STOCK MARKET WATCH, TUESDAY OCT 28...(#1)

[ozymandius]

Tuesday October 28, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 454
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 344
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 319 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 12 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 219
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 703
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 27, 2003

Dow... 9,608.16 +25.70 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq... 1,882.91 +17.32 (+0.93%)
S&P 500.... 1,031.13 +2.22 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.27% +0.05 (+1.26%)
Gold future... 388.20 -1.00 (-0.26%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. I was somewhat stunned to see this at Financial Sense.

We would appreciate your prayers for our community in San Diego. Jim and I are unable to return to San Diego due to the fires blocking our access. Our office is closed as staff homes are in danger.
Mary & Jim Puplava

[JNelson6563]

5. Wow!!

Very sad. All those in Cali who have been dealing with this have been in my thoughts. Horrible, truly horrible.

Julie

[ozymandius]

2. Sony to slash 20,000 jobs

(CNN) -- Sony Corp, the world's largest consumer electronics company, says it will trim 20,000 jobs from its global workforce over the next three years as part of a turnaround strategy designed to lift flagging profits.

Sony announced the job cuts in Tokyo Tuesday after the share market closed.

story

[ozymandius]

3. Stocks look for Fed view

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Signs from Federal Reserve policy makers that the economy is turning around will be anxiously awaited Tuesday by U.S. stock investors, who will also consider new economic reports and more quarterly results.

At 5:25 a.m. ET, futures pointed to a higher start for the major indexes.

The Fed is expected to hold key rates at their lowest levels in more than four decades. But what's up in the air is what their meeting statement, due around 2:15 p.m. ET, will say about the shape of the economy. Some observers are concerned that if the Fed keeps low rates going past the start of a turnaround, it could trigger a wave of inflation down the road.

story

[ozymandius]

4. Have a wonderful day Marketeers.

This is where I must leave to dash off to work. But as I was quickly browsing the financial pages - this caught my eye:

Earnings Meet Forecasts But Impress Few

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Major U.S. companies delivered earnings at or above expectations on Monday, but the news was barely enough to satisfy investors hungry for signs of both rapid and sustainable growth.

The tone was similar to last week, when only companies that surprised Wall Street with far better-than-expected results and forecasts got a lift from the market.

more about this here

Okay. What's wrong with this picture? Sounds to me like investors are still looking to the stock markets as some "get rich quick" gimmick. Even the two words, "rapid and sustainable", placed side by side cause some cognitive disfunction to rattle in my brain. Egads! We will never set ourselves on a steady course to true recovery and realistic sustainable growth if this is the modus opperandi of the average investor.

Is this idea now an indelible societal notion? That rapid and sustainable are natural compatible realities? Will most investors ever be satisfied with anything less than 7% growth?

We now have companies that beat expectations by a razor-thin margin. They BEAT expectations. Yet, the stock drops in value because profits did not rise enough.

I'd better get to work. I feel like hitting something with a hammer.

[JNelson6563]

6. Good morning and Good bye Ozy!

I too see all hopes pinned on the upcoming numbers and Greenman comments. But, but, but, I thought we were all supposed to be oh-so-confident about the economy. Their slips are showing and we can clearly see it is not confidence but more a pins-and-needles sort of situation. Not that they had any of us fooled. :-)

Futures are bright and shiney but that is based on hope. Oh yes, we have companies beating expectations alright, lowered expectations. Haha Reminds me of some reich-winger pointing at the swiftness with which Baghdad fell. Oh yeah, our $350 billion a year military agaisnt Iraq's rag-tag army, what a nail-biter!! Ah well the sheeple eat it up and bleat happily all the way to the buy window so who are we to wake them from their happy dreams? The re-po man will do that soon enough.

More later, time to get the man-child up for school. My daughter (the violinist) is doing her first "tour" today. Her orchestra is going around to the elementary schools. Chrissy's World Tour '03. I'll have the tee-shirts and commemorative posters available at a discount for all DUers. ;-)

Julie

[UpInArms]

7. daily dollar watch

and it looks like the currency traders are doing the same thing - the current numbers are basically unchanged (yen/euro vs dollar) but the Dec numbers are weakening and for whatever reason (one I cannot explain at this moment) the dollar appears to be gaining - we will see if that holds throughout the day as the consumer "sentiment" and the FOMC meeting minutes are released.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 91.95 Change +0.34 (+0.37%)

[Maeve]

8. Consumer Confidence and Durable Orders out today

Both expected to rise, but the usual reports haven't really been driving forces lately. All eyes are on the Fed, and that's the truth.

Here's hoping all San Diego DUers are safe from the fires. The costs of this are going to be absolutely overwhelming. (Nice time to change state gevernments, California!)

[UpInArms]

9. interesting article re: the fed meeting

in the Toronto Star

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1067296209157&call_pageid=968350072197&col=969048863851

Most investors had assumed the central bankers all backed the Fed's official promise first made in August to keep policy easy for a "considerable period." That is because although the economy is surging, inflation remains low and the job market has yet to recover.

