philadelphia-based bridal group division it acquired from May and is studying what to do what its Lord & Taylor division.

In addition to the cuts in St. Louis, about 4,500 positions will be eliminated beginning in March as Federated phases out May's divisional operations in Boston, Houston, Arlington, Va., and Los Angeles.

-cut-

The job cuts are the first announced since Federated completed its $11.9 billion purchase of May in August, creating a combined retailing powerhouse better able to compete against Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and upscale merchants. The merger combined more than 1,000 stores with $30 billion in annual sales.

more

[UpInArms]

102. If we "turn one more corner", we'll all be

living in the streets.

:(

[54anickel]

74. Inflation vs Deflation, and how this time is different.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/lee/sep192005.html

snip>

During the last phase of boom, few save while most spent on credit. All the money spent flows to few strong hands. Eventually banks (then private) stop lending, the public bankrupt, and price deflation follows as people liquidate (so called K-winter). The few strong hands with money have no effect on prices since

a. They are very few in number, thus their consumption doesn’t affect prices.

b. They believe their money is worth something, therefore they are in no hurry to spend until deflation is over and inflation picks up again.

This is what happened in the 1930’s deflation/depression. Why are those strong hands (JPMorgans, Rockefellers etc) numbered in a few only? First there simply aren’t many smart ones with the sole desire to make money, secondly the contrarian group by definition is small in number. When everyone is bathed in good times, few can detect the winter is coming.

Those insiders reap the benefits of deflation and come out even further ahead with their increased purchasing power. Such theory is supported somewhat in reality as the world’s wealth is concentrated in few dozen hands. Over time though, few rich manage to keep the wealth. When you have massive wealth (as a country, individual, or company), you attract the unscrupulous, and one careless mistake sinks your entire boat. There is the old Chinese saying – Wealth doesn’t pass on 3 generations. Therefore, a fair amount of the concentrated wealth gets redistributed back to the ordinary people through conning.

This is my view on how the world managed to get along reasonably well. 1930’s is also what the K-winter / deflationists predict will happen again, as USA seemingly approaches the end of boom.

This time however, I believe we won’t have K-winter. Refer to points a. and b. above and we see that

more...

[54anickel]

75. Thoughts on Savings (part 2 of 2)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/shedlock/shedlock092005.html

Is the problem that the United States is spending too much, or is the problem that the rest of the world is saving too much? Let's briefly consider the latter viewpoint. Ben "Helicopter Drop" Bernanke (affectionately known as $Ben for the rest of this article) suggests the problem with the U.S. current account balance and growing indebtedness is a Global Saving Glut:

$Ben asks, "Why is the United States, with the world's largest economy, borrowing heavily on international capital markets -- rather than lending, as would seem more natural?"

In a self-serving answer, Ben proposes:

"My answers will be somewhat unconventional in that I will take issue with the common view that the recent deterioration in the U.S. current account primarily reflects economic policies and other economic developments within the United States itself...To be more specific, I will argue that over the past decade, a combination of diverse forces has created a significant increase in the global supply of saving -- a global saving glut -- which helps to explain both the increase in the U.S. current account deficit and the relatively low level of long-term real interest rates in the world today...

"One well-understood source of the saving glut is the strong saving motive of rich countries with aging populations, which must make provision for an impending sharp increase in the number of retirees relative to the number of workers. With slowly growing or declining work forces, as well as high capital-labor ratios, many advanced economies outside the United States also face an apparent dearth of domestic investment opportunities. As a consequence of high desired saving and the low prospective returns to domestic investment, the mature industrial economies as a group seek to run current account surpluses, and thus to lend abroad."

$Ben proposes this solution:

"Some of the key reasons for the large U.S. current account deficit are external to the United States, implying that purely inward-looking policies are unlikely to resolve this issue. Thus, a more direct approach is to help and encourage developing countries to re-enter international capital markets in their more natural role as borrowers, rather than as lenders."

$Ben concludes with:

"We probably have little choice except to be patient as we work to create the conditions in which a greater share of global saving can be redirected away from the United States and toward the rest of the world -- particularly the developing nations."

