STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 30 September

[ozymandius]

Friday September 30, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 113 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 284 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 348 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1405
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 29, 2005

Dow... 10,552.78 +79.69 (+0.76%)
Nasdaq... 2,141.22 +25.82 (+1.22%)
S&P 500... 1,227.68 +10.79 (+0.89%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.29% +0.03 (+0.63%)
Gold future... 475.80 +2.70 (+0.57%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Character of Bond and Gold Markets May be Changing

Even though the bond market seems to be directionless in the intermediate time frame, a look at the long term chart suggests that the character of the bond market may be changing. Since the top of the interest rate yield of the 10-year note in 1981, interest rates have been in a secular decline. During this decline, cyclical rallies in interest rates have been sharp and of relatively short duration. Yet since the 10-year note rate bottomed in mid-2004, interest rates have risen at a slower pace. In addition the general trend of higher lows and higher highs since mid-2004 has been of longer duration than the approximate 2-year duration of the former longest rally in the 10-year note rate.

In spite of this potential change in the character of the bond market, no major trendlines have been broken (yet). A look at the 4-year weekly chart shows that although the 10-year note yield appears to be “lighter,” the market is now consolidating in a progressively narrower range, which has generally been between 4.0 and 4.5% since October of 2003. Stating the obvious, a break above 4.5% or below 4.0% will be meaningful for the bond market. If the 10-year note yield drops below 4%, it would likely be a result of an economic slowdown. Similarly, a break above 4.5% on the 10-year note would not be good for the consumer-based US economy either. Interest rates need to remain in their narrow trading range to support the selling of the “Goldilocks” economic scenario to the US public.


-cut-

There’s some action in the Gold Bugs Index ($HUI), which also suggests that the character of the gold market may be changing. The HUI has been in a well-defined trading range since November of 2003. Two times before, the HUI reached the top of its trading range, only to be quickly turned back. Yet this time, the HUI is consolidating at the upper end of its trading range. Is this suggesting a positive change of character in the gold market?

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil Prices Fall to $66.55 a Barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices eased Friday as traders monitored the slow pace of recovery on the U.S. Gulf Coast after Hurricane Rita and its possible long-term impact on Northern Hemisphere winter fuel supplies.

Benchmark light, sweet crude for November delivery fell 24 cents to $66.55 a barrel on electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract had closed at $66.79 a barrel, up 44 cents, on Thursday.

-cut-

Prices rose overnight on news that Gulf of Mexico oil production had started — but only slightly. The Minerals Management Service said that as of Thursday, 98.6 percent of output was still blocked, allowing a flow of 1.48 million barrels of oil per day. Suspended natural gas production was slightly lower at 79.79 percent, or 7.98 billion cubic feet per day, it said.

-cut-

"Every so often, some event occurs... And then the event goes away, but the prices don't go down as far as before," said John Vautrain, vice-president at Texas-headquartered energy consultants Purvin & Gertz.

more

[ozymandius]

3. Europe lines up gasoline exports to US

LONDON (Reuters) - European exporters are preparing another wave of gasoline and distillate arbitrage cargoes to the United States to fill up gaps in the U.S. supply chain caused by recent hurricanes.

-cut-

The U.S. government forecasts at least 15 percent -- 1.3 million barrels per day of gasoline and 700,000 barrels per day of distillate fuel -- will remain offline for a few more weeks.

Traders and shipping sources said 500,000-550,000 tonnes of gasoline had already been lined up for spot exports to arrive in North America in the second half of the month, or roughly 450,000 barrels per day of European exports.

-cut-

HEAT RUSH

In addition to concerns about a crunch on motor fuel supplies, the refinery outages have raised the prospect of a heating oil shortage with winter on the way.

more

[AnneD]

35. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Let me give you a bit of a ground report here. Rita has done more damage to the offshore platforms than Katrina (per our local news-but I have heard the same scuttlebutt elsewhere). Makes sense if you look at the maps of rig positioning. The refineries in Texas are located for the most part in Pasadena,Texas City, Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange etc and storage tanks are everywhere. Beaumont and Port Arthur and the surrounding counties are not fully with electricity so many families are displaced. These are the workers that man the refineries. FEMA (say isn't that Italian for useless sack of shyte) has not been useful in their 'position' as coordinator. Many of the refineries are trying to rent hotels for the workers and scrounge up generators. As I have said before, refineries have usually switched over to making heating oil by now so they are way behind. It will be a terrible time up North this year. I suggest you folks start lining up fuel and alternative sources asap. Looks like y'all will be having a few 3 dog nights (so cold you have to pile 3 hound dogs in bed with you to stay warm). Happy Hunting and watch out for the bears.

[54anickel]

39. SNARF! Is it Italian, or maybe it's FRENCH - as the Freepers would say.

[amandabeech]

60. The FRENCH are major suppliers to the U.S. of gasoline, diesel

and heating oil. French refining and/or ports are on strike at the moment. All as of http://www.theoildrum.com/

[54anickel]

62. Oh THAT should get the Freepers all worked up again. Thanks for

the link - interesting site.

[AnneD]

88. Think we will have an embargo...

after all it is French....oh, and those rough necks that work out of LA and Tx (Beaumont, Pt Arthur)....most of them are French or of French descent..... They generally don't like their heritage disparaged and they are a tough group and would make short work of many freepers I know.......

[54anickel]

101. Remember this little gem, wonder what the Freepers think of this one

now that France is sending us gasoline. Seems much more appropriate for the current conditions. :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

40. Thanks for the local p.o.v. AnneD!

Makes perfect sense that "old" Europe is sending us more petrol since we, the mightiest nation the world has ever known with the highest standard of living in the world, cannot tend to our own affairs.

[UpInArms]

36. Energy Dept.begins shipping reserve oil to Marathon

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38625.3895309606-844506333&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said it has begun shipping sweet crude oil to Marathon Petroleum (MRO) from the Bryan Mound, Texas, Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Following Hurricane Katrina, the administration offered 30 million barrels from the country's emergency stockpiles for bid to the market to prevent a supply disruption. The transfer of crude oil to Marathon will proceed in batches throughout October until the total 550,000 barrels awarded to the company is delivered, the Energy Department said. The Energy Department accepted bids for 11 million barrels of the oil and separately has agreed to loan an additional 13.2 million barrels to refiners whose deliveries were interrupted.

[UpInArms]

122. Crude closes @ $66.24 bbl - Heating Oil @ $2.0673/gal - NatGas @ $13.921

2:58pm 09/30/05 NOV CRUDE CLOSES AT $66.24/BRL, DOWN 55C FOR THE SESSION

2:58pm 09/30/05 NOV CRUDE TALLIES 12.7% GAIN FOR THE QUARTER

2:58pm 09/30/05 NOV CRUDE UP 3.2% FOR THE WEEK, BUT DOWN 4.6% FOR THE MONTH

3:11pm 09/30/05 OCT HEATING OIL CLOSES AT $2.0673/GAL, DOWN 2.7% ON DAY

3:11pm 09/30/05 OCT HEATING OIL UP 23.4% FOR THE QUARTER

3:11pm 09/30/05 OCT HEATING OIL UP 6% ON WEEK, DOWN 0.4% ON MONTH

3:12pm 09/30/05 NOV NATURAL GAS CLOSES AT $13.921, UP 80% FOR THE QUARTER

3:12pm 09/30/05 NOV NATURAL GAS CLOSES DOWN 27.5C, OR 1.9%, FOR THE SESSION

[UpInArms]

137. NATURAL GAS JUMPS 80% IN QUARTER; GASOLINE, 44%; CRUDE, 13%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid={68F4D63F-4450-41F9-A1B3-81BEE327444F}&dist=bnb

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Natural-gas futures fell Friday but tallied a whopping 80% gain for the quarter, while crude prices climbed almost 13% and unleaded gasoline was up 44% in three months. Traders have been closely monitoring updates on U.S. refining capacity in the Gulf of Mexico and the state of the nation's petroleum supplies. November natural gas closed at $13.921 per million British thermal units, down 1.9% for the day. It was up 19.4% for the month. November crude finished at $66.24 a barrel, down 55 cents for the day, down 4.6% for the month. October unleaded gas ended at $2.138 a gallon, down 5% Friday and for the month.

Where's Meanspin?????

He was so loud when there was a spike in gasoline prices and Bill Clinton was president!

Where is MEANSPIN NOW!?!

When will he tell the world that the citizens of the country cannot afford to heat their homes? When will he tell the citizens of the world that there is something wrong with an administration that doesn't control the cost of fuel???

[ozymandius]

4. US economic momentum in doubt after hurricanes

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The US economy was on a robust path ahead of the two massive hurricanes that hit the Gulf Coast, data showed, but analysts say the outlook is now murky and some are even talking about risks of recession.

The economy expanded at a 3.3 percent pace in the second quarter, the government said in its final estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the period that excludes the impact of Katrina and Rita.

The latest figure on the April-June quarter was unrevised from last month, and reflected a deceleration from the pace of 3.8 percent seen in the previous three months, the Commerce Department said.

-cut-

David Kotok, economist at Cumberland Advisors, has provisionally marked down his growth forecast to 2.0 percent for the fourth quarter of 2005 and first quarter of 2006, but adds "I worry that I may be too high."

more

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.28 Change -0.12 (-0.13%)

Stronger Data Fails to Clarify the Uncertainty Around the Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3856&Itemid=39

US Dollar - Despite some intraday excitement, the dollar struggled to make any meaningful move today. Indecision reigns high in the markets with the EUR/USD trapped within a 1.1980-1.2080 range since the beginning of the week. The greenback range traded throughout the Asian and European trading sessions, then fell significantly following better US data, but proceeded to retrace most of its losses for the remainder of the US session. These days, traders seem to question both good and bad data. Even though the final release of GDP for the second quarter was unrevised at 3.3%, both personal consumption and the GDP price index was revised higher. The arguments for the reliability of this release is fairly obvious with the market quickly talking about how even though Q2 growth and demand was solid, Q3 growth should be much less impressive. Much of the growth in the second quarter was attributed to a surge in motor vehicle sales, which are much weaker now. Economists have already slashed their forecasts for third quarter growth. Jobless claims were more interesting though, rising by only 356k compared to estimates of 418k. According to the Labor Department, Katrina accounted for 279,000 jobless claims since it struck at the end of August. The government had originally forecasted 400,000 jobs to be lost as a result of Katrina. The question is then whether the worst is now behind us. Whether the answer is yes or no, we are still in for some ugly non-farm payroll numbers next week. As of today, Bloomberg reports that the consensus around the street is that payrolls are expected to fall by 168k in the month of September. If we do have a negative reading, it would be the first since May of 2003. Dollar traders are still keeping an eye on commodity prices. Oil is up $0.43 while natural gas climbs to yet another all-time high. Trading could be interesting during Asian trading today with Fed President Stern and Kohn both speaking this evening.

...more...

Will Manufacturing Be The Dollar's Undoing

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3851&Itemid=39

U.S. Personal Income and Consumption Expenditure (AUG)(12:30GMT, 8:30EDT)

Personal Income
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: 0.3%

Personal Consumption Expenditure
Consensus: -0.2%
Previous: 1.0%

Outlook: U.S. personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% for the month of August as businesses continue to take home higher profits. Incomes attached to real estate transactions will be the largest contributor to this gain as home values continue to rise. Unlike last month, however, this increase in wages and salaries is likely to be matched by a positive gain in savings as personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is expected to decline by 0.2%. This will be the first fall in spending in 3 months and the biggest drop since June 2004. Consumers will be cutting expenditure on nonessential items to cover the soaring cost of energy, especially after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita have put a large number of critical refineries out of commission. In contrast to last month, when automobile sales lead spending, car purchases look to be weak for the month of August as large-scale destruction of the gulf coast has pushed fuel prices impossibly high.

Previous: Personal Income rose at a rate of .3% in July, intensely fueled by rising home values and a strong equities market. The increase had its greatest effect in the private sector, where wages and salaries increased by $29.4 billion as opposed to a climb of only $17.9 billion the previous month. Employment rates had much to do with the overall increase in income, as weekly initial jobless claims were below average for the entire month. Increased income in July, however, did not result in increased savings. In fact, the personal savings rate fell to a record low of -0.6%. This was due to the 1% gain in PCE. A large contributor to the rise in spending was car sales as consumers flooded showrooms to take advantage of steep automobile discounts. In fact, demand at car and parts dealers soared 6.7%. The last time demand for automobiles was so high was in October of 2001 when auto manufacturers were offering zero-interest loans to boost sales after the attacks of September 11th.

US Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Sep)(14:00GMT, 10:00EDT)
Consensus: 51.0
Previous: 49.2

Outlook: The Chicago PMI is expected to increase to 51.0 in September after drastically dropping last month below 50 to 49.2 suggestive of a contraction. The inventory clearing strategies employed by the automakers through August may have actually exaggerated the drop in manufacturing last month. Late seasonal distortions will have been cleared for September and the expansion seen over the past months will continue although slightly. A rebound across the board of US economic numbers is also expected for September as the shock from Hurricane Katrina begins to wear off and reconstruction begins. The slow growth predicted for the month can be mostly attributed to the continuous burden of oil prices on the consumer causing manufacturers to scale back production.

Previous: In August, manufacturing unexpectedly contracted in the Chicago area for the first time since April 2003. The index was only expected to fall slightly from 63.5 in July to 61; however it actually dropped to 49.2 – the largest drop on record. This drop suggested that oil prices are having a hard effect on factory demand. Also, during August, automakers, starting with General Motors, began to cut production and lower prices to clear out huge stocks of unsold cars. Manufacturers started to become cautious with their outlooks, seeing the effect that heightened energy prices has had on consumers, and slow production in reaction. US economic growth also slowed to 3.3 percent in the second quarter as consumers bought even less than expected and bought more foreign goods. The new orders index tumbled to 46.5 from 69.6 and the production index to 56.2 from 70.5.

University of Michigan Consumer Survey (SEP)(14:00GMT, 10:00EDT)
Consensus: 80.0
Previous: 76.9

Outlook: Although sliding to a reading of 76.9 in the month of August, the final figure for September looks to be a tad more optimistic with consensus figures pointing to an 80 print. Contributing to the overall loftier sentiment was a decision by the U.S. government to approve more than $62 billion in extra spending in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. As a result, a pickup in construction and manufacturing look imminent, leading to an increase in overall domestic expansion prospects. Additionally contributing are consumers’ overall spending habits as both wage and job growth rise. Ultimately, both increases have counteracted previous concerns of higher energy costs as consumers focus on the brightside future.

Previous: Final figures for the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey dipped for the first time in three months as higher gasoline prices dampened once heightened personal consumption. Rising above $60 in the month, crude oil prices hit an all time high of $70.85 on August 30th trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Subsequently, gasoline prices at the pump rose to a record $2.61 in the week of the aforementioned release. This caused sentiment to drop from a previous reading of 96.5 in the month of July to an 89.1 print for August. Considerably disappointing, the current figure was expected to drop mildly to a 92.7 figure. Ultimately, consumers are now feeling the pressure of energy costs as it poses a tax on an individual’s disposable income. However, with job and wage growth still relatively strong, the full blown impact of higher costs may be dampened leaving the current reading a temporary thought.

...more...

[54anickel]

What the heck are these people smokin' anyway? Saving will increase?

MI Consumer Survey up to 80.0? Expansion coming cuz wage and job growth is on the rise - but didn't they just say people were going to cut back on spending and save? :crazy:

[ozymandius]

38. Everyone gets a pony too.

Looks like the forecasters are looking to have it both ways: spending and savings. I do not know where they think this money is going to come from.

[AnneD]

47. Whadayamean I ain't got no money...

I still have plenty a checks....Maybe if they print more we can all save more. Sounds like a *co plan to me.

[TrogL]

114. I'm out of cheques

Can I have some of yours?

[spotbird]

82. They must not do the grocery shopping

it is stunning, I'd bet prices here are up 20% in the past two weeks.

Save what?

[54anickel]

78. Gold struggles in early NY as quarter ends

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticleSearch.aspx?storyID=171072+30-Sep-2005+RTRS&srch=gold

NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Gold was under pressure early Friday, with quarter-end squaring and easier oil prices helping cool it off in front of 18-year highs, but silver retained its shine in morning trade.

The benchmark December gold contract at the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, traded on either side of the breakeven level, and at 10:50 a.m. EDT (1450 GMT) was off 50 cents at $475.30 an ounce, having touched $477.80 and $473.90.

snip>

"It looks like good fund buying here. In silver there might have been some trade buying also," said a floor broker. "It looks like every time it comes off, you get fund buying and small specs looking to buy dips -- locals and ones, twos and five-lot guys who would trade for a day trade."

Some of inflation hedge trades in gold may have been taken off as oil prices declined 1 percent in morning trade, especially since many players will want to book profits at the end of the month.

But crude is still near the highs hit after hurricanes Katrina and Rita shut down production and refining in the Gulf of Mexico, promising higher energy costs as winter approaches in the northern hemisphere. Gold is seen tracking toward $500 until the specter of inflation goes away.

more...

[54anickel]

83. Buck achieving new lows

Last trade 89.07 Change -0.33 (-0.37%)

Settle 89.40 Settle Time 23:36

Open 89.36 Previous Close 89.40

High 89.69 Low 89.06

Last tick: 2005-09-30 11:33:15 ET

[UpInArms]

100. Dollar slips in quarter end profit-taking

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-30T170954Z_01_N30469370_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-8.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The dollar was lower against most major currencies on Friday, except for the Japanese yen, as end-of-quarter book squaring and profit taking on the rally this week offset a rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields.

A fall in U.S. August consumer income and spending and a tumble in September consumer confidence also weighed on the dollar, despite a rise in September Midwest business activity in data published Friday.

"It's maybe slightly negative for the dollar," said Steven Englander, chief currency strategist, Americas, with Barclays Capital in New York, of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and the earlier reported fall in U.S. spending.

"The market's still focused on why the dollar can't sustain a break below $1.20 in the euro. The market's a little frustrated and may be thinking about going in the other direction and seeing how much (euro) upside there is," Englander added.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. Great 'toon, Ozy!

:rofl:

The only thing that would have made me laugh more would have been to have alligators and sharks circling that "ship of fools" :D

:hi:

[ozymandius]

28. One thing I miss about Oliphant is his edge.

:sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

7. Ebbers asks court to overturn convictions

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-30T011631Z_01_DIT977737_RTRUKOC_0_US-CRIME-EBBERS.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ex-WorldCom chief Bernard Ebbers' fraud and conspiracy convictions should be overturned because his trial was "fundamentally flawed," his lawyers argued in papers filed with a federal appeals court on Thursday.

His lawyers urged the Second Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals to set aside the guilty verdicts, saying a lower court should have forced the government to grant immunity to several prospective defense witnesses and also made two other significant mistakes.

Ebbers, 64, was found guilty in March of orchestrating an $11 billion accounting fraud that drove WorldCom into bankruptcy. He was sentenced to 25 years in prison, but remains free on bail while he pursues an appeal.

In the 96-page brief, his lawyers said the court wrongly instructed the jury that it could convict Ebbers on the basis of so-called "conscious avoidance" of knowledge of the fraud at WorldCom.

His lawyers also said that while all of the charges were "directly predicated on allegedly fraudulent accounting entries in WorldCom's financial statements," the jury was improperly permitted to vote for a conviction even if the telecommunications company's underlying accounting entries fully complied with applicable accounting standards.

...more...

:nopity:

[54anickel]

37. Cry me a river Bernie, geez these people really believe they do no

wrong. Yeah sure the numbers were bogus and all, but they fully complied with accounting standards. What's the problem. :eyes:

edit cuz I can't type

[ozymandius]

126. He probably found out who his cellmate is going to be.

[UpInArms]

8. Today's Reports:

Date	Time (ET)	Statistic		For	ActualForecast	Market Prior	Revised 

Sep 30	8:30 AM		Personal Income		Aug	-	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	-	
Sep 30	8:30 AM		Personal Spending	Aug	-	-0.4%	-0.2%	1.0%	-	
Sep 30	9:45 AM		Mich Sentiment-Rev.	Sep	-	76.9	78.0	76.9	-	
Sep 30	10:00 AM	Chicago PMI		Sep	-	53.0	52.0	49.2	-

[UpInArms]

18. (BAD) Reports tumbling in:

8:30am 09/30/05 U.S. AUG. DISPOSABLE INCOME DOWN 0.1%

8:30am 09/30/05 U.S. AUG. SAVINGS RATE RISES TO -0.7% FROM -1.1% IN JULY

8:30am 09/30/05 U.S. AUG. CORE INFLATION UP 2.0% YR-ON-YR VS REV 1.9% JULY

8:30am 09/30/05 U.S. AUG. CORE INFLATION RATE UP 0.2%

8:30am 09/30/05 U.S. AUG. PERSONAL INCOME, EX-KATRINA, UP 0.2%

8:30am 09/30/05 U.S. AUG. PERSONAL INCOME DOWN 0.1% VS UP 0.3% EXPECTED

8:30am 09/30/05 U.S. AUG. CONSUMER SPENDING DOWN 0.5% VS. DOWN 0.2% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

19. U.S. Aug. consumer spending down 0.5%, incomes down 0.1%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38625.3542478125-844504339&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer spending and income both declined in August, the Commerce Department said Friday. Personal income fell 0.1%, the largest drop since January. Excluding the impact of Hurricane Katrina, income would have risen 0.2%. Consumer spending fell 0.5%, the biggest drop since Nov. 2001. Economists were expecting incomes to rise 0.3% and for consumer spending to fall 0.2%, according to a MarketWatch survey. The personal savings rate rose to -0.7%, from a revised record low -1.1% in July. Core inflation is up 2.0% in the past 12 months.

[UpInArms]

21. more info:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB28D52DF%2D8EC9%2D430E%2D9A56%2D53BC8471F82C%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

Consumer spending fell 0.5% in August, which is the biggest drop since November 2001.

Economists were expecting incomes to rise 0.3% in August, with spending expected to fall 0.2%. See Economic Calendar.

<snip>

The drop in spending in August was largely due to spending on durable goods, which fell 8.9%.

Read (sic) consumer spending (adjusted for inflation) decreased by 1.0% for August, the largest drop since 9/11.

...more...

[54anickel]

77. U.S. August Personal Spending Falls 0.5%; Incomes Drop 0.1%

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a8ODacamitqI&refer=home

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer spending fell in August by the most in more than three years, led by a slump in automobile purchases, and may keep dropping as Americans pay record gasoline prices in the wake of the hurricanes. Incomes unexpectedly dropped because of uninsured property losses after Hurricane Katrina.

The 0.5 percent decline in spending followed a revised 1.2 percent gain in July, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The drop in spending was the biggest since May 2002. Incomes fell 0.1 percent, the first decline since January, after a 0.3 percent increase the previous month.

Uninsured property losses from Katrina reduced personal income by about $100 billion, Commerce said. The slump in spending may spread beyond autos this month as Americans forgo nonessential purchases, such as visiting restaurants or buying clothes, to pay soaring fuel bills, economists said. Consumer confidence fell by the most in 15 years this month after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast and pushed gasoline prices to a record.

``There is going to be a very significant hit to real incomes over the next few months as you approach the heating season,'' said Robert Mellman, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in New York, before the report. ``With energy prices as high as they are, there is a bit more concern as to whether spending will even bounce back as soon as the first quarter.''

snip>

Savings Rate

The savings rate weighs current income from wages, salaries, dividends, businesses and government payments against spending. It doesn't take into account borrowed money, income from investments or rising home prices. Increasing wealth from rising home values and higher stock prices has added to incomes and supported spending.

There's that reversed money flow again. Seems economists consider this a good thing - must be yet another part of the new economy.

So if hurricane losses cut into personal income, what will a bursting of the real estate bubble do? :shrug:

more...

[UpInArms]

130. BBC: US consumers reel at fuel hikes

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4297846.stm

The US economy is feeling the twin impact of soaring energy prices and Hurricane Katrina, with both consumer spending and confidence falling.

Consumer spending fell 0.5% in August - the largest monthly fall in nearly four years - reflecting the recent rise in gasoline and domestic fuel prices.

Gasoline climbed above $3 a gallon for the first time after Hurricane Katrina.

