STOCK MARKET WATCH, FRIDAY OCT 24....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Friday October 24, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 458
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 340
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 315 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 8 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 215
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 699
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 23, 2003

Dow... 9,613.13 +14.89 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq... 1,885.51 -12.56 (-0.66%)
S&P 500.... 1,033.77 +3.41 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.32% +0.04 (+1.01%)
Gold future... 385.00 -1.80 (-0.47%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[FlemingsGhost]

1. Damn! I know I'm up too late when the Market Watch appears!

Either that, or you're up early, Oz.

[JNelson6563]

2. Good morning Ozy!

Well I missed the endo of the day action yesterday but saw the surprinsing ending. The PTT must've been busy with a little help from some bargain hunters.

BTW, excellent toon. The pic of Ashcroft wearing a flag folded intop a turban adds the needed humor in a big way. They know if folks see too many pictures of flag-draped coffins their "things are great in Iraq" will be an even tougher sell. Ah fascism! Nothing quite like it! ;-)

Will check back in later dear! Hope all's well in Ozy-land. All's good here, looks like we're finally in for a normal day in the happy-go-lucky world of Julie (whatever "normal" is haha).

Julie

[ozymandius]

3. Good morning Julie.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

I could not believe the market numbers yesterday. As the headlines announced at 4:01 some gains in the Dow, a completely worn-out song echoed in my ears. It goes a little like this: "P-P-T...P-P-T...P-P-T...P-P-T..." (to the tune of "Jingle Bells")

All is getting better here in my tiny little world. I hit the road at 7:30 for Chattanooga, TN to sign a contract on a project. Suffice to say that I will not be around today.

[ozymandius]

4. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

"How the US Can Raise $85 Billion and Keep Everyone Happy Using Unconventional Means"

If the US is going to occupy Iraq, its military expenses must be funded. The government estimates these military costs at over $85 billion this year. With the recent tax cuts, the government may have to use creative thinking to find the required funding. I suspect that the funding will come by printing more money. But, this is inflationary and will dilute the wealth of the American taxpayers’ cash by weakening the dollar. However, I have a more creative plan for raising the required funds that is not as burdensome to either taxpayers or business. In fact, it is not inflationary or burdensome to anyone at all. The management teams in the publicly traded technology companies inspired this plan. It includes the use of stock options. This is how the plan would work.

To make the math easy, I will lump the all of the NASDAQ companies together with regard to number of shares outstanding at single price. Once passed through the Congress, CPA’s can do the ciphering for each individual company on a proportional basis to each company’s market capitalization. Alternatively, exchange traded funds such as the new ONEQ shares that trade on the NASDAQ can be used. <cut>

Just A Little Stealing, That’s All

The illegal late trading of offending mutual funds has effects that have impacted all individuals investing in these funds. The effects may be found to be far-reaching and significant. New York State Attorney General, Elliot Spitzer deserves the admiration and appreciation of the individual investing public. It’s interesting that the illegal late trading has yet to make the “Spotlight on Topics of Current Interest at the SEC." It seems to me that the SEC should be concentrating more on investigating, prosecuting, and even publicizing the late trading activities, since the impact of this crime is the both broad and profound. While the SEC fiddles with late trading, it seems as if there is no limit to the amount of effort that is put forth to prosecute Martha Stewart for allegedly illegally trading 4,000 shares of a speculative stock. So why did it take Mr. Spitzer and not the SEC to identify and break the late trading scandal? The SEC was probably too busy choreographing another Martha Stewart and Sam Waxel “perp. walk” for TV. The Martha Stewart exercise in sensationalism is paid 100% by our tax dollars. What a shame!

The FAQ is very interesting!

[ozymandius]

5. Have a great day Marketeers!

I am on my way to Chattanooga. See you back here Monday.

[JNelson6563]

6. safe journey Ozy

Loved the tune--P-P-T sung to the tune of jingle bells. That was rich. Will remember that every time questionable gains are made. :-)

Now go make lucrative deals!!

Julie

[Maeve]

7. TGIF, Marketeers!

"One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider."

Sky Masterson, from Guys and Dolls

Never play a rigged game, unless you are the one rigging it. And quite frankly, the game feels rigged right now. I'm not going to predict the markets and I may stay away from the computer today--I'm beginning to be overwhelmed with cynicism and that is not a good thing for a liberal who tries to believe humans are capable of governing themselves.

But y'all go ahead and help yourselves to the donuts!
:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

[JNelson6563]

8. it is very cynical

not to be confused with cyclical. haha

The only way I can bare to look regularly is to assume the perspective of a historian observing things with a view to the entire world stage over a vast period of time. I see it as a chapter in a neverending story and I'm just in the audience (for the most part).

