Iain Duncan Smith loses 90-75

[number six]

Another one bites the dust. Hopefully oblivion follows!

[MaineDem]

1. Wow, this is a surprise!

The BBC News this morning said they expected him to succeed.

Is there a link?

[Vikingking66]

2. I''ll be damned

Who's taking his place?

[qanda]

3. No story yet, but up on Guardian's website

http://www.guardian.co.uk/

Also: You may want to alter your title to correct the spelling of Ian.

[VolcanoJen]

5. "Iain" is the correct spelling; thanks for providing the link, pbl!

:-)

VolcanoJen
DU Moderator

[qanda]

6. Sorry about that...

My bad!

[VolcanoJen]

4. "back me or sack me"

Well, wasn't Iain anti-war as well as anti-Blair? I'm not sure this is the best thing, and will probably shore up Blair support in the UK. I'd love to hear some input on this situation from our UK friends.

[roguevalley]

This is amazing.

I expected him to survive. The Tories are in a very, very bad way.

[dolstein]

8. No, Iain wasn't anti-war

NT

[VolcanoJen]

13. I struggle to understand it better.

It's as if, here, in the US, we lived in Bizarro-World, with Democrats tending to lean against the war, with Repubs in lock-step for the war.

In the UK, especially during the PM Questions, it would seem that the Tories advocate an anti-war (but especially anti-Blair) policy.

It's so damned confusing, and we're only seperated by a damned pond.

:-)

[tinnypriv]

17. Tories are pro-war

They shifted to a slightly "anti-occupation policy" position as soon as the place went to shit.

That's because they're opportunistic fucks just like Blair. If New Labour hadn't stolen all their policies they'd probably have a chance.

[bluestateguy]

24. Chirac is on the Center-Right of French politics

So is Putin in Russia. They opposed the war.

[dudeness]

18. no not anti-war

blair needed conservative votes to carry forth his war resolution after 147 labour MPs voted in the negative..

[Aidoneus]

23. Smith wasn't "anti-war", just anti-Blair

The tories were sure that THEY could do a better job of being a quisling toady for Bush's adventurism, but Blair proved that he's got that role shored up.

[samsingh]

27. Iain is not anti-war

just anti-Labor. Blair is also anti-Labor.

[MaineDem]

7. BBC link

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/3225127.stm

I guess there's quite a list of possible replacements.

[Monkey see Monkey Do]

9. Everyone's getting behind Michael Howard

who's yet another right-wing fascist. (well I'm biased, but he ain't the cuddliest of Tory politicos).

The only competition will probably now come from Ken Clark if he decides to run -- but he's screwed because the constituency party will never vote in anyone as pro-Europe as he is.

This is a good day for the left over here, as yet another nail is hammered into the Tory coffin.

[number six]

10. Oh, I hope they go for Howard

He's really awful. That would be so good!

[T_i_B]

28. "This is a good day for the left over here"

Well it was my Birthday yesterday. :evilgrin:

It looks very much like Howard as the next tory leader. Apparently even Ann bloody Widdecombe is endorsing him!

Portillo would make the better leader but the tories would never elect anyone that colourful. And all the while the tories seem to drift further and further into their own little white, upper class, elderly, home counties ghetto.

[xxqqqzme]

36. 'their own little white, upper class,

elderly, home countries ghetto.' Sounds like the konservative rethugs. Only on this side of the pond - this minority controls the wealth, hijacked the power and convinced a multitude of people they have done it 4 the good of the masses.

[T_i_B]

41. BTW, Ken Clark is not running

So it looks like an unopposed coronation for Howard.

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/story.jsp?story=459099

Kenneth Clarke set the scene for Michael Howard's coronation as Tory leader today by confirming he will not challenge for the party crown.

Mr Clarke was the last heavyweight contender to rule out standing against Mr Howard, who already has the backing of 92 out of 165 Tory MPs.

He said: "I'm not going to give up any other of my bad habits but coming second in Conservative leadership elections is something I don't intend to do.

"So I shall support whoever emerges as leader but I'm not standing myself."

[Emboldened Chimp]

11. Why was HE ousted?

and not Blair? And who will take his place?

I've got to admit that I rather liked the guy. Not for his policies, but for entertainment purposes. The pompous ass is a scream during PM's Q&A. Alas, it'll never be the same.

[legin]

12. this one snuck up on me too

A guess:

Duncan-Smith must have been bloody bad at his job for the Tories to risk a large hit in the polls so close to an election. I mean they only had to sit there and watch Labour and blair committ suicide like they have been doing for the last couple of years.

From listening to the news:
There seems to have been a major fallout between him and David Davis, Duncan-Smith sacked Davis as party chairman last year. Who the hell David Davis is I have no idea but he is one of the favourites to become the new leader.

[number six]

14. Yeah, he was totally ineffective, personality free

and bald. Look at the facts. Hair matters, sadly. Kinnock lost, Hague lost, now IDS. That's how shallow things are in our mass-media age.