And the government estimated that the hurricane destroyed uninsured property worth $100bn in four Southern states.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence, as surveyed by the University of Michigan, dropped by more than expected in September.

The index of consumer sentiment dropped to 76.9 in September, from 89.1 in August, the biggest drop in two years.

...more...

[RawMaterials]

26. am i reading this wrong

but if saving rate changes from -.07% to -1.1% wouldn't that
mean its falling not rising??

[UpInArms]

29. Here's how they calculate that number:

The personal saving rate mentioned in the financial press is personal saving divided by disposable personal income.

It appears that we (the US) still have a negative savings rate, just not as negative as it was last month.

Here's an interesting article:

http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2005/c/pages/saving_crisis.html

[54anickel]

45. And disposable income is down. Guess the best way to fix that issue

is to change how it's calculated in this "new economy" and it's "wealth effect". :eyes:

[JNelson6563]

64. Look at it this way

Better to be 70 cents in the hole than $1.10 in the hole.

Still in the hole though....

Julie

[TrogL]

115. no, it's not getting worse

It's rising closer to zero.

[UpInArms]

52. More "surprised" economists - UMich at 76.9

no improvement - they expected it up at 78

UMich Sept. sentiment remains at low level in late September

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38625.411177963-844507689&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer sentiment remained at low levels in late September, according to media reports Friday of proprietary research from the University of Michigan. The UMich consumer sentiment index was unchanged at 76.9 in late September, the same as the initial reading earlier in the month. Economists were expecting the index to rebound slightly, after falling sharply from the 89.1 level in August in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

9:47am 09/30/05 UMICH SEPT. SENTIMENT UNCHANGED AT 76.9: REPORT

9:47am 09/30/05 UMICH SEPT. SENTIMENT BELOW 89.1 IN AUGUST

[UpInArms]

54. U.S. consumer sentiment falls sharply in September

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-30T135110Z_01_N30458164_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CONSUMERS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment
worsened in September even more than economists had expected, a
report showed on Friday.

The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment
dropped to 76.9 in September, from 89.1 in August, but remained
unchanged from the preliminary reading in early September,
according to sources who saw the subscription-only report.

A Reuters poll projected a reading of 78.0.

The survey's expectations component fell to 63.3 from 76.9
in August, while the index of current conditions dropped to
98.1 from 108.2 in August.

Confidence measures are used as an indicator of consumer
spending, which makes up about two-thirds of overall U.S.
economic activity and is used as a gauge of economic growth.

[ozymandius]

133. When do we call the coroner?

I don't know too much about how this index is compiled. But it seems that if we keep losing ground on consumer confidence, the life's blood of consumer spending, then we're headed toward a dead end in economic growth. Anyone care to explain?

[UpInArms]

135. McCoy: "He's dead, Jim."

Kirk: "Bones, do something!"

McCoy: "Sorry, Jim, there isn’t anything I can do."

KirK: "Why?"

McCoy: "Because he’s dead."

Kirk: "How do you know he’s dead?"

McCoy: "Because there’s nothing I can do."

Kirk: "Because he’s dead?"

McCoy: "That’s right."

Kirk: "But I was talking to him just one minute ago!"

McCoy: "Dammit Jim, I'm a doctor not a spiritual medium! I can't bring back the dead anymore than I can cure a common cold."

Spock: "Doctor, we could take him back to the ship, dissolve any blood clots, restore circulation, and restore homeostasis by molecular repair. He could fully resume duty within days."

McCoy: "Spock, leave doctoring to doctors! What this man needs is a decent burial."

[UpInArms]

56. WHEE! We're Saved! Chicago PMI waaaaay up!

10:01am 09/30/05 SEPT. CHICAGO PMI 60.5% VS. 50.6% EXPECTED

Will find details later - have to run for now :hi:

[UpInArms]

65. more info:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-30T143058Z_01_N30302684_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MIDWEST-UPDATE-1.XML

excerpt:

"It certainly suggests that the storms' impact was temporary, as the Fed and others had suggested," said Rick Egelton, chief economist at BMO Financial Group in Toronto.

New orders raced to 63.4 from 46.5 in August, and the order backlog rose to 54.3 from 45.7 last month.

Katrina "ironically may have had a positive effect on this index because of the big surge in new orders and, to a lesser extent, production," said Cary Leahey, senior managing director at Decision Economics.

The employment component of the index fell to 48.4 from 51.7 in August, suggesting hiring in the Chicago region might have hit a roadblock. Prices paid jumped to 76.3 from 62.9 as prices for fuel and other raw materials stayed high.

Many view the NAPM-Chicago as an industrial indicator, even though service sector companies are also polled, because the Chicago region, including parts of surrounding states, is relatively industrialized.

...more...

[54anickel]

76. Manufacturing rebound limits stock losses

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/Articles/Dispatches/P131294.asp

The Chicago purchasing manager's index posts a much bigger gain than anticipated. Personal spending sinks in August after a car-buying frenzy in July. FTC gives P&G the OK to buy G.


Manufacturing in the Midwest bounced back in September from a weak August, helping keep the broader market barely lower in early trading.

snip>

The September Chicago purchasing manager's index rose to 60.5 from 49.2 in August. Economists were predicting a much tamer rise to 52. And the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for September remained the same as its preliminary measure at 76.9.

"Chicago PMI, it was certainly a huge rebound in the index," Rick Egelton, chief economist at BMO Financial Group, told Reuters. "It can be a volatile number, and we have to bear that in mind, but it certainly suggests that the storms' impact was temporary, as the Fed and others had expected. It is a testament to the underlying strength of the economy going into the hurricanes."

[AnneD]

93. LOL LOL LOL

the graphic makes the report 54anickle.

[UpInArms]

9. Low U.S. inflation may be partly luck--Fed's Kohn

(perhaps we should all just try our "luck" by buying Lotto tickets?)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-29T232921Z_01_N29510798_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-KOHN.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The low level of U.S. inflation may reflect luck and structural economic change, not just good monetary policy, Federal Reserve Governor Donald Kohn said on Thursday as he called for work on improving inflation models.

"Luck as well as structural changes in the economy may have had a lot to do with the current low level and apparent stability of U.S. inflation," Kohn said in remarks prepared for delivery to a Fed-hosted conference on inflation dynamics.

"If so, and if our luck turns and we experience a series of adverse shocks, our ability to formulate policies that deliver sound performance may depend upon a much better understanding of the inflation process," he added.

"Even if it is true that things tend to turn out OK on average under the present state of knowledge, macroeconomic performance could be better yet if policy-makers were able to take advantage of a fuller understanding of the dynamics of the economy," Kohn said.

...more...

[54anickel]

48. In other words...

We don't have a F'ing clue what we're doing

[UpInArms]

10. After the Bell yesterday: Bassett to close plant and layoff 300

8:27pm 09/29/05 BASSETT TO RECORD Q4 10C-16C CHARGE RELATED TO CLOSURE

8:26pm 09/29/05 BASSETT SEES $4M-$5M IN ANNUAL SAVINGS FROM CLOSURE

8:23pm 09/29/05 BASSETT FURNITURE TO MOVE SOME PRODUCTION TO VA. PLANT

8:22pm 09/29/05 BASSETT FURNITURE: 300 EMPLOYEES ARE 15% OF WORKFORCE

8:21pm 09/29/05 BASSETT FURNITURE TO CLOSE FACILITY IN NEXT 60 DAYS

8:22pm 09/29/05 BASSETT FURNITURE PLANT CLOSURE TO AFFECT 300 WORKERS

8:20pm 09/29/05 BASSETT FURNITURE TO CLOSE MOUNT AIRY, N.C. FACILITY

[UpInArms]

11. Rita Ripples: Hurricane forces 200 layoffs at Acushnet Co.

http://www.southcoasttoday.com/daily/09-05/09-30-05/a01lo969.htm

NEW BEDFORD -- Call it a Category Fore: More than 200 Acushnet Co. employees were laid off this week because Hurricane Rita cut off the supply of a key raw material used in golf ball production.

The layoffs were announced beginning Wednesday evening in Ball Plant II, where production of Pinnacle balls has been curtailed, company Chairman and CEO Wally Uihlein told The Standard-Times yesterday.

The available supply of Surlyn, a tough, oil-derived thermoplastic made by DuPont on the Gulf Coast and used mainly as ball cover material, has been diverted entirely to production of premium lines. They are Titleist V1 and Titleist V1x balls made at Ball Plant III, and Titleist NXT Tour and Titleist DT Solo balls at Ball Plant II, where the Pinnacle interruption is cutting total production by 60 percent.

Both plants are in the New Bedford Business Park.

Acushnet Co. officials indicated that the layoffs will be temporary, but did not say how long it will be until workers are brought back.

DuPont, said Herb Boehn, Acushnet Co. executive vice president and general manager for golf ball operations, is still trying to assess the extensive damage caused by the Sept. 22 storm at its plant in Orange, Texas.

...more...

"No impact" :rofl:

[UpInArms]

12. James River suspends property insurance biz after Katrina

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38625.3256028819-844503464&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Insurance firm James River Group Inc. (JRVR) on Friday increased its estimate for Hurricane Katrina losses to $14-$16 million, or $1-$1.18 a share. While the company believes it has "sufficient financial flexibility to withstand these losses" and to support growth in its casualty business, James River Group does not expect to meet its previously announced targets for underwriting profit or for return on equity for 2005. The company is suspending its underwriting activity in the property market, "until we are convinced that there is an opportunity to make consistent underwriting profits in this area." James River sees "a significant opportunity" in the casualty market, where it will focus its attention. Shares rose 16 cents to $20.25 on Thursday.

[UpInArms]

13. pre-spin for the day:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-30T110352Z_01_N30444086_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS.XML

excerpt:

"We are bracing for a weaker opening with a slew of data being released," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst at SW Bach and Co. "Consumer confidence, inflation and of course, oil, will remain key indicators for the stock market."

Economists polled by Reuters expect the University of Michigan's final September reading for consumer sentiment at 9:45 a.m. (1345 GMT) to show a drop to 78 from August's final 89.1 after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, sending oil prices to record highs.

U.S. crude for November delivery rose 11 cents to to $66.90 a barrel. In recent days, stocks have closely tracked movements in crude oil futures as concerns mounted about the impact of high fuel costs on the economy following the recent hurricanes.

Another report may show an increase in the personal consumption expenditure index, a measure of inflation closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Higher inflation may lead the to additional interest rate hikes.

However, analysts said declines may be limited as portfolio managers tend to buy stocks ahead of the end of the third quarter.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Something's up at Citigroup

(?)

8:00am 09/30/05 CIT GROUP TO SELL $290M OF NONCORE ASSETS

8:02am 09/30/05 CIT GROUP SELLS STAKE IN NEW YORK WATERSIDE PLAZA

8:02am 09/30/05 CIT GROUP EXPECTS $115M PRETAX GAIN IN Q3 ON WATERSIDE SALE

8:03am 09/30/05 CIT GROUP SELLING $190M OF OLDER AIRCRAFT

8:04am 09/30/05 CIT ACCELERATES LIQUIDATION OF $100M OF HOUSING RECEIVABLES

[ozymandius]

31. Is there a story related to this?

Looks like there may be a liquidity crisis. And quarterly reports are looming.

[UpInArms]

34. can't find anything yet that gives any more info than just those

few line items.

Will keep watching.

[RawMaterials]

43. delete citigroup and cit group confusion

[UpInArms]

41. It does look like a liquidity crisis. Here's the story:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-30T124958Z_01_N30708168_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-CIT-UPDATE-1.XML

UPDATE 1-CIT Group to divest some noncore assets

NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - CIT Group Inc. (CIT.N: Quote, Profile, Research), one of the largest U.S. commercial and consumer finance companies, said on Friday it plans to divest some noncore assets, including a real estate investment and some aerospace and manufactured housing assets.

CIT said it initiated a program to sell approximately $190 million of old aircraft and it plans to accelerate the liquidation of approximately $100 million in manufactured housing receivables.

<snip>

Earlier this month, CIT said it had about $100 million of exposure to Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and $57 million to Northwest Airlines Corp. (NWAC.O: Quote, Profile, Research), but neither carrier's bankruptcy filing is expected to materially hurt its financial results.

...a bit more (fairly repetitive) at link...