And what an intersting play it is. We need a few of the relaly strong players that were on the world stage throughout the centuries to step up and take things in a different direction.

I often wonder if there truly are any left among us....

I'll check in as time permits, have a good, not too cynical day Maeve--you gentle soul.

Julie

[UpInArms]

9. daily dollar watch

and the message for the dollar seems to be in the season - Fall is here!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 91.38 Change -0.13 (-0.14%)

[UpInArms]

10. Whoopsie!!! 3 minutes in and really red

Dow 9,553.13 -60.00 (-0.62%)
Nasdaq 1,859.97 -25.54 (-1.35%)
S&P 500 1,026.45 -7.31 (-0.71%)
10-Yr Bond 4.263% -0.053

[trogdor]

11. They're blaming it all on Bill Gates

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031024/markets_stocks_4.html

U.S. stocks set to fall on Microsoft caution
Friday October 24, 8:51 am ET
By Denise Duclaux

NEW YORK, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Stocks are set to fall at Friday's opening bell after a cautious outlook from Microsoft Corp., the world's largest software maker, fed Wall Street's doubts over the market's big run-up this year.

"Microsoft adds to a long list of big, high-profile names that have not completely followed through either with the quarter or guidance going forward," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. "All these big-cap names are enough to stall this rally. We seem to be in a corrective phase here, and it's just a matter of to what extent."

Microsoft posted a rise in quarterly profit and upped its outlook for the current fiscal year, although within the range expected by Wall Street. But the Nasdaq heavyweight and Dow component admitted that concerns over the security of its software had cut into new contracts in the latest quarter.

Microsoft is well known for its cautious approach to business forecasts, but its outlook was seen as less rosy than those offered by other high-tech companies. Microsoft fell more than 5 percent before the open to $27.35 from Thursday's close of $28.91.

[Coventina]

12. The "I Ching" on today's market

Good morning.

I've got to rush on this one! The SO and I slept through our alarms this morning!

Anyway, today's reading is SHOCKING changing to HARMONIZE. The changing line for Shocking reads, "An unexpected event may frighten you." Harmonize says, "New ideas, inventions, and innovations can now be successfully developed and promoted."

Well, Ching has cried wolf before about the SHOCKING event, so I won't make a comment on that. I'm going to predict that the NASDAQ will be up today.

Happy Friday!

[JNelson6563]

13. 10:10 and a bit dark

Dow 9,557.28 -55.85 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,863.03 -22.48 (-1.19%)
S&P 500 1,026.16 -7.61 (-0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.284% -0.032

Curse you Bill Gates for not making enough money!! ;-)

At least some goes to Treasuries. Another bumpy ride ahead today. Hope you're all strapped in.

Julie

[wetbandit2003]

14. I dont see what all the fuss is about...

The marketeers are probobly pissing and whining over the Senate's pay hike and the class-action bill that went through congress. Stupid wall street suits.
:hurts:

[JNelson6563]

15. I think they are scared of

the words of caution regarding 4Q results from CEOs and somewhat disappointing results for 3Q. I think too they may be getting a clure on the fake UE #s. Just guesses mind you. I hardly think they care about the Senate or anyone getting a raise. When you play the Wall Street game such sums are pennies, n'ary a blip on the screen.

Anyhow, at 12:03 we are looking at:

Dow 9,544.17 -68.96 (-0.72%)
Nasdaq 1,856.61 -28.90 (-1.53%)
S&P 500 1,023.50 -10.27 (-0.99%)
10-Yr Bond 4.257% -0.059

Some $$ into Treasuries. Hope all are faring well today. :hi:

Julie

[mrsteve]

16. 12:48 - the markets are sleeping with the fishes...

Wow - things look even worse than yesterday.

Dow 9,533.74 -79.39 (-0.83%)
Nasdaq 1,852.91 -32.60 (-1.73%)
S&P 500 1,022.13 -11.63 (-1.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.263% -0.053

Earnings reports are a bit of a bummer today, one supposes.

[JNelson6563]

17. make the bad man stop!

12:57

Dow 9,512.39 -100.74 (-1.05%)
Nasdaq 1,846.07 -39.44 (-2.09%)
S&P 500 1,020.11 -13.65 (-1.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.238% -0.078

Ouch!

Julie

[UpInArms]

18. they're 'fixing' it for you

right now - see?


Dow 9,520.99 -92.14 (-0.96%)
Nasdaq 1,847.67 -37.84 (-2.01%)
S&P 500 1,020.66 -13.10 (-1.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.231% -0.085

and see how well the dollar is?

Last trade 91.11 Change -0.40 (-0.44%)

[TrogL]

19. Explain please

and see how well the dollar is?

