NYT: Hospitals Short on Ventilators if Bird Flu Hits

[DeepModem Mom]

Hospitals Short on Ventilators if Bird Flu Hits
By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
Published: March 12, 2006


No one knows whether an avian flu virus that is racing around the world might mutate into a strain that could cause a human pandemic, or whether such a pandemic would cause widespread illness in the United States. But if it did, public health experts and officials agree on one thing: the nation's hospitals would not have enough ventilators, the machines that pump oxygen into sick patients' lungs.

Right now, there are 105,000 ventilators, and even during a regular flu season, about 100,000 are in use. In a worst-case human pandemic, according to the national preparedness plan issued by President Bush in November, the country would need as many as 742,500.

To some experts, the ventilator shortage is the most glaring example of the country's lack of readiness for a pandemic.

"This is a life-or-death issue, and it reflects everything else that's wrong about our pandemic planning," said Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University. "The government puts out a 400-page plan, but we don't have any ventilators and there isn't much chance we're going to get them."

A typical hospital ventilator costs $30,000, and hospitals, operating on thin profit margins, say they cannot afford to buy and store hundreds of units that may never be used. Cheaper alternatives can be deployed in a crisis, but doctors say they are grossly inadequate to deal with a flu pandemic....


http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/12/national/12vent.html

[Benhurst]

1. Hey, mass burials are cheaper by far than ventilators. This

is BushAmerica. The profit margin rules. Get with the program.

[sam sarrha]

20. New Zealand has already done the studies for where to mass Bury

[sam sarrha]

21. Homeland Security has approved vacuum sealed body bag machines at $50,000

each to make transportation easier to mass graves, so we dont need no

Stinking ventilators

[kestrel91316]

30. Here I suspect we will just let them lie where they die, on the streets,

in their beds, in hospital waiting rooms...........

The Americans who aren't felled by it will be too chicken and lazy to do their civic duty and burn or bury the dead.

[sam sarrha]

39. you mean like they did in NOLA aafter Katrina

[kestrel91316]

45. Well, that. But WAAAYYYYY worse.

[knitter4democracy]

2. This is what Hubby says all the time.

He's a traditional internist who follows his patients to the hospital, and he says there's no way our local hospital could handle a serious outbreak, let alone any pandemic. They're looking into how to fix that, though, so he's a bit calmer about it.

I don't know why they the MSM is hyping this, as it's been a concern in the medical community for decades--something they always watch and try to get people to plan for. Just talk to an infectious disease doc to get a more historical perspective.

[DeepModem Mom]

5. Thanks for this info, k4d! nt

[Mel]

3. you know it's real hard for me

to get all that upset with the lack of ventilators when we don't even have Universal Health Care for all.
Also, a lot of Americans would be bankrupt if they suffered a major illness even with insurance and that's already happening to people.
How many premature deaths are suffered due to lack of health care in this country?

Bird flu, oh well, I don't expect the Bush* cable to do anything other than waste a bunch of our money to not really deal with our true problem lack of Universal Health Care here in the USA.

[knitter4democracy]

42. Too freakin' many.

If only we had a real medical system here instead of the broken thing we're just limping along with. *sigh*

You're quite right.

[goclark]

4. Rumsfeld should use his millions to provide

ventilators.
He made millions off of the bird flu.


Isn't that a conflict of interest?

[Lindsay]

7. With BushCo, there is no such thing

as conflict of interest. Profit for yourself and your friends is all that matters.

[TexasLawyer]

28. Rumsfeld should invest in an obscure ventilator co.

which can then be purchased by Carlisle group, which can then get a choice government contract "out of the blue," once its lobbyists funnel millions of $ to the RNC. Then we can all have ventilators and everyone will be happy!

Right?

[SheilaT]

6. Hyping the bird flu

which may or may not (and my bets are on the latter) transmute so as to infect humans readily, overlooks many more important things. Such as (aside from the lack of universal health care in this country which really is the number one problem) hospitals and various emergency services are only configured to handle a relatively low number of cases. Even a multi-car crash which sends a dozen or more victims to hospitals can overwhelm an ER. A plane crash with many injured survivors means some of them wait hours for any medical care beyond the most basic.

Of course, if hyping the phony bird flu pandemic means those in charge actually pay attention and do something about these problems, then it will have been worthwhile.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

12. "Hyping the phony bird flu pandemic"?? If being prepared for....

...a global pandemic of any kind is the same as being "hyped", so be it.

I'm always amazed at the number of people who want to believe that Avian Flu is an hoax perpetrated by some unknown entity.

Even the 1918 Influenza had to mutate to a form that was easily passed from human to human...but it eventually did just that, didn't it?

[SheilaT]

16. It's not a hoax per se, I know that.

But there's an awful lot of hype in the claims that it will mutate and pass to humans. That such a thing will happen is being treated as a given, not the mere possibility that it is.