Gee.

more...

[UpInArms]

77. 12:27 EST uncertainty prevails

Dow 10,580.96 +23.33 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,157.32 +12.06 (+0.56%)
S&P 500 1,233.44 +2.42 (+0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.273 +0.26 (+0.61%)

NYSE Volume 968,672,000
Nasdaq Volume 827,501,000

12:00PM: Major indices hold onto respectable gains midday, as a sharp pullback in oil and strong sector leadership from Financial and Tech ahead of the Fed's decision this afternoon provide the impetus for a market rebound...

Following yesterday's record-breaking $4.39, or 7%, surge in the price of crude, consolidation efforts in crude oil prices (-$1.89 $65.50/bbl), on news that Hurricane Rita may now miss the refinery-rich Houston area and reports that OPEC will offer about 2 mln extra barrels of oil a day, has offered investors some relief ahead of another anticipated ¼% rate hike and uncertainty related to the wording in this afternoon's FOMC policy statement...

Providing the bulk of this morning's turnaround has been leadership throughout the influential Financial sector. Brokers' 1.4% spike, following Goldman Sachs' (GS 119.80 +1.52) stellar Q3 earnings report by which the company delivered EPS of $3.25, $0.90 ahead of analyst expectations, on $7.29 bln in revenues, has served as a particular bright spot today and adds to its 15.6% year-to-date rise. Technology has lent further momentum through its 0.9% surge. Qualcomm (QCOM 44.17 +1.46) has been the sector's early riser, lifted by Goldman Sachs' upgrade, while solid gains offered by a host of mainstays have contributed to the sector's standing and overall market's gains...

Energy, however, has continued to deteriorate in sympathy with falling oil prices while Consumer Discretionary has also traded below the flat line. The latter has been under modest pressure as investors weigh better than expected Q2 earnings and upside FY06 guidance from Circuit City (CC 16.49 +0.98) against Q3 earnings warnings from Leggett & Platt (LEG 21.02 -1.78), Brunswick (BC 38.26 -4.24) and Maytag (MYG 18.11 -0.43), with the latter weighing on acquirer Whirlpool (WHR 74.23 -2.02). Weakness in homebuilding (-0.6%), after Aug. housing starts fell 1.3% to 2.01 mln (consensus 2.03 mln) and building permits fell 2.2% to 2.12 mln (consensus 2.13 mln), has also stalled recovery efforts... However, the market as a whole has basically overlooked the morning's economic docket in favor of this afternoon's FOMC policy announcement (2:15 ET). While the potential 25 bp rate hike will come as little surprise, the market remains braced for the accompanying text that may allude to the Fed's longer-term tightening vision...

The Treasury market, on the contrary, has headed south. The 10-year note, which ended four sessions of declines yesterday on speculation that record jumps in energy prices would curb the economy, reversed that course today; the 10-year note is currently off 6 ticks, yielding 4.27%...DJTA +0.9, DJUA +0.3, DOT +0.6, Nasdaq 100 +0.8, Russell 2000 +0.4, SOX +1.0, S&P Midcap 400 +0.1, XOI -1.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 1814/1290, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1706/1125

It seems that some gamblers have remembered that higher interest rates are not "market positive".

[ozymandius]

78. UIA you beat me to it.

[UpInArms]

81. Hiya Ozy!

Here's one to strike fear in the hearts of market gamblers:

"Barbie doll sales are weak!"

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF26B5C5B%2D2E3F%2D494A%2DA0CE%2D84ED5622F32A%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Mattel Inc., the nation's largest toy maker, saw its stock trade lower Tuesday after an analyst downgrade based on continued weakness at its flagship Barbie-doll brand.

Mattel (MAT: news, chart, profile) , El Segundo, Calif., was off 3.3%, or 59 cents, at $17.37 in recent trading.

Harris Nesbitt analyst Sean McGowan, who cut his rating to neutral from outperform, said the long-awaited recovery in Barbie sales shows no sign of happening soon.

