US Economy Rocketed Ahead in 3rd Quarter (REUTERS)

[ahimsa]

(this reads like a GOP press release! :crazy:)

US Economy Rocketed Ahead in 3rd Quarter
October 30, 2003 12:24:00 PM ET

By Tim Ahmann

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy rocketed ahead at its fastest pace in more than 19 years in the third quarter of 2003 as consumers, their wallets fattened by tax cuts, went on a buying spree, an unexpectedly strong government report showed on Thursday.

U.S. gross domestic product surged at a 7.2 percent annual rate in the July-September period, the Commerce Department said. It was the steepest climb since the first quarter of 1984 and more than double the second quarter's 3.3 percent rate.

Three other reports on Thursday also suggested a firmer recovery was taking root -- new claims for jobless benefits and a help-wanted index suggested some stability in the labor market, while companies spent more on wages and benefits.

The jump in GDP growth, which also reflected a big gain in business spending, outstripped forecasts on Wall Street, where economists had looked for a rise closer to 6 percent.



http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20031030&ID=3018460

(looking forward to Krugman's interpretation of that report!)

[On the Road]

1. Hate to Say It, But This Sounds Like the Real Thing

We'll pay for it later in a larger debt and higher interest rates.

[Frodo]

9. How does it increase debt?

I agree it CAN lead to higher interest rates (though they stayed pretty low during Clinton's growth spurt), but it should decrease the amount of the annual deficit.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

13. Don't worry about that! Everything the Bushies have touched...

...so far has turned to crap, why not this?

[styersc]

25. THIS IS LARGELY DEFENSE SPENDING

The last time GDP figures were predicted the percentage of GDP that was Defense related was 70%.

This will be deemed good news by the GOP and will result in a short term boost in economy but this is all defecit spending that will come back to haunt us.

This is like fighting fatigue by smoking crack- we will pay for it in the end.

(Sorry about the illegal drug reference but I wanted to make Conservative Limbaugh fans feel right at home).

[lcordero]

2. it's garbage and everybody knows it

[KFC]

3. Are the bad numbers garbage too?

Or just the good ones.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

11. Let the board know when the deficit has been erased and the....

...budget surplus restored to what it was before the Squatter-in-Chief was selected to live in the White House by the Supreme Court.

And, before I forget, when do all of those jobs start to appear?

Yes, the numbers quoted in the article are good...but that's a long way from negating the bad numbers.

[Frodo]

16. True. But four more quarters of this will kill us.

It doesn't have to be 7%, but if the next four quarters also show 4%+ growth? We haven't got a chance in he11.

Remember Reagan? The numbers looked awfuly bad after about 2.5 years. By election day he won everything.

The mistake we make is tying everything to Bush. He isn't "more" responsible for ups and downs than congress is (probably less so). And the market moves in cycles regardless of who is in power.

Take a dip that was NOT Clinton's fault, but started on his watch and tie it to Bush and when the inevitible rebound happens he gets to take all the credit. They'll say things were bad when they took office and 9-11 made it worse, but their tax cuts have finally taken effect. What will we counter with? That things aren't really as good as they seem? That we get some credit for the improving economy?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

24. Excuse me, but Reagan didn't have an two ongoing wars that he had...

...already declared to be over, and he had not yet been slapped in the face with Iran-Contra.

The Squatter-in-Chief has several things between now and election day 2004 that he must already be worried about:

1) Afghanistan is getting uglier

2) Iraq is definitely getting uglier

3) Any additional conflicts that flare up in Syria, Iran, and/or North Korea will cause even more king-size headaches...or should I say dictator-size?

4) The numbers reported today may look good, but it's going to take at least 6-9 months for any of that to make any impact on spending by the lower and middle classes

5) OPEC could also cut production and that will make quite a few potential voters in the lower and middle classes very unhappy

6) Large numbers within the military are growing quite weary of the so-called "war 'gainst terra" and will choose to not reenlist...that will accelerate the need for the draft. Legislation is already in committee in both the House and Senate, and if passed, will make the misery factor shoot up by a considerable factor

7) Congress is growing quite restive about 911 documents that the White House is refusing to turn over

8) The Wilson Affair is alive and kicking...and the CIA will make sure that it continues to kick.