Last trade 91.11

Compared to what? Yesterday's greenback? The loonie??

What does that number mean?

[UpInArms]

24. sorry to confuse

didn't mean to be opaque -

that number comes from the dollar index (link here http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0 )

this is a measure of the dollar versus other currencies.

When *Co took office, the dollar was over 120 and started drifting downward - they have spouted all types of nonsense and have said they support a "strong dollar" - yet have gone from country to country begging them to stop supporting the dollar.

There are lots of pros and cons to this - you can do some research or ask me other questions - just pm me

the see how well the dollar is remark was made rather sarcastically - I apologize.

I have a theory regarding the fluctation of the dollar and the dow in intraday trading - not supported by anything but observation and I have no way of supporting my "theory" or documenting what they do - and I cannot tell exactly how "they" do it.

[Maeve]

25. "just pm me"

No, you don't! Discuss it out here in the open so all who might have questions but are afraid to ask can learn, too!

So there!

Seems the support under the markets is about as strong as the support under the dollar, she typed, dryly.

Dow 9,515.06 -98.07 (-1.02%)
Nasdaq 1,845.89 -39.62 (-2.10%)
S&P 500 1,020.28 -13.49 (-1.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.218% -0.098

[UpInArms]

26. okay - don't "pm" me

ask me out here and I'll try to explain why and what I watch for - what my theories are and everyone and their dog can pick holes in them :D

sorry Maeve - just didn't want to bore anyone not interested

[Maeve]

29. If they aren't interested, they don't have to read

I read everything that gets posted in this thread and I'm not ashamed to say I'm still learning, sage wisewoman tho I am! :eyes:

I'm curious about what you watch for plus I can't stand to think there might be a brilliant conversation going that I didn't get to hear because I didn't ask to listen in!

B-)

[UpInArms]

32. well, it's kinda of watching a game

of three card monte - or that magician trick where they hide the ball under a shell and you guess which one...

you watch the shells (being the markets, the dollar and gold) and you see where they try to squish gold down on its up days - today it got up to 391 and they bashed it down to 388 and then they took the dollars they had left and lifted the markets back up -

you can see them try to get to certain numbers (mostly 100s and 50s on the dow and 25s on the nasdaq) and they attempt to keep it within the range of the 50 day moving averages, so that they can continue to sell it to the institutional buyers --

but you have to remember that there are commissions on every transaction and eventually there will not be enough to cover all the costs of doing the ppt dance every day --

and they do it almost every day, in some little way --

so the Bank of Japan keeps buying into the dollar, just a little bit each week -- trying to wean itself off of the US consumer and is looking for the next emerging market (see China)

read this silly LTTE yesterday and am working up a biography on the guy who wrote it -- maybe some insight, maybe not --

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A3441-2003Oct22.html

but don't get too confused about the trade deficit -- that is a whole other problem -- but it seems to be just another push to lower the value of the $

Raygun was big on devaluing the dollar and I remember the financial mess that created and there were many other issues with his fiscal policies as well.

I could probably write for several hours regarding the dollar and the debts and the deficits, but would put most to sleep (wish it made me want to sleep, keeps me up worrying at night)

[mrsteve]

20. 1:30 - Nasdaq takin' it hard

Indexes are off their lows for the day, but just barely.

Dow 9,516.02 -97.11 (-1.01%)
Nasdaq 1,847.03 -38.48 (-2.04%)
S&P 500 1,019.93 -13.84 (-1.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.228% -0.088

[mrsteve]

21. At his point all October's gains are gone

All the shine of the last three weeks is gone as of right now, provided there is no end-of-day rally.

Yahoo Finance says technicians causing sales:
"1:00PM: The pace of selling quickens as the technical picture deteriorates from a near-term perspective... The Dow has fallen below its 50-day moving average, at 9527, and the S&P 500 has slipped below the bottom of its October gap, the 50% retrace of the September/October rally and its 50 day average, all marked at 1021... Traders eying the charts have thus taken more money off the table, particularly in momentum areas such as internet, computer hardware, networking, and telecommunications... Down volume is now leading up volume by a 4-to-1 ratio at the Nasdaq, and a 3-to-1 ratio at the NYSE..."

[JNelson6563]

23. continuing downward

2:09


Dow 9,500.39 -112.74 (-1.17%)
Nasdaq 1,842.77 -42.74 (-2.27%)
S&P 500 1,018.36 -15.40 (-1.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.226% -0.090

Lots and lots of $$ into the 10 yr!

Julie

[mrsteve]

22. 2:05 - back below day's lows

Dow 9,503.49 -109.64 (-1.14%)
Nasdaq 1,842.78 -42.73 (-2.27%)
S&P 500 1,018.74 -15.02 (-1.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.227% -0.089

I'd post the Yahoo Finance Update, but it's just some depressed mumblings, blaming Tech and Airlines for dragging down the indexes.