"Despite strength in several other product lines, we believe weakness in Barbie, against the backdrop of rising costs and increasing consumer skittishness, will result in significant shortfalls to revenues and profits in the second half of 2005 and beyond," the analyst said in a note to clients.

U.S. Barbie sales have been flat or declined for 17 of the past 18 quarters, McGowan said, estimating that domestic revenue from the toy line fell to less than $600 million in 2004 from $920 million in 2000.

...more...

When the freakin' market is relying on sales of barbiedolls - you know we're in trouble :scared:

[54anickel]

83. Rikers Island the next stop for Tyco boss

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20050920/RTYCO20/TPBusiness/TopStories

NEW YORK -- Former Tyco International Ltd. boss Dennis Kozlowski -- whose $6,000 (U.S.) shower curtain and $2-million Roman-themed birthday party came to symbolize executive greed -- is headed for the infamous Rikers Island, where he'll begin a sentence of up to 25 years for looting the company coffers.

As family members wept in the gallery, Mr. Kozlowski, 58, and former Tyco finance chief Mark Swartz, 44, were led from the courtroom in handcuffs yesterday after each being sentenced to a term of not less than eight years, four months and not more than 25 years. They were also ordered to pay a combined $240-million in fines and restitution.

They were convicted last spring, in a trial presided over by New York State Supreme Court Justice Michael Obus, of stealing more than $150-million from the company through unauthorized payments and loans.

Unlike many of the executives who have been jailed for high-profile, white-collar crimes, Mr. Kozlowski and Mr. Swartz will not serve their time in a federal prison "camp" but will endure the harsher confines of a state penitentiary.

more...

[ozymandius]

93. This is making me weep.

Deep in my heart I was hoping their punishment would be worse.

:nopity:

[UpInArms]

86. Laff #2: DeLay: House looking for wasteful spending to cut

Perhaps we could "cut" DeLay from the payroll?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38615.5346122106-842961946&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- House Republicans are looking for wasteful spending that can be cut to offset expenditures to rebuild the hurricane-ravaged Gulf Coast, but don't yet know the total costs of the effort, House Majority Leader Tom DeLay told reporters on Tuesday. DeLay ruled out tax hikes to pay for the Hurricane Katrina relief effort and remained cool to re-opening the highway bill in an effort to find offsets. Proposals by conservative Republicans to delay the full implementation of the Medicare prescription drug bill next year are a "non-starter," DeLay said.

[54anickel]

87. Can't possibly be any savings in that PORK laden highway bill, now can

there.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/10/AR2005081000223.html

Road Bill Reflects The Power Of Pork
White House Drops Effort to Rein In Hill

snip>

"There are nearly 6,500 member-requested projects worth more than $24 billion, nearly nine percent of the total spending," executives from six taxpayer and conservative groups complained in a letter to Bush urging that he use his veto pen for the first time. They noted that Reagan vetoed a transportation bill in 1987 because there were 152 such special requests, known in the parlance of congressional budgeting as "earmarks."

White House spokesman Trent Duffy replied that Bush pressured Congress to shave billions of dollars off the bill, and he said spending is "pretty modest" when spread out over five years. The transportation bill, at $57 billion a year, is a fraction of Medicare's $265 billion.

Besides, Duffy said, "the president has to work with the Congress."

[UpInArms]

89. 1:14 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,577.15 +19.52 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,155.58 +10.32 (+0.48%)
S&P 500 1,233.15 +2.13 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.269 +0.22 (+0.52%)

NYSE Volume 1,125,441,000
Nasdaq Volume 932,015,000

1:00PM: While crude's pullback has driven a considerable amount of today's advance, its concurrent 1.0% knock to the Energy sector has taken some steam out the day's recovery efforts, as the market still trades off its best levels. The Energy sector, which accounts for about 10% of the S&P, has been held underwater as reports that refineries are likely to escape further hurricane-related damage and OPEC's decision to release 2 mln additional barrels of crude per day has triggered some locking in of the commodity's 57.4% year-to-date gain. BJ Services (BJS 34.66 +0.28), however, which Briefing.com added to its active portfolio in May, remains the only sector component (out of 29) to trade higher, as plans to raise prices on domestic pressure pumping services have sent shares to another historic high while adding to the oil services group's 42.8% year-to-date gain... NYSE Adv/Dec 1723/1462, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1663/1199