If you believe that spin: neither carrier's bankruptcy filing is expected to materially hurt its financial results, I have some great swampland to sell you. :eyes:

[ozymandius]

44. Thanks! These corporations have created such an incestuous

culture that it seems like everyone has exposure to everyone.

[Birthmark]

66. Why would it hurt them?

They've got TRILLIONS in derivatives. They're stinkin' RICH!

:sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

89. Regulator-2nd qtr U.S. bank derivative activity up

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-30T155241Z_01_N30466651_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-DERIVATIVES.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks rose by $5.1 trillion to $96.2 trillion in the second quarter as low interest rates and spreads drove demand, a U.S. bank regulator said on Friday.

Credit derivatives rose $981 billion to $4.1 trillion, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

"Low worldwide interest rates and credit spreads have led to strong client demand for credit instruments, and the growth in notional volumes reflects that," said Kathryn Dick, deputy comptroller for risk evaluation.

She said the regulator was closely supervising banks to make sure they have the back-office infrastructure in place to support the growing credit derivatives market.

The notional amount of derivatives reflects business activity, but not the amount of risk at commercial banks, OCC said. Risk in a derivatives contract is a function of many variables, such as the volatility of interest rates used to determine contract payment.

One measure of credit risk in dealer portfolios -- current credit exposure, net of legally enforceable netting agreements -- increased by $2 billion to $200 billion at the end of the quarter, OCC reported.

...more...

[Birthmark]

108. $96 trillion dollars?!

Is the entire planet worth that much? Good lord! How'd you like to have to pay that bill?!

[UpInArms]

113. I wonder if the new bankruptcy laws will apply to the corporations?

:rofl:

[Birthmark]

118. Of course they will!

Anything else would be unfair... :crazy:

[UpInArms]

90. More Delta Exposure: Raymond James to take $4 mln charge on Delta lease

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-30T163529Z_01_N30464901_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-RAYMONDJAMES-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said it would take a $4 million charge this quarter after further writing down an investment in an aircraft lease with the now-bankrupt Delta Air Lines (DAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

Earlier this month, Delta filed to reorganize in bankruptcy after struggling for several years with soaring oil prices and low-cost competition. The airline filed for bankruptcy with $21.6 billion of assets.

Raymond James' shares fell 2 cents to $31.95 in early afternoon New York Stock Exchange trade. The brokerage's earnings for the year ended Sept. 24, 2004, were $127.6 million, significantly larger than a $4 million charge this quarter.

Raymond James said it also has an $11.8 million lease with Continental Airlines (CAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which has not been late with any payments on it. But given the airline industry's difficulties, the brokerage said it is keeping a close eye on the matter.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. No easy fix for Rita-damaged oil works

http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/30/news/economy/hurricane_repairs/

Report: Problems getting workers, helicopters, equipment slowing repairs to offshore production.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Getting off-shore oil and natural gas platforms back in service after two Gulf of Mexico hurricanes is proving difficult, according to a published report Friday.

The Wall Street Journal reported that efforts to restart facilities a week after Hurricane Rita blew through the area are being hampered by a lack of sufficient workers, helicopters and equipment.

The federal Minerals Management Service reported Thursday that about 99 percent of oil production in the Gulf, or about 1.5 million daily barrels, remains shut down, while about 80 percent of natural-gas production, or nearly 8 billion cubic feet of gas a day, remains shut.

Much of that was taken offline as a precaution before Rita hit. Still, production returned much faster immediately following Katrina last month and Hurricane Ivan last year, the Journal reports.

"A lot of dock facilities that boats would leave from are gone. Hangars are messed up. Helicopter availability is tight," Tony Lentini, a spokesman for the Houston-based exploration company Apache Corp., told the paper.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Fuel costs soar

http://www.thedailytimes.com/sited/story/html/218836

excerpt:

The AAA Fuel Gauge Report Thursday evening described the price upturn as ``sudden and shocking.''

Knoxville area ``prices jumped from around $2.889 and $2.899 to $3.299 in a matter of hours'' Thursday morning, according to AAA.

Wright and McNutt estimated the gasoline market would stabilize within the next two weeks, though McNutt said she was not sure how low gas prices would go.

``I don't think we'll see $1.29 (a gallon) again for a long time, if ever,'' McNutt said.

Crude oil prices rose Thursday on worries over the laggard pace at which the Gulf Coast's refineries, pipelines and rigs are recovering from hurricanes Rita and Katrina.

...more...

[54anickel]

53. So why not use Shrub's chopper? Wouldn't this be close enough to

a national emergency to call in the National Guard? Oh, maybe not - gas hasn't hit $5 a gallon and we don't have old ladies freezing to death - yet.

[AnneD]

58. Did you get that...

99% of oil production and 80% of natural gas is shut down. We will be having to import more (to working refinery capacity)to cover our butts. Many workers live in LA, MIS, and TX. If you can't rebuild these areas--these workers can't come back. These areas shouldn't be rebuilt exclusively for the well to do, with housing so costly the average rig hand can't live nearby. After all they are the ones that are producing a product that generates real wealth-not a paper commodity that generates paper wealth.

[54anickel]

61. Developers tend ot overlook affordable housing for the working class -

although the need has actually been getting some play - be it on public broadcasting. Guess it will depend on which firm gets the city planning and development contract. With all the cronyism going on, I don't have a lot of hope at this point. Probably end up permanently in one of those emergency trailer parks or something. Or they'll locate it so damned far from where the jobs are and forget to provide transit.

Speaking of those emergency trailer parks - did you catch this article regarding Punta Gorda, FL? Looks like those folks might be getting evicted come February. I saved this article for my S-i-L, as she has a little winter place down there. They just bought it in the spring of '04 - trailer was wiped out by Charlie later that year. Luckily they had decent insurance to replace it. She said if it gets hit again they're outta there. Not a good experience for your first year of "snowbirding".

FEMA's City of Anxiety in Florida
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/16/AR2005091601922.html

[UpInArms]

17. US junk bond funds report $1.3 bln outflow in week

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-30T122201Z_01_N30450888_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-JUNK-AMG-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - U.S. junk bond mutual funds reported $1.3 billion of net outflows in the week ended Wednesday, the biggest outflow since March, AMG Data reported late on Thursday.

It was the third straight week of outflows from the funds and followed a $329 million outflow the prior week. Year-to-date, investors have pulled a net $9.6 billion out of the funds.

Junk bonds, which lack investment-grade ratings, have posted average losses of nearly 1 percent this month, according to Merrill Lynch, as concerns about the economy, troubles in the auto sector and surging energy prices curbed demand for riskier assets.

[UpInArms]

20. Omnicare to close 17 facilities; cut workforce by 3.7% (740 jobs)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38625.3518716435-844504260&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Omnicare Inc. (OCR) Friday said it plans to close 17 facilities, and reduce its workforce by about 3.7% as part of a previously disclosed restructuring plan. The company said its workforce stood at 20,000 as of August 31. The Covington, Ky., company expects to record a restructuring charge of $20 million, pre-tax, from the plan. The provider of long-term care and pharmacy services for the elderly anticipates 93% of the job cuts will come from its pharmacy operations. The stock closed Thursday at $56.20, up 15 cents.

[UpInArms]

22. CNN: What happened at Bayou

(no mention of the Bush family connection, but... check out this MO)

http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/29/markets/bayou_investors/

excerpt:

But what's interesting about Bayou, particularly when compared to other famous hedge fund blowups, is that a handful of big investors got burned, including some funds that invest in hedge funds on behalf of clients, so-called funds of funds.

<snip>

"The trick here is you had a guy who was purportedly producing these nice returns. The accounting thing is hard to overlook," he said, referring to the creation of the bogus accounting firm. Most institutional investors demand audited returns from hedge funds and look for a well-known auditor's name on the work.

Shain said after his firm's investigation of Israel and Bayou, "we ended up with more questions than answers." Israel's resume was filled with platitudes and generalities about years of trading but was short on specifics, according to Shain.

And a little legwork revealed that Israel often exaggerated his experience -- including claiming to be a head trader at respected hedge fund Omega Advisors when in reality he held more of an administrative role, according to Shain. Israel also exaggerated how long he worked at Omega, he said.

<snip>

But Shain, who has never met Israel, suspects that Israel oozed charm and projected a folksy image -- a common trait among successful hucksters, he said.

...more...

[54anickel]

55. Oh yeah! That's a great line, I'll remember that one for discussions

with the in-laws this holiday season - funny thing about them in-laws - suddenly a lot of them didn't really vote for BeelzeBush!

oozed charm and projected a folksy image -- a common trait among successful hucksters

[AnneD]

121. Dubya will become the new Nixon

no one will admit voting for him yet he 'won' by 51%. (I disput that).

[UpInArms]

70. John Ellis (Bush's Cousin) promoted Bayou Hedge Fund

http://johnellis.blogspot.com/2003_12_01_johnellis_archive.html

This blog is about business, technology,the war on terror, politics, media, genomics and other subjects of interest. I've written about these subjects as a columnist for The Boston Globe, Inside Magazine and Fast Company Magazine and as a contributor to The Wall Street Journal's op-ed and Taste pages. I now am a contributing columnist for Tech Central Station (www.techcentralstation.com). Welcome. You can reach me at: [e-mail]

Wednesday, December 31, 2003

excerpt:

Best Comeback: Rush Limbaugh.
Best Lawyer: Roy Black.
Best Hedge Fund: Bayou.


// posted by John @ 12/30/2003 08:22:08 PM

(added bio info on edit)

[UpInArms]

23. Following the Corporate Investment dollars- going to China

http://www.financialexpress.com/latest_full_story.php?content_id=104173

UNITED NATIONS, SEPTEMBER 30: Corporate foreign investment worldwide rose by two percent last year, the first increase since 2000, as more companies set up research and development units in India, China and other developing nations, a United Nations report said.

The 332-page World Investment Report 2005 said investment in developing nations from outside increased by 40 percent in 2004, offsetting a 14 percent decrease in capital flows to Germany, France, Spain and other industrialised nations from foreign sources.

<snip>

Foreign direct investment reached 648 billion dollars in 2004, including 233 billion dollars that was the second highest amount that has ever gone to developing nations, the UN said.

<snip>

The UN said that since Motorola established the first foreign research and development lab in China in 1993, the number of units there has increased to more than 700.

<snip>

``The continued need of firms to improve their competitiveness by expanding into new markets, reducing costs and accessing natural resources and strategic assets abroad provides strong incentives for further FDI in developing countries,'' the report said.

...more at link...

[54anickel]

86. UK overtakes China as FDI destination

I'm sure China is more than happy to be the recipient of all the R&D units though. That's where the future lies - not in M&As.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/886f1d34-314f-11da-ac1b-00000e2511c8.html

The UK attracted more foreign direct investment than China last year, becoming the world's second-largest FDI recipient after the US, a United Nations study showed yesterday.

snip>

UK inflows were boosted by some hefty cross-border mergers and acquisitions, notably the $16bn purchase of Abbey National by Santander Central Hispano, Spain's largest bank, which turned out to be the world's biggest international M&A deal last year.

The acquisition of UK-based Amersham by General Electric of the US for $9.6bn was the fourth biggest takeover worldwide, and eight other British companies were bought for $1bn or more.

FDI inflows to the US rose from $57bn in 2003 to $96bn in 2004, while flows to China increased from $54bn to $61bn.

The big upward revision in US inflows for 2003, originally estimated at just $30bn, also shows that, contrary to earlier reports, the US has never ceded its lead to China as an investment destination.

more...

[UpInArms]

24. Treasurys tugged in two directions by income, inflation data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38625.3653359144-844505019&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The benchmark 10-year Treasury note moved lower in price in the immediate wake of a report that showed an increase in a key measure of inflation released alongside monthly income and spending figures. But the report also showed a post-Katrina slump in income and spending, which tempered some of the impact of the inflation reading. The Fed's concerns about inflation have been well-telegraphed this week, leading the bond market to assume the central bank isn't done raising interest rates. At last check, the 10-year note was up 2/32, or some 63 cents per each $1,000 in securities at face value, at 99 22/32. Its yield ($TNX) rose to 4.29% vs. 4.3% Thursday.