Guess Bill Gates has a pretty sizable pie-hole efect, huh. :evilgrin:

[JNelson6563]

28. 3:12 Still real ugly

Dow 9,515.43 -97.70 (-1.02%)
Nasdaq 1,846.79 -38.72 (-2.05%)
S&P 500 1,020.56 -13.20 (-1.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.217% -0.099


Blather anyone?


3:00PM: Sluggish day of trade continues, with the indices showing little life with the session entering the final hour of trading... Buyers have clung to the sidelines and hardly participated in today's trade as valuation concerns have kept them away... This quarter's earnings reports have been better than most reporting periods, with 64% of them beating estimates and 25% of them meeting estimates, as compared to the average of 62% and 21%, respectively... As a result, this week's weakness has been the result of "selling on the news" and not worries about the fundamental picture of most companies...NYSE Adv/Dec 1171/1766, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 999/2066

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Yeah, no worries about fundamentals, oh no! Mmm hmm, whatever. :eyes:

Julie

[Maeve]

30. All about the "estimates"

Tell everyone you think the dog is dead and they're happy just to see it wag its tail....bow-wow.

Little lifting as we round into the final half-hour

Dow 9,548.24 -64.89 (-0.68%)
Nasdaq 1,854.58 -30.93 (-1.64%)
S&P 500 1,024.50 -9.27 (-0.90%)
10-Yr Bond 4.212% -0.104

[Spazito]

27. Here is an interesting article from a Canadian perspective on the market

http://ctv2.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20031023.wmath1023/business/Business/businessBN/ctv-business

As the parade of third-quarter earnings reports approaches an end, company after company has found its stock battered, despite meeting or even beating expectations for the quarter. In fact, the major indexes have been awfully choppy — with the general trend downward — ever since earnings season began. Why? Because better-than-expected profits are already "baked in" to stock prices, market watchers like Chuck Hill of Thomson Financial/First Call say, and investors are pinning their hopes on even better ones. But they may not get them.

<snip>

So that's compelling evidence of the kind of strong turnaround the market is looking for, right? Not so fast. For one thing, whether corporate profits are up substantially compared with last year's quarter has a lot to do with how good or bad last year was, and for some companies it was very bad indeed — which makes their current results look that much better by comparison. For another thing, the amount by which profits exceed expectations has a lot to do with whether estimates are high or low. If they are low, beating them is that much easier.

<snip>

Investors seem to be expecting the economy to undergo the kind of turnaround it has seen in the past following a recession, Mr. Hill says, the kind where consumer demand surges and that allows companies to invest in more capacity and raise prices, producing better earnings. But this recovery is different, he argues. "Our whole thesis is that this recession was different from any other, and it is begetting a very different recovery." Since consumer demand never really dipped, it can't really surge, and capacity in both services and manufacturing got overstretched to the point where there is still too much slack in the economic system.

That's not the kind of growth scenario the market seems to be expecting, however — and that should make investors nervous.

more

[mrsteve]

31. Two very good points -

"Because better-than-expected profits are already "baked in" to stock prices, market watchers like Chuck Hill of Thomson Financial/First Call say, and investors are pinning their hopes on even better ones. But they may not get them."

Ahhh, now I see why earnings statements that just barely miss projections are being treated like lepers - and lowering the market overall. Effects of lower earnings are magnified, because the expections of future growth are excessively optimisitic.

"Investors seem to be expecting the economy to undergo the kind of turnaround it has seen in the past following a recession, Mr. Hill says, the kind where consumer demand surges and that allows companies to invest in more capacity and raise prices, producing better earnings. But this recovery is different, he argues. "Our whole thesis is that this recession was different from any other, and it is begetting a very different recovery.""

Golly - guess a "job-loss" recovery won't create the consumer demand that causes real recovery, huh?

(on edit - typo in title)

[JNelson6563]

34. closing numbers

Dow 9,582.46 -30.67 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 1,865.59 -19.92 (-1.06%)
S&P 500 1,028.91 -4.86 (-0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.212% -0.104

Quite a day in treasuries. Catch all you marketeers Monday!!

Julie

[mrsteve]

33. Closing numbers - a pop up at the end

Wow - a 30 - 50% pop up for the day in the last 45 minutes. Either some intense bargain shopping, some short closing, or PPT, or maybe all three.

Dow 9,582.46 -30.67 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 1,865.59 -19.92 (-1.06%)
S&P 500 1,028.91 -4.86 (-0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.212% -0.104

See everyone back in the casino observation room tomorrow.