12:30PM: No real change to the prevailing trend as the afternoon session gets underway and the Nasdaq continues to outpace its blue chip counterparts... Aside from an analyst upgrade on Qualcomm (QCOM 44.08 +1.37) providing a lift to Technology, which accounts for 15.1% of the weighting on the S&P, continued momentum throughout the semiconductor group (i.e. INTC, MXIM and LLTC), software (i.e. MSFT, ORCL, ADSK) and hardware (i.e. AAPL, SUNW, NOVL) has also provided support behind the market's rebound, especially on the tech-heavy Composite...NYSE Adv/Dec 1763/1369, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1681/1164

[UpInArms]

97. David Radler, Ex-Hollinger exec pleads guilty: Report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B91ED5621%2D40C4%2D4A51%2D9E7A%2D61AF1FB42232%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - The former president of newspaper publisher Hollinger International has pleaded guilty to a charge that he was part of a plot to pilfer $32 million in company funds, according to a published report Tuesday.

David Radler, former publisher of Hollinger's (HLR: news, chart, profile) Chicago Sun-Times newspaper, entered the plea in a federal court in Chicago, the Associated Press reported.

Radler faces five counts of mail fraud and two counts of wire fraud. He pleaded guilty to one count of mail fraud, the AP said.

Last month, Radler and Mark Kipnis, former counsel for the company, were named in indictments announced by Patrick Fitzgerald, U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Illinois.

Hollinger International is suing Toronto-based parent company Hollinger Inc. (CA:HLG.C: news, chart, profile) , alleging that mogul Conrad Black, Radler and other former executives at the parent company stole more than $400 million from the publisher over a period of seven years.

Black and the other executives were ousted from Hollinger International in 2003.

...more...

It's time for Radler to sing like a canary regarding Richard Perle.

[UpInArms]

103. 2:08 EST check-in before FOMC

Dow 10,573.16 +15.53 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,153.07 +7.81 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,232.89 +1.87 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.272 +0.25 (+0.59%)

NYSE Volume 1,319,179,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,085,453,00

2:00 Range-bound trading persists as stocks continue to trade sideways ahead of the Fed's upcoming decision regarding monetary policy... The FOMC's policy statement, which will be released in roughly 15 minutes, really remains the only unknown with regards to the Fed's action today, as a 25 bp hike in the fed funds rate to 3.75% is widely anticipated and will bring the FOMC yet another step closer to its neutral target - a rate which neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth... To that end, we at Briefing.com expect the "measured pace" language to be taken out in a nod toward the understanding that there is potential, in the wake of Katrina (and now Rita), for a near-term pause in the FOMC's tightening campaign... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1663/1531. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1636/1263.

1:35 The blue chip averages continue to fade, now trading below opening levels, as the countdown to the FOMC's announcement leaves less than an hour on the clock. The Consumer Staples sector (-0.03) has recently slipped into the red, with pressure from the likes of Coca-Cola (KO 42.95 -0.44), Wal-Mart (WMT 43.72 -0.29) and CVS (CVS 29.24 -0.29), coupled with analyst downgrades on PBG (-3.0%) and CCE (-1.7%), currently trumping strength from Proctor & Gamble (PG 56.19 +0.63), which reaffirmed its Q1 earnings outlook last night, Gillette (G 54.35 +0.65) and Kimberly Clark (KMB 61.32 +0.28). For its part, P&G, despite Katrina's dilutive affect, foresees EPS of $0.75-$0.76 (consensus $0.76) and sales growth towards the high end of the previously-guided 6-8% range... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1673/1504. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1659/1229.