[54anickel]

81. Fed official expects rebound after hurricanes

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/c88e7cec-3119-11da-ac1b-00000e2511c8.html

The Federal Reserve needs to continue raising rates in order to remove unnecessarily accommodative monetary conditions but also to demonstrate its “unwavering commitment” to maintaining stable inflation, a top Federal Reserve official said.


Anthony Santomero, president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, said the economy was likely to bounce back after the disruption caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita, with stronger-than-expected growth next year on a boost from reconstruction and government spending.

High oil prices would boost headline inflation, and contribute to higher core inflation, he said. “The reality is that if you have less slack, then you have more potential for firms to pass on or to try and pass on increased costs in prices. “The challenge for us as a central bank is to maintain price stability and maintain our commitment to price stability so that people recognise that this is an adjustment in the price level of an important commodity, but it is not an adjustment in the inflation rate,” he said.

The Fed had a dual mandate, he said: to oversee price stability and potential growth “in that order”.

more...

[UpInArms]

98. Treasurys on pace for worst quarter in over a year

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B57A76F05%2DC9E6%2D49EA%2DB82B%2DF03958C59C74%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - After a morning of fits and starts, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note had settled into lower trade by Friday afternoon, with the same theme resounding in the bond market throughout the week - inflation.

The government bond market was on course to close out its worst quarter in more than a year.

<snip>

The bond market is on course to put its third losing week in four on the books at Friday's close, which ends the third quarter. The 10-year yield last week closed at 4.25% as prices fell. The benchmark yield was at 3.94% at the end of the second quarter.

Treasurys lost around 0.9% in the third quarter, according to a Merrill Lynch & Co. index. That's the worst return since a more than 3% drop in the second quarter of 2004 and marks a sharp reversal from last quarter's more than 3.5% increase. Last quarter's was the best performance in nearly three years

...more...

[RawMaterials]

25. Mortgage rates jump to 5-month high

WASHINGTON - Rates on 30-year mortgages jumped this week to the highest level in five months, reflecting financial market anxieties about inflation.

Mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the nationwide average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages rose this week to 5.91 percent, up from 5.80 percent last week. It was the third consecutive weekly increase and pushed the 30-year rate to its highest level since mid-April, when it was also 5.91 percent.

The increase followed the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to boost a key short-term interest rate for an 11th time as central bank policy-makers focused more on the inflationary threats of rising oil prices than risks to economic growth from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

snip..

“This past week’s increase in mortgage rates reflects market anxieties over inflationary pressures, energy price increases and slipping consumer confidence,” Nothaft said. “Taken together these developments suggest less personal spending during the later quarter of the year and additional upward pressure on mortgage rates.”





http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7148582/

[RawMaterials]

27. Get ready for the demise of pensions

The latest airline bankruptcies offer more evidence that our system of private pensions is crumbling.

It's inevitable that Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines will argue to their bankruptcy judge that they must jettison their pension obligations onto the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., the public's insurer.

Then, American Airlines and Continental – the only two carriers that offer pensions and aren't in bankruptcy – will say that they have no intention of doing the same, but that it sure is unfair for them to have this burden while their competitors don't.

And eventually, every airline will be like Southwest and won't offer a pension plan.

That's just the way it will be.

More disincentive

Meanwhile, to cover the shortfalls caused by this rush, pension providers soon may have to pay more into the insurance fund. That would be further disincentive for companies offering pensions to 40-odd million Americans.

Yet another disincentive looms.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board dictates the way corporate America keeps its books. In a long-overdue act, the FASB is expected to add pension reform to its agenda this fall.

The reason for the extended delay is self-preservation. The FASB likes being around.

Lobbyists for the corporations that treasure their legal right to obfuscate the health of their pensions could make life very difficult for the standards board. (Recall that the battle over stock options expensing nearly killed the FASB.)

The FASB could propose doing something radical – such as requiring companies to show the market value of pension assets and the future costs of pension obligations on their balance sheets.

It may come as a surprise to know that these hard promises have always been kept off the balance sheet.

The reason it happens gets to the heart of why Enron failed to reflect all its debts on its books – the truth would have revealed the company for what it really was, an unattractive investment.

The fact is, pension accounting reform is the right thing to do.

Plans down the drain?

But Credit Suisse First Boston accounting analyst David Zion predicts it will toss many a retiree into the cold.

"A big change in pension accounting could be the tipping point that sparks significant changes in behavior by companies that sponsor defined-benefit pension plans," he wrote recently.

These changes include a shift in assets – probably to bonds – plan restructurings, more plans being frozen or all-out dumping of plans.

The good news for workers is that these battles typically drag on for years.

That should give soon-to-be retirees a chance to take advantage of accelerated contributions to new retirement plans, such as Individual Retirement Accounts, before employers shutter their pension plans.



http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/columnists/all/stories/DN-dimartino_29bus.ART.State.Edition1.17c1d798.html

this is outrageous :puke:

[54anickel]

59. Oh yeah, those catch up contributions for those 50 and older will

really make a dent in the loss of an entire pension. Thank goodness Congress had the foresight to enact it. :sarcasm:

http://www.401khelpcenter.com/mpower/feature_040402.html

And don't forget to bump up your Roth contribution as well.
http://www.statefarm.com/lifevents/reroth.htm

Where you're gonna invest it in this day and age when your already over 50 and should be reducing you risk is a crap shoot. Ziplock baggies anyone?

[AnneD]

63. This would not have been a problem...

If these 'leaders' had not been under funding the pensions to add to their bottom line. Their new trick is to use bankruptcy and the federal government to shore up their bottom line. As long as Congress doesn't have the balls to put the American worker's pension funds at the front of the creditors line in bankruptcy courts, we will continue to see this. It is a tempting solutions solutions for these sorry assed 'Captians of Industry'. Golden parachutes for them, golden shafts for everyone else. Oh, and that raiding the pension fund to improve the bottom line goes for Social Security too.

[54anickel]

72. Castrating organized labor didn't help in the matter either. The Repukes

have been patiently chiseling away since St. Ronnie's days at the working class.

It was interesting to see the strength labor had in India yesterday. I found it rather odd that the first story I could find on it linked to a Chinese news site. I thought China had a pretty tight grip on the information allowed to flow there. So, did they want the Chinese people to understand the power of organized labor?

So, back to that headline from earlier this week - is China's Hu a conservative or a closet liberal/socialist/commie? :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

75. Speaking of - Indian GDP Growth Accelerates to 8.1%, Tops Forecasts

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=afbX3Qq1Q3as&refer=top_world_news

snip>

Gross domestic product in Asia's fourth-largest economy expanded 8.1 percent in the three months ended June 30 from a year earlier, the Central Statistical Organisation said in New Delhi today. The expansion, led by an 11.3 percent gain in manufacturing, was the fastest in five quarters and beat the estimates of all nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Borrowing costs close to three-decade lows and rising wages encouraged more consumers to buy cars, houses and goods in the world's second-fastest-growing major economy behind China. The spending has boosted profits at companies such as automaker Mahindra & Mahindra, lifting the benchmark Sensitive stock index 30 percent this year. The government is targeting more than 7 percent annual growth for the next decade.

``A lot of companies are expanding capacity to meet rising demand,'' said Shuchita Mehta, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Mumbai. ``We see the current growth momentum'' continuing for the rest of the financial year ending March 31.

snip>

Growth, Income

India's growth has averaged 6.3 percent in the decade ended March 31, 2004, the fastest since independence from Britain in 1947, helping double the nation's per capita income to 20,862 rupees ($474) in the same period, government data shows.

more...

[lovuian]

103. Yes India is SOCIALIST!!! and the Unions are powerful there!!!

I am laughing at the corporations leaving capitalistic America and promoting Socialistic India... This will eventually take the corporations down!!! Outsourcing is going to majorly backfire!!!

Sitting back and watching the self destruction!!! as the Indians wages move up then our jobs will go up also!!! The Unions are strong in India!!!

[UpInArms]

67. Delphi jumps; WSJ says co. has warned pension holders

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38625.4428580787-844509823&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Delphi Corp. (DPH) shares rallied 59 cents, or 23.4%, to $3.11 in early action on Friday. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the company has sent a letter to its unionized pension holders telling them that their pensions may be at risk. The article cited undisclosed Wall Street analysts for the revelation. The WSJ also said Delphi is nearing a breach of certain debt-to-earnings agreements with its bank lenders as it compiles its end-of-quarter figures. A Delphi spokesperson told the newspaper the company had nothing to disclose.

[ozymandius]

30. Katrina, High Energy Prices Hit Pocketbooks

WASHINGTON - Hurricane Katrina caused $100 billion in uninsured losses in August while consumer spending plunged by the largest amount since the September 2001 terrorist attacks, the government reported Friday.

Because of the devastation along the Gulf Coast, personal incomes fell by 0.1 percent in August, the
Commerce Department reported. Incomes would have risen by 0.2 percent had it not been for the hurricane.

In another worrisome sign for the economy, consumer spending, after adjusting for inflation, plunged by 1 percent in August, the biggest decline since September 2001, as consumers pinched by soaring gasoline prices cut back in spending in other areas.

The sharp drop in spending raises concerns about consumers' staying power in the face of soaring energy bills. Consumer spending is closely watched because it accounts for two-thirds of the economy.

more

[AnneD]

71. Ozy

consumer spending may be 2/3 the economy, but they sure cheer loud when companies lay off workers to 'improve' the bottom line. DUH.
I truly think consumers are tapped out and the Dec credit statements and gas and heating bills will send consumer spending in to riger mortis. Just call me the unsuprised economist.

[54anickel]

73. But Ozy, just yesterday they said that (once again) corporate expeditures

are expected to rise as consumers take a break. The baton will be passed onto the corporations - for real this time. :eyes:

Surprised ecomomists and analysts? My ass! They are a bunch of lying thieves blowing sunshine up everyone's ass.

[AnneD]

91. Truer words were never spoken...

If they aren't blowing smoke they're pumping sunshine. My evil twin can't wait for Dec, Jan, and Feb..... Hope you guys have battened down your hatches.

[ozymandius]

94. I can't wait to see what Halliburton buys me for Christmas. eom

[UpInArms]

102. Ozy, they've been "gifting" you for years now!

The estimated population of the United States is 297,305,729
so each citizen's share of this debt is $26,656.04

[AnneD]

124. Ozy

don't know what it is but I know it costs $26,654.04. (see post below)
Edited
Ooops above. Hope I get a decent cappicino maker.

[ozymandius]

125. I want a stocking filled with coal just to stay warm. eom

[AnneD]

139. Yeh...

that ought to be worth $26,654.04. Were you a bad boy this year...bad boys and girls get it for free (or they steal it)...

[UpInArms]

32. Is there a shake-up going on at Squal-Mart?

9:14am 09/30/05 WAL-MART: CASTRO-WRIGHT TO OVERSEE U.S. OPS, MERCHANDISING

9:13am 09/30/05 WAL-MART SAYS MIKE DUKE TO LEAD WAL-MART INTERNATIONAL

9:11am 09/30/05 WAL-MART NAMES WAL-MART USA CEO DUKE AS VICE CHAIRMAN

9:12am 09/30/05 WAL-MART: MENZER TO OVERSEE MAJOR FUNCTIONS OF U.S. BUSINESS

9:11am 09/30/05 WAL-MART NAMES INT'L DIVISION CEO MENZER VICE CHAIRMAN

9:10am 09/30/05 WAL-MART NAMES EDUARDO CASTRO-WRIGHT CEO WAL-MART USA

[UpInArms]

49. Wal-Mart outlines changes in management

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38625.399333669-844507015&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) outlined a number of management and organizational changes on Friday. John Menzer, president and CEO of Wal-Mart International, and Mike Duke, president and CEO of Wal-Mart Stores USA, have each been named vice chairman. Menzer will be responsible for major functions of the U.S. business, and Duke will oversee Wal-Mart's fastest growing division, Wal-Mart International. The world's largest retailer also named Eduardo Castro-Wright, chief operating officer of Wal-Mart Stores USA, as president and CEO of that division. He will report Menzer and oversee operations, merchandising, and marketing, among other duties, for U.S. Wal-Mart Stores, Supercenters and neighborhood markets.