I understand about flu and where it comes from and how it mutates and the fact that in China pigs and fowl are raised side by side in close proximity to humans, allowing the flu virus to be passed back and forth and to mutate steadily which is exactly why we have yearly flu season.

But so far the avian flu is showing no signs of being easily transmissible to humans, and as someone else has pointed out, in a world population of over 6 billion, 95 people have died from this disease. Meanwhile, in the same number of years those 95 people have died, how many thousands and millions have passed from other causes, many of which are curable or treatable?

And conditions in 1918 were somewhat (by which I mean very) different from today. The two main factors are this: Thousands of young men who had never been exposed to many other people (farm boys from places like Kansas) and so had an immune system that wasn't particularly strong, were gathered up and crammed into close and unsanitary army camps. Many of them died from such things as measles and chicken pox before the flu started. And then, despite pleas on the part of doctors who understood what was going on, this country continued to ship vast numbers of men who were now harboring the flu virus overseas in crowded troop ships. None of that is happening today.

Another aspect of what happened then is that a very large percentage of our doctors had been conscripted and were serving the military, either here or overseas, and those left behind were often ill-educated, products of medical schools in the 19th century (which had since been closed) which gave no true medical education to speak of. Some didn't even understand or believe in the germ theory of disease.

I also maintain that simple hand-washing, something not as widely practiced or even available (think of all the places with no running water back then) is a factor no one is willing to consider. Every time I bring it up someone tries to shut me down by citing the reports of people who in public restrooms don't wash their hands or don't wash them properly after using the toilet. Nonetheless, routine hand washing is far better established today that it was nearly 90 years ago, and that alone makes a difference.

[Frank Cannon]

37. B-B-B-B-But...the Spanish flu had a mortality rate 25 TIMES...

the rate of previous strains of influenza!!!!!!!!!!!

Which brought the total mortality rate, in 1918, to... 2.5%!!!!!! AAAAAAAAAAGGGGHHH!!

(faints)


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(water in face)

Well, I feel better now. And I DO appreciate the unbridled panic of those of those on this board who feel that this bird flu will put us all into some sort of post-apocalyptic, Planet-of-the-Apes kind of world. If there's anything I've learned by participating in the Democratic Underground forums, there will ALWAYS be people who look at the glass as 97.5% empty.

[leesa]

8. "..racing around the world"??? Must be a slow race.

Please be afraid at all times. Pay no attention to the dictatorship taking place.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

13. Please continue to make sarcastic remarks....

...to make yourself look all-important in the face of a disease that has already established hundreds of variants that is infecting birds of all types as well as some mammals.

[Frank Cannon]

24. MLD, feel free to be JUST as bug-eyed terrified as you want

Neither I, nor anyone here are stopping you. If you want to lose a few, or several, or every single night of sleep until the death-bird that's going to destroy life as we know it wings its way over US shores, go right ahead! It's a free country (or at least it used to be).

But please, please quit with the high-and-mighty attitude and insulting, hit-and-run posts for those of us who are more than just a little bit skeptical. We've been lied to before MANY TIMES, you know. (You DO know what your DU name is, don't you?) And when all is said and done, I really believe we all have a far greater chance of being killed on the freeway today than dying of bird flu, and a great many of us never worry about that either.

[sam sarrha]

26. we are not being Bug-Eyed, we are having a civilized conversation, i

figure where you come from that may not me the way things are done.

but welcome and live and learn..

you are the one calling names and getting excited here..

I was a lab technician and did taxonomy on bacteria. if you want to harshly invalidate my input as "BUG-EYED"... then you are the extremist and are cramming the agenda here..

i suggest you hang around and learn some etiquette, please

a 'Bigot' is someone who believes something on FAITH and is intolerant to others input who have information/evidence to the contrary of their Faith.

as a biologist i have studied this, the Swine Flu was actually a BIRD flu that infected Pigs as a carrier, this current Flu is spread world wide by migrating birds and it infects CATS.. who become carriers... it has already crossed over to Mammals, and is just a small step from there to primates.

if the virus had never passed to a different family of animal.. i would not be that worried, but would still be cautious.

no one here is pulling out their hair.. this is called a 'discussion' in non freeper society

[Frank Cannon]

36. You and I have no beef, sam

Media_Lies_Daily and I have a bit of a "history". I'm not even quite sure why you even responded to this post.

But again, be as afraid as you want to be. I certainly couldn't care less. But there ARE people here who choose not to be scared, and who are more than a bit skeptical given the last five or so years of history, so just let it be. I know there's nothing you can tell me that will make me change my mind, and there's nothing that I can tell you that will make you change yours.

And there we part ways. :shrug:

[sam sarrha]

40. i am NOT scared, but i am staying informed..you keep putting that on people

[Frank Cannon]

41. I'm staying informed too

I'm just drawing far different conclusions.