[UpInArms]

107. 2:29 EST markets vaguely remember logic

Dow 10,544.66 -12.97 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,149.21 +3.95 (+0.18%)
S&P 500 1,229.38 -1.64 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.274 +0.27 (+0.64%)

NYSE Volume 1,444,244,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,196,770,000

2:15PM: As expected, the FOMC has raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% and maintains balanced risk assessment, with declaration that it believes policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured... NYSE Adv/Dec 1649/1556, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1607/1309

but amnesia should set in soon :eyes:

[54anickel]

108. DOH! Took a hit, but the 2:00 fairies appear to have been waiting in the

wings.
2:30
Dow 10,548.49 -9.14 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,149.63 +4.37 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,230.00 -1.02 (-0.08%)
10-yr Bond 42.74 +0.27 (+0.64%)
30-yr Bond 45.64 +0.21 (+0.46%)
NYSE Volume 1,450,561,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,200,646,000

2:15PM: As expected, the FOMC has raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% and maintains balanced risk assessment, with declaration that it believes policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured... NYSE Adv/Dec 1649/1556, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1607/1309

[54anickel]

110. Here's the Fed's statement

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2005/20050920/

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3-3/4 percent.

Output appeared poised to continue growing at a good pace before the tragic toll of Hurricane Katrina. The widespread devastation in the Gulf region, the associated dislocation of economic activity, and the boost to energy prices imply that spending, production, and employment will be set back in the near term. In addition to elevating premiums for some energy products, the disruption to the production and refining infrastructure may add to energy price volatility.

While these unfortunate developments have increased uncertainty about near-term economic performance, it is the Committee's view that they do not pose a more persistent threat. Rather, monetary policy accommodation, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Higher energy and other costs have the potential to add to inflation pressures. However, core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain contained.

The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

[UpInArms]

138. Fed Raises Rates Again, Calling Storm a Near-Term Setback

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/20/business/20cnd-fed.html

WASHINGTON, Sept. 20 - Saying that the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina was unlikely to pose a "persistent threat" to the economy, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates this afternoon for the 11th time in a row and signaled that more rate increases are likely in the months ahead.

Though the central bank acknowledged that the hurricane and higher energy prices would probably lead to slower growth and more joblessness over the next few months, it said financial conditions still appeared to support economic growth. At the same time, it left little doubt that its top priority was to head off inflation and it explicitly warned that the recent run-up in energy prices could increase inflationary pressures.

The Fed raised the federal funds rate on overnight loans between banks by a quarter-point, bring it to 3.75 percent.

In a lengthy statement, the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee acknowledged that Hurricane Katrina had caused widespread disruptions. "The widespread devastation in the Gulf region, the associated dislocation of economic activity and the boost to energy prices imply that spending, production and employment will be set back in the near term," it said.

But it continued: "While these unfortunate developments have increased uncertainty about the near-term economic performance, it is the committee's view that they do not pose a more persistent threat."

...more...

Actually, the "persistent threat" is Bubbles Meanspin.

[UpInArms]

109. CHRONOLOGY-Fed funds rate changes since 1990

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T182354Z_01_N20399918_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-CHRONOLOGY.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve raised
the benchmark federal funds rate on Tuesday to 3.75 percent
from 3.50 percent, the central bank's 11th straight rate hike
since it began tightening in June of last year.


The following is a chronology of the Federal Reserve's
changes in the federal funds rate since 1990.
(Moves are measured in basis points (bps), each of which
equals one-hundredth of a percentage point):

2005
Sept 20 Raised 25 bps to 3.75 pct
Aug 9 Raised 25 bps to 3.50 pct
June 30 Raised 25 bps to 3.25 pct
May 3 Raised 25 bps to 3.00 pct
March 22 Raised 25 bps to 2.75 pct
Feb 2 Raised 25 bps to 2.50 pct

2004
Dec 14 Raised 25 bps to 2.25 pct
Nov 10 Raised 25 bps to 2.00 pct
Sept 21 Raised 25 bps to 1.75 pct
Aug 10 Raised 25 bps to 1.50 pct
June 30 Raised 25 bps to 1.25 pct