[UpInArms]

92. Wal-Mart Stores names founder's son Jim Walton to board

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38625.5363533449-844513251&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) said Friday it has named Jim Walton, the youngest son of company founder Sam Walton, to the board. The retailer said Jim Walton fills the vacancy of his older brother, John Walton, who died in an aircraft accident earlier this year. Walton will continue as chairman and chief executive of Arvest Bank Group, a group of banks that operate in that Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri.

12:41pm 09/30/05 WAL-MART: JIM WALTON FILLS VACANCY LEFT BY JOHN WALTON

12:40pm 09/30/05 WAL-MART: JIM WALTON IS YOUNGEST SON OF FOUNDER SAM WALTON

12:39pm 09/30/05 WAL-MART STORES NAMES JIM WALTON TO BOARD

[ozymandius]

33. pre-open blather

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0.

9:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. The stage remains set for the cash market's lackluster open... A lack of news on the corporate front, as well as a virtually blank earnings calendar, may cause both buyers and sellers to stick near the sidelines in the early going. As today's session is the last of the calendar quarter, though, window dressing on the part of portflio managers may spark some added activity... Separately, futures trade across the energy complex is currently trending lower, with crude off $0.33/bbl and sporting a $66.46/bbl pricetag...

8:35AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Futures trade moves slightly lower following the first dose of economic data, indicating a flat to modestly lower start for stocks...... August personal income fell 0.1%, below expectations of a +0.3% rise, while personal spending declined 0.5% vs. the 0.2% decrease economists had forecasted. The Treasury market ticked slightly downward in the data's immediate aftermath, with the benchmark 10-year note (0/32) yielding 4.30%...

[ozymandius]

42. markets are open to take your money

9:30
Dow Intraday
Dow 10,536.30 -16.48 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,139.59 -1.63 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,226.51 -1.17 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 42.95 +0.06 (+0.14%)
NYSE Volume 36,357,000
Nasdaq Volume 33,746,000

[UpInArms]

51. 9:50 EST spikes to put your eyes out

(check that chart!

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 10,541.15 -11.63 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,140.64 -0.58 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,226.41 -1.27 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.294 +0.05 (+0.12%)

NYSE Volume 169,515,000
Nasdaq Volume 137,604,000

9:40AM: The equity market began the session on the downside... With the day's docket offering little catalysts to usher buyers to the table, traders may be awaiting the 10:00 ET Chicago PMI report before taking a more solid stance. The lack of news is, at the same time, a positive today, underpinning the fact that few Q3 profit warnings have been issued and leaving forecasts for 17 to 20% aggregate EPS growth amid the S&P 500 in tact. In addition, energy prices have eased today and are trading in relatively flat fashion...

Perhaps sparking some early bearishness, the market is digesting lower than expected reads on Aug. Katrina-affected personal income and spending. Income fell 0.1%, vs. 0.3% expected gain, but it was not a large or surprising drop. Personal spending fell 0.5%, impacted by auto sales' sharp fall from big numbers in June and July that produced 1% gains in spending. Utlimately, however, the data does not alter post-Katrina conclusions of a 0.5 to 1% hit to Q3 GDP.

[UpInArms]

46. Shake-up day? Vanguard taps SEC official Grabinet

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5BCC1CD6%2D3954%2D4BED%2D8556%2D4FBEDC2F885A%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- The head of the Securities and Exchange Commission's Philadelphia district office, Ari Grabinet, is leaving the agency to take a job at Vanguard Group.

Grabinet will head the Valley Forge, Penn., company's securities-regulation group, according to a statement released Thursday by the SEC.

Grabinet has served as SEC district administrator in Philadelphia since 2003.

[ozymandius]

50. No matter how bad it looks, the numbers will seldom reflect it.

9:47
Dow 10,530.88 -21.90 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,138.82 -2.40 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,226.02 -1.66 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 42.94 +0.05 (+0.12%)
NYSE Volume 149,126,000
Nasdaq Volume 119,900,000

Gotta run for an hour or so.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

57. 10:05 EST markets confused

Dow 10,535.98 -16.80 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,142.54 +1.32 (+0.06%)
S&P 500 1,226.21 -1.47 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.290 +0.01 (+0.02%)

NYSE Volume 279,724,000
Nasdaq Volume 236,275,000

[UpInArms]

68. SEC's Atkins calls for coordinated hedge-fund regulation

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38625.4441205556-844509950&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Regulators like the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve should help the Securities and Exchange Commission in its drive to oversee hedge funds, SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins said in a speech Thursday. Atkins said his agency will be stretched too thin after Feb. 1, when advisers must register with the agency. "We have neither the resources nor the expertise to oversee all of the potential new registrants," said Atkins, one of two commissioners who voted against the hedge fund rule. By February, he said, up to 1,260 new advisers could register with the SEC.

[54anickel]

74. Clash looming over credit derivatives backlog

They seem to be moving PDQ. Wonder if they're closer to the cliff than they are letting on.i/i]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/050929/fto092920051821251366.html?.v=1

Leading US and European investment banks are set to tell the New York Federal Reserve on Friday that they will take wide-ranging action on back-office backlogs in the fast-growing credit derivatives market.

In a formal letter they will pledge to eliminate "virtually all" their backlogs by June and adopt market practices aimed at standardising and automating future trades.

However, the proposals could set the stage for a clash between the banks and their lucrative hedge-fund customers. For, while regulators are pressing banks to improve back-office processes, they have no direct sway over lightly regulated hedge funds, in spite of their increasingly critical role in the credit derivatives world.

The move by the banks follows the unusual decision by the New York Fed to summon 14 leading banking groups, together with international regulators, to a meeting earlier this month to discuss the back-office problems.

snip>

Although big credit derivatives banks have signed up to adopt the ISDA protocol by October 24, only a handful of hedge funds have done so. The Managed Funds Association, a hedge fund industry group, has called parts of the protocol unworkable. "As it stands, the protocol could kill the market," said a person close to the hedge fund community.

more...

[54anickel]

69. Artificial allocation of resources is unsustainable

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=47028

snip>

The present situation includes artificial and massive intervention in two of the world’s most important prices:

- The exchange rate of the dollar against the Asian currencies.

- The interest rate in the United States (and everywhere in the world, as a result).

snip>

In 2003 and 2004, world central banks (mainly in Asia) printed roughly $1.2 trillion, which has increased the global money base by over 60%<1>. In 2005, the annual rate of printing is roughly $500 billion. This is the greatest quantity of money printed in history (other than in wartime).

snip>

However, like a balloon that can either continue growing or burst, leaders in Asia and the rest of the world currently face two alternatives. They can go on printing money and supporting the artificial price system, or they can halt their intervention, and allow market forces to determine prices.

Continued printing of money will cause the following three problems:

1. Inflation will rise, as already reflected in oil and energy prices.

2. Global imbalance will increase further, possibly at an accelerated pace.

3. The ownership of American assets will gradually shift from American to foreign hands (as a result of the US trade deficit), which will cause unease in the US.

For these reasons, at a certain stage, it will become impossible to continue printing money and intervening in the price mechanism. When that happens, a crisis will ensue.

snip>

A severe banking crisis is expected in both regions.

more...

And as Japan continues to talk of tightening their monetary policies the IMF continues to urge them to maintain their stimulative monetary policy. Interesting times

End to Japan's loose monetary policy nearing: BoJ governor
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050929/bs_afp/japaneconomybankrateforex_050929125451;_ylt=AlThIpasrNUl9y5JN_7GcCWmOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

snip>

At the same time, Fukui sounded a warning over the impact of record high oil prices on the world economy.

"We should pay attention to the protracted surge in crude oil prices and its possible effect on overseas economies, including that of the United States," he said.

At its policy meeting this month, two of the nine of Bank of Japan board members voted to lower the 30-35 trillion yen (266-310 billion dollars) of funds made available to commercial banks.

The IMF urged Japan's central bank to maintain its stimulative monetary policy in its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook report released last week.

[54anickel]

79. McKenna sings Canada's praises while sharing table with U.S. counterpart

http://www.cbc.ca/cp/business/050929/b0929138.html

TORONTO (CP) - Canada's ambassador to the United States gently needled his American counterpart about this country's flush finances and the "dysfunctional" U.S. government Thursday as the two diplomats shared the head table during a business luncheon.

Frank McKenna, less than a year on the job in Washington, made no attempt to gloss over what he considers the comparative weaknesses of the world's most powerful nation, despite the fact he was two seats over from David Wilkins, the U.S. ambassador to Canada.

"The government of the United States is in large measure dysfunctional," McKenna said of the complex checks and balances of American politics.

"In Canada . . .we have party discipline and if you can convince the prime minister that something should be done, invariably it can end up being done."

On the economic front, McKenna pointed out that Americans face a $500-billion federal deficit this year. Canada, on the other hand, "is in its eighth consecutive year of surplus."

more...

[mojavekid]

80. Gold and the Buck,

look at em' - Twins!

......I don't get it.

[54anickel]

84. Hi mojavekid! Good to "see" you. Seems no takers anywhere today

buck down, gold and silver down, stocks and bonds down. Guess everyone is stuffing their little ziplock storage bags today.

[mojavekid]

87. Hiya 54anickel! it's always great to "read" you on the SMW!

And yeah, a bit of a down day, guess i'll just pack up my bullion an' go home...

[UpInArms]

109. Closing numbers for gold

1:47pm 09/30/05 DEC GOLD CLOSES AT $471.40/OZ, DOWN $4.40 FOR THE SESSION

1:47pm 09/30/05 DEC GOLD CLOSES WITH A 6.4% GAIN FOR THE QUARTER

1:47pm 09/30/05 DEC GOLD UP 0.9% FOR THE WEEK, UP 7.6% FOR THE MONTH

[mojavekid]

141. I see they managed to separate,

But there it goes, Gold down, the Buck up.....a perfect example for these interesting days. Everyday is Backwards Day now!

Thanks for the ending numbers and all the cool posts UIA!

-mojavekid

[UpInArms]

143. have a great weekend mojavekid!

We'll see what the next week brings :hi:

[54anickel]

85. 12:10 and a bit of a luchtime bump

Dow 10,536.93 -15.85 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,141.76 +0.54 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,226.60 -1.08 (-0.09%)
10-yr Bond 4.332% +0.04
30-yr Bond 4.575% +0.04
NYSE Volume 892,755,000
Nasdaq Volume 723,684,000

12:00PM : The market has spent the morning range-bound and on mixed footing, as a lack of news on either the corporate or earnings fronts limits the enthusiasm of buyers and sellers alike heading into the weekend. While prices across the energy complex continue to pull back and serve as sources of modest support today, the effect is somewhat muted by traders' continued focus upon misgivings regarding the pace of economic growth following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. A flattening yield curve feeds such fears - the 10-year note (-08/32) currently yields 4.33% - while lower than expected reads on personal income and spending may also serve as underpinning elements today. Although it was not a large or surprising drop, Katrina-affected income fell 0.1% vs. a 0.3% expected gain in Aug., while personal spending fell 0.5%, vs. economists' -0.2% prediction. That figure was similarly of little surprise, and was due to a sharp fall in auto sales from hefty numbers in June and July that produced 1% gains in spending. While the headline reads may have spurred some bearish sentiment, the data, ultimately, does not alter post-Katrina conclusions of a 0.5% to 1% hit to Q3 GDP...
Leadership has been mixed and modest today, with Energy (-0.8%) and Financials (-0.3%) serving as the biggest impediments to upward traction. Falling energy prices has weighed upon the Energy sector, triggering some consolidation of its 40.8% year-to-date gain, while pressure from banks (-0.4%) and a weak Treasury market - specifically, the flattening yield curve - keep Financials underwater. On the flip-side, the Consumer Discretionary sector (+0.4%) leads upward efforts, bolstered by retailers' 0.4% gain and continued strength in homebuilders (+1.5%)...

The 0.2% gain offered by the Tech sector has also lent some muscle to the indices' attempts to rise, and comes on the back of a 1.6% surge in semiconductors, a 1.4% rise in diskdrives, and a 0.7% jump in hardware. Surging Micron Technology (MU 13.17 +0.98) shares, a result of the company reporting EPS that surpassed estimates by $0.15 last night, have also contributed to the sector's rise... As such, the Nasdaq has outperformed the Dow and S&P today, modestly adding to yesterday's 1.2% gain - the Composite's best performance in about two months...