[sam sarrha]

22. the Renaissance was caused by 1/2 the population dying and the other 1/2

getting twice as rich..

[global1]

9. What 6 Billion People On This Planet And 95 Are Suspected To Have....

died from bird flu. Hmmmmm.

I think the ones that really have to worry are the birds that are being killed.

[SheilaT]

10. Bingo!

The bigger worry ought to be that a large enough number of wild birds will be killed to adversely impact the population. Many (most?) birds eat insects, and if all of a sudden the insect-eaters are gone, the insects will multiply like crazy and then . . . crops will be eaten, trees will be infested to the point where they die, diseases will be spread.

They're simply not paying attention to the right danger.

[NJmaverick]

11. THere are oxygen powered ventalators

$40 a piece. They are disposable. The ventalator issue is a non issue.

[goclark]

14. Can we, should we buy our own?

[NJmaverick]

18. No if you need a respirator

You need to be in a hospital. The real danger in pandemic flu outbreak isn't a lack of repirators. It's a lack of surge capacity in our hospital system.

[goclark]

25. I get it

but here in Los Angeles County, without a bird flu problem as yet, ambulances are being turned away from hospitals.

There is no more room for patients now.

What would happen with bird flu on top of that issue.

[rainbow4321]

34. And you know the involved area would be quarrantined

So it's not like they will be able to divert ambulances to another city very easily.
The facility I work at (in Texas) gets full with ANY weather change from all the chronic lung/heart patients who take a turn for the worse..then we have a constant flow of the nursing home patients (in their 80's, 90's) who never really get better, they just get shuffled back and forth between facilities. What happens to them when our acute facilities are full?

[goclark]

35. For sure we won't have our own traveling

ambulance, like Cheney, that is able to take care of "other wounded" and not be commanded to report the incident for 24 Drunk hours.

[kestrel91316]

31. Thank you. At least SOMEBODY gets it.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

15. How many oxygen powered ventilators are available today...

...and how many more can be produced on short notice should a pandemic begin to take place?

[NJmaverick]

17. They are readily available

I can tell you I spoke to someone about these things. One small hospital in North Jersey has about a hundred of them on hand.

[sam sarrha]

19. if production is outsourced, will they send them or keep them for their people

[kestrel91316]

32. Ventilators don't run themselves, either. The comatose patient on the

ventilator needs a great deal of highly skilled nursing care.......

[rainbow4321]

23. Hospitals will be short of everything and everyONE

Including the nurses needed to run those vents. Hospitals run short staffed now, imagine what it will be like with 1/2 the staff out sick.
Isolation rooms will be another problem..and with the facility taken over by flu patients, there won't be any room for other patients from the community who need to be in the hospital.
Our city has around 700 hospital beds (3 hospitals within city limits)..it has a pop. of 250,000. The mayor released a study not long ago saying that if a flu epidemic hits we are all screwed..thousands will go without being admitted due lack of bed space. It was kind of a "no shit, idiot" study.

[SheilaT]

27. and it's not just a flu epidemic that could

cause a breakdown. 700 beds for 250,000. I wonder if that's a typical percentage. At any given time how many of those beds are already occupied? How many people in an hour or twelve or thirty-six can the emergency rooms actually handle? It wouldn't take much more than a relatively small but severe flu outbreak to overwhelm your hospitals. Or food poisoning at some gathering of a couple thousand people.

The reality is, we can't build hospitals or emergency services explicitly for the worst-case scenarios. We have to build and staff for the normal run of things, and do various kinds of crisis training -- which many cities and hospitals seem to do a good job of. Shortly before the United DC-10 that crashed in Sioux City Iowa, an emergency drill involving a major plane crash had been held in that area, and as a result all of the emergency services were well prepared for what actually happened.

[kestrel91316]

33. And can't you JUST WAIT 'til a significant percentage of

the healthcare providers go down with the flu??? Dead doctors and dead nurses don't provide a very high level of care, I don't think.

[knitter4democracy]

43. Our city came to the same conclusion.

We only have a few ICU beds, and those are always full as it is. One of our pulmonary groups is horrible (my hubby never refers to them after finding out the two main partners have both been censured--one three times--by the state medical board), so they'll kill more patients as it is.

There's a real concern about this in the medical community and has been for years. My hubby's just glad that people are starting to pay attention and actually talk about planning for anything like an outbreak or epidemic. AIDS took us all by suprise, and we can't let that happen again.

[kestrel91316]

29. also short on hospital beds for the critical patients, and nurses,

and medications and everything else needed to keep the healthcare system functioning if we get hit with a H5N1 human pandemic..............

(crickets chirping)

[graywarrior]

38. Gee, if you are in the hospital and live through the pandemic

but you don't have insurance, the hospitals can legally charge you 3 times as much as they'd charge an insurance company because you don't have insurance. What a killing, in more than one way!

[Javaman]

44. I always wondered how they fit their beaks in those things...nt