2003
June 25 Cut 25 bps to 1.00 pct

2002
Nov 6 Cut 50 bps to 1.25 pct

2001
Dec 12 Cut 25 bps to 1.75 pct
Nov 6 Cut 50 bps to 2.00 pct
Oct 2 Cut 50 bps to 2.50 pct
Sept 17 Cut 50 bps to 3.00 pct
Aug 21 Cut 25 bps to 3.50 pct
June 27 Cut 25 bps to 3.75 pct
May 15 Cut 50 bps to 4.00 pct
April 18 Cut 50 bps to 4.50 pct
March 20 Cut 50 bps to 5.00 pct
Jan 31 Cut 50 bps to 5.50 pct
Jan 3 Cut 50 bps to 6.00 pct

2000
May 16 Raised 50 bps to 6.50 pct
March 21 Raised 25 bps to 6.00 pct
Feb 2 Raised 25 bps to 5.75 pct

1999
Nov 16 Raised 25 bps to 5.50 pct
Aug 24 Raised 25 bps to 5.25 pct
June 30 Raised 25 bps to 5.00 pct

1998
Nov 17 Cut 25 bps to 4.75 pct
Oct 15 Cut 25 bps to 5.00 pct
Sept 29 Cut 25 bps to 5.25 pct

1997
March 25 Raised 25 bps to 5.50 pct

1996
Jan 31 Cut 25 bps to 5.25 pct

1995
Dec 19 Cut 25 bps to 5.50 pct
July 6 Cut 25 bps to 5.75 pct
Feb 1 Raised 50 bps to 6.00 pct

1994
Nov 15 Raised 75 bps to 5.50 pct
Aug 16 Raised 50 bps to 4.75 pct
May 17 Raised 50 bps to 4.25 pct
April 18 Raised 25 bps to 3.75 pct
March 22 Raised 25 bps to 3.50 pct
Feb 4 Raised 25 bps to 3.25 pct

1993
No rate changes

1992
Sept 4 Cut 25 bps to 3.00 pct
July 2 Cut 50 bps to 3.25 pct
April 9 Cut 25 bps to 3.75 pct

1991
Dec 20 Cut 50 bps to 4.00 pct
Dec 6 Cut 25 bps to 4.50 pct
Nov 6 Cut 25 bps to 4.75 pct
Oct 31 Cut 25 bps to 5.00 pct
Sept 13 Cut 25 bps to 5.25 pct
Aug 6 Cut 25 bps to 5.50 pct
April 30 Cut 25 bps to 5.75 pct
March 8 Cut 25 bps to 6.00 pct
Feb 1 Cut 50 bps to 6.25 pct
Jan 9 Cut 25 bps to 6.75 pct

1990
Dec 18 Cut 25 bps to 7.00 pct
Dec 7 Cut 25 bps to 7.25 pct
Nov 13 Cut 25 bps to 7.50 pct
Oct 29 Cut 25 bps to 7.75 pct
July 13 Cut 25 bps to 8.00 pct

[54anickel]

113. So we're at April of '92 rates? And that was the high for 92!

[ozymandius]

119. Jeebus! This is a George I redux if there ever were one.

Consumer confidence is in the crapper. Productivity down... on and on...

[RawMaterials]

130. Maybe we can have a Clinton Redux

next, I would like that 8 years of prosperity and budget surplus.

[54anickel]

141. Like father, like son...n/t

[ozymandius]

111. Fed Boosts Key Rate a Quarter-Point

WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve on Tuesday boosted a key interest rate for the 11th straight time and signaled that more rate hikes were likely even as the country recovers from the devastating effects of Hurricane Katrina.

The action pushed the Fed's target for the federal funds rate — the interest that banks charge each other_ to 3.75 percent. That's the highest level since the summer of 2001.

Some economists had believed that Katrina, the country's costliest natural disaster, might prompt the Fed to pause temporarily in its campaign to drive interest rates higher to keep inflation in check. But Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and his colleagues said that Katrina's impact on the overall economy was likely to be short-lived.