Separately, the last dose of economic data today was the Sept. Chicago PMI read, which checked in at 60.5, up from 49.2 in August and well above the expected 52.0. As it was one of the first clear post-Katrina data points and suggests that the hurricane's national impact may not be as bad as feared, the data may be further helping to support today's market... However, the national ISM survey is due out on Monday, and the market may be waiting for that result to better gauge Katrina's effect...DJTA +0.32, DJUA -0.25, DOT +0.22, Nasdaq 100 +0.19, Russell 2000 +0.09, SOX +1.62, S&P Midcap 400 +0.38, XOI -0.66, NYSE Adv/Dec 1779/1310, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1367/1418

[AnneD]

97. That speed bump they ran over

was a dead consumer at the intersection of Wall St and Main St.

[54anickel]

104. Heh-heh...

Gotta run for a couple of hours. If I don't make it back in time, have a great weekend. :hi:

[UpInArms]

95. Laff for the Day: Broker David Lerner fined $115,000 over radio ads

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-30T163220Z_01_N30469977_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-NASD-LERNER.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Brokerages regulator NASD on Friday said it has fined David Lerner Associates $115,000 in a settlement of charges over misleading radio advertising and other communications, including marketing materials and client seminars.

<snip>

The Syosset, New York-based firm often promotes investments in tax-free municipal bonds and its Web site quotes David Lerner as saying in bold type: "You can't be too thin, too rich, or own too many tax-free bonds."

The fines stem from a September 2004 NASD complaint that the firm and David Lerner used 11 radio ads and other communications between May 2001 and May 2003 that contained numerous statements and claims that were misleading, exaggerated or unwarranted.

That period roughly coincided with the worst of a bear market in U.S. stocks, and NASD said the ads suggested that investors might expect to earn at least 10 percent a year. The ads, costing $2.3 million and narrated by Lerner himself, contained such titles as "Get Smart," "Stop the Bleeding," and "An Offer You Can't Refuse."

NASD head of enforcement Barry Goldsmith said David Lerner Associates violated NASD rules by "making statements that investors would naturally be expected to rely upon, that were widely disseminated through the media, but which were exaggerated, misleading and unsupported by the facts."

...more...

Cheerleader outed :rofl:

[54anickel]

96. New Medicare drug coverage makes debut

http://biz.yahoo.com/usat/050929/13138742.html

Starting Saturday, insurance companies can market a historic new drug benefit to Medicare recipients.

All Americans on Medicare will be eligible for the drug coverage, regardless of income. The sign-up period doesn't begin until Nov. 15, but companies offering plans in cooperation with Medicare can begin educating and selling seniors on their versions on Saturday.

During this information period, the nation's 42 million Medicare recipients can expect to be deluged with an array of complicated choices for the new benefit, called Part D.

This is the first time that recipients of traditional Medicare can get most drugs covered without enrolling in a Medicare Advantage HMO option.

snip>

Enrollment is voluntary. Seniors who don't sign up by May 15 but later decide they want the coverage will face penalties in the form of higher premiums.

more...

[UpInArms]

99. S&P cuts Eastman Kodak's debt deeper into junk

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-30T170424Z_01_WNA9303_RTRIDST_0_TECH-EASTMANKODAK-S-P-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Friday cut Eastman Kodak's (EK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) debt ratings, citing concern about the company's profitability and cash flow.

Moody's said the company has had difficulty in forecasting results as it transitions into digital technologies during broad economic uncertainty.

S&P cut Eastman Kodak's corporate credit rating to "BB-minus," the third highest junk level, from "BB." Ratings downgrades can increase a company's borrowing costs.

[54anickel]

105. Next rating = P.O.S. - eom

[UpInArms]

123. S&P cuts Neiman Marcus' debt rating to junk

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-30T185729Z_01_WNA9324_RTRIDST_0_RETAIL-NEIMAN-SP-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Friday cut its credit rating on Neiman Marcus Group (NMGa.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to junk status, citing substantially higher debt after its upcoming $5.1 billion buyout by private equity investors.

The leveraged buyout by Texas Pacific Group and Warburg Pincus will raise total debt to about $3.3 billion from $250 million, substantially weakening the luxury retailer's financial profile, S&P said.

S&P cut the corporate credit rating on Neiman Marcus to "B-plus," the fourth-highest junk rating, from "BBB." The outlook is stable.

[UpInArms]

106. FEMA FRAUD:

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0930-01.htm

I guess there were no displaced locals that are now unemployed that wanted to do this work? I wonder if they (the contractors) are paying a living wage - probably not since the idiotsonofanutjob said they didn't have to.

excerpt:

Steve Manser, the president of Simon Roofing and Sheet Metal of Youngstown, Ohio, which was awarded an initial $10 million contract to begin "Operation Blue Roof" in New Orleans, acknowledged that the price his company is charging to install blue tarps could pay for shingling an entire roof.

But Manser defended his company's contract, saying Hurricane Katrina damaged so many homes and wiped out so much infrastructure in and around New Orleans that it would be impossible to install permanent roofs quickly. The rapid response to the crisis, Manser said, required contractors to mobilize hundreds of construction crews, truck supplies halfway across the country and house and feed armies of workers - at a tremendous set-up cost.

Simon Roofing, the Shaw Group of Baton Rouge, La., and LJC Construction Co. of Dothan, Ala. - the government's three prime blue-roof contractors in Louisiana - have spent millions to lease hotels, hire catering companies and set up computer databases to track and bill the government for their work.

"When you have 400 or 500 people staying out of town, you're paying a whole lot more overhead than you normally do," Manser said. "I couldn't imagine being paid any less, well, scratch that, I guess I could. People will do a lot to get work."

Jim Pogue, a spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers, said the agency strictly followed government contracting requirements and did all it could to get the best deal possible for the roofing work, given the magnitude of the task and the need to protect vulnerable homes as quickly as possible.

Pogue also said that the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which by statute is in charge of the program, asked the Corps to manage the program because FEMA's resources were spread thin.

...more...

[TrogL]

107. Loonie Watch

http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Up-to-the-minute graph (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDY&v=i)

Current TSE:




2005-08-29 Monday, August 29 0.835771 USD
2005-08-30 Tuesday, August 30 0.838997 USD
2005-08-31 Wednesday, August 31 0.840831 USD
2005-09-01 Thursday, September 1 0.843526 USD
2005-09-02 Friday, September 2 0.841751 USD
2005-09-05 Monday, September 5 0.841751 USD
2005-09-06 Tuesday, September 6 0.842673 USD
2005-09-07 Wednesday, September 7 0.843526 USD
2005-09-08 Thursday, September 8 0.845881 USD
2005-09-09 Friday, September 9 0.851136 USD
2005-09-12 Monday, September 12 0.843597 USD
2005-09-13 Tuesday, September 13 0.847458 USD
2005-09-14 Wednesday, September 14 0.845809 USD
2005-09-15 Thursday, September 15 0.842957 USD
2005-09-16 Friday, September 16 0.845594 USD
2005-09-19 Monday, September 19 0.855359 USD
2005-09-20 Tuesday, September 20 0.854409 USD
2005-09-21 Wednesday, September 21 0.856018 USD
2005-09-22 Thursday, September 22 0.857045 USD
2005-09-23 Friday, September 23 0.853752 USD
2005-09-26 Monday, September 26 0.853752 USD
2005-09-27 Tuesday, September 27 0.849113 USD
2005-09-28 Wednesday, September 28 0.848752 USD
2005-09-29 Thursday, September 29 0.852878 USD




I thought I'd spend a little time today (as if I didn't have anything better to do) trying to sort out what's happening with the loonie.

I had a conversation yesterday with a friend of mine who claimed the only thing happening is the greenback is sinking like a rock. It is, but that's not the real issue. If you go to my website (first link above) you'll see that the loonie has been gaining against ALL major currencies and it's been doing it over a long term.

The Bank of Montreal's analysts try and explain some of it here:

http://www.bmo.com/economic/regular/monthlycanada.html

The main risk to this outlook is a stronger Canadian dollar than we are currently forecasting. Such could occur in the face of a general weakening in the US dollar on heightened concerns about the US trade imbalance. Alternatively, financial markets might place greater-than-expected weight on high commodity prices and/or generally strong Canadian economic fundamentals relative to most other G7 economies. An attendant weaker growth outlook would imply a less aggressive tightening by the Bank of Canada through the forecast.

If you read the rest of the analysis, near as I can figure, he's saying "hell it could be worse - the Bank of Canada's slamming on the brakes so hard their feet are bleeding".

For a longer explanation of exactly why the BofC is doing that, check this out (works today only)

http://www.tdsecurities.com/cmu

As expected, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor delivered a speech this afternoon that was seen as relatively “hawkish” by financial markets – although the content was a bit thinner than we would have expected (see yesterday’s Daily). Not surprisingly, there was no
change to the Bank’s view of the world, with Longworth reiterating the bulk of the statement that followed the September 7th rate hike. He repeated that the impact of hurricane Katrina will be modest, that there will be a temporary spike in inflation, that the Canadian economy is operating close to its capacity limits, and that monetary policy is “still stimulative”. Perhaps more importantly, he reiterated that the risks are still “reasonably balanced” – and this, at a time when the Canadian dollar and oil prices are at the centre of
the markets’ radar screens. In sum, there is nothing here to suggest that a pause is in the making. Look for another rate hike on October 18th.

The more revealing part of his speech, however, was not in the scattered comments about the current economic outlook. It was in the fact that a good part of his statement was geared towards explaining the Bank’s forward-looking approach to policy. In Mr. Longworth’s own words, “we need to be aware of the limitations of our policy instrument. It is an instrument that takes considerable time to affect the economy.” Innocuous? We doubt it. Given the public outrage over high gasoline prices, and a manufacturing sector which is becoming increasingly vocal in its struggles, a steady stream of rate hikes does not make for the best optics. Hence, the need to explain to the public that any future rate hikes are not in response to current economic conditions, but are implemented with the view of containing inflation 18-24 months down the road. The simple fact that the BoC feels the need to hammer this point home is one more reason to expect more than just a couple of hikes and a move to the sidelines.

Moreover, although we would have expected it to be more central to his speech, Mr. Longworth did indicate that the Bank of Canada cannot be preoccupied with regional and sectoral patterns of growth – its inflation targets can only be met by focussing on national
pressures on capacity and national economic trends. Notably “under inflation targeting, the record shows that a focus on national measures of pressures on capacity and inflation has led to good national outcomes—and that is the best we can hope for with one
instrument”. No talk here of pausing because of the pain felt by manufacturers in central Canada.

But let's talk about bicycles. The CBC is on strike, so economic coverage tends to be erratic at best but today's morning drive in show was all about the bicycle market in Canada. This is of interest to me because I just had three stolen, all in separate thefts. The second theft actually highlights the problem. The thief stole a bright, shiny new steel-frame Chinese-made bike bought for CAN$125 from Zellers and left behind a beat-up aluminum-frame CAN$1000+ Canadian-made bike (it needs new brake and gear cables - a $25 investment). Canadian manufacturers are complaining that the Chinese are dumping cheap bikes in the Canadian market and putting Canadian manufacturers in a bad position. Canada is threatening to put a 30% levy on Chinese bike imports, but to get around this, one manufacturer is farming his operation out to Vietnam, which does not currently suffer any levies.

The problem is that Canada can't piss off the Chinese too much because they're also buying up everything in sight and paying top greenback for it (assuming they don't re-balance their currency any time in the near future). Canada has put a lot of effort into cultivating the Chinese market with trade delegation after trade delegation going over there to stimulate business so we don't want to piss this advantage away so the bicycle manufacturers may just have to suffer along with all the other markets affected by Chinese imports.

It's still not that simple.

The CBC had a go at it last year:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/dollar_cdn/

and one thing they pointed out was:

Cheaper U.S. dollars also provide Canadian companies with an opportunity to invest in the tools that make them more competitive. Much of the software and machinery Canadian companies buy to run their operations are bought from the U.S. A more favourable exchange rate means those companies can invest more in those tools of efficiency.