But at some point in the next several months, the Federal Reserve may need to reconsider that commitment, though few expect it to happen after today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The Fed is thought likely to repeat its main concern that inflation could fall too low, as it has for several months.

The federal funds rate stands at a 45-year low of 1 per cent, and financial markets expect no change until at least the spring, while some economists forecast no hike in rates until 2005. So, what will the Fed committee be considering at today's meeting?

All questions revolve around how the economy will fare after a stellar third quarter, when growth probably topped 6 per cent, fuelled by tax cuts and strong consumer spending.

[Maeve]

10. Durable Good Orders up .8%

That is good, but a little less than expected and follows a decline of 1.1% in August.

[UpInArms]

11. did you notice the

revision on the August number?

it was reported (in September) at -.1% and now shows a revised number of -1.1%

so is this like the unemployment numbers?

wonder what the number will be next month....

[Maeve]

13. Now wait a minute!

I typed my post with the window to the economic reports page open and it said the August figure was -1.1%. NOW it says the original was -.9% and the revised figure is -.1% (page used is http://financial.washingtonpost.com/wpost/briefing.asp?mode=MARKCAL&dispnav=business )

[UpInArms]

14. gack!!!

I get the numbers at http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

and they have changed for August also!

now it reads:

Oct 28 8:30 AM Durable Orders Sep
(reported) 0.8%
(yahoo briefing anticipated) 2.0%
(market anticipated) 1.0%
(final August report) -0.9%
(original August report) -0.1%

now I wish I had "cut and pasted" the numbers earlier

[Maeve]

15. Here we go--Yahoo vs CNN

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo
8:35AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. The futures market got a boost on the heels of the September Durable Goods report, which although slightly below the consensus, checked in with a solid increase of 0.8% (consensus 1.0%). Excluding transportation, an often-volatile component, Durable Goods increased 1.2% in September. The cash market looks set to open higher.
8:20AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. The Durable Orders report for September will be released at 8:30ET. This report speaks to the state of the manufacturing sector and is often a market-mover. The consensus estimate is for a reading of 1.0% versus the prior reading of -1.1% and Briefing.com's consensus of 2.0%.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/10/28/news/economy/durables/index.htm
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Demand for long-lasting goods manufactured in the United States rose in September, and August's decline was smaller than initially reported, the government said Tuesday.

New orders for durable goods -- items such as cars, computers and appliances meant to last three years or more -- rose 0.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted $176.2 billion after falling a revised 0.1 percent in August, the Commerce Department reported.


If they can't get the numbers previously reported straight....

[UpInArms]

17. yahoo must have read your post

Maeve :)

here are the numbers now on their page:

Oct 28 8:30 AM Durable Orders Sep
(reported) 0.8%
(yahoo briefing anticipated) 2.0%
(market anticipated) 1.0%
(final August report) -0.1%
(original August report) -1.1%

[JNelson6563]

12. was it 1.3% they were expecting?

Ah well, no matter! Since we have all these bombings in Iraq to prove how successful Jr's foreign policy has been the sky is the limit!

Julie

[Maeve]

16. Okay. Let's get this thing started!

Beginning in black:
Dow 9,628.53 +20.37 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,892.53 +9.62 (+0.51%)
S&P 500 1,033.62 +2.49 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.310% +0.045

New Cartoons in the Meeting room!

[Maeve]

18. Soaring at 10

Dow 9,659.35 +51.19 (+0.53%)
Nasdaq 1,902.57 +19.66 (+1.04%)
S&P 500 1,037.60 +6.47 (+0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.301% +0.036

New Cartoons in the Meeting Room!

[UpInArms]

19. Consumers are Confident once again!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={E7A60161-28A3-4935-8D17-B6424289B293}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

U.S. consumer confidence rebounds in Oct By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 81.1 in October from a revised 77.0 in September. The increase in consumer confidence was larger than expected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for consumer confidence to rise to 79.1 in October. Consumer confidence in September had originally been estimated at 76.8. The present situation index increased to 66.8 from 59.7. This is the first increase after five straight monthly declines. The expectation of future economic conditions rose to 90.7 from 88.5 in September. "With the holiday season around the corner, this improvement in consumers' spirits is a good omen for upcoming retail sales," said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.

[Maeve]

20. See? We're all happy so shut UP already!

No more bad times, just happy-talk 24/7! And last month's was better than we thought, too, so there!

Dow 9,658.76 +50.60 (+0.53%)
Nasdaq 1,902.27 +19.36 (+1.03%)
S&P 500 1,037.47 +6.34 (+0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.287% +0.022

[JNelson6563]

21. Hooray!!!

Our Dear Leader has saved us from utter ruin!! If not for his brilliant economic strategies, why we'd just be cleaning up Clinton's mess instead of enjoying unprecendented prosperity! And we've never been so loved and respected abroad. Just look at the crowds that turned out in every country recently visited by pResident Bush to greet him! To the uneducated eye they may have appeared to be protestors but that is simply us misunderstanding their foreign culture, see? Over there "War Criminal" signs mean "Welcome! We love you!".