In a brief statement explaining the action, the Fed said that all the problems from Katrina "will be a setback in the near term" for the economy. But the Fed said it did not believe that Katrina would pose a "more persistent threat" and therefore believed it needed to continue raising interest rates to guard against inflation.

more

[ozymandius]

115. Today's rate hike was brought to you by the color RED.

2:54
Dow 10,499.60 -58.03 (-0.55%)
Nasdaq 2,133.52 -11.74 (-0.55%)
S&P 500 1,224.86 -6.16 (-0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 42.55 +0.08 (+0.19%)
NYSE Volume 1,613,016,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,352,342,000

[Roland99]

117. Fairies bail for an early happy hour?

[ozymandius]

118. blather

2:30PM: Market spikes lower, pushing the blue chip averages into negative territory and more than halving gains on the Nasdaq, as the Fed failed to change the wording of the policy statement... Also weighing on sentiment has been further deterioration in the Treasury market, which has lifted the yield on the benchmark 10-year note (-10/32) to 4.28%...

The actual text of the statement reads: "Output appeared poised to continue growing at a good pace before the tragic toll of Hurricane Katrina. The widespread devastation in the Gulf region, the associated dislocation of economic activity, and the boost to energy prices imply that spending, production, and employment will be set back in the near term. In addition to elevating premiums for some energy products, the disruption to the production and refining infrastructure may add to energy price volatility...*

While these unfortunate developments have increased uncertainty about near-term economic performance, it is the Committee's view that they do not pose a more persistent threat. Rather, monetary policy accommodation, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Higher energy and other costs have the potential to add to inflation pressures. However, core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain contained...

*No shit.

[54anickel]

116. 2:54 - reality starts to set in

Dow 10,501.91 -55.72 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,135.60 -9.66 (-0.45%)
S&P 500 1,223.53 -7.49 (-0.61%)
10-yr Bond 4.261% +0.01
30-yr Bond 4.534% -0.01
NYSE Volume 1,618,013,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,361,856,000

[ozymandius]

120. entering the witching hour

2:59
Dow 10,496.57 -61.06 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 2,134.50 -10.76 (-0.50%)
S&P 500 1,223.44 -7.58 (-0.62%)
10-Yr Bond 42.43 -0.04 (-0.09%)
NYSE Volume 1,660,075,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,398,860,000

[UpInArms]

121. ROFLMAO! Washed-Up Has-Been Partisan Hack has "LameDuckItis"

2:56pm 09/20/05 DISSENT SHOWS GREENSPAN SUFFERS 'LAMEDUCK-ITIS;' CHAN

[UpInArms]

126. 3:09 EST and "cliff jumping"

Dow 10,477.23 -80.40 (-0.76%)
Nasdaq 2,129.75 -15.51 (-0.72%)
S&P 500 1,221.10 -9.92 (-0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 4.253 +0.06 (+0.14%)

NYSE Volume 1,733,662,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,474,287,000

[ozymandius]

123. from ugly to hideous

3:10
Dow 10,477.30 -80.33 (-0.76%)
Nasdaq 2,129.75 -15.51 (-0.72%)
S&P 500 1,221.01 -10.01 (-0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 42.53 +0.06 (+0.14%)
NYSE Volume 1,737,043,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,474,375,000

[ozymandius]

125. blather

2:55PM: Deterioration persists as market participants digest the Fed's latest rate hike and the unchanged policy directive that accompanied it...

While the market's two most influential sectors, Financials and Tech, had demonstrated initial resilience as each of the other sectors plunged deeper into the red, they too have relinquished day-long gains and are trading below the flat line. Notably, brokers have managed to retain a 0.4% gain for which Goldman Sachs (GS) remains largely responsible, while Tech still features several areas of relative strength, including semis (+0.1%), networking (+0.5%), and software (0.2%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1517/1718, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1523/1437

[UpInArms]

127. Wells Fargo raises prime rate after Fed rate hike

(and just wait -not long- for all the others to jump on the bandwagon)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T190931Z_01_WEN9455_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-PRIMERATE-WELLSFARGO-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - U.S. bank Wells Fargo Bank N.A. on Tuesday raised its prime rate, a borrowing rate it charges its best customers and which serves as a benchmark for consumer loans, to 6.75 percent from 6.50 percent.