[legin]

15. OK I should read the posted links

"Former party chairman David Davis has already announced his backing for shadow chancellor Michael Howard in the contest, saying he has decided to turn down requests to run himself."

Davis was the 2-1 favourite to be the next leader with the bookies, after they stopped taking bets on whether Duncan-Smith would survive a couple of days ago. Now he is not running. Perhaps the calculation is that Labour will still win the next election and Davis can replace Howard and try to win the election after that.
:shrug:

[tinnypriv]

16. DAMN!

The longer this idiot was leading the Tories the better. :D

Lets hope they pick Portillo.

[dudeness]

19. tinnypriv

who is the leadership choice most apparent or do the conservatives enter a leadership void?..and will we see the conservative party move further to the right to head off blair at the pass? (heaven forbid)

[legin]

22. A guess

This would appear to have been all worked out before hand.

The worst scenario for the conservatives would have been for Duncan-Smith to have won 90-75, which would have made him a weakened leader of a bitterly divided party, generally not good for ones election chances. One of the BBC analysts thought Duncan-smith would only get about 40 votes in this election so certain was he that Duncan-Smith was history.

The next worst scenario for the conservatives is a long drawn out acrimonious leadership contest. But one of the two front-runners comes straight out and supports the other front-runner. It will probably be suggested to the other possible candidates that they do the right thing for their party.

So Michael Howard made officially leader next week sometime and no need for a messy election involving 'the political rank and file activists'. A nice clean palace coup.

[dudeness]

25. thanks for the insight legin

I follow this closely

[legin]

26. The other thing to remember

is that blair can call a General Election whenever he wants, so if the Conservatives go in for a prolonged period of gratuitously shooting themselves in the foot, blair just calls for an election straight afterwards.

[T_i_B]

29. The leadership choice most apparent

It looks from here like it is going to be a coronation for Michael Howard, as opposed to the very messy and highly amusing contests of 1997 and 2001. Howard will certainly be more compentent that Dimwit-Smith IDS, but I still don't think that he will be able to beat Blair at the polls.

Here is a thread by Jack Rabbit for anyone wishing to get more info on the heir apparent to the tory leadership.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=615791

[number six]

30. This is very, very good news.

Howard will turn many people off of the Tories. He always comes across as sinister and uncomfortable in public and on TV. I'd put every penny i've got that he will never beat Blair.

[tinnypriv]

32. Michael Howard, former home secretary, is a shoe-in

He's pretty right-wing.

"Something of the night about him", according to one major Tory rank and file member. I think that refers to when he possibly ordered pregnant women handcuffed in prison or something.

I'll also echo what Thankfully_IB says below BTW.

Tories are in a bit of bind IMO. New Labour has stolen all their rightist policies while still throwing some red meat to the lefties.

They're also facing a growing liberal consensus on social issues like drugs, prison, discrimination etc.

As long as Blair keeps a lock on Murdoch support (or to be more accurate, has no opposition from Murdoch) he's home free (as long as the economy doesn't implode).

Doesn't make much of a difference who the Tory leader is. I suspect the immediate effect may be to right the ship and stop the Lib Dems overtaking them in the medium-term though.

[Zhade]

20. Nice parting shot, though!

The Tory leader's last-ditch line of defence was that a contest for the party would be disastrous - taking months while the government flounders over the Hutton report, foundation hospitals and the Queen's speech.

"We have the opportunity to decide whether or not we want to plunge the party into internal warfare while this government gets away with absolute murder," Mr Duncan Smith told BBC Breakfast.

[roguevalley]

21. Howard is the name that seems to come up the most. How would that

do? Also, Portillo?

[number six]

31. Latest Opinion Poll heads south for the Tories!

Poll Shows Tory Support Is Dipping


http://www.news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=2118458

[roguevalley]

33. A newscaster on the BBC referred to Howard as being from Transylvania.

I laughed.

[number six]

34. Actually, he kinda is

His dad was a Romanian Jew who fled in '39.

[tinnypriv]

35. That's thanks to the Mirror

Two quality front pages in a week. Bam!

[number six]

37. No, really. His parents were exiled Romanian Jews

This is from the Guardian

Mr Howard was the last of the Tory "Cambridge Mafia" of the 60s - which included Kenneth Clarke, John Gummer, Norman Fowler and Leon Brittan - to retire to the back benches.
He came up via Llanelli grammar school in Gorseinon, near Swansea, where his Romanian Jewish shopkeeper father had settled. At school he was one of only two Jewish pupils. The family name of Hecht was anglicised to Howard.


I don't like the guy, but this vampire / transylvanian stuff is just racist.

[tinnypriv]

38. I think a sense of humour might be required

His father was Romanian, he is a "dark character" according to some in the Tory party and the Mirror is a center-left tabloid.

So they slap some fangs on the guy, with it being HALLOWEEN and all. Big deal! :)

[number six]

39. Fair enough.

[T_i_B]

40. Are you sure that was not Graham Norton

referring to Howard as "The MP for Transylvania East" on his show last night?