I could go on but my time is limited for responses to posts that are one-dimensional in nature. This time there is much more to be concerned about other than the economy.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

4. Great. When do the jobs start to trickle down to the other 95%?

[mhr]

22. Exactly, I Would Wager That Over Half Of The Growth Is Military Related

I have yet to see an increase in hiring. I think the growth comes form three places that do not mean the economy is mending.

Three economic components of current growth include:

Military Spending, 50 %
Corporate Productivity Through Downsizing, 25 %
Consumer Spending of Home Equity Through Refinancing, 25 %

In all of the above, there is very little basis for sustained growth or increased hiring.

[underpants]

5. Way to highlight the spin. We'll see if it is sustained

I certainly never hope for things to go badly just for my political wants. There are still a lot of people out of work and a lot of this spike was from military spending, like I said we'll see.

BTW-Expect full avalanche of media praise and buttkissing tonight on the box.

[Maple]

6. The only thing that's changed

is massive lay-offs, which give a temporary blip to profit statements.

The market tries to run with that, so for a short time things look good.

The basic problems are still there, but the PR is an effort at stimulating the economy by assuring everyone things are going well.

They have to do this because Christmas is coming, and they need people to spend in what used to be the biggest consumer binge of the year.

[underpants]

8. Right and these numbers will be "revised" when no one is looking

and no attention will be called to it.

[Frodo]

12. Layoffs do NOT give a blip to profit statements.

In fact it's the opposite. They give a temporary DIP to profitability due to severance costs (often substantial). Supposedly it adds to later profitability IF you only "cut dead wood". Cuts of effective employees if proably bad for business in both the short AND long runs.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

26. Wrong. I've been there and done that. Cutting headcount ...

...gives a real positive bump to a corporation's profit margin, particularly if you're dealing with significant numbers of employees. For each employee that is cut, salary, benefits, and fixed costs like utilities, leasing of equipment and space are restored to the bottom line.

Just in case you haven't noticed over the past couple of years, most companies have severely slashed their severance packages, or done away with them entirely. So, severance packages now have no real negative impact on cost.

Corporations could care less about whether or not cutting employees is bad for business. If it helps the bottom line in terms of how the investors are viewing the company, they'll do it in a heartbeat. Every company keeps an updated list of key employees...those people will be protected no matter how many others get cut.

[DemNoir]

7. Enough propaganda already

A dupe of a dupe

[Tempest]

10. The real rate is less than 4%

Remove defense spending and the effect of the falling dollar, and the figure will be much more realistic.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

15. Thank you very much for the reality check...

...a couple of the people in this thread were about to start dancing in the streets. Yikes!

[Tempest]

23. And as someone in another thread pointed out

People have been receiving tax cut checks recently.

A one time boost.

[junker]

14. Don't believe the press, read the numbers for yourself

what the press does is to print what they are told via press release. They do not do the numbers themselves. Even the gov's own numbers say this is bullshit. They show a 3.2 rate of 'growth' in the gdp y-o-y for 3rd quarter. Further, they show inflation at 3.2 per cent so we are running even with inflation for a net 'stagflation'. These numbers are not seasonally adjusted. AND ONE SHOULD NOTE THESE NUMBERS REPRESENT HEDONIC calculations with huge govt supplied fudge factors.....


also, none of the conservative boards have threads showing that even they are buying this....

only one who has chewed and swallowed this sheeit is the press/drudge.....


if this is an example of a Bush Boom, we are really flucked....

[Frodo]

19. Do you have a link on that inflation statistic?

The articles I've read have it at about half of that (just enough to remove the threat of deflation from the equation). They all considered the modest move good news.

[iam]

17. Good.

Everyone likes a good economy, but this will only be bad in the long run. High debt, high intrest rates, high inflation. This is the kind of growth Jimmy Carter had during his administration and we all saw what that did to the economy. Remember the misery index? The recession of 1980-1982?

[junker]

18. DOW up 300 points on news of Bush Boombest report in 19 years!

No, wonder why not? Could it be that they (investor/gamblers and the theives who take their money =wall street) don't believe it either?

[Spazito]

21. Ummm, that's 30 points not 300

*

[Nottingham]

20. I don't believe this AT ALL! and unless people get JOBS

it doesn't mean anything :bounce:

[TahitiNut]

27. duplicate - locking

See http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=19119

I'm locking this thread. Interested DUers are welcome to continue discussing this in the referenced thread.

Thank you for your understanding and cooperation,
TahitiNut - DU moderator