The increase, effective immediately, came after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its key federal funds rate for the 11th straight time, to 3.75 percent from 3.5 percent.

The federal funds rate is the rate at which banks borrow money from one another overnight and serves as a benchmark for many loans, swaying borrowing costs throughout the economy.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

128. Reinsurers see Katrina costing one year of profits

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-20T190800Z_01_N20368085_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-KATRINA-REINSURERS.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Bermuda-based reinsurers on Tuesday said Hurricane Katrina will wipe out a full year's profit for the industry and questioned the ability of disaster modelers to estimate insured losses.

PartnerRe Ltd. (PRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Executive Patrick Thiele, speaking at a Fox-Pitt, Kelton insurance conference, said the reinsurance industry, with $160 billion in capital, could easily withstand a loss of $19 billion to $21 billion, which would be about 12 percent of capital, or "a full year's worth of earnings."

But estimates for total claims from the storm that whipped the U.S. Gulf Coast and left New Orleans under water extend from as little as $14 billion to as much as $60 billion.

"They really don't know," said XL Capital Ltd. (XL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Executive Henry Keeling. "The disaster modelers are all struggling with the numbers, and you've got to pick your poison."

Keeling and fellow conference panelist Thiele were assessing costs for reinsurers, which provide insurance to insurance companies to protect them from excessive losses. A Web cast of the Boston conference was monitored by Reuters.

...more...

[JNelson6563]

129. Headin' out for revolution work

but my oh my have things turned sour or what???

3:20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dow 10,481.60 -76.03 (-0.72%)
Nasdaq 2,129.13 -16.13 (-0.75%)
S&P 500 1,220.91 -10.11 (-0.82%)
10-Yr Bond 4.243% -0.00


I'm heading to one of my forgetten and neglected counties to get them geared up to join the overthrow. I've decided my efforts will be more effective if I go and give all 14 counties their own private workshops. So far, so good.

Viva le revolution! Cheers to you all Marketeers! :toast:

Julie

[ozymandius]

131. Vive la revolution Julie!

Thanks for doing great work!

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

134. 3:38 EST after happy hour fairies bumbling toward 10,500

Dow 10,492.11 -65.52 (-0.62%)
Nasdaq 2,133.48 -11.78 (-0.55%)
S&P 500 1,222.12 -8.90 (-0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 4.243 -0.04 (-0.09%)

NYSE Volume 1,951,669,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,647,220,000

[daleo]

139. Back below 10,500 again.

That's four years, eight months with no gains for the Bush market.

[ozymandius]

140. closing numbers with blather

Dow 10,481.52 -76.11 (-0.72%)
Nasdaq 2,131.33 -13.93 (-0.65%)
S&P 500 1,221.34 -9.68 (-0.79%)
10-Yr Bond 42.43 -0.04 (-0.09%)
NYSE Volume 2,296,678,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,847,094,000

ADVERTISEMENT

Close: Plummeting after traders digested the Fed's 11th consecutive 25 basis point rate hike in 15 months, along with the FOMC's unchanged policy directive that retained the "measured" language that so many participants hoped that Katrina (and now Rita) would have nixed, the market erased early gains more than twice over and shoved each economic sector into the red. Eased prices across the energy complex served as an early bullish catalyst, affording the market a sigh of relief after crude jumped a record high $4.39/bbl yesterday - a 7% rise that accompanied 12% surges in both gasoline and natural gas. While OPEC's decision to release an additional 2 mln barrels of crude per day (beginning Oct. 1) added to the commodity's early weakness, reports that newly-upgraded Hurricane Rita may further disturb Gulf oil operations injected some fresh buying interest in crude futures, which closed down 1.7% at $66.23/bbl (-$1.16) that effectively pared the indices' gains and roped them into a tight trading range heading into the FOMC's policy announcement at 2:15 ET...

To that end, while another ¼% rate hike was widely anticipated, retaining the "measured" language this time around, when so many were hoping the Fed may provide a clearer picture as to when the tightening may come to an end, waned on sentiment, closing every sector near session lows...