For some companies, including those that have been reporting weaker American sales because of the loonie's gains, there can be yet another silver lining. As the Canadian dollar rises, the cost of repaying U.S. dollar debt falls, so forest products companies Abitibi-Price and Cascades, and Allstream (formerly AT&T Canada) all reported quarterly gains in 2003 based on the loonie's increase.

...and this was from last year. The only thing that has changed in this equation is that the greenback's in even worse shape and the loonie is higher against all currencies, so it may be advantageous to think about borrowing someplace other than the US. If China starts to get flibbbertegibity about the US debt load, they may have credit on the street.

I'm so confused.

[UpInArms]

110. Continental raises fares, eyes Oct. flight cutback

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-30T173658Z_01_N30465570_RTRIDST_0_AIRLINES-CONTINENTAL-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) raised fares within the U.S. and between the U.S. and Canada by $10 each way on Thursday to offset record jet fuel prices, spokesman Martin DeLeon said on Friday.

The No. 5 U.S. carrier is also responding to spiking jet fuel prices by reviewing its October schedule and "anticpiates it may suspend some flights in select markets," DeLeon said.

[UpInArms]

111. American Air scrubs flights, cites fuel

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B590AF139%2D1738%2D4D59%2DBA6A%2D0E4B0BD1D1B4%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- American Airlines announced Friday that it was going to stop flying certain domestic routes in October because jet fuel prices make the trips too costly, highlighting the industry's ongoing plight over rising expenses.

From Oct. 5 through Oct. 29, Ft. Worth, Texas-based American will suspend 13 roundtrip flights from its Dallas-Ft. Worth hub and two flights from its Chicago O'Hare hub.

The cancellations account for one roundtrip flight a day on the affected routes to airports like Newark and Denver, with the exception of DFW to Austin, Texas, which will lose two flights, leaving 15. See the list of affected cities.

American Airlines flies more than 2,600 flights a day.

The temporary cutback comes as the peak summer travel season winds down and as the industry lobbyies for relief from high jet fuel expenses.

Flights from O'Hare to Japan's Nagoya airport are being cancelled at the end of October, as well.

...more...

[UpInArms]

112. ENTERGY NAMES BILLY TAUZIN TO BOARD

1:51pm 09/30/05 ENTERGY NAMES BILLY TAUZIN TO BOARD

(edited to add link and blurb)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38625.583208044-844514400&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Entergy Corp. (ETR) on Friday named former Louisiana Congressman Billy Tauzin to its board. Tauzin represented the state's Third District from 1980 to 2004. He became president and chief executive of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, a trade association, in January.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10138-2004Feb3.html

Tauzin Quits Chairmanship, Will Retire From House

Wednesday, February 4, 2004; Page A09

W.J. "Billy" Tauzin (La.), one of the most powerful Republicans in the House, will not seek reelection when his 12th term expires at the end of this year and will vacate the chairmanship of the Energy and Commerce Committee effective Feb. 16.

Tauzin informed Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) yesterday evening.

"Leaving will not be easy, but I believe this year is the right time for me and my family," Tauzin wrote in his resignation letter. "My recent time spent at Bethesda Naval Hospital has reminded me of how precious time and life are and how dear family and friends are."

Rep. Joe Barton (R-Tex.) is seen as likely to take over Tauzin's chairmanship.

<snip>

Tauzin was one of the principal authors of the Medicare prescription drug bill, which included several provisions expected to vastly expand the market for prescription drugs among the elderly. In addition to adding hundreds of billions of dollars for drug benefits, the law bars the federal government from directly bargaining down the price of drugs, a provision PhRMA pressed for.

He recused himself from participating in health care issues before his committee last week and is expected to take the PhRMA offer and leave the House before his term expires. Public Citizen, a public interest group, has called for an ethics investigation of Tauzin.

...more...

[AnneD]

131. Entergy

has a bad rep down here now. They have the most customers without electricity (Beaumont and Port Arthur). Gee why am I not suprised. Customers may be trying to leave that sorry co after all of this is over. Centerpoint has had to start repairing their lines (elec companies have co-op arrangements).

[UpInArms]

134. it probably has to do with this:

Tauzin running interference and scooping of money out of the taxpayers' pockets.

Remember, this is unprecedented - never has FERC subsidized the energy companies.

Regulators to aid hurricane-hit utilities

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={33d5af93-00db-4dab-b524-2e0eb12aa3f6}&siteid=mktw&dist=SignInArchive&archive=true¶m=archive&garden=&minisite=

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal energy regulators are prepared to help hurricane-battered utilities recover costs to repair their power systems, a move that could set a precedent.

"We'll be open to requests at the federal level to consider cost recovery in the wake of hurricane Katrina," Federal Energy Regulatory Chairman Joseph Kelliher said Tuesday.

The commission regulates the interstate transmission of electricity, and wholesale sales of electricity in interstate commerce.

Kelliher said that neither Southern Co. (SO: news, chart, profile) nor Entergy Corp. (ETR: news, chart, profile) -- the two utilities with electric systems hardest hit by the hurricane -- have indicated that they will seek federal aid.

"But I don't want to rule out the possibility that we might get a request at FERC to help in cost recovery," he added.

In the past, state regulators have dealt with utilities' costs to fix storm-damaged transmission lines. In 2004, Florida utilities battered by four hurricanes used state proceedings to recoup their repair costs.

"We will consider them if they are structured in a way where it would be jurisdictional to the commission," Kelliher said. "All I'm doing is leaving the door open."

It is unclear what form any cost-recovery mechanisms approved by commission would take, and whether utilities would be able to pass any of these costs along to ratepayers.

...more...

[AnneD]

140. UIA....

good catch. Bet you are right. What a flying pile 'o poo.

[ozymandius]

116. stocks at the waterline

Isn't it a bit unusual for stocks to be flat on the last day of the month/quarter?

2:11
Dow 10,552.06 -0.72 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,146.37 +5.15 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,227.72 +0.04 (+0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 43.34 +0.45 (+1.05%)
NYSE Volume 1,302,228,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,025,780,000

1:30PM: The absence of a catalyst to ignite either buying or further selling interest keeps leadership lackluster and the indices tightly contained... Energy, off about 1% on the day, continues to pose the strongest downward pressure... Despite the sector's relative weakness today, though, it outshines the second-place Utilities sector twice over and by a 19.6% margin on a year-to-date basis; for further comparison, Healthcare, the third best performer on the year, offers a 3.7% gain...

In terms of third quarter performances, as today's session is Q3's last, four of Energy's five subgroups hold spots on the S&P's top ten list. Of them, refiners' 42.2% gain places number one... On the other side of the aisle, groups within the Consumer Discretionary sector dominate the Q3 laggard list, with home furnishing's 24.2% loss leading the way lower... NYSE Adv/Dec 1764/1398, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1406/1484

[UpInArms]

119. shiny coin time again?

[UpInArms]

117. 2:17 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,548.24 -4.54 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,145.63 +4.41 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,227.39 -0.29 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.333 +0.44 (+1.03%)

NYSE Volume 1,325,501,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,042,030,000

2:00PM: The indices have remained static since the last comment... The Materials sector continues to fare relatively well today, up 0.6% and teaming with Consumer Discretionary (+0.5%), Consumer Staples (+0.4%), and Tech (+0.2) to support the overall market. In particular, fertilizer and chemicals remain a bright patch, offering a session-leading gain on account of Monsanto's (MON 62.96 +1.58) 2.6% surge...

Buying interest within the sector is broad-based, though, as evidenced by the positive standing of 84% of its components. Of Materials' 5 decliners, only one - Newmont Mining (NEM 47.08 -0.97) - has lost more than 1% today. As a result of NEM's slide, which comes with Venezuela's reported plan to cancel mining rights for some companies, in favor of a state-owned agency, gold futures have fallen 0.8% today...NYSE Adv/Dec 1787/1398, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1454/1434

1:30PM: The absence of a catalyst to ignite either buying or further selling interest keeps leadership lackluster and the indices tightly contained... Energy, off about 1% on the day, continues to pose the strongest downward pressure... Despite the sector's relative weakness today, though, it outshines the second-place Utilities sector twice over and by a 19.6% margin on a year-to-date basis; for further comparison, Healthcare, the third best performer on the year, offers a 3.7% gain...

In terms of third quarter performances, as today's session is Q3's last, four of Energy's five subgroups hold spots on the S&P's top ten list. Of them, refiners' 42.2% gain places number one... On the other side of the aisle, groups within the Consumer Discretionary sector dominate the Q3 laggard list, with home furnishing's 24.2% loss leading the way lower...

[UpInArms]

120. 2:37 EST fairies on the floor

Dow 10,568.22 +15.44 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,150.32 +9.10 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 1,229.53 +1.85 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.325 +0.36 (+0.84%)

NYSE Volume 1,412,125,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,115,288,000

[ozymandius]

127. 3:15 numbers

Dow 10,559.46 +6.68 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,148.41 +7.19 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 1,228.25 +0.57 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 43.32 +0.43 (+1.00%)
NYSE Volume 1,588,340,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,261,458,000

[loudsue]

128. A few of the fairies are on coffee break, looks like!

:kick:

[ozymandius]

132. And it's the last day of the month too.

That's what's so weird. The numbers say that stocks are heavily traded today. Yet the markets are going nowhere. Don't these PPT folks know that fund managers will not get their bonuses unless there's a huge runup?

[UpInArms]

136. 3:37 EST run-up trying to get off the floor

Dow 10,555.72 +2.94 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,147.17 +5.95 (+0.28%)
S&P 500 1,227.75 +0.07 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.328 +0.39 (+0.91%)

NYSE Volume 1,711,312,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,363,125,000

[UpInArms]

129. American Standard sues Marsh (bid-rigging)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD45DC1C9%2DE25B%2D44D9%2D8DDC%2D04DADD64EE66%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - American Standard Cos. sued Marsh & McLennan claiming the insurance broker's alleged bid-rigging scheme damaged the faucet and air-conditioning company and violated anti-trust laws.

American Standard, which paid more than $21 million in premiums for excess insurance policies brokered by Marsh in 2003, said it was a direct victim of bid-rigging, according to a complaint filed in U.S. district court in New Jersey last week.

When American Standard's excess casualty insurance was up for renewal in 2003, the company claims Marsh asked insurer Zurich American Insurance to provide a fake quote that was purposely over-priced to protect incumbent carrier American International Group (AIG: news, chart, profile) .

Zurich American is a subsidiary of Swiss insurer Zurich Financial Services (ZFSVY: news, chart, profile) .

American Standard (ASD: news, chart, profile) also claimed it was a victim of Marsh's practice of collecting controversial "contingent commission" payments in return for steering business to favored insurers.

...more...

[ozymandius]

138. a quiet little ending to a heavily traded day

Have a great weekend!

Ozy :hi:

Dow 10,568.70 +15.92 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,151.69 +10.47 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,228.81 +1.13 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 43.28 +0.39 (+0.91%)
NYSE Volume 2,032,442,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,610,635,000

4:20PM: Tightly contained and in proximity of the flat line throughout the session, the market's majors closed the day - and the quarter - modestly higher, resulting in respective Q3 gains of 2.9%, 3.1%, and 4.5% in the Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq. Most significantly was the fact that today marked only the tenth time since 1970 that the Dow ended September on the upside... Window-dressing had been somewhat of a force behind trading over the past couple of sessions, and fund managers' last-minute adjustments to enhance Q3 portfolio returns may explain the slight bout of late-day traction...

It was the Tech sector's 0.5% gain that kept the Nasdaq afloat all day and that fueled the overall market, lending 1.9% surges in semiconductors and diskdrives, a 1.1% rise in hardware, and 0.9% gains in networking and software... Chip stocks got a boost following Micron Technology's (MU 13.31 +1.12) surprisingly upbeat Q4 (Aug) earnings report while hardware benefited as investors took another bite out of Apple (AAPL), extending its quarter-to-date gain to 45%...

Materials, however, turned in the strongest performance, aside from Telecom Services' 0.8% gain, chalking +0.6% on account of wide-spread buying that led to rises in 27 of the sector's 32 issues... Consumer Staples (+0.5%) also exhibited relative strength today, largely on the back of soaring Gillette (G 57.81 +1.60) and Proctor & Gamble (PG 59.30 +1.16) shares upon reports that the FTC has cleared the pair's merger...

[EVDebs]

142. A great bit of research Ozymandius ! Thanks !