Clark Tops Edwards in SC

[Zynx]

General Wesley Clark has jumped into the lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 17% of likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina say they would vote for Clark and 10% say they would vote for North Carolina Senator John Edwards. Ballot preference for the other seven candidates remains in single digits. A month ago, Edwards was leading with 16% of the vote.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of registered voters in South Carolina saying they would definitely vote in the Democratic presidential preference primary. The interviews were conducted October 26 through 30, 2003. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

While Clark leads in ballot preference, 36% of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided.
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http://americanresearchgroup.com/sc/

[gasperc]

1. this seems significant

and totally stalls Edwards, Clark goof up though was Iowa, 3rd place there, without spending hardly any money would have pratically looked like a win. NH is pointless. How to undo the we're blowing off Iowa tackfully?

[Kahuna]

2. I'm not surprised. I've always believed..

that Clark would have a tremendous appeal with black and southern voters. Go Wes!

[Zynx]

3. If Edwards doesn't win SC, he's finished.

He absolutely must win South Carolina because he won't come close in Iowa or New Hampshire. He may have decent showings in either third or fourth places in those two states, but that's all he can really hope for unless there is a real change. If he loses to Clark in SC and does poorly in the rest of those states, he should just drop out.

[PAMod]

5. I agree.

I thought SC would be Edwards' ticket to stay in the race. He's gotta win there.

SC is also vital to Clark - certainly he has to win somewhere that day.

[Kahuna]

6. Clark will kick ass on Super Tuesday. I have no doubt....

I don't honestly believe that Super Tuesday states will let themselves be swayed by what happens in NH and Iowa. The electorate in the Super Tuesday states are very differenct than the electorates in NH and Iowa.

I also believe that Clark already has a strategy of low expectations for NH and Iowa based upon his late entry in the race. Super Tuesday states will forgive his losses in NH and Iowa and not be swayed by the so-called "momentum" of the winner/s in NH and Iowa.

[Zynx]

7. Clark needs to win SC if he doesn't place well in NH.

He also needs to win Oklahoma and atleast place well in Arizona and New Mexico.

[Kahuna]

12. Clark is doing very well in AZ and OK... Don't know...

about NM.

[SahaleArm]

18. I wonder if Richardson will be willing to endorse anyone?

*nm*

[StephNW4Clark]

20. Nope.

He's Chair of the Democratic Convention next year, so he doesn't want to make an endorsement.

[Renew Deal]

11. I also agree.

But I think Edwards is out of his league in this election. Some people here claim that he is only running because he wouldn't win reelection in NC. That sounds strange to me. Edwards is a nice guy with a good background, but he needs more time.

[Kahuna]

13. Yep. And for the same reason, it's very unlikely...

That Clark would select Edwards as his running mate. (should he prevail :7 )

Clark will need the experience of a Gephardt or Kerry to win. Gephardt seems to understand this and is not attacking Clark the way the others are.

[grannylib]

4. Glad to hear it - he impresses me

[CMT]

8. no two ways about it

if Edwards doesn't win South Carolina he will be out of it--this has to be a blow to his campaign.

[tsipple]

9. SC = Survival Candidate

South Carolina will likely decide whether Edwards or Clark survives.

I'd caution people not to read much into polls, especially these South Carolina polls. They're extremely volatile right now.

[Zynx]

10. Good point.

The South Carolina numbers will be largely determined by strength in IA and NH when those dates roll around(mainly NH). If Dean sweeps both, he might be a surprisingly strong contender down there, but I would imagine it will still be a place where Clark polls strong. I don't know if Edwards will or not.

[Renew Deal]

14. SC is where McCain was almost cooked.

He was finished off a week later. He might have won the whole thing if he won SC.

[Freddie Stubbs]

15. This is really bad news for Edwards

If he can't win in SC, he can't win anywhere.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

16. THIS IS HUGE

God, I hope the General keeps it up and blows everyone out in SC! If he can keep everyone else under 15%, I think he gets the entirety of the delegates, doesn't he?

DTH

[goobergunch]

17. Correct, at least in the at-large delegates.

Of course, other candidates could still pick up a few district-level delegates.

This is a good sign for Clark and a very bad sign for Edwards.

[blindpig]

19. what about trade?

Seems to me that the dems strongest card in the south is trade. We're losing decent jobs by the thousands every quarter. The only dem who adequately addresses this issue is Kucinich. True, some of his other positions will be a hard sell in dixie, but jobs is jobs!