When you figure in the proof of our fabulous success in Iraq, with Baghdad blowing up all over the place, well how can one possibly be pessimistic????

11:19 and it's all good, just like I told ya:

Dow 9,670.68 +62.52 (+0.65%)
Nasdaq 1,904.82 +21.91 (+1.16%)
S&P 500 1,038.97 +7.84 (+0.76%)
10-Yr Bond 4.289% +0.024

Julie--enjoying a little parody :-)

[Barrett808]

22. How can the market possibly decide it's a "buy" day?

After the catastrophe in Iraq?

[Maeve]

23. Noon update with blather

12:00PM: Stocks opened higher on a continuation of the modestly positive tone set yesterday as well as an encouraging Durable Goods New Orders release...the data showed a modest 0.8% increase, but excluding defense the gain was 2.6% as defense orders plunged 27%...the components show an uptrend in business investment...then, October Consumer Confidence was reported at a stronger than expected 81.1...that added to the upbeat tone...now, it is all eyes on the Fed, which will announce its policy position at 2:15 ET...
there are practically no calls that the Fed will raise rates from the 41-year low of 1% on the Fed Funds target, but the market is ready to over-analyze every word in the policy statement...watch for volatility after the report...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,662.16 +54.00 (+0.56%)
Nasdaq 1,904.12 +21.21 (+1.13%)
S&P 500 1,036.38 +5.25 (+0.51%)
10-Yr Bond 4.295% +0.030

[mrsteve]

24. 1:27 - checking in with a happy market

So much for the relative sobriety of the last couple of days, now the irrational exuberance is back in spades!

Dow 9,670.83 +62.67 (+0.65%)
Nasdaq 1,904.96 +22.05 (+1.17%)
S&P 500 1,036.62 +5.49 (+0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 4.297% +0.032

[mrsteve]

25. Greenspan Fed Announcement -

Per Yahoo Finance:
"1:25PM: Market have really steadied ahead of Fed announcement...
last announcement key statement: The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. In contrast, the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds that of a rise in inflation from its already low level. The Committee judges that, on balance, the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low remains the predominant concern for the foreseeable future. In these circumstances, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period...the new statement will be compared with that one."

Hmmm...sounds like "Reply hazy, ask again later" to me.

[mrsteve]

26. 1:55 - rising after the Greenspan opera

Apparently the fat lady did not sing - everybody's still buying, driving market to highs for the day.

Dow 9,679.35 +71.19 (+0.74%)
Nasdaq 1,908.09 +25.18 (+1.34%)
S&P 500 1,037.76 +6.64 (+0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.310% +0.045

[Maeve]

27. Yep--a 2:00 spike and dip, now heading back up

Are we all doing the "Happy Happy Joy Joy" song?

Dow 9,683.20 +75.04 (+0.78%)
Nasdaq 1,910.02 +27.11 (+1.44%)
S&P 500 1,039.03 +7.90 (+0.77%)
10-Yr Bond 4.227% -0.038

[JNelson6563]

28. Sorry I missed all the action

It was my month to host our little Progressive Women's Caucus we have here, we were busy plotting the overthrow of the gubberment. :-)

4:20 and the beat goes on:


Dow 9,712.98 +104.82 (+1.09%)
Nasdaq 1,915.51 +32.60 (+1.73%)
S&P 500 1,041.76 +10.63 (+1.03%


Zowie!!

Julie

[mrsteve]

29. Closing numbers - Happy Happy Joy indeed

Dow 9,748.31 +140.15 (+1.46%)
Nasdaq 1,932.26 +49.35 (+2.62%)
S&P 500 1,046.79 +15.66 (+1.52%)
10-Yr Bond 4.189% -0.076

Wow - ya leave for a 2 1/2 hour meeting, ya come back, and everyone else is now a millionaire. :evilgrin:

See everyone in the casino tomorrow.

[mrsteve]

30. And little happy blather to add from Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Fi Updates:
"Close: Operating earnings for the third quarter for the S&P in aggregate look to come in at +22%...real GDP for the third quarter is due to be reported on Thursday at close to a 6% annual rate...now, the Fed as much as promises to keep short-term rates near 1% for "a considerable period"...bonds rally...it is no wonder that the stock market is up...today, September Durable Goods New Orders were reported up a decent +0.8%, and excluding the 27% plunge in defense orders, it was up 2.6%...business are starting to open the checkbook....October Consumer Confidence rose to 81.1 from 77.0 in August...
but the real action started after the Fed left rates unchanged at 1% and in their 2:15 ET announcement maintained the statement from last time about a need to maintain stimulative fiscal policy...it made a nice recipe for a rally...earnings weren't bad either, as a strong report from Biogen (BGEN 39.30 +2.09) ha biotechs up on the day, and two small semiconductor firms gave good guidance for the fourth quarter, so the SOX semiconductor index surged (SOX 491.11 +29.02)...it was a very broad based rally and advancers led decliners by about a 2 to 1 margin..."

Also, Halliburton is announcing earnings after market close. Fraid if I stay for those my head might explode in apoplectice rage. :mad: :grr: